Mexico leftist ahead in president race -new poll

[Judi Lynn]

Mexico leftist ahead in president race -new poll
Wed Jun 14, 2006 12:20am ET

MEXICO CITY, June 13 (Reuters) - Mexican leftist Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador leads his conservative rival by three percentage points in Mexico's presidential race, according to the second poll on Tuesday putting the former Mexico City mayor in front.

The poll, conducted by the Consulta Mitofsky polling group and broadcast on the Televisa television channel, gave 35 percent to Lopez Obrador and 32 percent to Felipe Calderon.

Earlier on Tuesday, a poll in the Milenio newspaper gave 34.2 percent to Lopez Obrador and 31 percent to Calderon ahead of the July 2 election. Most other recent polls had put the pair in a tie.
(snip/...)

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-06-14T042107Z_01_N13143655_RTRIDST_0_MEXICO-ELECTION-POLL-MITOFSKY-URGENT.XML

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Lopez Obrador Widens Lead in Mexico Poll, Milenio Diario Says
June 13 (Bloomberg) -- Mexican presidential candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, a former mayor of Mexico City, widened his lead in a voter opinion poll ahead of the July 2 election.

Lopez Obrador, the candidate for the Party of the Democratic Revolution, had the support of 34 percent of likely voters, unchanged from May, according to the poll released today by the Mexico City daily Milenio Diario. Support for Felipe Calderon, a former energy minister under President Vicente Fox, fell to 31 percent from 33 percent, the poll found.

Roberto Madrazo, the Institutional Revolutionary Party's candidate, had the backing of 30 percent of likely voters, unchanged from the previous Milenio Diario poll.
(snip/...)

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000086&sid=ahab5bmbi9mY&refer=latin_america

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Mexico parties to curb campaign hostilities
Staff and agencies
13 June, 2006

33 minutes ago

MEXICO CITY - Mexico‘s political parties agreed Tuesday to respect the results of the July 2 presidential election and curb mudslinging to ease tensions ahead of the vote.

Seven of the country‘s eight political parties signed the agreement, which also asked President Vicente Fox , who has been accused of campaign interference, to refrain from commenting until after the Federal Electoral Institute has announced preliminary results.

Democratic Revolution representative Leonel Cota said the agreement "is one additional element that will give peace of mind to Mexicans so they can vote without fear."

Candidates have stepped up their attacks as election day nears. Federal election officials recently ordered the top two candidates to pull campaign advertising that they deemed lodged unfair accusations.
(snip/...)

http://www.heraldnewsdaily.com/stories/news-00194671.html

[Voltaire99]

1. If only we had left leaders in the Democratic Party...

...instead of Tweedle Dee and Tweedle Dum "centrists."

They get Chavez. We get Hillary, happy to invade and occupy Iraq. They get Lula. We get Obama, opposed to censure while happy to speak at Joe Lieberman fundraisers.

Is it karma?

[saigon68]

15. Hillary and Obama what a pair

[987654321]

2. It doesn't matter who wins, most Mexicans will still be screwed.

Some people here worry that the American way of life is being assaulted by the influx of Mexican immigrants. They should be more worried about the reality that our government is mirroring that of our Mexican counterpart in chilling ways.

The media in Mexico is owned by a very select group of corporations. The economy is run by a small group of the wealthiest people who own vast monopolies of its industries. While the average minimum wage of its workers remains a paltry $4.50 a day, the wealthiest have seen their net worth skyrocket. National policy is often created in backroom meetings between government officials and corporate bosses. The election process is full of fraud, leaving many people unable to get their vote counted. National police agencies conduct themselves in unethical ways, targeting political dissidents and still following the belief that people are guilty until proved innocent. Decent schooling is only available for the rich, while the majority of the poor never finish their education if they get any at all. Industries are allowed to pollute with little or no regulation, causing serious illnesses and death. Immigrants from southern countries are targeted and blamed for Mexico's economic woes. White Mexicans get special privileges while the darker citizens endure racism and economic slavery. Homosexuals are targeted because of the influence of religious organizations have in national policy. Government corruption and cronyism runs rampant. They have basically a two party system that, even with their differences in ideology, both have bowed down to corporate pressure.

Sound familiar to anyone? There may be many people here who hate Mexican immigrants for making too many brown babies, but they are ignorant of the bigger picture. They should be angry at the government here for modeling itself after the corrupt Mexican government by protecting the interests of the wealthy above and beyond everything else.

[Warren Stupidity]

4. It will be less screwed if an anti-globalist

populist leftist is in power. There is a sea change sweeping across the political landscape of the forgotten lands to our south. Yes indeed corruption in Mexico runs deep, but there is still hope, and a victory for the left here will be a good thing.

[987654321]

5. I do hope you are right.

I hate being pessimistic about it though, especially because the wealthy and the political elite there are the reasons why so many millions have had no choice but to leave their homes to come to the US in search of work.

[Acadia Blue]

7. You are right. Our government is becomming too much like Mexico's

and I think that goal started with old dumb dumb Reagan

[justice1]

11. It's history repeating itself, it's not about brown babies.

England destroyed the economy of Ireland, which caused starvation among the people. Irish started immigrating to the U.S. some on their own accord after being encouraged, while others were forced. They were called indentured servants, which were second class citizens. Their contracts were generally from 4 to 7 years. Employers weren't happy to have their cheap labor leave, so they started passing laws that often extended a persons servitude. At the same time, they started bringing people from Africa over to meet their needs.

They preferred the blacks over the whites for two reasons. First, the weak immune systems of the whites meant mortality rates around 50% within the first few years of arriving in places like Virginia. The second reason, was the servants often ran away, whites had the advantage of being able to blend into society, so they were more difficult to recover. Everyone knows what happened next, blacks eventually had all their right stripped away, and became slaves. The justification being, the economy couldn't survive without the free labor.

This is the same rhetoric that we are hearing today, and why I am against any type of worker programs that makes a person a second class citizen. It's why I encourage Mexicans to fight for their country, and at the same time having a lottery allowing more people from Mexico and Central America a chance to immigrate, that wouldn't normally qualify. Something that isn't connected to a particular employer, putting them at the mercy of business owners.

[agincourt]

32. Very good assessment,

Of where the GOP is taking us, a third world country.

[bleedingheart]

35. I have heard that most of Mexico is owned by 8 families

[Warren Stupidity]

3. But I thought that his close association with Chavez

was hurting him at the polls. How could this be?

[Judi Lynn]

12. He's starting to fight back. Did you see the recent news about

Calderon's crooked brother-in-law and some odd business that has gone his way? Lopez-Obrador made sure he checked in on that with the press!

Gotta keep one's fingers crossed, for sure.

[Warren Stupidity]

16. My point was that the recent spate of 'poll poison chavez'

msm articles were directed by our own ministry of disinformation as part of the effort to divide the left-populist movement sweeping the forgotten lands to the south.

[nick303]

25. There was no disinformation in this case.

There were anti-Obrador ads run in Mexico suggesting a link between him and Chavez. Mexico's electoral authority has since pulled those ads. Since they were run Caldron had taken the lead in several polls, something that his party had not done for a long time. His lead was never large, though it did exist and was not a statistical error. His recent slip is due to a separate scandal, having nothing to do with Chavez.

[Bridget Burke]

19. Opponents branded him "the next Chavez"...

Perhaps he lost a few points--but he's come back up. I doubt that most Mexicans would see the association as a problem.

If he wins--I can just imagine the DUers chiming in "Chavez, Castro & Lopez Obrador"--brutal Commie thugs!

[MisterP]

27. I think it may've been the refusal to debate w/ the PAN candidate

on another note, can you imagine having TWO very conservative parties?

[Vidar]

6. Good to hear. Thanks for posting.

[zippy890]

8. Thanks JL, appreciated

like to hear about the 'widening lead'
:dem:

[Judi Lynn]

13. It's a real biggie, isn't it? Sure hope he wins. n/t

[donsu]

9. hooray! hope his lead grows

nt

[hogwyld]

10. When Obrador wins

Will there be a stream of leftist leaving the fascist leaning U.S. for Mexico????

[nick303]

26. I wouldn't hold my breath nt

[meganmonkey]

14. Good.

Good news, thanks Judi, for always being on top of this stuff (and for always spreading the truth to counter the propaganda spewed by the 'free'-market-corporatists around here!)

:toast:

[w4rma]

17. I've been following Mayor Obrador quite a bit recently. I like him, alot.

I really hope he wins because he's a very good guy.

[dysfunctional press]

18. calling el dieboldo...calling el dieboldo...

emergencia!

[Lisa0825]

20. YESSS!!!

I will be in Cozumel on election day! I hope he wins!

[High Plains]

21. Buy your liquor the day before. Bars and liquor stores will be

closed on election day, if I recall correctly.

[Lisa0825]

22. I already inquired about that.

From what a bar owner and a hotel owner tell me, the ban is only intended for locals, so many tourist-focused establishments will still be serving, especially hotel bars. I also heard that last year, Carlos and Charlies stayed open and paid the fine, figuring it was cheaper than losing the business.

[Judi Lynn]

23. Mexico's Lopez Obrador: A Common Man Bent on Change

Mexico's Lopez Obrador: A Common Man Bent on Change
Presidential front-runner Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador is seen as a salvation by some, a danger by others. One thing is sure: He knows politics.
By Héctor Tobar, Times Staff Writer
June 15, 2006

MEXICO CITY — The candidate has a certain sex appeal. Imagine a mestizo Bill Clinton: cappuccino-colored skin, a full head of white hair and a charismatic stage presence. Sometimes, his arrival at a campaign stop will provoke a scream from a woman who, a second later, realizes she's too old to be acting that way.

Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador is the candidate of the common man (and, clearly, of the common woman) in this year's presidential campaign. His critics call him an irresponsible populist who will ruin Mexico's precarious economic stability, but to millions of others, the 52-year-old standard-bearer for the leftist Democratic Revolution Party is hope incarnate, a warrior and father figure rolled into one.

Polls released this week show he has retaken the lead from conservative, free-market candidate Felipe Calderon.

Lopez Obrador fought off impeachment as mayor of Mexico City, took care of the capital's "little grandmothers" with a monthly subsidy check and launched the most ambitious transportation projects in the traffic-choked metropolis in a generation. Now he's on a crusade to bring the most ambitious social and economic reforms Mexico has seen in decades.

As mayor, he drove a white Nissan Tsuru, a variation of the Sentra sold in the U.S., and the kind of unassuming vehicle favored here by penny-pinching office workers. Today, while his opponents charter jets, Lopez Obrador crisscrosses the country on commercial flights and in a caravan of white SUVs.
(snip/...)

http://www.latimes.com/news/printedition/front/la-fg-amlo15jun15,1,640759.story?coll=la-headlines-frontpage&track=crosspromo

[rman]

24. oh boy, the threat of the good example is gaining ground

Why We Still Need To Be Anti-Imperialists
by Jean Bricmont
May 13, 2002
http://www.zmag.org/content/showarticle.cfm?ItemID=1905

...
Any country, specially a poor one, that manages to escape from the global domination system poses the "threat of the good example": it might be imitated by others, more important countries. That is why countries that are by themselves economically marginal, like Cuba, Vietnam, Nicaragua or even tiny Grenada have to be dealt with in one of two ways: either by imposing, through subversion and warfare, a government favorable to Western interests or by destroying them sufficiently so that any alternative development path that they might follow will be too harsh to be attractive.
...

[marjorieann]

28. Well

The problem with Obrador winning, is that the Mexican Congress is dominated by the PRI. Everyone thought Fox was going to be so great, and time after time he was shot down by the Congress. Nothing was ever accomplished, and reform was just a joke.

Obrador will face the same, if not worse situation, and then we are back to square one, where the people are so frustrated by PAN and PRD that they return to the PRI.

Case in point, Tijuana. Frustrated and screaming that PAN did not deliver, Tijuana elected Jorge Hank Rohn as Mayor, PRI. Of course, Rohn has undeniable connections to drug and money laundering, BUT what he did was have these HUGE Fiestas where he gave out toys to the kids, and money to the people.

Another aspect working against Obrador is that the emerging middle class is having a tough time. These folks are conservative, and what little comforts they have, they do not want to give up, nor do they support the likes of Commandante Marcos. They simply, like the rich elite, do not give one shit about the people. It's, this is mine and fuck you.

Obrador will also have to grease the palms of the drug cartels, who are in an out and out war to reclaim territory along the Border. Rohn went with the Arellanos, that area is pretty well cinched up. It's Nuevo Laredo, Ciudad Juarez that are up for grabs.

BTW, any PAN afficionados who have come out against the Cartels, have ended up dead. The last one was the newly elected Police Chief of Rosarito, shot down like a dog.

The only leftist that I have any "fe" in is Marcos.

[stepnw1f]

29. Excellente!

Liberalism spreading like wild-fire everywhere. And here once again. Just a matter of time.

[marjorieann]

30. Well, MAYBE

But it ain't gonna happen in Mexico. Maybe if we would legalize drugs and take the criminal element out of the equation - they run the show period.

The race to watch right now is Daniel Ortega in Nicaragua. And, even if he doesn't make it, the Congress in Nicaragua is majority left. Bolivia has thrown her support and Chavez also, to that election.

Prediction on Obrador: if elected, he will be assasinated, that is how it works here.

Another observation: Mexicans here do not like Chavez. They want the goodies, just like the ones all of you have in the USA. Oh the younger ones bounce around wearing Che tshirts, but if it came to helping out the Indians in the fields, and having a new shiny car, they'd take the car.

Sad but true, and if I'm wrong and have to eat my hat, put some chocolate on it.

[Robbien]

31. Question about oil/gas rights

What I don't understand is why Mexico doesn't have more wealth. Isn't natural resources under the Mexican constitution have to belong to the nation and cannot be privatized? Or has that been changed?

[marjorieann]

33. Good question

Mexico has lots of wealth, she rates third in the world for personnal wealth. So, we understand how Saudi Arabia works-huge amounts of wealth for very few and insufferable living conditions for the rest. Well, basically it is the same in Mexico. There are differences, but basically it is the same set up.

Corruption keeps the wealth in the hands of the very few.

Federal Income Taxes simply are not paid, therefore, the infrastructure doesn't work. Things which we take for granted, like paved streets, stop lights, Police and Firefighters, educational systems, just aren't there. Or, they exist, like the Police and Army, but are subsidized by drug money.

Even the telephone company, Telnor, is a monopoly run by one man,Carlos Slim Helu, and his Corporation, the Grupo Carso. Billioniares!!!!!

I guess you could make an analogy to the huge Rancheros, prior to Cardenas, where few owned all the land, the rest were peons.this, of course, is based on Spanish and French prior rule; the aristocrats and the poor slobs.

So, profits from Natural Resources end up in the pockets of the Managers of the Companies, and the local, state and federal government officials. Once in awhile, they will build a Malecon or two, and of course, the Federal Government is the culprit behind the tourists traps of Cancun and now, the proposed Escalera Nautica.

Don't ever think Mexico is lacking in Natural Resources, they are there in abundance, although not fully developed by a longshot, the ones which are,the profits simply do not go towards social development.

And, at the risk of being to lenghty, the ruling class of Mexico LIKES it this way: they don't educate or employ their people, they send 12 million of them up to the States to work while they count their gold.

Here are a few references:

http://www.law.du.edu/naturalresources/Individual%20Countries/Mexico.htm


http://www.nigc.org/eia/mexico.asp

http://www.photius.com/countries/mexico/economy/mexico_economy_petroleum.html

It's a battle, don't get me wrong, there are many justice minded Mexicans trying to change and implement the system, trying to save the environment (Wildcoast, Mexican Greenpeace) By the time they reach 40, however, they look like they are 65. So, there is a prevalent attitude of
ni modo. (what can be done? Aye, nada, so we go on with our lives)

You know, an excellent book which really is helpful in understanding the "character" of the Mexican people is, "NTC's Dictionary of Mexican Cultural Code Words", by Lafayette De Mente. I turned my neighbor on to this book, he had been living here for over thirty years, and he gasped and said, "This is IT !! This is exactly what I was trying to explain to my kids about the Mexican people and their culture!" Anyway, you might want to check it out.

[ProudDad]

34. Then let's hope that Marcos and the Zapatistas win

right?

Along with Venezuela, they are the one of the best experiments with people's self-governance currently going on.

I personally think that in all countries it will take a revolution from the working class and it probably won't be "peaceful".

[marjorieann]

36. You know

Marcos had disappeared sort of, was keeping a low profile up until the riots just a few weeks back. He was in the process of making a tour around the country, giving speeches - wanted to catch him in TJ but this has been cancelled.

Up to now he has not endorsed Obrador. The Zapatistas have made inroads into mainstream society by establishing schools. They are truly dedicated. In Ensenada they are continually hassled by the Policia. These schools are nothing like what Chavez has established, heavily indoctrinated, but instead, they teach Mexican history ( glossed over in Mexican schools), language and computer skills so the kids can get jobs.

Yes, I think there is alot of potential for Marcos, but he needs to tread carefully. He is enormously popular with the people, and remember what happened to Digna Ochoa, the human rights advocate who belittled the Drug Cartels.

So far, I trust him.

The Mexicans say of Chavez:"Well, he does alot of things that are right, but alot of things that are wrong." Kind of how I feel too. I think Marcos is way more stable than Chavez, but you are right, any real longterm change will have to come from the working class. OOPS, Mexico has sent her working class up to the States.

[Judi Lynn]

37. It would be helpful to Venezuela-concerned DU'ers to know what you've

learned which leads you to the conclusion Hugo Chavez is an unstable man.

If you have any links, it would be helpful to see them.

[AnOhioan]

38. Update (Lead now 4 pts.)

Jun 20, 2006 — MEXICO CITY (Reuters) Mexico leftist's lead grows to 4 points in new poll


Mexico's leftist presidential candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador extended his lead over his conservative rival to 4 percentage points in a poll published in the Excelsior newspaper on Tuesday.

With the July 2 ballot looming, the poll gave Lopez Obrador 36.5 percent of the potential vote, compared to 32.5 percent for his closest rival, ruling party candidate Felipe Calderon.

More at http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory?id=2096646