STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday 25 July

[ozymandius]

Tuesday July 25, 2006

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 911 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2040 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 1740 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1701
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 6
Enron execs conveniently deceased = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON July 24, 2006

Dow... 11,051.05 +182.67 (+1.68%)
Nasdaq... 2,061.84 +41.45 (+2.05%)
S&P 500... 1,260.91 +20.62 (+1.66%)
Gold future... 613.20 -7.00 (-1.14%)
30-Year Bond 5.10% UNCH (UNCH)
10-Yr Bond... 5.04% -0.00 (-0.02%)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver


PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Rob Kirby

LOSING OUR CENTS

This was in the news last week. Now tell me, does this make any sense:

Kill-the-penny bill introduced
Citing spiraling zinc costs, Rep. Jim Kolbe continues his quest to eliminate the 1-cent piece.

By Christian Zappone, CNNMoney.com staff writer
July 18 2006: 2:19 PM EDT

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Representative Jim Kolbe wants to do away with the penny - and for a second time has introduced legislation that would effectively kill it.

The Currency Overhaul for an Industrious Nation (COIN) Act would force the rounding off of all cash transactions to the nearest 5 cents, making the penny coin useless for everyday transactions

Also in the news last week; What Can Happen When You Lose Too Much Cents

Zimbabwe: Country's Zeros Baffle Computers
Financial Gazette (Harare)
July 20, 2006
Posted to the web July 20, 2006
Rangarirai Mberi
Harare

NOW, even the computers are having trouble making sense of all those zeros. Some 72 representatives from commercial banks and the central bank have met to discuss the hard time their computers are having reading the zeros on Zimdollar transactions.

Apparently, software -- obviously written for normal economies -- is now failing to handle "transactions amounting to trillions and therefore creating an urgent need for a solution", according to minutes of the meeting seen by The Financial Gazette.

What’s Really Going On Here or The Dickens You Say?

Money is being debased on a grand scale – and increasingly more so over the past 15 – 16 years. In fact, so much money is being debased and on such a grand scale, I cannot help but feel that there are greater forces at work.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[acmejack]

12. Some very interesting (read depressing) thoughts there

snip>
As to the last item that was conveniently “tacked on to” the very end of the COIN Act – the part about transferring oversight of the U.S. Mint and Bureau of Engraving from the Treasury to the Federal Reserve – does this gang really exemplify the type of ‘straight shooting folks’ anyone would really want in charge of their soup kitchen?

snip>
To this, I’d like to offer the following: more than few have cottoned on to the goings on. We’re all in hotter soup than almost anyone could have ever imagined. At some point there will be hell to pay; the witch hunts will soon begin.

[jimbot]

23. I always thought the penny was mostly copper.

Guess I'm behind the times...this from wikipedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cent_%28U.S._coin%29)

The cent's composition was changed in 1982 because the value of the copper in the coin started to rise above one cent. Some 1982 cents use the 97.6% zinc composition, while others used the 95% copper composition. In 1943, at the peak of World War II, cents of zinc-plated steel were made for a short time due to war demands for copper. A few (the U.S. Mint reports forty) copper cents from 1943 were produced from the 1942 planchets remaining in the bins. Similarly, some 1944 steel cents have been reported. Following 1943, salvaged ammunition shells made their way into the minting process, and it was not uncommon to see coins featuring streaks of brass or having a considerably darker finish than other issues.
1974 aluminum cent from the Smithsonian.
Enlarge
1974 aluminum cent from the Smithsonian.

During the early 1970s, the price of copper rose to a point where the penny almost contained more than one cent's worth of copper. This led the Mint to test alternate metals, including aluminum and bronze-clad steel. Aluminum was chosen, and over 1.5 million of these were struck and ready for public release before ultimately being rejected. About a dozen aluminum cents are believed to still be in the hands of collectors, although they are now considered illegal, and are subject to seizure by the Secret Service. One aluminum cent was donated to the Smithsonian Institution.

The price of copper later returned to profitable levels. The Mint did not need to change the cent's composition again until 1982.

As of June 29, 2006, the price of copper is $3.42 per pound and zinc is $1.50 per pound. At these prices, the pre-1982 copper cent contains 2.204 cents worth of copper metal; it is now potentially profitable to melt them down. Presumably with the rapid rise in price for zinc (more than doubled in the last six months), the US Mint will have to find another alternative. Just the scrap zinc in a cent is worth 0.9 cents. With the costs of manufacturing and distribution, the net cost to produce one cent is about $0.0123, significantly higher than the face value of the coin.

--JT

[ozymandius]

2. Today's Reports

10:00 AM Consumer Confidence Jul
Briefing Forecast 106.5
Market Expects 104.0
Prior 105.7

10:00 AM Existing Home Sales Jun
Briefing Forecast 6.70M
Market Expects 6.60M
Prior 6.67M

[UpInArms]

24. 10:00 Reports in:

10:00 AM ET 7/25/06 U.S. HOME PRICE GAINS LOWEST IN 10 YEARS

10:00 AM ET 7/25/06 U.S. JUNE HOME INVENTORY 6.8 MONTHS, 9-YEAR HIGH

10:00 AM ET 7/25/06 U.S. JUNE EXISTING HOME MEDIAN PRICE UP 0.9% Y-O-Y

10:00 AM ET 7/25/06 U.S. JUNE EXISTING HOME INVENTORIES UP 3.8% TO 3.725 MLN

10:00 AM ET 7/25/06 U.S. JUNE HOME SALES ABOVE 6.58 MLN EXPECTED

10:00 AM ET 7/25/06 U.S. JUNE EXISTING HOME SALES FALL 1.3% TO 6.62 MLN

10:00 AM ET 7/25/06 U.S. CONSUMER INFLATION EXPECTATIONS HOLD STEADY IN JULY

10:00 AM ET 7/25/06 U.S. JULY CONSUMER CONFIDENCE ABOVE CONSENSUS 103.9

10:00 AM ET 7/25/06 U.S. JULY CONSUMER CONFIDENCE UP TO 106.5 VS REV 105.4 JUNE

[UpInArms]

25. U.S. June existing home sales fall to 6.62 million

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B3E930913%2D5951%2D485B%2DB6B0%2D2068EA4E4EF2%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Sales of existing homes fell 1.3% in June to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 6.62 million, the National Association of Realtors said Tuesday. Economists were expecting a decline to 6.58 million. The inventory of unsold homes rose to a record 3.725 million, a 6.8 month supply at the June sales rate, the highest since July 1997. The median price has risen 0.9% in the past year to $231,000. It's the weakest price growth in 10 years. "I hope we are hitting bottom," said David Lereah, chief economist for the private real estate trade group. Sales of existing homes in May were revised up to 6.71 million from 6.67 million.

[54anickel]

36. "I hope we are hitting bottom" ...that's the best he could come up with?

The chief economist of a real estate trade group says he hopes we are hitting bottom? Where's that confident tone these economists were using when they were claiming there was no downside to real estate, there was going to be a smooth, almost unnoticeable landing, real estate always goes up.

[UpInArms]

26. U.S. consumer confidence moves higher in July (See How Happy Your Are!?!)

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BC5481A6C%2D2548%2D4C81%2DBAEF%2DA948AFC61B6E%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. consumer confidence strengthened a bit in July, the Conference Board said Tuesday. The consumer confidence index rose to 106.5 in July from a revised 105.4 in June. The gain was unexpected. Economists forecast the index to slip to 103.9 in July from the initial June estimate of 105.7. The present situation index rose to 133.0 from 132.2, while the expectations index edged up to 88.8 from 87.5. Expectations of inflation one year in the future held steady in July.

[ozymandius]

3. Oil holds above $75 on Mideast, refinery outages

LONDON (Reuters) - Oil rose further above $75 a barrel on Tuesday as dealers saw little hope for a quick end to the conflict in Lebanon and refinery outages threatened to tighten supplies in the midst of the U.S. summer driving season.

U.S. crude for September rose 37 cents to $75.42 a barrel by 0955 GMT, climbing for a third day, while London Brent crude gained 43 cents to $75.04.

-cut-

REFINERY OUTAGES

Gains gathered pace after traders said a crude distillation unit at Venezuela's Amuay refinery -- part of the world's biggest refining complex and a top supplier of U.S. gasoline imports -- will be shut for five to seven months following a fire last week.

Hiccups at several U.S. plants, forecasts for a tropical disturbance to form in the Gulf of Mexico in the next few days and news that Royal Dutch Shell (RDSa.L) had been forced to trim more output at its Nigerian Bonny oilfields added to the unease.

more

[ozymandius]

4. BP profits hit record on high oil

LONDON (Reuters) - Oil major BP beat forecasts with a 23 percent rise in replacement cost net profit to a record $6.11 billion on Tuesday, as high oil prices and strong refining margins more than made up for a drop in output.

But BP also said its capital spending would rise around 5 percent this year due to cost inflation and it would spend $1 billion more over the next four years to improve safety at its U.S. refineries and to upgrade pipelines in Alaska.

The refineries have had a number of fatal accidents in the past two years and BP has suffered a series of leaks in Alaska.

more

[UpInArms]

16. Crude gains as hopes for Mideast solution fade (@ $75.53 bbl)

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/6xGzl2BCPMJZhXc8p8N6qPL?siteid=mktw&dist=morenews

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - Crude-oil futures rose for a third consecutive session Tuesday, as the conflict in the Middle East entered its 14th day with Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert vowing to continue the offensive against Hezbollah in Lebanon.

News that Royal Dutch Shell has been forced to shut in 180,000 barrels per day of crude production in Nigeria because of a pipeline leak, and the continued closure of a ConocoPhillips (COP : 65.78, +2.15, +3.4% ) refinery in Illinois following severe storms last week added to the downdraft.

Crude for oil delivery was last trading up 48 cents at $75.53 a barrel. The contract rose Monday as natural-gas futures rocketed on expectations triple-digit temperatures across much of the U.S. would boost energy demand.

Oil also rose as hopes that diplomatic efforts would lead to some resolution of the Israel/Lebanon conflict dimmed. U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice held talks with the Israeli prime minister who said Israel will continues its campaign and take "most severe measures" against Hezbollah, dampening hopes for a ceasefire.

The fighting continued overnight with heavy bombing of the Lebanese coastal city of Tyre. Haifa, Israel's third-biggest city, was hit by rockets fired from inside Lebanon.

...more...

[54anickel]

45. Will Mexico Soon Be Tapped Out? (Uh-oh)

A rapid demise of Cantarell, the country's chief oil field, could pose a serious economic threat.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x2409883

MEXICO CITY — Output at Mexico's most important oil field has fallen steeply this year, raising fears that wells there that generate 60% of the country's petroleum are in the throes of a major decline.

Production at Cantarell, the world's second-largest oil complex, in the shallow gulf waters off the shore of Mexico's southern Campeche state, averaged just over 1.8 million barrels a day in May, according to the most recent government figures. That's a 7% drop from the first of the year and the lowest monthly output since July 2005, when Hurricane Emily forced the evacuation of thousands of oil workers from the region.

Though analysts have long forecast the withering of this mature field, a rapid demise would pose serious challenges for the world's No. 5 oil producer. The oil field has supplied the bulk of Mexico's oil riches for the last quarter of a century, and petroleum revenue funds more than a third of federal spending.

"Cantarell is going to fall a lot, and quickly," said independent consultant Guillermo Cruz Dominguez Vargas, a former executive with Mexico's state-owned oil monopoly, Petroleos Mexicanos, known as Pemex. "I can't imagine the strain on this society if there is nothing to replace it."

It would also be bad news for the United States, for which Mexico is the No. 2 petroleum supplier, behind Canada. And it could exacerbate tight global supplies that have kept oil at record prices.

more...

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-pemex24jul24,1,6754747.story?coll=la-headlines-business

[ozymandius]

5. Europe flat as weak banks offset oil gains

European equities steadied after volatile early trade on Tuesday, as better-than-expected corporate earnings outweighed profit taking among financial stocks ahead of quarterly results from the sector.

The main European indices turned higher by mid morning as carmakers and energy stocks strengthened. The FTSE Eurofirst 300 turned 0.4 per cent higher to 1,320.14.

Frankfurt's Xetra Dax was gained 0.3 per cent to 5,597.32, while the CAC 40 in Paris was 0.7 per cent higher at 4,948.31. In London, the FTSE 100 climbed 0.4 per cent to 5,859.7.

-cut-

Foremost among the companies reporting in Europe on Tuesday was BP, the UK oil major, which beat expectations with a 23 per cent rise in replacement cost net profit to a record $6.12bn as high oil prices offset a drop in production. The company said the top line had also been hit by higher tax charges.

more

[Ghost Dog]

52. Europe shares end mixed, profits good but NY weighs

http://investing.reuters.co.uk/investing/MarketReportArticle.aspx?type=eurMktRpt&storyID=2006-07-25T163935Z_01_L25062620_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-EUROPE-STOCKS-UPDATE-4.XML

LONDON, July 25 (Reuters) - European shares ended mixed on Tuesday after weakness on Wall Street erased gains fuelled by solid earnings and strong mining shares.

Norwegian industrial group Norsk Hydro (NHY.OL: Quote, Profile, Research) surged 6 percent after posting a 30 percent rise in quarterly operating profit, but BP (BP.L: Quote, Profile, Research) dipped as concerns such as rising costs helped counter record, forecast-beating second-quarter profits.

The FTSEurofirst 300 <.FTEU3> index of top European shares closed 0.09 percent higher at 1,315.53 points, having risen as high as 1,321.01 in mid-session.

<snip>

Around Europe, Germany's DAX <.GDAXI> dipped 0.2 percent, France's CAC 40 <.FCHI> rose 0.4 percent and Britain's FTSE 100 <.FTSE> added 0.3 percent.

/more...

[Ghost Dog]

53. Bourses pare early gains but Norsk leaps

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/91949202-1ba7-11db-a555-0000779e2340.html

BP’s results and management difficulties might have dominated the oil sector headlines on Tuesday but it was Norsk Hydro’s share price performance that caught the eye.

The stock jumped 6.1 per cent to NKr173 after the oil and aluminium producer unveiled a 30 per cent jump in second-quarter operating profits.

Merrill Lynch noted the particular strength in its oil and energy business on the back of lower exploration expenses. But the broker reduced its estimate for full-year earnings per share by 3 per cent, and maintained its “neutral” rating on the stock because of a relatively weak performance by its aluminium division.

Norsk Hydro shares have climbed about 25 per cent this year but have drifted back from a high of NKr199.40 struck in April.

Rival oil group Statoil gained 4.2 per cent to NKr186 and OMV climbed 3.2 per cent to €47.45.

The FTSE Eurofirst 300 index relinquished an early advance to close at 1,315.53, up 1.23 points or 0.1 per cent. The index had risen as high as 1,321.01.

/more stocks details...

[ozymandius]

6. Nissan quarterly profit rises 4.2 percent

TOKYO - Nissan Motor Co. said Tuesday its net profit rose 4.2 percent in the most recent quarter on improved sales and a lack of one-time charges that hurt earnings the previous year.

Group net profit at Japan's second-biggest automaker during the April-June quarter totaled 110.2 billion yen ($945 million), up from 105.7 billion yen a year ago.

The results come amid keen interest about a possible three-way alliance among Nissan, its partner Renault SA of France and General Motors Corp.

If the talks pan out, the emerging alliance will cover all three major auto regions — the U.S., Japan and Europe — and will be the biggest ever in sheer size, boasting a combined production of 15 million vehicles, or nearly one-fourth of world production.

more

[ozymandius]

7. Few hopes of salvage of WTO talks

The European Union waded out to salvage some sort of a deal from the wreck of world trade talks, but experts said the tide has turned foul for three years because of US elections.

-cut-

The Doha Round of free-trade talks at the World Trade Organisation was suspended yesterday amid acrimony among trading heavyweights over who refused final concessions to seal an international treaty injecting billions of dollars into the world economy.

-cut-

But in crunch talks on Sunday and yesterday, negotiators from Australia, Brazil, the EU, India, Japan and the US failed to settle their differences, mostly because of spats over Washington's refusal to offer more cuts in its billions of dollars of subsidies to US farmers unless others reduced their import duties on agricultural goods.

Deeper cuts would have been tough for Washington to sell domestically ahead of crucial mid-term elections in November, unless US negotiators could show they had obtained more from their counterparts on customs duties. Negotiators had hoped to find a deal before it became even tougher to reach an agreement.

http://www.rte.ie/business/2006/0725/wto.html

[ozymandius]

9. Bush and the push for Doha

President George W Bush less than two weeks ago urged the Group of Eight (G8) to recommit to successfully concluding the Doha Round of World Trade Organization (WTO) negotiations. Now, the United States is being blamed for collapse of talks at the weekend.

The final rift between the ministers of the Group of Six (G6), made up of the United States, the European Union, Australia, Brazil, India and Japan, was sparked by the question of agriculture - the same issue that has made the climate of the talks tense from the very start.

The EU, especially, but also India and Brazil - the coordinators of the Group of 20 (G20) developing countries that share common agricultural interests - held the US responsible for the failure of the talks because of its refusal to cut the subsidies shelled out to American farmers.

-cut-

Advocates claim a new global trade pact would raise millions from poverty. Sadly, though, a Doha agreement would benefit mostly the wealthy and large multinational corporations. It would offer little for smaller developing countries or farmers and workers in industrialized nations.

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/HG26Dj01.html

[54anickel]

39. ASEAN push for single market

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,19914724-2703,00.html

KUALA LUMPUR: A summit of Southeast Asian states called for closer economic integration yesterday, a day after global trade talks collapsed.
Malaysian Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi, who chairs the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, told foreign ministers from the group's 10 member states that they had no choice but to forge tighter economic bonds and develop a regional community.

"We have to become a true community because we cannot change our geography," he said as he opened the tightly guarded meeting.

ASEAN foreign ministers are expected to say how they might accelerate the group's target to form a single-market community, bringing the deadline forward by five years to 2015.

There are concerns within ASEAN, echoed in Mr Abdullah's opening remarks, that in the absence of another round of global trade liberalisation, Southeast Asia may fall behind big trading powers and blocs unless it hastens trade and economic integration.

snip>

US negotiators refused to take the blame for the collapse of the latest round of talks in Geneva.

Senior American politicians said that for now, the US administration should go its own way by pressing ahead with bilateral free trade pacts with major trading partners such as South Korea and Malaysia.

more...

[ozymandius]

8. California avoids rolling blackouts - barely

Record electricity demand in California on Monday closed in on levels not expected for another five years, raising the prospect that we could face another summer power crisis like the one that brought us rolling blackouts in 2000 and 2001.

The state only avoided blackouts Monday because every available power plant, including some not usually in service, ran at full capacity and residents curtailed their energy use, according to the California Independent System Operator. And about 1 p.m., state officials declared a Stage 2 power emergency, requiring some companies to switch off the power grid and fire up their own generators.

Power demand peaked midafternoon at 50,270 megawatts statewide -- up about 8 percent from just a week ago and more than 20 percent above the level seen during the 2000-2001 power crisis. Demand is expected to exceed 50,000 megawatts again today, just 2,000 megawatts less than the load that wasn't expected until 2011.

http://www.mercurynews.com/mld/mercurynews/news/local/15114582.htm

[ozymandius]

10. Higher fares boost United

United Airlines' eight ticket price increases this year helped raise the bottom line.

Aided by higher prices and more passengers, United posted its second consecutive quarterly profit after exiting bankruptcy.

The results exceeded analysts' estimates, and the shares climbed as much as 13% before closing up $1.25, or 4.6%, to $28.20.

http://www.nydailynews.com/business/story/437782p-368883c.html

[Roland99]

11. Shameless plug for DU Folding@Home Team

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=364&topic_id=1721276&mesg_id=1721276

Help out the team and join up and help keep the thread kicked!


:D

[acmejack]

13. Thanks again for doing this daily Oz.

I really appreciate your efforts, it is a fine way to start my morning. Almost makes me hate weekends, almost I said. Can't really thank you enough for this, though. You are officially on the when you make it to Austin we'll do drinks and dinner list.

[UpInArms]

14. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 86.25 Change -0.15 (-0.17%)

Tomorrow's Economic Releases: US Consumer Confidence Weighs In For Growth

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/calendar/key_events/Tomorrow_s_Economic_Releases__US_Consumer_1153780214559.html

US Consumer Confidence (JUL) (14:00 GMT; 10:00 EST)

Consensus: 104.9
Previous: 105.7

Outlook: July consumer confidence is forecast to decline slightly from June's surprisingly strong reading of 105.7. Worldwide instability, rising oil prices and recent turmoil in the stock market are all expected to weigh on American’s sentiment. However, even at times of geo-political uncertainty, confidence has been high, while in apparently peaceful times the figure has dipped. The number relies almost exclusively on the national economy rather than world events. The recent drop in the July University of Michigan survey from 84.9 to 83.0 foreshadows the expected slowdown. The indicator has generally correlated with direction of the Consumer Confidence report, although the two indicators have diverged as recently as April of this year when the U of M survey declined and confidence increased. Overall, low unemployment and strong demand has stymied the expected freefall associated with $3.00 per gallon gasoline.

Previous: Following the University of Michigan survey, US Consumer Confidence rose from 104.7 to 105.7 from May to June. Although consumer demand has slackened somewhat, growth continues despite rising gas prices and strong job potential continues to buoy sentiment. Rising interest rates are expected to cool the strong 5.8% GDP growth rate in the first quarter. Second quarter growth is still expected to report a strong 3.0% increase, which should help sustain consumer confidence.


US Existing Home Sales (JUN) (14:00 GMT; 10:00 EST)

Consensus: 6.60M
Previous: 6.67M

Outlook: June existing home sales, as compiled and released by the National Association of Realtors, have been forecast to drop from 6.58 million in June to 6.60 million for the month of July. Putting off what some have speculated would be a burst in the 'housing bubble,' the market seems to be slowly deflating rather than popping outright. In January, existing home sales hit 6.57 before bouncing back to 6.90 in February. Increasing house prices have been outweighed by stronger employment and wage growth, even as gas prices weigh on disposable income. Unsold houses on the market hit the highest level since January 1998 in May, which suggests decreasing demand and steady supply, which could drive down prices and re-stimulate the market for measured pullbacks in an overall decline. Median price continues to rise, hovering near 225,000 for existing single-family homes. Existing home sales has been generally less volatile than new home sales.

Previous: Home sales, as compiled and released by the National Association of Realtors, fell in May, but at a slower pace than expected. The indicator declined 1.2% to 6.67 million, which was the weakest level since January of this year, down from 6.75 million in April. The economy is expected to slow as oil prices rise, interest rates increase, and foreign demand drops on global rate tightening. As noted above, the decline in the housing market, as with the broader economy, is expected to be gradual rather than impulsive and swift.

...more...

[54anickel]

37. China Should Increase Diversification of Reserves (Update2)

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aYxm69PTRInA&refer=home

July 25 (Bloomberg) -- China should increasingly diversify its foreign-exchange reserves to reduce the risk of losses from declines in the dollar, the country's National Bureau of Statistics said.

It should also encourage Chinese companies to invest abroad to curb expectations of a stronger yuan, the bureau today said in a statement on its Web site. U.S. dollars probably account for 70 percent to 80 percent of China's foreign reserves, said Tai Hui, an economist at Standard Chartered Bank in Hong Kong.

``The U.S. dollar may continue to weaken, increasing the risks of foreign-exchange losses in our currency reserves,'' the statement said. Speculation that the dollar will fall ``also boosts expectations that the yuan will strengthen.'' The bureau didn't provide reasons why it expects the dollar to fall.

The People's Bank of China buys dollars to prevent foreign- exchange inflows from boosting the yuan's value. That's pushed China's foreign-exchange reserves to the world's largest. The country's holdings as of June 30 jumped 32 percent from a year earlier to $941 billion.

``Diversification is a continuation of China's reserves management,'' Standard Chartered's Hui said. ``There's evidence or suggestions China has been moving gradually away from U.S. dollars into other major currencies, such as the yen or euro.''

more...

[Kolesar]

15. "Birth pangs of democracy", IIRC

I am glad somebody picked up on that outrageous comment by Rice.

[trogdor]

35. Did she REALLY say that?

Infuckingcredible.

[Demeter]

17. That Is The Grossest,, Most Disgusting Cartoon Ever

and the most appropros. We are doomed.

[54anickel]

42. Israel, Iran and the US: Who Will be Blamed for Nuclear War?

http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=viewArticle&code=20060724&articleId=2807

snip>

Iran's Interests

What is really unusual about the current flare-up in the Middle East is the barrage of strident denunciations against Iran, from the Bush administration, politicians from across the political spectrum <1>, <2>, <3>, <4>, <5>, <6>, and the mainstream media <1>, <2>, <3>, <4>, that uniformly accuse Iran (without presenting evidence) of being behind the Hezbollah actions. This has never happened before when there was conflict in Lebanon where Hezbollah was involved, why now?


One argument is Ahmadinejad's stated animosity against Israel. However, that has been Iran's stated position since 1979.


The other argument is that Iran is trying to "divert attention" from the nuclear issue. That defies the most elementary logic. If Iran was really intent in getting nuclear weapons and destroying Israel, it would try to keep things as quiet as possible until it gets those nuclear weapons, several years into the future.

The reality is that, whether one ascribes to Iran evil or benign intentions, Iran draws no benefit whatsoever from the current turmoil in Lebanon. Neither does Syria. Consequently the rhetoric from the US and Israel suggests a deliberate attempt to draw Syria and Iran into the conflict.

US Interests

A US attack on Iran has been predicted by analysts for several years. The US policy vis-a-vis Iran is clearly directed towards confrontation rather than accommodation. There are many reasons for the US to attack Iran, including the control of energy resources, suppression of a regional power opposite to US and Israeli interests, etc. However I have argued for many months that the key reason for the US to seek a military confrontation with Iran is that it will "force" the US to cross the nuclear threshold and use low yield nuclear weapons against Iranian installations. And this is seen as essential to further US geopolitical goals.


The United States used nuclear weapons against Japan not because it had to. It did so to demonstrate to the world that it was in possession of a new weapon that packed the destructive power of thousands of bombing missions into a single one. To tell the rest of the world, beware.


Since then, it has spent over 5 trillion dollars in building up its nuclear arsenal, but nuclear weapons have become "unusable" after 60 years of non-use. America has achieved nuclear primacy but it is useless, until it shows that nuclear weapons are usable again.

more....

[Ghost Dog]

55. Some Asia-perspective (but quite PNACer) background/speculation:

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Front_Page/HG26Aa01.html
PART 2
China and India in World War III
By Chan Akya

I wrote in Part 1 (World War III - what, me worry?, July 25) on the subject of how China and India would fail to react in the event that the West and Islam proceed toward a full conflagration, even if such a conflict would be a heaven-sent opportunity for both powers to fully realize their own strategic objectives. While current events dictate an eventual conflict, a number of factors will have to fall in place before World War III does break out. The roles for North Korea, Taiwan and Pakistan are falling into place in this conflict, and it is using these cards that the West and Islam can play the two ancient civilizations.

I predict that future generations of Indians and Chinese will literally worship George W Bush and Osama bin Laden for having pushed the West into a disastrous conflict with Islam. An escalation of terrorist attacks against Christian and Jewish powers has already caused the moral compass to tilt against Islam. It appears only a matter of time before either the United States or Israel uses weapons of mass destruction against an Islamic power, albeit for preemptive rather than offensive purposes.

That Iranian nuclear establishments will be bombed in the next few months is by now a foregone conclusion. If the US decides to use conventional but lethal force, rather than risk allowing Israeli bombing of Iranian facilities, the moral compass shifts back in favor of Islam.

President Bush has failed to finish the job with bin Laden, leaving the mess for someone else to handle - eerily echoing the same failure of his father to depose Saddam Hussein, which necessitated his current misadventure in Iraq.

Assuming that the US does attack Iranian facilities, how does the progress to an all-out war between Islam and the West take place?

We have to recognize that no established Islamic power has the ability to strike outside of its immediate border. The armed forces of Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Syria and Iran have no capacity to inflict meaningful harm on the West. The sole exception is Pakistan, which is why the global terrorist brotherhood will probably focus more of its attention on this country than any other in the next few months.

The key strategic aim here would be to secure a working nuclear weapon. Sensing an opportunity to unite against greater enemies, we have seen in July cooperation not only between Hamas and Hezbollah, but also potentially with bin Laden, if the recent train bomb attacks that killed almost 200 in India were orchestrated by al-Qaeda as is being claimed.

It appears more than a coincidence that both Israel and India were attacked at the same time - I expect that moves to drag Pakistan into outright war against the West are already under way.

/...

[UpInArms]

18. Treasurys flat in early going; data ahead

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B73063BDA%2D2954%2D4410%2D97A2%2D6451FB364B72%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - Treasury prices were flat in the early going Monday, in a continuation of the tepid market action seen the day before. The benchmark 10-year Treasury note last was unchanged at 100-19/32 with a yield ($TNX : 5.049, +0.05, +0.1% ) of 5.05%, nearly unchanged from Monday's close. Price action could become more vigorous later in the morning when the existing home sales report for June and the July consumer confidence reports will be released. MarketWatch, based on a survey of economists, is forecasting 6.58 million home sales for last month, which would be a decrease from 6.67 million in May, in line with the general view that the housing sector is slowing. The headline consumer confidence reading for this month is expected to decline to 103.9 from 105.7 in June.

[UpInArms]

27. Printing Press Hums:Fed adds $7.0 bln in reserves via overnight system RPs

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-07-25T135443Z_01_N25355939_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-FED-OPERATIONS.XML


Fed funds last traded at 5.25 percent, the Fed's target for the benchmark overnight lending rate.

For further details on the operation, see http://www.ny.frb.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm

[Roland99]

30. But they're on track to lower the fiscal deficit by 1/2 in 18 mos.

:eyes:


That's $15 billion *this week*

[UpInArms]

31. US Treasuries flat, brace for US data and auction

http://today.reuters.com/misc/PrinterFriendlyPopup.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-07-25T134703Z_01_N25445181_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-BONDS-UPDATE-1.XML

NEW YORK, July 25 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury debt prices were flat on Tuesday as traders braced for an influx of supply from a bond auction and fresh economic data that could provide further clues on consumers' mood and the housing market.

As the bond market's focus shifted to U.S. housing and consumer confidence reports due at 10 a.m. (1400 GMT), a flight-to-safety bid, on fears that the Middle East conflict would escalate, faded at least temporarily.

"If both numbers were to drop sharply that could provide concrete evidence the economy is slowing down," and support Treasuries prices, said Michael Cheah, vice president and portfolio manager with AIG SunAmerica Asset Management in Jersey City, New Jersey.

Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah said Israel's military strikes against Lebanon and the Palestinians could ignite a war in the region, state media said. Treasuries and other safe-haven assets including the Swiss franc gained on the report.

"That is tough language," said George Goncalves, treasury and agency trading strategist with Banc of America Securities in New York. "We can't discount geopolitical risk and the natural flight-to-quality type bid that Treasuries receive from it," Goncalves added.

...more...

[UpInArms]

32. Treasuries slip as confident consumers buy homes (huh?)

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-07-25T140808Z_01_NYG000293_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-BONDS-UPDATE-2-URGENT.XML

NEW YORK, July 25 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury debt prices turned lower on Tuesday after both housing and consumer confidence data exhibited unexpected strength.

While hardly conclusive, the figures suggested the Federal Reserve might choose to continue raising interest rates, to ensure inflation does not take hold in the economy.

Benchmark 10-year notes <US10YT=RR> slipped 3/32 for a yield of 5.06 percent, up from 5.05 percent on Monday. Treasuries have gotten a boost in recent weeks from uncertainty surrounding the two-week-long war between Israel and Lebanese militants.

[54anickel]

41. WRAPUP 1-US consumer confidence, home sales beat forecasts

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-07-25T155506Z_01_N25166243_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-WRAPUP-1.XML

NEW YORK, July 25 (Reuters) - U.S. consumer confidence rose unexpectedly in July and existing homes sales fell less than forecast in June, reports showed on Tuesday, boosting market expectations for an August rate hike by the Federal Reserve.

U.S. bond and stock prices fell after the release of the two reports on the increased rate expectations, while the dollar rose.

"Both numbers are stronger-than-expected -- and confidence does matter, and it increases the odds of an increase by the Fed," said Robert Macintosh, chief economist at Eaton Vance Management in Boston.

snip>

The National Association of Realtors said that sales of existing homes fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.62 million units in June from an upwardly revised rate of 6.71 million units in May.

Analysts had expected home resales to slow even further to a 6.58 million unit rate from May's originally reported 6.67 million unit pace.

So while it was bad, it wasn't as bad as expected which now makes it a good thing. Telling ya, we're on a wing and a prayer these days. :eyes:

more...

[UpInArms]

19. Disney to buy Indian children's TV channel

http://today.reuters.com/news/newsarticle.aspx?type=businessNews&storyid=2006-07-25T103946Z_01_L25476679_RTRUKOC_0_US-MEDIA-INDIA-UTV-1.xml&src=rss

LONDON/MUMBAI (Reuters) - Walt Disney Co. has agreed to buy Hungama, an Indian children's cable and satellite TV channel that broadcasts in Hindi, for $30.5 million as it tries to keep pace with rivals in the fast-growing market.

As part of the deal, Disney (DIS.N: Quote, Profile, Research) said on Tuesday it would pay an additional $14 million for a 14.9 percent stake in UTV Software Communications Ltd. (UTVS.BO: Quote, Profile, Research), the diversified Indian media group that owns film and television assets, including Hungama via its United Home Entertainment unit.

"Television is and will continue to be the major growth engine in building franchise affinity in India," said Rich Ross, president of the Disney Channel Worldwide.

Disney, based in Burbank, California, already operates a Disney Channel and Toon Disney/Jetix in India, which reach 30 million homes on cable and satellite. Disney program blocks reach a wider audience on a terrestrial network.

Launched in September 2004, Hungama targets children aged 4 to 14 and programming includes such characters as Fireman Sam, the impish penguin Pororo and talking airplane Jay Jay.

...more...

[UpInArms]

20. pre-opening blather

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -0.8. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +2.5. Aside from a mixed batch of key earnings reports, crude oil prices back above $75 per barrel on geopolitical concerns and a forecast from T. Boone Pickens that oil will go to $100 within the next year are acting as a bit of restraining influence this morning. To wit, both the S&P and Nasdaq futures are at pre-market lows and now signal a lackluster open. Despite a better underlying tone, as operating earnings for the S&P in aggregate are now on track to grow a better than expected 13-14%, the specter of today's economic data (10:00 ET) -- Existing Home Sales and Consumer Confidence -- are also acting as an overhang.

08:30 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +0.3. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +5.2. Mixed reports from five of the Dow 30 and a handful of other blue chips, like UPS recently missing expectations and issuing downside Q3 guidance, are still not giving a clear indication as to whether yesterday's rally will carry over into today's open for the S&P 500. However, Texas Instruments growing Q2 profits 27% year/year and providing evidence that chip demand remains solid continues to provide a floor of early support for the tech-heavy Nasdaq, especially the underperforming semiconductor space.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +0.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +5.5. Futures versus fair value are signaling a relatively mixed start for stocks as investors sift through a spate of earnings reports and await economic data. Of the five Dow components reporting today and so far lending little follow-through conviction for blue chips, 3M (MMM) missed and offered cautious guidance, DuPont (DD) beat and reaffirmed its 2006 outlook, Altria Group (MO) beat and upped its FY06 forecasts, AT&T (T) beat and McDonald's (MCD) matched upwardly revised expectations. Nasdaq 100 futures, however, are getting a boost after SanDisk (SNDK) reported a 37% year/year rise in Q2 profits while a reassuring earnings report from Texas Instruments (TXN) is helping to ease growth concerns throughout the tech sector.

[54anickel]

22. Heh-heh, love the way the put that

Aside from a mixed batch of key earnings reports, crude oil prices back above $75 per barrel on geopolitical concerns and a forecast from T. Boone Pickens that oil will go to $100 within the next year are acting as a bit of restraining influence this morning.

But not to worry, war must be good for the economy (or at least the stock market) because

operating earnings for the S&P in aggregate are now on track to grow a better than expected 13-14%

as long as we can ignore Existing Home Sales and Consumer Confidence and a mixed bag of earnings reports.

[Roland99]

29. We're all going to have so many ponies we won't know what to do!

[UpInArms]

21. 9:41 EST profit taking in progress

Dow 11,027.51 -23.54 (-0.21%)
Nasdaq 2,056.93 -4.91 (-0.24%)
S&P 500 1,258.72 -2.19 (-0.17%)
10-Yr Bond 5.044 0.00 (0.00%)

NYSE Volume 123,997,000
Nasdaq Volume 126,346,000

[UpInArms]

28. 10:09 EST Heading STRAIGHT UP Now

Dow 11,078.58 +27.53 (+0.25%)
Nasdaq 2,078.91 +17.08 (+0.83%)
S&P 500 1,266.60 +5.69 (+0.45%)
10-Yr Bond 5.044 0.00 (0.00%)

NYSE Volume 386,975,000
Nasdaq Volume 324,218,000

[54anickel]

33. 10:45 and now straight back down

Dow 11,026.15 -24.90 (-0.23%)
Nasdaq 2,059.98 -1.85 (-0.09%)
S&P 500 1,259.87 -1.04 (-0.08%)
10-yr Bond 5.044 0.00 (0.00%)
30-yr Bond 5.103 0.00 (0.00%)
NYSE Volume 685,360,000
Nasdaq Volume 552,066,000

10:30 am : Indices turn the corner and are now modestly extending yesterday's buying efforts following an unexpected rise to 106.5 (consensus 104.0) in the July Consumer Confidence index. Even though the data do not correlate well with consumer spending, investors so far are embracing anything positive to at least preserve the broader market's latest efforts to get back into the green for the year. Separately, sales of existing homes falling 1.3% in June to 6.62 mln units, leaving inventories at their highest levels since July 1997, have also contributed to the recent turnaround since the data support Fed Chairman Bernanke's recently dovish testimony about the increase in mortgage rates reducing affordability and thus the demand for housing.DJ30 +3.12 NASDAQ +9.21 SP500 +2.99 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 842/1804/458 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 799/2021/340 mln

10:00 am : Major averages are still hovering right around the flat line as split industry leadership continues to dictate early action. Stalling follow-through momentum among blue chips is a 1.5% decline in Industrials, fueled primarily by a 12% drubbing in UPS, 3M hitting a 52-week low, and further deterioration in Railroads, despite a strong Q2 report from Burlington Northern Santa Fe (BNI 64.70 -5.10). Energy, though, is tacking a 1.0% gain onto its 13.7% year-to-date advance following an 86% surge in Q4 profits at BJ Services (BJS 33.05 +1.99) and Nabors Industries (NBR 32.26 +1.61) handily beating analysts' forecasts on 77% year/year EPS growth.DJ30 -16.55 DJTA -3.2% NASDAQ +2.56 SP500 -0.12 XOI +1.1% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1396/1018/238 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1445/1133/166 mln

[Roland99]

38. Good thing I bought some Bonine for my upcoming trip!

[54anickel]

40. But what about the ponies? I want my pony - damn it!!! n/t

[Roland99]

47. Oh, here ya go...

http://www.swep.org.uk.nyud.net:8090/images/dead%20A.jpg


Sorry to the small children reading SMW. ;)

[54anickel]

50. New meaning to the phrase one trick pony! n/t

[UpInArms]

34. Hedge funds won't go unregulated: SEC's Cox

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?dist=newsfinder&siteid=mktw&guid=%7B7520955F%2D5516%2D422C%2DBBA1%2DA92CA5378500%7D&symbol=

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Securities regulators are continuing to eye possible ways to tighten regulations on hedge funds in the wake of a U.S. court decision striking down a rule requiring the funds' advisers to register with the government, the chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission said Tuesday.

"Hedge funds are not, should not be, and will not be unregulated," SEC Chairman Christopher Cox said in testimony prepared for a Senate Banking Committee hearing.

Cox said he's directing SEC staff to restore some rules that were invalidated by last month's court decision. They include a time extension given to advisers for funds of hedge funds to turn in audited financial statements, and an exemption from a recordkeeping requirement for performance data.

Cox said the potential for retail investors to be harmed by hedge fund risk is as great as it was in December 2004, when the agency adopted its rule requiring advisers to register.

Currently there are no Senate bills designed to tighten rules on hedge funds. On the House side, Rep. Barney Frank, D-Mass., has introduced a bill that would give the SEC authority to require registration and monitoring of the funds.

<snip>

Hedge funds control a growing amount of assets currently estimated at $1.5 trillion, a figure that has caught the attention of lawmakers and regulators.

...more...

[54anickel]

43. Treasury to meet hedge funds to gauge exposure

http://msnbc.msn.com/id/14016211/

The US Treasury is to convene its first formal meetings with hedge funds and investment banks in coming months in a sign that it wants to learn more about the possible risks of lenders' exposure to the industry.

The move is a sign of a belief at Treasury that efforts to understand the impact of hedge funds on the economy should focus on assessing counterparty risks. Much of the focus of US lawmakers in recent months has been on how to regulate the industry.

Last month the Securities and Exchange Commission was dealt a setback to its efforts to oversee hedge funds when a US court overturned a rule that had required fund advisers to register with SEC.

Emil Henry, Treasury's assistant secretary for financial institutions, said his department held meetings two weeks ago with officials at the SEC and other regulators to lay the groundwork for up to four meetings with the private sector between now and the end of the year.

He told the Financial Times: "We'd like to understand in this process how much information is coming through counterparties, how diligent are the counterparties being and how clear or opaque is the information that's coming up indirectly through the counterparties."

more...

[54anickel]

44. 2 business groups call for halt in forecasts on quarterly earnings

http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/business/articles/0725biz-talker0725.html

Two influential groups are calling on companies to stop issuing quarterly-earnings forecasts as part of a series of reforms they say will help stifle the nation's "obsession" with short-term financial results.

The report was released Monday by a unit of the CFA Institute, an organization for investment professionals, together with a unit of the Business Roundtable, a group of 160 chief executives. It follows discussions about "short-termism" that included the participation of companies, asset managers, analysts, shareholders and regulators.

The report concludes that an emphasis on quarterly earnings creates a system in which companies sacrifice long-term growth for short-term gains. Meanwhile, executives are often provided financial incentives for meeting short-term numbers, and that further supports the system.

[Roland99]

48. Hmm...seems good on the surface...

[54anickel]

46. 1:03 numbers and yada

Dow 11,031.51 -19.54 (-0.18%)
Nasdaq 2,062.51 +0.67 (+0.03%)
S&P 500 1,260.62 -0.29 (-0.02%)
10-yr Bond 5.063 +0.019 (+0.38%)
30-yr Bond 5.123 +0.02 (+0.39%)
NYSE Volume 1,359,656,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,033,294,000

1:00 pm : Indices now trade in split fashion, as a modest turnaround in tech helps the Nasdaq inch above the flat line. However, the rebound has not nearly been enough to make a significant change in the standings as the tech-heavy Composite would need to breach initial resistance of 2070 amid stronger than average volume to lend any conviction behind follow-through efforts which have so far failed each of the last three times the Nasdaq was coming off an impressive day of gains. DJ30 -14.41 NASDAQ +1.74 SP500 +0.24 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1316/1565/1.01 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1344/1773/844 mln

12:30 pm : Buyers show some signs of life as the continued sell-off in oil prices adds a sense of comfort. Crude oil futures are now down 1.4% and close to slipping through $74 per barrel amid speculation Israeli soldiers have been released. More notably, the Energy sector's (+0.9%) resilience in the face of falling oil, as it hasn't sacrificed much in the way of leadership, is providing a floor of support since the sector's earnings potential was confirmed following strong reports from NBR (+5.5%). BJS (+5.6%), and GRP (+5.5%). The latter two are suggested holdings in the Briefing.com Active Portfolio. DJ30 -19.78 NASDAQ -0.62 SP500 -0.80 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1459/1396/944 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1540/1545/764 mln

12:00 pm : Market is still struggling to regain follow-through momentum midday as mixed earnings reports question the sustainability of Monday's relief rally. As the biggest single day of earnings so far this quarter, reports from five Dow components this morning have been closely scrutinized.

On a positive note, the biggest of the bunch -- Altria Group (MO 79.53 +0.04) beat expectations and upped its full-year forecasts and is flirting with a new all-time high. However, 3M Co. (MMM 68.00 -3.69) reporting Q2 earnings that still checked in shy of downwardly revised estimates and management offering cautious guidance is preventing the price-weighted index from adding to its outperformance among the majors.

Meanwhile, AT&T (T 28.71 +0.93) is surging 3.5% to a 52-week high after posting 81% year/year profit growth and saying its ahead of schedule with its merger integration plan, which plays into our Overweight rating on Telecom Services; but as one of the least influential S&P sectors, its 1.3% surge has done little to offset the market's underlying sense of reserve.

McDonald's (MCD 35.01 +0.17), a suggested holding in our Active Portfolio, matched upwardly revised expectations and expects to return at least $5-6 bln to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases; but it too has done little for its respective sector -- Consumer Discretionary. DuPont (DD 40.07 -0.50), the last of the Dow components, beat forecasts but merely reaffirmed its 2006 outlook and is trading lower as a result. Acting as the biggest impediment to extending Monday's rally has been consolidation across Industrials which has pushed the influential sector into the red for 2006.

Aside from 3M's disappointing report, United Parcel Service (UPS 68.46 -11.54) having its worst day since going public (-14%) is acting as the biggest drag on overall sentiment and nearly taking the entire Dow Jones Transportation Average down with it. To wit, Burlington Northern Santa Fe (BNI 66.51 -3.29) posted a stronger than expected 28% rise in Q2 profits, but UPS CFO saying he sees "a lot of signs" the U.S. economy is slowing has renewed the same worries that weighed heavily on railroad stocks last week despite strong reports from competitors UNP (-2.8%) and CSX (-2.9%). Not even Technology has been able to fully embrace a Q2 report last night from Texas Instruments (TXN 28.95 +1.11) that assured investors chip demand remains solid. DJ30 -39.39 DJTA -3.5% NASDAQ -4.02 SP500 -3.38 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1400/1406/850 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1492/1571/684 mln


Gotta run for the day. Will try to check back later. Enjoy the ride!!! :hi:

[54anickel]

49. Tech Bear Smells Fear

http://www.thestreet.com/markets/marketfeatures/10298650.html

With Monday's 41-point run-up in the Nasdaq reminiscent of the 37-point bounce last Wednesday that was eliminated -- and then some -- by week's end, there's no way around it: We are officially sliding back into a tech bear market.

By "officially," I mean that old rule of thumb that says when stocks in a market or market sector drop more than 20%, it stops being a correction and starts being a bear market.

Many of the most closely watched stock indices have moved close to losing a fifth of their value -- if they haven't done so already -- from the high points they reached since the last bear market a few years ago. Some have already lost more than that.

snip>

Some investors regard such bearish numbers as contrarian signs to buy -- and Monday's session suggests that they're probably right. But for how long? The real test will come after the inevitable bounce in tech shares, whether yesterday's session was the start of it or not. If investors begin to see reasons their businesses will improve in 2007 or 2008, then this may prove to be nothing more than a severe summer correction.

The thing is, it's hard to imagine right now what those reasons might be. Most tech companies are living off the revenue of innovations they came up with years ago. In fact, the high-tech industry -- from hardware to telecom to the Internet -- is starting to act like the drug industry: happy to revise their greatest hits instead of striking out in new directions.

In the tech world, growth is driven primarily by innovation. And innovation comes from boldness and risk. Wall Street seems to be afraid that Silicon Valley has lost its mojo. That may well prove to be an overreaction. But if not, we're in for another long winter in the bear den.

more...

[54anickel]

51. International Debt Crisis

http://www.prudentbear.com/archive_comm_article.asp?category=Guest+Commentary&content_idx=56585

There is some dispute as to what exactly set off the tremendous expansion of debt to developing countries in the 1970s. A rather typical explanation runs something like this: A retaliatory price hike by the major oil exporting countries was touched off by the Yom Kippur War of 1973. Almost overnight the price of a barrel of oil increased fourfold. Since demand is relatively inelastic, this translated into a massive windfall for those nations. However there were real limits to the extent to which this money could be effectively invested. Many of the OPEC countries were Islamic, and sharia law forbade earning interest in their own banks. As they sought more lucrative investments, they turned increasingly to Western banks to absorb the petrodollar windfall. Dollars flowing out of the industrialized countries in payment of costly oil shortly came flowing back in the form of credit.

The banks of the industrialized nations were obviously pleased to be the recipients of this windfall, but it did present them with a challenge. The same oil hikes which had served the OPEC countries so well had caused (or at least exacerbated) an economic contraction in the major western coun­tries, and it was difficult to find sufficient commercial and industrial interest in taking new loans.

In order to put these petrodollars to use, many of the restrictions and requirements on lending were over­looked. It became a true “buyers market” for loans among the poorer nations. As one finance minister de­scribed it: “I remember how the bankers tried to cor­ner me at conferences to offer me loans. They would not leave me alone.” And it could be difficult to resist. After all, money borrowed today can be used to con­tinue supporting popular social programs or lining the coffers of political supporters, putting off for tomor­row the belt- tightening which is necessary to keep a balanced budget. In a pattern which has been around about as long as governments have existed, leaders become sorely tempted to trade future economic health for popularity in the here and now. As the cited finance minister put it: “If you’re trying to balance your budget it’s very tempting to borrow money instead of raising taxes to put off the agony.” (Hertz, p.61)

This all sounds quite plausible, however in his book Manias, Panics and Crashes, historian Charles Kindleberger points out that the rush to loan to developing nations had already begun several years before the outbreak of the Yom Kippur war. In his view it was largely due to a “serious mistake in monetary policy” that had caused the sudden rush to provide loans to the developing world. The error was “cheap money initiated in the United States to help with Nixon’s presidential reelection campaign” at the same time “the Deutsche Bundesbank was tightening money to curb inflation.” (Kindleberger, p. 21)

This, too, is probably somewhat simplistic. Though I wouldn’t deny the im­portance of monetary factors, I seldom think they are uniquely causative. More valuable than this particular explanation, I believe, is his general thesis that manias are normal, relatively predictable phenomena which are an integral part of economic history. I believe the rush to advance loans to developing nations in the 1970s fits the model quite well.

more...

[54anickel]

54. 3:07 final hour pump

Dow 11,083.14 +32.09 (+0.29%)
Nasdaq 2,069.82 +7.98 (+0.39%)
S&P 500 1,266.61 +5.70 (+0.45%)
10-yr Bond 5.065 +0.021 (+0.42%)
30-yr Bond 5.125 +0.022 (+0.43%)
NYSE Volume 1,991,170,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,495,167,000

3:00 pm : Market breaks out of its trading range within the last 15 minutes, pushing all three major averages into the plus column. Acting as the impetus behind the change in sentiment has been an analyst upgrade on the very company -- United Parcel Service (UPS 70.82 -9.18) -- largely responsible for sidelining buyers following yesterday's rally. Even though the stock is still trading below its best levels of the day, positive analyst commentary, especially after Merrill Lynch downgraded UPS this morning to a Sell, has restored some reprieve since large-cap transportation stocks can provide a sense of how the market feels about economic prospects. DJ30 +7.04 DJTA -2.8% NASDAQ +3.59 SP500 +2.59 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1479/1488/1.45 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1504/1684/1.22 bln

2:30 pm : Range-bound trading persists as buyers continue to veer on the side of caution. To wit, the PHLX Semiconductor Sector Index, which was up as much as 2.0% in early trading has slowly relinquished all of its gains and is now in negative territory. A reassuring Q2 report from Texas Instruments (TXN 28.68 +0.84) was serving as a proxy for tech investors concerned about tech's growth prospects, but buyers may now being showing a sense of reserve ahead of reports from XLNX (-3.7%) and LLTC (-0.4%) after the bell tonight. DJ30 -25.38 NASDAQ -4.04 SOX -0.1% SP500 -1.17 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1525/1416/1.32 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1591/1605/1.11 bln

2:00 pm : The major averages continue to settle into a narrow range as investors find few catalysts to push the indices more aggressively in either direction. Oil prices, though, are now down 1.7% and below $74 per barrel as conflict between Israel and Lebanon appears contained; but some consolidation in oil stocks, as evidenced by Explorers and Oil & Gas Equipment dropping out of today's top ten performing S&P industry stocks is offsetting some of the relief provided by the decline in crude.DJ30 -18.79 NASDAQ -1.60 SP500 -0.38 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1416/1493/1.21 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1412/1768/1.01 bln

1:30 pm : Not much has changed since the last update as there still isn't a strong sense of conviction on either the bullish or bearish side of the aisle. The market's holding pattern has been further evidenced in the A/D line, as advancers on the NYSE hold a slim 17 to 13 advantage over decliners while both advancing and declining issues on the Nasdaq remain evenly matched. A split ratio of down to up volume similarly reflects the mixed picture at the Big Board and the Composite.DJ30 -14.17 NASDAQ +1.02 SP500 +0.33 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1404/1498/1.11 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1391/1740/918 mln

1:00 pm : Indices now trade in split fashion, as a modest turnaround in tech helps the Nasdaq inch above the flat line. However, the rebound has not nearly been enough to make a significant change in the standings as the tech-heavy Composite would need to breach initial resistance of 2070 amid stronger than average volume to lend any conviction behind follow-through efforts which have so far failed each of the last three times the Nasdaq was coming off an impressive day of gains. DJ30 -14.41 NASDAQ +1.74 SP500 +0.24 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1316/1565/1.01 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1344/1773/844 mln

[UpInArms]

57. 3:22 EST bulls(h*t) running the show

Dow 11,103.95 +52.90 (+0.48%)
Nasdaq 2,074.63 +12.79 (+0.62%)
S&P 500 1,269.38 +8.47 (+0.67%)
10-Yr Bond 5.065 +0.021 (+0.42%)

NYSE Volume 2,115,899,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,579,276,000

[specimenfred1984]

56. S&P at Daily Downtrend Line

We'll see if the frauds keep pumping here or not. It could be the Fed and its' allies pumping before the Beige Book tomorrow.

If they do, the S&P could go to 1285 to 1300. It won't be any real "investors" buying this crock-o-sht based on terrorism, debt, outsourcing, stagnant wages, corruption and propaganda.

[stop the bleeding]

58. well that was fun

bought a Call play on a Gas/Energy stock today, did ok not enough for ponies but enough for drinks :toast:

I have been maintaining a bearish outlook for the summer upto/including August so going long today was a little riskier than I like.

When I was charting last night I was coming across several stocks who have retested supports/lows, made consolidations and even a few were breaking out above their MA's including the 50 and 200. It may still be too early, but I may need to start considering playing Calls a little more often and the Puts a little less. Time will tell :)

[specimenfred1984]

59. Try Selling Some Options

if you've got the money to cover the margin requirements. Most options expire worthless, meaning the selling gets to keep the money. It can be an expensive, zero-sum trade though, if the option moves against the seller and the seller has to cover losses by buying another option or going long/short the underlying security or futures contract.

It takes a bundle of money and a lot of time but it can be lucrative.

[stop the bleeding]

60. All I do is trade

Options, better leverage until I learn to Forex trade. I don't mess with buying and selling stocks - waste of money- I can get the same price movement from the stock/option all the while hitting each strike price for the same cost(s) as the stock keeps moving one way or the other. Oh yeah when I play these I always keep enough time on the option so it won't degrade against me-right now I am playing August ones.

Today was a Call day - meaning I bought 15 contracts worth of Calls on a stock this morning and then traded it back this afternoon once the option had moved enough for me to clear a 10% profit on what I risked. Some of the other marketeers will tell you that over the summer I have been mostly buying and then selling back Puts on housing stocks as they were tanking in the last few months. So they will be happy to see me go long today.

My favorite play is selling the Naked Puts which done correctly will expire worthless and me the seller will keep the $$$ :evilgrin: but I only like em when I can get a 7%++ return on the 20% of the underwriting of the stock. These have not been popping up lately and plus I like to let them go when we are closer to expiration.

Happy trading ;)

[joeglow3]

61. It was a good day for me

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/060725/20060725005771.html?.v=1

[stop the bleeding]

62. Welcome to DU and the SMW thread

WIRE - isn't that in the top 100 in the IBD?

I watch this one all of the time - congrats :):toast:

now you can buy all of us some new ponies - peace and take care

[joeglow3]

63. I believe it is

My grandfather was good friends with Rego (the guy who started it) and bought in before it went public. Needless to say, it has treated our family well. However, with the rise in copper prices, it has blown up the last year.

[UpInArms]

64. coming back to close up the shop

Dow 11,103.71 +52.66 (+0.48%)
Nasdaq 2,073.90 +12.06 (+0.58%)
S&P 500 1,268.88 +7.97 (+0.63%)
10-Yr Bond 5.065 +0.021 (+0.42%)

NYSE Volume 2,559,653,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,968,843,000

What was looking like a typically lackluster session following a huge run-up in stocks a day earlier actually got the follow-through buying the bulls were hoping for.

Mixed earnings and economic data, as well as higher oil prices, were stalling Monday's momentum throughout most of the day. That is, until oil prices reversed course going into the close on the NYMEX, finishing at session lows, and an analyst upgrade on the very company -- United Parcel Service (UPS 71.79 -8.21) -- that was largely responsible for temporarily sidelining buyers provided a sufficient duo of positive news to get buying efforts back on track.

Even though UPS is not one of the five Dow components whose earnings came under scrutiny Tuesday, the blue chip transport's ability to provide a sense of how the market feels about economic prospects was a thorn in the market's side. To wit, UPS missed analysts' expectations for the first time in four years, saying they see "a lot of signs" the U.S. economy is slowing and blaming "unexpectedly higher fuel costs" for its earnings shortfall that led to a downward revision to full-year earnings growth.

An analyst upgrade on UPS, though, late in the day trumped a Merrill Lynch downgrade earlier and helped feed a late-day surge of buying interest across the broader market. Additionally, a 1.7% drop in oil prices that sent the futures contract below $74 per barrel facilitated the afternoon recovery try. Crude oil futures finished at $73.75 per barrel (-$1.30) as traders reevaluated the conflict between Israel and Lebanon, believing it will not carry over into the rest of the Middle East and disrupt oil shipments.

It is worth noting that the Energy sector shrugged off oil's pullback in favor of better than expected earnings. Nabors Industries (NBR 32.45 +1.80) handily beat analysts' forecasts on 77% year/year EPS growth, BJ Services (BJS 33.06 +2.00) posted an 86% surge in Q4 profits and Grant Prideco (GRP 42.76 +3.15) boosted its full-year forecasts after Q2 earnings quadrupled. The latter two are suggested holdings in Briefing.com's Active Portfolio.

With regard to the five Dow components posting results on the biggest single day of earnings so far this quarter, AT&T (T 29.16 +1.38) was the standout from a performance perspective, surging 5% to a 52-week high after posting 81% year/year profit growth and saying it's ahead of schedule with its merger integration plan. That played into our Overweight rating on Telecom Services. McDonald's (MCD 35.01 +0.17), another suggested holding in our Active Portfolio, posted a 56% surge in Q2 profits, matching upwardly revised expectations and saying it expects to return at least $5-6 bln to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases.

Two other blue chips topping estimates were Altria Group (MO 79.53 +0.04), which closed at a new all-time high after raising its full-year EPS forecasts, and DuPont (DD 40.64 +0.07), which was off as much 1.8% after merely reaffirming its 2006 outlook but closed slightly higher. 3M Co. (MMM 68.00 -3.69) reporting Q2 earnings that still checked in shy of downwardly revised estimates, and management offering cautious guidance, was the other Industrials component, aside from UPS, turning in its worst performance since going public. The combined effect of the disappointments from 3M and UPS left the industrials sector as the only losing sector on Tuesday. Separately, only 3 of the 30 Dow components failed to participate in today's turnaround.

Another reassuring earnings report came from Texas Instruments (TXN 28.93 +1.09), which last night assured investors worried about tech's growth prospects that chip demand remains solid. BTK +1.8% DJ30 +52.66 DJTA -1.8% DJUA +0.4% DOT +0.2% NASDAQ +12.05 NQ100 +0.5% R2K +1.0% SOX +1.1% SP400 +1.2% SP500 +7.97 XOI +0.9% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1195/1819/1.9 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1061/2201/1.7 bln