AP: Dean Trailing Against Bush, Poll Finds (55-37)

[GRClarkesq]

WASHINGTON - Howard Dean (news - web sites) is gaining ground as the leading candidate in the Democratic presidential contest but he appears to be a substantial underdog in a hypothetical matchup against President Bush (news - web sites), a national poll says.

snip

In a head-to-head matchup, Bush led Dean by 55 percent to 37 percent. Few in the poll, including Democrats, knew a great deal about Dean and his positions.

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=536&e=1&u=/ap/20031223/ap_on_el_pr/campaign_poll

Early days.

[AngryAmish]

1. Time, Time

[polpilot]

29. 37% is a huge number for Dean at this point. 15-20% would be fine. This

number indicates a trouncing for Bush in November as ALL economic and war situations implode.

Dean '04...

[CMT]

2. I see they didn't match up any other candidates

I also remember that most of '99 and up to the Democratic convention that Gore was 15-20 points behind Bush. Clinton was running third behind Bush and Perot in '92 at one point. I also note that many people don't know Dean yet so when that is the case generally they pick the known over the unknown. Things will tighten once we have a nominee.

[Triana]

3. the 'incumbent' is always ahead in these polls

also:

"Few in the poll, including Democrats, knew a great deal about Dean and his positions."

Those lazy, complacent Democrats had better get busy and do their homework. It's not like Dean's positions are a secret...

jeeeze.

[plm135]

5. the past MAY be prologue

but I suspect we will be looking up at Bush for quite awhile. We really need to get our house together soon. I dont care which candidate wins to be honest, but we need to get one relatively fast and then EVERYONE, Green, centrist, EVERYONE needs to bite whatever bullet they need to bite and vote for the Democratic candidate.

It's the only chance to win.

[lefty_mcduff]

4. Junior has the edge NOW...

...has the media in his pocket, he;s the incumbent, before the nomination, etc, etc, etc. I'm surprised that Dean's so high at this point. Patience, grasshoppah, patience....

[MidwestTransplant]

6. Oh this doesn't matter

National Security won't be one of the very top issues on people's mind come the election either. Rationalize Rationalize Rationalize

[w4rma]

7. Folks don't know *any* of the Democratic candidates' positions

Not because the Democratic candidates don't put that information out at every opportunity, but because our press refuses to talk about issues, instead talking about superficial peronality traits and the horserace (this particular article talks about the horserace), IMHO.

[plm135]

9. those positions are easily found..

its not the press' responsibility, its ours...point blank.

we need to stop blaming others for our own laziness.

The republicans, to their credit, do better at getting out the vote, do better at focusing on getting their guys elected EVEN if they arent as to the right or conservative as they would like (or too conservative in some cases), and do better at staying on message than we do.

we can continue to blame the media, the right, and everyone else, but in the end, we are to blame. Greens like to blame the Democrats for 2000 but if they had bit the bullet and voted for Gore I guarantee you that they would have a lot more voice in things then they do now.

We as a party have so many factions that have taken a my way or the highway approach to things that we can almost no longer come together on the big picture anymore.

[mahina]

15. What can I do?

Agreed! Time is short, we only have 11 months.

In answer to the plaintive "What can I do but hope" that I hear from friends I offer a brief list meant as a beginning and a request of more suggestions for CONCRETE things you and I can do now>

Host information-sharing house party for your candidate (with an ABBA co-host?)
carry voter registration and Democratic Party registration forms with you
link to Granny D's website! http://www.grannyd.com/ Go granny go!
wear your button, welcome the conversations
(keep your sense of humour)
canvas your neighborhood
send an email to all the people we uilt community with in your area during the protests...find things to send them to encourage them. That network will be invaluable.
leaflet cars in malls and church parking lots*
bumper sticker of course....
leaflet movie theater bathrooms during busy films
get together with your friends and hold signs on busy corners- positive!
your ideas.....?






a church next door to my gym has an arrangement to use the parking lot during services. After working out I found a leaflet on my car that was incredibly hateful to gays...it was on all the cars and told very inflammatory half-truths and a number of outright lies about the gay marriage/civil union issue meant to draw political support for the right wing. Churchgoers are deserving of both sides of the story, the inflammatory rhetoric of fear and the rational argument for equal rights. As long as it is respectfully done- and which the 'hate gays' leaflet was NOT, it will only help. But we shouldn't focus on just that issue alone by any means.

[mahina]

16. What can I do?

Agreed! It's OUR job folks, and time is short, we only have 11 months.

In answer to the plaintive "What can I do but hope" that I hear from friends I offer a brief list meant as a beginning and a request of more suggestions for CONCRETE things you and I can do now>

Host information-sharing house party for your candidate (with an ABBA co-host?)
carry voter registration and Democratic Party registration forms with you
link to Granny D's website! http://www.grannyd.com/ Go granny go!
wear your button, welcome the conversations
(keep your sense of humour)
canvas your neighborhood
send an email to all the people we uilt community with in your area during the protests...find things to send them to encourage them. That network will be invaluable.
leaflet cars in malls and church parking lots*
bumper sticker of course....
leaflet movie theater bathrooms during busy films
get together with your friends and hold signs on busy corners- positive!
your ideas.....?






a church next door to my gym has an arrangement to use the parking lot during services. After working out I found a leaflet on my car that was incredibly hateful to gays...it was on all the cars and told very inflammatory half-truths and a number of outright lies about the gay marriage/civil union issue meant to draw political support for the right wing. Churchgoers are deserving of both sides of the story, the inflammatory rhetoric of fear and the rational argument for equal rights. As long as it is respectfully done- and which the 'hate gays' leaflet was NOT, it will only help. But we shouldn't focus on just that issue alone by any means.

[mahina]

17. sorry about the duplication....

Sorry!

[SOS]

8. Bush v. Gore 2000

results:

Gore: 48.41%
Bush: 47.89%

Total votes for these candidates was 101 million, thus each percentage point represents approx. 1 million votes.

Now the ABC poll results:

Bush: 55%
Dean: 37%

So are we to assume that 18 million Gore voters will abandon the Democratic Party and vote for Bush?

Seems doubtful, at best.

[plm135]

10. the problem is

you dont need 18 million voters to abandon us and vote for Bush.

You might only need a million or so to stay home, and another half million or so (just 2-3%) to vote for Bush in the right states to give him a convincing EC win.

[joeunderdog]

22. Polls are bullsh!t. Propoganda.

Where are the 55%? Women? Minorities? Unions? Financial Conservatives? MIlitary? Vets? Disabled? People working overtime?

No f-en way.

[Merlin]

11. Completely asinine implication that this is a negative. It's good news.

For a challenger to score this high--within 13 points of a majority--at a time when only a fraction of the voting public knows who he is is a very favorable sign.

[plm135]

12. that seems a little over hopeful

dontcha think? I think we all realize that the whomever the eventual Democratic candidate is, they wont drop below 45-46% in a two man race at worst.

The problem is, thats a very real possibility at this point, unless we all come together.

[MidwestTransplant]

20. Are you crazy

about 33% of the country is party line Democrat. This means Dean is only pulling in an extra 4%

[Debi]

25. Try to remember that

There are 8 other democrats running for the nomination....if I got that polling call and was supporting someone other than Dean I would tell the polster that I supported Bush just to skew the poll....Wouldn't you????

How did Clark match up against Bush...oh, they didn't even ask?? Hmmm.

[Sean Reynolds]

13. Almost pulling in 40% of the vote and isn't even running against Bush yet.

IMO that is good. We've got a long time before November and if I recall Gore was behind Bush early on in the 2000 election. Once Dean's message gets out, the gap will close.

[rock]

14. Remember: polls don't vote

In any case, I don't trust the media to conduct a valid poll.

[NNN0LHI]

18. I don't believe polls. Going for a walk, whistling past the cemetery now

[MODemocrat]

19. Oh, don't root for Dean's downfall yet

So many are trying to bring him down, it makes me determined to fight even harder for him. Dean's a tough one; he can handle it. :bounce: :bounce: :bounce: :thumbsup:

[0007]

21. Go Dean Go!

[TheStateChief]

23. Didn't Bush Lead Gore About the Same In 1999?

This is another media hype job IMO. The fact that most people don't know the positions of Dean (or any of the Democrat candidates for that matter) betrays the significance of the poll. According to the polls a year before the last presidential election more people liked Bush than Gore until they got to know him better. The same will happen here.

[TheStateChief]

24. Just Read the Whole Article - The Real Story

is whether or not Dean stands up strong enough to Bush and Rover and their attempts to protray him as something less than a strong leader. That's the real info that should be taken from this poll, not who people would elect today when they admit that they don't know the person Bush is running against. This is a great opening, to be sure, but if the Bush team is allowed to define Dean then it will be difficult to change some of the national security perceptions.

Anyway, my earlier post regarding the significance of polls like this still stands.

[mccormack98]

26. Think like Rove ... trailing by 13 sets a low bar

Better to be 13 points behind now. Dean's numbers can't help but rise. When Dean's numbers go up, the press will have a ready made story: "Dean closing in on Bush."

Scenario:

December 2003: Dean trails by 13 points
January 2004: Dean trails by 9 points
April 2004: Dean trails by 5 points
July 2004: Dean and Bush in statistical tie.

Story from July onward "My oh my, the country is split again. It's too close to call ..."

[On the Road]

27. This is GREAT News!

This is an 18-point difference. Al Gore was also down 18 points in the polls before he turned it around. At that point, the election was much closer in time and everyone knew who Al Gore was. The polls swung by over 20 percent at various points in the campaign. Many people still know Dean only as an angry anti-war candidate. That view will change during the general election. 18 point is absolutely within striking distance.

The other thing to take into account is how the story line will develop. Whatever candidate wins the nomination will inevitably gain in the national polls as his visibility increases and the party coalesces around the candidate. A good campaigner like Dean should be able to score points against Bush and win some converts from independents and Republicans.

The story at that point (if Dean is the nominee) will be: "Polls Show Dean Support Surging." That's the second act, and the most important for the election.

[Merlin]

28. Absolutely correct! I'm very optimistic.

Most of the electorate by now has some dark, deep misgivings about Shrub. When Dean or Clark present themselves as savy, intelligent, honorable, tough, moderate alternatives, I don't care how much money they throw at them, there is no way for Shrub to save his own ass. We are gonna win this one.

[lancdem]

30. The comparison to 2000

might be a bit off. Gore wasn't running against an incumbent with a huge campaign war chest, no primary opponent and the bully pulpit at his disposal.

[librechik]

31. Shrub goes nose to nose with ABB in the same poll

the headline is an attack, not a fair reading. The poll asked the "any democrat" question first!

on edit: hey! After close reading I see they didn't even mention that part of the poll, just raced to the "DEAN TRAILS BUSH BY WIDE MARGIN"
crapola.