Strife Foreseen in Iraq Exit, but Experts Split on Degree

[rodeodance]

Source: nytimes

May 27, 2007
Strife Foreseen in Iraq Exit, but Experts Split on Degree

By MICHAEL R. GORDON and ALISSA J. RUBIN

WASHINGTON, May 26 — There is one matter on which American military commanders, many Iraqis and some of the Bush administration’s staunchest Congressional critics agree: if the United States withdrew its forces from Baghdad’s streets this fall, the murder and mayhem would increase.

But that is where the agreement ends. The wrangling in Washington over war financing, still fierce despite the Democrats’ decision to forgo for now withdrawal deadlines, has obscured a more fundamental debate over what Iraq’s future might look like without American troops.

Would the pullback of American forces unleash an even bloodier round of civil conflict that would lead to the implosion of the Iraqi government? Or would it put pressure on Iraqi politicians to finally reconcile their differences? More bluntly: how bad would things get?

Those questions loom as the administration debates how and when to wind down its troop increase in Iraq, as Iraqis weigh the trade-offs between autonomy and security, and as Congressional Democrats, frustrated by this week’s compromise with the White House, vow to hold a tougher line on future war financing.



Read more: http://www.nytimes.com/2007/05/27/world/middleeast/27withdraw.html?_r=1&th=&oref=slogin&emc=th&pagewanted=print

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