STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday January 3

[ozymandius]

Wednesday January 3, 2007

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 747 LONG DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2199 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 1904 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1865
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 7
Enron execs conveniently deceased = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON December 29, 2006

Dow... 12,463.15 -38.37 (-0.31%)
Nasdaq... 2,415.29 -10.28 (-0.42%)
S&P 500... 1,418.30 -6.43 (-0.45%)
Gold future... 638.00 +1.10 (+0.17%)
30-Year Bond 4.82% +0.01 (+0.10%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.71% +0.02 (+0.43%)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver


PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Rob Kirby

2006 - THANKS FOR THE MEMORIES

What a treat – filling in for Tim Wood – writing the last market wrap of 2006.

-cut-

Then there’s New Year's, and doesn’t EVERYONE make a list of New Year's resolutions? With this being the case, it seemed fitting that some sort of review of the year’s major news headlines might be in order.

With that in mind – and not wanting to re-invent the wheel, with me being a devoted Gold Bug – I thought it fitting to share with a still wider audience this interesting piece published yesterday by Midas Bill Murphy at Lemetropolecafe.com. These headlines were assembled in chronological order by Café member / contributor David R., who, in his own words said,

“As I read the daily news, I have taken to saving PDF files of interesting news articles the second I see them. With the constant barrage of news, it can be astonishing how little time it takes to forget important stories - and many important stories get just a few hours - or minutes - of coverage. I find it helpful, when assessing where trends have gone over the last year, to look back at these archives.”

US knew of Al Queda cell before 9-11 | No plan yet for New Orleans power
| Cheney calls war critics reprehensible | NSA eavesdropping wider than
White House admitted | US high court nominee urged eavesdropping
immunity | Suit over domestic spying | AG Gonzales defends eavesdropping
| Bush slashes domestic programs, boosts defense | Louisiana governor
vows hardball with Washington | Chavez vows to build up arms | New
Orleans will seek aid from other nations | Bush pushes wind, solar, less
oil | Bush defends ports deal | VP Cheney shoots man | Cheney - Iraq not
in civil war, predicts success | Warnings about Moussaoui unheeded |
Bush disagrees that Iraq in civil war | Military probes killing of Iraqi
family | Bhagdad doctors end strike, ban police from wards | Abu Ghraib
handler guilty of abuse | Bush sees US in Iraq after his term |
California sued over Diebold voting systems | Bush dismisses calls for
White House shake-up | Iraq Propaganda Ok | US Tortures in 'Black Room'
| Chertoff says ports safer under Dubai | Moussaoui could have led to
9-11 attackers | FEMA breaks Katrina contracts pledge | US high court
judge said to slam detainee rights | Rice admits thousands of errors in
Iraq | John Dean backs bid to censure Bush | Supreme Court won't review
Bush terrorism powers | Massachusetts passes ambitious health care plan
| Homeland official arrested for solicitation | Amnesty report fuels
secret prison suspicions | Bush said to authorize leak of Iraq
intelligence | Guantanamo trials unfair | Guantanamo trials claimed
illegal | President authorized Iraq leaks | Wired News- Whistle-Blower
Outs NSA Spy Room | Experts advise no hurry to sell family silver |
White House hotly denies report on Iraq WMD | Generals want Rumsfeld to
resign | Rumsfeld under renewed attack | Iranians volunteer for
martyrdom missions | Iran donates $50 million to Hamas-led government |
Rumsfeld wont quit | Ex-CIA agent says WMD intelligence ignored | Nearly
30 percent at Guantanamo jail cleared to go | CIA fires officer over
secret prison leak | Actor in 9-11 film denied entry to US | Aussie
homeowners make market in green power | Bush marks Earth Day with focus
on alternative fuels | US seeks to dismiss AT&T secrets suit | Amnesty -
Torture widespread in US custody | Wells Fargo computer with customer
data missing | Cheney speech spurs new Cold War_ Russian press | Kremlin
fuming after rebuke by Cheney | CIA chief Goss quiet on abrupt departure
| Court skeptical of FCC on broadband wiretap access | NSA kept domestic
calls | As freedom shrinks, teens seek MySpace to hang out | Bush says
authorized intelligence activities lawful | Bush denies spying infringes
on privacy | Specter wants to know about NSA phone database | Congress
passes $70 billion tax cut | German sues over detention and torture |
Qwest balked at NSA records sweep | CIA leak case court filing focuses
on Cheney | Cheney pushed to widen eavesdropping - NY Times | Bush
presses Senate to confirm Hayden for CIA | Europeans knew of CIA flights
| US releases 9-11 video of Pentagon hit | German to fight on after CIA
torture lawsuit fails | US urged to close Guantanamo | NSA killed system
that sifted phone data legally. | Rice faces silent protest in Boston |
Rights abuses rise due to war on terrorism - Amnesty | FCC chief says
won't probe NSA call program | Senate panel endorses Hayden as CIA
director | Bin Laden says Moussaoui not part of Sept 11 | US says
government should judge spy secrets | Cheney could be witness in CIA
leak case | Belarus to ban US & Canadian flights | Harsher Abu Ghraib
methods condoned | Veterans' data theft may cost $500-mln | Attorney
General prepared to quit over Jefferson probe | Government asks for
dismissal of NSA wiretapping suits | EU court rules airline data deal
with US illegal | In Haditha, Memories of a Massacre | Spain acquits
Sept 11 suspect of conspiracy charge | Europe colluded in CIA prisoner
spiders web | Cheney defends against Specter eavesdropping rebuke |
Court backs government broadband wiretap access | Suicides prompt new
calls to shut Guantanamo | Briton held at Guantanamo says suicides
inevitable | Goldman nears $4.6 bln AB Ports offer | Judge may decide if
US eavesdropping is legal | Suicides fuel more calls for closure of
Guantanamo | Families say Saudi Guantanamo deaths not suicides | Canada
terror suspects have no chance of fair trial | Bush makes surprise visit
to Iraq | Rove not charged in Plame leak | Al-Quaida IDs 20th 9-11
hijacker | UK-US partners in crime on CIA flights | Bush says would like
to close Guantanamo | UN experts urge Guantanamo closure | US to
extradite Afghans at Guantanamo | Bush acknowledges Guantanamo damages
US image | Military deaths in Iraq hit 2,500 | Supreme Court allows
evidence despite police violation | 9-11 thefts not prosecuted | US
soldiers charged with murder in Iraq | ex-Bush aide convicted of
corruption | US wants telecom surveillance lawsuits in DC court | AP-
Police got phone data from brokers | Bush - Iran Aug date for atom reply
is long time | House panel would ask Bush for surveillance records |
AT&T revises privacy policy, says owns customer data | Witness in CIA
inquiry told Germans of missing man | US Rejected Iran in 2003 | SWIFT
provides financial data to government | Human mad cow epidemic may be
underestimated | US secretly used data to track terror funds | Treasury
confirms bank records surveillance | Bush rips terror financing report |
Rights watchdog backs report on CIA flights | US court prepares ruling
on Guantanamo tribunals | US military admits killing non-combatant in
Iraq | Anti-terrorism orders quashed | U.S. top court rejects Guantanamo
military tribunals | Pentagon reaffirms need for Guantanamo prison | UN
rights forum adopts ban on disappearances | Secret agent interviews rock
French terrorism trial | Italy seeks arrest of 4 Americans for rendition
| White House kept major intel program secret | Soldiers charged in Iraq
rape-murder case | White House asks for dismissal of NSA wiretap suit |
US applies Geneva Convention to military detainees | Alleged terrorist
held years in US without charges | Bush blocked review of spy program |
Judge won't drop AT&T eavesdropping lawsuit | Italy spy boss refused
CIA's kidnap request | US bar panel raps Bush on signing statements |
Specter prepping bill to sue Bush | ACLU appeals dismissal of German's
CIA torture case | UN rights body tells US to shut secret jails | Spies
spied-on as Italy kidnap probe turns tables | Court told US troops
gang-raped Iraqi girl | Belgian drain covers vanish as metal prices
surge | CIA contractor goes on trial over Afghan torture & murder |
Court told US troops gang-raped Iraqi girl | US seeks to shield its
interrogators from war crime charges | Sixty percent of Americans oppose
Iraq war | Court rules NY police can search bags at subways | CIA
contractor guilty in Afghan prisoner torture & murder | Judge orders
halt to NSA wiretap program | Bush predicts courts will uphold security
wiretaps | U.S. is coming apart at the seams | Carmakers urged to hurry
up on plug-in hybrids | Agency wants FAA execs disciplined over 9-11
lies | Panhandle wind power could help light the rest of Texas |
Democrats see support for anti-Rumsfeld vote | Bush admits CIA held
terrorism suspects outside US | Senate deflects push for Rumsfeld
outster | EU lawmakers demand to know location of CIA jails | 9-11
conspiracy theorists multiply | Saddam had no link with al-Qa'ida, US
Senate concludes | Bush officials cleared as Powell's former deputy
admits unmasking CIA agent | Merkel criticizes US over CIA prisons |
Bush - CIA terrorism detention program invaluable | Senate panel
approves Bush-backed spying bill | NATO gets no offers of extra
Afghanistan troops | Mideast leaders tell Annan Iraq war a disaster |
Baghdad death squads kill 60 | Bush faces Senate rebellion on tribunals
| Bush argues terrorism case after Republican revolt | Dying glaciers
draw curious to Swiss Alpine peaks | Polar bears drown & islands appear
in Arctic thaw | NSA Bill Performs a Patriot Act | Mint declares Liberty
Dollars illegal | USA TODAY - Feds lower boom on alternative money | The
Gold Blog - The Death of the Liberty Dollar | CITIZEN-TIMES - Liberty
Dollars face legal scrutiny | US detainees abroad face legal vacuum |
Bush approval rating rebounds in new poll | Bush, Iran president to face
off | Israel cluster bomb use in Lebanon called outrageous | US tortures
Canadian by mistake | House panel backs Bush on detainees | California
sues carmakers for making cars | U.S. secret prisons at odds with
democracy | U.S. general calls for Geneva Conventions definition |
Pentagon ordered to identify detainee abuse cases | UN says Iraq
deadlier, Italians go home | Wal-Mart cuts generic drug prices to $4 in
Florida | Bill Clinton warns against wide torture approval | German
police shadowed man before CIA seized him | Woman jailed for months over
$700 fine | UN expert says torture in Iraq is out of hand | CIA officers
refused to work at secret prisons | U.N. rights envoys condemn Bush plan
on interrogation | Musharraf - US threatened to bomb Pakistan after 9-11
| Specter to press for detainees habeas corpus rights | Rights groups
decry US Senate bill on detainees | Abramoff had more White House ties |
Pakistan accused of hundreds of terror abductions | Woodward says Bush
concealing level of Iraq violence | First female space tourist returns
to Earth | Rice doesn't recall 2001 CIA warning on al-Qaida | Rice
disputes report she brushed off CIA chief | White House backs Rumsfeld
as it denies charges on Iraq | Court says eavesdropping program can
continue | Former 9-11 detainee accuses U.S. of abuse | Guards describe
Guantanamo prisoner abuse | Iraq deaths put at 655000 | Exhausted, 16
Afghans freed after Guantanamo | NY lawyer's case prompts debate on Bush
tactics | Pentagon inspector general orders Guantanamo probe | U.S.
lawyer gets 28 months jail for aiding terrorism | AZ AG illegally
seizing money transfers | Peace, love, exams - U.S. anti-war movement
quiet | Westinghouse wins massive China nuclear deal

It’s been quite a year, hasn’t it? Now, I’d better get back to writing down my own list of New Year's resolutions.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[Ghost Dog]

14. Could world shrug off U.S.?

http://www.canada.com/nationalpost/financialpost/story.html?id=7f041bdb-09af-45ae-b0ab-fd935bb9095b&k=49845

Jacqueline Thorpe, Financial Post
Published: Tuesday, January 02, 2007

Quick, pop quiz: Which country was the top exporter in 2006?

With all the hoopla that has accompanied China's emergence as an exporting powerhouse, the Asian tiger springs immediately to mind. But for the fourth year running, Germany is set to clinch the title.

While China dazzles with its ability to crank out cheap consumer goods at a frenzied pace, Germany has been quietly pumping out high-end engineering products, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, automobiles, medical devices and technology as the global economy booms.

Its exports are likely to exceed US$1-trillion this year for the first time and are forecast to keep on chugging in 2007. Not bad for an economy most North American analysts had written off as high-cost, inflexible and strangled by union power for most of the past decade.

With Germany firmly on its feet, Japan still plodding along, South America's recent troubles now just a bad dream, Asia's economic miracle broadening, the Middle East awash in petrodollars and even poor, old Africa catching a ride on the commodities train, 2006 was a very good year for the global economy. The International Monetary Fund is forecasting global growth of 5.1% for 2006, up from 4.9% in 2005.

The question is, if the United States falters or even sinks into recession in 2007, will the global economy crumble, too?

Perhaps not. Analysts are beginning to think 2007 could mark the year the rest of the world decouples from the United States, a sign economic might is subtly shifting toward emerging market giants and to old stalwarts such as Germany and Japan.

/...

