Southern San Andreas fault waiting to explode

[boise1]

Expert believes Los Angeles area at risk for massive earthquake

Reuters
Updated: 23 minutes ago

LONDON - The southern end of the San Andreas fault near Los Angeles, which has been still for more than two centuries, is under immense stress and could produce a massive earthquake at any moment, a scientist said Wednesday.

Yuri Fialko, of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography at La Jolla, Calif., said that given average annual movement rates in other areas of the fault, there could be enough pent-up energy in the southern end to trigger a cataclysmic jolt of up to 32 feet (10 meters).

"The observed strain rates confirm that the southern section of the San Andreas fault may be approaching the end of the interseismic phase of the earthquake cycle," he wrote in the journal Nature.

A sudden lateral movement of 23 to 32 feet (7 to 10 meters) would be among the largest ever recorded.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/13457472/

[LeftCoast]

1. The Indonesian quake that set off the tsunami moved Java 100 ft

As far as this article is concerned...those of us who grew up in SoCal are well aware of the coming 'Big One'. There's also an huge quake poised for the Bay Area that is predicted to be a similar size. The big difference is that quake should go off directly under the East Bay while the SoCal quake will rupture fairly far east of LA.

[Emillereid]

2. By the east Bay,do you mean Berkeley / Oakland? Ans how far east of LA

are you talking about -- is Santa Monica safe??

[catzies]

6. Santa Monica's concern is liquefaction -- that's why they got damage

in the Northridge quake that was centered in the SFV.

[LSparkle]

11. Absolutely -- like the Marina District suffered in '89 Loma Prieta

I'm thankful (believe it or not) that I live in the (San Fernando) Valley, on bedrock, as opposed to near the beach (except I heard that Playa Del Rey is also on stable ground, unlike other beachside communities). If the southern San Andreas goes, I've heard that it'll be out toward the San Bernardino/Riverside area, which is nearly 100 miles from L.A., meaning the shaking won't be any worse (ha!) than we experienced in '94 (which was bad enough).

We all live in "suspension of belief" here in SoCal, prepared as much as we can be but not dwelling every day on the possibility of the "Big One."

[kestrel91316]

52. Greeting, fellow Valleyite! I agree. When the Big One hits, we won't shake

any worse here than we did with Northridge (though that was plenty bad enough!!!).

[calimary]

100. I remember how badly Santa Monica got hit. ALL the condos and

apartment buildings along lower San Vicente Blvd were evacuated and everybody parked their cars in the grassy median and camped out there. But the press all went to Northridge because there was a death in a collapsed apartment building. I remember driving down to Santa Monica for something unrelated on the day after the quake. I was still at the A.P. at the time. I was stunned to see the wreckage and all the "campgrounds" that suddenly popped up everywhere, the police tape all over everywhere, blocks and blocks - both residential and in the business district that were cordoned off and designated unsafe, the buildings that were visibly compromised and crumbling - and NO media at all. NOBODY realized that Santa Monica had been hit hard. I was just stunned! I called into the assignment desk and urged them at least to send a photo guy out to Santa Monica to get pictures because there was quite a story here, too. It was really shocking!

[katty]

31. liquefaction is a concern of Marina Del Rey-next door to us

here in SMonica. Even during the Northridge quake, SM got hit pretty hard as well.

[Karenina]

74. Liquefaction is NOT a fun experience.

Not.at.all.

[EFerrari]

10. The East Bay all the way down to East San Jose or so needs

to be more concerned with the Hayward fault, iirc. That runs right under the Cal stadium.

[LeftCoast]

13. Berkely and Oakland would be very close to the projected epicenter

As to the SoCal quake, it's supposed to hit 60+ miles east of Los Angeles. :hi:

[goclark]

71. We live near the LA Airport

are you saying it will hit closer to Pasadena?

My mother is so nervous.

At first I wasn't going to tell her then I thought it best to give her the info about Preparing...

http://www.72hours.org/earthquake.html
Now she is busy getting her kit together.

[Pithy Cherub]

18. For Northridge Quake, west of the 10 it really tore up.

Part of the 10 Freeway collapsed and it was a while before we could drive the full 10 Freeway. Anything near a beach has to really be safety minded because it is more silt and the shaking is awesome - you feel it even more. Yep, I was near the beach for Northridge and it makes you take the precautions of bolting and sticking things down much more seriously.

[flyarm]

49. i lost my home in the northridge quake..lived in valley village..

next to sherman oaks..and studio city..i got out..moved east...

went through fires floods riots and then earthquake..and lost it all..and said..go east..go east go east...and i got the hell out rather than rebuild..

was homeless for 9 mos. waiting for fema..and insurance..and got royally screwed by insurance...

but we survived..and my family was not hurt..so thats all that matters..stuff is stuff..
we lost it all..but we left healthy..thats all that counts...

and then you rebuild...

fly

[Cha]

66. Yeah, when it really gets

down to it..it's better to cut and run and live to rebuild another day!

[Pithy Cherub]

78. fly, you are inspirational!

That terrifying minute when the quake happens and you all had the presence of mind to save what was most important. You and yours! Glad you are here, healthy and sharing. :pals:

[flyarm]

82. thanks but no i am not...you just do what you have to do..thats all..

if you walk away with your lives and health..you just brush your shoes off..you roll up your sleaves..and you do what has to be done..

its later after you come out the other side you cry..but when you are going through it..there is no time to cry or even to think...you just do what nature makes you do..

you help your neighbors..and they help you..you just go on...thats all..

but the human side of it is..it is now 12 years afterwards..and i still keep a couple dishes that have huge chips..my husband asks why i keep them..and i couldn't answer for a long time...

it was something inside me i just could not throw the last couple things away...

i couldn't answer it to myelf for sooo long..now 12 years older..i know..its because i needed to keep them to know i would make it through it..

the mom has to be the strong one..the wife has to be the strong one..and i had to keep my family together..and those couple things were my security blanket..
they let me know i moved beyond it all..and they make me grateful that we moved on and we are aok...

and everytime i climb to the top shelf in my kitchen and think i will throw them out..i just can't do it..

they make me know we can beat anything!

fly

[serryjw]

101. Tent City

I had to set of friends that lived there for months while their homes were re-built. Happy the family is ok.

[kestrel91316]

51. Sant Monica is IN LA. It's east of downtown, on the beach. The San Andreas

fault is WAAAAYYYYYY to the northeast, about 50 miles.

[Psephos]

77. Actually, it's West of downtown

I do that all the time, too. :-)

Peace.

[kestrel91316]

84. Oops, lol! And I used to be a nationally ranked orienteer. Shame on me.

[sea urchin]

61. Let's hope FEMA isn't

on "top of their game" like they were in New Orleans, when this hits.

[BrotherBuzz]

3. 32 feet movement in a populated area makes this 1906 photo look tame

A fence, near Point Reyes, California, offset 8.5 feet by displacement on the fault during the 1906 earthquake

[Barad Simith]

36. wow

thanks for the photo

[Journeyman]

4. Looks like Yuri Fialko needed his name published. . .

I can't recount all the hundreds of seismologists in my life who have made equally dire predictions -- usually putting the event "sometime in the next 30 years."

Well of course something is going to happen "in the next 30 years." But the truth is, like the weather, we can all talk about it and pontificate daily, but the reality is no one has a clue what or when a specific seismological event may happen. Yuri's most likely up for promotion and needed to get something published.

Me? I worry more about car crashes and plantar warts than I do cataclysmic earthquakes -- and I've lived in California better than half a century.

[hang a left]

9. I thought there was not the science to determine

when and where earthquakes would happen also.

[Cessna Invesco Palin]

16. It's not quite that simple.

Statistics and our understanding of plate tectonics can give us some good clues as to how much stress exists on a certain portion of a certain fault, and how frequently that fault has large ruptures. (Small earthquakes leave few traces, and are thus difficult to spot in the geologicial record.)

The primary problem is that geological forces play out on a time scale almost completely foreign to humans - hundreds or tens of thousands or millions of years. Geologists have spent years looking for a reliable short-term precursor to large earthquakes (say, clusters of smaller quakes around the eventual epicenter) without much success.

The article we're discussing here has to do with a new way of measuring the amount of stress on faults. It confirms much of what we suspected about the southern San Andreas - namely that it's under a *lot* of stress.

Hope that helps.

[Eugene]

23. "Predicting exactly when... is beyond scientists' ability."

"Predicting exactly when that might happen, however, is beyond scientists' ability."

A much less sensational AP version of the same story,
Study Shows Fault Overdue for Quake, points this out.
Even the build-up itself is not a 100% certainty.

[hyphenate]

39. No science, but

I had only been in L.A. area a year when I lay on the edge of my bed one day in September, 1989 and said loudly: "We going to have a big earthquake VERY soon." In october, one month later, the 1989 quake rattled everything and everybody, especially San Francisco and Oakland.

I never understood how I had such a foreboding, except to credit the cats. Animals get a sense MUCH earlier than humans, and my kits then were new to California as well. Perhaps they brought with them a lot more sensitivity than those who were used to it.

[Cessna Invesco Palin]

59. Here's the problem with that...

For every person whose "intuition" is proven right, then are ten whose intuition is proven wrong.

Animals get a sense MUCH earlier than humans

Not true. Some animals may be more sensitive to some pre-quake events, but there is absolutely no proven link between strange animal behaviour and earthquakes. It was long ago discarded as a reliable predictor of seismic activity.

[Cessna Invesco Palin]

12. You think geologists like not being able to make accurate earthquake...

...predictions? The truth of the matter is that the sciences of geology and geophysics have advanced immesurably in the last fifty years, and yet nobody can predict earthquakes well enough for the prediction to be of practical everyday use. (They are useful for long-term development planning use and many other things, not that anyone bothers to do so anyway.) But that doesn't mean that they can't refine the predictions to some extent based on their understanding of the forces involved. Yuri Fialko is one of the pioneers in the field of using radar to understand how the crust works - how earthquakes work. His work in this field is substantial. This is not some silly gambit in order to get published.

I would expect a more enlightened attitude towards science from DU.

[Journeyman]

28. And the Chinese used observations on the behavior of farm animals. . .

and fluctuating levels of well water to "predict" an earthquake in the mid-1970s (something that was never verified and, to my knowledge, never duplicated) -- so no, I don't share your veneration of all science, especially seismology where I've heard so much blather over the years.

I've no doubt Yuri Fialko is doing a bang up job at Scripps Institute, and is indisputably a leader in his field, but of what practical use does that do for me? You admit yourself, they can't predict accurately enough to be of everyday use, and few people -- other than engineers and the like -- can or do make use of what they say. So for a media outlet (in this case, msnbc, and not []iNature whose target audience is quite different), the purpose of this article is cheap sensationalism, and if Mr Fialko participated in this popular recounting of his theories he is engaging in nothing more or less than personal publicity, since his article fills the need for his publishing requirement and reaches the target audience for such information.

As I work daily with three university research labs, one of the largest privately funded scientific research institutes in the States, and quite a number of government labs and civil engineering firms, I have an appreciation -- an "enlightened attitude," if you will -- towards science and the struggle for daily advances. I hold in contempt and ridicule at will all attempts by anyone to use science for sensationalist purposes. And unfortunately, given the plethora of "pontification" I've heard from seismologists over the years, I put all prognostications of impending geological doom in the same category as I file readings of tea leaves and pig entrails.

[Megahurtz]

38. The ants in our yard have all bailed

in the past month or more.
Not one single ant and I'm not kidding, it's like we live on an anthill!
It seriously kind of makes me wonder. :shrug:

[catzies]

55. This area was all orchards & groves I think, but ants coming up from

underground in droves is an annual event around here when it gets hot & dry and they get thirsty.

[Exultant Democracy]

48. They predicted a shake early this year.

After some plant leak I remember hearing a report on NPR and one gentleman (a Canadian teacher living in a town near by) was talking about how the government had warned towns along the river that there was an earthquake coming soon that would make the spill worse. The next day when I turned on the news they had the earthquake and I was like WTF I didn't know the Chinese could do that.

[Ediacara]

75. He has satelite data that shows average annual slip on all areas

of the fault, and the area he's focusing on has very little slip compared to the others. These "darkened" seismic areas on a fault almost always have large earthquakes before areas that have had them more recently. Additionally, earthquake forecasting is quite accurate, you're just leaving out the important part: there's always a probability attached: such and such fault has a such and such chance of a rupture of such and such magnitude within this many years.

[serryjw]

102. This is totally irresponsible

to publish this and scare the shit out of people, especially the elderly

[noonwitch]

5. Remember to buy up all that future coastline in Nevada

like Lex Luthor did in the first "Superman" movie.

"We all have our little faults-mine's in California".

[roamer65]

8. I wonder if Boulder Dam

will hold?

[B3Nut]

63. You mean Hoover?

It hasn't been called Boulder Dam since the change back to Hoover in 1947, even though remnants of the Boulder name seemed to hang around in some places. Truman signed that resolution changing the name, incidentally...Harold Ickes wanted the name changed to "Boulder" when FDR took office. He couldn't do it officially, but the Boulder name showed up in tourist pamphlets. FDR certainly didn't care for the fact that it was named after Hoover...

Sad that a breathtaking engineering marvel has to be named for a pathetic President. It's an amazing piece of work, one of our moments of brilliance. I love going through it...the new tourist center is killer.

Todd in Beerbratistan

[liberalpragmatist]

103. Well, Hoover was an engineer

And a humanitarian, so it made sense. He's actually pretty underrated as a President. He didn't cause the depression and while his measures proved inadequate, he was actually the most activist president up until that point and considered a progressive Republican (of course, he was WAY eclipsed by FDR).

[GregW]

37. Learn to swim - see you down in Arizona Bay

:evilgrin:

[Journeyman]

44. It's a common misperception about the geology of California. . .

that in an earthquake we are going to slip beneath the Pacific waves. Quite the reverse will actually happen. Geologically, the West is younger and rising, so earthquake's tend to push California upward and not into the sea.

[Ediacara]

76. Not upward, but to the northwest

LA will be off the coast of San Francisco in the not terribly distant future (geologically speaking).

[liam_laddie]

104. Read John McPhee's

excellent 1993 book "Assembling California." A great read for non-geologists about how
the earth's crust actually operates. Human timescale just can't relate to Mom "Gaia" Nature's
patience and the scale of the forces at work. It'll be a big one...sometime.

[roamer65]

7. Could happen very soon

They are right. The San Andreas in southern California is not a straight line, it zig-zags quite a bit, making for a lot of "catch points". With all the movement on the western side of the Pacific and Indo-Australian plates as of late, I expect movement on the eastern side of the Pacific plate to be a forgone conclusion. Eastern side of Pacific is the San Andreas fault. For comparison, I believe the northern San Andreas only moved about 6-9 feet in the Great Quake of 1906. With Iraq, Afghanistan, Katrina already to deal with...yikes.

[NMDemDist2]

20. welcome to DU roamer65!

:hi:

[Cessna Invesco Palin]

22. Movement in the western pacific may not be relevant.

Think of the crust as a sort of large (quite a few metres square) sheet of fairly stiff rubber. Now imagine pushing your thumb against one edge of it. The forces involved are actually pretty small compared to the composition and sheer mass of the crust.

[Pithy Cherub]

14. What else moves if the San Andreas moves?

There are so many faults here that it is an impossibility to track them all. But the San Andreas moving is cause for concern - depending on where the epicenter is. A few years ago the 7.0 out near Joshua Tree (not San Andreas) shook and rolled but nowhere near the damage one would expect with something that big. Northridge was a 6.4.

Still make note, must get new earthquake kit. :think:

[gkhouston]

32. the fault runs all the way up to the Bay area

and if it slipped up there, too, it would put more pressure on the Hayward fault. Not good for SF, which is also "due" for a biggie.

[kestrel91316]

53. Northridge was 6.7 or 6.9, IIRC. Felt like a Richter 20.

[goclark]

64. Amazing Prepare For Emergency SITE! Must read

http://www.72hours.org/earthquake.html

[GodlessBiker]

15. OMG! Not Palm Springs!!

[eowyn_of_rohan]

91. First NYC then NOLA

and the Gulf coast...NO MORE of our favorite places! :(

[frylock]

17. stop plate tectonics!

[Cessna Invesco Palin]

19. I always wanted to write a layman's geology book...

...entitled "The Art of Subduction"

:hide:

[MindPilot]

24. Nice!!

My suggestion was for "Speed Subduction: Get Any MoHo You Want"

sometimes I crack me up...:rofl:

[Lisa]

50. I love it! I've been hoping to write a hardboiled thriller ...

... about a boundary-layer climatologist who fights crime. I can't decide between "Latent Heat" and "Rough Elements".

[Psephos]

68. Heh heh

In the meantime, though, you could read John McPhee's Assembling California, which is about as good as geology books get.

Peace.

[coalition_unwilling]

25. Bush declares a Global War on Earthquakes. "You're either

with us or with the tectonics."

[redqueen]

27. hahahahahaha

:P

[Cronus Protagonist]

30. We Must Win The War on Terra!

:evilgrin:

Educate A Freeper - Flaunt Your Opinions!
http://brainbuttons.com/home.asp?stashid=13

[frylock]

34. oh damn!

thanks for the laugh!

[Hekate]

40. Reunite Gondwanaland! Look what the War on Terra gets you.

:rofl:
sigh
I live near Santa Barbara. When our many fault lines go, we're toast. Soggy, soggy toast.

But in terms of risk, big earthquakes don't happen NEARLY as often as hurricanes and tornadoes, so I think I won't be moving to Tornado Alley anytime soon.

Hekate

[Hell Hath No Fury]

21. Well, DUH!

Holy cow, people here in CA know for damn sure we're going to have an earthquake -- and a pretty damn big one -- sometime within our lifetimes.

It's a GIVEN.

As a San Franciscan, I worry more about the Hayward fault than the San Andreas right now. :scared:

[Bob3]

26. well we've had floods - we've had fires

it's about time for an earth quake. I cringe to think of the inept response DHS and FEMA would have if we do have the big one on *'s watch.

[kineneb]

29. Floods, fire, earthquakes- Armageddon? No, California!

Just another day in my home state. Yes, I attach my bookcases to the wall, but on the whole, we have no more problems than anywhere else. At least we get to skip tornadoes (except small ones in the valleys) and hurricanes.

[katty]

33. yea, we have had them all in CA!

[Raine]

35. Everyone here in CA

knows this already, we live with the knowledge everyday.

[slackmaster]

73. Yes, but most people have failed to prepare themselves

I keep substantial supplies of drinking water, food, and other emergency supplies in my home at all times.

I am prepared to go for two weeks with no utilities or outside assistance.

[section321]

41. Guess I picked a good time to move to Tennessee

Let's see...

1) I was around long enough to vote for Marcy Winograd in the primary (sorry Marcy)

2) I'll be in Tennesee soon enough to vote in the general election (woo hoo! is Frist running this time?)

3) After living through 5 or 10 earthquakes in the last 29 years, I'll be out of here soon enough to miss the big one.


Not bad... :-)

[Sgent]

46. Not so fast

The New Madrid Fault is a real concern in Western Tennessee, having produced 7.9 earthquakes in 1811. One problem (compared to CA), is that building codes are still not uniform (and most buildings are not resistant), and the earthquake problems were recongized only in the last 30-40 years.

The New Madrid Fault System

The greatest earthquake risk east of the Rocky Mountains is along the New Madrid fault system. Damaging earthquakes are much less frequent than in California, but when they do occur, the damage can be far greater, due to the underlying geology.

The New Madrid fault system, or the New Madrid seismic zone, is a series of faults beneath the continental crust in a weak spot known as the Reelfoot Rift. It cannot be seen on the surface. The fault system extends 150 miles southward from Cairo, Illinois through New Madrid and Caruthersville, Missouri, down through Blytheville, Arkansas to Marked Tree, Arkansas. It dips into Kentucky near Fulton and into Tennessee near Reelfoot Lake, and extends southeast to Dyersburg, Tennessee. It crosses five state lines, and crosses the Mississippi River in at least three places.

The Univeristy of Memphis Center for Earthquake Research

<different article>

<snip>
These catastrophic earthquakes occurred during a three-month period in December 1811 and early 1812. They caused permanent changes in the course of the Mississippi River, which flowed backwards temporarily, and were felt as far away as New York City and Boston, Massachusetts where churchbells rang. Large areas sank into the earth, fissures opened, lakes permanently drained, new lakes were formed, and forests were destroyed over an area of 150,000 acres (600 km²). Many houses at New Madrid were thrown down. "Houses, gardens, and fields were swallowed up" one source notes. But fatalities and damage were low, because the area was sparsely settled. Hundreds of aftershocks followed over a period of several years. All three major quakes are generally believed to have exceeded 8.0 on the Richter Scale, and some seismologists believe the largest was 9.0 or larger.

Wikipedia

[tinfoilinfor2005]

42. I live on a boat in the Florida Keys. Years ago I read an article

by a seismologist (and touted as an expert in the field) who wrote about the tides in the Keys. He said that when a low low tide is followed by a high high tide, and/or vice versa, an earthquake is about to occur somewhere in the world. So after I read the article I made a mental note to monitor the world news after these types of tides, which we have from time to time. And guess what? He was right. Every time we have an extremely low tide immediately followed by an extra high tide, and vice versa, shortly afterward an earthquake occurs somewhere in the world.

Soooo...other than finding this an interesting piece of trivia, I will from now on announce when this occurs, and you can do with the info as you see fit.

[goclark]

43. Please email me, I live in Los Angeles

I have been back here for 5 years and so far no quakes of note.

I feel the big one coming. :(

PS/ I LOVE LA

[tinfoilinfor2005]

47. Sure thing...

I'll pm you if you like. Keep in mind, this doesn't mean that a quake is imminent in your area...just somewhere in the world.

[goclark]

60. Thank you! I just want to know when

the high tide/low tide situation looks bleak.

My mom is 88 years old and I want to make sure she is safe.

I heard them mention on the news this morning something about there being a earthquake in the near future.

Since I have heard that all my life, it is hard to determine how soon is soon when they mention it.:hug:

This is a fantastic site that I'll post on the California Forum.
It's really good for everyone.

http://www.72hours.org/earthquake.html

[tinfoilinfor2005]

65. Ok...

It is very easy for me to notice these types of tides, because during an extra high tide, I can barely climb up to the boat, and very low tide, the gunwhales of the boat are poking under the dock. You can pm me your email if you like. 'Course I may not be on my boat if a hurricane is on its way! :)

[kestrel91316]

54. I have news for you. Earthquakes are occurring constantly all around the

world. All day and night. Every day.

Some bigger, some littler. But they are CONSTANT.

[hogwyld]

45. It's the GOP's conspiracy...

To get rid of another blue state! First they thrust diebold on us. then eliminate California

[Canuck55]

79. For sure.

You know Rove wishes there was an 'Atlantic Rim'. Then God could wipe out the East and West coasts at the same time to ensure Republican dominance for centuries!

[Canuck55]

56. Aren't they all technically?

LONDON - The southern end of the San Andreas fault near Los Angeles, which has been still for more than two centuries, is under immense stress and could produce a massive earthquake at any moment, a scientist said Wednesday.

====================

Err, not to sound like a dick, but isn't this just everyday knowledge there? "approaching the end of the interseismic phase" .. when will that be again? 5 years? 250 years?. Changes nothing, prepare always and then cross your fingers.

[Up2Late]

57. I have a question, If the people in the areas that were built on fill dirt

...in areas like the Marina District and parts of Santa Monica, KNOW that this is coming and KNOW that their homes will not survive a major quake like this (due to Liquefaction), why don't they remove the houses from those areas and turn those areas into park land?

I mean, I know you don't get quakes every day (I only felt 2 in 3 years in the mid-1980's in Santa Barbara) but come on! :wtf:

[Journeyman]

58. Largely cost. Land's at a premium in South California. . .

so to pick up an existing home and move it elsewhere? Very, very expensive. And then, you'd probably end up living in the "Inland Empire" . . . a sweltering hot, shiveringly cold area some 90 minutes inland from the coast. And when all is said in done, if you have a home in paradise (and Santa Monica is mighty close to it), why move on the off-chance your home may be destroyed by liquefaction during an earthquake? You could move to rockier, firmer land (the Inland Empire, say), and still have your house destroyed by rocks tumbling down a hill. So where do you go that's safe? Nowhere, and everywhere, in South California -- we "pays our money and we takes our chance."

[martymar64]

67. You forgot SMOG!

Moving to the Inland empire is not only hot in the summer and cold in the winter, but it traps all of the pollution out there too! Besides, if you're in SaMo or Venice or Manhattan Bch, would you want to move to Fontana?!?!

Santa Monica is IMO close to Paradise!

Santa Monica College Alumni. Go Corsairs!!!

[goclark]

70. I lived in the midwest and I'll take the earthquakes

here.

I LOVE Southern California!

[Canuck55]

80. If it was filled properly...

Liquifaction wouldn't be an issue. If they used clean pitrun gravel or blast rock, compacted properly, then it shouldn't be an issue more than anywhere else. Liquifaction happens in pure silts and sands. Basically think of a large box of equal sized marbles that are less dense than water. While dry it's all good, but flood that same box with water and then try and pack the marbles down.

It's a large concern here in BC as Richmond (southern Vancouver suburb) is basically entirely built on sand, and if(when) the big one comes 500000 people could find themselves literally in quicksand.

[Up2Late]

92. Most of the old fill areas, like the Marina District in SF where not...

...filled that carefully. They just found an old, historically significant whaling ship, a few months ago at a SF construction site, where they were digging a basement for a new building, There's all kinds of crap fill like that in these fill areas.

In Vancouver, you also have the rising Sea Level to worry about too, check out what someone posted in reply to me: <http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=2350781&mesg_id=2351470>

So, what's the weather like in Vancouver? How cold does it usually get? I tried to find the average monthly temperatures in Vancouver at the Canadian Weather service site, but I couldn't find that info.

[Canuck55]

99. True enough...

It would have been done long before the geotech. industry got going full swing.

I lived in Van for 2 years, basically think of it as northern Seattle weatherwise. Lots of rain, winter avg. of about 6 C, summer avg. of 30 C.

[lonestarnot]

62. Yikes!

California's Katrina coming. Better move now people because you know you get no help from bushitler.

[goclark]

72. Maybe we should move to Utah(no thanks) cause he

doesn't seem to be helping anyone.

I'll stay right here in my beautiful Southern California.

[lonestarnot]

85. You are right about that!

but during a disaster, disaster's ass makes it worse!

[shadowknows69]

69. I know its a trip

But any Duers that need a bed and roof in NY we have a room. Just sayin.

[goclark]

81. That is very kind of you

:hug:

[tirechewer]

83. As I type here...

right on the edge of the San Andreas Fault, I wonder if it is scare California time. They have been printing variations on this theme since I was a child. No one can predict with any certainty when or where an earthquake will hit or how bad it will be.

I have joggled through a lot of earthquakes including the big guy in 1994 and I would just as soon not participate in this one, but articles like this don't affect anything one way or another. Everyone who lives here lives with earthquakes and the possibility of the Big One. I can think of something worse though. Having FEMA come in to "help" us like they "helped" the hurricane victims on the Gulf Coast. Now that would be a disaster. ;)

[BrightKnight]

86. Global warming triggering and enhancing volcanic and seismic activity

Increasing the temperature of the earth's crust might trigger and increase the prevalence of seismic and volcanic activity. Higher temperatures usually cause increased volatility. Heating something will cause it to expand. Perhaps global warming played a roll in triggering the Tsunami.

Substantial changes to weather patterns would result in different patterns of warm and cold. Parts of the crust would certainly expand and contract in response.

Perhaps the ring of fire will explode in a "cycle" of increased activity.

[XemaSab]

90. I hate to break it to you

but air temperature doesn't affect the crust more than about a foot down.

There's no relationship there.

[lonestarnot]

93. Hmmmf... so that splains it. Aren't you just a wizard. Global warming

has nut'n to do with nut'n. Move along nut'n to see here.

[XemaSab]

95. I'm a soil scientist

I've taken several classes in geology and climatology, I've lived near fault lines for most of my life, and I've done a lot of reading on the side.

You're welcome to have a cockamamie theory if you want, but there is a preponderance of evidence that global warming has nothing to do with plate tectonics (unless you're referring to isostatic adjustments between glacial and interglacial sequences).

[BrightKnight]

96. 5' rise in ocean depth is huge and sudden mass redistribution

A 5' rise in the depth of the Pacific Ocean would be a huge and sudden redistribution of the Earth's mass. It is reasonable to assume that some tectonic adjustments would occur.

[Zynx]

97. Um, no.

This isn't even worthy of debate, on a number of levels.

[MagniCynic]

87. Damn *. It's all his fault.

[Mr_Spock]

88. You think we think Bush is at FAULT

:rofl:

[Ilsa]

89. I bet Pat Robertson is drooling all over himself waiting for this one.

And Fred Phelps too. They see this trauma and tragedy as an opportunity to advance their agendas.

[HannibalBarca]

94. Bah Scientists...

What do they know, no doubt a liberal plot.

[BadgerKid]

98. So this is believable but global warming isn't?

Just rewrite the headline as "Expert believes Earth at risk for massive temperature increase". Hey, wait. That basically has been a headline.

I wonder what the R's say now.