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Mexico 2006: López Obrador 35.4%, Calderón 30.5%

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Judi Lynn Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-25-06 03:23 AM
Original message
Mexico 2006: López Obrador 35.4%, Calderón 30.5%
Mexico 2006: López Obrador 35.4%, Calderón 30.5%
June 25, 2006

(Angus Reid Global Scan) – Democratic Revolution Party (PRD) candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador could win next Sunday’s presidential election in Mexico, according to a poll by Milenio. 35.4 per cent of respondents would vote for the former Mexico City mayor.

Former energy minister Felipe Calderón of the governing National Action Party (PAN) is second with 30.5 per cent, followed by former Tabasco governor Roberto Madrazo of the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) with 29.6 per cent, Patricia Mercado of the Social-Democratic and Peasant Alternative Party (PASC) with 4.1 per cent, and Roberto Campa of the New Alliance Party (PNA) with 0.5 per cent.

Support for López Obrador increased by 1.2 points since mid-June, while backing for Calderón dropped by half a point.
(snip)

On Jun. 23, López Obrador pledged to keep the economy in order, saying, "We are going to have money because we are going to govern with honesty, because there will be no luxury for the government, and because we will put an end to all privileges."
(snip/...)

http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/index.cfm/fuseaction/viewItem/itemID/12338
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Selatius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-25-06 03:38 AM
Response to Original message
1. If nothing bad happens, we'll have a solid leftist in Mexico
Hopefully, he will be far better in fighting poverty in Mexico than Fox ever was and fight the wrongs created by NAFTA. Personally, If I was Obrador, I'd withdraw from NAFTA and renegotiate a trade policy with the US.
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Judi Lynn Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-25-06 03:56 AM
Response to Reply #1
2. He dislikes NAFTA altogether, and has spoken against it already.
Here's one article dealing with NAFTA:
Mexico Hopeful Takes Hard Line Vs. NAFTA
PDF | Email
By MARK STEVENSON, The Associated Press
Jun 17, 2006 9:20 PM (7 days ago)

TUXTLA GUTIERREZ, Mexico - Leftist presidential candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador said for the first time Saturday he would not honor Mexico's commitment under NAFTA to eliminate tariffs on U.S. corn and beans if he is elected.


Tariffs on all agricultural products must be removed in 2008 under the North American Free Trade Agreement. But Lopez Obrador said he opposed eliminating tariffs on U.S. white corn and beans, showing no allegiance to a deal he sees as harmful to Mexican farmers.

"We are not going to accept this clause that they signed," Lopez Obrador told supporters in Chiapas, an extremely poor farming state.
(snip)

Mexicans worry that if these farmers can't sell the nation's signature crops at a price that competes with trucked-in produce from the United States, they will go out of business altogether.

That could severely damage Mexico's agricultural economy, which farmers say has already suffered since the trade deal went into effect in 1994, forcing many to migrate to the United States.

Mexico's agriculture minister pleaded with Canada and the United States this month to reconsider the removal of the corn and bean tariffs, but U.S. Undersecretary for Agriculture J.B. Penn flatly rejected the appeal, saying "we have no interest in renegotiating any parts of the agreement."
(snip/...)

http://www.examiner.com/a-153030~Mexico_Hopeful_Takes_Hard_Line_Vs__NAFTA.html



Bush's Undersecretary of Agriculture, J.B. Penn, and Johnathan Winters
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1932 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-25-06 07:08 AM
Response to Reply #2
6. You can't build fences high enough when these neoliberal trade bills
create such extreme polarizations of wealth and opportunity.

I think there shouldn't be borders, but, really, we can't have a stable world with the imbalances and exploitation caused by neoliberalism.
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Judi Lynn Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-25-06 11:39 AM
Response to Reply #6
13. What a shame the effects of these tricks have been hidden from
the American public so successfully. It would be far more honorable if our neoliberally driven "deciders" were honest about the result of the new trade agreements on the poor of other countries. That's asking too much, obviously.

The kind of business they conduct can only be successful done in near secrecy, and then only benefits the very wealthy, anyway, while making life unbearable for the poor.
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zonkers Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-25-06 11:46 AM
Response to Reply #6
14. Can you explain a bit more about this issue? Or maybe tell me a good
spot to find out a bit more about it?
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1932 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-25-06 12:32 PM
Response to Reply #14
16. Globalization and Its Discontents - by Joseph Stiglitz
and, just for fun, Health of Nations (even though it's not about foreign policy, it'll make you think about the effects of polarization of wealth).
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Dems Will Win Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-25-06 04:35 PM
Response to Reply #14
19. Real Price of Corn down 70% since 1994
90 Micro-Regions supply most of the illegal immigrants, areas wiped out by cheap corn dumped by US agribusiness.

If ALMO does this it may cut down the border crisis.
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Secret Agent Donating Member (37 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-25-06 06:13 PM
Response to Reply #6
20. "I think there shouldn't be borders"
That sounds like a libertarian fantasy to me. How can a nation be a nation, without borders?
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1932 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-25-06 10:35 PM
Response to Reply #20
27. ...just like Europe. The French-German border used to be the most heavily
Edited on Sun Jun-25-06 10:36 PM by 1932
fortefied in the history of the wolrd 60 years ago. Now you can cross it without even knowing it. (That's almost a verbatim quote from, IIRC, Globalization and its Discontents.)

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ugarte Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-25-06 07:50 AM
Response to Reply #1
8. If he doesn't win, something bad will happen...
Hell will break loose, because it will mean a stolen election.
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Secret Agent Donating Member (37 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-25-06 06:17 PM
Response to Reply #8
21. Really...?
Edited on Sun Jun-25-06 06:17 PM by Secret Agent
Are you an odds maker in Las Vegas as well?
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ugarte Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-25-06 08:13 PM
Response to Reply #21
24. The Mexican people will judge if the election was stolen
as they have much experience in rigged elections, and, yes, I would bet good money that if Obrador loses there will be riots and tremendous social turmoil. The fact that you express skepticism tells me you don't spend much time in Mexico.
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Peace Patriot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-25-06 06:48 AM
Response to Original message
3. Lopez Obrador said he would work at half-salary. OUR political
'representatives' recently (last week) RAISED their own salaries ($3,300 more per year, for the Diebold Congress). So did the 2 to 1 majority Democrats in the California state legislature. What's wrong with this picture?
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1932 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-25-06 07:05 AM
Response to Reply #3
5. Bush's salary is double Clinton's.
I think a lot of legislators in the US deserve to get paid more (and they should get paid out of progressive taxes), but Bush's salary did double comparied to Clinton, and it seems we're getting about half the effort from him.
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Peace Patriot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-25-06 08:27 AM
Response to Reply #5
10. I do NOT agree. Most of our legislators deserve to be in jail! And all
their "assets" seized. These corrupt bastards RAISING their salaries while inflicting us and future generations with a $9 TRILLION debt! While many people in this country have to choose between food and medical care! While people are having to live and support families on $5/hour, if they have jobs at all! While billions and billions of dollars are 'disappeared' in Iraq! While they lard the super-rich with one tax cut after another, and poor families are paying the BULK of federal taxes! It is UNCONSCIONABLE! And state legislators--the whole goddamned lot of them "selected" by Diebold and ES&S--are not much better than the criminals in Congress! In California, the 2 to 1 majority Democrats have tabled an impeachment resolution because it interferes with the "deals" they are making with Schwarz/Bushites. They furthermore permitted our good Secretary of State, Kevin Shelley--who had sued Diebold, and de-certified the worst of their election theft machines--to be "swiftboated" out of office on entirely bogus corruption charges. They hid under their desks. Some of them colluded with corrupt county election officials. They then let Schwarzenegger APPOINT a Republican Diebold shill as Secretary of State, who has now illegally RE-certified Diebold touchscreens!

They ought to be CUTTING their salaries, and wearing sackcloth and ashes for shame!
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1932 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-25-06 07:03 AM
Response to Original message
4. So the Ecuador elections were a sign that the tide was turning against
the Left and against Chavez in Latin America? Hmm.
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1932 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-25-06 10:40 PM
Response to Reply #4
28. Oops. Meant Peru. Thinking too much about World Cup today, I guess.
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Vidar Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-25-06 07:33 AM
Response to Original message
7. Viva Obrador!
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Peace Patriot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-25-06 08:06 AM
Response to Original message
9. Watch out for corporate predators news 'narratives'...
There really could nothing worse for the Bush junta, as to international politics, than the election of Leftist Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador ("Amlo") as president of Mexico--a man who leads by example, and whose policies reflect the interests of the vast majority of people. So watch out for the "swiftboating" and other dirty election theft tactics. Virtually the entire continent of South America has gone "blue" over the last several years--with Leftist governments elected in Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Uruguay, Venezuela and Bolivia, and growing Leftist movements in Peru, and even Columbia, also in Nicaragua.--and now in Mexico. It is a huge unstoppable movement, based on TRANSPARENT elections (--years of hard work by the OAS, the Carter Center, EU election monitoring groups and local civic groups). (U.S. voters, take note!) Its common themes are self-determination and opposition to U.S. global corporate predator policy/domination. The Bush junta is out to "divide and conquer," undermine, and disrupt this movement in every way they can. The threat to the Bush junta posed by majority rule and real democracy in Latin American countries cannot be overly stressed. While they've been busy destroying Iraq, and bankrupting the U.S. with massive thievery, Latin America has become THE center of democracy in the Western Hemisphere.

Recently, in the Peruvian election, a Leftist candidate--Ollanta Humala--came out of nowhere to win 30% of the vote in a prelim election for president, winning a runoff against the frontrunner (a corporate progressive, a la Clinton/NAFTA, with a long personal history of corruption--Alan Garcia). Humala's surprising showing bumped the rightwing candidate tout of the race. Humala--a grass roots candidate with no big money/corporate support--then went on the INCREASE his vote total to 45% in the final election. Because of Humala's success, the Bush/Corporate predators had no choice but to back the corrupt progressive (Garcia). But when the narrative of this election was written, the corporate predator press wrote it as a victory for Bush. Humala, a 100% indigenous Andean, like Evo Morales in Bolivia, is allied with Morales and with Hugo Chavez of Venezuela. They all subscribe to the Bolivarian principle of regional self-determination and unity against exploiters and foreign, especially U.S., domination. Morales' and Chavez's endorsement of Humala was painted as "interference" (by neighbor countries) and used as the linchpin of the "Bush victory" narrative. Utter crap. If anything, Morales/Chavez's endorsement is what INCREASED Humala's support by 15% between the prelim and final election. The indigenous Andeans that Morales and Humala represent straddle all three countries. They are finally coming into their own as a political force, after centuries of oppression by colonial powers. The borders drawn by the colonial powers (as in Africa)--and which revolutionary hero Simon Bolivar OPPOSED (he wanted one "united states" of the Andes, and, indeed, of all South America)--are not that meaningful to the indigenous and the poor of these countries. The charge of "interference" was ludicrous (coming from Bushites and NAFTA-ists!). It was merely a false "talking point" in a false narrative. And, after Garcia utterly destroys Peru's economy with NAFTA policies, IMF/World Bank debt and corruption (a la Argentina), the Leftists will be back to pick up the pieces (as they had to do in Argentina). The global corporate predators' narrative of this election completely ignored the REALITY of political, economic and social conditions in the region, and the overwhelming and very deep TREND toward self-determination, democracy, and social justice.

Watch out for some such false narrative if Amlo loses, and even if he wins. And if he wins, the Bush junta and global corporate predator interests will stop at nothing to undermine and destroy his administration. I don't think they will succeed. They failed in Venezuela (where they went so far as to back a military coup, and are even now pouring U.S. taxpayer dollars into the tiny rich oil elite political opposition, in violation of Venezuelan law--to no effect; Chavez and his government continue to have widespread popular support). They have failed everywhere, even in Peru, where they failed to get a rightwing candidate to back, and had to settle for Garcia, because of the powerful grass roots Leftist movement that is in development there, and everywhere in Latin America. And if Amlo loses, expect corporate narratives of the abject defeat of the Leftist trend. They will paint it this way even in a close election, as it promises to be (--just as they did with the Kerry/Bush "official results"--fascists don't care if half the population--or whatever manipulated "official result" they come up with--disagrees; the reins of power are all they need, and, once they have them, they feel free to commit massive thievery and illegal war, opposed by--somehow mysteriously--70% of the population). The Bush junta DESPERATELY wants to smash this Latin American Leftist movement, and, if Amlo loses, they will say they have (as they did re Peru). But it will STILL BE THERE, waiting to pick up the pieces after ANOTHER corporate predator government (Calderon). It is not going away. It is the future.

----------------

"The time of the people has come." --Evo Morales
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goodhue Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-25-06 08:47 AM
Response to Original message
11. Por el bien de todos, primero los pobres.
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murray hill farm Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-25-06 09:04 AM
Response to Original message
12. That made my day!!!
I hope with every inch of my being that it holds! Mexico soooooooooo needs Obrador!
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The Anti-Neo Con Donating Member (402 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-25-06 12:26 PM
Response to Original message
15. I sure hope Obrador can pull through for a win!
Not only will it help the people of Mexico, but it will be a great big F*CK YOU to Bush.
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Judi Lynn Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-25-06 12:45 PM
Response to Original message
17. Populist left-winger becomes Mexican poll frontrunner
Populist left-winger becomes Mexican poll frontrunner
James Hider, Queretaro, Mexico
June 26, 2006

~snip~
On Sunday, when about 70 million Mexicans are eligible to vote, the country will decide whether to continue with the slow-moving market reforms of the ruling National Action Party (PAN), represented by a rather grey technocrat, Felipe Calderon, or to take a gamble on the radical changes promised by Amlo.

The charismatic Lopez Obrador has travelled thousands of kilometres by car between stump speeches, stopping off to attend meetings with community leaders, businessmen and supporters, while other candidates jet from rally to rally in private planes.

It is all of a piece with his hard-working, man-of-the-people image. While mayor of Mexico City, Lopez Obrador, now 52, would arrive at work before dawn, holding press conferences at 6.30am, shunning the trappings of power to arrive in an old Subaru and living in a modest apartment in an unfashionable part of town. He has also pledged to take only half of the presidential salary if he wins, which the latest polls suggest he is set to do, with 35 per cent to Calderon's 30 per cent.

The lack of frills has drawn support in a country where about half the people live in poverty and half the economy is an unregulated street market, yet which is home to some of the richest people in Latin America, including the world's third richest, Carlos Slim Helu.
(snip/...)

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,19585908-2703,00.html
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Cocoa Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-25-06 02:53 PM
Response to Original message
18. U.S. media is afraid of Lopez
about a month ago, they were claiming Calderon was pulling ahead, when in fact Lopez has had a solid lead throughout. CNN as I recall was especially interested in promoting Calderon.

Aside from these phony reports of Lopez's falling behind, they've ignored him.
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Secret Agent Donating Member (37 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-25-06 06:20 PM
Response to Reply #18
22. "U.S. media is afraid of Lopez"
Has he threatened them?
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Solon Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-25-06 08:27 PM
Response to Reply #22
25. He said he will pull Mexico out of NAFTA entirely, yeah, our media...
and Government would view that as a threat. In fact, given our history, I believe that the US will attempt some shenanigans in the coming elections in Mexico, that I would bet on.
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arcos Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-25-06 06:30 PM
Response to Reply #18
23. Lopez didn't have a solid lead for a while...
He is now back ahead in all polls, but for about 3 months he was in an statistical tie with Calderón, sometimes Calderón ahead, sometimes Lopez ahead.
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nick303 Donating Member (379 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-25-06 10:29 PM
Response to Reply #18
26. Calderon briefly pulled ahead, by less than 2%
only to quickly slip behind again.
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1932 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-25-06 10:42 PM
Response to Reply #26
29. Isn't Dick Morris working for him now?
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Zorra Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-25-06 11:07 PM
Response to Original message
30. I'll be back down in Mexico for the election, and if Lopez Obrador
gets elected, and, if I can convince my friend to keep the Cantina open, I promise to get shitface drunk and buy a round of Cazadores for the house, with a hearty salud to Lopez Obrador and DU.
:toast:
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w4rma Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-25-06 11:19 PM
Response to Original message
31. I have liked everything I have heard about Obrador. I hope he wins. (nt)
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