[ozymandius]

2. Today's Reports

10:00 AM Construction Spending Nov Briefing Forecast
Briefing Forecast -0.7%
Market Expects -0.6%
Prior -1.0%

10:00 AM ISM Index Dec
Briefing Forecast 51.0
Market Expects 50.0
Prior 49.5

2:00 PM FOMC Minutes Dec 12

5:00 PM Auto Sales Dec
Briefing Forecast 5.3M
Market Expects 5.2M
Prior 5.1M

5:00 PM Truck Sales Dec
Briefing Forecast 7.7M
Market Expects 7.3M
Prior 7.2M

http://biz.yahoo.com/c/e.html

[54anickel]

34. ISM index bounces back to 51.4% after rare drop below 50%

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/us-factory-sector-grows-again/story.aspx?guid=%7B75948161-0206-40D0-9049-C8C803F95538%7D&dist=

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The U.S. manufacturing sector expanded again in December following a contraction in November, the Institute for Supply Management reported Wednesday.

The ISM manufacturing sentiment index rose to 51.4% from 49.5% in November. Readings over 50% indicate the sector is growing. It was the first increase in the index since July.

Economists surveyed by MarketWatch were expecting the index to remain below 50% at 49.5%. See Economic Calendar.

Bonds retreated from early gains following the better-than-expected ISM report. Stocks continued to advance. See Market Snapshot.

The ISM index is considered one of the best real-time economic indicators. The index shows the breadth of economic growth among manufacturing companies. The diffusion index is constructed by taking the percentage of firms showing growth and subtracting the percentage reporting a contraction.

more...

[54anickel]

35. Forex - Dollar jumps on strong manufacturing ISM, construction spending

http://www.forbes.com/markets/feeds/afx/2007/01/03/afx3295018.html

LONDON (AFX) - The dollar rallied on the back of a stronger-than-expected manufacturing ISM indicator and construction spending.

The manufacturing ISM rose to 51.4 in December from 49.5 in November, beating predictions of a more modest rise to 50.3. The construction spending fell 0.2 pct on month in December, whereas markets were expecting a 0.6 pct fall.

snip>

'The response to the data was positive, but it looked like the dollar wanted to go up today anyway,' said Steve Barrow at Bear Stearns (nyse: BSC - news - people ), noting that the dollar refused to back down against the euro this morning when strong German jobless figures were published and once again after the weak ADP forecasts for US jobs data, which estimated a fall in the non-farm payrolls, to be made public on Friday.

'Those who are buying the dollar now will nevertheless have to face the possibility of a poor payroll number on Friday,' said Barrow, suggesting that there may be dollar weakness in the run up to that set of data.

more...

[54anickel]

48. Fed focused on inflation, but slump caught its eye

One FOMC member argued for balanced statement raising possibility of cut

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/fomc-focused-inflation-slump-caught/story.aspx?guid=%7BE5853C39-132E-409F-B2E2-CA3A54D5A8EB%7D

Last Update: 2:00 PM ET Jan 3, 2007


WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Members of the Federal Open Market Committee agreed unanimously in December that inflation remained the primary risk to the economy, although they acknowledged that the economy may have been a "touch softer" than they had previously believed, according to minutes of the Dec. 12 meeting released Wednesday.

While all the central bankers continued to see inflation as the primary threat, several members argued that "subdued" data meant that "the downside risks to economic growth in the near term had increased a little and become a bit more broadly based than previously thought."

After the Dec. 12 meeting, the FOMC voted to keep the Fed's overnight interest rate target steady at 5.25% and issued a public statement emphasizing its concerns about inflation and the possibility of additional interest rate increases, despite mixed data hinting at a more severe slowdown.

One member of the 11-person committee - Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker -- voted to raise rates immediately to fight inflation.

In contrast to Lacker's hawkish dissent, one member of the group argued for a more balanced statement that would have raised the possibility that rates could be cut, the minutes said.

more...

[ozymandius]

3. Oil prices fall below $61 a barrel

SINGAPORE - Oil prices edged lower in Asian trading Wednesday on continued mild winter weather in the United States, a major consumer of heating oil and gasoline.

Light, sweet crude for February delivery dropped 13 cents to $60.92 a barrel in Asian electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange mid-afternoon in Singapore. The contract rose 2 cents to settle at $61.07 a barrel Tuesday in light electronic trading.

Brent crude contract for February delivery rose 24 cents to $60.68 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange in London.

"The warm U.S. weather is expected to depress heating fuel demand," said Victor Shum, an analyst with Purvin & Gertz in Singapore. Temperatures in New York City on New Year's Day hit a peak of 54 degrees, much warmer than normal.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

4. Norway to purchase greenhouse gas quotas

OSLO, Norway - Norway plans to buy greenhouse gas quotas for public officials when they fly aboard to help curb global warming, Prime Minister Jens Stoltenberg said.

In his annual News Year's Day speech Monday evening, Stoltenberg said the proposal would probably make the Norwegian government the first in the world to buy such quotas for international air travel.

"In parts of the country, we have had the warmest autumn and winter months in 100 years," the prime minister said in his speech. "This is a warming we must take seriously. We fear that something is wrong with the weather."

Under the Kyoto climate treaty that went into force last February, 35 industrialized nations committed themselves to reducing or limiting output of six gases, chiefly carbon dioxide, a byproduct of burning coal and oil products. International air travel is not covered by the Kyoto agreement.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070102/ap_on_sc/norway_greenhouse_gas_1

[54anickel]

23. US reliance on Opec highest in 15 years

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/50129e5e-9a88-11db-bbd2-0000779e2340.html

US dependence on the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries for its oil imports has risen to its highest level in 15 years, following Angola’s arrival this week as the 12th member of the oil producers’ group.

Angola’s entry was agreed at the Opec meeting in Abuja, Nigeria, last month, and was formalised on Monday. The African country is the first new member to join the oil cartel since 1975.

The move comes at a time when Opec is trying to exert more influence, as seen in its decision at the December meeting to cut 500,000 barrels a day from its output from February.

Including Angola, Opec now supplies more than 54 per cent of the oil imports of the developed countries, its highest level for five years. For the US, the increase is even sharper: at more than 52 per cent, Opec’s share of US oil imports is at its highest since 1992.

Angola is particularly significant because it is one of the fastest-growing producers. Reasonable projections suggested it would have provided about a quarter of the total increase in non-Opec oil production this year.

snip>

However, Angola’s entry into Opec is unlikely to have much impact on the price of oil. It has yet to agree a production limit with the group, and Opec officials have suggested that its planned production increase is likely to be accommodated by the group. As a result, the global balance of supply and demand is not expected to change. As one Opec official put it: “It is just a question of moving Angola’s production from one column into the other.”

Edward Morse, chief energy economist of Lehman Brothers, suggested Angola’s entry could cause problems for the group.

more...

Hmmm, probably unrelated, but didn't I just read somewhere that Chimpy has greatly increased $$$ to Africa? Never did catch the details as to where the $$$ was going. :shrug:

[54anickel]

24. Corn May Top 10-Year High, Soybeans Rise on Fuel Use (Update1)

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=avi_0sLoD0V0&refer=exclusive

Jan. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Corn futures in Chicago may rise above a 10-year high and soybeans may extend a rally as demand increases for alternative fuels made from crops.

Twenty of 26 traders, farm advisers and grain merchants surveyed Dec. 29 by Bloomberg said to buy both commodities. Corn advanced 1.6 percent last week, the third straight gain, and jumped a record 81 percent in 2006. Soybeans climbed 3.4 percent, ending the year up almost 14 percent.

Rising demand for alternative fuels is eroding supplies of crops normally used for animal feed or food processing. U.S. production capacity for corn-based ethanol, already at a record, may double in the next two years, and the government said last month demand for biodiesel made from soybean oil may rise 17 percent in 2007. The U.S. is the largest producer and exporter of both crops.

``The fundamental story of the increasing number of ethanol plants will carry corn prices higher,'' said Jerry Gidel, a market analyst for North American Risk Management Services Inc. in Chicago.

snip>

``Global vegetable-oil prices could go through the roof in the next 12 months,'' Baize said. ``If all the planned biodiesel plants were to come on line in the next two years, it would consume 45 percent of the exports from the top five vegetable oil exporters and leave little left over for food.''

more...

[54anickel]

25. Consequences of scarce oil to go far beyond costly gas

http://www.azcentral.com/business/columns/articles/0102biz-talton0102.html

Sakhalin Island, a bleak strip off the Pacific Coast of Siberia, was a penal colony under the tsar and the Soviets. Now, it's marketed for tourists, hardy ones at least. With its nasty weather and isolation, Sakhalin seems a most unlikely spot where one of the key conflicts of the 21st century would show itself.

But offshore there are big natural-gas and oil fields. A consortium led by Royal Dutch Shell has spent years working to develop the Sakhalin 2 field, but late last month, Shell sold its majority share. It didn't do it willingly, but only after months of threats from the Kremlin. The lead company will now be Gazprom, the gas giant backed by the Russian government.

Shell received what analysts consider a fair price, $7.45 billion. But this was hardly a transaction between willing parties in the free market. The deal was so politically explosive that it came only after months of negotiations between Russia and Britain, the Netherlands and Japan. (Shell's two junior partners, Mitsui and Mitsubishi, also cut back their stakes in the project in favor of Gazprom.)

The affair received scant attention in the United States, the world's largest consumer of oil. But it illustrates a future that will challenge not only companies such as Shell, but also America's foreign policy, economy and individual consumers. It illustrates some stark truths that are operative now, not some possibility for the far future thrown out by wonks with bad attitudes. Higher prices at the gas pump may be one of the most benign outcomes.

snip>

The long-feared "new competition" for energy resources is happening, and nobody knows it better than Russian President Vladimir Putin. To be fair to Putin, Shell had been criticized for its slowness in developing the challenging Sakhalin field, and there were some legitimate environmental concerns.

But Putin has made it clear that energy will be the weapon of the new Russia. Threats of energy cutoffs to its neighbors have been only one face of this strategy. Gaining clear control of Sakhalin is another. Meanwhile, China is spreading its influence around the developing world in the hunt for resources, supporting rogue regimes in Iran and Sudan in exchange for oil.

This new era will be unstable and potentially dangerous, especially when paired with the environmental and economic consequences of fossil-fuel-driven climate change.

more...

[ozymandius]

5. Futures point higher on Wal-Mart, oil's decline

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks were set to start the year higher on Wednesday after a better-than-expected sales forecast by Wal-Mart Stores Inc.(NYSE:WMT - news) and a drop in oil prices.

Wal-Mart estimated over the weekend that December same-store sales rose 1.6 percent, beating forecasts in the crucial holiday shopping period.

Crude oil slipped toward $60 a barrel as mild weather in the U.S. Northeast lessened demand for fuel there.

In other Wal-Mart news, The Wall Street Journal reported the discount retailer would start moving many of its 1.3 million workers from predictable shifts to a system based on how many customers are in stores at a given time.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/markets_stocks_dc

[54anickel]

9. Big rally seen at Wall St. start (Check out them futures!!)

http://money.cnn.com/2007/01/03/markets/stockswatch2/index.htm

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- U.S. stocks were poised for a big opening rally to start 2007 trading Wednesday as investors prepared to pour fresh money into markets coming off a big year.

At 7:13 a.m. ET, Nasdaq and S&P futures were sharply higher.

U.S. light crude oil was 61 cents lower at $60.44 a barrel in electronic trading.

Treasury prices were little changed, with the 10-year note yield holding steady at around 4.68 percent. The dollar was higher against the euro and the yen.

News over the four-day market holiday, which was extended by the funeral for former President Ford, could affect stocks at the start of trading. Art Hogan, chief market analyst at Jefferies & Co., said U.S. futures are probably being helped by gains posted in overseas markets on Tuesday.

"We're playing a little catch-up," he said. "Markets across the globe had a pretty good day yesterday. And Wal-Mart's commentary over the weekend suggests we're looking at the Christmas shopping season being better than expected. In general, it's a start of the new year and a new influx of cash."

more...

Futures listed here - http://money.cnn.com/data/premarket/

[ozymandius]

6. Wall Street eyes broad data for new year

NEW YORK - The first trading week of the year may be a short one, but it may help determine whether the stock market's record-breaking run will continue or melt down in 2007.

The three days will be filled with data on employment, the manufacturing and service sectors, and sales figures from retailers and automakers. These will provide clues to Wall Street's big question: Is economic growth still cooling, or starting to heat up?

During the last trading week of 2006, despite thin holiday trading volumes, the Dow Jones industrial average rose above 12,500 for the first time after a promising report on new home sales suggested the economy may be turning around. If the first week of January brings good news, the Dow could hurtle further into record territory, extending its fourth-quarter rally.

Hearty economic growth may not line investors' pockets, however, if it leads the
Federal Reserve to believe Americans can withstand an interest rate hike. Such a move by policy makers has the potential to stop the market's rally because of fears that higher rates will crimp consumer spending and deal a further blow to the housing market by making mortgages harder to pay off.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070101/ap_on_bi_ge/wall_street_week_ahead

[ozymandius]

7. Good morning everyone.

:donut: :donut: :donut:

...and welcome to 2007, warts and all...

I hope everyone had a wonderful weekend with celebrations, or lack thereof, to your liking. It was a pleasure for me this year not living in a neighborhood where neighbors use firearms to announce the stroke of midnight. Those bullets have to come down somewhere - you know.

Work needs me there a bit early today. Have a great day watching the Casino spin. Catch you this evening.

Ozy :hi:

[NC_Nurse]

8. Good morning, Ozy!

Happy New Year to you as well! :hi:

Thanks for keeping this thread going. I try to check it every day after work. This is my year to get OUT of debt! :-)

[AnneD]

26. Morning Marketeers,

:donut::donut::donut: and Lurkers. Coffee and donuts on me today. Happy and prosperous new year to you all. Were to start on this New Year-the time I was away was so busy......

