GOP's Hold on Evangelicals Weakening

[sabra]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/10/05/AR2006100501763.html

GOP's Hold on Evangelicals Weakening
Party's Showing in Midterm Elections May Be Hurt as Polls Indicate Support Dropping in Base


ANOKA, Minn. -- Lynn Sunde, an evangelical Christian, is considering what for her is a radical step. Come November, she may vote for a Democrat for Congress.

Sunde, 35, manages a coffee shop and attends a nondenominational Bible church. "You're never going to agree with one party on everything, so for me the key has always been the religion issues -- abortion, the marriage amendment" to ban same-sex unions, she said.

That means she consistently votes Republican. But, she said, she is starting to worry about the course of the Iraq war, and she finds the Internet messages from then-Rep. Mark Foley (R-Fla.) to teenage boys "pretty sickening." When she goes into the voting booth this time, she said, "I'm going to think twice. . . . I'm not going to vote party line as much as to vote issues."

Even a small shift in the loyalty of conservative Christian voters such as Sunde could spell trouble for the GOP this fall. In 2004, white evangelical or born-again Christians made up a quarter of the electorate, and 78 percent of them voted Republican, according to exit polls. But some pollsters believe that evangelical support for the GOP peaked two years ago and that what has been called the "God gap" in politics is shrinking.

[razors edge]

1. Blaming the clergy for making you

a pedo ain't helping as a strategy.

[physioex]

2. That doesn't help.....

But I think the bigger is the Speaker not resigning....

[sutz12]

3. Actually, it should be the other way around...

Evangelicals hold on Republicans needs to go away.

[razors edge]

4. I see only pandering, no hold

by the fundies or the pugs would giva shit about the poor like the manual says.

[w4rma]

6. Evangelicals have no control over the Republican Party.

They are just conned into thinking they do.

The Republican leadership considers them ignorant, easily manipulated fools.

Evangelicals *should* be voting Democratic on the issues (such as, in every case, caring for one's neighbor), not Republican.

[Dulcinea]

9. We have a winner! ding*ding*

The evangelicals are just now figuring out that the Repubs will never ban abortion or force prayer in public schools; they'll just dangle it in front of them like a carrot on a stick forever to get their votes.

No one likes to be played, even the Bible-bangers.

[wageslave71]

11. Good analogy

I have used that "carrot on a stick" repeatedly since the '04 campaign.

My brother-in-law became a Southern Baptist preacher last year and was still in school during '04. I was an officer in my county's Dem party at the time. So, you can imagine to what degree we differed on politics. Since then, I perceive a cooling of his political convictions.

My hope is that evangelical influence in elections peaked two years ago. I don't expect many of them to vote Dem, but much ground may be gained if they don't feel motivated to go to the polls. This is especially true here in rural NC where we got walloped 2-1, or worse, in every race frome President to county commissioner.

They just need to realize that they are never going to get the carrot, because they will no longer be inclined to pull the load.

[Kikosexy2]

16. They saw ...

"Jesus Camp"...apparently it scared the BeJeebus out of them...

[agio]

5. Lynn Sunde, you are welcome n/t

[daleo]

7. "according to the exit polls"

What, exit polls are reliable again?

[Freedom_from_Chains]

8. They have always been reliable whenever they show pubs winning.

[xchrom]

10. what has been a boon to the republick party doesn't mean

it will be the same boon to the democratic party.

if ms sunde's issues remain the same -- abortion, anti-marriage equality, etc -- then she will either not stay with the democratic party long or the in some parts of the country the democratic party will move more boldly in her direction.

i'ld rather see ms sunde become more educated regarding her core issues -- then move to the democratic party.

[Gman]

12. You gotta give Rove credit for getting the fundies to the polls

From a political gamesmanship perspective, Rove's work has been spectacular. Rove said in 2000 that there were like 2 million fundies that didn't vote in 2000. Rove said if they had voted as anticipated the Florida fiasco would never had happened.

[GeorgeGist]

13. Evangelicals lost their grip...

on GOD long before the GOP came along.

[Kolesar]

14. I was throwing the ball for my golden this morning

...as I awoke from a dream. I miss her, too!

[gratuitous]

15. It's a cyclic thing

The evangelical community is constantly pulled in several directions at once, based on their reading of the Bible and the exhortations of their leaders. Every now and then, for a spasm of time, they get active politically, thinking that their influence on the nation's leaders will usher in an era of their brand of Christian piety, with good boys and girls going to church every Sunday, attending good wholesome entertainments through the week, and nobody ever getting pregnant again unless they're married and really, really in love.

Then reality intrudes, and they find out that they have been cynically manipulated by politicians who care more for their votes than their values, and they remember that they're supposed to be in the world but not of the world. And they fold back in upon themselves, vowing not to be taken in by sharp worldly operators who exploit the faithful for their own ends. Until the next time they get taken in.

It looks like the evangelical community is once again cycling down, disappointed once again by the chimera of political solutions to non-political problems.

[SoCalDem]

17. Funny how the "religious issues" always seem to be about

stopping people who are NOT of your religion, from doing something YOU disapprove of..