STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday 18 August

[ozymandius]

Friday August 18, 2006

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 887 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2064 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 1764 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1725
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 6
Enron execs conveniently deceased = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON August 17, 2006

Dow... 11,334.96 +7.84 (+0.07%)
Nasdaq... 2,157.61 +8.07 (+0.38%)
S&P 500... 1,297.48 +2.05 (+0.16%)
Gold future... 625.30 -13.70 (-2.19%)
30-Year Bond 5.00% -0.00 (-0.04%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.87% -0.00 (-0.08%)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver


PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Martin Goldberg

THE NEW ELECTION RALLY?

The mother of all counter trend rallies hit the market this week; but the bigger question is whether or not we are seeing a slightly earlier repeat of the 2004 election rally. In that year the market rallied from August into the November elections and beyond pretty much without significant pause. There’s seemingly no reason why this cannot happen once again. Since “seasonality” is now one of the most accepted principles of stock market trading, a case can be made for a repeat of ’04. If enough traders believe it to be true, then it becomes true. So far, as illustrated below, the “verticality” of the rally looks about the same as that of 2004.

-cut-

One must not forget the premise of this rally, which is lower interest rates, suggested by the talk by the Fed and government statistics. So it will be important to see if leading retailers such as J.C. Penney and Federated surpass their old highs. Similarly, in the summer of ’04, crude oil dropped from the $50 per barrel level. This time it may drop from the $75 level, and as they say, for oil, $70 is the new $50. As a consumer, $3.00 gallon in late August made me shiver last year. This year after paying over $3.20, I’m thrilled to pay only $2.99 per gallon.

-cut-

Finally, the “New” expression… You know, “age 40 is the new 30.” “Oil at $70 per barrel is the new $50.”

Here are a few more "New” expressions.

* Cisco is the new Radio Corp.
* Buybacks are the new dividends.
* A P/E of 20 is the new 10.
* The iPod is the new Walkman, is the new 8-track is the new reel to reel.
* Middle class is the new poor.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[RawMaterials]

18. more..

from the article

*Financial engineering is the new research and development.

*……………. is the new Enron.

*World domination is the new world peace.

[AnneD]

21. Corperate owned media....

is the new free press...:cry:

[ozymandius]

2. One report today

9:50 AM Mich Sentiment-Prel. Aug
Briefing Forecast 82.5
Market Expects 84.0
Prior 84.7

[UpInArms]

23. August UMich Consumer Sentiment drops to 78.7 (into the toilet)

9:52 AM ET 8/18/06 AUG. UMICH CONSUMER EXPECTATIONS 64.5 VS. 72.5

9:52 AM ET 8/18/06 AUG. UMICH EXPECTATIONS INDEX LOWEST SINCE OCT.: REPORTS

9:51 AM ET 8/18/06 AUG. UMICH CONSUMER SENTIMENT FALLS FROM 84.7 IN JULY

9:51 AM ET 8/18/06 AUG. UMICH 12-MONTH INFLATION EXPECTATIONS 4.2% VS. 3.2%

9:49 AM ET 8/18/06 AUG. UMICH CURRENT INDEX 100.8 VS. 103.5 JULY

9:49 AM ET 8/18/06 AUG UMICH CONSUMER SENTIMENT 78.7 V. 83.6 EXPECTED: REPORTS

[UpInArms]

24. Surprised eCONomists attempt to ignore 2/3rd of the US economy

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B8EEB1BE2%2D81E1%2D43CC%2D8E53%2D967D08B91C24%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. consumer sentiment sank in early August to the lowest level since October, according to media reports of proprietary research from the University of Michigan. The UMich consumer sentiment index dropped to 78.7 in August from 84.7 in July. Economists were expecting the index to slide to 83.6. The index is at its lowest level since October. Inflation fears spiked, with consumers expecting prices to rise 4.2% over the next 12 months, up from 3.2% expected last month. The current conditions index dropped to 100.8 in August from 103.5 in July. The expectations index fell from 72.5 in July to 64.5 in August, the lowest since October.

[UpInArms]

26. US consumer sentiment fell in early Aug-Univ Mich

http://today.reuters.com/news/articleinvesting.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-08-18T135641Z_01_N18381336_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-CONSUMERS-SENTIMENT-URGENT.XML

NEW YORK, Aug 18 (Reuters) - U.S. consumer sentiment dropped more than expected in early August, a report showed on Friday, as consumers' view of current and future conditions declined.

The University of Michigan's preliminary reading of consumer sentiment in August was 78.7, down from July's final reading of 84.7, said sources who saw the subscription-only report. The median forecast of Wall Street economists polled by Reuters was for a reading of 83.6.

The survey's index of current conditions declined to 100.8 in August from 103.5 in July, while consumer expectations slipped to 64.5 from 72.5 in July.

Consumer spending accounts for about two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, but in recent years confidence measures have been a weak guide to actual spending.

Consumers' expectations for increased inflation rose in August the report said, according to the sources.

...more...

[ozymandius]

3. Oil prices rise after week of declines

SINGAPORE - Oil prices recouped some losses in Asian trading Friday after declining for a week in response to above-average U.S. oil stockpiles and positive developments in the Middle East and an Alaskan oil field.

Light, sweet crude for September delivery rose 42 cents to $70.48 a barrel in midafternoon Asian electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange in what was seen as a normal price adjustment.

At London's ICE Futures exchange, Brent crude for October was up 32 cents to $71.90 a barrel.

In other Nymex trading, gasoline futures gained 2.59 cents to $1.9575 a gallon. Heating oil futures rose 1.85 cent to $1.9835 a gallon, while natural gas futures dropped 11.6 cents to $6.573 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

4. Prices prompt oil, gas investment scams

With oil prices exceeding $70 a barrel, investors looking to make a quick buck are losing millions of dollars to sham oil and gas investments.

Typically, these deals involve scamsters who assure investors they can profit from high energy prices by investing in oil wells, for example, or alternative energy sources. State and federal regulators say that while some such investments are legitimate, others are mostly lures used by fraudsters to rip people off.

No industrywide figures on energy scams are available. But, "Energy markets are extremely hot, and we're seeing a lot (more) of these energy-based investment schemes," says Mary Schapiro, the incoming chief executive of NASD, a self-regulatory body for broker-dealers.

Oil prices have fallen this week as a Middle East cease-fire sparked hopes of easier access to energy supplies. Yet oil prices remain volatile, sparking interest from scamsters.

more

[UpInArms]

27. Sept Crude @ $69.70 bbl

10:16 AM ET 8/18/06 SEPT. CRUDE FALLS UNDER $70 FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE JUNE 21

10:16 AM ET 8/18/06 SEPT. CRUDE DOWN 36 CENTS AT $69.70/BRL AFTER $69.60 LOW

[UpInArms]

36. Sept Crude closes @ $71.14 bbl - NatGas @ $6.731 mln btus

2:58 PM ET 8/18/06 SEPT. CRUDE CLOSES AT $71.14/BRL, UP $1.08 FOR THE DAY

2:58 PM ET 8/18/06 SEPT. CRUDE LOSES $3.21, OR 4.3%, FOR THE WEEK

2:52 PM ET 8/18/06 SEPT. NATURAL GAS CLOSES AT $6.731/MLN BTUS, UP 4.2 CENTS

2:52 PM ET 8/18/06 SEPT. NATURAL GAS ENDS THE WEEK 7.4% LOWER

[ozymandius]

5. European stocks fall on profit taking

European stocks were lower on Friday as August volumes remained thin and investors took profits after upbeat manufacturing data from the Philadelphia Fed in the US caused new inflation concerns.

In early trade, the FTSE Eurofirst 300 was down 0.1 per cent at 1,358.85, while Frankfurt's Xetra Dax shed 0.2 per cent to 5,823.75. The CAC 40 in Paris lost 0.1 per cent to 5,140.36, but London's FTSE 100 gained 0.1 per cent to 5,907.9.

Overnight on Wall Street shares ended a little higher, but inflationary concerns returned as the latest manufacturing data from the Philadelphia Federal Reserve were unexpectedly strong. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.1 per cent to 11,334.96, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.4 per cent to 2,157.61. Later on Friday investors will be scrutinising consumer confidence as measured by Michigan University.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ft/20060818/bs_ft/fto081820060412404472

[ozymandius]

6. Tokyo stocks boosted by confidence in US

Japanese stocks rose mildly on Friday, boosted by renewed confidence in the US economy because of lower oil prices.

The Nikkei 225 was up 0.5 per cent to 16,105.98, with the Topix up 0.6 per cent to 1,641.45.

But securities companies reacted negatively to the news that Matsui Securities, one of the biggest online brokers, would scrap fees for some margin trading - the first to do so. Analysts are worried this could cut profits in the securities sector, which is already suffering from a slowing in the opening of new online accounts in the wake of February's Livedoor scandal.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ft/20060818/bs_ft/fto081820060342404470

[ozymandius]

7. London higher as defence stocks rally

London equities moved higher in opening trade on Friday, outperforming sluggish European markets as BAE Systems led the defence sector higher on news of a new jet order from Saudi Arabia.

The FTSE 100 was 0.1 per cent firmer at 5,907.8, a rise of 7 points whilst the FTSE 250 made gains of 0.2 per cent, or 20 points, to 9,507.3.

Overnight in New York, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the day in positive territory for the fourth consecutive session, a rally taking it to a renewed three-month high of 11,334.9. The index rose 7 points, or 0.1 per cent, on the day.

Back in London, and BAE Systems was 3.1 per cent higher at 371½p after the UK government agreed a £10bn deal with Saudi Arabia to provide the Arab nation with an new fleet of Eurofighter Typhoon fighter jets. The deal, which could be worth up to £20bn over its 25-year span when maintenance and upgrade work is taken into account, will be finalised later this year.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ft/20060818/bs_ft/fto081820060412404473

[ozymandius]

8. Tobacco companies 'deceived smokers' (duh)

Altria Group, parent of the Philip Morris tobacco companies, moved closer to spinning off its Kraft Foods unit after a federal judge ruled it had lied about the consequences of smoking but decided against imposing significant financial penalties.

In a 1,652 page opinion released on Thursday, Judge Gladys Kessler ruled the largest US cigarette companies violated anti-racketeering laws and ordered them to make corrective statements about the health effects and addictiveness of smoking. She also banned them from using terms describing cigarettes in ways that convey health claims.

"Cigarette smoking causes disease, suffering, and death," Judge Kessler said. "Despite internal recognition of this fact, defendants have publicly denied, distorted, and minimised the hazards of smoking for decades."

The judge stopped short of ordering the companies to fund a big anti-smoking campaign, as the government wanted.

http://msnbc.msn.com/id/14399983/

[ozymandius]

9. Have a great day folks!

:donut: :donut:
I must dash out the door. With any luck - I'll be able to check back in before closing.

Ozy :hi:

[AnneD]

19. Morning Marketeers,

:donut: and lurkers.

Heil Bush our new found leader for life. The police state is offical. I think you will find this report as disturbing as I do. Notice at the tail end of the piece the connection the reporter makes. Scary stuff.


http://www.click2houston.com/video/9697443/index.html


Folks on both side of the immigration issue were pissed at the GOP dog and pony show they called the immigration hearing. The presenters were cherry picked and all they were trying to do was make these illegal out to be criminals. They wanted to 'prove that illegal aliens cause an increase in the crime rate. Gotta love Bill White and Police Chief Heard. They both said the they would have to hire thousands of more officers but not for 'crime'-but to do INS functions. :rofl: Yah, the gov will give the states another unfunded mandate.


Happy hunting and watch out for the bears.

[54anickel]

10. Bush huddles with economic team as growth slows

http://today.reuters.com/news/articlenews.aspx?type=businessNews&storyID=2006-08-18T101924Z_01_N17407594_RTRUKOC_0_US-BUSH-ECONOMY.xml

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President George W. Bush will wrap up conferring with his economic team on Friday on ways to keep the economy growing against a backdrop of higher interest rates, mixed data and fears of rising inflation.

His closed-door meetings with new Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, Commerce Secretary Carlos Gutierrez and Director of the National Economic Council Allan Hubbard, began on Thursday evening at the Camp David presidential retreat.

"The President and his economic team will be talking about the general macroeconomic picture and job growth," White House spokeswoman Dana Perino said.

"They will discuss the budget both as a short-term and as a long-term entitlement spending issue," she said. "And they will focus on financial markets and pro-growth tax policy."

Bush is scheduled to speak with reporters at 11:15 a.m. EDT on Friday.

more...

[AnneD]

33. Wouldn't you love to be a fly ...

on the wall at that meeting. They really are reaching critical mass with the economy. The jobs numbers are so bogus as are the other numbers they generate. I bet the economy tanks before the '08 elections (maybe sooner). I sense some changes in the wind. The tighter they try to control the situation, the more it will slip through their fingers.

[54anickel]

11. Ford Motor to Cut 6,000 Salaried Jobs, Person Says (Update1)

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aNObFdAVKKwE&refer=us

Aug. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Ford Motor Co., after losing U.S. market share for a decade, is preparing to eliminate 6,000 salaried jobs in North America next month, according to a person familiar with the plan.

The reductions are equal to more than 16 percent of the white-collar workforce at Ford, the second-largest U.S. automaker, and come on top of a plan to eliminate as many as 30,000 jobs in North America by 2012.

Ford and General Motors Corp. have lost market share after record oil prices prompted consumers to favor fuel-efficient cars from Toyota Motor Corp. and Honda Motor Co. Dearborn, Michigan-based Ford said in July it will accelerate job reductions after a $1.44 billion first-half net loss.

``Things are going to get worse before they get better,'' David Healy, an analyst with Burnham Securities Inc. in Sierra Vista, Arizona, said yesterday. ``All of the earnings estimates being published on Ford right now are basically worthless.''

Ford will try to achieve the cuts by offering buyouts and will resort to firings if it doesn't meet the target, said the person, who asked not to be identified because the details aren't public.

more...

[UpInArms]

16. Ford slashes North American auto production

9:07 AM ET 8/18/06 FORD EXPECTS LOWER INDUSTRY-WIDE SALES OF LIGHT TRUCKS,
SUVS

9:06 AM ET 8/18/06 FORD TO UNVEIL FURTHER RESTRUCTURING MOVES IN SEPTEMBER

9:04 AM ET 8/18/06 FORD PLANS 9% REDUCTION IN 2006 OUTPUT TO 3.04B UNITS

9:02 AM ET 8/18/06 FORD CONFIRMS CUTTING Q4 PRODUCTION BY 21% OR 168,000 UNITS

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B9BE9DA3F%2D4AB4%2D47FF%2D887B%2DCDB70F575DA8%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Ford Motor (F : 8.17, -0.09, -1.1% ) said it was aggressively reducing North American auto production in an effort to reduce the supply of several models, reduce pressure on sales incentives and lower dealer inventory costs. The Dearborn, Mich. auto maker said it was cutting its fourth-quarter production by 21%, or 168,000 units, from year-earlier levels. For 2006, said it now expects to produce 3.05 million vehicles in North America, including 1.13 million cars and 1.91 million trucks, which is 9% below 2005 levels. The company said the new production plan will result in downtime at several assembly plants through the end of 2006. The stock closed Thursday down 9 cents at $8.17.

[UpInArms]

29. Fitch cuts Ford rating deeper into junk territory

http://today.reuters.com/news/articleinvesting.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-08-18T154731Z_01_WNA5333_RTRIDST_0_AUTOS-FORD-FITCH-URGENT.XML

NEW YORK, Aug 18 (Reuters) - Fitch Ratings on Friday cut its ratings on Ford Motor Co. (F.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and its finance arm deeper into junk territory, citing significant production cutbacks announced by the automaker earlier on Friday.

Fitch's action followed a warning earlier on Friday by another rating agency, Standard & Poor's, that it may cut Ford's ratings. S&P said Ford's production cuts and cost reductions expected to be announced in September reveal the extent of turnaround efforts needed to deal with the automaker's lower market share and excess capacity.

Fitch cut its issuer default ratings on Ford and its finance unit Ford Motor Credit Co. by one notch to "B," the fifth-highest junk rating, from "B-plus." The outlook is negative, meaning another cut is likely over the next one to two years.

[UpInArms]

32. Ford slashes production as gas prices sap demand

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?dist=newsfinder&siteid=mktw&guid=%7BA43D82D6%2D841B%2D42F9%2D8600%2DAD0D730BC66A%7D&symbol=

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) - Ford Motor Co., aiming to bring its production in line with waning demand, said Friday it will slash the number of vehicles it builds in North America by 21% in response to its flagging U.S. sales.

Shares of Ford (F : 7.93, -0.24, -2.9% ) lost 2.7% at $7.95 in midday trades.

The Dearborn, Mich. automaker said it will cut fourth-quarter production by 168,000 units from year-earlier levels, reflecting the continued consumer shift away from trucks and sports utility vehicles amid lofty gasoline prices.

"We know this decision will have a dramatic impact on our employees, as well as our suppliers," said CEO Bill Ford. "This is, however, the right call for our customers, our dealers and our long-term future."

While Ford's move is intended to better align supply and demand over the long haul, GimmeCredit analyst Craig Hutson said the short-term ramifications will be ugly.

"Trucks are Ford's most profitable vehicles, and the sharp decline in production volumes will make it more difficult to see any signs of a turnaround at Ford," he said.

...more...

[54anickel]

12. Tax Break Extended to All 401(k) Heirs

A benefit formerly just for spouses is made available to everyone, including gay partners.

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-fi-pension18aug18,0,2214748.story?coll=la-home-headlines

WASHINGTON — A little-noticed provision in a pension law signed Thursday by President Bush will for the first time allow anyone to inherit a 401(k) nest egg without immediately paying taxes on the windfall, a benefit that in the past was reserved for spouses.

Gay advocates and other observers described the measure as a significant shift in how the government treats domestic partners who are not married, even though the provision was not written specifically for same-sex couples.

"With this change, Congress is acknowledging that improvements can be made to our laws that address financial inequities and impediments that same-sex couples face," said James M. Delaplane Jr., an attorney and specialist on pension benefits. "There's no doubt about it."

The legal change is an obscure element in a new 907-page law affecting pensions and workplace-based retirement accounts. Proponents of the overall package hailed it as a long-sought effort to stabilize a system of retirement benefits that has grown porous. Many traditional pension plans are teetering on a base of shaky funding, and many companies are cutting back on future commitments.

"Americans who spend a lifetime working hard should be confident that their pensions will be there when they retire," Bush said as he signed the Pension Protection Act of 2006.

The change also was supported by much of the financial service industry, which is scrambling after a lucrative retirement-investment market as the baby boom generation gets older.

more...

[54anickel]

13. Bill would boost 401(k) plans

Measure could make employers abandon old-style pensions

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/chi-0608170211aug17,1,5853345.story?coll=chi-newsnationworld-hed

snip>

The 907-page measure, the most extensive revamping of the nation's pension laws in a generation, represents a decided shift in government policy. It favors such defined-contribution retirement plans as the highly popular 401(k) to which employees contribute money from their paychecks at a time when the number of Americans with company-funded pensions has been gradually declining.

Not only would the legislation give companies the right to automatically enroll new employees in their tax-deferred 401(k) plans, but it also would allow financial companies in which employees invest to offer them investment advice, a change critics called a conflict of interest. Under the bill, the Labor Department would have to approve the way investment advice is given.

snip>

At the same time, the bill would force companies with traditional defined-pension plans to move toward fully funding them over a seven-year period. Troubled airlines would get 17 years to meet the legislation's new standards.

Representatives of both business and labor said the tougher standards could cause more firms to freeze or drop their defined-pension programs -- a threat frequently made by corporations when the legislation was before Congress.

"The biggest long-term threat is that well-funded plans will exit the system," said James Klein, president of the American Benefits Council, an employer-backed group. He predicted that more companies would freeze their pensions as a result of having to put up more resources to fund their plans.

snip>

The legislation also makes permanent increased contribution limits for 401(k) plans and individual retirement accounts approved in 2001. For example, this year an employee may put as much as $15,000 into a 401(k) plan, and these limits are indexed to increase in $500 increments every year. Those over 50 may contribute an extra $5,000 this year, and that is also indexed to increase every year.

Ferguson said these contribution levels discriminate against lower-income Americans. "The bill institutionalizes unneeded tax breaks for highly paid people," she said. "It's totally unnecessary. It is something Wall Street wanted, and they got it."

more...

[AnneD]

37. What is unclear,

is how does this effect those with government pensions. There is not a single notation. I just really hate that you have no choice in the matter. I have dealt with folks selling 401k & 403B's. They are little more than sharks in suits. And educate the invester? PLUUEZE. While you are flipping through the charts, they are picking your pockets. Nothing is said in this about fees. You have no choice and they are going to eat any profit you make by charging fees to mismanage your money.

Winners: companies that manage 401/403's, businesses that sell stock on wall street (looks like we will be propping up the market after all.

Loosers: main street, workers that count on the stockmarket gains to retire, low wage earners, they can live a hard scrabble life and have a pittance to live on as their reward.

[54anickel]

39. Yep. They changed it from opt in to opt out, the percentage you put

is will be automatically increased for you (again, opt out) and the default used to be a money market type of account, now the company and investment firm can decide what they want the default to be. There wouldn't be a little conflict of interest playing in that decision, would there?

[UpInArms]

14. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 85.25 Change +0.21 (+0.25%)

Tomorrow's Economic Releases: US Confidence In The Wake Of Poor Housing Data

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/calendar/key_events/Tomorrow_s_Economic_Releases__US_Confidence_1155853191056.html

University of Michigan Confidence Survey (AUG) (13:45 GMT; 09:45 EST)

Consensus: 83.8
Previous: 84.7

Outlook: The University of Michigan’s Consumer Confidence Index, which provides investors with an idea of how consumers feel about spending their money, is forecasted to decline for a second straight month to 83.8 in August. As the consumer represents one of the pillars of economic growth, the sentiment gauge’s fall further and further from its historical average of 88.1 is worrisome considering the prominence of so many economic indicators that seem to be stalling. Perhaps the biggest drawl on the consumer’s wealth and optimism is the quickly deflating housing bubble. July housing starts plummeted to a two year low while building permits for the same month dropped a staggering 6.5%, the most since 1999, as Americans backed away from the burden of mortgage rates that are the highest they have been in recent history. There is potential for a rebound given June’s expectations for future spending component which rose by 0.5 points to 72.5. Also executive interviews from major retailers such as Wal-Mart and McDonald’s Corporations claim that they are yet to see a major slowdown in sales.

Previous: According to the University of Michigan’s survey, US consumer confidence fell in July while escalating tensions in the Middle East amounted concern that energy prices would erode their disposable income. The gauge fell to 84.7 from its sizeable jump to 84.9 in May as gasoline prices bested an average of $3 for a ten-month high. The measurement of current conditions, which reflects financial confidence for the purchase of big-ticket items, fell to 103.5 from 105. Despite higher unemployment, average hourly earnings rose by 3.9 percent in June which was the most since 2005.

...more...

[54anickel]

15. Pre-market yada

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -0.4. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -3.5. Aside from Dell's disappointment, and a recent downgrade of the semiconductor industry to Neutral from Favorable at Prudential, keeping tech in the spotlight, the tobacco industry will also be in focus today after a federal judge ruled the industry violated racketeering laws. However, since the judge also ruled that tobacco companies could not be forced to fund a multibillion-dollar quit-smoking campaign, Dow component Altria Group (MO) is surging nearly 4% to an all-time high in pre-market trading, which could limit what looks to be sluggish start for blue chips.

08:30 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -0.8. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -4.0. Still shaping up to be lower open for equities as futures indications continue to languish in negative territory. Adding to early reserve on the part of buyers is typical nervousness tied in part to geopolitical uncertainty heading into the weekend while the absence of economic data before the open to set a more definitive tone to trading is also leaving the door open for sellers to consolidate gains that have lifted the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 2.3%, 2.5% and 4.9%, respectively, this week alone. The University of Michigan Sentiment report is the only item on the economic calendar today, which may garner some attention when it's released at 9:50 ET, but isn't expected to have much influence on today's proceedings.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -1.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -3.3. Futures versus fair value suggest sellers may have the upper hand when the opening bell sounds, as four days of gains incite some early profit taking. Given the scope of renewed enthusiasm throughout Technology, Dell (DELL) posting a 51% drop in Q2 profits and saying SEC regulators are investigating its accounts may offer an excuse to lock in some of the tech sector's 6.3% gain this week. Add in a 1.2% rebound in crude oil prices following four days of consolidation and a reminder that the pace of corporate profit growth worldwide is under pressure amid rising borrowing costs after China raised interest rates overnight and the stage looks set for stocks to open on a downbeat note.

06:37 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -1.3. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.8.

06:37 am : FTSE...5916.30...+15.90...+0.3%. DAX...5829.29...-4.22...-0.1%.

06:37 am : Nikkei...16105.98...+85.14...+0.5%. Hang Seng...17330.70...-42.35...-0.2%.

[UpInArms]

17. US Treasuries steady in breather from bullish week

http://today.reuters.com/news/articleinvesting.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-08-18T131303Z_01_N18325581_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-BONDS.XML

NEW YORK, Aug 18 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury debt prices were little changed early on Friday, as traders took a breather from a week of strong gains based on tame inflation data that hinted the Federal Reserve may not have to raise rates next month.

Traders were waiting for a reading on August consumer sentiment later on Friday morning for further short-term market direction. However, they said the overall market tone remained somewhat bullish as the idea held sway that tame inflation could keep the Fed in pause mode.

"The underlying positive sentiment in the market right now is keeping a bid in there," said Marty Mitchell, chief government trader at Stifel Nicolaus in Baltimore, Maryland.

The benchmark 10-year note <US10YT=RR>_was trading unchanged in price on Friday for a yield of 4.87 percent. The benchmark yield has fallen over 13 basis points since Monday, marking the biggest weekly upward move in price since late May.

Those rising prices, and falling yields, were driven this week by tamer-than-expected readings on price inflation for July, along with evidence of a weakening housing market.

...more...

[UpInArms]

20. Printing Press Hums: Fed adds bank reserves via over-the-weekend repos

http://today.reuters.com/news/articleinvesting.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-08-18T133609Z_01_N18345021_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-FED-OPERATIONS.XML

NEW YORK, Aug 18 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve said on_Friday it added temporary reserves to the U.S. banking system through over-the-weekend repurchase agreements.

Fed funds last traded at 5.25 percent, the Fed's target for the benchmark overnight lending rate.

For further details on the operation, see http://www.ny.frb.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm

[UpInArms]

22. 9:43 EST mexed missages (with updated blather)

Dow 11,370.34 +35.38 (+0.31%)
Nasdaq 2,154.11 -3.50 (-0.16%)
S&P 500 1,298.10 +0.62 (+0.05%)
10-Yr Bond 4.861 -0.006 (-0.12%)

NYSE Volume 215,449,000
Nasdaq Volume 193,831,000

09:40 am : So much for taking a breather following four straight days of gains as influential leadership helps the blue chip indices shrug off early weakness and position the Dow and S&P 500 to make it five for five. Altria Group (MO 83.44 +2.69) opening sharply higher at its best levels ever, after a judge declined to order cigarette makers to fund quit-smoking programs, and fellow Dow component Microsoft (MSFT 25.10 +0.40) climbing after increasing its share buyback program by $16.2 bln, are providing the bulk of early support. The Nasdaq, however, is under modest pressure at the onset as an 8% sell-off in Dell (DELL 20.97 -1.83), after posting a 51% decline in Q2 profits and saying the SEC is conducting an informal probe of its revenue recognition practices, offers an excuse to consolidate some of the tech-heavy Composite's 4.9% surge this week.DJ30 +28.12 NASDAQ -3.89 SP500 +1.01 NASDAQ Vol 176 mln NYSE Vol 148 mln

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +1.3. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +0.5. Futures trades improves noticeably over the last 15 minutes, now pointing to a slightly higher open for the indices. Acting as the biggest source of recent support has been Microsoft (MSFT), which is increasing its ongoing share repurchase program by $16.2 bln. As the fifth most influential component in the S&P 500 index, Microsoft surging 1.8% in pre-market trading has so far been enough to turn around this morning's course of action.

[UpInArms]

25. 9:58 EST maybe not a good w/e to own stock?

Dow 11,326.00 -8.96 (-0.08%)
Nasdaq 2,140.53 -17.08 (-0.79%)
S&P 500 1,294.22 -3.26 (-0.25%)
10-Yr Bond 4.859 -0.008 (-0.16%)

NYSE Volume 332,122,000
Nasdaq Volume 291,433,000

[UpInArms]

28. 10:34 EST numbers and blather and bye!

Dow 11,322.07 -12.89 (-0.11%)
Nasdaq 2,141.18 -16.43 (-0.76%)
S&P 500 1,294.04 -3.44 (-0.27%)
10-Yr Bond 4.855 -0.012 (-0.25%)

NYSE Volume 576,260,000
Nasdaq Volume 491,379,000

10:30 am : Indices are still on the defensive as seven out of 10 sectors remain negative. Pacing the way lower is Technology (-0.8%), as Dell's (DELL 21.16 -1.64) 7% decline weighs on Computer Hardware while a sharp pullback in Advanced Micro Devices (AMD 22.93 -1.27), erasing most of its upgrade-induced 7% surge yesterday, takes a toll on chip stocks. Another noteworthy sector to the downside is Consumer Discretionary, as dismal Q2 results and downside guidance from Gap (GPS 16.58 -0.72) leave Apparel Retail (-2.0%) as this morning's worst performing S&P industry group. DJ30 -9.28 NASDAQ -14.80 SOX -2.0% SP500 -2.81 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1766/798/474 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1752/1087/376 mln

gotta run - will check back in later :hi:

[UpInArms]

30. 12:13 EST red numbers and outsourced blather

Dow 11,328.48 -6.48 (-0.06%)
Nasdaq 2,148.75 -8.86 (-0.41%)
S&P 500 1,296.22 -1.26 (-0.10%)
10-Yr Bond 4.843 -0.024 (-0.49%)

NYSE Volume 998,936,000
Nasdaq Volume 845,134,000

12:00 pm : Market is still struggle to regain its positive footing midday, which isn't all that surprising following such a huge run-up in stocks over the last four days.

Given the scope of renewed enthusiasm throughout Technology, which has lifted the sector more than 6% this week alone, Dell (DELL 21.15 -1.65) posting a 51% drop in Q2 profits and announcing an SEC probe is offering an excuse for investors to lock in some of gains and overshadowing Microsoft (MSFT 25.37 +0.67) boosting its buyback plan by $16.2 bln. Feeling the brunt of pressure from profit takers, however, has been chip stocks, as a sharp pullback in Advanced Micro Devices (AMD 23.16 -1.04) more than halving its upgrade-induced 7% surge yesterday contributes to the PHLX Semiconductor Sector Index relinquishing some of its 10% week-to-date advance. Marvell Technology Group (MRVL 18.65 -1.83) lowering its full-year earnings forecast and Prudential downgrading the semiconductor industry are also removing much of the group's recent leadership.

Also sidelining buyers has been a reminder that rising borrowing costs worldwide, after China hiked interest rates for the second time in five months, continue to put pressure on the pace of global corporate profit growth. Add to that a modest rebound in crude oil prices following four days of consolidation as well as a larger than expected decline in early August consumer sentiment, as compiled by the University of Michigan, and the possibility of the broader market extending its winning to five days remains questionable. BTK -0.3% DJ30 -2.72 DJTA -0.9% DJUA +1.2% DOT -0.3% NASDAQ -9.78 NQ100 -0.5% R2K -0.5% SOX -1.4% SP400 -0.2% SP500 -1.56 XOI +0.4% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1745/1036/810 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1795/1249/632 mln

[UpInArms]

31. market statistics

12:31 PM ET 8/18/06 NYSE VOLUME 693.6M

12:31 PM ET 8/18/06 NASDAQ VOLUME 899.9M

12:31 PM ET 8/18/06 NYSE HAS 1,331 ADVANCERS

12:31 PM ET 8/18/06 NYSE HAS 1,741 DECLINERS

12:31 PM ET 8/18/06 NYSE HAS 178 ISSUES UNCHANGED

12:31 PM ET 8/18/06 NASDAQ HAS 1,126 ADVANCERS

12:31 PM ET 8/18/06 NASDAQ HAS 1,700 DECLINERS

12:31 PM ET 8/18/06 NASDAQ HAS 145 ISSUES UNCHANGED

12:31 PM ET 8/18/06 NYSE HAS 29 ISSUES SETTING 52-WEEK HIGHS

12:31 PM ET 8/18/06 NYSE HAS 4 ISSUES SETTING 52-WEEK LOWS

12:31 PM ET 8/18/06 NASDAQ HAS 25 ISSUES SETTING 52-WEEK HIGHS

12:31 PM ET 8/18/06 NASDAQ HAS 26 ISSUES SETTING 52-WEEK LOWS

[UpInArms]

34. Princeton Economics trader pleads guilty to securities fraud

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B010C98F9%2DC8D0%2D49CE%2D95F5%2D6419903DE1B6%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- A former currency trader who prosecutors say ran a $3 billion ponzi scheme pleaded guilty to conspiracy to commit securities fraud and commodities fraud, the U.S. Attorney's Office said late Thursday. Prosecutors said Martin Armstrong, former head of Princeton Economics, defrauded 139 investors of about $700 million between 1992 and 1999. Armstrong, 56, faces up to five years in prison and a fine of $250,000. He has been in jail since 2000 stemming from related charges brought by the Securities and Exchange Commission and Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

[UpInArms]

35. 2:56 EST a bumpin' and a thumpin' into the green

Dow 11,356.41 +21.45 (+0.19%)
Nasdaq 2,158.41 +0.80 (+0.04%)
S&P 500 1,300.16 +2.68 (+0.21%)
10-Yr Bond 4.839 -0.028 (-0.58%)

NYSE Volume 1,582,500,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,314,975,000

3% and at its best levels since late April is providing the bulk of support behind this afternoon's recovery efforts as the fifth most influential component in the S&P 500 index. As a reminder, a trifecta of discouraging news from Microsoft on April 27 -- a Q3 earnings miss, Q4 warning, and higher spending for '07 -- pushed the bellwether to a 52-week low, down 11% to mark its worst one-day decline since 2000 and erasing about $33 bln in market capitalization.DJ30 +19.61 NASDAQ -3.01 SP500 +2.09 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1738/1177/1.22 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1714/1467/942 mln

2:00 pm : While the indices are still trading in a relatively tight range, it is evident that sentiment continues to improve. As reflected in the A/D line, decliners on the NYSE now hold only an 8-to-7 edge over advancers while those on the Nasdaq hold a narrow 4-to-3 margin. Be that as it may, the lack of participation, as the Big Board runs the risk of barely seeing 1 bln shares exchange hands today, lends little conviction behind the bulls lackluster efforts to keep the week-long rally intact. DJ30 +9.53 NASDAQ -4.18 SP500 +1.47 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1664/1215/1.14 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1674/1485/878 mln

[UpInArms]

38. closing: ponies and ice cream for everyone!

Dow 11,381.47 +46.51 (+0.41%)
Nasdaq 2,163.95 +6.34 (+0.29%)
S&P 500 1,302.30 +4.82 (+0.37%)
10-Yr Bond 4.835 -0.032 (-0.66%)

NYSE Volume 2,038,855,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,724,166,000

old blather - will update later when available

3:30 pm : More of the same for stocks as the indices are on track to make it five for five, no matter how modest the gains. Interestingly, all three major averages are now rising in synch with each other and logging roughly the same percentage (+0.25%) gains, which suggests that some program trading could be behind the now broad-based move to the upside. Energy (+1.2%) is still pacing the way higher from a sector leadership standpoint, helping investors grapple with oil prices recently closing near session highs (+1.2%); but respective gains of 4.0% and 3.4% on Dow components Microsoft (MSFT 25.69 +0.99) and Altria Group (MO 83.53 +2.78) -- two of the ten most influential blue chips accounting for a combined 3.1% of the total weighting on the S&P 500 -- remain mostly responsible for today's uptick. DJ30 +30.42 NASDAQ +5.18 SP500 +3.62 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1583/1371/1.44 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1536/1666/1.11 bln

3:00 pm : Finally, after having trading in the red all day, the Nasdaq is back in the green; but hovering just above the flat line and Nasdaq market internals still modestly bearish don't leave investors too much to get overly excited about. Aside from Microsoft's 3.2% surge, the PHLX Semiconductor Sector Index, which was off as much as 2.3% and now down only 0.3%, has been another big reason for the tech-heavy Composite's turnaround. Dell (DELL 22.16 -0.64), which was off more than 9% and now paring back about two thirds of that loss, has also helped restore some hope that valuations throughout the underperforming tech sector remain attractive at current levels.DJ30 +21.93 NASDAQ +0.90 SOX -0.3% SP500 +2.65 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1616/1311/1.33 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1517/1668/1.03 bln

[AnneD]

40. Yummmmm

I gained three pounds just scrolling through that sundae!

[UpInArms]

41. hoo-hah buyback blather

Stocks extended their winning streak Friday to five days as early attempts to lock in recent gains faded throughout the afternoon due largely to some notable leadership in tech, tobacco and energy.

After kicking off a busy week with a four-day rally, stocks initially looked tired Friday, as disappointing news from Dell (DELL 22.16 -0.64), a rate hike in China and a rebound in oil looked to provide a recipe for consolidation.

However, when it was all said and done, bulls continued to call the shots, embracing a boosted share buyback plan from Microsoft (MSFT 25.79 +1.09) and a historic high on shares of Altria Group (MO 83.92 +3.17) following a favorable court ruling. Big gains in both Dow components, which are also among two of the ten most influential S&P 500 constituents, eventually helped investors look past an SEC probe into Dell's accounting practices, a reminder that rising borrowing costs worldwide may slow corporate profit growth, and oil's ability to put upward pressure on overall inflation.

Of the eight sectors posting gains, Energy paced the way higher, as companies like Dow component Exxon Mobil (XOM 68.95 +0.87) benefited from oil prices closing higher for the first time in five days. Crude oil futures rose 1.5% to over $71 per barrel amid Iran sanction fears and a sense that the commodity was oversold, having slipped more than 4% this week.

Technology, led by Microsoft's 4.4% surge and a turnaround in chip stocks, where at one point the PHLX Semiconductor Sector Index was down as much as 2.3%, also provided notable leadership. Albeit posting only a modest gain, the rate-sensitive Financials sector turning the corner late in the day, as bond yields closed at their lowest levels since April, was another source of support that helped send sellers heading into the weekend hanging their heads. DJ30 +46.51 DJTA -0.4% DJUA +1.3% DOT +0.4% NASDAQ +6.34 NQ100 +0.2% R2K +0.1% SOX -0.1% SP400 +0.2% SP500 +4.82 XOI +1.3% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1403/1570/1.71 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1400/1842/1.34 bln

Have a great weekend all! :hi: