Hurricane Dean blows into Caribbean "on a path toward the oil and gas rigs"

[rodeodance]

Source: reuters



Hurricane Dean blows into Caribbean

By Jim Loney 14 minutes ago

MIAMI (Reuters) - Hurricane Dean knocked out power, triggered landslides and ripped the roof off a hospital in St. Lucia on Friday as it raced into the Caribbean on a path toward the oil and gas rigs of the Gulf of Mexico, officials said.


Dean's sustained winds rose to 105 mph (170 kph) as the Category 2 storm passed the French island of Martinique, just across the narrow St. Lucia Channel where the eye of the hurricane crossed from the Atlantic Ocean to the Caribbean Sea.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center predicted Dean would grow to a Category 4 storm, the second-highest level on the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale, as it races through the Caribbean and probably into the Gulf, home to a third of U.S. domestic crude oil and 15 percent of natural gas production.

Energy markets have been skittish about hurricanes since powerful storms including Ivan, Katrina and Rita in 2004 and 2005 disrupted oil and gas production.

Read more: http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20070817/ts_nm/storm_dean_dc;_ylt=AvvAL7OHnaNz3IaiL005Ylms0NUE

[Purveyor]

1. This paragraph from the NHC doesn't sound good for the Texas coast...

THE MOTION OF DEAN...280/18...CONTINUES TO BE CONTROLLED BY A STRONG
RIDGE TO THE NORTH. A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE WESTERN
BAHAMAS IS EXPECTED TO RUN WESTWARD AHEAD OF THE HURRICANE AND THE
ONLY POSSIBLE INFLUENCE ON THE TRACK OF THE HURRICANE IS TO ADD A
SMALL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COMPONENT IN THE LATER PERIODS.

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WITH A
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO THE NORTH DUE TO THE GFDL AND UKMET MODELS.
THE GFDL SOLUTION INSISTS ON A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL...<B>BRINGING DEAN INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO
AS A STRONGER HURRICANE THAN INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT GUIDANCE FOR DAY 4 AND 5 IS MORE UNCERTAIN
TODAY THAN YESTERDAY.</b>

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT04/refresh/AL0407W5_sm2+gif/150024W_sm.gif

[rodeodance]

3. no, it does not-nor the Yukitan, Mexico

[krispos42]

8. So, by next Wednesday, NOLA could be underwater again.

Well, I get paid next Thursday, so I'll be able to make a Red Cross contribution this time. Lord knows that BushCo is not going to do anything of note until the Monday after!

[no_hypocrisy]

2. NOW, it's a disaster . . .

[Virginia Dare]

7. Yes, it might even wreck the decider's vacation...

:cry:

[Lochloosa]

4. Here is the really bad news...

75% chance it will be at least a Cat 3 within 48 hours.




http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT04/refresh/AL0407T_sm2+gif/150024P_sm.gif

[RL3AO]

6. Its a Cat 3 now.

NHC will issue an update within an hour saying that AF Recon found Category 3 winds. I am 99% sure.

IMO, there is a 75% chance it will be a Cat 5 within 48 hours.

[Maddy McCall]

9. Jeff Masters blog...

are they saying that the HHs have found winds at 133 MPH?

:scared:

[RL3AO]

10. Those are flight level winds.

Surface winds would be about 115, which is Category 3 strength.

[DLnyc]

12. Seems you are right:

00
WTNT34 KNHC 171751
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
145 PM AST FRI AUG 17 2007

...DEAN STRENGTHENS TO A MAJOR HURRICANE WITH 125 MPH WINDS...

(snip)

SATELLITE IMAGES AND DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
INDICATE THAT DEAN HAS STRENGTHENED. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE NOW 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DEAN IS A MAJOR
CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185
MILES...295 KM. BANDS OF HEAVY SQUALLS ARE STILL AFFECTING PORTIONS
OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND ARE APPROACHING PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

LATEST ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BY A RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 961 MB...28.38 INCHES.

(snip)

[Lochloosa]

13. Damn...that was fast

[rodeodance]

5. --Dean was expected to become an extremely dangerous Category 4 storm next

Dean was expected to become an extremely dangerous Category 4 storm next week with winds of 150 mph (240 kph) on a course projected to take it near Jamaica by Sunday and aimed at Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula or straight into the Gulf of Mexico through the Yucatan Channel.

If it crosses the Yucatan, it is projected to re-emerge in the southern Gulf as a Category 3 storm and could disrupt operations in the Cantarell Complex of Mexican oil fields, which is one of the world's most productive and supplies two thirds of Mexico's crude oil output.

Numerous islands across the Caribbean were under storm alerts including Hispaniola, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Anguilla, Grenada, Saba, St. Eustatius, Montserrat, Antigua and Barbuda, St. Kitts and Nevis and St. Maarten.

Forecasters have predicted the six-month hurricane season that officially began June 1 would be more active than average with up to 16 named storms. An average year historically has 10 to 11 storms, of which six strengthen into hurricanes.

[HeeBGBz]

11. Jamaica is going to be in trouble

So might we all, but it's hard to leave the islands.

The tracks are trending north and if the high leaves the SE it could move further north. So needless to say, I'm watching this very closely.

[aquart]

19. Where are you?

And good luck wherever you are.

[HeeBGBz]

20. I am in Biloxi

Sitting in a trailer right on the back bay. If this thing gets much further east, I'm screwed, I think.

Thanks for the positive thoughts.

[Up2Late]

14. Translation: Another excuse to raise Oil Prices!

Like they needed another. :mad:

Oil Rises as Hurricane Heading for Gulf of Mexico Strengthens

By Grant Smith

Aug. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rose after a hurricane strengthened as it headed toward the Gulf of Mexico, home to more than a quarter of U.S. oil output.

Hurricane Dean battered the Lesser Antilles in the Caribbean today and is expected to cross Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Aug. 21 before blowing into the Gulf of Mexico. The hurricane could threaten the U.S. Gulf Coast by the middle of next week, according to the reinsurance company R.K. Carvill International Holdings Ltd.

``Hurricane Dean should not yet be counted off,'' said Olivier Jakob, managing director at Petromatrix GmbH in Zug, Switzerland. ``History has shown that a hurricane crossing across the Yucatan can quickly regain strength once it steps back into the Gulf.''

Crude oil for September delivery rose as much as 88 cents, or 1.2 percent, to $71.88 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was at $71.64 at 12:30 p.m. in London....

(more at link) <http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a6OrRSnhckVI&refer=home>

[Up2Late]

15. This web site that I find is usually very accurate is predicting it becoming a strong Cat 4 soon...

<http://tsr.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/tracker/dynamic/200704N.html>

Here's the current wind field model:



<http://tsr.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/tracker/dynamic/200704N_0H.html>

[RL3AO]

17. It could be a Cat 4 in 90 minutes.

[Baclava]

16. wtf? Do we really need two competing threads?

What's up wit dat?

[ElboRuum]

18. So, whattaya think?

$3.50 a gallon? Or dare I imagine the inglorious $4?

[thunder rising]

21. $3.50 per gallon gas

[Up2Late]

22. kick n/t

:kick: