WP,pg1: Growing Number of GOP Seats In Doubt

[DeepModem Mom]

Growing Number of GOP Seats In Doubt
Vulnerability Seen In Unusual Places
By Michael D. Shear and Dan Balz
Washington Post Staff Writers
Saturday, May 20, 2006; Page A01

VIRGINIA BEACH, May 19 -- When some of the country's top political handicappers drew up their charts of vulnerable House incumbents at the beginning of this year, Rep. Thelma D. Drake (R-Va.) was not among them. Now she is.

President Bush carried her district with 58 percent of the vote in 2004, but strategists say his travails are part of the reason the freshman lawmaker now has a fight on her hands. He swooped into town briefly Friday for a closed-door fundraiser for Drake but made no public appearances.

Drake, who won with ease two years ago, is not alone. With approval ratings for Bush and congressional Republicans at a low ebb, GOP strategists see signs of weakness where they least expected it -- including a conservative, military-dominated suburb such as Virginia Beach -- and fear that their problems could grow worse unless the national mood brightens.

Some Republican veterans of the 1994 GOP takeover of Congress see worrisome parallels between then and now, in the way once-safe districts are turning into potential problems. Incumbents' poll numbers have softened. Margins against their Democratic opponents have narrowed. Republican voters appear disenchanted. The Bush effect now amounts to a drag of five percentage points or more in many districts.

The changes don't guarantee a Democratic takeover by any means, but they are creating an increasingly asymmetrical battlefield for the fall elections: The number of vulnerable Democratic districts has remained relatively constant while the number of potentially competitive Republican districts continues to climb....

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/05/19/AR2006051901921.html

[Spazito]

1. Good news! I loved this little tidbit from the article:

"The Bush effect now amounts to a drag of five percentage points or more in many districts."

Hmmmm, this must be bush's 'capital' being used, lol.

[mcctatas]

2. "the bush effect"...

is that anything like Montazeuma's revenge?;)

[Spazito]

8. LOL, it sure is looking more and more like it may well be! n/t

[DearAbby]

10. They are just UNSETTLED! They are unsettled about the WAR

The Bush effect is unsettling

[Silvermint]

12. Bush Effect?

Let's call it the Bush Doctrine instead. =)

[calimary]

47. Yes! Yes! Yes! Yes! Yes! Yes! "bush Effect!" I like "bush Doctrine,"

too. But I think it's a case of the "bush Effect" being the RESULT of the "bush Doctrine." The "bush Doctrine" has BIRTHED, caused, begotten, the "bush Effect."

OMG, I CANNOT tell you how exquisitely wonderful this is!

For a Mainstream Media outlet to refer to a "bush effect" AS A TERM, AS A CONCEPT, well, lemme tellya, THAT is how new buzz phrases are born. And once that appears in media it's far more likely to be picked up and repeated, and since it's been referred to already, that means the people who issued that are thinking it. That means they're hanging out with, and talking to many sources who confirm that this is now an formally observable trend. If they're saying things like this, they're coining phrases and concepts that can be easily repeated. TWO-WORD statements. Remember Michael Mann's "MTV Cops" concept to NBC that spawned the phenomenally successful (and successful phenomenon) "Miami Vice"? A two-word concept that said it all - easy to wrap your brain around, easy mental pictures and concept to impart to viewers. An easy "get-it." This is GREAT!!! Now that the mainstream media is branding what's going on, oh, MAN! This is GREAT! It means the tide really has turned! They're not just ooh-ing and ahh-ing over what's happening in the polls and the mood of the country. They're now acknowledging what fixed realities those are by giving them names! YOWZA! It's like the whole concept has now gone mainstream.

The Reverse Midas Touch is now taking its toll. And at this point, I suspect we're now getting into a slippery-slope type of thing. The bad polls self-perpetuate, and become their own reality in fact AND IN PEOPLE'S PERCEPTIONS. That produces more bad polls and bad news, which further locks in the bad perceptions. It becomes self-fulfilling, and self-propelled. And the most beautiful thing about it is - it has bush's own name in the title. So it's TIED to him. It's LAMINATED to him. LACQUERED, EPOXIED, TRANSPLANTED onto him. Like the Iraq disaster, it's got his name all over it. There's thus no getting around the fact that this is his thing, and of his making. It exists because of him.

The more we get of that, the more of these newly vulnerable republi-CON House seats we'll see. It's a cascade failure in progress now. Everything is starting to go wrong. EVERYTHING.

And NO ONE on earth is more deserving.

[VegasWolf]

28. it's just that the people are "unsettled" nt

[KansDem]

24. Bush's "charm offensive" has now become the "harm offensive"

Let's hope the Corporate Media reports his "harm offensive" just as fervently as they did the (so-called) "charm offensive" 6 years ago.

[calimary]

48. Oh, my! BRILLIANT! The "Harm Offensive."

Hell, just plain ol' "Offensive" would fit.

VERY good! That's just what it is, too. The "Harm Offensive." Long may it wave!

[teknomanzer]

37. His political capital has become a deficit...

time to collect the interest.

[Oak2004]

55. I'm thinking more like "foreclosure" n/t

[wordpix2]

39. I wonder how "bush effect" will play in statehouse races ---any ideas?

I ran for state rep in '04 in a Repug district and got trounced, although I did better than other Dems. I am wondering how my chances would be this year if I ran.

[EST]

3. And it never occurs to these bastards that it may not be

a problem with how they are selling their message and philosophy, but with that basic philosophy, itself. Republicans may make good businessmen but the country is not a business. They are incapable of properly running a country.

[alcibiades_mystery]

5. It's not even clear that they make good businessmen, quite frankly

:shrug:

[EST]

6. True.

They do have the huge lack of a sense of social responsibility that made Scrooge famous and is so valuable to slumlords.

[sutz12]

41. Shrub certainly wasn't...

:)

[existentialist]

7. This is true not only in domestic politics

but in foreign affairs as well. Just look at Karen Hughes efforts to explain the US to Islamic nations. Just look at the stories correspondents were paid to write. Just look at the millions spent for advertising to try to persuade Iraqis and other Arabs about how wonderful they seem to think we are.

[moose65]

17. so true!

I had forgotten about dear Karen until you mentioned her. She seems to have dropped off the face of the earth! The Bushies must have escorted her to an undisclosed location after her disastrous "listening tour" ! Good riddance, I say!

[IronLionZion]

16. Bush, Ken Lay, a lot of them are miserable failures at business

They're good at being corrupt self-serving and self-righteous. They're good at talking about family values without actually valuing families.

[KansDem]

26. "...the country is not a business"

Good observation, and one sorely overlooked by the political/media establishment. This is the reason Republicans do such a piss-poor job at running government.

For example: How many times have we heard a GOP candidate say he would run government like a business? For decades (going back to Reagan) this has been the GOP mantra during election campaigns. Yet, government cannot be run "like a business." Why? Well, when a business is in trouble, a new CEO comes in to fix things. What does he usually do? Lays of large numbers of workers. Then the BOD pats him on the back and gives him a huge bonus. He gets written up in some magazine and maybe writes his biography. Big deal! So he saves the corporation by cutting jobs.

This can't be done in government. Imagine a CEO type coming into the White House and declaring "OK, 20 million Americans must leave the country! Now!" Won't work. Can't "fire" citizens. Got to find solutions other than cutting "jobs" or "citizen status."

[momster]

33. Isn't that George's Immigration Policy?

You 11 million people? You're fired! Security (National Guard) will escort you to the border!

[calimary]

49. This is exactly correct. Government CANNOT be run like a business.

Also because business is IN business ONLY to make a profit. A government is in business to provide for the common good. NO BUSINESS ON EARTH has that for its main reason for being. NONE. Making a profit is EVERYTHING. They're as different as apples and sand.

[beltanefauve]

34. Agreed

The * Administration and the other Repubs sees problems as a marketing issue rather than a policy issue. And indeed, catchy little slogans like, "We need to fight them over there so we don't have to fight them over here." have gotten them a lot of mileage. And in terms of "business", the tax cuts, etc. are all about finding as many ways as they can for the foxes to guard the hen house. Its when the issues have become personal, such as gas prices, or their kids coming home from Iraq in body bags or critically wounded that the sheeple have slowly begun to be weaned off the * advertising jingles.

[tenshi816]

56. Yes, they're pros when it comes to campaigning.

It's just that after they win, they have no idea what to do next. The Republican way of governing is to be permanently on the campaign trail, trying to sell their snake oil to the public. It's all they know how to do.

[AX10]

4. A 30 seat gain for the Dems would allow them to successfully govern.

[struggle4progress]

9. R = W! Publicize those fundraising sneaks into town.

[Theduckno2]

11. The Criminal Types?

It seems that Republicans are starting to treat Bush like the low-life criminal he is. Sure, they accept the ill gotten fruits of their criminal conspiracy (campaign funds) but they don't want him at their homes where people might see them together.

Serves them right! :)

[TexasLawyer]

13. And yet Karl Rove remains confident of GOP victory in 2006!!!

[wordpix2]

40. the guy is delusional and heading for jail in reality

[Vogon_Glory]

14. While I Hope, I Still Worry

While I still hope for Democratic sweeps of both the House and the Senate, I still worry that somehow the GOP propaganda/smear machine will convince enough of today's adult ADD neo-booboisie to vote Republican.

The only thing that may be able to put the brakes on the so-called "conservative" agenda might be the sort of massive movements like what happened in Argentina under Juan Peron or is currently happening in Venezuela. I genuinely worry if fair elections are even possible these days in much of the USA.

[Skittles]

20. I'd settle for those ignorants to be disillusioned enough to not vote

yes

[Vogon_Glory]

38. From your keyboard to G*d's computer monitor, Amen. n/t

[C_U_L8R]

15. I'll feel better after we've won

Rove loves to plant these types of stories
to make his opponents over-confident
while he stirs his base up to a slow
but violent boil. You can see it happening.

No rest until we win !!!!!

[BleedingHeartPatriot]

21. So true. Katie Couric interviewing Tony Snow talked about a "devastating"

blow to the legislative repugs if these poll numbers continue their slide. And her inflection was the same she would use to say the Katrina was a "devastating" storm. As if the pubs losing control of house is a very undesirable situation for the country.

This is why talking impeachment now could be a problem. It will work ot convince the 20-25% of the population that would do anything to keep from being governed by the "Godless" dems to get out and vote in droves to save their holy leader and his minions.

Watch for it. MKJ

[AnneD]

22. Until the GOP

starts to distance themselves...I mean really distance themselves via revive the ethics committee to do some serious investigation, stop rubber stamping Bush's power grab, and start passing some bills that benefit the American people and not their donors- the GOP candidate's fate will be inextricably tied to Bush. If the GOP thinks they went through hard times after Nixon-it will be far worse post Bush. The Dems can't bring impeachment up now, but if the GOP is smart and thinking of their future-they need to suck it up and start impeachment and criminal investigations for the good of their party and America. The moderate GOP need to regain control of their party.

[ktlyon]

35. I agree

if repugs investigate impeach him now they might save some seats.

[calimary]

53. Yep, they might, if only...

Most of 'em will be nursing a BIG denial hangover for awhile. But if he remains a drag on their party, some of 'em may come around. Watch and see how many of them will have "scheduling conflicts" when bushie comes to town.

[reprobate]

30. BHP, I disagreed with Palosi's stand, but now I think I agree.

After thinking about what she said - we will investigate, but have no plans to impeach, to paraphrase, I think she hit just the right note. She quieted the repugs who were agitating that Dems would start impeachment, while at the same time reassured Dems-at least those who could think, that before you can impeach, you must investigate to come up with charges that could be sustained, and that's what she's going to do.

I believe that was a masterful political move, and my estimate of her political acumen just went up several notches.

[moose65]

18. this is great news!

Hopefully it will be repeated around the country! Interesting how the article refers to Virginia Beach as a "suburb"! Virginia Beach is the largest city in Virginia! And like all large cities, it probably leans blue in spite of its military connections.

[bemildred]

19. Oh, it's those terrible, purist, punitive, far-left-wing activists!

:rofl::rofl:

[Autonomy]

23. Luckily for the GOP

they have Diebold: the Election Fixer-Upper!

[President Kerry]

25. No, FUCK no!

I'm tired of resigning ourselves to defeat over a voting machine. Everyone - EVERYONE - using Diebold in their district must become an activist, asking for detailed description of vote registration and counting, in writing, and at any sign of lack of cooperation, suing the company and the Local Election Committee. Have lawyers and voter rights activists on hand. Through a concentrated effort, we can keep this in the headlines.

We're not losing another goddamn election over a fucking computer. If we let them do it, we might as well leave the country and give up on democracy.

[Autonomy]

29. I agree with everything you said

I was being facetious, of course. Cynicism can be fun and a great stress-reliever! :P

[calimary]

50. Besides, elections can really only be effectively stolen if they're

close contests to begin with. If there's more than two points plus or minus 50 percent, it's harder. If you have larger, more lopsided margins going in, especially the way public opinion has consistently been running - QUITE lopsided, and for so long, it will be a LOT harder to excuse, justify, or ignore an election theft. People DON'T like bush anymore. Therefore, they're far less likely to give him an automatic pass or the benefit of the doubt. And as the public caves, the news media will not be able to avoid noticing. Which is why you see the Washington Post now using the term "bush effect" to describe how he's pulling his fellow republi-CONS down, how he's turned utterly radioactive. The news media will see this, report on it, seek comment and reaction and analysis, the public reads or hears or sees this, thus it reaffirms what they've already started to conclude, themselves. That's a cascade failure in the making. Self-fulfilling prophesy.

Couple that, also, with the mentality of some voters out there. They'll vote when they feel the surge of public support going their way. When it isn't, they're more apt to be fair-weather friends and say "oh, fuck it." It's like the fans who drop out on a team when that team starts losing. People like to side with a winner. Makes them feel like winners, too. Makes them feel like they were right, smart, correct, shrewd, prescient. You stick with a loser and that's what you ARE, too. There are people out there who feel, like my own dad did, that "if you're so smart, why aren't you rich?" Here, the corrolary is "if you're so smart, why isn't it working?" And, "if you're so smart, how come you're wrong?" And also, increasingly for the enemy, "if you're so smart, why aren't you WINNING?" It's all in the PERCEPTION.

And delightfully enough, the perception is turning AGAINST the GOP.

[Doctor_J]

27. Two non-parallels

1. Media control (was GOP then, is GOP now)
2. Voting fraud. In 94 we still had fair elections.

[Riverman]

31. ADD District 4 - Placer County, CA - DUMP DOOLITTLE!

[tptgrl]

36. Goodbye Losers

Yes! :toast:

I think there is a real chance this year to get rid of Doolittle, as well as Pombo. Both thought they were in with the in-crowd, but it worked against them instead.

The area is growing so fast, it needs representatives who can work for the people, not selfish interests.

[stepnw1f]

32. I Smell Blood

can I join? :evilgrin:

[gasperc]

42. run like we are 10pnts DOWN

no time to get overconfident, I'm excited but let's keep working our asses off

[calimary]

51. Yours is the most important post in this thread.

We can't afford to get complacent. EVEN AFTER WE WIN, which I'm growing increasingly convinced we will, we must NOT get overconfident, or complacent.

EXCELLENT point!

[RamboLiberal]

43. NYT: In House Races, More G.O.P. Seats Look Vulnerable

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/05/21/washington/21house.html?hp&ex=1148184000&en=e1863751c038aa1d&ei=5094&partner=homepage

For months, even in the face of an avalanche of bad news for Republicans, Democratic ambitions for capturing Congress have collided with an electoral map created to protect Republicans from ouster. Despite polls showing rising support for Democrats and scorn for Republicans, analysts have said Democratic hopes for big gains remain remote, because so few seats are in contention.

That appears to be changing.

Over the past week, a handful of once-safe Republican Congressional seats have come into play, and other Republican incumbents are facing increasingly stiff re-election battles, according to analysts, pollsters and officials in both parties. The change amounts to a slight but significant shift in the playing field, and a potentially pivotal change in the dynamics of this midterm election.

In a Republican primary in Pennsylvania on Tuesday, Representative Don Sherwood drew 56 percent of the vote against a little-known challenger, a display of weakness in a race that both parties now see as being in play. The Republican Congressional Campaign Committee has spent at least $1.9 million in the June 6 special election to replace Representative Randy Cunningham, who was forced out in an ethics investigation, in a California district that should be a cinch for Republicans.

On Friday, President Bush flew to the Congressional districts of two Republicans who had once seemed heading for easy re-election — Thelma Drake in Virginia and Geoff Davis in Kentucky — to help them raise money. A White House adviser said the decision to send Mr. Bush reflected concern about the challenges the first-term incumbents face.

[enid602]

44. Jefferson Davis

If a Republican named Geoff Davis is having trouble getting reelcted in the South, then things must be getting a bit dicey for the Republicans.

[leftchick]

45. well in NC, GA and FL they can depend on the voting machines

:(

[AlinPA]

46. Time to crank up the old anti-Gay Marriage, flag burning, "Under God"

in the pledge and "they are taking our guns away!!!"

[jam6000]

52. don't forget Illinois

I know this may not seem like a doable race...but I would recommend paying attention to what's happening in the 14th CD...Dennis Hastert's district. The Speaker has been taking money from Jack Abramoff, and is deeply indebted to the oil and pharmaceutical lobbies. That, coupled with the fact that's he's been carrying water for the Bush administration and therefore has been party to some disastrous decisions make Hastert the poster child for everything that's wrong with Congress. A campaign which reminds voters that Hastert and Bush (Bastert, if you choose) are the ones responsible for a failing policy in Iraq and a ballooning budget deficit, and you might be able to convince disillusioned Republicans to either vote democratic or at least stay home in protest. I know it's working for me, and I've voted republican more often than not. Speaking of voters, Hastert's district has changed demographically over the last few years. More people from more liberal areas of Illinois (namely Cook County) have landed here, and there are many more Latino voters than before. It just seems to me that if the DNC would just send someone out here, or at least conduct some polling, they might find this is worth making and investment in. Imagine being able to take down the Speaker of the House! Imagine also a campaign that not only does that, but ties up Hastert and his campaign war chests so that he can't spend money or campaign on behalf of other Republicans.

The democrats have a candidate...John Laesch...young, a veteran, and someone who's been working hard to canvass the district and get a little name recognition. So far, he's way off the radar screens of the DNCCC, or even the local Democratic organizations here! Laesch needs a good manager, some fundraising, and press. I'm just a volunteer, but I've worked in enough campaigns to know that this one can take off, but the foundation has to be laid now.

[JPZenger]

54. 3,200 Write-in Votes for Dem for PA 15th - Was Unopposed

The 15th District of PA was supposed to be an unopposed re-election for freshman Republican Charlie Dent. The two Dems who said they would run didn't submit nomination petitions. A last minute effort was then made to get a Democratic candidate on the ballot. With little publicity, 3,200 Democrats wrote in the name of Charlie Dertinger as a Dem opponent, earning him a place on the ballot in November.

This act was particularly amazing because all of the precincts were using electronic voting machines for the first time - so everyone had to learn how to type in a write-in vote. Also, Dertinger is a political newcomer with little name recognition. The Dems REALLY wanted a choice in November.