U.S. Consumer Confidence Climbs to Highest in 6 Years

[Purveyor]

Source: Bloomberg

July 31 (Bloomberg) -- Consumer confidence in the U.S. climbed more than forecast in July to the highest in almost six years, spurred by job and income growth and lower gasoline prices.

The New York-based Conference Board's index of consumer confidence rose to 112.6 in July from a revised 105.3 the prior month. The index averaged 105.9 in 2006.

Robust confidence would help consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of the economy, pick up from a second-quarter slump. Greater job stability, cheaper gasoline and rising stock prices through most of the month outweighed concerns about falling home values.

``The consumer economy, once again, remains on a firmer footing than it has generally been given credit for,'' said Richard DeKaser, chief economist at National City Corp. in Cleveland, whose forecast of 111 was the most accurate. ``There is a generally healthy disposition among consumers. Even in spite of the pause in spending, we will see them come back.''



Read more: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aeZ2P2C0bjwM&refer=us

[tanyev]

1. In spite of foreclosures rising 58% in the first half of '07?

Do tell.


Foreclosures rise 58 percent in first half of ’07
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x2935702

[MetaTrope]

17. No doubt sales on cardboard boxes are WAY up!

[hack89]

25. How big an impact in absolute numbers?

58% increase equals how many people? There are hundreds of millions of consumers many of whom are doing fine - remember that many of these foreclosures represent recent home owners - many more bought before the bubble. And also don't forget that every foreclosures represents someone who potentially make a killing selling the house in the first place.

[tanyev]

39. I guess a group of fearful consumers and a group of ultra-confident consumers

could average out to some increased consumer confidence. Sucks if you're on the bottom of the heap, though.

[Double T]

2. I guess ALL of the REAL ECONOMISTS have left the country..........

or are being held in halliburton internment camps.

[Purveyor]

3. "They" must have decided to 'exclude' Michigan in their polling like they exclude food and energy

from inflation statistics...

[raccoon]

54. What a great idea---just include the areas of the country that are

doing well. :sarcasm: (Actually, I'm surprised they don't do that already.)

[candice]

4. I can pay for my health insurance this month, but not the next...

...the company that I worked for was acquired by a larger company and hasn't paid me yet. But then I found out that "my" insurance company makes 27 % profit on individual accounts such as mine and has been sued by doctors and nurses in the state of California for denying hospital payments because of suppposed "errors" on the patients' applications. If the insurance company isn't capable of verifying its applications but accepts premiums, how is it supposed to be telling doctors what they can do with their patients? Maybe taking the profit out of this is the way that a semi-advanced country would go.

[MaineDem]

5. This is so bogus! n/t

[phantom power]

6. whaaa? Was this a scientific poll of College Republicans?

[Tempest]

7. So we're right back where we were when Bush took office

And that's considered progress?

[Tempest]

8. Consumer spending dropped last month from June

There's a disconnect here that no one is talking about.

[Amonester]

12. "we will see them come back" (!!)

"Even in spite of the pause in spending, we will see them come back."

Yeah, they'll continue to default on their mortgage & cc accounts, but they'll keep on buying scrap at wallmart and feed the pigs at X on MOB ill.

[ljm2002]

53. Thanks for pointing that out...

...because it's the first thing that jumped out at me in yesterday's news report on the radio: first they announced that consumer spending was down in June, then a few minutes later they were talking about the latest survey showing "consumer confidence" is up. Yes, there is a definite disconnect. And as usual our compliant media does not even notice the discrepancy, much less investigate.

:wtf:

[Bonobo]

9. Huh!?

Who the fuck did they ask?

[Delphinus]

48. My question exactly.

I think I heard this last night - or perhaps on NPR this morning - whenever it was, I about choked! I wish I was as good a storyteller as them.

[truthisfreedom]

10. Lower gas prices? Excuse me?

Did I miss something?

[MaineDem]

11. Actually gas prices are down a bit around here

$2.70s in some places.

[bobthedrummer]

13. "The chocolate ration has been increased to xxx grams..."

Long live BB!

[bobthedrummer]

16. "Debt crisis hits Chrysler buyout" (BBC /7-26-2007)

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/6916804.stm

[annabanana]

14. There is an "Alice in Wonderland" quality to this...

How do they get these numbers? Which indices are included, which left out? Do they sit around at cocktail parties and ask each other "How are things"?

[bobthedrummer]

18. Corporate psychics and remote viewers-it's voodoo economics

with a monetized debt and the effects of a destabilization program being perception managed here in HOMELAND (tm) by the fascists.

You can take that to your local privatized central bank, annabanana, as crazy as it sounds-it is sound.

[olddad56]

15. It is a ploy to prop up the stock market after last weeks plunge.

[acmavm]

19. OMG! These people think all of us are as ignorant as your

average bush** supporter.

[EndofTheRepublicans]

20. This month was the lowest since 126.7 in December 1998

As usual, it's not completely false it's just spun till the dog looks like a golden goose.

Low numbers near the end of the Clinton Administration from Dec 2000...
"The monthly number dropped to 128.3 in December from November's 132.6. This month's reading was the lowest since 126.7 in December 1998.
http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/econ0017.htm

As of Dec 2000 the confidence number was 128.3, the Bush economy confidence number is at an all time high, within the 'almost 6 years' period in this article, at 112.6.

Stop this ride I need to get the Fuck off!:crazy:

Edited to remove an index number that didn't apply to the article

[Binka]

29. Welcome! I Love Your Handle

I want off the crazy roller coaster too! :hi:

[EndofTheRepublicans]

42. Thanks!

I luv your picture, kinda looks like the Gerber baby ate too many paint chips.
j/k

Very cute!
8)

[ncrainbowgrrl]

30. Welcome to DU, EndofTheRepublicans!

Glad you're here, pull up a chair and get comfy :hi:

[EndofTheRepublicans]

43. Thanks!

Glad to be here, in the reality based community. 8)

Thanks for volunteering your time, to make it possible.

[originalpckelly]

50. Of course, we all know it's the highest confidence people have had in six years...

people are getting excited for old dumbass to leave office, if he actually does.

[ProudDad]

21. You can fool all the people some of the time... (n/t)

[CountAllVotes]

22. uh huh

DOW down 146+ pts. today. That is what you call CONfidence!!! }(

:dem:

[sutz12]

23. IOW, they are almost back to where they were under Clinton.

:evilgrin:

[reprobate]

24. Does ANYONE believe government announcements anymore?

[Psephos]

34. This announcement is not from the government

Did you read the article?

[Donnachaidh]

26. what ..what.. what.. what ...WHAT?

Oh yeah --

They've reached Orwellian heights with this. :wow:

[crim son]

27. Interesting. I've never been in such deep shit financially as i am now.

Who are these consumers and does one of them want to pay for repairs to my twelve-year-old car?

[IChing]

28. At least you are confident as a consumer that it's shit.

I think that is what they are talking about.

[wishlist]

31. Poll taken before stocks fell back and oil reached record high

Everyone I know is complaining about the steep price increases lately, especially groceries.

[Psephos]

32. This survey is a broad measure of public sentiment. Who's out of touch? Public or this thread?

I'd say a majority of those on this thread.

Wake up. This is a broad measure of public sentiment, and it's public sentiment that determines elections. Only the politically inept make a habit of telling the public how stupid they are. It DOES NOT WORK. What works is to listen to the public, and then work with what you hear.

What I see on this thread is a lot of people who don't like the fact that economic conditions aren't generally perceived to be as bad as the DU cognoscenti deem them.

Public sentiment is against the Iraq war. By the logic I saw upthread, we should mistrust and nay-say public opinion on that, too? Or is the public tone-deaf and stupid when they say what we don't like, and brilliant when they do?

Ideology is not your friend when it leads to electoral stupidity.

[rcdean]

33. This report is internally inconsistent and by common sense measures just plain wrong.

I don't deny that many on this board are out of touch with the street. But I'm not. And I don't believe these results.

I don't know of anybody who felt good about the economy last month. Now that sentiment has even spread to Wall Street.

The report even cites the fact that consumers face the worst depression in housing prices in 16 years and that stymies one of the main sources of consumer confidence over the term of this maladministration: the ability to refinance one's home.

The report points--ludicrously--to a so-called decline in gasoline prices last month. If there was one, most of us missed it. It surely wasn't noticeable.

The report also shows vastly higher numbers than the two college surveys. The reason given is that the Conference Board's results rely much more on labor data. Well if they rely on labor data, then they can't be pure measures of public confidence. They're more likely measures of Republican wishful thinking.

Yes unemployment is low as measured by the admittedly flawed manner in which it is measured (i.e. not sampling those who have quit looking for work--of whom there are plenty. For instance, men downsized in their 50's who have no hope of equivalent employment in the current economy).

I think this report is a manipulated outcome, not unlike a great many of the reports that come from governmental and quasi-governmental agencies and right wing cheerleaders for this pathetic administration.

[ProudDad]

37. 3500 "households" are hardly

a "broad measure of public sentiment"...

Where are the homeless, the underemployed, the ones who can't afford a stamp to send back their questionnaire?

[Psephos]

41. Reuters/UM survey found the same trend

Meanwhile, this survey passes the basic tests of validity for sample size and technique.

Have you ever taken a statistics course?

