U.S. Says World Could Handle Loss of Iran Oil

[sabra]

http://www.defensenews.com/story.php?F=1821394&C=america

U.S. Says World Could Handle Loss of Iran Oil

Iran’s dispute with the West over its nuclear program will probably not lead Tehran to cut off its oil exports, but if it did, the world could handle the lost supply, U.S. Energy Secretary Sam Bodman said on May 23.

The United States and other western countries are worried that Iran is trying to build an atomic bomb, even though Tehran insists its seeking nuclear power only to boost electricity supplies.

"I don’t lose sleep over their (Iran’s) withholding oil from the marketplace because they are so dependent on oil export revenues," Bodman said at the Reuters Global Energy Summit in New York.

The Energy Department told Congress last week that the 26 countries that belong to the International Energy Agency have enough government-controlled and private commercial oil stocks to cover a disruption in Iran’s crude oil exports for more than four years.

[wakeme2008]

1. Can you say $6 a gallon

I knew you could :grr:

[opihimoimoi]

4. Pure Undiluted ARROGANCE

Them Pubs have all the Damn Wrong Answers...every fucking time....

Look at their 5 1/2 year trail of EVIDENCE.....Its almost like they wanna fuck things up...like its INTENTIONAL...

[m0nkeyneck]

15. it is intentional

[rodeodance]

17. I shake my head!--they did not care. simply do NOT care.

[Miss Chybil]

21. I heard $50 a gallon if we go to war with Iran.

It was a guest on AAR a while back. I can't remember his name, but I think he was on Randi Rhodes' show.

[TheCowsCameHome]

23. Um, Typo? $6 a quart would be more like it...................

[kestrel91316]

27. Try $10. Panic has a way of doing that.

[villager]

2. "I don't lose sleep over the extra oil profits"

n/t

[mom cat]

52. Bingo!

[partylessinOhio]

3. So what is that supposed to mean? Bush can blow Iran off the map

and the world will still turn?

I want my president to work on world peace and stop making war and threatening other countries.

[uppityperson]

5. See, nothing to worry about. He told us so so it is all ok let's invade!

911 911 911 911 911 911 911 911

[Skink]

6. Ah to be an oil man.

And I always thought W wasn't good at it.

[DELUSIONAL]

7. What ignorant shits -- the guys who are now running the US

[MikeNearMcChord]

8. Didn't these same jokers say

that Iraqi oil would pay for the costs of the war and the rebuilding of Iraq?:wtf:

[robertpaulsen]

9. I call BULLSHIT!

So Mr. Bodman, care to say which countries could increase their oil production to replace the 3.8 million barrels PER DAY that Iran would be taking off the market?

Let me know how you're sleeping once Iran shuts down shipping in the Persian Gulf after we start our airstrikes, OK Sam?

[cliss]

10. Really? Well, I have some news for

Samuel 'Bonehead' Bodman. Here's a little piece from the oil drum web page: To give you the punchline up front, I'm going to argue that, with large (50%) uncertainties, a complete loss of Iranian production for an extended period might be expected to roughly double oil prices and cause massive economic impacts, while a halving of oil production due to sanctions, or retaliation to sanctions, might be expected to produce a 30-40% increase in price and significant economic impacts."

While Mr. Bodman will sleep soundly at night, here are the countries which won't:

Who buys Iranian oil: 56% of Iranian oil goes to Asia (Japan & China) and 29% goes to Europe.

Last point: The Iranians, unlike the soft fat-ass Mr. Bodman, are used to hardship. They have weathered many storms, and emerged only tougher from it.

unlike the US economy which would come to a sreeching halt, they have staying power.

[Roland99]

11. Hope Rep. Waxman is starting an "Iran on the Record" compilation

[Eugene]

12. In other words, Iran regime change is a go.

Mr. and Ms. Consumer, get ready to get screwed.

[daleo]

13. So, the Bush government speaks for the world now?

I don't think the world agrees though.

[BayCityProgressive]

14. Well it is true

that Iran wouldn't stop selling oil. They would starve to death. They have no other means of income.

[VegasWolf]

16. I hardly think either China or Russia will give a shit over what Bush

wants and would continue to buy oil. Isolated little Bush is hardly in a position to speak for the WORLD!

[BayCityProgressive]

18. But

isn't the US the world's biggest consumer of oil?? I know nothing about Iran's economy...how much of their economy is based on sales to the US? I am sure the power elite there would probably take money over patriotism to Iran...just like every other country on Earth.

[Rex]

20. China and Russia are longtime trading partners with Iran.

That is why Cheney, Rummy and Rice are now talking about Russia and China as regressive, anti-democratic countries (with the innuendo being the both need to be replaced with American style capitalism). When They attack Iran, they are by extension attacking China and Russia. This is all bullshit posturing because China and Russia have a security vote on Iran and won't play ball.

[daleo]

32. As others have pointed out, Iran has many oil buyers worldwide.

It is true that Iran won't quit selling oil to the world, short of a U.S. attack and/or invasion. That's a straw man argument that the U.S. official is using, unless it is a veiled allusion to a U.S. attack on Iran.

If Iranian oil is withheld from the world market, U.S. oil prices would go up, even though the U.S. doesn't buy oil from Iran. Oil is fungible, after all. In the U.S. that would mean a recession, at a minimum.

[Ghost Dog]

22. The US imports no oil, or anything else (officially) from Iran.

The US is still under self-imposed sanctions against doing any kind of business with Iran, as far as I know (Iran-Contra type stuff excepted, of course)...

[Spazito]

24. That was exactly my thought!

He doesn't even speak for more than 29% in his own country never mind the friggin world. Unbelievable!

[Pachamama]

50. It's because these Bush Sociopaths believe "they are the World"

They aren't thinking of anybody else or any other country for that matter....

They are truly nuts....

And the scary thing: they really are sleeping well at night!

[K-W]

19. Handle it? The oil company execs would be swimming in money.

The Saudi Arabian Monarchy would be swimming in money, which would go straight back to US corporations.

[jpak]

25. Sammy's doin' a heck of job

When shit hits the fan, he won't be the one paying for the fill-up of his government SUV.

What...me worry?

Out of touch and out of control...

[cantstandbush]

26. I think he means "the corporate world."

This is an administration whose words do have meaning across the globe and everytime they open their neocon-RW-conservative-"Christian" mouths they place Americans in more and more physical and economic danger. The Bushbots are a national security risk...a big one.

[joe_shmoe]

28. **PETITION AGAINST MILITARY ACTION AGAINST IRAN**

It is with grave concern that I observe the growing threat of a new U.S. war--this time against the people of Iran.

For a collection of articles and resources on this subject you can visit this link: http://reseaudesign.com/research/iran/iran_summery.html

I'm starting up a petition which I will be sending out to as many members of Congress as possible. I'm asking for help to get this signed by as many people, possible in the next month. Send it to as many people you can.

http://www.petitiononline.com/n0war1rn/


thanks,
J-shmoe

[IndyOp]

30. Welcome to DU, Joe. Thanks for the link! (nt)

:hi:

[54anickel]

29. World says "shut yer trap" and "speak for yourself - asshole!" I can't

believe the arrogance of these SOBs. So I take it regime change is a go? Lordy we could use some of that here.

[gordianot]

31. It almost makes you long for the days of OPEC, there was a cartel.

U.S. Presidents in those days did not threaten Nuclear War. All of the oil producers hated our guts and were willing to play the Soviets against U.S. interests. Now we only have Chavez and the Iranians who are willing to cut off oil. I guess this is what happens when Texas Oil men take over.

[Jack Rabbit]

33. We need to build a nuclear power hybrid car

When Bush is through, Iran's petroleum will be a perfect for the new hybrids.

:nuke:

[Mr_Spock]

34. tick, tick, tick, tick

Is it time yet?

[yurbud]

35. this seems to confirm the thesis that Iraq War was to keep price UP

As Greg Palast and the Downing Street Minutes have shown.

http://professorsmartass.blogspot.com/2006/04/new-dsm-bush-told-putin-iraq-war.html

[w4rma]

36. If Repugs retain control of Congress, they will invade Iran directly after

the November elections. Imho.

[Lerkfish]

40. actually, I think SOONER, because they believe invading will win them the

elections in November. If they wait until November, its too late (in their minds).

I think BenBurch is close to correct: beginning of June for invading Iran. If its held off, it won't be for lack of PR effort.

[w4rma]

42. I think it'll be after. I think it's something they want to do but isn't

something that will go over well with the general public that has already turned against them on Iraq.

[Lerkfish]

43. we disagree, then, because I think they feel the urgency to do it BEFORE

they risk getting swept out of congress, additionally, Bolton's main goal has been Iran invasion, and they need to do it soon, judging by their rhetoric.

My preference is NEVER, but I disagree that they'll wait until after November.

They believe, rightly or wrongly, that getting embroiled in another war plays well to their base.

[DixieBlue]

48. Yeah, that's what I've been thinking ...

If we're going in ... it'll be sometime this summer. That way the repubs can capitalize on the "political capital" of "liberating another oppressed people" going into November.

[depakid]

37. Pride before the fall

I'm sure the American economy will just thrive on $5 per gallon gas prices.

[Javaman]

38. Nice of moron* to piss off the world yet again...

he* doesn't give a flying fuck, because we don't import from Iran. So sure, let the rest of the world eat cake.

What a truly colossal fucktard racist failure*.

[Gregorian]

39. But they'll bomb them to make sure no one else gets it either.

The whole idea of going to the middle east is to keep the oil NOT flowing. Chaos, destruction, and death are how they are doing it.

[One_Life_To_Give]

41. Rubber boats won't shut the Straits of Hormuze n/t

[martymar64]

45. But Sunburns, Exocets and Yakhonts missiles will

All it takes is to sink a couple of tankers in the Straits and the Persian Gulf will be closed for everyone. No oil will flow from the Straits from S.A., Kuwait, Iraq, Iran, Qatar, Bahrain, Dubai. We may have a big military, but they are not invulnerable. If you doubt the capabilities of the above missiles, look at what happened during the Falklands War. Argentina had 5 exocet missiles and managed to sink 2 British warships. And last time I checked, oil tankers do not come equipped with anti-missile systems. If we try to attack Iran, it'll be a blunder on the scale of Hitler or Napoleon invading Russia.

[One_Life_To_Give]

47. Should have included more text

My bad, should have used the sarcasm icon.

Yes those missiles will sink a tanker.
(Although in the Falklands campaign I believe the Exocet went 0 for 5 in striking it's intended target.)

I believe the US held a wargame in which the US lost badly to a force of rubber boats and othjer non-standard craft in the waters around the Strait. The US Military is acostomed to thinking in terms of taking out the radars required to use a high tech missile. But a boat with only a foot of non-radar reflective material that spends the majority of time hidden behind swells. It would take a gutsy crew, but they could conceivably attached a satchel charge or similar directly to the side of tanker.

[maxsolomon]

44. i for one welcome the coming apocalypse

i suppose the world could 'handle' the complete extermination of the human species too.

bush seems to be floating a blockade of iran's oil exports. good luck with that.

but if it breaks the back of our energy glutton "culture" by jacking up prices to the point where everyone starts riding bikes & taking the bus (except of course those very important amurkins who HAVE to drive a suburban), & mothballs their snowmobiles & cigarette boats & jet skis & dirt bikes & lawnmowers & leaf blowers, then bring it on.

a crisis is the only way this country will wake up.

[Strelnikov_]

46. Maybe They Should Be Wondering Why Iran Is Waving A Red Flag At The Bull

Since al‐Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden began speaking publicly in 1993, he has identified the control of energy reserves in Muslim lands as one of the United Statesʹ most important foreign policy goals. In late 2004, for example, bin Laden described the U.S. invasion of Iraq as an effort to dominate Iraqʹs energy resources. ʺAnd Bushʹs hands are stained with the blood of all those killed on both sides ,ʺ bin Laden said, ʺall for the sake of oil, and keeping their private companies in business.ʺ

In addition, al‐Qaedaʹs strategy against the U.S.—based on the words of bin Laden and al‐Qaeda second‐in‐command Ayman al‐Zawahiri and discussions in al‐Qaedaʹs electronic journals—has become ever more firmly grounded in what bin Laden describes as the ʺBleed America to Bankruptcy War.ʺ The steady and affordable supply of oil, being crucial to the well‐being of the economies of the United States and its allies, has naturally become a focus for al‐Qaeda, as well as a valued target in its overall plan to force the United States out of the Middle East by damaging its economy severly.

From: ʺSaudi Arabian Oil Facilities: The Achilles Heel of the Western Economyʺ
The Jamestown Foundation
May 2006

I am not implying that Iran and al-Qaeda are cooperating, but their ultimate goal is the same (along with that of Russia and Chindia, one wonders?), a diminishing of US influence in the Persian Gulf region.

My theory:

Iran has determined air strikes are the only plausible threat since the Iraq debacle has stretched and depleted US ground resources.

The air strikes will have to be of a limited duration due to resource limitations and worldwide opinion.

Therefore, Iran has decided to press the issue and take the air strikes if they come under the theory that the economic damage caused by high oil prices and worldwide public opinion will diminish US resources, and therefore the ability to maintain influence over the Persian Gulf region.

We do consume 1/4 of the worlds oil, after all, 2/3rds of which is imported. To maintain our trade imbalance, we rely on our Asian trading 'partners' to recycle our dollars. What happens when these dollars now have to chase high priced oil, or are withheld in protest?

[One_Life_To_Give]

51. Supress Dissent

Having an outside enemy causes a supression in dissident movements. The whole common enemy stuff, etc. Then they can label anyone who voices a dissenting opinion as a CIA operative or at least a stooge of the US/Zionist/Crusader forces.

[Bandit]

49. America's credibility has been just steller lately

We believe you ...honest..:shrug: Wolf, wolf, wolf, wolf, wolf,