Garcia Wins Peru Elections, Defeating Humala, Exit Poll Shows

[Tom Yossarian Joad]

June 4 (Bloomberg) -- Alan Garcia defeated Ollanta Humala in a run-off presidential vote in Peru, returning to power two decades after his first term led the Andean country to a debt default and annual inflation of 8,000 percent, an exit poll showed.

Garcia took 52.8 percent of the vote, giving him a 5.6 percentage-point margin over Humala, who won 47.2 percent of the vote, according to an exit poll by Apoyo Opinion y Mercado released on America Television.

Peruvians are counting on Garcia, a 57-year-old lawyer who studied at the Sorbonne University in Paris, to be more moderate in his policies in a second term, said Daniel Hewitt, an economist with New York-based Alliance Capital Management LP. Garcia has pledged to keep the budget deficit in check, support a free-trade agreement with the U.S. and provide incentives for companies to invest in the $68 billion economy.

``Garcia's going to be wary of making the same mistakes he did before,'' said Hewitt, whose company manages $163 billion in fixed-income securities, including emerging-market debt. ``Having a good economic turn-out is hugely important to him.''

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000086&sid=aMBiQ8yD43uI&refer=news_index

[IndianaGreen]

1. Garcia won't last a year

His economic policies won't work, and any attempt at privatizing will be met with resistance from the majority of Peruvians, who are poor and do not share the same values as the investor class in the US, or their own elites.

[Tom Yossarian Joad]

2. I don't know, Peru is a lot more stable, both financially and politically

than it was the last time he was Pres.

Only time will tell and we can only hope for the best for them.

[arcos]

3. I don't think he'll try privatization...

He's not a hard core right winger, in fact his party used to be pretty much socialdemocratic. Of course, he's now the prefered candidate of business interests and he will try other "free market" policies though. I believe he'll probably finish up his term, but in the next election the left will win in a landslide.

[ButterflyBlood]

9. Garcia is a leftist

and if the majority of Peruvians were strongly opposed ot his policies, they wouldn't vote for him.

[IndianaGreen]

14. Garcia is a Peruvian version of a DLCer

Anyone to the left of Hitler is considered a leftist in Peruvian politics, which has suffered from death squads from the right, Shining Path on the left, a Japanese President with a CIA connection, etc.

[ButterflyBlood]

42. I'd take a DLCer over an extreme nationalist...

Who has praised a repressive dictator who took power in a military coup, has connections to extreme homophobes, and was involved with the very death squads you mentioned.

[Zynx]

41. Garcia is left of center. Besides, what's left to privatize in Peru anyway

? Fujimori and Toledo privatized virtually everything.

[Robbien]

4. Wait a minute, this is an early "quick poll"

Isn't Peru in about the same time zone as the midwest in the US?

Corporate media jumping the gun a bit there aren't ya.

[Tom Yossarian Joad]

5. Here's a Peruvian link:

http://peru.com/noticias/especiales/elecciones2006/resultados_dos/resultado_detalle.asp?fuente=1&tipo=1&lugar=0

[Robbien]

8. Their vote count is in and it is only going on 6pm there?

Okay, Garcia wins. BushCo wins.

Hopefully the people of Peru are winners also.

[IndianaGreen]

11. There is a whiff of voting fraud in the air

and having the corporate media proclaim a winner before the official tally is in, is highly suspicious.

[arcos]

19. Polling stations close at 4pm... nt

[Robbien]

21. Thanks, that clears that up. . . n/t

[IndianaGreen]

13. Here is another Peruvian link and there are some questions

as to the vote counting in some regions:

http://www.larepublica.com.pe/

and the newspaper is reporting some disturbances in some parts of the country. Humaya's running mate is also telling people to wait for official results because the exit polls have a margin of error of over 5% which is about the difference between the candidates:

(La República Digital, 17:43 hrs) El candidato por Unión por el Perú a la vicepresidencia, Gonzalo García Núñez, alertó hoy de que los sondeos a boca de urna cuentan con un margen de error de hasta el 5 por ciento y por ello aguardan con calma los resultados oficiales.

http://www.larepublica.com.pe/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=112652&Itemid=565&fecha_edicion=2006-06-04&fecha_edicion=2006-06-04

[Tom Yossarian Joad]

15. Thanks for the link... My Spanish is weak but from this:

Alan García votó en colegio de Miraflores

Entre vítores de decenas de simpatizantes, Alan García, candidato presidencial por el Partido Aprista, concurrió esta mañana a su local de votación ubicado en un colegio de Miraflores.

García se desplazó hasta su centro de votación acompañado de un contingente policial. Ya en el lugar y sin contratiempos ni desórdenes como los que hubo en las elecciones del 9 de abril pasado, el candidato se apersonó a su mesa, en el colegio Scipión Llona, donde sufragó a las 09:56 horas.

Simultáneamente, su esposa Pilar Nores votaba en un colegio cercano del mismo distrito. En breves declaraciones, invocó a la ciudadanía a emitir su voto con responsabilidad.

García prefirió no dar declaraciones, pero respondió con amables gestos los saludos de sus simpatizantes desde la camioneta que lo movilizó. (La República Digital)



From this, I'm getting the message that it will be tomorrow before anything's written in stone.

[Robbien]

16. The link to the voting results page isn't changing either, stuck at 91%

It still seems funny that 91% of the vote was counted before 6pm.

[Tom Yossarian Joad]

17. At least they don't have Diebold down there...

They may have ended up with Tom Delay as President.

[IndianaGreen]

6. Hmmm... good point, Robbien, and according to BBC, these are exit polls

You know, all exit polls are credible except when they show Kerry defeating Bush.

Here is the BBC:

Exit polls favour Peru's Garcia

Last Updated: Sunday, 4 June 2006, 22:24 GMT 23:24 UK

Peruvians have been voting in the country's run-off election, with ex-President Alan Garcia battling nationalist candidate Ollanta Humala.

The first exit polls, issued after voting stations closed at 1600 (2100 GMT), showed Mr Garcia in the lead, with more than 52% of the vote.

In the first round, Mr Humala received 30.7% to Mr Garcia's 24%.

The first official results are not expected for several hours, after a fiercely contested campaign.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/5045634.stm

[Tom Yossarian Joad]

12. Actually, the Bloomberg piece above has the same data..

The Peru.com election link above is real-time and the error rate is +- 5%.

"Garcia took 52.8 percent of the vote, giving him a 5.6 percentage-point margin over Humala, who won 47.2 percent of the vote, according to an exit poll by Apoyo Opinion y Mercado."

It's close, but Apoyo Opinion y Mercado is well respected and the other pollsters actually have Garcia at a higher win.

If I am remembering correctly, Humala took 17 of 25 territories, but Garcia took the major population areas.

There's also a lot of Peruvians in S Fla and Japan that will need to have their votes counted, but it's expected that they will go strongly Garcia.

[arcos]

18. Polls close at 4pm... nt

[Finder]

7. And Kerry won according to our exit polls in 2004. n/t

[IndianaGreen]

10. Exit polls are always accurate, except when they show Kerry

beating Bush.

[arcos]

20. They were not accurate in Costa Rica...

And in this case, the right winger did much worse than what exit polls predicted... maybe Humala can still win. :)

[Tom Yossarian Joad]

22. Just a reminder: Garcia is a leftist as well.

[arcos]

24. Sort of...

His party is traditionally social democratic, but as most other similar parties in Latin America, has been anything but social democratic. His previous administration was known as the most corrupt in Peru's history until Fujimori came in, ad in this election, García has moved to the right in order to get the votes of right winger Lourdes Flores.

I don't trust or like Ollanta Humala, but Alan García is a proven failure.

[Tom Yossarian Joad]

25. You have a point....

But as many interviewed Peruvians have stated: He's the lesser of two evils.

I pray that the people of that wonderful Country fare well. (and that Garcia's BS quotient was low and he does what he said he would do)

[Tom Yossarian Joad]

23. From Monsters & Critics:

http://news.monstersandcritics.com/southamerica/article_1169643.php/Exit_polls_Ex-president_Garcia_leading_leftist_Humala

Lima - The polls closed Sunday in Peru as voters decided between Social Democrat Alan Garcia and authoritarian leftwing nationalist Ollanta Humala for the country's next president.

Exit polls released after the close of voting stations by the private survey organization Apoyo gave Garcia nearly 53 per cent support compared to 47 per cent for Humala.

The winner will get a five-year term to succeed wildly unpopular President Alejandro Toledo.

Garcia is a former president whose administration was widely unpopular, while Humala is feared by Peru's middle and upper classes.

More than half of Peru's 27 million people live in poverty.

Polls before the election indicated that the race was 57-year-old Garcia's to lose, though Humala, 43, was the top vote-getter in the first round of elections in April.

<snip>

[Tom Yossarian Joad]

26. Telegraph: Peru poised to re-elect the devil they know

Peru voted for a new president yesterday in what was seen by many as an unappetising choice: an ex-military rebel and ultra-nationalist versus a former president who had a disastrous term.

"What is wrong with us in Peru," said Enrique Lozano, a shop manager, as he prepared to vote in Lima's affluent Miraflores district. "I have to choose between a nationalist, racist madman who wants to turn our system upside down and a former president who did turn it upside down."

Polls indicated that the Peruvians would go for the devil they know. Alan Garcia, 57, is expected to win a second term as president with 54 per cent of the vote.

He left office after his first term in 1990 with inflation at more than 1,000 per cent and the Shining Path rebel movement in inexorable advance. He bolted into exile in Colombia.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2006/06/05/wperu05.xml&sSheet=/news/2006/06/05/ixnews.html

[ButterflyBlood]

43. That sums up the election well, I pity the choice of the Peruvian people

It's quite telling when the conservative who finished third was the best choice of the lot.

[arcos]

27. Ollanta Humala is speaking to his supporters right now...

I still haven't heard him accept defeat, but it sure sounds like a defeat speech...

[Tom Yossarian Joad]

28. Where are you at?

[arcos]

29. Costa Rica... watching on CNN en Español... nt

[Tom Yossarian Joad]

30. Ahhhh! I have customers there.

And am thinking of selling and moving there.

[arcos]

32. Cool!

Let me know if you do :)

[Tom Yossarian Joad]

33. I will. I've been hitting the real estate sites and looking for

properties....

God, I am so ready to get out of here. What areas do you like for a middle income American with poor Spanish?

[arcos]

34. The preferred area for Americans...

is the Escazú/Santa Area, where lots of upper class Costa Ricans live. It is pretty common to hear English (and even other foreign languages) in stores around that area. Prices in the best areas of Escazú can get a bit high though, so maybe you would be better off somewhere else, I don't know. Lots of Costa Ricans know pretty decent English, so you probably won't have much of a problem anywhere you go (as long as it is either near San José or in a highly touristic place).

[Tom Yossarian Joad]

35. Thanks. I'll start looking around there for my price range.

:toast:

[Tom Yossarian Joad]

36. Damn. One of the places I've been looking at is in San Jose...

http://www.propertiesincostarica.com/properties/arcos.html

[arcos]

39. Cariari is fine...

Lots of foreigners also. Geographically it is not in San José (in fact, the airport is not in San José either despite the name), but it is part of the Central Valley and just 5-10 minutes highway drive from downtown San José.

[Tom Yossarian Joad]

40. Thanks, Arcos. I'm going to be headed down there in a couple of months,

I'll give you a yell before and maybe have a cervesa or two.

[arcos]

31. His speech is over... he says he has won in most departments...

He neither claimed victory or accepted defeat, but instead said that everyone must wait for the official results.

[Judi Lynn]

37. Thanks for the information. n/t

[arcos]

38. Alan García just spoke to the media too...

As Humala, he neither claimed victory or accepted defeat, but said that if the exit polls are correct, he will be President.

He said that both politicians will have to speak to everyone and must conciliate their positions in order to unite the country.