STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday November 8, 2007

[UpInArms]

Source: du

Thursday November 8, 2007

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 440 LONG DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2487 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2209 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE =2170
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 10
Enron execs conveniently deceased = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES


AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON November 7, 2007

Dow... 13,300.02 -360.92 (2.64%)
Nasdaq... 2,748.76 -76.42 (2.70%)
S&P 500... 1,475.62 -44.65(2.94%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.334% 1.023
Gold future... 831.80 +1.10





GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie



PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions


(UIA - just filling in for Ozy!)

Read more: DU

[UpInArms]

1. Today's Market WrapUp - Gold's Rise Goes Beyond the Dollar's Demise

Currencies are first and foremost relative prices — in essence, they are measures of the intrinsic value of one economy versus another. On that basis, the world has had no compunction in writing down the value of the United States over the past several years. The dollar, relative to the currencies of most of America’s trading partners, is off about 20 percent from its early 2002 peak. Recently it has hit new lows against the Euro and a high-flying Canadian currency, likely a harbinger of more weakness to come…

Why worry about a weaker dollar? The United States imported $2.2 trillion of goods and services in 2006. A sharp drop in the dollar makes those items considerably more expensive — the functional equivalent of a tax hike on consumers. It could also stoke fears of inflation — driving up long-term interest rates and putting more pressure on financial markets and the economy, exacerbating recession risks. Optimists may draw comfort from the vision of an export-led renewal arising from a more competitive dollar. Yet history is clear: no nation has ever devalued its way into prosperity (Emphasis added).

<snip>

The above excerpts paint a clear picture of what is going on with the dollar’s slide and the jump in commodities, with oil and gold taking center stage. Gold is at multi decade highs and is perhaps only days away from an all-time nominal high.

The financial media are trying to paint the picture that the rise in gold is purely from the slide in the dollar, and nothing could be further from the truth, as the dollar has slid 6% over the past three months while gold has risen 22.5%. Thus, gold’s advancement is nearly four times the dollar’s percentage decline, indicating the dollar’s fall only explains part of the rise in gold.

Figure 3. 3-Month Performance (%)



...more...

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[nightrider767]

56. Thanks

I love that last graph showing gold and the dollars inverse relationship.

I also find very notable, that the value of the dollar is something they can't fake like un-employment figures or deficit spending. It's very telling.

Man, I wished I would have dumped my portfolio last week. I think I'll sell today on this weakness. It's not the way to trade stocks, but seems like everyday something happens to destroy the rally. I think the party's over and that this is the start of the official bear market that will be with us for the next year or so.

But heck, let the dang markets tumble. That's the natural thing. Let them fall as far as conditions call for.

That's what markets do. It's part of the cycle.

[Karenina]

93. Addendum to the cartoon, offered w/o comment...

[UpInArms]

2. Today's Report:

Nov 8 8:30 AM
Initial Claims 11/03
market expects 320K
briefing.com expects 325K
last week's report 327K

[UpInArms]

15. Initial Claims in @ 317,000 - last week rev'd up 3,000

08. U.S. 4-week avg. continuing jobless claims rise to 2.55 mln
8:30 AM ET, Nov 08, 2007 - 3 minutes ago

09. U.S. continuing jobless claims down 4,000 to 2.58 mln
8:30 AM ET, Nov 08, 2007 - 3 minutes ago

10. U.S. 4-week avg. initial jobless claims up 2,000 to 329,750
8:30 AM ET, Nov 08, 2007 - 3 minutes ago

11. U.S. weekly initial jobless claims fall 13,000 to 317,000
8:30 AM ET, Nov 08, 2007 - 3 minutes ago

[UpInArms]

3. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 75.510 Change -0.103 (-0.14%)

When Will the US Dollar Bottom?

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/topheadline/When_Will_the_US_Dollar_1194476481212.html

In the third quarter of 2007, US GDP registered a gain of 3.9%. On the other hand EZ GDP for the same period is expected to grow at only 2.5%. On the employment front US Non-Farm Payrolls printed at 166K nearly twice the anticipated rate of 88K while unemployment rate has remained at a low 4.7%.

Meanwhile in EZ unemployment while improving continues to hover at 7.3%. Finally despite two rounds of rate cuts US short term interest rates remain 50bp higher than those of the Euro-zone.

Given this set of economic statistics, how is it possible that the dollar now finds itself at record lows against the euro? The pair hit 1.4700 in overnight trade, and is now within striking distance of the 1.5000 figure. The answer to that question lies with the US housing sector, and more specifically with its impact on the US financial sector. Furthermore, these problems may be structural in nature and could weigh on the dollar for months to come.

The Fall of Housing

The collapse of housing has been an ongoing story in the US economy for well over a year. Housing statistics have been nothing short of disaster as new home sales have contracted to 770K annual run rate, almost half of it peak of 1389K units in July of 2005. Existing home sales also saw a massive plunge as volume decline to 5.04M units from 7.21M in September of 2005. Yet the housing sector, though clearly in a recession, is only directly responsible for just 5% of US GDP. So why are housing woes having such a massive impact on the US dollar?

Collateralized Debt Obligations – The Unknown Risk

During the peak years of the housing bubble, credit standards in the US mortgage industry were loosened considerably. Armed with adjustable rate mortgages, financial institutions extended nearly a trillion dollars worth of loans to very risky creditors. Furthermore, all of there mortgage loans were packaged into securities and sold to investors as fixed income instruments known as CDOs – Collateralized Debt Obligations. As interest rates rose and housing values plummeted, many of the mortgages holders during the 2004-2006 period began to default on their loans sending the value of the CDOs markedly lower.

...more...

What Does the Federal Reserve think About the Dollar's Weakness?

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/bio1/What_Does_the_Federal_Reserve_1194472337827.html

Being short US dollars has been the best trade in the currency market this year because it has fallen against everything in sight. Today, it dropped to a record low against the Euro and Canadian dollar and multi-decade lows against the British pound and Australian dollar. Even though our targets of 2.10 in the GBP/USD and 90 cents in USD/CAD have been reached, our targets of 1.50 in the EUR/USD and 1.0 in the AUD/USD have not. The latest acceleration in dollar weakness was triggered by comments from China’s Cheng Siwei who hinted that the Asian Giant may be diversifying their massive reserves out of “weaker currencies and into stronger ones.” Although Cheng Siwei tried to retract his comments shortly afterwards by saying that he did not mean China will buy more Euros, the damage was done. So how does the Fed feel about the latest dollar weakness? According to Atlanta Fed President Lockhart, the dollar’s decline is “manageable.” Other Fed officials speaking today were also not worried. Both Mishkin and Poole felt that the affect on inflation from the weak dollar was limited. Although the dollar’s weakness is inflationary, the US also needs a weaker currency to boost growth. General Motors reported one of its biggest quarterly losses ever while Toyota reported the sixth straight year of record setting profits. We are sure that the US auto manufacturer is not happy about being trumped by its Japanese competitor and further dollar weakness is exactly what GM needs to help regain its edge. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is scheduled to deliver a testimony to the Joint Economic tomorrow and his comments can easily exacerbate or reverse today’s decline in the US dollar. Unfortunately I do not expect him to say anything groundbreaking since they are stuck between a rock and a hard place. On the one hand inflation is a serious problem with the US dollar weakening and oil prices not far from $100 a barrel, but on the other hand the banking sector is prone to further subprime losses. As a result, there really isn’t much that the Federal Reserve can do so they will probably sit tight, watch incoming economic data and buy time before their next monetary policy meeting on December 11th. For more on the chance of the EUR/USD hitting 1.50, see our special report.

...more...

[UpInArms]

12. Dollar teeters near record lows

http://www.reuters.com/article/hotStocksNews/idUSKIM17880720071108

LONDON (Reuters) - The dollar teetered close to its all-time lows against the euro on Thursday as the market waited to see whether the European Central Bank would voice concern about the sharp rally in the single currency.

The ECB is widely expected to announce no change in its 4.0 percent interest rate later on Thursday, so all eyes will be on what President Jean-Claude Trichet says about the conflicting challenges of euro strength and a jump in inflation.

Meanwhile investors remained perturbed by expectations that the Federal Reserve could cut rates again next month, further reducing the dollar's yield appeal, with stock futures already pointing to a weak start on Wall Street.

On Wednesday, Morgan Stanley (MS.N: Quote, Profile, Research) said it took a $3.7 billion loss from its subprime mortgage exposure. And General Motors Corp (GM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) reported its biggest ever quarterly net loss of $39 billion, adding to fears the U.S.'s credit problems could be spreading to the wider economy and hurting growth.

"That drip feed of bad news for the dollar is likely to continue right through the Christmas and New Year period," said Adam Myers, market strategist at Credit Suisse.

...more...

(emphasis mine)

[Ghost Dog]

27. Dollar cuts losses as Trichet does not signal rate hike

http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20071108:MTFH55795_2007-11-08_14-15-02_N08375046&type=comktNews&rpc=44

NEW YORK, Nov 8 (Reuters) - The dollar trimmed losses against the euro on Thursday after the European Central Bank left interest rates steady and did not signal an imminent interest rate hike. The dollar was also cheered by a report showing that new applications for U.S. jobless aid fell unexpectedly last week, declining for the third successive week, suggesting that the labor market remained relatively healthy.

ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said the central bank stood ready to counter upside inflation risks in the euro zone, and sound economic fundamentals support a favorable medium-term outlook.

"Trichet's remarks translate to a wait-and-see attitude, and all other things being equal, are on the dovish side. The longer the ECB waits, the more likely growth is to slow and the less likely is a further rate increase," said Brian Dolan, chief FX strategist, Forex.com, in Bedminster, New Jersey.

The euro traded up 0.2 percent at $1.4665<EUR=>, after touching a session peak of $1.4679 earlier. It surged to an all-time high of $1.4730 on Wednesday, according to Reuters data. The dollar index <.DXY>, which measures its value against a basket of six major currencies, was down 0.2 percent at 75.464, off its record low of 75.077 touched on Wednesday.

/..

[Ghost Dog]

30. Trichet:

http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?StoryId=1a6f49f4-19a1-4eab-aa2a-32dfcffcfc3a

FRANKFURT (Dow Jones)--Very sharp foreign-exchange rate fluctuations aren't welcome, European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said Thursday.

"I said earlier, brutal moves are never welcome," Trichet said at a press conference, after the ECB left key interest rates unchanged. He was referring to his remarks in January 2004, which stemmed the rise of the euro at the time. Wednesday, the euro reached an all-time high of $1.4705.

Trichet said the council had noted the stance of U.S. authorities of a strong dollar being in the U.S. interest. Recent developments have shown that "it is even clearer that a strong dollar is in the U.S.'s interest," Trichet said.

He also noted that the Group of Seven leading industrial nations "explicitly sent a message to a number of currencies, to emerging markets, including the Chinese currency," Trichet said.

Trichet reiterated that exchange rates are only one of many factors considered by the Governing Council in determining policy.

He said upward inflation risks prevail in the euro zone and need very close monitoring. "(The ECB) stands ready to counter upside risks to price stability as required by our mandate," Trichet said, adding that recent data have fully confirmed inflation risks that the council had identified.

Trichet repeated that the ECB Governing Council requires more time to gauge the effects of financial market turbulence before drawing policy conclusions. "The ongoing reappraisal of risk in financial markets has led to further uncertainty," Trichet said, adding that the ECB will pay great attention to market developments. Last month, he reiterated that financial market turbulence made it necessary for policymakers to "gather additional information and examine new data before drawing further conclusions for monetary policy," prompting most economists to predict that the ECB would maintain a wait-and-see stance until next year.

Trichet said the council will focus on upward inflation risks, and consider downward risks to growth only in how this may affect inflation.

He repeated that the council has only one needle in its compass, which is price stability.

/...

[Ghost Dog]

34. FX – EUR/USD

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx_reports/cross_markets_data_reaction/EUR_USD__US_Inflation_Could_Prevent_1194531737465.html

Broad based weakness in the greenback has allowed EUR/USD to tear higher, with records being accomplished daily. Recently, comments from a Chinese official suggesting that the government would diversify their $1.4 trillion in FX reserves away from US dollar sent EUR/USD spiking to 1.4729. Furthermore, hawkish commentary by ECB President Trichet has helped underpin a bid tone for the pair, but price action for the pair remains very much a “US story.” On Friday, the US import price index is expected to rise significantly, which could bring the inflation issue to the forefront once again. Indeed, with price pressures steadily building, the Federal Reserve may not be able to cut rates further without undermining their price stability mandate. Under normal circumstances, the US dollar would perhaps rally on the news. While there is potential for EUR/USD to pull back to the 1.4550 level by this week’s close, extremely dour sentiment on the greenback and a forecasted drop in the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence survey at 10:00 EST may simply lead EUR/USD to test 1.4700 once again, with sharp gains targeting 1.4785.

/...

[Ghost Dog]

36. Dollar extends losses on Bernanke growth comments

http://investing.reuters.co.uk/news/articleinvesting.aspx?rpc=401&type=usDollarRpt&storyID=2007-11-08T150957Z_01_N08106886_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-FOREX-UPDATE-6-URGENT.XML

NEW YORK, Nov 8 (Reuters) - The dollar extended losses against the euro on Thursday after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said U.S. economic growth would remain sluggish, with the housing market expected to slump further.

The euro traded near session highs at $1.47 <EUR=>. Against the yen, the dollar fell 0.3 percent to 112.53.

[UpInArms]

43. achieving new lows - 75.292

Last trade 75.292 Change -0.321 (-0.42%)

Settle Time 15:00 Open 75.595

Previous Close 75.613 High 75.651

Low 75.258 2007-11-08 10:13:31, 30 min delay

52wk High 85.7 52wk High Date 2006-11-17

52wk Low 75.077 52wk Low Date 2007-11-07

[DemReadingDU]

51. 52wk Low 75.077 52wk Low Date 2007-11-07

wow

[Buttercup McToots]

4. JK Galbraiths history of the 1929 crash.

Below is an interesting section from chapter VII of JK Galbraiths history of the 1929 crash.
Found it on http://bullnotbull.com/bull/node/52 (a very interesting read as well).

#####
A common feature of all these earlier troubles was that having happened, they were over. The worst was reasonably recognizable as such.

The singular feature of the great crash of 1929 was that the worst continued to worsen. What looked one day like the end proved on the next day to have been only the beginning. Nothing could have been more ingeniously designed to maximize the suffering, and also to insure that as few as possible escaped the common misfortune. The fortunate speculator who had funds to answer the first margin call presently got another and equally urgent one, and if he met that, there would be still another. In the end, all the money he had was extracted from him and lost. The man with the smart money, who was safely out of the market when the first crash came, naturally went back in to pick up bargains...The bargains then suffered a ruinous fall. Even the man who waited out all of October and all of November, who saw the volume of trading return to normal and saw Wall Street become as placid as a produce market, and who then bought common stocks, would see their value drop to a third or a fourth of the purchase price in the next twenty-four months. The Coolidge bull market was a remarkable phenomenon. The ruthlessness of its liquidation was, in its own way, equally remarkable...
:eyes:

[AnneD]

21. Good read....

:thumbsup:

It's important to know your history-now more than ever. It is not so much that history will repeat it's self exactly, but you can have clues to help you decide for yourself.

[Hugin]

29. Listen up, all you bargain bulls out there...

This is indeed a risky time for the small investor.

[nightrider767]

58. Bargain Shoppers Beware

I would guess that the market makers and the big fund managers have some way to generate rallies in the declining cycle.

After a good day on the DOW people start getting more confidence in the market and buy in. But since the rally was orchestrated, they buy into real weakness and the high rollers take that opportunity to make a quick exit, leaving the bargain hunters holding the bag.

When this market corrects/crashes it's going to be devastating. Never in history have so many Americans relied on that money for their retirements.

[bain_sidhe]

75. A couple of illustrative graphs

Taken from Kevin Phillip's book, Wealth and Democracy

The first one is a chart of "insider sales" in the lead up to the "tech crash," the second is the purchases by ordinary people during the same period. (Actually, the graphs cover different periods, so the relevant "same period" in each graph is outlined in red):




Bargin hunters beware, indeed!

[nightrider767]

78. Yepper, I knew it!

Those scumbags. Like vultures. But this time it's gonna be bigger and affect more families. They say that rats are the first to jump off of a sinking ship, and this the is perfect example of that. Count on CNBC and that load-mouth Kramer to be supplying plenty of cover fire for this exodus, while the really, really, wealthy skedaddle back to their gated mansions...

People think their money disappears on Wall Street. They need to realized, never a dime's been lost. Every penny you lose goes into someone else's pocket.

[Demeter]

96. It's Deja Vu All Over Again---Yogi Berra

[UpInArms]

5. Oil resumes march to $100

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20071108/bs_nm/markets_oil_dc

LONDON (Reuters) - Oil recouped early losses to resume its march towards the $100-milestone on Thursday as resurfacing worries of tight winter supplies and continuing dollar weakness put the brakes on some early profit-taking.

By 6:02 a.m. EST, U.S. crude for December delivery stood 83 cents up at $97.20.

London Brent crude was 94 cents up at $94.18 a barrel, off lows of $92.97.

Crude had dropped earlier on Thursday on more than $1 amid concerns of weak U.S. oil demand and falling stock markets and reversing some of the gains that had carried it to a peak of $98.62, the latest in a succession of all-time highs.

"(It's a case of) take a step back in order to take a bigger leap forward....The reasons why we got here haven't really changed," noted Harry Tchlinguirian, analyst at BNP Paribas.

Oil prices have surged nearly 40 percent in under three months as a weaker dollar, robust global petroleum demand and slimmer oil supplies attracted huge speculative investment, but trade has become increasingly volatile as it approaches $100.

...more...

[UpInArms]

6. Wall Street and dollar weigh down Asia

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ft/20071108/bs_ft/fto110820070429482388

The falling dollar, more subprime-related bad news and a grim overnight close on Wall Street set the mood for falls of two to five per cent on major Asia-Pacific stock markets on Tuesday. Even Chinese markets, often immune to large swings elsewhere in Asia, fell by nearly five per cent.

The Morgan Stanley Capital International Asia-Pacific Index had slumped 2.8 per cent to 162.71 by 3:24pm in Tokyo, Bloomberg reported, its biggest decline since August 17.

"Despite the fact there is a lot of decoupling of Asia from developed economies in North America and Europe, that doesn't mean that our capital markets have decoupled," said Ivan Leung, chief investment strategist for Asia at JPMorgan Private Bank in Hong Kong. "It shows that Asian markets are not immune to what happens in America."

He said Thursday's falls weren't as big as the past performance of Asian markets following big falls in the US might predict. "In the past they have been seen as a high-risk, high-beta markets but what we have seen in recent weeks is Asian markets staying flat when the US falls, or not falling as much. They have become a bit of a safe haven."

The Tokyo stock market fell for its fifth consecutive day, with the benchmark Nikkei sliding 2.3 per cent to 15,723.97, its lowest level in two months. The broader Topix dropped 2.8 per cent to 1,512.60.