1. We finally left the evil slumlord's clutches. It will take me at least one more week to settle in, but we are so much happier.

2. I went only $30 over my Christmas shopping budget (all paid in cash) and the world didn't end. Everyone I told took things well and were a bit relived-esp family. We focused on the kids and charity. We feel better for it and we won't be having ugly bills in the mail.

3. Brother is celebrating his sobriety a day at a time. I went to an AA meeting with him and met some great folks. I have a lot of respect for those folks. He should be getting disability beginning this month-and it has been long over due for him. Things are looking up for him after so many years.

4. I knew that the woman that I knew as Grandma was not my true grandmother (though she will always be special to me). My true grandmother died when dad was 2. I had been told that she was Indian (Cherokee). Well who in American doesn't claim to have Indian in them-it's like a cliche.
Well, Brother and SIL did the leg work and after 3 yrs-he now has a tribal role card. I am kicking myself in the butt that I never did it-so my New Year's resolution is to get the ball rolling and do the paperwork. It will be easier for me. Brother says he gets the best treatment from the Indian Health Services center in Ft Worth. They really have done wonders for him and his disabilities.

5. I had never given it much thought, but finding out a bit about my origins is like finding a missing jigsaw puzzle piece. The picture becomes clearer and certain things make more sense to me now. My gifts (weird as they sometimes may be) seem to be an extension of my ancestors. That has given me more piece of mind.

6. There is a new group in charge in Washington and I intend to remind them often and loudly who brought them to the dance.

7. While I agree that President Ford was a good happenstance as an unelected leader-I beg to disagree that pardoning Nixon was a mistake. It set a bad precedent-that our leaders cannot be prosecuted for their crimes. Would Bush, Cheney, et al. thought twice if they knew they could be prosecuted. Considering these guys were in Ford's inner circle-I think so. I was around and politically active then, so I do have some first hand knowledge. Of course it would have been a hard and bitter pill to swallow-but how much easier is it to take care of the problem as soon as the first symptoms appear. Rust never dies and this cancerous attitude will continue to worsen.

Well, brothers and sisters-that sums up the events and the thoughts I had during my break. I missed all of you and you were never far from my thoughts, prayers, and well wishes. I hope 2007 treats you well and you use the information you receive here to your advantage.

Happy hunting and watch out for the bears.....

[54anickel]

10. The slide into managerial capitalism

http://www.prudentbear.com/articles/show/90

The SEC recently decided that executive stock options should be disclosed in the table of management compensation only over the life of the deal, not up-front. It knew it was being naughty, so it announced this the Friday before Christmas. Only the unsleeping vigilance of incoming House Financial Services Committee Chairman Barney Frank (D.-MA), ever watchful for malfeasance among Republicans and big corporations, awakened the media to this new attack on shareholder rights.

Management and shareholders are natural opponents. Always have been, always will be. After an entrepreneur has constructed a company, and sold it to outside shareholders, subsequent management consists of hired hands whose main objective can easily become to appropriate as much of the shareholders’ property as possible. The SEC’s new rule assists management in this effort, since it enables it to disguise large stock option grants in the year they are given, reporting them only in later years when they will be regarded as “water under the bridge.”

snip>

If there are no controls on management embezzling shareholder property beyond management’s self-restraint, then we are no longer in a society in which property rights are respected. Barney Frank made this point in response to the SEC’s decision. Culturally and politically, I would never have expected to agree with Frank, but I do this time. Managerial capitalism is the system practiced in Boris Yeltsin’s Russia, under which the oligarchs made themselves billionaires by fraudulent privatizations of state property. There is no reason to suppose than a move to managerial capitalism in the United States will work any better than that did.

Needless to say, this change in environment has had the usual Darwinian effect in changing the nature of U.S. corporate top managers. Intelligence is no longer a particular asset, since its benefits are primarily long term. Thus only seven of today’s Fortune Top 50 CEOs went to top-tier colleges (Ivy League plus Stanford and MIT) an unimaginably small percentage a generation ago (though some followed an undistinguished undergraduate education with an elite business school, where intelligence appears to be less essential). Conversely, aggression is absolutely vital, particularly when combined with a lack of scruples. Higher stress and higher rewards in the executive suite have naturally resulted in behavior deterioration. Dennis Kozlowski, he of the $6,000 shower curtain, former CEO of Tyco, a graduate of Seton Hall University now serving 8 to 25 years in jail, is the archetypal CEO of the modern era.

Solutions? There aren’t many. Institutional investors need to band together against management in shareholder votes far more than they do currently. Most important, every detail of management’s arrangements with the company needs to be put to a separate shareholder vote, as does the appointment of the auditors (as I have written previously, proposals to carry out audits should be presented to shareholders directly, not to management). The poison pill and merger moratorium laws need to be removed, if necessary by Constitutional amendment specifying that corporations must be run for the primary benefit of shareholders.

more...

[54anickel]

11. Workers of the World May Get Bigger Share of Prosperity in 2007

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=apK8Eq_S1dj4&refer=us

Jan. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Workers of the world are demanding a bigger share of global prosperity, and this year they may get it.

Political shifts in the U.S., Europe and Asia increase the chances that 2007 will bring labor higher pay and stronger job protection after five years in which its share of economic gains fell. ``The pendulum of economic power might well begin to shift from capital back to labor,'' says Stephen S. Roach, chief global economist with Morgan Stanley in New York.

While that's good news for workers, the result may be a squeeze on corporate profits and stock prices, economists say. Roach, for one, foresees ``a very challenging and difficult environment for global stock markets,'' with heightened risks of protectionism, accelerating inflation and higher interest rates.

Labor's advocates argue that workers have been left behind while business owners have benefited disproportionately from the strongest world economy since the 1970s. Among the Group of Seven major industrialized economies, workers' share of national income shrank to a record-low 54 percent last year, while the share going to profits rose to 16 percent from 10 percent five years earlier, according to Morgan Stanley research.

Wages in the dozen nations sharing the euro barely shifted last year even as the region, which expanded yesterday to include Slovenia, enjoyed its strongest growth in six years. ``Economic data is so good that employees must have a share in the success they've helped to bring about,'' says Juergen Peters, head of IG Metall, Germany's largest labor union.

`A Seismic Reaction'

The disparity is fueling what Sean Sweeney, director of the Cornell Global Labor Institute in New York, calls ``a seismic reaction brewing to the maldistribution of wealth.''

more...

[54anickel]

17. Global super-union within a decade, says Amicus chief

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,9069-2525364,00.html

An international trade union, working in at least three countries, could be created within a decade, the leader of one of Britain’s biggest unions has predicted.
Amicus, which has 1.1 million members and is soon to merge with the T&G, has forged solidarity agreements with IG Metall in Germany and two American unions, the Machinists and the United Steel Workers. The T&G also has links with the SEIU, the US service industry union.

Derek Simpson, general secretary of Amicus, said: “Our aim is to create a powerful single union that can transcend borders to challenge the global forces of capital. I envisage a functioning, if loosely federal, multinational trade union organisation within the next decade.”

One of Amicus’s predecessor unions, the AEEU, held merger talks with IG Metall seven years ago but the idea was put on ice.

Unions are increasingly keen to forge international links in an attempt to match up to globalised industry. Their intention is to force multinational companies to deal with one union rather than be able to make changes in one country and not consult unions elsewhere.

The super-union formed from the merger of Amicus and the T&G will have nearly two million members. If it goes on to merge with the other unions with which there are now alliances, the overall organisation would have a membership of 7.6 million.

more...

[Demeter]

65. Take That, Multinationals!

It was only a question of time....

[54anickel]

12. Banks’ Leases to Hedge Funds Are Questioned

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/01/02/business/02hedge.html?_r=2&ref=business&oref=slogin&oref=slogin

snip>

Like a few other big investment banks, UBS leases space to ambitious young hedge fund traders as a temporary home, complete with receptionists, espresso machines and consultants to help manage their information systems.

In return, the banks hope the hedge fund hotel guests may become big clients.

Some regulators, however, are growing concerned about the relationship between the banks and their hedge fund hotel guests, looking at whether the banks might be using the real estate relationship as a way to entice hedge funds to do business with them, possibly at the expense of their investors.

William F. Galvin, the Massachusetts secretary of state, has subpoenaed UBS and is examining other banks with hedge fund hotels in Boston to determine how they are charging for their services. He is looking at whether hedge funds are paying higher than normal trading fees to banks to compensate them for the office space and failing to disclose this expense to investors.

“It’s a conflict of interest issue,” Mr. Galvin said.

UBS, which declined to comment, is the leader in this business, with 400,000 square feet of hedge fund hotels in a number of cities. Bear Stearns is also active, with space for rent in New York, Boston, San Francisco and Los Angeles.

While the state investigation is in a preliminary stage and may not lead to any specific charges, at its heart is a thorny issue that has dogged regulators for decades. Money managers, including mutual funds and hedge funds, often pay Wall Street with “soft dollars” — inflated commissions that include the cost of trading (typically 1 to 2 cents a share) plus an additional few cents a share that can be directed to pay for research and other services.

snip>

Soft dollars are controversial because clients pay for the higher commissions, while the services often benefit the manager the most. Higher commissions result in greater expenses for the fund and potentially lower returns for investors.

more...

[54anickel]

13. UPDATE 3-Gold falls on profit-taking, awaits U.S. data

http://today.reuters.com/news/articleinvesting.aspx?type=goldMktRpt&storyID=2007-01-03T113141Z_01_L03115045_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-PRECIOUS-UPDATE-3.XML&pageNumber=1&imageid=&cap=&sz=13&WTModLoc=InvArt-C1-ArticlePage1

LONDON, Jan 3 (Reuters) - Gold drifted lower on Wednesday after hitting a one-month high, with investors taking profits ahead of the release of key U.S. data and minutes from Federal Reserve's policy meeting.

Gold was also under pressure because of a marginal rise in the dollar against the euro, weaker oil prices and a decline in base metals prices, but dealers saw a limited drop in gold.

"Gold may be drifting a couple of more dollars towards low $630s, but I am still fairly friendly towards it. I think the market has got the room to move on the upside," a precious metals analyst in London said.

Dealers awaited the Institute for Supply Management's reading on the manufacturing sector and the Fed's meeting, due on Wednesday, for cues on the dollar outlook.

snip>

The market also noted some gold buying by a European central bank last month, a period which saw selling of the metal by other central banks in the region under an agreement that limits gold sales.

more...

[54anickel]

22. Gold edges higher as dollar backs off highs

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/gold-edges-higher-dollar-gives/story.aspx?guid=%7B080A85C0%2D26C0%2D41B8%2DA774%2D26893070B27B%7D&tool=1&dist=bigcharts&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures edged higher early Wednesday as the dollar backed off early highs, pressured by labor market data suggesting weaker-than-expected jobs growth in December.

Gold for February delivery was last up $1.40 at $639.40 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. On Tuesday, the contract gained in electronic trade with the New York Mercantile Exchange closed to observe a day of mourning for former president Gerald Ford. Gold closed out 2006 on Friday with a 23% gain on the year.

Gold moved higher as the dollar surrendered early gains after the ADP employment report showed private-sector employment fell by 40,000 in December, the first decline in nearly four years.

The report, provided by payroll processor Automatic Data Processing Inc., suggests that Friday's jobs report will be much weaker than economists are expecting. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch are expecting payrolls - both public- and private-sector - rose by 103,000 for December.

Further supporting gold was talk in the market that one of the legacy central banks in the euro zone has been buying gold. The European Central Bank played down the speculation, saying some gold was purchased for technical purposes but that the move does not represent a break with policy.

more...

Strange, the buck hasn't really pulled back all that much
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=s

Last trade 83.58 Change +0.33 (+0.40%)

Settle Time 13:00 Open 83.26

Previous Close 83.25 High 83.64

Low 83.17 2007-01-03 09:24:38, 30 min delay

[Ghost Dog]

42. ECB member Central Bank buys gold but market little affected

http://www.mineweb.net/whats_new/549651.htm

LONDON (Mineweb.com) --According to a report in the Daily Telegraph in London, an unnamed ECB member Central Bank bought gold at the end of 2006 to bolster its reserves. If this is indeed the case – and it does appear to have been confirmed from official sources – this might be seen as a major departure by one of the European Central Banks which have, for the most part, been selling off their gold reserves over the past few years.

The purchase was made during the week ending December 22nd and has been described by an ECB spokesman as an end-of-year technical adjustment in an attempt to defuse any significance in the purchase. The amount purchased by the Bank was said to be a fairly small 2 tonnes.

The initial reaction of the gold market yesterday was to mark the price of gold up to breach the $640 mark briefly, although the market has since discounted any significance in the move given that it has fallen back quite sharply in trading today.

Although the Central Bank in question has not been named, some suspicion has fallen on Italy which has pursued a different reserve strategy in relation to the other ECB banks – most notably with a shift of 20 percent of its reserves from the dollar into sterling in 2005, which now seems extremely prescient given the appreciation of the pound against the dollar over the period. Other possibilities would seem to be Greece or one of the smaller member banks.

/..

[Ghost Dog]

15. Europe edges lower in cautious trade

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/05c33cf2-9b08-11db-aa70-0000779e2340.html

European equity markets were a little lower by midday on Wednesday as profits were taken following the previous session’s strong rally.

By midday, the FTSE Eurofirst 300 was down 0.1 per cent at 1,500.28, while the CAC 40 in Paris was 0.2 per cent lower at 5,604.19 and London’s FTSE 100 fell 0.1 per cent to 6,305.9.

Frankfurt’s Xetra Dax was fractionally lower at 6,664.75 despite German unemployment falling from 10.1 per cent to 9.8 per cent, its biggest fall since reunification.

Swiss markets were closed on Tuesday, when the rest of Europe enjoyed a session of strong gains, so the SMI index was playing catch up. The benchmark index gained 1.2 per cent to 8,889.92 and Swiss stocks topped the Eurofirst 300 leaderboard.

/...

[Ghost Dog]

43. Europe edges higher as banks rally

http://mwprices.ft.com/custom/ft2-com/html-story.asp?dateid=39085.4988194444-886586078&guid={505EC99B-A594-4E32-A7DC-F63F345FBDB5}

European equity markets responded to strong gains on Wall Street on Wednesday, offsetting earlier profit taking. The FTSE Eurofirst 300 gained 1 point, or 0.1 per cent, to 1,502.83. Frankfurt’s Xetra Dax 30 ended 0.2 per cent higher at 6,691.3 and the FTSE 100 in London was 0.1 per cent firmer at 6319.0. Paris’ CAC 40 underperformed after a stronger than average showing throughout the previous session. It lost 0.1 per cent to 5,610.9.

...

Steelmakers fell after Credit Suisse downgraded the sector from “market weight” to “underweight”. Strategist Michael Shillaker said: “With US imports beginning to fall under weak demand and exports from Asia accelerating, we are concerned for European steel producers in 2007.” Paris-listed Mittal Steelfell 4 per cent to €31.55, while Germany’s ThyssenKruppshed 2 per cent to €35.96. Salzgitter, also of Germany, fell 2.3 per cent to €99.31.

Mining and metals stocks were lower as base metal prices fell on commodity exchanges. London-listed miners were the worst hit, while Norsk Hydro, the Norwegian aluminium producer, fell 3.2 per cent to NKr188.50.

Merrill Lynch was “underweight” on European oil refiners because of “significant near term earnings risk”. Analyst Hootan Yazhari said: “Since early October, European refining margins have fallen by over 65 per cent, none of which has been reflected in sector performance.”

/..

[54anickel]

16. Have to share this thread I came across over the weekend on Edward Bernays.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=364&topic_id=3020366#3023857

Lots of interesting links and discussion in that thread. I found the BBC documentary "The Century of the Self" intriguing. http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-2637635365191428174

I used to have some lively debates with a psychology professor who was a huge fan of Freud. She considered him THE authority, the TRUTH, the greatest thing since sliced bread. (She was a wack-o :crazy:) I would tell her he was very good at wielding his trade, especially when it came to promoting himself and ideas and that she was living proof of how good he was at it. I was sort of talking outta my ass just to set her off. Funny to find out there really was a great PR man behind him - his nephew, Edward Bernays. Wonder if I can track her down and e-mail the documentary link to her. :evilgrin:

[AnneD]

28. For shame, for shame.....

54anickel. One of the first things I learned as a Nurse was not to put your hand in the crazy-it just gets all over you and you end up in a mess.:evilgrin:

One of the odd facts/random bits of useless info in my memory was the Freud/Bernays connection. One of the oldest truisms in marketing is that sex sells-guess this proves it.

[54anickel]

30. Morning AnneD. Good to see you back.

You know what really surprised me in that documentary (near the end) was just how involved Bernays was behind the scene in the fight against FDR and the new deal. Guess that re-edumaction of "What's good for the corporation is good for me" dates back a bit further than I realized.

I still like to put my hand in the crazy though, I find it entertaining. Though I have to admit it has gotten stuck all over me. I still deal with lots of residual crazy-goo. Guess I'm just a glutton for punishment.

[54anickel]

18. Housing slump seen hurting economy in 2007

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/16438094/

WASHINGTON - The slowdown that hit the U.S. economy will persist into 2007 as the once red-hot housing market continues to suffer through a serious correction, analysts say.

As the new year begins, many private analysts are forecasting the economy will perform at the slowest pace in five years, a full percentage-point lower than growth in 2006.

One such analyst is Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at Global Insight, a forecasting firm. “The recession in the housing market does not seem to have had much of an impact on the consumer,” he said. “The bad news on housing has been offset by good news on wages, jobs and the stock market.”

While the slowdown will cause the unemployment rate to rise, economists remain hopeful that the economy will remain on track to achieve the Federal Reserve’s hoped-for “soft landing.” That is described as a scenario in which growth slows enough to dampen inflation but not trigger a recession.

But there are plenty of risks that could make the landing more bumpy — everything from another surge in oil prices to a more severe collapse in housing, which could rattle consumer confidence. At the moment, though, economists like Behravesh and David Wyss of Standard & Poor’s of New York feel there is only a one-in-four chance that the current slowdown will turn into an actual recession.

more....

2007, the year of surprised e-CON-o-mist again?

[54anickel]

19. 9:37 - open for bidness

Dow 12,528.44 65.29 (0.52%)
Nasdaq 2,436.42 21.13 (0.87%)
S&P 500 1,423.27 4.97 (0.35%)
10-yr Bond 4.65% 0.06
30-yr Bond 4.7570% 0.0610
NYSE Volume 199,791,000
Nasdaq Volume 156,686,000

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +6.7. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +13.0.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +7.8. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +15.0. Bullish bias persists in pre-market trading, and as such, expectations for the cash market to open higher remain intact. Aside from expected leadership coming from the Consumer Discretionary sector, following the surprise resignation of Home Depot’s CEO and amid further deterioration in oil prices (-1.4% at $60.20/bbl), a drop in interest rates is likely to provide a floor of support for rate-sensitive Financials. Merrill Lynch upgrading U.S. healthcare and U.S. consumer staples stocks to Overweight from Market Weight are also contributing to this morning's upbeat sentiment.

08:30 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +7.1. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +15.0. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures are off their best levels, following a disappointing read on labor conditions, but still trade well above fair value. Within the last 15 minutes the monthly ADP employment report showed that private-sector employment fell by 40,000 in December, the first decline since July 2003. Since the data suggests nonfarm payrolls likely fell by about 25,000 last month, compared to economists' forecasts of an expected 110,000 increase in Friday's more closely-watched government report, bonds have rallied on what appears to be a sudden slowing of employment. The 10-year note is up 9 ticks to yield 4.64%.

Be that as it may, recent reports that Home Depot (HD) Chairman and CEO Robert Nardelli has resigned is acting as an offset to an ADP report that has yet to establish itself as a credible indicator of economic health. Fellow Dow component Wal-Mart (WMT) saying that December same-store sales rose more than expected is also providing an additional vote of confidence about the health of the consumer, especially during the crucial holiday spending season.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +8.7. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +15.2. Early indications suggest stocks will kick off the New Year on an upbeat note. Strong gains in overseas markets a day earlier, when U.S. equity markets were closed to mark the death of President Ford, combined with pent-up buying interest, positive analyst commentary, falling oil prices and seasonality factors, are contributing to the positive disposition. As a reminder, today marks the second-to-last trading day of the classic year-end Santa Claus rally which, according to the Stock Trader's Almanac, has resulted in an average return of 1.5% for the S&P 500 since 1950.

06:17 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +8.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +15.8.

06:17 am : FTSE...6308.40...-2.50...-0.0%. DAX...6680.59...-0.54...-0.0%.

06:17 am : Nikkei...Holiday......... Hang Seng...20413.39...+103.21...+0.5%.

[54anickel]

20. Bob Nardelli Abruptly Resigns As Chairman, CEO of Home Depot

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070103/home_depot_nardelli.html?.v=9

ATLANTA (AP) -- Bob Nardelli abruptly resigned Wednesday as chairman and chief executive of The Home Depot Inc. after a six-year tenure that saw the world's largest home improvement store chain post big profits but left investors disheartened by poor stock performance.

Home Depot shares climbed nearly 4 percent in pre-market trading.

Nardelli's sudden departure was stunning in that he told The Associated Press as recently as Sept. 1 that he had no intention of leaving, and a key director also said that the board was pleased with Nardelli despite the uproar by some investors.

snip>

Nardelli has been under fire by investors for his hefty pay and the poor performance of the company's stock price during his tenure. He became CEO in December 2000.

Home Depot said Nardelli will be replaced by Frank Blake, the company's current vice chairman, effective immediately.

more...

[54anickel]

21. Credit Managers' Confidence Plummets

The monthly Credit Managers Index stands at its lowest level since April 2003.

http://www.cfo.com/article.cfm/8483790/c_8484720?f=home_todayinfinance&x=1

Confidence in the economy among corporate credit managers has apparently been slipping for quite a while. The evidence: the monthly Credit Managers Index, which fell for the fifth consecutive month in December, now stands at its lowest level since April 2003.

What's more, on a year-over-year basis, nine of the 10 components that comprise the index fell. The drop has been driven mostly by deterioration in the services sector, according to The National Association of Credit Management, which has conducted the monthly survey of the business economy from the standpoint of commercial credit and collections since January 2003.

The data "strongly suggests" a slowing economy, according to NACM, which pointed out that seven of the 10 components that comprise the index declined in the most recent month.

For the CMI survey, the association asks about 500 trade credit managers to rate favorable and unfavorable factors in their monthly business cycle. Favorable factors include sales, new credit applications, dollar collections, and amount of credit extended. Unfavorable ones include rejections of credit applications, accounts placed for collections, dollar amounts of receivables beyond terms, and bankruptcy filings.

more...

[54anickel]

27. Private-equity firms expecting little slowdown

http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/chi-0701020069jan02,0,4850519.story?coll=chi-business-hed

snip>

"The opportunity for private equity to increase its influence on the U.S. economy is significant and growing," it said.

One of the reasons is institutional investors have a greater appetite for private equity, giving buyout firms ample capital to put to work in 2007.

The $223.3 billion in private-equity funds raised in the first nine months of 2006 was up 13 percent from the same period of 2005, said Thomson Financial, which expects 2006 will be remembered as a record year.

One institutional investor enamored with private equity is the Teachers' Retirement System of the State of Illinois. As of Sept. 30, it had 4.1 percent of its fund in private equity.

And the system wants the flexibility to do more. On Dec. 8, its board of trustees boosted the target allocation for private equity to 8 percent from 6 percent. Private equity, it said, is among its best-performing investments, with returns of 27.7 percent for the year ended Sept. 30.

snip>

"Interest rates are low, and it doesn't look like they'll rise rapidly," he said. "And credit markets are as liquid as I've ever seen them," providing more firepower to leveraged-buyout firms.

And it might not be long before the U.S. private-equity industry, which has generally made friendly overtures to companies as it seeks access to their books, starts showing its claws through hostile takeovers.

more...

Sounds like some sort of cannibalism or something - eating their young?

[54anickel]

29. Drug costs imperil Brazil AIDS fight

http://www.boston.com/news/world/latinamerica/articles/2007/01/03/drug_costs_imperil_brazil_aids_fight/

snip>

AIDS activists say that ballooning drug prices must not be allowed to undermine a free, universal drug program that inspired Thailand, Uganda, and other nations to provide free antiretrovirals. Coupled with aggressive prevention efforts, including condom distribution to prostitutes and needle hand outs to drug addicts, Brazil's program slashed annual AIDS deaths in half to 11,000 in 2005, the latest year for which government figures were available.

It was a dramatic turnaround from the early 1990s, when Brazil's epidemic rivaled South Africa's, where 20 percent of adults now have the disease. Today, only 0.6 percent of the adult population is infected in Brazil -- a prevalence rate lower than in the United States. Through universal drug treatment, Brazil cut HIV-related hospitalizations by 80 percent in 2006, when compared with 1996, and saved a cumulative $1.7 billion in hospital costs over the past decade, officials say.

Activists and leaders of Brazil's pharmaceutical industry are pushing the government to cut burgeoning drug costs by making generics of drugs that are still under patent. Under a 2001 World Trade Organization declaration, any country may copy patented drugs if its government deems it necessary to protect public health.

Big multinational drug makers have fought to avoid "licensing," under which a government pays royalties to the makers to copy a drug. African nations have issued licenses, but pharmaceutical giants argue that Brazil is a middle-income country and should pay its fair share.

As the most populous nation in Latin America, "Brazil is so big that if they take a stand . . . others like Venezuela, Argentina, and Bolivia might follow," said Guillaume Corpart-Muller, an analyst for InfoAmericas, a business intelligence firm with headquarters in Miami. "They could lead a movement," he added. "And that's pretty scary for manufacturers of branded drugs."

The Brazilian government has resisted licensing, fearing reprisals not only from pharmaceutical companies whose drugs they may not have the know-how to replicate but also from the countries in which the companies are based. The United States has trade regulations allowing it to retaliate against any country imperiling the business of a US company. If Brazil produced generics of patented US drugs, Washington could conceivably block Brazilian imports or suspend tariff waivers to the tune of billions of dollars.

more...



Bush Values Life - Until His Donors Call
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/david-sirota/bush-values-life-until-_b_37446.html

If someone asked you generically whether you "value life," you would probably simply say, "yes." That is, unless you were a member of the Bush administration and you were speaking candidly. If, somehow, you were that oxymoron, you would say "yes, I value life, but only if it means protecting our campaign donors' profit margins." You would say this because, as a member of this White House, you would be complicit in trying to quietly use the U.S. government's power to prevent affordable AIDS drugs from being used in the developing world.

Yes, as the Beltway media runs themselves out of breath chasing down those critical investigative stories about Barack Obama's workout schedule, our government is quietly trying to bully Thailand into backing off its plan to license generic versions of AIDS medicines for its disease-plagued population (A quick glance around the Internets suggests that the only major newspaper that even bothered to mention this is the Wall Street Journal - and that mention was buried at the bottom of a gossip column).

This particular effort is making pharmaceutical giant Merck angry, because if Thailand moves forward, it will be producing cheaper versions of drugs Merck regularly profiteers off of. It doesn't seem to matter that this move could save tens of thousands of lives. It doesn't seem to matter to the Bush administration that Thailand is merely exercising its specific rights under the very same "free" trade agreements it publicly champions - agreements that drug companies like Merck have used their clout pushing. All that seems to matter is that Merck has given millions to the Republican Party over the last decade, and now it's time for a little payback. Thus, instead of say, our government's Centers for Disease Control publicly congratulating Thailand for its aggressive moves to stamp out this plague that presents a global security threat, we get our government's trade officials demanding Thailand back off.

This kind of behavior, of course, is nothing new. In the interest of not creating work for myself, let me just cite a few excerpts from Hostile Takeover that shows how often this happens (the original citations are in the book).

Here's our government "valuing life" in Brazil in 2001:

In 2001 President Bush began pushing the so-called "Free Trade Area of the Americas." In the name of "free" trade, he stressed that the pact would remove all tariffs and widen NAFTA to cover the entire South American continent. "We've embraced a collective responsibility to break down the barriers of poverty disease," he said. "Open trade is essential foundation for that prosperity and that possibility." Yet, six months later, the Washington Post reported that the Bush administration was employing previously-negotiated restrictions in supposedly "free" trade treaties "to keep Brazil and other developing countries from securing broad rights to override patents and lower the prices of drugs for treating AIDS and other illnesses" plaguing their populations.

Here's our government "valuing life" right here at home:

In 2004, Abbott Laboratories jacked up the price of its key AIDS drug Norvir by 400 percent in one year, despite the drug being developed with $3.2 million of federal money. When Abbott faced questions about its move, the company's CEO said "Abbott is absolutely committed to ensuring that ... not a single patient goes without Norvir because of the re-pricing." Yet he refused to reverse the price hike. Activists then petitioned the government to invoke a 1980 law that authorizes other companies to manufacture lower-priced, generic copies of taxpayer-financed drugs to address emergency "health or safety needs." Not surprisingly, the petition was rejected by the Bush administration.

more...


Inside Abbott's Tactics To Protect AIDS Drug

I don't have a subscription and haven't been able to track down any other articles on this, so I'm afraid it's only a preview

http://online.wsj.com/google_login.html?url=http%3A%2F%2Fonline.wsj.com%2Farticle%2FSB116778411362865429.html%3Fmod%3Dgooglenews_wsj

In the fall of 2003, Abbott Laboratories grew worried about new competition to its flagship AIDS drug, Kaletra. Then it seized on an unusual weapon that helped Kaletra's global sales top $1 billion a year, even as it exposed Abbott to criticism that it was endangering patients.

The weapon was an older Abbott AIDS drug called Norvir. It is a key part of drug regimens that include rival companies' pills. Previously undisclosed documents and emails reviewed by The Wall Street Journal show how Abbott executives discussed ways to diminish the attraction of Norvir, with the goal of forcing patients to ...

[54anickel]

31. Billionaire boom in China as stock market soars

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20070103/bs_afp/chinastockspeople_070103062828

BEIJING (AFP) - Company executives in China were the big winners of last year's soaring stock market, with the top 50 executives worth nearly 40 billion yuan (5.1 billion dollars), according to state media.

None of the top 50 was worth less than 200 million yuan and half of the top 50 saw their stock portfolios break the 500 million yuan mark, the official Xinhua news agency reported.

snip>

The take off in executive fortunes has been set off by shareholder reforms which allow previously non-tradable state-owned shares to be converted into ordinary stock and turned into cash, the report said.

After stagnating for the past five years, China's stock markets finally boomed in the latter half of last year.

more...

[54anickel]

32. Bush Vows to Balance Budget by 2012, Cooperate With Democrats (Update1)

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a8_N7cNleGDo&refer=home

Jan. 3 (Bloomberg) -- President George W. Bush, facing a Democratic congressional majority for the first time in his presidency, promised to send lawmakers a budget plan that will balance federal accounts by 2012.

``Congress has changed,'' Bush said in remarks at the White House following a meeting with his Cabinet. ``Our obligations to the country haven't changed.''

Bush, outlining his agenda for the coming year, gave no hint about the direction he wants to take on the most pressing issue he faces: setting out a new U.S. strategy in Iraq. Lawmakers, including senior Republicans such as Senator Richard Lugar of Indiana, have warned the president that Congress must be consulted on the course ahead in the war.

Bush is pursuing a political strategy intended to try to maintain momentum for his initiatives. While pledging cooperation with Democrats, he warned against raising taxes as a path to balancing the budget.

For their part, Democrats led by incoming House Speaker Nancy Pelosi of California and Senate leader Harry Reid of Nevada plan a rush of 100 hours of legislative activity, some of which may collide with the White House.

Their agenda include raising the minimum wage rate, curbing some subsidies for oil and gas companies, ending the practice of slipping in pork barrel projects into legislation, and reducing student loan interest rates, among others. Bush has signaled his agreement on the minimum wage and today reaffirmed that he supports efforts to cut special spending projects, known as earmarks, by at least half in the next year.

Spending `Wisely'

more...

[54anickel]

33. HK braces itself as renminbi nears parity

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/6afbf6b2-99b0-11db-8b6d-0000779e2340.html

When the Chinese renminbi slips through the psychological threshold of Rmb7.8 to the US dollar, which may happen as early as this week, it will be a moment replete with symbolism for Hong Kong and the territory’s relationship with the mainland.

It will mark the first time in 13 years that China’s currency has traded above the level at which the Hong Kong dollar is pegged to the greenback.

Technically, the Hong Kong dollar, which is allowed by the territory’s monetary authority to trade in a band set at HK$7.75- HK$7.85 to the dollar, will remain more valuable than its mainland counterpart for a few more weeks, if not months.That is because the Hong Kong dollar has been trading at the lower end of its band, last closing at HK$7.778 to the dollar. The renminbi, meanwhile, is at Rmb7.805 to the US currency.

Nevertheless, sneaking past the threshold of Rmb7.80 to the dollar will mean that the renminbi has achieved de facto parity with the Hong Kong dollar, and it will be a matter only of months before it starts to leave the territory’s currency in its wake.

snip>

For Hong Kong, the practical effects of a stronger renminbi will be limited. Chinese tourists, on whom the local hospitality sector depends, will enjoy increased spending power. On the negative side of the ledger, Hong Kong imports most of its foodstuffs and other important raw materials from China, so a stronger renminbi will have an inflationary impact.

more...

[54anickel]

36. London Initial Share Offerings Surge to Record

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=atJ4ifwkwXio&refer=worldwide

Dec. 31 (Bloomberg) -- London Stock Exchange Plc looks set to beat NYSE Group Inc. in fundraising this year for the first time since 2000, raising 71 percent more than in 2005, according to figures from the London bourse.

The London exchange's main market and its AIM bourse, formerly known as the Alternative Investment Market, raised a record 27.9 billion pounds ($55 billion) in initial public offerings, the bourse said in an e-mailed statement.

The amount raised on the London exchange is almost 10 billion pounds more than the NYSE made in the year to the end of November, according to figures in the statement. December figures for the American markets aren't yet available.

``We're very proud that companies from the U.K. and 25 countries around the world'' use the market to raise capital, Martin Graham, director of markets at the London exchange, said in the statement.

By end of November, initial offerings totaled 25.8 billion pounds for the London bourse, compared with 18.4 billion pounds for NYSE Group, the statement said. Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing Ltd. raised 19.3 billion pounds as of the end of November. Nasdaq raised 6.7 billion pounds in initial offerings through October this year, according to the LSE.

First Since 2000

more...


Global stock, bond offerings hit record high in 2006: report
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20070102/bs_afp/usworldipostocks_070102181745

NEW YORK (AFP) - Global offerings of stocks and bonds shot to a record high of over seven trillion dollars in 2006, according to a Thomson Financial survey.

The deal-making frenzy extended to mergers and acquisitions which also soared to record heights last year, spurred by deals like AT and T's 85-billion-dollar takeover of rival BellSouth, the biggest telecommunications merger in US history, which gained final US approval on Friday.

"Fueled by growing corporate appetite to fund acquisitions, easy access to capital and soaring initial public offerings in emerging markets, worldwide volume of debt, equity and equity-related securities exceeded 7.64 trillion in 2006," the Thomson survey said.

"The fourth quarter of 2006 broke the 2.0-trillion-dollar mark, registering as the best quarter ever for underwriting volume," the report said.

more...


Meanwhile...

Record $150bn of de-listings in 2006
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/4bc3297c-99ca-11db-8b6d-0000779e2340.html

The value of companies taken private reached record levels in 2006, with New York and London’s stock markets taking the brunt of the $150bn of de-equitisation, according to figures from Thomson Financial.

However, new listings, especially from Russia and China, meant that the total value of capital raised on world markets outstripped the amount taken private by more than $100bn.

The value of companies taken private has almost trebled since 2004. The New York Stock Exchange saw a net withdrawal of listed capital of $38.8bn after public-to-private transactions are taken into account. Nasdaq suffered a net withdrawal of $11bn – almost twice its loss through de-equitisation in 2005.

Initial public offerings of US companies at $41bn were less than half the nearly $97bn of so-called public-to-privates where listed companies are bought out by private equity investors.

The emergence of the London Stock Exchange as a listing venue of choice for foreign domiciled companies led it to outstrip almost every other world exchange in 2006 in IPO activity.The value of its new listings was more than double its de-equitisations. However, London’s reliance on foreign business is highlighted by figures for British companies which raised less than $19bn through IPOs compared with $27bn of public-to-privates.

A separate Citigroup study shows the overall UK market continuing to shrink if share buy-backs are counted along with cash bids for companies. Citigroup calculates that the overall UK equities market shrank by about 3 per cent, roughly £40bn ($78bn), in 2006 as a result. Euronext and the Deutsche Börse bucked the mature markets’ de-equitisation trend with IPO growth. Analysts attributed this mainly to economic reform.

snip>

Analysts said de-equitisation is symptomatic of the credit cycle which makes debt so cheap that investors are encouraged to use it to buy earnings flows.

Consultants at McKinsey & Co, in a forthcoming bulletin to be published in Janaury, conclude that public companies “will need to raise their governance game if they are to compete with private equity”.

more...

[54anickel]

37. The Year Of The Junk Bond

http://www.forbes.com/home/personalfinance/2006/12/28/junk-bond-debt-pf-ii-in_ah_0101soapbox_inl.html

According in to the Chinese zodiac calendar, 2006 is the year of the dog. But in terms of high-yield investment, it has been anything but. In fact, 2006 could just as easily be called the year of the junk bond. High-yield bonds have surprised the market in almost every way imaginable.

Issues are up and defaults are down. Companies rated CCC or lower have issued over $34 billion of bonds this year compared to only $15 billion in 2005. According to S&P, the default rate for global speculative grade investments hit a 24-year record low of .94% in September. U.S. speculative grade debt is expected to close the year at a near record low of 1.4%.

And the good news doesn’t end there. Through the first three quarters of 2006 only 22 defaults on $6.67 billion of debt were recorded, compared to 23 defaults on an enormous $36.135 billion of debt in the comparable period of 2005. Junk markets outside of the U.S. have stabilized even further with default rates in Europe at 1.08% and emerging markets recording a minuscule default rate of .2% over the past 12 months, according to REI research.

And although demand has driven down yields from a peak of 12.2% in January, according to the Dow Jones indexes, high-yield debt rated CCC+ or below has returned an average of 11.3% through October, blowing away any other class of fixed-income investment over that same time.

snip>

To borrow a phrase from erstwhile Fed Chairman Greenspan, the market has been “irrationally exuberant” in its hunt for yield in the distressed debt market. Massive pools of private investment capital have created overwhelming demand for high-yield securities. As a result, this buying frenzy has created conditions ripe for a crash landing. The huge spreads for many of these high-yield sectors, such as the auto parts industry, exist due to a very real threat of bankruptcy. For the majority of debt issuers in this sector, a major overhaul of the U.S. car manufacturing industry has meant a massive reduction in revenues and left them scrambling to service debt and meet operating costs.

more...

[54anickel]

40. Junk Bond Boom Lures Crowd to Bulgarian Steel, Kiev Chickens

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=arIrTge7hXVY&refer=worldwide

Jan. 3 (Bloomberg) -- A dozen Merrill Lynch & Co. clients endured a flight to Serbia and a five-hour taxi ride last month on their way to visit a Soviet-era steel mill whose bonds were plunging.

Kremikovtzi AD's notes had just tumbled 30 percent after the Bulgarian steelmaker said it would post a $7 million loss for the year. Investors were alarmed because the company estimated a $34 million profit in April, when Merrill arranged the sale of 325 million euros ($427 million) of 12 percent bonds.

Investors bought Kremikovtzi's securities because those yields are hard to find outside emerging markets. Bondholders who used to get 24 percent on Xerox Corp. in Stamford, Connecticut, or Remy Cointreau SA in Paris now finance a Kiev chicken farm and a Moscow ball-bearing factory for half the rate of interest.

``People are having to go further and further down the ratings scale to get yield,'' said Alex Moss, who holds Kremikovtzi's bonds among the $94 billion of assets he helps oversee at Insight Investment Management in London. ``It was risky, but people thought they were getting paid for the risk.''

more...

[54anickel]

38. 12:13 lunchtime check-in

Dow 12,560.72 97.57 (0.78%)
Nasdaq 2,447.35 32.06 (1.33%)
S&P 500 1,426.49 8.19 (0.58%)
10-yr Bond 4.69% 0.02
30-yr Bond 4.7930% 0.0250
NYSE Volume 1,638,149,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,110,962,000

12:00 pm : Stocks are trading near session highs midday as pent-up buying interest, seasonal factors, plunging oil prices and more evidence of a soft landing kick off 2007 on an upbeat note.

With U.S. markets closed yesterday, while equity markets rallied around the world, investors feeling left behind and an influx of new fund inflows that typically hit the market on the first day of trading for the month/quarter/year have provided the initial floor of market support.

After contracting for the first time in more than three years in November, the ISM index rebounding to 51.4 in December has provided more confirmation that manufacturing is holding up nicely, helping to alleviate the worst of recession fears. The report has more than offset monthly ADP employment data that suggest Friday's closely-watched and more credible Dec. jobs report will disappoint.

From a sector standpoint, Technology is today's runaway winner as several of its most influential components (e.g. CSCO, INTC, GOOG, DELL, ORCL, and YHOO) post gains of more than 2.0%. Bargain hunting interest appears to be playing an added role behind the 3.0% surge in Intel (INTC 20.86 -0.61), last year's worst performing Dow component (-18%).

The Industrials sector is also providing some notable leadership with a gain of more than 1.0%. The unexpected increase in manufacturing activity is acting as the biggest source of sector support while Transports are benefiting from some analyst upgrades and a 3.6% sell-off in oil prices. Oil, which accounts for roughly 30% of the costs for airlines (+4.3%), is trading below $59/bbl for the first time since November 24 in large part due to more warm weather forecasts.

Consumer Discretionary, which has been in focus and garnering support following the surprise resignation of Home Depot's (HD 41.46 +1.30) CEO, is also benefiting from oil's decline while Consumer Staples is getting a lift after Wal-Mart (WMT 47.56 +1.38) said that December same-store sales rose more than expected. BTK +0.8% DJ30 +107.43 DJTA +2.6% DJUA +0.7% DOT +1.8% NASDAQ +34.95 NQ100 +1.7% R2K +0.9% SOX +1.9% SP400 +0.9% SP500 +9.28 XOI -2.1% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1048/1978/1.03 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1100/3055/930 mln

11:30 am : More of the same for stocks as the Nasdaq (+1.5%) continues to outpace its blue chip counterparts to the upside. With the tech-heavy Composite lagging the Dow and S&P 500 in 2006, which were up 16% and 14%, respectively, versus a 9.5% gain for the Nasdaq, it isn't all that surprising to see some bargain hunting interest take hold. Most notably has been a 2.8% surge in Intel (INTC 20.82 +0.57), which was the biggest laggard on the Dow Industrials last year with an 18% decline. Albeit posting an 11% gain in 2006, Google (GOOG 472.11 +11.63) surging 2.5% today, after Piper Jaffray raised their price target to $630 from $600 and rated the company their top pick for 2007, has investors jumping into another tech bellwether that is 8% off its all-time high of $513 (Nov. 22).DJ30 +110.97 DOT +1.6% NASDAQ +35.79 SP500 +9.33 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 992/1989/864 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1098/2794/724 mln

11:00 am : Stocks are holding steady at sharply higher levels as buyers remain in complete control of the action. Crude for February delivery now down 3.8% and slipping below $59/bbl for the first time since Nov. 24 is providing an additional level of market support. The National Weather Service calling for warmer temperatures through the 15th of January in the U.S. Northeast (the largest customer of heating oil) raises concerns among commodity traders about diminishing demand for heating oil. Since oil make up roughly 60% of the costs for chemical companies, the Materials sector recently turning positive is also helping to offset further consolidation in the Energy sector (-4.1%). DJ30 +102.70 NASDAQ +33.91 SP500 +9.15 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 917/2037/730 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1039/2705/604 mln

10:30 am : Equities extend their reach to the upside following an unexpected increase in manufacturing activity. After contracting for the first time in more than three years in November, the ISM index rebounded to 51.4 in December as a rise in new orders (to 52.1) and production (to 51.8) lend some additional support to an economy plagued by weakness in autos and housing. The prices paid index falling to 47.5%, coupled with a sell-off in oil prices (-3.2% at $59/bbl), also ease concerns on the inflation front. DJ30 +111.91 NASDAQ +32.14 SP500 +10.72 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 850/2051/516 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1029/2427/400 mln

10:00 am : The major averages are still on the offensive as the bulk of industry leadership remains positive. Of the eight sectors trading higher, Technology is pacing the way as several of its most influential components (e.g. CSCO, INTC, GOOG, AAPL, DELL, and YHOO) post gains of at least 1.0%. Health Care is also providing some notable leadership, fueled in part by an analyst upgrade on Merck (MRK 44.16 +0.56), while the rate-sensitive Financials sector takes full advantage of a decline in borrowing costs amid a rally in the Treasury market. Energy, though, is plunging more than 3.0% in sympathy with a 2.1% in oil prices (to below $60/bbl) and a slew of analyst downgrades (e.g. XTO -2.8%, NBR -3.9%, HES -2.7%, SUN -2.1%).DJ30 +66.61 NASDAQ +21.08 SP500 +5.52 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 739/2003/220 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 763/1729/112 mln

09:40 am : Stocks kick off the first trading day of 2007 on a positive note. With U.S. markets closed yesterday, while equity markets rallied around the world, investors feeling left behind and an influx of new fund inflows that typically hit the market on the first day of trading for the month/quarter/year are adding to the bullish disposition. On the corporate front, Home Depot (HD 41.25 +1.07) surging nearly 3%, following the surprise resignation of Chairman and CEO Robert Nardelli, and a 4% rise on shares of larger Dow component Wal-Mart (WMT 48.05 +1.87), after saying December same-store sales rose more than expected, are also contributing to the improved sentiment after the last two trading days of 2006 ended in the red. Home Depot was one of last year's worst performing Dow components.DJ30 +78.06 NASDAQ +24.27 SP500 +6.23 NASDAQ Vol 122 mln NYSE Vol 80 mln

[54anickel]

39. Even the buck is screaming to new highs

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=s

Last trade 83.96 Change +0.71 (+0.85%)

Settle Time 13:00 Open 83.26

Previous Close 83.25 High 83.98

Low 83.17 2007-01-03 12:13:37, 30 min delay


Gotta put an end to any speculation that the Fed is going to have to reduce rates in the near future!

[54anickel]

41. 2006 Wrap-Up (Last entry in the Credit Bubble Bulletin)

Some pretty scary stuff all the way down the page

http://www.prudentbear.com/articles/show/88

2006 Wrap-Up:

For the year, the S&P Homebuilding index declined 20%, while the NYSE Financial index gained almost 20%. Despite the marked slowdown in home construction, transactions and price inflation, the Morgan Stanley Consumer Index jumped 18%. The S&P SuperComposite Restaurants Index surged 21.6% and the Morgan Stanley Retail Index rose 16.5%.

I view 2006 was a decisive year in Credit, market and economic analysis. The ongoing Credit Bubble – certainly stoked this year by the perception of a timid “tightening” cycle’s imminent reversal prior to it ever having achieved actual tightened Financial Conditions – fueled sufficient liquidity to inflate U.S. financial stocks, along with a global M&A Bubble, an unprecedented Global Liquidity Glut, prevailing stock market speculation and inflation, and other inflationary distortions the world over (including ballooning central bank reserves and resulting rampant securities market speculation and inflation).

As an extraordinary year comes to its conclusion, determined analysts today have a clearer appreciation that it was, in reality, not a susceptible U.S. housing Bubble fomenting U.S. and global imbalances. Instead, left to their own devices, the same systematic Credit and speculative excesses that cultivated the tech/telecom Bubble - and then the Mortgage Finance Bubble – simply gravitated to myriad burgeoning Bubbles, including securities leveraging, global M&A, and Credit default swaps (and other Credit “arbitrage”) to list only the most conspicuous. Bigger and more powerful than ever.

This year should have marked a major inflection point in the U.S. Credit Cycle. The bursting of housing Bubbles was poised to restrain system Credit and liquidity excesses, in the process checking American over-consumption. In short, 2006 should have seen the initiation of the long-overdue adjustment process, with at least some moderation in global imbalances. Instead, a highly energized Credit system in conjunction with an enormous leveraged speculating community indulged in excess that overwhelmed the limited slowing in mortgage Credit growth. Ironically, the obvious financial and economic fragility associated with a vulnerable Mortgage Finance Bubble created an eagerness to position for Bernanke’s maiden easing cycle, an intense market bias that worked with other key dynamics (notably dollar liquidity recycling) to place a low ceiling on market yields. Financial Conditions turned only looser.

This year almost marked the emergence of inflationary pressures in traditional narrow measures of aggregate consumer prices. The CPI posted a 4.3% y-o-y gain in June (4.1% in July), although a sharp reversal of energy prices and pressure on auto prices helped push y-o-y price gains back down to 2.0% by November. And while Personal Income will likely end the year with a better than 6% gain, the consensus has become convinced that heightened inflationary pressures were no more than a fleeting issue.

When it comes to perceived inflationary risks, the markets this year came to fully accept that “globalization” will forever prove a cure-all for any degree of financial excess. I take a much different view, holding that Unlimited Global Finance and resulting Monetary Disorder are fueling epochal “Investment Inflation.” With the liquidity spigot wide open, the Asian Financial/Industrial Revolution ran unabated during 2006. In particular, investment in industrial capacity accelerated in booming China and India, a historic dynamic that worked to keep a lid on global manufactured goods prices.

more...

[54anickel]

44. Big Enough To Take From Us Everything We Have (Mogambo)

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Daughty/jan032007.html

snip>

The reason for my outrage is, of course, the inflation in prices that must result from all this monetary inflation. It is now a fact, as George Ure at UrbanSurvival.com writes (citing NowandFutures.com and John Williams at ShadowStats.com), that inflation in M3 (the broadest definition of "money supply") is actually running at 11.5%!

After that dreadful news sunk in, the rest of the day is a blank. But at just about the same time that the tranquilizer dart was wearing off and I awoke to find found myself alone, in a straightjacket, in a padded room, the mail arrived! Whee! In amongst the usual hate mail and "Last Notice!" letters from angry creditors threatening to sue me unless I pay back at least some of the money I owe them ("Hahaha! Fat chance, suckers!"), was my new 1040 tax booklet with the tax forms for filing my 2006 personal return.

Forced to turn the pages with my nose and rudely (and crudely) getting gelatinous, gleaming snot all over everything (as a sort of a performance-art editorial comment), I am immediately wondering why this year's 1040 booklet has no helpful page of "What's New This Year." I soon surmise that it is because they don't want you to notice the rampaging communism that is eating the guts out of America, as administered by the Uniform Tax Code.

snip>

This last piece of commie-trash tax legislation is that if you are low-income, and if you put some money into a retirement savings account, then the government will give you some, or most, or all, of the money back in the form of a tax credit! Hahaha! Literally giving people a free, pre-funded retirement account! Which is invested in stocks, which will, marginally, manipulate the stock market up! Hahaha! This is the deplorable, dimwitted depths to which the deplorable, dimwitted Congress has now plunged the United States.

snip>

Now, no less than John Roberts, the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court himself, is "issuing a report ", whining that prices have risen so much that the salaries of federal judges have fallen "further and further behind the cost of living", and that "The time is ripe for our nation's judges to receive a substantial salary increase"! What arrogance! What stupidity! He wants our taxes to go up to give these halfwit judges more money! Hahaha!

snip>

But in talking about Keynes, as a happenstance, Philip S. sent an email titled "A Wise Insight" from President Gerald Ford, who said "A government big enough to give us everything we want is a government big enough to take from us everything we have."

Keynes himself pointed out how they accomplish this in his "Essay in Persuasion" when he wrote "By a continuing process of inflation, governments can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens."

Mr. Keynes did not explain what he means by "an important part", but I, in my Irrepressible Mogambo Arrogance (IMA), am happy to officially explain that the "important part" that they take from you is the buying-power of your wealth, and you are left with the "unimportant part", which is the paper it was printed on.

more...

[54anickel]

45. Wall Street’s Spin-Meisters Are At It Again

http://www.kitco.com/ind/schiff/jan032007.html

To quell investor concerns during the inflating dotcom bubble, Wall Street offered soothing commentaries from analysts such as Henry Blodget, Jack Grubman, and Mary Meeker, that explained why the "old economy" rules no longer applied. The latest twist on this "black is white" spin was offered by Bear Stearn’s chief economist David Malpass, who in a recent editorial in The Wall Street Journal outlined why in the new global economy borrowing and spending, rather than savings and production, are the true engines of economic strength. Just as Blodget and the gang tried to justify ridiculous valuations for profitless internet stocks, Malpass uses similar logic to justify why America’s enormous trade and current account imbalances are good for our economy.

Back in the 1990’s, corporate losses were touted as evidence of a bright future. We were told it was a cyber “land-grab” where eyeballs and page views replaced sales and earnings. The calculations were necessary to keep the IPO spigots open and Wall Street profits flowing. Just as red ink was supposedly a sign of strength in the dotcom era, Malpass now tells us that America’s gargantuan trade deficits and its lack of domestic savings and real goods production are actually signs of its growing economic might. Investors who buy into this nonsense will suffer the fate of those who bought shares of pets.com.

To rationalize why trade deficits can be a good thing, Wall Street is pointing to the seemingly positive benefits of the "capital account surplus" that mirrors the deficit. On the surface this seems to make some sense, as most people have positive associations with “surpluses.” The thinking goes that our trade “deficit” is O.K. because it is balanced by a “surplus” somewhere else. However, having a surplus of bad things, such as poverty, hunger, crime, etc, is not a good thing. A capital account surplus is really a surplus of liabilities. This is not a good thing.

When a nation enjoys a trade surplus it accumulates foreign currency that it uses to purchase foreign assets, such as real estate, stocks, and bonds. These assets represent future sources of income in the form of rents, dividends, and interest. These foreign investments constitute a capital account deficit, which balance their current account surplus. However, the capital account deficits are actually the positive result of the current account surpluses. Alternatively, when the U.S. runs current account deficits, it is forced to accumulate capital account surpluses. These surpluses reflect the sale of American assets, such as real estate, stocks and bonds, to foreigners, that intern represent future obligations in the form of rents, dividends, and interest. In other words, the “surplus” refers to the accumulation of foreign liabilities.

more...

[54anickel]

46. 1:47 and exuberance fading a bit

Dow 12,523.55 60.40 (0.48%)
Nasdaq 2,438.64 23.35 (0.97%)
S&P 500 1,421.93 3.63 (0.26%)
10-yr Bond 4.68% 0.03
30-yr Bond 4.7830% 0.0350
NYSE Volume 2,151,879,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,472,184,000

1:30 pm : Stocks continue to put together a solid advance but sellers have recently stepped in to leave the major averages at afternoon lows. With the Treasury market in a holding pattern ahead of today's FOMC Minutes (2:00 ET), the rate-sensitive Financials sector has seen its intraday gains nearly halved. Oil prices still off more than 4% continue to provide a floor of market support; but the subsequent absence of leadership in the Energy sector also serves as a reminder of how crucial profits from the likes of explorers, drillers, refiners and integrated oil companies are to the overall earnings picture.DJ30 +74.27 NASDAQ +28.76 SP500 +5.22 XOI -2.6% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1136/1930/1.36 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1212/3388/1.29 bln

1:00 pm : Stocks are retracing morning highs as oil prices hit fresh session lows. Crude for February delivery is now down more than 4.0% near $58.50/bbl. Aside from recent weather forecasts calling for mild temperatures possibly curbing the demand for heating oil there are already concerns among traders that tomorrow's weekly inventories report, which has been delayed by a day due to the New Year's holiday, will also show that the market remains well supplied. Oil prices are heading for their biggest one-day decline since Nov. 16., when the December contract plunged 4.3% to $56.26/bbl amid growing doubts that OPEC would live up to output cuts. DJ30 +106.99 NASDAQ +34.99 SP500 +9.04 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1123/1943/1.26 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1220/3220/1.18 bln

12:30 pm : The indices are off their best levels, but a bullish market breadth remains firmly intact. As reflected in the A/D line, advancers on the NYSE hold a nearly 3-to-1 margin over decliners while those on the Nasdaq enjoy a almost 2-to1 edge. Exacerbating today's widespread rally has been the indices' ability to break through key technical levels of 12542, 1424 and 2445 on the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq, respectively.DJ30 +90.49 NASDAQ +30.45 SP500 +7.13 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1102/1929/1.13 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1142/3131/1.03 bln

[54anickel]

47. Putting the Freeze on Identity Theft (Yet another "cottage industry"?)

http://finance.yahoo.com/columnist/article/moneymatters/18916

snip>

There's no magic bullet that guarantees 100 percent protection from identity thieves, but the ability to slap what's known as a credit freeze on your accounts at the three credit bureaus is the best line of defense available against one of the worst types of identity theft: someone posing as you opening new lines of credit, or getting new loans.


To Freeze or Not to Freeze


When you put a freeze on your credit reports, it shuts out new lenders and creditors from checking into your personal financial history. (The companies you already do business with retain their ability to monitor your accounts.)


A freeze gives you more protection than a fraud alert. An alert is merely a yellow light for creditors and lenders that requires them to verify your information personally with you before granting new credit or loans. A freeze goes a step further by not allowing them to look at your record at all.


Of course, freeze makes it extremely difficult, if not impossible, for you -- or anyone masquerading as you -- to get a new credit card or loan, because lenders aren't apt to grant new accounts if they can't size up your credit worthiness.


Not surprisingly, lenders jump on the fact that it freezes you out as much as it does potential thieves. Lenders want you to believe that it's a disservice to you if you don't have immediate access to new credit or loans.

snip>

If you've been a victim of identity theft and have the police record to prove it, your freeze is free of charge. The rules for non-victims vary by state; some offer free freezes, others levy a charge of $10 or so.

more...

Then she goes on to recommend hiring TrustedID to handle it for you, for a mere $7.95/month, that's only $89.95/year.

Good grief, another money-making racket. :eyes: Ya know what would stop ID theft in it's tracks is if the companies issuing credit to those thieves were held financially responsible for the loss plus an additional percentage in damages for the damned hassle.

[54anickel]

49. 2:10 and FOMC poops on the party

Dow 12,488.86 25.71 (0.21%)
Nasdaq 2,423.61 8.32 (0.34%)
S&P 500 1,417.43 0.87 (0.06%)
10-yr Bond 4.68% 0.03
30-yr Bond 4.7830% 0.0350
NYSE Volume 2,310,862,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,606,911,000

2:00 pm : Market continues to pare some of its gains as investors anxiously wait to see what the FOMC minutes from the Dec 12 meeting, which are due out momentarily, say about inflation and the direction of Fed policy. Even though the markets have priced in a high probability that policy makers will cut rates before getting back to tightening, that assumption could be undermined somewhat with the minutes since the details have the ability to alter policy expectations for the Fed's next meeting on January 30-31.DJ30 +62.24 NASDAQ +23.01 SP500 +3.88 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1224/1843/1.48 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1277/3439/1.40 bln

[54anickel]

51. Dow Rises, Nasdaq Falls on Fed Minutes

Actually, they all fell from where they were, but why nit-pick. It IS up from it's open.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070103/wall_street.html?.v=28

Dow Up, Nasdaq Down in Midafternoon Trading After Fed Minutes Show Concern About Housing Slump

NEW YORK (AP) -- Stocks lost momentum and turned mixed in the first session of 2007 after minutes from the Federal Reserve's last meeting showed gathering concern at the central bank about the severity of the pullback in the housing sector.

Though the minutes from the Fed's Dec. 12 meeting said inflation continues to moderate, the bleak assessment of the housing market unnerved investors who were betting that the sector's problems wouldn't necessarily spill over into other portions of the economy.

Release of the minutes sapped momentum out of the market on a day that had seen triple-digit gains and a new trading high for the Dow Jones industrials.

In midafternoon trading, the Dow was up 11.29, or 0.09 percent, to 12,474.44 after jumping earlier to a new trading high of 12,580.35.

bit more...

[54anickel]

50. Mad cow proteins bred out of cattle

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,21004478-30417,00.html

SCIENTISTS have genetically engineered a dozen cows to be free from the proteins that cause mad cow disease, a breakthrough that may make the animals immune to the brain-wasting disease.
An international team of researchers from the US and Japan say they have "knocked out" the gene responsible for making the proteins, called prions.
The disease did not take hold when brain tissue from two of the genetically engineered cows was exposed to bad prions in the laboratory, they said.

Experts said the work might offer another layer of security to people concerned about eating infected beef.

"This research is a huge step forward for the use of animal biotechnology that benefits consumers," said Barbara Glenn of the Biotechnology Industry Organisation, a Washington industry group that includes the company that sponsored the research as a member.

"This a plus for consumers worldwide."

The surviving cows are now being injected directly with mad cow disease, known as bovine spongiform encephalopathy, or BSE, to make certain the cattle are immune to it.

more...

[AnneD]

54. Sounds like

a marketing scam to get us to eat more cloned meat.

[54anickel]

56. Heh-heh, was thinking the same thing. "Clone them babies!!!" n/t

[AnneD]

59. Like that story ...

about soy beans gowing up because more soy is used for fuel....maybe I have been around farmers too long but crops fail and I would hate to rely on a grown crop for fuel. Too many eggs in one basket.

[54anickel]

62. Speaking of crops....

Operating Cost Estimates Climb for Crops
http://www.farmfutures.com/ME2/dirmod.asp?sid=CD26BEDECA4A4946A1283CC7786AEB5A&nm=News&type=news&mod=News&mid=9A02E3B96F2A415ABC72CB5F516B4C10&tier=3&nid=34C7E5EF93134F159E77C0E7728BF927

The USDA Economic Research Service has released its Cost-of-Production Forecasts for major crops, predicting that cost of production per acre will continue to rise across the board in 2007 and 2008.

Rice and cotton had the highest operating costs per planted acre of major crops, at $400.38 and $362.18, respectively. ERS estimates the average acre of rice will have an operating cost of $427.01 by 2008, with $390.97 for cotton.

Oats came in at the other end of the spectrum, with 2006 operating costs of $65.82 per acre, rising to $70.92 by 2008.

Corn cost an estimated $208.76 per acre for operation, with that figure estimated at $224.92 for 2008. With the addition of allocated overhead costs, corn would reach $461.67 per acre in 2008, cotton would top $600 an acre, and rice nearly reaches $800.

Land costs were highest for corn and soybeans, in the $90-100 per acre range.


And from the :wtf: pages:
Farmers try cannons to combat hail storms
http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/16363659.htm

snip>

Hail cannons, which switch on when storms are approaching, are the latest high-tech device aimed at protecting crops from the volatile weather that hits California's agricultural heartland, where a single hail storm can damage a crop -- and a local economy -- overnight.

Farmers have long clamored for technology that helps them deal with nature's whims. Though scientists say no significant study has proven the devices' effectiveness, a small group of farmers in the San Joaquin Valley and across the country are putting faith -- and thousands of dollars -- into hail cannons.

''The first year I had them, there was a storm where I saw my neighbor's fields had damage and I didn't,'' said Diepersloot, who has bought 24 cannons to use throughout his 1,200-acre farm.

WAR ON WEATHER

With the 2007 storm season approaching, Diepersloot's workers prepare to wage war on the weather. The huge, cone-shaped machines click on automatically when a Doppler radar signal senses a storm is on the horizon. Within seconds, they emit a deafening, electronic blast, repeated every six seconds.

As the sound waves rise from the cannon and ripple into the sky, they disrupt airborne water droplets poised to become hail stones, and instead cause the water to fall as rain or slush, the cannon's manufacturers say.

But scientists dispute their claims.

more...

And another...
GM: BEES SHUN BIOTECH; COLDIRETTI, NATURE DEFENDS ITSELF

(AGI) - Rome, Jan 3 - The fact that bees are staying away from fields cultivated with genetically modified organisms and the consequent reduction in pollination is a scientific alarm for agriculture and the environment, which justifies the precaution and gives value to the zero tolerance decision made by Italian agriculture against biotech, said Coldiretti, commenting on the results of study by the Department of Biological Sciences of Simon Fraser University from British Columbia, Canada. The study, which was published by the Ecological Society of America, showed that in fields cultivated with GM rapes the number of bees fell sharply, with a serious deficit in pollination compared to traditionally grown fields. Besides being insects useful for agriculture due to their pollination activities, which help crop-growing, bees have always been an important sensor to evaluate the quality of agricultural systems, Coldiretti said. Their diffidence of GM products is therefore a signal from nature that should not be underestimated. Bees ability to distinguish GM plants from normal plants also shows that the two crops are not equivalent. Coldiretti said that this confirms the concern about the effects of co-existence between traditional crops and biotech crops and it shows that more research and testing is needed to verify the effects on the agricultural ecosystem. This study justifies the growing opposition to GM products as food: three out of four Italians (74 percent) say they believe GM products are not healthy, an opinion which has grown by 4 percent, according to the 2006 Coldiretti-ISPO Investigation on Italians' opinions about nutrition. It is a signal which is coherent with the path chosen by Italian agriculture which, also thanks to Coldiretti's work for food quality and security, is free from GM products and has garnered the European leadership in biological foods and traditional products.


One more for the road
Traditional crops are on verge of extinction in Garhwal
http://www.hindu.com/thehindu/holnus/015200612310310.htm

Dehra Dun, Dec 31. (PTI): Alarm bells have started ringing in the Garhwal Himalayas of Uttaranchal amid reports that traditional crops are on the verge of extinction.

This has caused fresh concern among agronomists who are calling for preservation of traditional crops, which were developed keeping in view prevalent environmental conditions in the region.

A new survey conducted by the State Government has also confirmed that the area supporting a variety of traditional crops declined by a whopping 72-92 per cent during the past two decades. Traditional crops have mostly been replaced by high yielding cash crops like potato, soybean, mustard and amaranth.

snip>

The study also indicated that the decline was a fallout of the on-going trend of vanishing traditional crops in India and the neighboring states like Nepal. Pakistan, Afghanistan and Bhutan.

In the Himalayan Gazetteer of 1882, historians have listed 48 varieties of rice saying there are scores of others which cannot be described.

Today, only seven or eight of these varieties are cultivated with only ramjawan, thapachini, lalmati and rikhva in irrigated land and ghiyasu in rain fed areas, the survey said.

snip>

"We may have achieved food security by growing high yielding wheat and rice varieties. But in the process, we lost valuable crops which are additionally required to ensure good health.

more...

[citizen snips]

52. Sector Snap: Airline Shares Surge

NEW YORK (AP) -- Airline shares surged Wednesday, as oil prices plunged below $59 per barrel and analysts forecast 2007 as a strong year for the industry.

Jet fuel is among an airline's top costs, and price drops typically boost airline stocks. A barrel of oil lost $2.85 to $58.20 on the New York Mercantile Exchange, as mild U.S. weather dampens demand for winter fuels.

The Amex Airline Index rose 2.8 percent, with 10 of its 11 component stocks marking gains. Almost all the percentage swings were greater than 2 percent, as a Goldman Sachs analyst trimmed his 2007 forecast for oil prices and Calyon securities upgraded United Airlines' parent.

Several analysts issued reports saying they expect 2007 to be a strong year for the airline industry due to higher fares, even while trimming profit estimates for some carriers on cost and revenue adjustments. Calyon's Neidl said he's looking for it to be "a banner year for the industry."

more...
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070103/airlines_sector_snap.html?.v=1

[citizen snips]

53. Energy stocks hit as oil drops on warm weather

NEW YORK/HOUSTON (Reuters) - Shares of energy companies tumbled on Wednesday as unseasonably warm winter weather pushed oil prices down more than 4.5 percent.

Top U.S. oil companies Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE:XOM - News) and Chevron Corp. (NYSE:CVX - News) fell about 3.4 percent and ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP - News) fell 4.6 percent in afternoon trading on the New York Stock Exchange.

The Philadelphia Stock Exchange's oil services index (Philadelphia:^OSX - News) was down about 4.6 percent as low oil prices and a profit warning by index member Nabors Industries Ltd. (NYSE:NBR - News) weighed on drillers.

"A lot of people are saying, 'My God, with this warm weather, if the economy slows down then there is definitely going to be real downward pressure on oil prices,"' said Oppenheimer & Co. analyst Fadel Gheit.

more...
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/070103/oil_stocks.html?.v=2

[54anickel]

55. Homeland Insecurity?

http://www.contraryinvestor.com/mo.htm

Homeland Insecurity?...To ourselves, the single most important issue for the real US economy and financial markets in 2007 is the fate of US residential real estate and the credit markets that support this asset class. Despite all the claims by the Fed that current weakness in housing is "isolated", without sounding too simplistic, we know that historically the character of the housing cycle has indeed had a direct impact on US payroll employment and consumer spending behavior. In other words, at least according to the message of historical experience, housing is anything but isolated. It's an integral part of the ongoing rhythm of the real economy. So as we look into 2007, we suggest that the changing nature of the housing cycle will be very important to real world economic outcomes as well as financial market outcomes. But at least within the context of the current cycle, we believe it's also very important to keep in mind that the changing character of the housing cycle will impact monetary action in perhaps a very big way. In fact, we think this has already started in terms of the Fed being incredibly accepting of ongoing systemic liquidity creation, especially since the summer of last year. Despite the fact that the Fed/Treasury/Administration talks a good game in terms of theoretically being vigilant regarding ongoing inflationary pressures, they are anything but monetary policemen as they are indeed the key provocateurs in monetary expansion (otherwise know as monetary inflation). And given that less and less current financial liquidity is finding its way into the real estate markets, that brings up the possibility that once again monetary excess will find its expression in the financial markets. Can we make the case that the worse it gets for the real world housing cycle, the greater the possibility that liquidity excess allowed to be generated as a counterpoint to the deterioration in housing may impact the financial markets? Moving into 2007, we believe these are the very simple macro dynamics perhaps most important to investment survival.

In the spirit of trying to keep our finger on the reality of the housing cycle and anticipate monetary actions to come, we thought we'd very briefly review current housing cycle dynamics relative to historical experience in an attempt to get a sense for where we are and what may be to come . For anyone who has tuned into the ongoing infomercial that is CNBC as of late, and actually allowed the volume to be turned up, you already know that the favorite pastime of so many of the current commentators spewing "information" on this media platform has now become calling the bottom for the housing cycle. Without question, we fully expect this to continue throughout the year to come and perhaps well beyond. For as you know, we witnessed exactly the same experience six short years ago in yet another asset class when headline and mainstream commentators repeatedly attempted to call the bottom for the tech cycle and its related stocks. But we all know, or should know, how and when asset class cycles truly bottom, right? They bottom when no one is any longer calling for the bottom. They bottom in silence. In terms of housing? At least according to the relatively important cacophonous CNBC chorus of the moment, we're not even close to a bottom. But, as always, that's our opinion. Let's look at the facts, shall we?

snip>

We'll leave you with an excerpt from a recent (November '06) Fortune interview with Treasury Secy. Paulson. And we'll also leave you with a question to ponder. Is this personal conjecture on the part of Paulson, or is this simply implicit policy at this point?

Aren't you concerned that GDP growth dropped to 1.6% in the latest quarter? That's kind of anemic, and we've seen a downturn in the housing market. Convince us we're not going to have a recession next year.

"I can't convince you. But as I looked at the third quarter, I felt good because I saw a major correction in the housing market, and I knew that was going to take more than one percentage point off GDP. And then I'm looking at the rest of the economy - strong corporate profits and investment, good growth outside the U.S., strength in the construction sector away from housing, and then an equity market that has gone up and added $1 trillion in value.

I know how much people care about housing. But I would be quite hopeful that through 401(k) plans, pension plans, and elsewhere that the average American is feeling an uplift from the appreciation of the equity market that would be very offsetting to any potential decline in housing."

Please remember, the reality of the US economy and how that reality is mirrored over the short term in financial markets can be two very different things. Being right and making money as investors can be two different things. Especially in today's world of interest rate and credit derivatives mushroom clouds. We know exactly how the Fed/Treasury/Administration/Wall Street reacted to the tech stock bust. Should be really expect anything different conceptually in terms of a reaction to a housing downturn? We think not. Listen to what Paulson said above. Listen. The decline in housing is not going to occur without one big "reaction". Capiche?

more...

[VegasWolf]

57. BWAAAH! Druge still carrying headline "Stocks SURGE 1st day of 2007"!!! nt

[54anickel]

58. 2:38 and blood everywhere - someone tried to catch the falling blade

earlier and simply created a sticky mess.

Dow 12,411.23 51.92 (0.42%)
Nasdaq 2,395.91 19.38 (0.80%)
S&P 500 1,408.20 10.10 (0.71%)
10-yr Bond 4.67% 0.04
30-yr Bond 4.7740% 0.0440
NYSE Volume 2,685,954,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,948,085,000

2:30 pm : The major averages now trade in split fashion as a five-month rally predicated on the chances of the Fed engineering a soft landing for the U.S. economy comes into question following the FOMC Minutes. At the top of the hour, investors sifted through a report showing that all Fed members agreed that the risk of inflation failing to moderate remained the "predominant concern." With the market even more preoccupied about the pace of economic growth, several Fed members also acknowledging that the "downside risks to economic growth in the near term had increased a little," with economic activity in the second half of this year probably "a touch softer than had been expected" have also taken a toll on overall sentiment. DJ30 +13.29 NASDAQ -3.20 SP500 -2.75 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1409/1676/1.62 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1410/3475/1.56 bln

[VegasWolf]

61. but, but, some people think that the stock is so low that it just HAS to go back up. nt

[54anickel]

63. You mean like Drudge?

Bwahahaha! :hi:

[citizen snips]

60. Suit charges Apple with new options woes

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- A shareholder suit is charging that Apple gave four executives a huge windfall by granting them options to buy almost 1 million shares of company stock the day before the then-struggling computer maker announced a $150 million investment by Microsoft in 1997, according to a published report.

The Los Angeles Times reports that the suit alleges that kind of improper timing of options was common at Apple Computer for years.

Apple conceded Friday that there had been numerous instances where options were improperly backdated to give holders of the stock options the chance to buy shares at a low point over a specific period. The company restated earnings lower by $84 million, from 1997 to 2005, due to that practice.

The Times said the federal shareholder suit filed in late December charges that options were also "spring-loaded," a practice by which options are issued just before good news known to the company is revealed to the market. The report cites the 1997 options given to the four executives as an example of that practice.

more...
http://money.cnn.com/2007/01/03/technology/apple_lawsuit/index.htm?source=yahoo_quote

[54anickel]

64. 3:28 and amazingly they are back up to key technical levels. Whodathunk!

Dow 12,439.27 23.88 (0.19%)
Nasdaq 2,409.23 6.06 (0.25%)
S&P 500 1,412.12 6.18 (0.44%)
10-yr Bond 4.66% 0.05
30-yr Bond 4.7670% 0.0510
NYSE Volume 2,916,168,000
Nasdaq Volume 2,132,496,000

3:00 pm : Sellers continue to show their resolve as industry leadership changes hands to favor the bears; seven out of 10 sectors are now posting losses. Energy continues to pace the way lower, but the absence of upside leadership from influential areas like Technology, Financials and Health Care are weighing even more heavily on the broader market. Adding to the market's recent struggles have been the indices' inability to find initial support near key technical levels of 12420, 1410 and 2400 on the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq, respectively. DJ30 -50.56 NASDAQ -18.58 SP500 -9.86 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1733/1357/1.89 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1773/3363/1.82 bln

It's a miracle!!!:eyes:

[VegasWolf]

66. $TICK turn bullish, Bush's soldiers want to pull off at least a two dollar gain for the 1st day! nt

[54anickel]

67. Closing time - nice salvage!

Dow 12,474.52 11.37 (0.09%)
Nasdaq 2,423.16 7.87 (0.33%)
S&P 500 1,416.60 1.70 (0.12%)
10-yr Bond 4.66% 0.05
30-yr Bond 4.7670% 0.0510
NYSE Volume 3,341,615,000
Nasdaq Volume 2,486,647,000

4:20 pm : What was shaping up to be a very strong start to 2007 actually ended on a rather lackluster note, as diminishing hopes of a possible interest rate cut left the sustainability of a nearly six-month rally in stocks up for debate.

With U.S. markets closed Tuesday to commemorate the recent passing of President Ford, and equity markets rallying around the world, investors feeling left behind embraced upbeat corporate news, some positive analyst commentary, falling oil prices and the seasonality factor to get back into buying mode.

As a reminder, today marked the second-to-last trading day of the classic year-end Santa Claus rally which, according to the Stock Trader's Almanac, has resulted in an average return of 1.5% for the S&P 500 since 1950. In fact, an influx of new fund inflows that typically hit the market on the first day of trading for the month/quarter/year, as evidenced by the biggest volume in several weeks, provided an additional floor of market support.

After contracting for the first time in more than three years, the ISM index rebounding to 51.4 in December (from a sub-50 read in November) provided even more confirmation that manufacturing is holding up nicely, helping to alleviate the worst of recession fears. In fact, the report more than offset monthly ADP employment data that suggested Friday's closely-watched and more credible Dec. jobs report will disappoint.

Throw in Wal-Mart (WMT 47.50 +1.32) providing an additional vote of confidence about the health of the consumer, after saying December same-store sales rose more than expected, the surprise resignation of Home Depot (HD 41.12 +0.96) Chairman and CEO Robert Nardelli, and bargain hunters jumping at the chance to buy last year's worst performing Dow component, Intel (INTC 20.32 +0.07), and Wednesday had all the makings of a broad-based rally. Intel was up more than 3% at one point, providing a huge boost for the influential Tech sector.

Be that as it may, with the market pricing in the chances of a soft landing for the U.S. economy and an eventual Fed rate cut, investors already anxious about what the FOMC minutes from the December 12 meeting would say about inflation and the direction of Fed policy grew even more concerned in afternoon trading.

At 2:00 ET, investors sifted through a report showing that all Fed members agreed that the risk of inflation failing to moderate remained the "predominant concern." With the market even more preoccupied about the pace of economic growth, several policy makers also acknowledging that the "downside risks to economic growth in the near term had increased a little," with economic activity in the second half of this year probably "a touch softer than had been expected," also took a toll on overall sentiment. In fact, today's volatile action resulted in the biggest range for the Dow (175 points) since August 2006.

Oil prices posting their biggest one-day decline (-4.5%) since April 27, 2005 (-4.8%), was another source of support; but the subsequent absence of leadership in the Energy sector (-3.7%) also served as a reminder of how crucial profits from the likes of explorers, drillers, refiners and integrated oil companies are to the overall earnings picture. Crude for February delivery slipped below $59/bbl for the first time since November 24 and closed at $58.32/bbl after the National Weather Service called for warmer temperatures through the 15th of January in the U.S. Northeast, the largest customer of heating oil. DJ30 +11.37 NASDAQ +7.87 SP500 -1.70 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1496/1624/2.30 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1870/1863/2.24 bln

3:30 pm : Stocks bounce off session lows but continue to languish in negative territory. Further underscoring renewed skepticism about the sustainability of the second-half rally in equities has been continued deterioration in market breadth. Decliners, which were edging out advancers on the Nasdaq 45 minutes ago, now outpace advancing issues on the NYSE as well. As a reminder, the Dow has closed at new record highs more than 20 times since October and the S&P 500 is fresh off of posting its seventh straight monthly gain -- its longest winning streak in a decade. DJ30 -13.28 NASDAQ -6.71 SP500 -5.22 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1813/1281/2.06 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1960/1390/2.04 bln


Good night everyone :hi:

[ozymandius]

68. g'night 54anickel.

Thanks for doing so much of the heavy lifting today.

:hi:

[54anickel]

69. Night Ozy, sorry you missed the fun roller coaster ride today. That was

one long climb, but I gotta tell ya the downhills weren't all that fun. I like 'em better when they're a straight drop out of nowhere - the real pukers :puke: