STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday 5 June

[ozymandius]

Monday June 5, 2006

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 961 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 1990 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 1690 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1651
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 6
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON June 2, 2006

Dow... 11,247.87 -12.41 (-0.11%)
Nasdaq... 2,219.41 -0.45 (-0.02%)
S&P 500... 1,288.22 +2.51 (+0.20%)
Gold future... 641.00 +7.50 (+1.17%)
30-Year Bond 5.09% -0.11 (-2.06%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.99% -0.11 (-2.23%)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver


PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Tim W. Wood

THE DOW REPORT
A Brief Update on the Dogs of the Dow and the Top Ten Index

It has been a few months since we looked at the “Dogs of the Dow.” For those who may not be familiar with the “Dogs of the Dow” they are a “portfolio” of such that is based on the Top Ten dividend yielding stocks within the Dow 30 as of January 1st of each year.

-cut-

When we combine the facts that we still have the Primary Trend according to Dow theory negative, the Top Ten as well as other important non-confirmations on the table, weakening breadth as the indicator above suggests, the implications of Dow theory phasing and the cyclical implications that are setting up, this remains an unhealthy sign and is indicative of a major change coming. In the short-term, things have turned positive once again. All the while the “Liquidity Pump” is in high gear trying to hold back the tide. The Liquidity Pump will not hold back the forces of nature forever and we are going to enter a window this summer in which this could all begin to change. Remember, I agreed with Jim that we would first see the gain and then the pain in 2006. So far, we have been right on the gain. What I’m trying to say here is that the time for the pain is drawing near.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

2. One report today

10:00 AM ISM Services May
Briefing Forecast 60.0
Market Expects 60.1
Prior 63.0

[UpInArms]

35. May ISM Services Report @ 60.1% vs 63% in April

10:02 AM ET 6/5/06 U.S. MAY ISM SERVICES JOBS 58.0% VS 56.5% IN APRIL

10:03 AM ET 6/5/06 U.S. MAY ISM SERVICES NEW ORDERS 59.6% VS 64.6% IN APRIL

10:02 AM ET 6/5/06 U.S. MAY ISM SERVICES PRICES 77.5% VS 70.5% IN APRIL

10:01 AM ET 6/5/06 U.S. MAY ISM SERVICES SLIGHTLY BELOW CONSENSUS 60.5%

10:01 AM ET 6/5/06 U.S. MAY ISM SERVICES 60.1% VS 63.0% IN APRIL

[UpInArms]

39. spinning numbers

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-06-05T140456Z_01_N05285601_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-SERVICES-URGENT.XML

NEW YORK, June 5 (Reuters) - The giant U.S. service sector kept growing in May but did so at a slower pace as a sharp jump in prices paid deterred some activity, according to a report on Monday.

The Institute for Supply Management's services index eased to 60.1 in May, in line with forecasts and down from 63.0 in April. A number above 50 indicates growth in the sector.

The survey's prices-paid index spiked to 77.5 from 70.5, while the jobs component rose to 58.0 from to 56.5. Demand for new orders slipped to 59.6 from 64.6.

The services sector makes up about 80 percent of U.S. economic activity, including businesses like restaurants, hotels, hair salons, banks and airlines.

[54anickel]

49. 80 freakin' percent. And what percentage is gubbermint jobs? So the

mighty US has this giant sector where we just continue to serve each other? With mostly borrowed money from foreigners? And we're the "super power"? Exactly how does that work? The American dream indeed, all this "wonderful life" with "other people's money". Ain't it just grand - what a freakin' scam.

[UpInArms]

53. Just more proof that "America is Most Powerful Nation" is a myth

if our economy is 80% service.

How many people can be paid to change bedpans? :eyes:

[WhiteTara]

55. you're forgetting the sex industry

now there is a growth market.

[ozymandius]

3. Oil prices jump on Iran energy threat

SINGAPORE - Oil prices jumped Monday in reaction to a threat by Iran's supreme leader that his nation could jeopardize the world's oil supply if the West punished Tehran over its nuclear program.

Light, sweet crude for July delivery rose $1.02 to $73.35 a barrel in Asian electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, midafternoon in Singapore. The contract rose Friday to $72.33 following the kidnapping of eight foreigners working on a drilling rig off the coast of Nigeria. The workers were released Sunday.

July Brent crude futures on London's ICE Futures rose $1.03 to $72.06 per barrel.

Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has the final say on all state matters, addressed Western nations in a speech Sunday, saying: "If you make any mistake (punish or attack Iran), definitely shipment of energy from this region will be seriously jeopardized."

more

[ozymandius]

4. Running on Empty

-cut-

For the moment, station owner Barry O'Brien can afford to provide the savings. But red ink has been mounting since last year, when O'Brien left the branded market after 40 years with Mobil, then Arco. Starting out on his own, he installed matter-of-fact signs that read: "O'Brien Station. Snacks. Repairs. Gasoline."

-cut-

Because of huge spikes in the prices they pay for tanker loads of fuel, stations not affiliated with oil refiners on average have sold gasoline at a loss for eight of the first 22 weeks of 2006, according to Oil Price Information Service, a Wall, N.J., company that tracks fuel markets. Most brand-name stations buy gasoline directly from refiners at undisclosed prices, but those that bought fuel outside of such contracts on average sold gasoline at a loss for two of the 22 weeks, the data service said.

-cut-

In general, service stations of all types — branded and unbranded — struggle when gasoline prices are on the rise. That's because wholesale prices tend to rise faster than pump prices. In addition, dealers have to pay more for the fuel and their profits get squeezed by higher credit card fees because more people use their credit cards when prices are high.

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-indies4jun04,1,187387.story?coll=la-headlines-business

[UpInArms]

14. Crude rallies past $73 on Iran threat to halt shipments

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?dist=newsfinder&siteid=mktw&guid=%7BBEBB2B9D%2DBC07%2D49E0%2D8C5E%2D5CFC9CE02A47%7D&symbol=

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- A warning from the world's fourth-largest oil exporter, Iran, that it may stop shipments if it is provoked sent oil prices higher in early Monday trade.

Crude for July delivery advanced $1.12 to $73.45 a barrel, having earlier touched $73.84 a barrel, its highest level since May 12.

Over the weekend, Iran's supreme leader warned the U.S. that actions it takes could result in Iran halting shipments from the region.

"If you make a wrong move regarding Iran, definitely the energy flow in this region will be seriously endangered," Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned on state television, the BBC reported.

"This shows that he is well aware of what can cause price instability and wants the world to know Iran can certainly cause turmoil if provoked," said John Person, president of Nationalfutures.com.

<snip>

The incentive package is part of a broader effort to solve the dispute diplomatically, but Khamenei's words suggest Iran has not ruled out some sort of U.S.-backed military action against it.

...more...

[stop the bleeding]

15. thanks guys - can't wait for it to get to $85 and Good Morning

everyone :)

[Roland99]

19. I may have to push my car for my summer vacation!

[Danascot]

24. On Leno recently:

Gov. Schwartzenegger was seen having his Hummer towed recently. Nothing wrong with it, the tow truck gets better mileage.

[Roland99]

77. he he

[UpInArms]

36. Crude Opens @ $73.35 bbl

10:00 AM ET 6/5/06 CRUDE FUTURES OPEN UP $1.02 AT $73.35 A BARREL

[Ghost Dog]

37. PetroCanada buys into US firm's Syria project (Sanctions don't stop oil)

DU Thread: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x2321900

PetroCanada is to buy into the US company Marathon Oil that is developing two oil fields in Syria.

"PetroCanada and Marathon Oil have initialed an agreement" to this effect, the economic newspaper Al-Iqtissadiya reported Sunday, quoting the Canadian company's director in Syria, Hisham Yasagi.

On May 8, Marathon Oil signed a 125-million-dollar contract with Syrian companies to develop the production of oil and gas in two oil fields near Homs in the centre of the country.

<snip>

Syria is in the grip of US-imposed sanctions, but international oil- and gas-prospecting companies are exempt and still operate in the country.

<snip>

More: http://www.turkishpress.com/news.asp?id=126807

[54anickel]

69. USA out-flanked in Eurasia energy politics?

http://www.321energy.com/editorials/engdahl/engdahl060506.html

Curiously and quietly the United States is being out-flanked in its now-obvious strategy of controlling major oil and energy sources of the Persian Gulf, Central Asia Caspian Basin, Africa and beyond.

The US’s global energy control strategy, it’s now clear to most, was the actual reason for the highly costly regime change in Iraq, euphemistically dubbed ‘democracy’ by Washington. George W. Bush restated his democracy mantra as recently as May 28 at the West Point military graduating ceremony where he declared that America's safety depends on an aggressive push for democracy, especially in the Middle East. ‘This is only the beginning,’ Bush said. ‘The message has spread from Damascus to Tehran that the future belongs to freedom, and we will not rest until the promise of liberty reaches every people in every nation.’

If the trend of recent events continues, it won’t be Bush-style democracy that is spreading, but rather, Russian and Chinese influence over major oil and gas energy supplies.

The quest for energy control has informed Washington’s support for high-risk ‘color revolutions’ in Georgia, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Belarus and Kyrgystan in recent months. It lies behind US activity in the Western Africa Gulf of Guinea states, as well as in Sudan, source of 7% of China oil import. It lies behind US policy vis-à-vis Hugo Chavez’ Venezuela and Evo Morales’ Bolivia.

In recent months, however, this strategy of global energy dominance, a strategic US priority, has shown signs of producing just the opposite: a kind of ‘coalition of the unwilling,’ states who increasingly see no other prospect, despite traditional animosities, but to cooperate to oppose what they see as a US push to control it all, their energy future security.

Some in Washington are beginning to realize they might have been too clever by about half, as is evident in recent public statements to both China and Russia, two nations whose cooperation in some form is essential to the success of the global US energy project.

more...

[Ghost Dog]

82. Ya don't say! Jeeez (Buddah, Post-Marx and Muhammed)... n/t

(ed. without forgetting all other, deep, cultures, of course ;-) ).

[UpInArms]

88. Crude closes @ $72.60 bbl

2:53 PM ET 6/5/06 CRUDE-OIL FUTURES CLOSE UP 27 CENTS AT $72.60 A BARREL

[ozymandius]

5. Cooling economy creates new conundrum for Federal Reserve

WASHINGTON (AFP) - Clear signs of a cooling trend in the US economy have created a new conundrum for the Federal Reserve, which faces a tough decision in the coming weeks on how far it needs to hike interest rates.

The latest data showed the US economy added a modest 75,000 new jobs in May, well below market expectations and lower than what experts say is needed to absorb new labor market entrants.

At the same time, inflation data has been running hotter than expected, and recent minutes from the May 10 Federal Reserve meeting suggested central bank policymakers are preoccupied with keeping prices in check.

"There are growing signs of a mild form of stagflation -- below trend growth combined with above-target inflation," said Ethan Harris, chief US economist at Lehman Brothers.

more

[ozymandius]

6. Weak jobs may mean Fed brakes -- for slow economy

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Friday's anemic jobs report shows why investors should be careful what they wish for.

Sometimes they just might get it.

For months, stock investors have been betting that the U.S. equity market will take off once the Federal Reserve stops raising interest rates. That has driven many market players to take the view that any sign of weakness in the economy is good news for stocks because borrowing costs will ease, helping corporate bottom lines.

-cut-

Weaker job growth may mean a weaker business environment and could spell trouble ahead for corporate profits. If the economy's growth is slowing, investors may have been betting in the wrong direction.

"The anticipation is that the Fed is going to be stepping aside in June, and the equity market's kneejerk reaction is that the Fed stepping aside is a good thing," said Paul Nolte, director of investments at Hinsdale Associates in Hinsdale, Illinois.

more

[modrepub]

9. Wall St hates Main St

Any time there's bad news for the grubs; fewer jobs, corporate layoffs, outsourcing, cuts in benefits, fewer unions, higher worker productivity (i.e. getting people to spend more hours at work for the same pay), negative savings rates, inflated tax breaks for the rich, it's party time on Wall Street. The bastards fiddle while the rest of us burn. A pox on them all!

[UpInArms]

13. Weak Jobs Report Could Spark Market Rally

http://abcnews.go.com/Business/story?id=2033646&page=1&business=true&business=true&business=true

June 2, 2006 — You might think today's lackluster jobs report wouldn't leave much for the Bush administration to crow about. But low numbers aren't standing in the way of a little positive spin.

The tiny addition of 75,000 new jobs took a back seat to the one-tenth of a percent drop in the nation's unemployment rate (now at 4.6 percent) as outgoing Treasury Secretary John Snow took to the airwaves in a number of live television interviews after this mornings report. Snow told interviewers that the overall tone of the jobs market is strong and emphasized the fact that unemployment hasn't been this low in five years.

What he didn't say is that this slight drop in unemployment is well within the survey's margin of error and was characterized by the Bureau of Labor Statistics commissioner as "essentially unchanged."

House Speaker Dennis Hastert joined in the economic pep club chorus with an e-mailed statement to reporters.

"The American economy continues to create jobs that are putting paychecks in the pockets of American workers," read the Hastert statement. "We have seen strong job growth recently, with the U.S. economy creating more than 2 million jobs in the last year."

But if you check Hastert's math with the official figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, you'll see he's a bit off.

You'd need a 13-month year to get to more than 2 million new jobs. From June 2005 to May 2006 (the generally accepted 12-month year) the economy has added just 1.896 million jobs.

But bad math is probably just confusing the issue, as is the administration's fear of acknowledging a slowing trend in hiring.

...more...

Lies, spin and intentionally malicious fiscal policies. :mad:

[54anickel]

34. Good morning Modrepub and welcome to the SMW. Looks like

you might have skipped your re-edumacation camp trip. Repeat after me:
"What's good for the corporation is good for me."
"When my company makes more money, I make more money."
"When Wall Street makes more money, I make more money."
"The environment is secondary - as we all make more money, we pay more taxes so the government will be able to afford the clean up."
"As jobs are outsourced, new and better jobs are created to take their place - it's just a simple matter of training and education."

They'll also teach you the pledge to mediocrity which will reinforce the notion that quality is job 7. "Just ship it!" :evilgrin: :hi:

[modrepub]

44. Sarcasm Has No Bounds

Hey I'm a pessimist by nature. Sorry I must have missed the edumacation camp you just mention. I must have overslept; the brochure looked like crap anyway and from what you're telling me I would have been stuck having a really bad time.

I don't want Wall Street's Kool-Aid and I'm tired of them trying to get me to drink it. I'm hoping others will eventually feel the same way so that all of those sorry asses have to actually wake up and go to a real job like the rest of us do or at least spend two hours a week pushing a lawn mower in 90 degree heat (like me)! Hey I can still dream in this country can't I?

Ok, I'm done with my rant. Can someone please give me a cookie (and not the ones for my web browser!) and take me back to the asylum? Thanx...

[UpInArms]

45. I'll put a call in to Nurse Ratchet to assist with the snacks

(edited for spulling)

[Ghost Dog]

41. Yup. Roaring 'Twenties revisited... (and we all know what happened next).

Hi there, modrepub :hi:

Dancing on the edge of time.

(- ed. to add the Leonard Cohen line)

[54anickel]

54. The Greater Depression—an Update

http://www.prudentbear.com/archive_comm_article.asp?category=Guest+Commentary&content_idx=55139

It’s been said that if you spend 15 minutes a year thinking about the economy, you’re wasting 13 minutes. That’s generally true. But as an amateur historian, I can’t help myself. And I’m forced to believe that this is a time when the subject is worth some real thought.

My view is that the longest, and certainly most important, trend in history is the ascent of man. I have little doubt that it will not only continue but accelerate. But that doesn’t mean there won’t be nasty setbacks along the way. As I have said before, possibly the best definition of a depression is a period when most people’s standard of living drops significantly. You can also define it as a period when distortions in the economy and misallocations of capital are liquidated. The distortions are almost always the result of government intervention in the economy, through things like taxes, regulation and currency inflation. Those are the factors that caused the unpleasantness that began in 1929. Since the government is exponentially more powerful and invasive today than it was in either the 1920s or the 1970s, I expect the consequences will be much worse this time around. Things could have come unglued, and almost did, back in the 1970s. I don’t see how we’ll dodge the bullet this time. Although that’s not really a good analogy, in that, for reasons we don’t have time to explore in depth, a depression is probably inevitable this time.

The only serious question in my mind is whether it will be essentially deflationary in nature, as it was the case in the U.S. in the 1930s, or inflationary like in Germany in the 1920s. My guess is the latter because the government is so much more powerful today. Or it could actually be both at once, in different sectors of the economy.

How?

Inflation could drive interest rates to 20%. This would collapse the bond and real estate markets, wiping out trillions of dollars of purchasing power—which is deflationary. Meanwhile, that same inflation doubles the cost of food and fuel. In other words, the opposite of what we’ve mostly had for the last generation, when we had “good” inflation in stocks, bonds and property, but stable or dropping prices in “cost of living” items. This time the pattern could reverse, which would be a nightmare for most people.

more...

[54anickel]

74. The System in Crisis

http://www.counterpunch.org/montague06032006.html

big snip>

** The political party that controls the White House, the Congress, and much of the judiciary now owes its electoral success to a large group of people who believe the world is going to end soon, which may make earthly problems seem unimportant to many of them. For the first time in American history, a religious party now controls the government.<1>

snip>

Unfortunately, we are already getting a preview of how "the system" will respond to slowing growth. The rate of economic growth (measured by <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gdp>GDP) has been slowing for the past 35 years,<2,3,4,5,6> and the system's response has not been pretty. Without going into a lot of detail, I believe much of what passes for "the news" each day can best be explained as "system responses" to slowed growth.

snip>

The system has responded to these realities in the following ways:

System response No. 1: Easing Credit

snip>

System response No. 11: Expanding and Discrediting Government

Given the need to distribute the economic pie in new ways, discrediting government has become a necessary political goal because government has occasionally intervened on behalf of "the little people" against "the big people."

Traditionally, government has made modest attempts to level the playing field for everyone, in keeping with the slogan, "With liberty and justice for all." Without basic economic security for families and individuals, neither liberty nor justice is possible.

To his credit, George W. Bush has provided real innovation here. Previous Republican theorists wanted to shrink government so small you could drown it in a bathtub. Mr. Bush recognized that a large inept government was far more useful that a small government, from the viewpoint of those aiming as a matter of high principle and national necessity to transfer a larger portion of the pie from working people and the middle class to the super rich.

lots more....

[Ghost Dog]

62. Ah, I apologise: I was mixing up two different songs.

The one I had in mind was Leonard Cohen's:

http://www.sing365.com/music/lyric.nsf/DANCE-ME-TO-THE-END-OF-LOVE-lyrics-Leonard-Cohen/B6319E8249762A8848256AF000289108

DANCE ME TO THE END OF LOVE

Dance me to your beauty with a burning violin
Dance me through the panic 'til I'm gathered safely in
Lift me like an olive branch and be my homeward dove
Dance me to the end of love
Dance me to the end of love

Oh let me see your beauty when the witnesses are gone
Let me feel you moving like they do in Babylon
Show me slowly what I only know the limits of
Dance me to the end of love
Dance me to the end of love
Dance me to the wedding now, dance me on and on
Dance me very tenderly and dance me very long
We're both of us beneath our love, we're both of us above
Dance me to the end of love
Dance me to the end of love

Dance me to the children who are asking to be born
Dance me through the curtains that our kisses have outworn
Raise a tent of shelter now, though every thread is torn
Dance me to the end of love

Dance me to your beauty with a burning violin
Dance me through the panic till I'm gathered safely in
Touch me with your naked hand or touch me with your glove
Dance me to the end of love
Dance me to the end of love
Dance me to the end of love

...

By way of contrast, Hawkwind's more simplistic, but perhaps (in musical form) no less powerful (or, indeed, contemporaneously apposite) lyrics are:

Standing At The Edge
Artist: Hawkwind
Album: Warrior On The Edge Of Time
--

We're standing on the edge
The edge of time
And it is dark, so dark on the edge of time
And we're tired of making love
We are the lost, we are the ravaged
We are the unkind
We are the soldiers at the edge of time
And we're tired of making love
Where are our children
Where are our fathers
Where is our desire
And it's cold, so cold on the edge of time
Where is our joy
Where is our hope
Where is our fire
And it's cold, so cold on the edge of time
We are the the lost, we are the forgotten
We are the undying
We are the soldiers at the edge of time
The veterans of a thousand psychic wars
We are the soldiers at the edge of time
The victims of the savage truth
We are the soldiers at the edge of time
And we're tired of making love

...

[Ghost Dog]

96. Two students in Tehran

(photographer: Xavier Cervera; published by El País (Spanish Newspaper Magazine)):

[Ghost Dog]

117. Err, error: That should read:

photographer: Xavier Cervera; published by La Vanguardia (Catalan (Barcelona) Newspaper Magazine).

(Lo siento).

[54anickel]

63. US groups boost share of economic pie

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/a73094d4-f3f8-11da-9dab-0000779e2340.html

US companies have increased their share of the economic pie at a faster rate over the past five years than at any time since the second world war.

Recent government figures show that profits from current production as a share of national income have risen from 7 per cent in mid-2001 to 12.2 per cent at the start of this year. This rate of growth is unprecedented since collection of these figures began in 1947.

Profits have climbed by 123 per cent over the same period, soaring from $714.5bn (€552.57bn, £378.89bn) to $1,595.4bn – also the fastest increase since records began. Other official data have shown that profit growth by manufacturing companies, often seen as one of the weakest sectors, has outstripped the rest of the economy. The figures suggest corporate America is enjoying one of its best periods despite more competition from low-cost countries and tougher corporate governance and disclosure rules.

Even during the boom of the late 1990s, companies only managed a 90 per cent increase in profits over a four and a half year period. Annual data on profits go back to 1929; there were faster rates of profit growth in the 1930s, as the US emerged from the great depression.

snip>

As profits have increased as a share of national income, the return going to workers has been in decline, falling from 58.6 per cent in the middle of 2001 to 56.2 per cent in the first quarter of 2006. Paul Donovan, a global economist at UBS, believes the negotiating position of US workers may have been weakened by globalisation, giving companies the upper hand.

more...

[ozymandius]

7. Murakami Says He May Be Indicted for Insider Trading

June 5 (Bloomberg) -- Yoshiaki Murakami, Japan's leading shareholder activist, said he may be charged with insider trading in connection with the nation's biggest hostile takeover attempt, forcing him to cede control of a $3.6 billion investment fund.

``It's my fault, I broke the law,'' Murakami, 46, said at a press briefing in Tokyo that was broadcast nationwide. ``I have signed an affidavit to that effect.'' He denied intentionally violating securities regulations.

Tokyo prosecutors are investigating whether Murakami last year traded Nippon Broadcasting System Inc. shares knowing that Livedoor Co. was planning a takeover bid. Murakami's probable indictment comes four months after Livedoor executives including founder Takafumi Horie were arrested in an unrelated fraud case.

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000006&sid=aUX8Dr3kAQvE&refer=home

[UpInArms]

16. Another Japanese corporate raider bites the dust

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20060605/bs_afp/japanfinancestockscrimemurakami

TOKYO (AFP) - Japan's best-known fund manager has admitted to insider trading in connection with a takeover battle led by scandal-hit firm Livedoor in the latest downfall among a new breed of corporate raiders.

Yoshiaki Murakami, a former industry ministry bureaucrat, held an impromptu press conference to own up to violating the securities and exchange law and said he would quit fund management entirely.