Most sectors were awash in red ink, with the exception of mining and paper and pulp.

...more...

[nightrider767]

60. People always expected the Chinese markets to crash

Because of their inexperience in having a stock market, because of corruption in China and for a ton of other reasons.

But I always knew that when China falls, it will because our crappy markets will drag it down. The Chinese have been trying to broaden their markets so they weren't that reliant on the US. But they're not quite there yet. SO when we fall they fall.

[Buttercup McToots]

7. SCARY NUMBERS!

Aside from Massive GM writedowns, Here is the real reason the stock market tanked yesterday

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Pub...icCalendar.htm


Nov 07 08:30 Productivity-Prel Q3 4.9% 2.7% 3.1% 2.2% 2.6%
Nov 07 10:00 Wholesale Inventories Sep 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.7% 0.1%
Nov 07 10:30 Crude Inventories 11/02 -821K NA NA -3894K
Nov 07 15:00 Consumer Credit Sep $3.7B $14.0B $8.5B $15.4B $12.2B

Sept wholesale inventories are up (people arent buying)
Crude inventories are Down

But LOOK AT Sept CONSUMER CREDIT: a mere $3.7 Billion increase in Sept--Abysmal--Lowest reading of the year!! (THE CREDIT MARKETS ARE TIGHT, PEOPLE ARE ALREADY STRAPPED, CREDIT STANDARDS ARE TIGHTENING AND CONSUMERS ARE STARTING TO PULL BACK). This $3.7B increase compares to a $10B average per month over the last 12 months.


Category Sep Aug Jul Jun May
Total Credit $3.7 bln 15.4 13.0 10.4 5.5
Revolving 3.4 7.1 6.7 5.3 8.8
Nonrevolving 0.4 8.3 6.3 5.1 -3.3

THESE ARE SCARY NUMBERS!

[Buttercup McToots]

8. The Problem Everyone Else Wants

http://www.dollarcollapse.com/iNP/view.asp?ID=61

The Problem Everyone Else Wants

John Rubino
11/7/2007
Here we go. Gold and silver are soaring, financial stocks are tanking, heads are rolling on Wall Street, and the Fed’s creditability is melting like a popsicle on a hot summer sidewalk. This is very bad for most of the world, but a once-in-a-lifetime party for the handful of people who put themselves on the right side of these trends by loading up on gold and shorting the banks and brokers. If you’re one of them, nicely done!

But the ride’s not over. Now you have the problem everyone else wants: Massive paper profits that have to be protected in a market that’s all but guaranteed to throw some nasty curves your way. Sure, gold is eventually going to $2,000 and Merrill and Citi to $10 or so. But in the meantime, the Fed will, without doubt, announce a surprise rate cut that sends financial stocks up 30% in a day. And the world’s central banks will—guaranteed—dump hundreds of tons of gold on the market one of these nights, igniting a wave of panic selling when the U.S. markets open. And they might do either or both very soon. So if you’re long the miners and short the banks, what do you do?

Possibility number one is the best but the hardest: Just sit tight and trust that fundamentals like excess money creation and festering bad loans on bank balance sheets will win out over corruption and manipulation. Five years from now you’ll be rich and the coming year’s gyrations will be barely-noticeable squiggles on gorgeous long-term charts. Still, the kind of emotional maturity required to stoically let big gains melt away, even temporarily, is as rare as it is admirable.

Strategy number two is to sell now, book your gains, and wait for a new entry point. This, like all forms of market timing, is a great idea if you can pull it off, but a disastrous one if you’re on the sidelines when Goldman Sachs announces that, upon further reflection it does indeed have a few hundred billion in subprime/derivatives/CDO losses to report. Plus, taking profits means paying taxes to the current government, which it’s safe to assume you really don’t want to do.

The third way is to hedge. Keep your positions, but use options to limit your volatility for a while. For how to do this right, I checked in with Bill Lambert, head of AMC Advisors, a good friend who specializes in this kind of thing for his clients. He likes the idea of hedging right about now. “Nothing goes up in a straight line, and precious metals and financial puts are due for a correction.” The solution? “Easy. You just do a collar.”

A collar is a relatively simple strategy (compared to a lot of the spreads and straddles that Bill sometimes tries to explain to me) that involves buying and/or selling both a put and a call to lock in a given price for an underlying security at minimal cost. All prices in the following examples are more or less market quotes from November 7.

Say, for instance, that you’re short 1,000 shares of Merrill Lynch (MER), via 10 LEAPS put contracts expiring in 2009, and Merrill is currently trading at $55. To apply a collar:

• Buy 10 December 55 call contracts (each of which represents 100 shares of stock) for $3.80, or a total of $3,800. This gives you the right to buy 1000 shares of Merrill at $55, a right which becomes more valuable if the stock goes up.

• Sell 10 December 55 put contracts for $4.10, or $4,100. This gives someone else the right to force you to buy 1,000 shares for $55, an obligation that becomes more expensive for you if the stock goes down.


“Since the put you’re selling trades at a slightly higher price than the call you’re buying, you get a credit of $300,” says Bill. So your commissions are more or less covered up front.

Now let’s say Merrill pops to $65. Your LEAPS puts go down by around $10,000 (assuming for the sake of simplicity that they move dollar for dollar with the share price) while your calls go up by about the same amount (the difference between the $55 strike price and the $65 stock price). The puts you’ve sold expire worthless, so you break even overall.

If, on the other hand, Merrill keeps falling, your call expires worthless, your LEAPS puts go up in value and the short term puts you’ve sold move by an equal and opposite amount. The result is that either way, “For the duration of December options you’ve more or less locked in your current price, so you don’t have to sell and pay taxes,” says Bill.

Now let’s say you own 1,000 shares of Goldcorp (GG), which has run from $21 to $37 in the past year. To collar it:

• Sell 10 December 35 call contracts for $2,650. This gives someone else the right to buy 1,000 shares from you at $35.





• Buy 10 December 35 put contracts for $2,050. This gives you the right to sell, or “put” 1,000 shares to someone else for $35. You collect the difference of $600.



If Goldcorp drops to $25, your shares fall by about $10,000, the call you’ve sold expires worthless, and the puts you own go up by about $10,000. The value of your position doesn’t change, and you keep the collar premium. In December, the collar expires and you’re free once again to profit from gold’s long run. “This is a classic collar, really sweet,” says Bill.

[UpInArms]

9. U.S. stock futures down, Bernanke testimony ahead

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSL0851318020071108?sp=true

FRANKFURT, Nov 8 (Reuters) - U.S. stock index futures fell before Wall Street's opening on Thursday amid overnight news of more subprime write-downs at two big banks and with Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke due to testify before Congress.

At 0945 GMT the Dow Jones future (DJc1: Quote, Profile, Research) was 0.2 percent lower, the S&P 500 future (SPc1: Quote, Profile, Research) was down 0.3 percent and the Nasdaq future (NDc1: Quote, Profile, Research) fell 0.9 percent, pointing to another day of losses in the world's biggest equity market.

The indicative Dow Jones index (.DJII: Quote, Profile, Research) tracking how the Dow stocks are traded in Frankfurt was 0.4 percent in the red. "The flight to quality continues unabated," Commerzbank said in a note, referring to investors' preference for safe-haven government bonds rather than riskier assets such as equities.

Merrill Lynch (MER.N: Quote, Profile, Research) said its total exposure to collateralised debt obligations and subprime mortgages was $27.2 billion, or about $6.3 billion more than what the world's largest brokerage disclosed late last month.

Meanwhile Morgan Stanley (MS.N: Quote, Profile, Research) said it had suffered a $3.7 billion loss stemming from its U.S. subprime mortgage exposure, which it expects will reduce fourth-quarter earnings by about $2.5 billion.

...more...

and the numbers on CNN Futures are grim

S&P 500 +2.80 1485.60 11/8 8:02am
Fair Value NA 11/8 3:21am
Difference* N/A

NASDAQ -4.50 2176.50 11/8 7:58am
Fair Value NA 11/8 3:21am
Difference* N/A

Dow Jones -281.00 13396.00 11/8 7:57am
DJIA Contracts

[Buttercup McToots]

10. SEC investigating Merrill subprime portfolio Wed Nov 7, 8:02 PM ET

SEC investigating Merrill subprime portfolio Wed Nov 7, 8:02 PM ET



NEW YORK (Reuters) - The Securities and Exchange Commission is investigating matters related to Merrill Lynch & Co Inc's (MER.N) subprime mortgage portfolio, the company said on Wednesday.

ADVERTISEMENT

Merrill Lynch said SEC staff initiated the inquiry on October 24, the same day the company reported a $2.3 billion loss for the third quarter, mostly because of write-downs of subprime mortgage related assets.

Merrill made the disclosure in a quarterly SEC filing. The company said it is cooperating with the SEC.

(Reporting by Tim McLaughlin)

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20071108/bs_nm/merrilllynch_sec_dc_1;_ylt=Aq8tdhEUSi2JWhG1t7rxPWcE1vAI

[DemReadingDU]

11. Roubini update: Credit & Financial Markets Losses: $100 billion or $200 billion?

11/7/07 Credit and Financial Markets Losses: $100 billion or $200 billion? Or most likely $500 billion? by Nouriel Roubini

You heard it first here on Monday but what was until last week an obscure and arcane corner of accounting and asset valuations (level 1, 2, 3 securities, the new FASB 157 regulation) is now a front page issue on the mainstream press and across Wall Street.

Suddenly markets and investors are discovering that many financial institutions were parking a large fraction of their asset in the level 3 bucket where they avoid using market prices to evaluate such assets but rather rely on “model valuations” and “unobservable inputs”. But now the forthcoming FASB 157 regulation will prevent them (unless heavy political lobby leads to a postponement of its implementation on November 15th) from playing such accounting tricks and force them to use market prices – when available even in illiquid market conditions – to price these assets.

And guess what now? New reliable estimates suggest that using these market prices – rather than level 3 model gimmicks - will lead to losses of another $100 billion on top of hundreds of billions of subprime losses. And some market participants are already talking – quite realistically – about total losses from this credit disaster in the $500 billion range.

Indeed, losses of the order of $500 billion are actually quite reasonable and likely once you account for all the losses from subprime, near-prime, prime mortgages, CDOs, CLOs, failed LBOs, auto loans, credit cards and other consumer credit, commercial real estate loans, a variety of asset backed securities, level 3 asset value recognition at market values, and other financial market losses. Subprime alone is now estimated to lead to losses as high as $238 billion based on a mark to market analysis.

lots more, and Bernard has some additional info in the comments
http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini/225427

[UpInArms]

14. more on Roubini's research

was in the article that I referenced in the dollar watch

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/topheadline/When_Will_the_US_Dollar_1194476481212.html

excerpt:

However, the problem with these instruments was compounded further by the fact that investors who bought these securities chose to leverage their positions. An article in the Financial Times of London, starkly spells out the dangers of this strategy, “"Imagine a typical hedge fund, two times levered. That looks modest until you realize it is partly backed by fund of funds’ money (which is three times levered) and investing in deeply subordinated tranches of collateralized debt obligations, which are nine times levered. “Thus every €1m of CDO bonds is effectively supported by less than €20,000 of end investors’ capital - a 2% price decline in the CDO paper wipes out the capital supporting it."

Indeed it’s the deadly combination of very poor credit quality and very high leverage that created such massive problems for the financial sector. The new accounting rule SFAS157 requires banks to divide their tradeable assets into three "levels” according to how easy it is to get a market price for them. Level 1 assets have quoted prices in active markets and can be marked to the market. Level 2 assets are marked on a comparable basis by observing prices for similar assets and finally Level 3 assets – the most controversial of all - are known as “marked-to-the-model” assets. These are securities for which no market value exists and which are valued strictly on a theoretical basis by the financial institutions that hold them.

Therein lies the biggest problem facing the US dollar. Almost all of the large US financial institutions have recorded massive amounts of CDO assets as Level 3. In fact in a very controversial piece of research first reported by Nouriel Roubini, the ratio of level 3 assets to shareholder equity often exceeds 100%.

Following is a table that shows the exposure of some of the largest US financial institutions to the CDO risk



...more...

[DemReadingDU]

16. Thanks for the chart

Yesterday, in SMW, I had posted the numbers in text format, but the chart is so much easier to visualize.

And these numbers come from Bernard (Ber), who comments in Roubini's blog.
http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini/224871

11/7/07 Stock Market Watch thread from Wednesday
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=102&topic_id=3057219


*********************************
Too much like 1929 by Bernard Ber
The following commentary will describe the final sequence of events that will lead to the implosion of the global economy.
.
.
The idea that a foreign stock market could dictate what happens in the US stock market almost offends the American sense of national pride (so the event is casually dismissed as “market irrationality”). A word of advice: you better get used to it, as there is much more of that to come. The crash is coming.
http://www.silverbearcafe.com/private/toomuch.html

originally posted by 54anickel in SMW last April 25, 2007...
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=2821967&mesg_id=2822086


edit for link

[PATRICK]

22. China

Comparing the analogies of 1929 where the US and great Britain were intertwined in disaster much like China and ourselves are today, I wonder at the differences. Also, the cards that Iran, backed by China, attacked the US, are playing explain why they have not backed down and that a sane US government should- immediately.

In a drastic collapse China would suffer terribly, but it is a controlled society no matter how out of hand the prosperous parts are now. Perhaps there is a win win situation for communism itself in a great 'victory" over idiotic capitalism which banked its future in their state so heavily. Likely no such long range conspiracy could sit so pretty over the ruins of its involvement, but in the long run having the entire West sink together this time gives opportunity to the one quickest to recover by abandoning the drastic "healing" that classic capitalism says is A-OK in the crash stage. I would think Asia would be best positioned except for its over population, poor resources and other limitations.(ON edit: these limitations on second thought are drastically awful.)

As with global warming with which disaster this badly timed lunacy moves in swift conjunction, there are too many people and too stressed resources not to make this potentially worse than 1929 and more in need of radical world wide change in the economic system itself. The past remedies were socialistic modifications and add-ons which typify the Western approach today. The capitalist greed disaster was grumpily on board until the next time.

This all still guarantees the impoverishment and death of unimaginable numbers and the old battle between "civilization" wrongly identified as system entrenchment versus the people versus chaos versus reality. One would think in these times, even with comparable morons in charge at too many key points, that necessity would make them get together and stop all this somehow. With George Bush in charge however, it seems certain the old patterns of meltdown will once again prevail over sanity.

[Buttercup McToots]

13. Credit Suisse Report Sets Gold Market on Fire

Credit Suisse Report Sets Gold Market on Fire

By Jon A. Nones
06 Nov 2007 at 03:35 PM GMT-05:00


St. LOUIS (ResourceInvestor.com) -- The U.S. dollar is hitting new lows against a basket of currencies, the oil price is rapidly approaching the $100 mark and now Credit Suisse is warning that falling gold production could cause a “quantum upward change” in the price. A perfect storm of bullish factors for gold as it approaches the all-time high of $850.

“Our studies indicate in the long term global gold production will begin to decline as the diminishing number of new reserves fail to compensate for dying mines,” noted David Davis, a research analyst at the bank, in the most recent “Gold Note.”

Last year, South African gold output fell to 275 tonnes, down from 296 tonnes in 2005; U.S. gold output declined from 262 tonnes to 260 tonnes; Australian production fell to 251 tonnes from 263 tonnes; Peru production declined to 203 tonnes from 207 tonnes; Russian gold output dropped to 152.6 from 156.6 and Canadian output fell from 118 tonnes to 104 tonnes.

In fact, China was the only major producing country to increase production, from 224 tonne in 2005 to 240 tonnes in 2006. Even though the country’s production is set to increase again this year, already up 13% from last year, production from South Africa, Australia and the U.S. is forecast to further decline in 2007.

“The decline in global gold production will likely be accelerated, should the gold mining industry continue to incur significant year-on-year inflation rates which are not offset by similar or significantly higher gold price increases year-on-year,” said Davis, alluding to the impact of cost increases on marginal mines.

Global production for gold peaked in 2001 at 2,604 tonnes or 83.7 million ounces. With 2006 production at 2,467 tonnes, annual gold mining supply has fallen 4.4 million ounces in five years. Since 2001, prices have more than tripled from $260/oz.


Spot New York gold opened at $819.00 bid, up $11.90 per ounce, but has since risen $16.85 to $824 bid by mid-day after touching $825.50 on the offer side, a level not seen since January of 1980.

Gold prices have gained nearly 5% in November, 11% since October and 21% since August. So far this year, gold is averaging $677, dwarfing last year’s average of $603, up 30% since the start of 2007.

Mark O’Byrne, director at Gold Investments, concurred with Credit Suisse in an e-mailed update this morning, saying “gold will experience a quantum jump in the coming months.”

“This could result in a gold price over $2,000 per ounce in a short period of time,” Byrne ambitiously noted.

The report also noted that were it not for continued selling from European central banks and others, the supply/demand situation for gold is in deficit. According to Davis, these sales will fall and eventually cease in the not-to-distant future as banks become buyers, sending the gold price higher still.


Signatories within the Central Bank Gold Agreement of 27 September 2004, which limits gold sales to 500 tonnes per agreement year, have sold on average 8.1 tonnes per week so far this year, as compared to 6.7 tonnes per week last year.

Banks have thus far reported 40.7 tonnes of sales since 27 September 2007, after ending the third agreement year at 475.75 tonnes.

Davis further noted that “the dynamics surrounding the gold supply and demand have begun to change inexorably” with increasing investment demand, “which will ultimately impact the gold price.”

In early August, RI reported that bullion inventory of the world’s largest gold exchange traded fund (ETF), StreetTRACKS Gold Shares , hit a record high of 506.7 tonnes, surpassing the mid-April peak of 500.7 tonnes. Since then, holdings have risen nearly 18% to today’s 597.53 tonnes valued at $15.45 billion.

In addition, the World Gold Council forecasts increased jewellery demand from India in 2007, which accounts for nearly 40% of all global gold jewellery demand - with jewellery demand making up 70% of the global gold demand.

A WGC official said on Monday that India's gold sales during the forthcoming period of peak festival demand leading up to Diwali are expected to rise by 10%-15% from a year ago. Indian gold demand in the first half of 2007 was 528.2 tonnes, compared to 2006’s full-year demand of 715.5 tonnes.

Dennis Gartman, editor of the Gartman Letter, said in Tuesday’s Letter that gold was indeed responding to the Credit Suisse study.

“As we write, Credit Suisse' thesis is being embraced rather enthusiastically by the market,” he said. “One cannot help but be impressed by gold's strength.”

Investors are using gold as an inflation hedge as oil prices surpass approach the $100/bbl level.

Crude for December delivery was last up $2.44 at $96.42 on the New York Mercantile Exchange, after hitting a new record high of $97 earlier.


Gartman said gold still remains “quite cheap” relative to crude oil in broad historical terms, as it currently takes only 8.50 barrels of WTI crude to buy one ounce of gold. The 36-year historic ratio is closer to 17 barrels per gold ounce, but it has been falling steadily since hitting a high of 12.53 bbl/oz on January 18.

RI last reported on this trend in late October, when the ratio hit a 2007 low of 8.45 bbl/oz. On Nov. 2, a new yearly low was touched at 8.24, a level not seen since July 2006 when gold was trading at $616/oz and oil at $74/bbl.

O’Byrne, however, said the dollar falling to new all time record lows against the euro and a basket of currencies is of more importance.

The euro was last trading at $1.4554 after earlier rising to $1.4571, its highest level since the united European currency began trading in January 1999. The dollar index dropped 0.5% at 76.05.

Morgan Stanley analysts warned today of a possible very sharp depreciation in the dollar. The decline of the dollar to record lows might turn into a “more violent correction” that requires the United States, the European Union and Japan to intervene in foreign exchange markets, analysts said.

In a note to clients, Stephen Jen and Charles St-Arnaud wrote: “The dollar could potentially weaken meaningfully further. Though coordinated interventions may not be an immediate threat, they should now be on our radar screen.”

On Oct. 31, the U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a quarter point to 4.5%, sending the dollar lower as gold immediately jumped $8.20 and crude $4.02, in an attempt to offset credit losses due to the subprime mortgage debacle.

Sources today report Citigroup Inc. may have to write down an additional $2.7 billion worth of subprime-mortgage backed and related securities, boosting its losses from asset-backed bonds to as much as $13.7 billion. That compares with potential losses of $5.4 billion for Bank of America and $4.1 billion for JPMorgan Chase & Co.

In addition to Merrill Lynch & Co., which last month reported $8.4 billion of writedowns, brokers such as Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., Bear Stearns Cos., Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley all stand to lose as much as a quarter of their equity.

Jon Nadler, senior analyst at Kitco Bullion Dealers, said that reporting such damage will take many months and could stretch the period of uncertainty well into next year.

“The amount of money being thrown at bullion has risen exponentially once again as the worries sparked by the subprime debacle have spilled over to the banking sector, where investors expect further bad surprises to emerge,” he added.

Gold for December delivery rose $14.20 to $825 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Earlier, the contract reached an intraday high of $826.

The record high for Nymex gold is $875 set in January 1980, with spot gold at $850.

[Doctor_J]

33. I keep thinking it's "too late" to start buying gold

it's cost me dearly.

[DemReadingDU]

38. same here

I just don't have that kind of money to buy gold. I'm researching buying some silver, it's more in my price-range.

[tuckessee]

52. Some say silver is currently a better buy than gold.

It's got more room to go up.

[Warpy]

68. Yes, it's considered undervalued right now

The thief who broke into my house took my mother's jewelry (valued maybe $15,000--generously--at today's gold prices)but missed all the sterling. There is about 4 generations worth of sterling, so that's fine with me.

[kelligesq]

70. Gold at 1:45 EST $837 - Silver $15.54 - ac ually imho

maybe it's not too late to buy either if you have some
money around. I'm not talking about paper stocks in gold or silver but in buying the actual metal.

About two months ago American silver eagle coin was $13.,+ or - today $15.54. Broker told me they expect silver to double within a year.

Meanwhile Gold coins in about a month has gone from $744 to $837. Earlier this year they were expecting ounce of gold to go as high as $1000, as if that were very high. Now there are those who expect $2000 ( I think so within a short time ) and I've even heard those who say it will go to $6000. I dont know about that, but I do suspect it will probably go above
$2000 within a year.

Dont forget the reset of mortgages comes in April 2008 again. More losses for banks who have bought those packaged mortgages worldwide. You do know there have been runs on banks in England? Germany Deutsche Bank also big buyer of those mortgages. Who isn't?

One problem you may run into is that most dealers have a minimum amount that can be bought - perhaps $2000 which can be mixed silver and gold coins. Personally I like Canadian gold coins which can be bought in as little denomination as 1/20 th ounce, others 1/10th ounce meaning each little gold coin will be worth today $83.70 or enough to fill your gas tank up with.

Unless your a big $50,000 buyer, buying gold and silver is not for making money but for having real money to use in case of the total collapse of the dollar - ala Germany and wheelbarrows full of Marks needed to buy one loaf of bread.

Word of caution. If you do buy gold or silver coins
DO NOT put it in your safety deposit box in the bank.
Read up on your patr.act In the event of martlaw or collapse of banks you will be accompanied to your safety deposit box by a nationalguard, hopefully not privatixed BW taking their place, who has been insructed to allow you to take documents but all gold silver will be confiscated. I kid you not.

[UpInArms]

17. pre-opening blather

08:30 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +4.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -6.5. Initial claims for the week ended November 3 came in at 317k, compared to the consensus estimate of 325k. The futures market's reaction was limited to the release.

08:02 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +5.6. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -6.0. Futures point to a mixed opening. The Nasdaq is expected to open slightly lower following a negative reaction to Cisco’s (CSCO) future outlook. The broader market is pointing higher despite several negative developments that include Morgan Stanley (MS) announcing a $3.7 billion write-down and Dow component AIG (AIG) missing the consensus third quarter EPS estimate of $1.62 by 27 cents. Unlike Cisco, though, both of these companies faced low expectations.

06:19 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +2.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -13.5.

06:18 am : FTSE...6411.70...+26.60...+0.4%. DAX...7804.14...+4.52...+0.1%.

06:18 am : Nikkei...15771.57...-325.11...-2.0%. Hang Seng...28760.22...-948.71...-3.2%.

here are the numbers on CNN Futures:

S&P 500 +2.20 1485.00 11/8 8:56am
Fair Value NA 11/8 3:21am
Difference* N/A

NASDAQ -7.00 2174.00 11/8 8:51am
Fair Value NA 11/8 3:21am
Difference* N/A

Dow Jones -281.00 13396.00 11/8 7:57am
DJIA Contracts

[AnneD]

19. Morning Marketeers.....

:donut: and lurkers. It is grey and overcast this morning. Matches the mood here. Seems the impostor in chief is coming to Houston today for a fundraiser. I am reminded of that old hymn-Bringing in the Sheep, bringing in the sheep, we shall be rejoicing bringing in the fleece I think is how it goes:eyes: I am sure folks are trying to have a warm welcome for him, but it takes forever to heat up the tar.

He then will go to San Antonio for a photo op with some wounded vets at a private rehab center. What they need to mention is that this facility was built with private funds because the public rehab centers like Walter Reed were underfunded and most Americans value our vets more than than chicken shit chicken hawk commander in chief. I guess it is best he never crosses this ex USAR soldier's path. I wouldn't hurt him, but I can't guarantee him any respect.

So what got me in such a foul mood this morning. On the CBS early morning show-Meg Oliver was reporting on the economy and reported that the deficit was now 9 trillion.:puke: Now that is bad enough, but then she went on to say that it had grown from the 4 trillion SINCE BUSH TOOK OFFICE:wtf::wtf::wtf::wtf:

TALK ABOUT REWRITING HISTORY AND GLARING FACTUAL ERRORS. I'm still stewing over that. I may be waking up and haven't had :donut:, but I am not that brain dead. That seems like the first salvo to pin the debt on the donkey. I hate to say this an you all please forgive me, but I hope this house of cards collapses while Bush is in office. And please look at the candidates economic policies when considering your vote. We need some adult leadership.

Happy hunting and watch out for the bears.

[capi888]

18. Heads Up..Ben Bernanke testimony will be viewed

On CNBC

[w8liftinglady]

28. I'm curious to see what they ask him..

[AnneD]

47. They never seem to be questions...

more like long winded harangues.

[UpInArms]

32. Chopper Ben Spews:

04. Bernanke cites weaker dollar as key inflation risk
10:00 AM ET, Nov 08, 2007 - 3 minutes ago

05. Bernanke sees inflation in range of price stability in '08
10:00 AM ET, Nov 08, 2007 - 3 minutes ago

06. Bernanke concerned with recent spike in crude oil price
10:00 AM ET, Nov 08, 2007 - 3 minutes ago

07. Bernanke says growth to remain sluggish in H1 2008
10:00 AM ET, Nov 08, 2007 - 3 minutes ago

08. Bernanke says growth likely to slow 'noticeably' in Q4
10:00 AM ET, Nov 08, 2007 - 3 minutes ago

09. Bernanke says strong Q3 GDP growth won't be sustained
10:00 AM ET, Nov 08, 2007 - 3 minutes ago

10. Bernanke: Risks still in balance in days following Oct FOMC
10:00 AM ET, Nov 08, 2007 - 3 minutes ago

11. Bernanke sees downside growth risks, upside inflation risks
10:00 AM ET, Nov 08, 2007 - 3 minutes ago

12. Bernanke sees important upside risks to inflation
10:00 AM ET, Nov 08, 2007 - 3 minutes ago

[UpInArms]

44. more spew (with attempt of being coy)

01. Bernanke says Fed sees moderate but positive growth ahead
10:42 AM ET, Nov 08, 2007 - 2 minutes ago

02. Bernanke refuses to put odds on recession
10:41 AM ET, Nov 08, 2007 - 3 minutes ago

[Roland99]

45. Bernanke shows support for Super SIV (and here's a WaPo commentary on that prospect)

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/10/16/AR2007101602151.html


It's just what we need. More of the same that got the banks into trouble in the first place!!

[UpInArms]

48. more spew - comedy routine being employed now -

06. Bernanke supports concept of Treasury's Super-SIV proposal
11:16 AM ET, Nov 08, 2007 - 22 minutes ago

07. Bernanke repeats China should move to flexible exchange rate
11:05 AM ET, Nov 08, 2007 - 33 minutes ago

08. Bernanke: Net increase in taxes not a good idea at moment
11:02 AM ET, Nov 08, 2007 - 36 minutes ago

09. Bernanke: Fed not being 'dogmatic,' will react as warranted
11:01 AM ET, Nov 08, 2007 - 37 minutes ago

10. Bernanke: Fed "isn't bailing out anybody"
10:58 AM ET, Nov 08, 2007 - 40 minutes ago

12. Bernanke: Dollar to remain dominant global reserve currency
10:47 AM ET, Nov 08, 2007 - 51 minutes ago

13. Bernanke sees no major change in China's dollar holdings
10:46 AM ET, Nov 08, 2007 - 52 minutes ago

14. Bernanke: Fed doesn't have alarmist view on home price drop
10:45 AM ET, Nov 08, 2007 - 53 minutes ago

[fasttense]

20. Thanks for keeping the stock market thread alive UIA.

:)

[Hugin]

23. Seconded.

:D

[UpInArms]

25. Ozy is having connectivity difficulties and then he was off to

teach today - his son is doing better and all is well in the Ozymandius abode

:hi:

(Hopefully, he will be returning later today or in the morning)

[UpInArms]

24. 9:49 EST "stand back," said the elephant, "I think I'm going to sneeze"

Dow 13,258.16 41.86 (0.31%)
Nasdaq 2,722.76 26.00 (0.95%)
S&P 500 1,471.55 4.07 (0.28%)
10-Yr Bond 4.304% 0.03

NYSE Volume 364,364,968.75
Nasdaq Volume 287,056,375

[UpInArms]

26. Check-Kiting Operation: Fed says doing 7-, 2-day repurchase ops

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN0819312420071108

NEW YORK, Nov 8 (Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve said on Thursday it was undertaking seven- and two-day repurchase agreements to add temporary reserves to the banking system.

Federal funds, the benchmark overnight lending rate between banks, last traded at 4.50 percent, exactly on the Fed's target rate.

[Hugin]

31. Interesting there were no amounts given...

*tsk*

[UpInArms]

35. here they are: Fed adds $20 bln via 7-day repos, $3.75 bln in 1-day

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN0820438920071108

NEW YORK, Nov 8 (Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve said on Thursday it added $20.0 billion in reserves to the banking system through seven-day repurchase agreements and $3.75 billion via one-day repos.

Federal funds, the benchmark overnight lending rate between banks, last traded at 4.50 percent, exactly on the Fed's target rate.

[UpInArms]

37. here's more: Fed adds $9.0 bln in reserves via 13-day repos (now up to $32.75 Billion)

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSNYE00019420071108

Federal Reserve said on Thursday it added $9.0 billion temporary reserves to the banking system through 13-day repurchase agreements.

The Fed said the collateral accepted on the 13-day repurchase was made up of $6.31 billion of Treasuries, $1.91 billion of agencies and $780 million of mortgage-backed securities. A total of $68.5 billion in bids were submitted for the 13-day repo operation.

Federal funds, the benchmark overnight lending rate to banks, last traded at 4.50 percent, matching the Fed's target rate.

[Roland99]

46. Wish I could do that on a personal basis.

;)

[Hugin]

54. I just wish they'd give me the 'round off error' on those transactions...

;)

[UpInArms]

39. CEO Scammers: Countrywide's Snyder approved 'egregious' exec comps - MarketWatch

3 minutes ago CtW: Countrywide's Snyder approved 'egregious' exec comps - MarketWatch

6 minutes ago CtW calls on Countrywide Compensation Chair Snyder to resign - MarketWatch

[UpInArms]

40. Fitch Takes Rating Actions on 7 Large Banks; Downgrades National City's Rtgs; Revises Outlooks

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/fitch-takes-rating-actions-7/story.aspx?guid=%7B5BFDF5EE%2D32C6%2D4973%2DAE4D%2D2959BFFCE6C3%7D&dist=TQP_Mod_pressN

NEW YORK, Nov 06, 2007 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Fitch Ratings has taken selected rating actions on several large U.S. banks. Among these actions is the downgrade of the long-term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) of National City Corporation (NCC) to 'A+' from 'AA-' and the short-term IDR to 'F1' from 'F1+'. The Rating Outlook for NCC is Negative.

Fitch has also revised the Rating Outlook for Wells Fargo & Company ('AA' IDR), KeyCorp ('A' IDR), Zions Bancorporation ('A-' IDR) and Capital One Financial Corporation ('A-'IDR) to Stable from Positive. The Rating Outlook for Washington Mutual, Inc. (IDR 'A') was revised to Negative from Stable. In addition, Fitch removed Countrywide Financial Corporation ('BBB+' IDR) from Rating Watch Evolving and assigned a Negative Rating Outlook.

A complete list of all ratings is included at the end of this release.

...more...

[UpInArms]

41. Wall Street's Doubters Growing (ruh-roh!)

http://www.thestreet.com/pf/markets/market-angle/10388980.html

Like wealth, a reputation takes years of hard labor to build -- yet can evaporate in a moment.

It's clear from recent stock-price plunges in Citigroup (C) , Merrill Lynch (MER) , Morgan Stanley (MS) , Goldman Sachs (GS) , Lehman Brothers, JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Bear Stearns (BSC) that investors are scrambling to get their money out of the big brokerage firms' shares.

But shareholders may soon be confronting an even harsher reality: Customers may be scrambling to get their money out of brokerage firms, period.

A retired family member felt it extremely urgent over the past weekend to find out if I thought he should remove his life savings from the hands of Smith Barney, the brokerage division of Citigroup. He's worried about whether his money is safe if things continue to deteriorate. If there are enough of him, these institutions could encounter so-called runs on the banks, or mass withdrawals at least.

While things like federal deposit insurance seem to suggest there's no need for anyone to really worry about the safety of their money, it's clear that many investors are of a different mind.

"It seems pretty clear to me that, bank runs or not, the financial system is pretty close to melting down here," says Scott Frew, general partner at hedge fund Rockingham Capital Partners. "We're at such a tenuous moment that anybody who isn't scared to death about the possible denouements hasn't thought things through carefully enough."

...more...

[kelligesq]

72. Holy Cr_p ! n

from the above post

http://www.thestreet.com/pf/markets/market-angle/103889...

While things like federal deposit insurance seem to suggest there's no need for anyone to really worry about the safety of their money, it's clear that many investors are of a different mind.

"It seems pretty clear to me that, bank runs or not,

the financial system is pretty close to melting down

here," says Scott Frew, general partner at hedge fund

Rockingham Capital Partners.

[UpInArms]

80. Welcome to DU and the SMW, kelligesq!

glad to have you here!

:hi:

[UpInArms]

42. Morgan Stanley outlook now negative, was stable-S&P

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN0858264620071108

NEW YORK, Nov 8 (Reuters) - Standard & Poor's on Thursday changed its outlook on Morgan Stanley (MS.N: Quote, Profile, Research) to negative from stable after the bank said it will write down $3.7 billion in securities backed by residential mortgages.

A negative outlook indicates a ratings cut is likely over the next two years. S&P rates Morgan Stanley's senior unsecured debt "AA-minus," the fourth highest investment grade.

Morgan Stanley said on Wednesday the loss stemming from U.S. subprime mortgages will likely reduce fourth-quarter earnings by about $2.5 billion. For more see .

The loss is a result of increased risk-taking in proprietary trading at the bank, S&P said in a statement.

"This misstep points to the increased risk Morgan Stanley bears owing to management's growth strategy and, more broadly, increased trading risks for all the broker-dealers in the current environment," S&P said.

...more...

[Roland99]

49. 11:48am - Into the red...

Dow 13,249.05 -50.97
Nasdaq 2,714.06 -34.70
S&P 500 1,473.78 -1.84
10 YR 4.30% -0.04
Oil $97.40 $1.03
Gold $846.50 $13.00

[TrogL]

50. Loonie Watch

Highlights

Current:



30-day and 90-day vs.greenback:



30-day vs. Euro, Yen, UK Pound and Swiss Franc




Currency Comparison: http://members.shaw.ca/trogl/looniewatch.html

Detailed analysis: http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD

Up-to-the-minute graph: http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=CME_CD.Y%24%24&v=s&w=5&t=l&a=1

Historical values http://www.x-rates.com/d/USD/CAD/data30.html

2007-09-27 Thursday, September 27 0.99691 USD
2007-09-28 Friday, September 28 1.00412 USD
2007-10-01 Monday, October 1 1.00715 USD
2007-10-02 Tuesday, October 2 0.9998 USD
2007-10-03 Wednesday, October 3 1.00392 USD
2007-10-04 Thursday, October 4 1.002 USD
2007-10-05 Friday, October 5 1.01885 USD
2007-10-08 Monday, October 8 1.01885 USD
2007-10-09 Tuesday, October 9 1.01564 USD
2007-10-10 Wednesday, October 10 1.01906 USD
2007-10-11 Thursday, October 11 1.02627 USD
2007-10-12 Friday, October 12 1.02701 USD
2007-10-15 Monday, October 15 1.02501 USD
2007-10-16 Tuesday, October 16 1.0227 USD
2007-10-17 Wednesday, October 17 1.02712 USD
2007-10-18 Thursday, October 18 1.02743 USD
2007-10-19 Friday, October 19 1.03767 USD
2007-10-22 Monday, October 22 1.01926 USD
2007-10-23 Tuesday, October 23 1.03381 USD
2007-10-24 Wednesday, October 24 1.02987 USD
2007-10-25 Thursday, October 25 1.03381 USD
2007-10-26 Friday, October 26 1.03961 USD
2007-10-29 Monday, October 29 1.04745 USD
2007-10-30 Tuesday, October 30 1.04888 USD
2007-10-31 Wednesday, October 31 1.05307 USD
2007-11-01 Thursday, November 1 1.05296 USD
2007-11-02 Friday, November 2 1.06838 USD
2007-11-05 Monday, November 5 1.07101 USD
2007-11-06 Tuesday, November 6 1.0819 USD
2007-11-07 Wednesday, November 7 1.09075 USD

Current values

http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD)

Market            Open   High    Low   Last  Change    Pct 
CD.Y$$ Cash     1.0765 1.0791 1.0749 1.0791 -0.0048 -0.44% 
CD.Z07 Dec 2007 1.0734 1.0815 1.0734 1.0763 -0.0072 -0.66% 
CD.H08 Mar 2008 1.0780 1.0780 1.0777 1.0777 -0.0058 -0.54% 
CD.M08 Jun 2008 1.0799 1.0810 1.0799 1.0810 -0.0023 -0.21% 
CD.U08 Sep 2008 1.0787 1.0808 1.0780 1.0808 -0.0022 -0.20% 
CD.Z08 Dec 2008 1.0501 1.0550 1.0500 1.0825 -0.0003 -0.03%  
CD.H09 Mar 2009 1.0927 1.0927 1.0927 1.0820 -0.0003 -0.03% 

Other combinations: (http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=currencies)

Market              Open    High     Low    Last   Change     Pct 
AUSTRALIAN $/CANADIAN $ (NYBOT:AS)
AS.Z07 Dec 2007 0.8754 0.8754 0.8754 0.8588 +0.0056 +0.65%  
AUSTRALIAN $/US$ (NYBOT:AU)
AU.Z07 Dec 2007 0.93065 0.93065 0.93065 0.93065 +0.00575 +0.62%  
CANADIAN $/JAPANESE YEN (NYBOT:HY)
HY.Z07 Dec 2007 124.260 124.260 123.520 121.825 -1.755 -1.42%  
EURO/AUSTRALIAN $ (NYBOT:RA)
RA.Z07 Dec 2007  1.60350 1.60350 1.60350 1.57275  -0.00140 -0.09% 
EURO/BRITISH POUND (NYBOT:GB)
GB.Z07 Dec 2007 0.6975 0.6975 0.6974 0.6974 -0.0008 -0.11%   
EURO/CANADIAN $ (NYBOT:EP)
EP.Z07 Dec 2007 1.33510 1.33510 1.33510 1.35410 +0.01075 +0.81%  
EURO/JAPANESE YEN (NYBOT:EJ)
EJ.Z07 Dec 2007 165.11 165.11 165.05 165.05 +0.02 +0.01%   
EURO/US$ (LARGE) (NYBOT:EU)
EU.Z07 Dec 2007 1.45770 1.45770 1.45770 1.46735 +0.01120 +0.76%  

Blather (from http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD)

The December Canadian Dollar was lower overnight as it consolidates some of this week's rally into uncharted territory. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish hinting that a short-term top might be near. Upside targets are hard to project if December extends this fall's rally into uncharted territory. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0460 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 1.0825. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.0641. Second support is the 20-day moving average at crossing at 1.0460.

Analysis

The bot really needs to get into the real world. The issue isn't the loonie - it's the greenback. The whole world is reacting to that and the loonie's getting caught in the crossfire. Global news ran a segment on it last night, including a graph showing the loonie gaining on all other major currencies. This was part of a segment on cross-border shopping. There's a company in Calgary that hires busses to drive from Calgary to the states for shopping. They're booked sold into January. Global also worried about China diversifying.

The numbers up above look fairly drastic, but that's because they're reacting to two-nights-ago's panic in the Eastern markets.

[TrogL]

95. Closing numbers

Current values

http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD)

Market            Open   High    Low   Last  Change    Pct 
CD.Y$$ Cash     1.0765 1.0791 1.0654 1.0654 -0.0185 -1.71% 
CD.Z07 Dec 2007 1.0734 1.0815 1.0646 1.0649 -0.0186 -1.72% 
CD.H08 Mar 2008 1.0780 1.0780 1.0686 1.0648 -0.0187 -1.73% 
CD.M08 Jun 2008 1.0799 1.0810 1.0690 1.0646 -0.0187 -1.71% 
CD.U08 Sep 2008 1.0787 1.0808 1.0690 1.0643 -0.0187 -1.72% 
CD.Z08 Dec 2008 1.0730        1.0715 1.0638 -0.0187 -1.73% 
CD.H09 Mar 2009 1.0927 1.0927 1.0927 1.0633 -0.0187 -1.71% 
 

Blather (from http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD)

The December Canadian dollar closed down 186 points at 1.0649 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today on strong follow-through selling pressure. Wednesday's price action produced a bearish buying "exhaustion tail," whereby buying interest dried up at higher levels and prices backed way off. Today's follow-through selling is one early technical clue that a market top is in place.

Analysis

Looks like the bloom is finally off the loonie and it will come down to sane(r) levels. I've heard various economists saying prime is about where it belongs.

[JNelson6563]

53. hahaha!! CNBC just now

Big debate just now on CNBC between Steve Liesman and Rick Santelli. Liesman alway, always takes to approach that everything's great. I count on him regularly to tell why bad news is really good news. Ugh.

Anyhow, {the great) Santelli just kicked the crap out him and it was thing of beauty to behold. Back and forth it went, point-counterpoint. He finally stated that he didn't think Liesman understood how the Treasury markets worked. hahaha You should've seen Liesman.

It was priceless. :toast:

Julie

[AnneD]

59. I have taken to streaming snippets....

of CNBC and frankly. I am appalled at what 1)passes for economic reporting 2)passes for economic expertise. I can NOT believe what spews out of the folks mouths as economic information. It must be for entertainment value only because you could never make a sound financial judgment if that is your source.

Honestly, I get more solid info here on this thread. CNBC-"We do Fox Business so you don't have to"

[UpInArms]

55. 12:49 EST numbers with "worst crisis in 30 years" blather

Dow 13,140.04 159.98 (1.20%)
Nasdaq 2,672.83 75.93 (2.76%)
S&P 500 1,458.86 16.76 (1.14%)
10-Yr Bond 4.287% 0.047

NYSE Volume 2,255,527,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,674,001,875

12:30 pm : The major indices are extending their declines. Selling pressure is broad-based, but there is significant weakness in the tech (-3.4%) and financial sectors (-1.5%).

Reuters reports the turmoil gripping global credit markets is the worst crisis Deutsche Bank CEO Josef Ackermann has ever seen, but he does not expect it to cause any further write-downs for his own bank. "(This) is psychologically the worst crisis that I have seen in my 30 years," Ackermann added, speaking to journalists at the Reuters Finance Summit. DJ30 -93.72 NASDAQ -51.14 SP500 -7.79 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1577/1292/1.44 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1723/1424/787 mln

12:00 pm : The major indices are posting losses at the East Coast lunch hour, with the Nasdaq underperforming due to weakness in tech stocks. Action has been choppy as the market digests Fed chairman Ben Bernanke's testimony before the Joint Economic Committee.

The prepared text for Bernanke's speech noted downside risks to the economic outlook given slower business and consumer spending, and upside risks to inflation given the weaker dollar and the rise in commodity prices.

In sum, the Fed is in a bind. While it has proved willing to bend to the economic concerns, it's worried that an overshoot could come back to bite them as lower policy rates help perpetuate higher inflation.

While the market continues to believe the Fed will come to the rescue with another 25 basis point rate cut at the December FOMC meeting, Briefing.com sides with the read from the policy statement that policy is on hold unless the economic/inflation news provides a large surprise.

[specimenfred1984]

57. Precipitous 100 point drops in the Dow = Hedge Funds Gone Wild!

The big banks/investment houses will be taking their money back now all you fund investors, pension investors, IRA investors and, well, all you "regular" people out there. Thanks for believing all the corporate press propaganda that enabled the price rise in the 1st place, they couldn't have done it without people like Tim Wood (Financial Sense) and their constant stream of lies and feigned ignorance.

And lil' ole' China doesn't seem to like all their U.S. dollar-based investments devaluing anymore, whodda ever thought that a complete fraud for a U.S. gov't would actually hurt the U.S.?

[saigon68]

61. At 1:13 pm Dow Down 205

13,094.69 -205.33 -1.54%

[Roland99]

63. 1:18pm - NASDAQ taking a beating!

Dow 13,130.94 -169.08
Nasdaq 2,657.78 -90.98
S&P 500 1,455.89 -19.73
Oil $96.23 $-0.14
10 YR 4.27% -0.07
Gold $837.80 $4.30

[UpInArms]

79. yesterday's drop took the Nasdaq below what it was when Dimson squatted

at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave

[David Zephyr]

62. And the traditional safe haven of Utilities is way up today.

Utilities: Never a barn burner in performance, but over the long haul a solid performer. Utilities have done well this year again. It's a great component to any portfolio.

I exited the overall stock market in May because I couldn't handle the volatility. The only investments I kept there were those that I'd had since the early 1980's and I kept all my utilities.

The overall stock market is a house of cards now with just too many dimensions of vulnerability for me personally to weather. The fact that people in China are putting their entire paychecks into the market is simply manic gambling.

And regardless of what some are saying, if there is a downturn in the U.S. economy (which there is), it will affect Asia and Europe.

Utilities do well in downturns and they are positioned to perform in the future as they are investing in alternate energy sources.

[spotbird]

67. Enron

bought some "widows and orphans" utilities before its failure.

Be careful.

[David Zephyr]

71. All mutuals.

Thanks for your concern. Everything has risk, but I look back at my investments since 1980 and utilities have been a solid component for me, especially during the more crazy times which is where I think we are now.

I love investing, but either my mind has gotten too slow or everything has gotten way too fast and volatile for me. I just don't like these swings that began last February when the Asian markets first took that wild downturn. The oscillations since then have gotten more and more frequent and that's just not where my comfort zone is now.

[spotbird]

74. It's nuts

even advice like "buy Euros" seems like herding for the kill at this point.

[David Zephyr]

97. I agree so much with what you said.

The dollar is so devalued that everyone is rushing to Euros and to metals, but that ship sailed a long time ago. The only way I could make up for my great losses after 9/11 was that I rolled the dice and put most all I had on the table and into foreign and Asian stocks. It paid off and I got my losses back and then some, but by May I got very cold feet and yanked almost all of it out except for the things I told you.

I don't know where to put my shrinking little dollars, but I think that this Fed Chair will lower rates until the sub prime mess and the banks are rescued and then, Zappo, he will raise rates like a maniac to stave off inflation and to raise the dollar again like Volker did in the early 1980's.

Our so-called "free market" is not free. It is manipulated by so many big forces domestic and foreign that an old investor like me who has loved it all these many years is just not comfortable there these days.

Oil at $90 a barrel. That's a knife to our necks.

[UpInArms]

64. Sotheby's shares fall on disappointing auction sales

http://www.reuters.com/article/hotStocksNews/idUSBNG9886920071108

(Reuters) - Shares of Sotheby's (BID.N: Quote, Profile, Research) lost more than a third of their value, a day after the international auction house painted a lackluster performance at its Impressionist and modern art auction.

With a total take of just under $270 million, the Sotheby's

Impressionist and modern art auction fell far short of even its low pre-sale estimate of $355 million.

"Tepid results for a major sale suggest cloudier macro outlook for the art market," Bank of America analyst Dana Cohen said in a note to clients. Cohen downgraded the stock to "neutral" from "buy."

The lower auction sales suggests a possible slowdown in one of three key areas, namely, U.S. hedge funds, Russian commodities and Chinese economic growth, Cohen added.

Several high-profile works, including a Vincent van Gogh landscape, painted just before the artist's death, went unsold and top works by Paul Gauguin and Pablo Picasso all came up short at the Sotheby's auction.

...more...

emphasis mine

[kelligesq]

76. If art like Van Gogh is not selling

I dont care that Sotheby's stock price fell...but if art is not selling it means the very rich are not buying into art as a hedge - like gold.

so where are they putting their money?

[TalkingDog]

84. News from the trenches

I had a rare completely unfettered day today so I thought I would go to my favorite high-fashion store and buy a frock for an upcoming fundraiser.

Now, my favorite high-fashion store is a Goodwill in a little town north of Charlotte NC called Cornelius (Korn-eel-yus, as we say down here). I like it because it is situated in the heart of an area which boasts wealthy Lake Norman residents, well-compensated NASCAR families and Davidson College. (a private 4 year college)

As such the clothes are often very high quality, linen, raw silk, heavy silk with coutour that I wouldn't buy even if it were on sale in the store. Paying $3.75 for a long-sleeved raw silk shirt is a much better bargain, IMHO. And these are not given to Goodwill because they are misshappen or damaged over time. These are simply clothes that are out of style. I rarely see a speck or stain on these (unlike the more local Goodwill where I go to buy work and workout duds)

I go to this store when I need a holiday dress for social occassions and usually I find much more than I could ever use. The last time I was in, there were so many clothes I could barely fit in the aisles and I picked up 2 or 3 mint condition vintage decorative items from the 50's.

Today I went in and I was not exactly shocked, but certainly taken aback. There were fewer racks and on them fewer clothes. There were still linens and silks to be had, but not nearly the same choices as my previous visit.

And the household shelves looked pretty much the same as any other Goodwill, with a couple more breadmakers than usual, but with no vintage or silver goodies.

I think people are letting go a little more slowly than usual. But the funny thing is, when I broach the subject of a flimsy economy, most of the folks I talk to give you a blank stare, like they hadn't thought about it that much. I think, at this point, its an pre-conscious reaction for many of them.

I did find a dress. Even though I will have to spring for suitable foundation garments, I'll still come out way ahead. Clothes for required work functions are, after all, tax deductible.

My Favorite Master Artist: Karen Parker GhostWoman Studios

[UpInArms]

86. hmmmm....

I wonder if someone has spotted your secondhand shop and is recycling for dollars on eBay?

:hi:

[AnneD]

90. My fav sites that are also economic indicators.....

pawn shops (look for an upscale one in that area) and the number of vehicles repo'ed.

[nightrider767]

65. How About Some Advice

So let's say someone wanted to buy into a stock fund as a hedge against the US market falling and to protect his or her portfolio against the weakening dollar.

With my retirement fund, I can't take money out of my Schwab account. I can sell my stocks, but then the money would be left in a money market fund still at risk to the weakness in the dollar.

[spotbird]

66. It's hard to know what to do.

It would mostly depend on the stocks. A few might survive this, if your basis is good.

[MattSh]

69. Can you be more specific?

When you say you want to buy into a stock fund??

My first thoughts would be ETF's. Not exactly a stock fund though. Either gold, silver, oil, currency, etc. I think you can even get one in uranium if you want... Or an inverse ETF or mutual fund, which goes up when the market goes down.

[silverlib]

73. I have the same problem...

Are you aware that Schwab has an option for FDIC CDs in retirement accounts? I moved the bulk of my Schwab money into CDs. I realize that the return is a lot less (the highest one at this point is at 5.01%) and that FDIC backing, IMO, is also rather shaky. But take a look. I called before I transferred to make sure that it was a legal option and they have multiple choices on the Web. My husband is close to retiring and I just couldn't handle the volatility either.

Good luck!

[nightrider767]

77. Thanks, I'll look at that.

That's a good safety net from the stock market. But my fear is the value of the US dollar. If our money is in CD's and the value of the dollar plummets, then the value of the CD's will also fall, even if it doesn't look that way on paper.

I think I might split my money up. Maybe leave a third in CD's or bonds, and the rest, split between a fund pegged to gold and one pegged to the Euro.

I'm no expert on those types of funds, but I would guess they have them.

Gold is always a little speculative, but it's future seems brighter than the dollar. As for the Euro, I just have a feel that their fiscal programs are stronger and more responsible than our own, so again, it's future certainly seems brighter than the dollar.

Plus the dollar is really going to show a lot of volatility as it's value sinks. China's already looking at dumping the dollar as well as OPEC. And when that happens..... Molly bar the door!

[specimenfred1984]

81. Advice costs money and can only be given by licensed professionals

And who licenses the licensed professionals? What you need is a few opinions and they are all over this board everyday, most of which are good opinions.

[UpInArms]

82. 3:27 EST magical levitation act in progress

Dow 13,259.30 40.72 (0.31%)
Nasdaq 2,696.28 52.48 (1.91%)
S&P 500 1,473.77 1.85 (0.13%)
10-Yr Bond 4.271% 0.063

NYSE Volume 3,952,597,250
Nasdaq Volume 2,950,578,750

3:00 pm : The major indices are hovering near their session lows in what is turning out to be another ugly day of trading.

Without a substantial turnaround in the financial (-2.2%) and tech (-5.0%) sectors, which together make up 36% of the S&P Index, the broader market stands to stay in negative territory.

On the commodities front, Dow Jones is reporting that BP’s CEO sees oil at $60 to $80 per barrel in the medium term. A barrel of crude for December delivery is down 1.0% to $95.38.
DJ30 -188.26 NASDAQ -89.55 SP500 -21.09 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2019/953/2.59 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2194/1063/1.45 bln

2:30 pm : The major indices are falling back toward their intraday lows as buyers fail to follow through with their recovery efforts.

21 of the 30 Dow components are in the red. IBM (IBM 105.81, -5.27) and AIG (AIG 54.86, -3.04) are the main laggards, while Exxon Mobil (XOM 88.81, +1.61) and Procter & Gamble (PG 70.62, +1.20) are providing leadership. Fellow Dow component McDonald's (MCD 59.42, +1.04) is performing well after posting better-than-expected October same-store sales. DJ30 -167.50 NASDAQ -83.66 SP500 -18.47 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1993/988/2.41 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2140/1107/1.34 bln

[specimenfred1984]

83. Amazing late-day recovery or market manipulation, you decide

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EGSPC&t=1d

[UpInArms]

85. 3:43 EST and hardly a bruise

Dow 13,293.44 6.58 (0.05%)
Nasdaq 2,705.85 42.91 (1.56%)
S&P 500 1,473.90 1.72 (0.12%)
10-Yr Bond 4.271% 0.063

NYSE Volume 4,221,618,000
Nasdaq Volume 3,144,344,500

[Roland99]

88. Over 4.2 billion shares?

cripes

[specimenfred1984]

92. The "press" is alway completely silent during these "recoveries"

You'd think they'd be raving about a 180 point run-up in the DOW, if it were real that is or if the "press" actually had anything they could use for propaganda. I'm sure they're thinking of some lie that fits the official line as I type.

[Hugin]

94. The 'press' generally ignores these 'recoveries', because they have no explaination...

They tried a few weeks back. Haven't since then, it's easier to ignore and divert attention.

[Roland99]

87. I just saw the numbers. Holy cow!!

:wtf:

[Hugin]

89. I will now predict this evening's chatter in the Corporate Media...

The Markets ended slightly (up/down) after a day of active trading... Nothing to see here, move along.

[nightrider767]

91. No Surprise

I can't see a single thing that's going to hold this market up.

I see a slow death..

Maybe not an overnight crash like in 1929, but she's gonna be trending down.