You're missing my point, anyway. I personally don't think the economy is all roses, and am not trying to convince anyone that it is. The point is that decent polls show that broad consumer sentiment is rising, and that we should listen to that message and adapt to it, rather than huff and puff about how stupid the public is for expressing what they believe. That kind of arrogance leads to disasters on election day.

[ProudDad]

47. I'd chalk it up to the late summer doldrums

"You don't roll out a new product in August" because no one's paying attention...

You're right, we shouldn't ignore the fact that the USAmericans are sheep and these surveys tend to semi-accurately reflect the bias of the question writers...they reflect the sheeple's reactions to certain spin...and as such, tell the pollsters what spin works and what doesn't.

Is it arrogance on my part? Maybe. Mostly it's just damn-sick-and-tiredness in my approaching older age at the constant path of decline I've watched in this country and the fact that only the most marginalized of the "candidates" would change that pattern of decline in any meaningful way.

The last 2 pResidential elections were stolen though -- the exit polls verified that... So arrogance or not, nothing could have changed that since the Dems couldn't mount a good populist campaign to counter repuke dirty tricks and theft.

Remember what Twain said, "There are lies, damn lies and statistics!" It's very dangerous to believe all polls without knowing the details of the methodology...

[Psephos]

49. That was a good reply

We may not always see eye to eye, but diversity of opinion is a good thing, when those differing opinions are exchanged in a congenial or at least collegial way.

I gather that you have been through a lot in life, and that your wisdom has been paid for several times over.

I agree thoroughly with your point that none of the main candidates promises much change from the pattern, and that Mark Twain was right about lies and statistics.

We're soldiers in the same war, ProudDad. I have a plan. You attack 'em from the left flank, I'll attack 'em from the right flank, and we'll squeeze those bastards 'til they cry for mercy. ;-)

[EndofTheRepublicans]

44. Let's see how these numbers look historically

"Ideology is not your friend when it leads to electoral stupidity."

I wholeheartedly agree 8)

[ProudDad]

35. "The New York-based Conference Board's index of consumer confidence"

Oh, Yeah! An unimpeachable source for a reading of the state of mind of the USAmericans...

"The Conference Board Consumer
Confidence Survey: Methodology

The Consumer Confidence Survey is conducted for the Conference Board by TNS. The questionnaires are mailed to a nationwide representative sample of 5,000 households, of which roughly 3,500 typically respond. Each month, a different panel of 5,000 households is surveyed.

The Index is based on responses to five questions included in the survey:

1. Respondents' appraisal of current business conditions.

2. Respondents' expectations regarding business conditions six months hence.

3. Respondents' appraisal of the current employment conditions.

4. Respondents' expectations regarding employment conditions six months hence.

5. Respondents' expectations regarding their total family income six months hence.

For each of the five questions, there are three response options: POSITIVE, NEGATIVE, and NEUTRAL.

The response proportions to each question are seasonally adjusted. For each of the five questions (above), the POSITIVE figure is divided by the sum of the POSITIVE and NEGATIVE to yield a proportion, which we call the "RELATIVE" value. For each question, the average RELATIVE for the calendar year 1985 is then used as a benchmark to yield the INDEX value for that question. The Indexes are then averaged together as follows: Consumer Confidence Index: Average of all five Indexes; Present Situation Index: Average of Indexes for questions 1 and 3; Expectations Index: Average of Indexes for questions 2, 4, and 5."

-------

Ah, another application of Finagle's Variable Constant -- that value which when multiplied by the results gives the hypothesis...

An unimpeachable source...

[rcdean]

46. Thanks for the methodology info.

I looked myself but couldn't find it.

[burrowowl]

36. Say What?

Who are they interviewing?

[ProudDad]

38. People with homes

enough to eat and enough leisure time to fill out the damn fool questionnaire for three...

Then they apply Finagle's variable constant to get the results they want...

[Eurobabe]

40. What shit are these goons smoking??

Must be good stuff.

[Doctor_J]

45. Yes, releasing the burden of a mortgage tends to make one feel relief

:crazy:

[Vidar]

51. Bullshit.

[cyberpj]

52. Chief Economist Confidence Climbs to Heights of Insanity...

``There is a generally healthy disposition among consumers. Even in spite of the pause in spending, we will see them come back.''


Any US spending increases must be coming from the favored 1% - the wealthiest who continue to spend on unnecessary luxury - or else bankrupt bound consumers still living off of credit cards.

This country is broken.

[varun]

55. U.S. Majority Sees Recession Coming

http://money.aol.com/news/articles/_a/us-majority-sees-recession-coming/20070802145909990001?ncid=NWS00010000000001

Reuters
Posted: 2007-08-02 17:06:25
NEW YORK (Aug. 2) - Just over two-thirds of Americans believe the country is either already in recession or headed for one over the coming year, according to a new poll conducted jointly by The Wall Street Journal and NBC.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

Consumer confidence highest? :eyes: