Poll shows Allen with slight lead in Senate race (47-43 w/ 4%MOE)

[underpants]

This paper endorsed Allen Sunday if you were wondering about the headline
http://www.timesdispatch.com/servlet/Satellite?pagename=RTD/MGArticle/RTD_BasicArticle&c=MGArticle&cid=1149191309076

U.S. Sen. George Allen, R-Va., may have opened a slight lead over Democrat Jim Webb, but the race that could help decide control of the Senate remains tight.

The latest Times-Dispatch Poll shows Allen ahead of Webb by 4 percentage points, a statistically insignificant edge that matches the survey's margin of error.

The most recent poll suggests that Allen has stanched damage from high-profile embarrassments, including allegations of racial and ethnic insensitivity, but he is still handicapped by the unpopularity of President Bush and the war in Iraq.

"Allen is in slightly better shape than he was a few weeks ago; however, his re-election is hardly guaranteed," said J. Bradford Coker of Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc., which conducted the poll for The Times-Dispatch and other news organizations.

[ronnykmarshall]

1. This one is going to the wire.

This race will be one to watch on election night.

[ShortnFiery]

6. You're right ...

I don't like to beat feet with walking the neighborhoods, but <sigh> I'm going to contact my local Democratic Chapter today and ask if I can help in any way.

Just think, we won't have to see Allen's "Deer in the Headlights" look EVER again. No joke, he could patent his picture as a perfect visual of "the vacant stare." :rofl:

Yes, it would be nice to have Webb replace Allen. After that we can get Mark Warner to replace John Warner? But I'm getting ahead of myself. :blush:

We can do this fellow Virginians! Go Jim Webb!

[JudyM]

18. Great - we can use your help! If you're in No VA I can hook you up!

I'm helping to organize volunteers. It's all going to come down to our GOTV (get out the vote) effort vs theirs.

[Hugin]

2. I trust an organization called... 'Mason-Dixon Polling and Research'.

:eyes:

I'm getting tired of all of these neck-n-neck polls which get spun as
a lead.

[TheVirginian]

11. Mason Dixon is at the top of the list of independent credible pollsters

Do you have any objections to their methodology or production, or are you just judging a book by its cover?

[Hugin]

12. Apparently, only since 2000...

I'm only parroting the concerns of others...

From:

http://www.pollster.com/mystery_pollster/comparing_pollsters_in_virgini.php

"Chris is correct that Mason-Dixon polls tend to overstate Republican support compared to other polls. However, despite this, Mason-Dixon has been one of the most accurate pollsters in the country over the past 3 election cycles (data from SurveyUSA's website).

Prior to 2000, though, Mason-Dixon was not a particularly accurate polling firm, consistently ranking in the bottom half of all pollsters.

So, the question open to debate is whether Mason-Dixon:

a.) Has recently developed a methodology that more accurately models Republican turnout than other pollsters.

or

b.) Has methodology that is inherently skewed towards Republicans, making their polls very accurate when Republicans exceed their historical support levels, (as in the last 3 elections), but not so accurate when they don't."

[TheVirginian]

15. There is a difference in your first post and this one.

Your first post derided the firm's name, most likely because "Mason Dixon" implies Southern, and thus, backwardsness.

Regardless, there's no proper way to predict turnout by party, so to call a sample an "oversample" is misleading. Mason-Dixon's methodology is regarded as reliable by at least MSNBC and the National Journal, and many other sources as well. Even if you disagree with their methodology or their results, its important to look at all the information availible instead of sticking one's head in the sand in the face of unfavorable polling results.

[Hugin]

16. Well, I'm southern... So, that wouldn't be it.

Since there is no listing of the methodology and sampling for this poll available
from M-D... I must assume MSNBC and others are getting what they paid for.

[ACK]

3. Someone else posted this yesterday this one will be close

So everyone in VA has to really get out there and vote.

I am. That is for damn well sure.

The Repukes are very good at getting their folks out there and we have to get the machine up and running and get the people in the polls.

If its too close they can steal it.

Go Webb keep up those attack ads!!!

[Hugin]

4. Excellent!

Vote!

:thumbsup:

[Trouser Trout]

5. Can the people in Southside come through for Webb?

Mason-Dixon says Allen has a 13 point lead over Webb in Southside Va. Even though we have one of the worst job markets in the NATION folks still love their Georges.OTOH,Danville supported a Dem ( Kerry ) in '04 so maybe there's still hope.

[Doctor_J]

7. You'll have to forgive me

But if the people in the Commonwealth of Virginia send George Felix Allen Jr. instead of James Webb, I will look down on them as brainwashed ignoramuses who deserve the worst and are probably never coming over to the sane side. Same thing with Montanans if they elect Burns instead of Tester.

[ShortnFiery]

8. Please don't stereotype ...

there are a number of us liberals who figuratively live "behind enemy lines." (rebel flags and lawn jockeys displayed)

I'm also hopeful that because Northern Virginia is growing seemingly exponentially, being more diverse, it heavily leans "democratic."

We have a good chance to win. Just perhaps, like another Virginian had mentioned other areas of Virginia are also turning blue. :hi:

[LostinVA]

9. Nice to condemn those who vote for Webb n/t

[onenote]

14. And Illinois is the land of perfection?

Before you cast stones at the entire state of Virginia (which elected a Democrat as governor, something your state may not do this year), why not deal with the fact that nearly 50 percent of the Illinois congressional delegation is made up of repubs, including such stellar members as Dennis Hastert, Henry Hyde, and Jerry Weller.

[LibDemAlways]

10. I live in California, a state where the idiot morons are

about to re-elect a braindead, womanizing, former bodybuilder whose penis is on display on the internet as Governor, so I'm not going to cast any aspersions on Virginians about Allen. It's great that Webb is doing so well. I sent him a couple of bucks and encourage everyone who can to do the same.

[JudyM]

17. Thanks - good plug! Send Webb money! We're so close.

I'm a volunteer in northern VA and Allen's ads and the repuke GOTV machine are in full play here.

[6000eliot]

13. All they're looking for is close enough to steal.

[JudyM]

19. We need volunteers - even if just for a couple hours -

We can use all the volunteers we can get - everything from hanging doorknockers to staffing the polls on election day to making calls from home for a couple of hours.

Our get out the vote effort has to beat Allen's, period.

If you can help, I can put you in touch with your local volunteer coordinators.

If you don't have time, you can at least try to call 5 people on the day of the election to remind them to vote. That'd help a lot.