Murakami, who once led Japan's first ever hostile takeover bid, was later arrested, according to prosecutors.

"I, as a professional of security trade, deeply apologize that I heard the information (about Livedoor's intentions)," he earlier told reporters Monday, bowing deeply.

"It is 100 percent certain that I will be indicted," he added.

The case has sent ripples through the Japanese stockmarket on concern that the arrest could spook overseas investors who have already been pulling out funds from the Tokyo market recently.

...more...

He's sorry he heard of Livedoor's intentions - not that he profited from it :eyes:

[Ghost Dog]

27. Tokyo stocks dip amid jitters about Murakami Fund, dollar's fall

http://asia.news.yahoo.com/060605/kyodo/d8i1u31o0.html

(Kyodo) Tokyo stocks declined Monday amid jitters about investment fund mogul Yoshiaki Murakami's admitted insider trading and the U.S. dollar's fall against the yen in the wake of the release of disappointing U.S. employment data for May.

The 225-issue Nikkei Stock Average fell 121.00 points, or 0.77 percent, to 15,668.31. The Tokyo Stock Price Index of all First Section issues on the Tokyo Stock Exchange dropped 11.19 points, or 0.70 percent, to 1,594.92.

The market was pressured by selling aimed at locking in profits from Friday's share rises that lifted the benchmark Nikkei by nearly 300 points, brokers said.

Export-oriented automaker and high-tech issues were sold due to the dollar's fall to the 111 yen level following the release on Friday of a smaller-than-expected increase in U.S. nonfarm payrolls for May. A weaker dollar lessens the value of Japanese exporters' dollar-denominated profits when repatriated.

<snip>

The TSE's Second Section index gained 24.68 points, or 0.57 percent, to 4,387.24 on a volume of 61.42 million shares. In Osaka, the near-term June Nikkei 225 index futures contract dropped 110 points to 15,680.

/more detail...

[Ghost Dog]

29. JGBs surge as Treasuries rise on weak U.S.job data

http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?type=comktNews&storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20060605:MTFH53213_2006-06-05_07-19-11_T235236&pageNumber=0&imageid=&cap=&sz=13&WTModLoc=HybArt-C1-ArticlePage2

TOKYO, June 5 (Reuters) - Japanese government bond prices jumped on Monday, tracking a rise in U.S. Treasuries in the previous session after weak employment data boosted expectations the Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates this month.

JGBs have followed the U.S. market for the past several sessions as investors seek clues about the direction of U.S. monetary policy, which could also affect the course of Japanese interest rates.

<snip>

The lead June 10-year JGB futures contract <2JGBv1>, which opened trading up 0.40 point from Friday's close of 133.03, ended the afternoon session up 0.48 point at 133.51. The benchmark 10-year yield <JP10YTN=JBTC> was down 4.5 basis points at the intraday low of 1.860 percent as of 0644 GMT.

The two-year JGB yield <JP2YTN=JBTC> fell 4.5 basis points to 0.815 percent, sliding further away from 0.9 percent hit on Thursday, the maturity's highest level since 1998 according to available records.

EYES ON BOJ

Some analysts said if the Fed were to take a pause from its two-year tightening cycle this month and if the BOJ was seen to be in a rush to raise interest rates, it could put pressure on the yen to rise, a development the BOJ might not welcome. But unless the yen surges, the BOJ will probably lift interest rates as early as July even if the Fed holds off on raising interest rates this month, traders and analysts said.

/more...

[Ghost Dog]

31. Hong Kong shares rise on mainland telecoms

http://investing.reuters.co.uk/investing/MarketReportArticle.aspx?type=hongkongMktRpt&storyID=2006-06-05T045834Z_01_HKG234073_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-HONGKONG-STOCKS-UPDATE-2.XML

HONG KONG, June 5 (Reuters) - Hong Kong stocks rose 0.71 percent on Monday, led by mainland telecoms stocks such as China Mobile (Hong Kong) Ltd., (0941.HK: Quote, Profile, Research) and as funds previously tied up in Bank of China's (3988.HK: Quote, Profile, Research) IPO flowed back into the market.

Mainland financial issues were the morning's most active shares as China Life Insurance Co. Ltd. (China) (2628.HK: Quote, Profile, Research) and China Construction Bank Corp. (0939.HK: Quote, Profile, Research) helped the China Enterprises index <.HSCE> rise 1.54 percent.

The benchmark Hang Seng index <.HSI> was up 113.65 points at 16,026.36 by lunch. The China Enterprises index of H-shares <.HSCE>, or Hong Kong-listed shares in mainland companies, closed at 6,704.94.

"The market is in rebound, which may last for a week," said Linus Yip, strategist at First Shanghai Securities. "U.S interest rates are still trending upward, China's monetary controls are ongoing -- nothing has changed, so people are trading on the rebound."

/more detail...

[UpInArms]

8. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 83.85 Change -0.08 (-0.10%)

Coming Up Short

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/special_report/special_reports/Coming_Up_Short_1149502042675.html

As is almost always the case during NFP week, all the action happened on Friday. NFP’s missed. Badly. The 170K figure was constantly revised downward to as little as 110K by some banks in the Street, but even dollar bears worst estimates were too high as the number printed at 75K and sent the EUR/USD above the 1.2900 figure in a matter of seconds.

The rest of the data was of little help to dollar longs as ISM Manufacturing dropped to 54.4 from 55.8 projected while Productivity, Pending Homes Sales and Factory Orders all missed their mark. Chicago Fed’s Moskow, who is not a voting member this year was on the wires Friday saying that inflation is up since March and “Fed’s expectations are on the line”, but no one paid heed. The sentiment shifted dramatically towards the pause scenario. In fact, if the Fed were to hike in June, it is not necessarily a given that the market would view the move as dollar positive, as many players may view this as more of an act of desperation rather than one of strength.

Next week the calendar remains essentially barren with only today’s ISM Non-Manufacturing and Friday Trade Balance as releases of any consequence. The only major positive for dollar bulls is the fact that positioning is in their favor and EUR longs reached records highs on IMM. Still, in one way markets such positioning can be right rather than wrong. Clearly, 1.3000 remains within reach.

...more...

Dollar backtracks as Fed pause seen more likely

http://today.reuters.com/misc/PrinterFriendlyPopup.aspx?type=businessNews&storyID=2006-06-05T023056Z_01_T214763_RTRUKOC_0_US-MARKETS-FOREX.xml

TOKYO (Reuters) - The dollar slipped toward a one-year low against the euro on Monday after surprisingly soft U.S. employment data last week helped squelch expectations for the Federal Reserve to raise overnight interest rates again this month.

The 75,000 jobs created in May was far short of forecasts for a 175,000 increase, providing more evidence of slowing economic growth that could cool core inflation now running at the upper end of the comfort zone of some Fed officials.

The central bank's 16 straight increases in short-term rates to 5 percent had boosted the dollar's yield advantage in 2005 and fired a rally in the U.S. currency.

But anticipation of a coming Fed pause, along with worries that Washington wants a weaker currency to help curtail its massive trade deficit, have all undermined the dollar this year.

...more...

UK: The sliding dollar will be our problem

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,8210-2211069,00.html

A 99.5 per cent pay cut and an in-tray full of trouble. You have to admire the guts and self- sacrifice of Henry Paulson, Goldman Sachs’s soon-to- depart chairman, in accepting President Bush’s enticing offer to become his new Treasury Secretary.

Mr Paulson’s spirit of service looks all the more impressive given that he will be easing himself into the Treasury Secretary’s chair just as the American economy’s problems in three key areas — growth, inflation and the dollar — are reaching the trickiest of conjunctions.

And the Goldman chief’s decision starts to look almost masochistic when one considers that most of the power to influence how these problems play out lies not with him, but with his new colleague Ben Bernanke, the Federal Reserve Chairman.

For Mr Bernanke, these are edgy times, too. Markets have worked themselves into a flap over fears both of rising inflation and of weaker growth. So the Fed is at a crunch point over its next move of interest rates. How it responds will also be crucial in determining the future path of a vulnerable dollar.

One big headache for Mr Paulson may well be that the clever but still newish Fed Chairman looks likely to prioritise bolstering his inflation-fighting credibility over preserving strong growth.

...more...

[UpInArms]

10. Economy may be heading for less sunny days

WASHINGTON - After years of talking about the Goldilocks economy — not too hot and not too cold — all of a sudden it appears the little rascal just got mugged by the three bears. While the economy began the year growing at a strong pace, activity seems to have hit the skids in the spring.

Factory orders fell in April. The five-year housing boom is cooling, with home sales falling and price gains slowing. In the biggest shocker of all, the government reported Friday that businesses created just 75,000 new jobs in May — 100,000 fewer than expected.

If the onslaught of weaker economic data was not bad enough, there also are signs that long-dormant inflation may be starting to be a problem, and not just in the pain from $3 per gallon gasoline.

The relentless rise in crude oil to above $70 per barrel seems to be starting to trigger price problems outside of energy. The core rate of inflation, excluding food and energy, is now above the 2 percent upper limit favored by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and his colleagues.

Slowing economic growth and rising inflation raise the specter of stagflation. This dreaded combination of economic stagnation and inflation had the country in its grips for more than a decade through the 1970s and early 1980s, bringing grief to the presidencies of Richard Nixon, Gerald Ford and Jimmy Carter.

...more...

[Tempest]

47. UpInArms, do you have a link to this story?

I'd like to read the entire article.

Thanks.

[54anickel]

50. Here's a link...

http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/business/1310AP_Cloudy_Economy.html

[UpInArms]

51. here's that link, Tempest - I think I posted that one in my sleep this a.m

:blush:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060604/ap_on_bi_ge/cloudy_economy

[54anickel]

57. Owe me a coke! n/t

[UpInArms]

64. just for you, 54anickel!

[Ghost Dog]

68. Make that "light"

... and easy on the asparteme ...

[UpInArms]

75. Aspartame Gate: When Donald Rumsfeld was CEO of Searle

http://www.newmediaexplorer.org/sepp/2004/05/07/aspartame_gate_when_donald_rumsfeld_was_ceo_of_searle.htm

I would like to call your attention to when Donald Rumsfeld was CEO of Searle, manufacturers of aspartame. For 16 years the FDA refused to approve it, not only because its not safe but because they wanted the company indicted for fraud. Both U.S. Prosecutors hired on with the defense team and the statute of limitations expired. They were Sam Skinner and William Conlon. Skinner went on to become Secretary of Transportation squelching the cries of the pilots who were by now having seizures on this seizure triggering drug, aspartame, and then Chief of Staff under President Bush's father. Some of these people reach high places. Even Supreme Justice Clarence Thomas is a former Monsanto attorney. (Monsanto bought Searle in l985, and sold it a few years ago). When Ashcroft became Attorney General, Thompson from King and Spalding Attorneys (another former Monsanto attorney) became deputy under Ashcroft. (Attorneys for NutraSweet and Coke).

However, the FDA still refused to allow NutraSweet on the market. It is a deadly neurotoxic drug masquerading as an additive. It interacts with all antidepressants, L-dopa, Coumadin, hormones, insulin, all cardiac medication, and many others. It also is a chemical hypersensitization drug so that it interacts with vaccines, other toxins, other unsafe sweeteners like Splenda which has a chlorinated base like DDT and can cause autoimmune disease. It has a synergistic and additive effect with MSG. (www.truthinlabeling.org). Both being excitotoxins, the aspartic acid in aspartame, and MSG, the glutamate people were found using aspartame as the placebo for MSG studies, even before it was approved. The FDA has known this for a quarter of a century and done nothing even though its against the law. Searle went on to build a NutraSweet factory and had $9 million worth of inventory.

Donald Rumsfeld was on President Reagan's transition team and the day after he took office he appointed an FDA Commissioner who would approve aspartame. The FDA set up a Board of Inquiry of the best scientists they had to offer, who said aspartame is not safe and causes brain tumors, and the petition for approval is hereby revoked. The new FDA Commissioner, Arthur Hull Hayes, over-ruled that Board of Inquiry and then went to work for the PR Agency of the manufacturer, Burson-Marsteller, at a rumored $1000.00 a day, and has refused to talk to the press ever since. Read the whole story of the history of aspartame at http://www.wnho.net/history_of_aspartame.htm This will tell you everything you need to know. Rumsfeld calling in his markers is even documented in the congressional record!

In order to get it in other countries, Searle made a business deal with Professor Paul Turner in England. They knew if England found out the FDA wanted them indicted for fraud it could never get approved. Parliament found out and there was a big blow out but the order was never rescinded. The story was in the Guardian. Now all they had to do was rubberstamp this deadly poison around the world.

There were three congressional hearings because of the outcry of the people being poisoned. Senator Orrin Hatch refused to allow hearings for a long time. The first hearing was in 1985, and Senator Hatch and others were paid by Monsanto. So the bill by Senator Metzenbaum never got out of committee. This bill would have put a moratorium on aspartame, and had the NIH do independent studies on the problems being seen in the population, interaction with drugs, seizures, what it does to the fetus and even behavioral problems in children. This is due to the depletion of serotonin caused by the phenylalanine in aspartame.

Rumsfailed has been profiting upon illness and death for a very long time.

[Ghost Dog]

87. Thanks UiA. "depletion of serotonin", huh.

I'm looking to legalise home-grown marijuana for own use here in Spain (as in Switzerland, never mind Holland),

And mostly drink fresh natural spring water and some good (cheap) Spanish and Catalan, sometimes Italian mostly-red wines.

[UpInArms]

11. Price Swings Are Colliding With Anxiety

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/06/04/business/yourmoney/04mark.html?ex=1149998400&en=e2da6b5b55dc2826&ei=5099&partner=TOPIXNEWS

(free registration or try www.bugmenot.com)

THE ups and downs in stock prices may be followed especially closely this week. Volatility has picked up markedly in the last month, rising to its highest level in two years, and concern about the market's future has risen with it.

The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, or VIX — a measure of expected volatility in the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index derived from the pricing of stock options — was dormant for months, bumping along the bottom of its five-year range of 10 to 45. It rose to 18 from 12 last month but has eased a bit, closing on Friday at 14.32.

Market swings may be rooted in concerns about economic and corporate conditions, but sometimes volatility itself can feed investors' anxiety. When the magnitude of price movements rises, so do the potential losses in an investor's portfolio.

Richard Berner, a strategist at Morgan Stanley, attributes the uncertainty to a reality check on Federal Reserve policy.

"Fear that the Fed may have been lax on inflation and will now have to trample on the economy to crush accelerating prices has unleashed a significant risk-reduction trade in global financial markets," Mr. Berner said in a note to the bank's clients.

...more...

[UpInArms]

12. US luxury homeowners still add property - Coldwell

http://today.reuters.com/misc/PrinterFriendlyPopup.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-06-05T095953Z_01_N01347201_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-HOUSING-LUXURY.XML

NEW YORK, June 5 (Reuters) - U.S. mortgage rates are at four-year peaks and climbing, cooling a torrid housing market from five years of record sales, but high-end households are still pumping money into second homes with cash to spare for amenities and travel, according to Coldwell Banker.

More than a third of owners of houses valued over $1 million in states other than California -- where the cutoff is $2 million -- own second homes, according to the 2006 Coldwell Banker Previews International Luxury Survey. Another 35 percent are considering buying one.

"This market is hot because 43 percent of these people make over $500,000, and 70 percent of these people said that interest rates had no bearing on their purchases and no bearing on some of the leisure things they do," said Jim Gillespie, chief executive of Coldwell Banker Real Estate Corp.

Buyers in this category are typically younger baby boomers, the survey found. The second-home purchases are either for family use or for investment.

Coldwell Banker last year sold about $56 billion of homes worth at least $1 million, up from $35 billion in 2004 and $23 billion in 2003. The company did not provide an estimate of its luxury home sales pace so far this year.

<snip>

Speculators "are the people right now that are in trouble in Florida because of oversupply," Gillespie said of owners who bought mainly condos intending to sell at a quick profit. "If you're going to invest in real estate or stocks bonds or gold, don't be a flipper," he said. "You need to be a smart investor, and a smart investor does not buy to flip right away."

...more...

[UpInArms]

17. Motorola to make Singapore its global supply-chain center

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?dist=newsfinder&siteid=mktw&guid=%7B330A56A8%2D4D10%2D4772%2D9795%2D3BBFA1E18CFA%7D&symbol=

SINGAPORE (MarketWatch) -- Motorola Inc. (MOT) Monday said it planned to invest US$60 million over two years to make Singapore the center of the company's global supply chain management.

Motorola, the world's second largest mobile phone maker by shipments, also said at a press briefing that it will employ another 200 people in Singapore by the end of 2007.

Motorola, which currently employs around 2,500 people in Singapore, already bases several of its supply chain management functions in the wealthy Southeast Asian city-state.

[UpInArms]

18. AZ: Financial firms plan 350 layoffs, facility closures

http://msnbc.msn.com/id/13140040/

Two major financial institutions are laying off more than 350 Valley workers and closing back-office centers in North Scottsdale and Phoenix.

HSBC Card Services Inc. plans to cut 213 jobs in October and is closing a Scottsdale center that handles credit card service calls. Its parent company, London-based HSBC Holdings, is one of the world's largest financial institutions.

Washington Mutual Inc. is closing its loan fulfillment center in the Biltmore neighborhood and cutting about 140 back-office jobs in the Valley.

The Seattle financial institution is consolidating its network of processing offices throughout the country, dropping the number from 26 to 15. The Phoenix hub is being consolidated into California operations.

The cuts will take effect June 4 and July 2, according to company officials.

The layoffs are among a number of cutbacks announced by well-known Arizona employers in recent weeks.

...more...

[UpInArms]

20. The guilty men of Enron

http://www.rediff.com/money/2006/jun/05dpc.htm

Even as the power plant originally put up by an Enron subsidiary on the west coast of Maharashtra restarted producing power under a different management, the principal guilty men of Enron - the one time chairman and the former chief executive - were convicted of fraud in US courts last month.

They will appeal, but are likely to spend much of their remaining lives behind bars. Meanwhile, in all the recent reporting about the case, one aspect has been forgotten: Kenneth Lay, the now convicted ex-chairman of Enron, was extremely close to the Bush administration, and a major influence in the framing of energy policy under a taskforce headed by the Vice President, Dick Cheney.

Cheney has refused to part with the minutes of meetings in which Lay participated, despite demands from investigators, claiming confidentiality. What is he hiding?

<snip>

But to come back to Enron, a question that has baffled me is whether the rightist political/economic philosophy, as exemplified by Margaret Thatcher in the UK and Ronald Reagan and the two Bushes in the US, sanctified greed, making it almost virtuous.

The original propagator of the virtues of a market economy and its invisible hand, Adam Smith, had a different sense of social responsibility. The corruption and injustice prevalent in the former socialist democracies are no great advertisement for the moral force of that model either.

...more...

[UpInArms]

21. Beldon CDT boosts earnings outlook; to close two plants - jobs to Mexico

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B40800338%2DC8BF%2D4E1D%2D9EBC%2D4D280199C1A2%7D&siteid=mktw&dateid=38873%2E3682679514%2D876729951

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Beldon CDT Inc. (BDC : , , ) said Monday it'll take a second-quarter impairment charge of $2 million and severance charges of $3.6 million over several quarters as it moves cable production to Mexico and closes two plants with 315 employees in the U.S. The company expects second-quarter adjusted earnings to be above the top end of its April forecast of 37-42 cents a share. The average forecast in a survey of analysts by Thomson First Call is for earnings of 40 cents a share. Beldon CDT will invest about $30 million for a plant in Nogales, Mexico, which it expects to open in the third quarter of 2007.

Company Information


Belden Cdt Inc Website Annual Report
Suite 800 7701 Forsyth Boulevard Phone: [phone]
St. Louis MO 63105

Fax: [phone]


Designs, manufactures and markets high-speed electronic cables, connectivity products and related items for the specialty electronics and data networking markets.

[UpInArms]

22. Treasurys under pressure ahead of services sector survey

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B858FFC3A%2D60DF%2D4FCB%2DA5B5%2DA2F19D249B14%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - Treasury prices were under slight pressure early Monday, pushing yields a bit higher, ahead of the latest May Institute for Supply Management survey of the services sector. The benchmark 10-year Treasury note last was down 1/32 at 101-1/32 with a yield ($TNX : 50.02, +0.08, +0.2% ) of 4.993%, up slightly from 4.990% in late trade Friday. The benchmark yield on Friday closed below 5%, marking the first time the yield has traded below the fed funds rate in 5 years, after lower-than-projected employment growth led to speculation that the Federal Reserve may pause in its interest-rate-tightening cycle. The MarketWatch forecast, based on a poll of economists, is for a 60.5% reading for the May ISM services survey, which would mark a decline from 63.0% in April. In the current environment, all economic reports are being scrutinized by investors because the Federal Reserve has made clear that monetary policy will be linked to data. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, European Central Bank President Jean-Cluade Trichet and Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Toshiro Muto are scheduled to speak at a monetary confence in Washington this afternoon.

[UpInArms]

26. Printing Press Hums: Fed adds reserves via overnight system repos

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-06-05T133109Z_01_N05342088_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-FED-OPERATIONS.XML

NEW YORK, June 5 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve on Monday said that it was adding temporary reserves to the banking system through overnight system repurchase agreements.

Fed funds were trading at 5 percent, the Fed's target for the benchmark overnight lending rate, at the time of the operations.

For further details on the operation, see http://www.ny.frb.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm

[UpInArms]

91. Treasurys slip further as Bernanke notes inflation

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?dist=newsfinder&siteid=mktw&guid=%7B77EF6FD4%2D4A6A%2D43BC%2D9110%2D4CD5F02543EB%7D&symbol=

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Treasury prices closed lower Monday, sending yields higher, after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told a monetary conference that core inflation has reached the top end of the central bank's comfort zone, stirring worries that the Fed will need to keep lifting rates.

The benchmark 10-year Treasury note ended down 8/32 at 100-25/32 with a yield ($TNX : 50.26, +0.32, +0.6% ) of 5.025%, up from 4.99% in late trading Friday. Prices and yields move in opposite directions.

The 30-year note finished 4/32 lower at 90-25/32 with a 5.105% yield.

The 2-year note was off 4/32 at 99-26/32, yielding 4.975%.

Bernanke appeared with European Central Bank president Jean-Claude Trichet and Bank of Japan deputy governor Toshiro Muto at an afternoon monetary conference in Washington.

The event, sponsored by the International Monetary Conference, is a rare joint public appearance by representatives of the world's top three central banks.

...more...

[UpInArms]

23. pre-opening blather

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -4.1. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -4.8.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -4.1. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -5.0. Stage remains set for stocks to kick off the week modestly lower as concerns about rising oil prices and the pace of economic growth continue to act as an overhang. Even though the excessive fears about a sharp slowdown (or even a recession) in the economy have eased, the underlying anxieties persist and will continue to weigh on investors' minds until it becomes clear whether or not the Fed can keep inflation under control without going too far with its tightening.

08:30 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -4.8. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -6.0. Still shaping up for stocks to open on a downbeat note as futures indications continue to languish below fair value. A handful of analyst upgrades in the Tech sector (e.g. TXN, SNDK, BMC, PAYX), though, could help offset early market losses as could the defensive characteristics of the Health Care sector following a plethora of positive clinical data from PFE, GSK and WYE at a cancer conference over the weekend.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -4.7. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -5.0. Futures versus fair value are signaling a lower open for the cash market. With nothing in the way of notable earnings reports, no typical Monday-morning M&A news nor economic data until the ISM Services Index hits the wires at 10:00 ET, the specter of high oil prices has returned front and center as a market-moving concern. Investors are finding it difficult to ignore crude oil futures surging 1.7% to their highest level (above $73.50 a barrel) in more than three weeks after Iran warned the U.S. yesterday that any action against its nuclear facilities would disrupt oil shipments.

[UpInArms]

25. 8:31 EST Casino wheels turning and landing in the red

Dow 11,217.86 -30.01 (-0.27%)
Nasdaq 2,210.81 -8.60 (-0.39%)
S&P 500 1,285.78 -2.44 (-0.19%)
10-Yr Bond 5.000 +0.06 (+0.12%)

NYSE Volume 37,738,000
Nasdaq Volume 46,648,000

[UpInArms]

28. 9:49 EST A Swansong Dive or a Belly Flop?

Dow 11,176.89 -70.98 (-0.63%)
Nasdaq 2,206.10 -13.30 (-0.60%)
S&P 500 1,281.93 -6.29 (-0.49%)
10-Yr Bond 5.002 +0.08 (+0.16%)

NYSE Volume 159,114,000
Nasdaq Volume 150,563,000

[UpInArms]

30. Gold gains as Iran creates safe-haven bid (@ $647.20)

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?dist=newsfinder&siteid=mktw&guid=%7B39F684CD%2DD1BB%2D4E4A%2DBFC5%2DFE2C8F7388E2%7D&symbol=

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - Gold futures rose early Monday after Iran warned that U.S. actions could lead it to halt shipments of oil, sending crude prices sharply higher and creating a safe-haven bid for gold.

Gold for August delivery was last up $6.20, or 1%, at $647.20 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. On Friday, the contract gained $7.50 as the dollar fell sharply following a weaker-than-expected May jobs report.

"If you make a wrong move regarding Iran, definitely the energy flow in this region will be seriously endangered," Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, warned on state television over the weekend, the BBC reported.

The warning came just days after the permanent members of the United Nations Security Council and Germany reached agreement on a package of incentives to offer Iran in an attempt to persuade it to halt its nuclear research.

<snip>

Meanwhile, Citigroup upgraded its gold-price forecasts, predicting that the metal will rally back through its recent peak above $730 an ounce as inflation fears persist.

...more...

[Ghost Dog]

40. Note weird Haaretz comment here:

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/722365.html
Last update - 10:26 04/06/2006
The Americans only understand force
By Zvi Bar'el

In the wake of the package that Washington and its friends are offering Iran, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has sent new "partner" George Bush another missive, in which he writes: "After I heard Madam Condoleezza Rice's proposal for the stick and carrot package you are preparing for us, after deep rumination and out of a recognition of our shared mission for world peace, of which I wrote to you in my previous letter, I am offering cooperation on the following basis: We are prepared to cease uranium enrichment for a period of 10 years on condition that Israel sign the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and place its nuclear facilities under IAEA supervision; that you, the Americans, recognize the legitimacy of Hamas and immediately lift the international sanctions on the Palestinian Authority; that you stop harassing our friend Syria and cancel the trade embargo you imposed on the Syrian banks; that you work to change Resolution 1559 in a manner that legalizes the status of Hezbollah arms.

"If we can reach an understanding on these matters, Mr. Bush, we can also discuss the situation of Iraq and assist you in setting a date soon for the withdrawal of your troops from that conquered country. After all, Mr. President, if you and Israel maintain that we constitute an existential threat, you will doubtless be glad to remove this threat by forfeiting lesser matters such as Hezbollah and Hamas."

Because Western powers are not the only ones capable of drafting "stick and carrot" packages. Iran also knows how to spell those two words, especially when it is holding a large and threatening stick.

Advertisement

Out of a recognition of the spine-chilling power that such a letter could transmit to the back of the State of Israel, let it be said at once: The letter has not yet been sent, but it is possible it is already in the works. Because within five weeks Iran has gone from being a threatened country to a country "whose arguments should be heard" and a "partner for negotiations." In other words, whoever wants Iran to adhere to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty ostensibly ought to also accept its right to develop nuclear power for peaceful purposes, a right set down in that same treaty. And whoever does not believe Iran's peaceful intentions finds he must prove that through more than ordinary muckraking; he has to put Iran to a real test. Negotiate with it. Nothing more or less than the way in which Washington is dealing with North Korea.

And that is how the American proposal was conceived. Not out of a fundamental understanding that the United States can no longer operate alone to implement its strategic aspirations. This time Washington, too, is required to demonstrate its purity of intentions and display a diplomatic willingness before firing. This is the most important strategic product of the war against Iraq, and Iran is its first beneficiary.

/more...

[UpInArms]

78. August Gold closes @ $678.70 oz

1:51 PM ET 6/5/06 AUGUST GOLD CLOSES UP $7.70 AT $648.70 AN OUNCE

[OrangeCountyDemocrat]

81. UIA, Please Edit Your Subject nt

[UpInArms]

86. CORRECTION: August Gold closes @ $648.70 oz

1:51 PM ET 6/5/06 AUGUST GOLD CLOSES UP $7.70 AT $648.70 AN OUNCE

(silly clumbsy fingers!)

[OrangeCountyDemocrat]

95. Jumped The Gun There

It will probably be back to $678 in the next few days. Just a final opportunity to get it below $700.

[Ghost Dog]

97. Mosque in Isfahan:

(Photographer: Xavier Cervera; published by El País (Spanish Newspaper Magazine)).

[Ghost Dog]

118. Err, error: That should read:

photographer: Xavier Cervera; published by La Vanguardia (Catalan (Barcelona) Newspaper Magazine).

(Lo siento).

[Ghost Dog]

32. Europe hit by high oil prices and falling dollar (early morning)

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/1105df0c-f45f-11da-86f6-0000779e2340.html
Published: June 5 2006 07:47 | Last updated: June 5 2006 09:00 BST

European equity markets fell on Monday as crude prices rose above $73 a barrel, re-igniting fears that high raw materials costs could lift inflation, while stifling earnings growth.

In early trade, the FTSE Eurofirst 300 was down 0.5 per cent to 1,306.6, while Frankfurt’s Xetra Dax fell 1.3 per cent to 5,614.63. In Paris, the CAC 40 lost 0.6 per cent to 4,927.82 and London’s FTSE 100 shed 0.2 per cent to 5,750.4.

/more...

[Ghost Dog]

33. Europe hit by high oil prices and falling dollar (early afternoon)

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/1105df0c-f45f-11da-86f6-0000779e2340.html
Published: June 5 2006 07:47 | Last updated: June 5 2006 14:44

European equity markets fell on Monday as crude prices rose above $73 a barrel, re-igniting fears that high raw materials costs could lift inflation, while stifling earnings growth.

By mid afternoon, the FTSE Eurofirst 300 had recovered some lost ground, but remained 0.3 per cent lower at 1,308.77. Frankfurt’s Xetra Dax fell 0.9 per cent to 5,638.94, while the CAC 40 in Paris lost 0.5 per cent to 4,936.86.

London’s FTSE 100 was propped up by rising mining and oil stocks as commodity prices advanced. It was 0.2 per cent higher at 5,773.3.

/more...

[Ghost Dog]

70. Europe hit by high oil prices and falling dollar (closing)

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/1105df0c-f45f-11da-86f6-0000779e2340.html
Published: June 5 2006 07:47 | Last updated: June 5 2006 17:37

High oil prices and a weak dollar pressured European equities on Monday, with Wall Street’s early losses adding to the negative mood.

Investors were also unsettled by nagging fears that the European Central Bank might opt to raise interest rates more aggressively than expected later this week.

The FTSE Eurofirst 300 fell 7.55 points, or 0.6 per cent, to 1,305.65.

The benchmark index has dropped 7.1 per cent from the 4½-year closing high of 1,405.55 recorded a month ago.

But many strategists still feel that fundamentals continue to favour European stocks.

“Europe may be on the verge of a period of above trend growth just as the US is slipping sub-trend,” said Mark Wall at Deutsche Bank.

Lehman Brothers on Monday published research showing that European corporate earnings had picked up from the dip seen at the end of last quarter.

“Of the 140 companies in the FTSE Eurofirst 300 that have reported first-quarter results, 69 have delivered positive surprises, 24 were negative and 47 had in-line results,” said strategist Ian Scott.

That gave a positive-to-negative ratio of 2.9:1, compared with 1.8:1 in the fourth quarter of 2005. Lehman defines “surprises” as results that exceed or miss the consensus figure by more than 5 per cent.

But sectors with heavy exposure to the US economy were badly hit on Monday by the dollar’s fall to a one-year low against the euro.

/more entirely disinterested detail...

[Ghost Dog]

73. European stocks end down, high oil renews worries (Reuters)

http://investing.reuters.co.uk/investing/MarketReportArticle.aspx?type=eurMktRpt&storyID=2006-06-05T163715Z_01_L05118752_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-EUROPE-STOCKS-UPDATE-4.XML
Mon Jun 5, 2006 5:37 PM BST

LONDON, June 5 (Reuters) - European shares closed down on Monday, resuming a downward trend after three sessions of gains as a rise in crude oil to $73 a barrel sparked fresh worries over corporate growth.

Carmakers such as DaimlerChrysler (DCXGn.DE: Quote, Profile, Research) were hurt as the dollar slipped to a year low against the euro and hit exporters, while weakness in telecoms and a fall on Wall Street also weighed.

The pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 index <.FTEU3> of top shares closed down 0.57 percent at 1,305.65 points after rising for three consecutive days to Friday.

<snip>

"A premature end to interest rate increases, particularly by the Federal Reserve, would sustain economic growth in the short term but would threaten the embedding of an upward trend in inflation," said Max King, an investment strategist at Investec Asset Management. "The result would be an upward spiral in bond yields, commodity prices and financial risk and a downward one in equity markets, culminating in a financial crisis."

...

Jitters ahead of an expected European Central Bank rate hike on Thursday hit sentiment on Monday, with opinions split over whether the ECB will raise borrowing costs by 25 or 50 basis points.

A number of European centres including Austria, Norway and Switzerland were closed for Pentecost.

Energy stocks and oil services firms provided a rare bright spot, with Royal Dutch Shell (RDSa.L: Quote, Profile, Research) and BP (BP.L: Quote, Profile, Research) firming as crude rose after Iran hinted it might use energy flows as a weapon in its nuclear dispute with the West.

The oil sector helped Britain's FTSE 100 index <.FTSE> end flat, while Germany's DAX <.DAXI>, heavy in industry stocks and free of oil firms, shed 1.2 percent and France's CAC 40 <.FCHI> fell 0.9 percent.

/more...

[UpInArms]

38. 10:06 EST Imitating the Hindenburg

Dow 11,165.35 -82.52 (-0.73%)
Nasdaq 2,206.56 -12.84 (-0.58%)
S&P 500 1,282.05 -6.17 (-0.48%)
10-Yr Bond 5.000 +0.06 (+0.12%)

NYSE Volume 256,945,000
Nasdaq Volume 230,234,000

[UpInArms]

42. Flashing to Poetry From Allen Ginsberg: Howl

http://www.people.virginia.edu/~jng2d/enlt255/texts/howl/howl.htm

I saw the best minds of my generation destroyed by madness, starving hysterical naked,

dragging themselves through the negro streets at dawn looking for an angry fix,

angelheaded hipsters burning for the ancient heavenly connection to the starry dynamo in the machinery of night,

who poverty and tatters and hollow-eyed and high sat up smoking in the supernatural darkness of cold-water flats floating across the tops of cities contemplating jazz,

who bared their brains to Heaven under the El and saw Mohammedan angels staggering on tenement roofs illuminated

who passed through universities with radiant cool eyes hallucinating Arkansas and Blake-light tragedy among the scholars of war,

who were expelled from the academies for crazy & publishing obscene odes on the windows of the skull,

who cowered in unshaven rooms in underwear, burning their money in wastebaskets and listening to the Terror through the wall,

...more...

[Ghost Dog]

48. Oh yes. Ginsberg's Howl. Excellent.

I feel a re-reading of Jack Kerouac's "Sometimes a Great Notion" coming on.

(btw, I just finished reading Annie Proulx's 'Wyoming (short) Stories' (including Blackfoot Mountain, or whatever it's called - one of many greats in the collection). Real Ranchers: yeah, I understand a lot more, now.

Screwing themselves and each other. Killing the wild, attempting to protect whatever pays money. No love, no sense of community. Anything in order to survive.

Certainly admirable, in a hard way. But very stupid. Surrounded by much greater evil.

"Our job is nothing less than to save the world"

...

with mother finally ******, and the last fantastic book flung out of the tenement window, and the last door closed at 4 AM and the last telephone slammed at the wall in reply and the last furnished room emptied down to the last piece of mental furniture, a yellow paper rose twisted on a wire hanger in the closet, and even that imaginary, nothing but a hopeful little bit of hallucination--

ah, Carl, while you are not safe I am not safe, and now you're really in the total animal soup of time--

and who therefore ran through the icy streets obsessed with a sudden flash of the alchemy of the use of the ellipse the catalog the meter & the vibrating plane,

who dreamt and made incarnate gaps in Time & Space through images juxtaposed, and trapped the archangel of the soul between 2 visual images and joined the elemental verbs and set the noun and dash of consciousness together jumping with sensation of Pater Omnipotens Aeterna Deus

to recreate the syntax and measure of poor human prose and stand before you speechless and intelligent and shaking with shame, rejected yet confessing out the soul to conform to the rhythm of thought in his naked and endless head,

the madman bum and angel beat in Time, unknown, yet putting down here what might be left to say in time come after death,

and rose reincarnate in the ghostly clothes of jazz in the goldhorn shadow of the band and blew the suffering of America's naked mind for love into an eli eli lamma lamma sabacthani saxophone cry that shivered the cities down to the last radio

with the absolute heart of the poem of life butchered out of their own bodies good to eat a thousand years.

- Allen Ginsberg, San Francisco 1955 - 1956

[UpInArms]

43. 10:36 EST Entering Stage One of Grief: Denial

Dow 11,190.08 -57.79 (-0.51%)
Nasdaq 2,211.70 -7.70 (-0.35%)
S&P 500 1,284.39 -3.83 (-0.30%)
10-Yr Bond 5.008 +0.14 (+0.28%)

NYSE Volume 422,949,000
Nasdaq Volume 355,924,000

10:30 am : Blue chip averages continue to languish near session lows, as the day's only scheduled economic report does little to ease ongoing concerns about Fed policy. At the top of the hour, the May ISM services index dipped to 60.1 from 63.0 in April, still showing solid expansion but since it fell and the market remains extremely sensitive to any signs of weakness in economic data, coupled with the prices paid component spiking to 77.5 and rivaling the all-time high of 78.4 in September 2005, further underscores investors' apprehension.DJ30 -69.47 NASDAQ -9.35 SP500 -5.18 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1719/947/330 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1898/1001/278 mln

10:00 am : Equities are still on the defensive as nine out of 10 economic sectors trade lower. Further deterioration in semiconductor and software continues to weigh on Technology while profit-taking in banks and brokers is removing some of the recent momentum in Financials. Homebuilders extending their reach into the red for the year, after Standard Pacific (SPF 28.23 -1.77) became the latest to discuss softening demand and indicated that it expects to lower its full-year EPS and delivery outlook, coupled with the adverse impact of higher oil prices on retail, are preventing Consumer Discretionary from offering any upside leadership. Energy, though, is benefiting from oil's continued climb but is the only sector posting a gain. DJ30 -63.07 NASDAQ -11.49 SOX -0.7% SP500 -4.97 XOI +0.3% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1653/825/188 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1858/774/146 mln

[UpInArms]

46. Moody's sees credit risk from options backdating probes

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BD4A92514%2D0816%2D4EC3%2D9E63%2D7FA43FD41B44%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Moody's Investors Service said Monday inquiries by the Security Exchange Commission and the Department of Justice into the possible practice of "backdating" stock option grants at more than 20 U.S. companies may lead to additional rating or outlook changes. "A finding of improper backdating could impact an issuer's credit rating," Moody's corporate governance analyst Jeffrey Benner said in a new report. "Moody's is following developments at each issuer, and may take additional actions on outlooks or ratings or both as information becomes available." The agency has so far cited the inquiries as a factor in only one rating action, when it lowered the outlook on UnitedHealth Group Inc. (UNH : 46.29, -0.69, -1.5% ) from stable to negative on May 22.

Is the risk in the probe or the impropriety?

[54anickel]

58. Heh-heh, must be in the probe. I'm pretty sure one of the articles I

posted last week or the week before stated it wasn't "illegal" (just unethical). They called it a "loophole" - made it sound like someone's done their homework on it.

edit to add this quote to sum it all up - this was on the timing of new releases...

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-options30may30,1,5674078.story?page=2&track=crosspromo&coll=la-headlines-business

"If you wait until after a negative release, the option price is lower and you make more money when the stock goes up. If you set the price before a good release you get an immediate profit," said Paul Hodgson, a senior research associate at Corporate Library. "No matter the rules, there's always some way to make a gain."



Lifting the Lid: Stock options 'spring-loading' targeted
http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=governmentFilingsNews&storyID=2006-06-02T200039Z_01_N02433069_RTRIDST_0_COLUMN-LIFTING-SCHEDULED-WEEKLY-COLUMN.XML

WASHINGTON, June 2 (Reuters) - The fast-spreading U.S. investigation of executive stock option grants is focused not only on backdating to boost their value, but also on a practice known as spring-loading, people familiar with the matter say.

Spring-loading, setting a grant date and exercise price to occur shortly before the release of positive news, is simpler than backdating and poses different legal issues.

Some lawyers say spring-loading is permissible, but note that in certain cases it could be a serious violation that could lead to charges of insider trading.


The Securities and Exchange Commission "enforcement staff has spoken openly about its concern with a potential illegality in terms of spring-loading," said David Martin, partner at the law firm of Covington & Burling and a former top SEC staffer.


snip>

Backdating involves retroactively setting an option issue's grant date and exercise price to precede a rally in the underlying shares. The practice can present disclosure, accounting and tax problems.

Spring-loading is not retroactive. It involves setting a grant date and exercise price to occur shortly before the release of news expected to boost the underlying shares.

more...

[UpInArms]

52. 12:25 EST No footing on the slippery floor

Dow 11,165.67 -82.20 (-0.73%)
Nasdaq 2,200.80 -18.61 (-0.84%)
S&P 500 1,280.71 -7.51 (-0.58%)
10-Yr Bond 5.002 +0.08 (+0.16%)

NYSE Volume 852,689,000
Nasdaq Volume 708,994,000

12:00 pm : Major averages are trading near their worst levels of the day on heightened geopolitical concerns and a mixed economic report.

Early market weakness was attributed to oil prices hitting three-week highs after Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei indicated that a "wrong move" by the U.S. against Iran's nuclear facilities could "seriously endanger energy flow in the region." However, even as oil prices have eased a bit and are now trading near session lows at 72.80 a barrel (+0.7%), concerns about whether or not the Fed can keep inflation under control without going too far with its tightening and the pace of economic growth continue to weigh on sentiment. To wit, the May ISM services index dipped to 60.1 from 63.0 in April, still showing solid expansion but since it fell and the market remains extremely sensitive to any signs of weakness in economic data, coupled with the prices paid component spiking to 77.5 and rivaling the all-time high of 78.4 in September 2005, raising inflation concerns, the data have done anything but offer investors some assurance about the Fed's ability to accurately assess the impact of recent rate hikes.

With regard to industry leadership, nine out of 10 economic sectors trading lower further underscore the market's inability to regain much momentum. Materials is pacing the way lower, led by a 3.0% decline in Steel, while the Industrials sector, which has also turned in an impressive 7.8% year-to-date performance, is also falling victim to profit takers. More deterioration in semiconductor and software have pushed Technology further into negative territory for the year while weakness in retail and homebuilding are weighing on Consumer Discretionary. Homebuilders are under pressure after Standard Pacific (SPF 27.87 -2.13) became the latest to discuss softening demand and indicated that it expects to lower its full-year EPS and delivery outlook. DJ30 -77.17 NASDAQ -12.63 SP500 -5.94 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1834/1029/630 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2022/1065/540 mln

[ozymandius]

59. update on this mess

12:53
Dow 11,172.71 -75.16 (-0.67%)
Nasdaq 2,201.15 -18.26 (-0.82%)
S&P 500 1,281.63 -6.59 (-0.51%)
10-Yr Bond 50.02 +0.08 (+0.16%)
NYSE Volume 945,513,000
Nasdaq Volume 758,663,000

12:30 pm : Indices extend their reach to the downside as the afternoon session gets underway. The PHLX Semi Index more than matching its 1.0% year-to-date loss has contributed to the tech-heavy Nasdaq slipping 0.9% and back into the red for the year. Faring even worse, though, is the Russell 2000, which is now off more than 1.3% as investors lock in some of the small cap index's strong 9.5% surge so far in 2006. DJ30 -83.90 NASDAQ -19.06 SP500 -7.56 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1951/932/716 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2030/1069/614 mln

[54anickel]

61. Wonder if we'll see the DOW around 10,500 this month? Spent the

better part of 2005 range bound in that area. :shrug:

[54anickel]

56. G-7's Push for Stronger Asian Currencies May Not Cut Trade Gap

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=aCQsXo69MkTg&refer=us

June 5 (Bloomberg) -- World financial leaders meeting in Russia this week are counting on a rise in Asian currencies to significantly narrow the U.S. trade gap. It may not work.

Exchange rate fluctuations have lost much of the power they once had to influence the prices consumers pay for imports or to compensate for disparities in manufacturing costs, say economists Stephen Roach and Ronald McKinnon.

Even a gain in Asian currencies great enough to push the dollar close to its 1995 low ``will accomplish surprisingly little in fixing all that ails the unbalanced world,'' says Roach, chief economist at Morgan Stanley in New York.

Competition now makes it harder for U.S. companies to raise prices to recover currency-related cost increases, economists say. Even when prices do go up because of foreign-exchange fluctuations, American consumers won't lose their taste for imports, and Asian companies will still be able to underprice U.S. competitors, they say.

``Conventional wisdom suggests that if exchange rates are changed, the trade deficit problem will be resolved,'' says McKinnon, an economics professor at Stanford University in California. ``Unfortunately, the way the world works now, that model is deceptive.''

snip>

Economists who caution against excessive reliance on a lower dollar argue that the power of a weakening currency has been diluted by globalization. While the dollar has dropped 25 percent on a trade-weighted basis since the start of 2002, the U.S. deficit keeps swelling.

``The maths just don't do it, even though the dollar has corrected,'' says Harvinder Kalirai, head of research in Sydney at State Street Corp., the world's largest provider of investment services to institutions. Demand for imported goods such as oil is ``inelastic,'' meaning dollar depreciation won't hinder purchases, he says.

more...

[markam]

60. ``Unfortunately, the way the world works now, that model is deceptive.''

The model will work just fine when the dollar is worth 10% of what it is now (about 6 months from now).

[54anickel]

66. Asia's Riches Will Strain Resources, U.S. Ties

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000039&refer=columnist_mukherjee&sid=awuiiYTJ5vzA

June 5 (Bloomberg) -- If you believe the United Nations' population projections, every second addition to the world's workforce between now and 2010 will be in Asia.

Europe will see no labor increases and Japan, a decline.

Unlike in Africa, where surplus labor may only accentuate poverty for lack of investments, people in developing nations of Asia stand a chance of capturing a big chunk of the new jobs and moving themselves and their families toward greater prosperity.

snip>

There's enough friction to cause a spark.

A declaration of independence by Taiwan would see China and the U.S. engaged in a nasty conflict.

The U.S. doesn't like China and India securing energy supplies from Sudan and Iran. At the same time, the unstated objective behind China's support of initiatives such as the East Asian Community and the Asian Currency Unit is to end the economic hegemony of the U.S.

The forces of globalization that are propelling Asia toward prosperity may look unbeatable. But global interdependence was also at its peak a century ago, before an assassin's bullet in Sarajevo found its mark in an Austrian archduke.

more...

[54anickel]

65. Goldman Sachs Has Gained Too Much Political Power

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000039&refer=columnist_lynn&sid=aGS6lvr8ipiw

June 5 (Bloomberg) -- Forget ``The Da Vinci Code.'' If you want to get to grips with a real conspiracy, take a look at all the Goldman Sachs Group Inc. staffers taking over important economic positions around the world.

The U.S. Treasury, the Bank of Italy and the Bank of England have all recently poached key policy makers from the world's most profitable securities firm.

While no one would dispute that New York-based Goldman Sachs is a money-making machine full of alpha-brains, it isn't healthy for so many decision-makers to be drawn from one source.

snip>

Third, the concentration of power is starting to look unhealthy. A clan of former senior Goldman staffers is now in a position to help steer the dollar, the euro and the pound. There needn't be anything sinister about that -- though financial conspiracy theorists could have a field day with some of the connections. The issue is that they are likely to have a uniform set of preconceptions and prejudices. In any area of endeavor, it is healthy to have a wide diversity of views. Global monetary policy is no exception.

Lastly, there may be the potential for conflicts of interest. For example, policy makers might need to think whether oil speculation has to be brought under control. And Goldman is a participant in that trade. Would a former Goldman manager hammer one of his old firm's most profitable lines of business? And would they form an objective view on whether hedge and buyout funds are amassing too much influence? Maybe not.

more...

[UpInArms]

67. Tea-Leaf Gazing: Man kills wife for lack of a cup of tea

http://www.int.iol.co.za/index.php?set_id=1&click_id=79&art_id=qw1149516181363B253

New Delhi - A husband in India's eastern Bihar state bludgeoned his wife to death because she could not make him a cup of tea, a news report said Monday.

Anil Singh, 32, murdered his wife Reena Devi, 26, in a village in Katihar district some 230km east of state capital Patna, police told the IANS news agency.

"The woman expressed her helplessness as there was no tea or sugar in their home at that time," a police official was quoted by the news agency as saying.

This angered Singh who hit her on head with a thick piece of wood, leading to her instant death, the official added. Police have launched a hunt for Singh. - Sapa-dpa

[54anickel]

71. The End of Excellent Earnings (Hussman)

http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc060605.htm

In recent months, I've emphasized that stocks are far more richly valued than price/earnings ratios seem to imply. The robust earnings growth rates of recent years largely reflected a trough-to-peak move in earnings, right back up to the 6% growth channel that connects S&P 500 earnings from economic peak-to-peak as far back as one cares to look (see the March 20, 2006 comment for a recent chart). With the exception of the late-1990's bubble, if we examine periods where earnings were within 10% of that long-term growth line, the price to peak earnings multiple on the S&P 500 has averaged less than 10. Moreover, once earnings approach that long-term trend line, they have typically contracted at an average rate of -3.39% annually over the subsequent 3-year period.

If investors ignore the position of earnings in the economic cycle, P/E ratios seem benign – certainly not extreme in comparison with the late-1990's bubble valuations. And it's a small step from there to argue that valuations are even bullish. If you watch the financial channels for more than about 20 minutes, you'll typically hear some analyst saying that “stocks are still cheap relative to bonds” – which is analyst-speak for the “Fed Model.” The Fed Model simply compares the earnings yield of the S&P 500 (based on estimates of future operating earnings) to the 10-year Treasury yield. If the earnings yield is higher, the Fed Model is bullish. Suffice it to say that the model has virtually zero predictive value for subsequent stock returns. However, I found several years ago that the model does have some slight redeeming value. It turns out that when earnings yields are low, and Treasury bond yields are even lower, it's not a useful buy signal for stocks, but it's often a pretty good sell signal on bonds.

Why worry about earnings?

There's a clear historical tendency for earnings to drop over the 3-years following an approach of that long-term 6% growth channel. But it would seem almost superstitious to believe that earnings ought to weaken this time around on that basis alone, especially with the economy still seemingly resilient. As always, the difference between analysis and superstition is in asking why a particular relationship should exist, and in understanding the mechanism behind it.

With that in mind, we put together the following chart last week (thanks to Bill Hester for research assistance). The blue line (right scale) depicts U.S. corporate profits as a percentage of nominal GDP. The violet line (left scale, smoothed) depicts U.S. personal disposable income as a percentage of nominal GDP, using an inverted scale – a rising line means a falling disposable income share. Notice that increasing corporate profits as a share of GDP generally come at the expense of wage earners' share, and vice versa. The recent upleg in corporate profits since 2003 reflects a corresponding drop in personal income as a share of GDP (a rising violet line) from 75% to 72% of GDP.

more...

[mojavekid]

72. Russia leading global 'stealth demand' for gold

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2006/06/05/cnrussia.xml

The world's big money brigade is snapping up gold bullion at eight times the rate originally thought, according to a report by UBS, the world's biggest gold trader.

snip..

The Swiss bank said information from its trading floor suggested that funds and investors were allocating 20pc of their commodity portfolios to precious metals.

This is far more than the index tracking funds run by Goldman Sachs, Dow Jones-AIG, and others, typically taken to be a guide to overall investment flows.

more...

[Ghost Dog]

112. Noted. n/t

[UpInArms]

76. 1:45 EST Slip Sliding Away

Dow 11,153.18 -94.69 (-0.84%)
Nasdaq 2,196.76 -22.65 (-1.02%)
S&P 500 1,279.61 -8.61 (-0.67%)
10-Yr Bond 5.004 +0.10 (+0.20%)

NYSE Volume 1,137,418,000
Nasdaq Volume 896,700,000

1:30 pm : Market is still holding relatively steady but at sharply lower levels as buying interest remains scarce across the board. Unfortunately for the bulls, one of the few areas attracting buyers is oil, as crude futures retrace earlier highs and are back above $73 a barrel. Even more discouraging, though, has been the Energy's sector's inability to take advantage whatsoever, as 28 out of 29 sector components post losses. Investors are beginning to price in the realization that Energy sector profits, which have helped sustain overall double-digit SnP earnings growth for 16 straight quarters, are unlikely to increase at the same pace in the second half of the year.DJ30 -79.80 NASDAQ -20.33 SP500 -7.37 XOI -1.2% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2048/890/878 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2075/1081/762 mln

1:00 pm : No real change in sentiment as sellers remain in full control of the action. On a positive note, the Telecom and Utilities have attracted some recent buying interest. Nevertheless, sector gains are modest at best and since both are among the least influential sectors, combining for only 6.5% of the total weighting on the SnP, their advance merely underscores the broader market's inability to take notice. DJ30 -78.04 NASDAQ -18.73 SP500 -6.87 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1999/934/764 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2081/1046/680 mln

[UpInArms]

79. 2:10 EST Faring Worse

Dow 11,133.09 -114.78 (-1.02%)
Nasdaq 2,190.56 -28.85 (-1.30%)
S&P 500 1,276.96 -11.26 (-0.87%)
10-Yr Bond 5.002 +0.08 (+0.16%)

NYSE Volume 1,251,472,000
Nasdaq Volume 989,746,000

2:00 pm : Sellers show some resolve since the last update and push the indices to their worst levels of the day. Despite oil paring its gains, which bodes well for the consumer, a subsequent sell-off in Energy, which now leads all sectors to the downside with a 1.8% decline, is weighing on sentiment. Fed Chairman Bernanke contributing in a panel discussion at the American Bankers Association International Monetary Conference about international monetary policy, which begins in 15 minutes, is underpinning an additional sense of apprehension. DJ30 -100.29 NASDAQ -24.68 SP500 -9.09 NASDAQ Dec/Adv 2101/862 NYSE Dec/Adv 2176/1017

[ozymandius]

80. Blood and eyeballs on the floor.

2:38
Dow 11,090.99 -156.88 (-1.39%)
Nasdaq 2,179.78 -39.63 (-1.79%)
S&P 500 1,271.65 -16.57 (-1.29%)
10-Yr Bond 50.00 +0.06 (+0.12%)
NYSE Volume 1,464,042,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,167,669,000

2:30 pm : The bottom continues to fall out of the market as Bernanke's prepared but hawkish speech exacerbates investors' concerns about Fed policy. the three major averages are posting losses of at least 1.1% after Bernanke said consumer spending has "decelerated noticeably" in recent months and that core inflation if sustained, would be "at or above the upper end of the range" that many economists and himself would consider consistent with price stability. Due to such "unwelcome developments," the Fed must anchor long-term inflation expectations. Bonds have also lost ground as the yield on the 10-yr note is up to 5.12%.DJ30 -135.91 NASDAQ -35.08 SP500 -14.35 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2249/754/1.16 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2233/976/1.00 bln

[JNelson6563]

83. Indeed! Very bloody day!

I knew the SMT would be hoppin'. The idea of responsible economic governance causes panic on Wall St.


*sigh*

Julie

[UpInArms]

84. Looks like "Chopper" Ben has "chopped the legs out of the markets"

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?dist=newsfinder&siteid=mktw&guid=%7B7B78F4E8%2D5F4E%2D4193%2DA831%2D23ED7B25F3EC%7D&symbol=

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Although the anticipated slowdown in growth is underway, financial markets shouldn't question the inflation-fighting credentials of the Federal Reserve Bank, Chairman Ben Bernanke said Monday.

"There is a strong consensus" among FOMC members to keep inflation low, Bernanke told an international banking forum here.

Recent core inflation readings "have been higher in recent months" and "has reached a level that, if sustained, would be at or above the upper end of the range that many economists, including myself, would consider consistent with price stability and the promotion of maximum long-run growth," Bernanke said.

These core readings "are unwelcome developments," he said.

"Therefore, the FOMC will be vigilant to ensure that the recent pattern of elevated monthly core inflation readings is not sustained," Bernanke said.

Bernanke noted that inflation expectations have edged up, but said they still remain in the ranges "in which they have fluctuated in recent years."

"But these developments bear watching," he said.

To keep inflation anchored, the Fed must have a strong commitment to maintain price stability and also "a consistent pattern of policy responses to emerging developments as needed to accomplish that objective," he said.

...more...

[UpInArms]

85. 3:06 EST "Chopper" Ben Hits an Artery

Dow 11,093.53 -154.34 (-1.37%)
Nasdaq 2,178.48 -40.93 (-1.84%)
S&P 500 1,271.04 -17.18 (-1.33%)
10-Yr Bond 5.014 +0.20 (+0.40%)

NYSE Volume 1,643,144,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,303,898,000

3:00 pm : Stocks begin to stabilize somewhat, after probing last week's lows, but remain weak across the board. Of all 10 sectors trading lower, Energy and Materials are pacing the way with declines of more than 2.0% while the influential Technology, Health Care and Industrials sectors are posting losses of at least 1.0%. It is worth noting though that below average volume lends less conviction behind today's broad-based drubbing. To wit, volume on both the NYSE and Nasdaq didn't surpass 1.0 bln shares until investors began sifting through Bernanke's commentary at 2:15 ET.DJ30 -134.71 NASDAQ -34.80 SP500 -14.51 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2313/689/1.30 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2373/851/1.14 bln

2:30 pm : The bottom continues to fall out of the market as Bernanke's prepared but hawkish speech exacerbates investors' concerns about Fed policy. The three major averages are posting losses of at least 1.1% after Bernanke said consumer spending has "decelerated noticeably" in recent months and that core inflation has reached a level that, if sustained, would be "at or above the upper end of the range" that many economists and himself would consider consistent with price stability. Due to such "unwelcome developments," the Fed must anchor long-term inflation expectations. Bonds have also lost ground as the yield on the 10-yr note is up to 5.12%.DJ30 -135.91 NASDAQ -35.08 SP500 -14.35 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2249/754/1.16 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2233/976/1.00 bln

[UpInArms]

89. 3:13 EST Looking at the Yawning Gates of Hell

Dow 11,076.42 -171.45 (-1.52%)
Nasdaq 2,175.48 -43.92 (-1.98%)
S&P 500 1,268.96 -19.26 (-1.50%)
10-Yr Bond 5.020 +0.26 (+0.52%)

NYSE Volume 1,700,847,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,348,028,000

[htuttle]

90. Hold your arms over your heads, people!

WAAAAAHOOOOOOOO!!!!!

[UpInArms]

92. and I thought it was a "stick up"!

[htuttle]

93. Well, NOW you're talking about my post-401k retirement plan...

[UpInArms]

94. And I thought it was the butler in the library with

a knife.

:eyes:

[UpInArms]

98. 3:44 EST Will the faeries save 11,100?

you know they like those round even hundred numbers :eyes:

Dow 11,066.81 -181.06 (-1.61%)
Nasdaq 2,174.86 -44.55 (-2.01%)
S&P 500 1,267.67 -20.55 (-1.60%)
10-Yr Bond 5.026 +0.32 (+0.64%)

NYSE Volume 1,938,761,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,531,232,000

3:30 pm : Selling remains the name of the game going into the close as the bottom continues to fall out of the market. The Dow, SnP 500 and Nasdaq are now off at least 1.5% as decliners outpace advancers by almost a 3-to-1 margin on both the Big Board and the Composite. Painting an even more bearish picture, though, is a nearly 4-to-1 ratio of down to up volume as the bulk of industry leadership remains negative. Of the 147 SnP industry groups, only five are posting gains.DJ30 -165.15 NASDAQ -42.55 SP500 -18.863 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2333/685/1.47 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2429/807/1.30 bln

[Buttercup McToots]

99. Ouch!

Shyte....
This hurts...
:hurts:

[Buttercup McToots]

101. ...

over 200 points...!
I need an asprin

[54anickel]

105. Just keep telling yourself that, over the long term, stocks just keep

going up!!! :evilgrin: Bwahahahaha!!! :hi:

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

100. It looks like someone just had to open their blow hole today.

[girl gone mad]

113. At least he's finally saying the right things.

Interest rates need to go up, fast. It's going to hurt a lot of people who took a gamble on overpriced real estate, stocks and bonds, but it's all we can do to save our dollar.

Now Bernanke just needs to figure out how to pin the blame on Greenspan, where it belongs, so he won't be the one taking the fall.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

114. Saying the right things?

He's popping off about the sanctity of marriage.

The World stands around looking aghast.

The Market hits the shitter.

Voila!

[girl gone mad]

116. Oh..

I thought you were talking about Bernanke. Sorry..

[UpInArms]

102. "Chopper" Ben keeps swinging his axe

3:46 PM ET 6/5/06 BERNANKE: GLOBAL IMBALANCES CAN BE RESOLVED IN STABLE WAY

3:46 PM ET 6/5/06 BERNANKE: U.S. CURRENT ACCOUNT GAP REDUCTION WILL TAKE YEARS

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B930CC00F%2D815B%2D4363%2D8FA6%2DEADFD638D026%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU : 11,050.97, -196.90, -1.8% ) fell by more than 200 points in late trade Monday after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke made a tough speech on inflation, prompting concern the Fed may be far from finished its rate-raising cycle. The last time the Dow lost more than 200 points was May 17. The index was last down 194 points at 11,052.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

106. "The last time the Dow lost more than 200 points was May 17."

Um, er, three, count 'em, three weeks ago.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

115. "It's not every day that the Market loses two big ones."

"If you don't consider every three weeks 'every day' then you're right."

[stop the bleeding]

103. Ouch

that is gonna leave a mark.

Wonder what Tuesday will bring, better get some more Puts ready

[UpInArms]

104. Lawmakers' lobby-paid trips: $50 million since '00

While you silly peons worry about gas money, these guys are flying high!

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?dist=newsfinder&siteid=mktw&guid=%7B14833738%2D1F5F%2D40A0%2DA84F%2D9F064DE42252%7D&symbol=

WASHINGTON -- Outside groups representing interests as diverse as nuclear energy and telecommunications have paid nearly $50 million since 2000 to shuttle members of Congress and their staffs around the world, from Kazakhstan to Kansas City, Paris to Palm Springs.

In fact, staffers often outpace their bosses in the number and the costs of trips that they took to far-flung edges of the world.

Overall, members of Congress went on globe-trotting excursions costing $18.9 million. But private interests paid much more -- $30 million -- to finance the trips of congressional staff members, who often are instrumental in shaping policy.

<snip>

According to official travel documents analyzed by Medill News Service, the Center For Public Integrity and American Public Media, lawmakers and their staffs took about 23,000 trips between Jan. 1, 2000, and June 30, 2005.

Government watchdog groups have criticized privately sponsored trips as an opportunity for lobbyists to gain access to lawmakers -- access unavailable to most Americans. But congressional insiders say such trips offer an outside-the-Beltway perspective on policy issues.

These trips, with costs ranging as high as $30,000, are permissible under congressional rules. But they have been cast in a negative light since former lobbyist Jack Abramoff pleaded guilty to bribery and corruption charges after it was revealed that he had paid for trips in violation of the rules.

...more...

[UpInArms]

107. better link - more info

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?dist=newsfinder&siteid=mktw&guid=%7B14833738%2D1F5F%2D40A0%2DA84F%2D9F064DE42252%7D&symbol=&print=true&dist=printTop

excerpt:

Republican congressional offices traveled more than Democrats, accounting for 56% of the dollars spent. With Republicans controlling Congress, the GOP has all the committee chairmanships, and consequently more staffers.

Republican leadership offices had the most-traveled staffers. Hastert's staff took the most trips and had the highest tab of any congressional office. Other Republican leadership staffs, including those of former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay, R-Texas, and House Transportation and Infrastructure Chairman Don Young, R-Alaska, were among the offices with the most travel.

<snip>

The two most traveled staffers worked for key Republican leaders. Brian Gaston, an aide to former House Majority Leader Dick Armey and now chief of staff for Majority Whip Roy Blunt, had the biggest travel expenses, about $88,000 spread over 39 trips.

18 trips for $85,000

He was closely followed by Susan Hirschmann, former chief of staff for DeLay, who resigned as majority leader in January and will retire June 9 because of legal entanglements. Hirschmann racked up about $85,000 in travel expenses despite only taking 18 trips and leaving DeLay's office in mid-2002.

...more...

[54anickel]

108. My head's gonna explode. Will we EVER get our government back

from the shysters on K Street? First we'd have to elect some scrupulous folks to Congress so they'd stop enabling the sham. I just hold a lot of hope anymore. When are we "takin' it to the streets"?

eta

You don't know me but I'm your brother.
I was raised here in this living hell.
You don't know my kind in your world.
Fairly soon the time will tell.

You, telling me the things you're gonna do for me.
I ain't blind and I don't like what I think I see.
Takin' it to the streets, takin' it to the streets,
no more need for runnin', takin' it to the streets.

[wordpix]

110. a $30,000 trip across the globe? I'd call that bribery & buying access

[Roland99]

109. Closing: Fed Lips Sink Stocks' Ship

DJIA 11,048.72 -199.15 -1.77%
Nasdaq 2,169.62 -49.79 -2.24%
S&P 500 1,265.29 -22.93 -1.78%
Dow Util 411.77 -4.13 -0.99%
NYSE 8,145.53 -159.72 -1.92%
AMEX 1,950.97 -26.47 -1.34%
Russell 2000 713.92 -23.53 -3.19%
Semcond 460.42 -14.23 -3.00%
Gold future 648.70 +7.70 +1.20%
30-Year Bond 5.12% +0.02 +0.45%
10-Year Bond 5.03% +0.03 +0.64%

[ozymandius]

111. and the blather

Latest Updates
4:20 pm : Stocks got rocked Monday after hawkish commentary from Fed Chairman Bernanke late in the day exacerbated early weakness sparked by mounting tensions with Iran, closing the major averages sharply lower.

Before the market opened, the absence of notable earnings and economic data placed extra emphasis on surging oil prices. Crude oil futures hit three-week highs near $74 a barrel after Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei indicated that a "wrong move" against its nuclear facilities could "seriously endanger energy flow in the region." However, even as oil prices eased a bit and were trading near session lows midday, ongoing concerns about the pace of economic growth and whether or not the Fed can keep inflation under control without going too far with its tightening continued to weigh on sentiment, especially with upcoming testimony from Bernanke to the American Bankers Association today about international monetary policy.

At 2:15 ET, the Fed Chairman acknowledged that the "anticipated moderation of economic growth seems now to be under way," which plays into our Neutral market view. Adding insult to injury, Bernanke said consumer spending has "decelerated noticeably" in recent months and also delivered some sobering comments on inflation trends that swayed the market to believe that a tightening at the June 28-29 FOMC meeting is likely. Due to such "unwelcome developments," Bernanke continued by saying, "the Committee will be vigilant to ensure that the recent pattern of elevated monthly core inflation readings is not sustained." Prior to Bernanke's remarks hitting the wires, the market was pricing in roughly a 50% probability of another rate hike in June. After Bernanke's comments, the probability increased to as high as 76% and the spread between the 2-yr and 10-yr note yields narrowed to its tightest level since early April, about 5 basis points. The yield on the 10-yr note (-06/32) closed at 5.01%. Further underscoring the nervousness behind the day's drubbing was a 19.3% surge on the VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) -- the "investor fear gauge," which suggested investors are cautiously buying options to hedge against further declines in equities.

Every notable index posted a loss of at least 1.8%, with the Russell 2000 Index getting hammered (-3.2%) since the specter of higher rates greatly impact the borrowing power of small-cap companies. Of all 10 sectors losing ground, Energy and Materials paced the way with declines of nearly 3.0% while a 2.0% sell-off in Industrials further underscored profit-taking in this year's best performing areas. The influential Technology, amid further deterioration in semiconductor and the hardware grouping turning negative for the year, was also a drag on the proceedings. Consumer Discretionary was also in focus and nearly halved its 3.5% year-to-date performance after Standard Pacific (SPF 27.39 -2.61) became the latest to discuss softening demand and indicated that it expects to lower its full-year EPS and delivery outlook. The PHLX Housing Sector Index extended its reach into the red for the year and hit a new 52-week low.

Until the Fed Chairman's prepared speech was released, though, investors also found little comfort from the day's only economic report. At 10:00 ET, the May ISM services index dipped to 60.1 from 63.0 in April, still showing solid expansion but since it fell and the market remains extremely sensitive to any signs of weakness in economic data, coupled with the prices paid component spiking to 77.5 and rivaling the all-time high of 78.4 in September 2005, raising inflation concerns, the data offered investors no assurance about the Fed's ability to accurately assess the impact of recent rate hikes. The only bright spot on a very dark day for stocks was renewed interest in Office REITs, which paced the way among only a couple of SnP industry groups to trade higher after Brookfield Properties' (BPO 31.16 +0.18) $8.9 bln bid for Trizec Properties (TRZ 28.68 +4.08). DJ30 -199.15 NASDAQ -49.79 SP500 -22.93 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2391/664/1.79 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2567/690/1.63 bln