FEMA: New Madrid earthquake preparedness is agency priority

[HeeBGBz]

FEMA: New Madrid earthquake preparedness is agency priority

snip

"ST. LOUIS - Preparing for a catastrophic earthquake along the New Madrid fault is a priority, a FEMA official said Friday before a congressional field hearing on government readiness to handle natural disasters.

"New Madrid is at the top of the list," Michel Pawlowski, section chief of the Federal Emergency Management Agency, said. "It's our primary objective."

Pawlowski told a congressional committee that FEMA has "significant concerns" for the potential of a catastrophic earthquake equal in magnitude to those that struck parts of the Mississippi River Valley in 1811-1812, and again in 1895. The estimated magnitude of those earthquakes is 7.5 or 8. The probability of a magnitude 6 or larger earthquake is 25 percent to 50 percent over the next 50 years.

Even a magnitude 7 earthquake would destroy more than 60 percent of buildings in St. Louis and Memphis, Tenn., because most buildings predate building requirements aimed at resisting the shock, officials estimate."

I don't know about anyone else but this creeps me out. Like the war games before 911.

[babylonsister]

1. Primary objective??? What about Katrina's survivors who have

yet to be helped? What kind of agency is this that can just walk away in the middle of a job that's far from complete? :grr: :grr:

[HeeBGBz]

3. They just wrote off Katrina

Gotta look to the future and forget the past, doncha know.

[rodeodance]

26. Tag line on Fox today"-Should handouts be stopped to N. O.?

(paraphasing)-----anyway--some quests said yes--pull yourself up by your bootstraps. etc etc.

[HeeBGBz]

30. I wish anyone who spouts that shit

Should be forced to live on a damaged lot and sleep in a tent for a couple of months. Watch them pull themselves out of that.

[dysfunctional press]

17. they can't just write off preparedness until all of katrina is cleaned up-

that jobs going to take years- and nothing in the article says that they're just going to "walk away" from the katrina stuff, anyway- it's a large multi-facted department that's responsible for more than just one hurricane's mess.

[HereSince1628]

2. I'd like to know how that risk assessment is done...

I guess the value of New Orleans is so depressed it dropped it on the list.
What is Chertoff planning to do? Order a fleet of ice trucks from Maine?

[EuroObserver]

8. You're joking.

The destruction on the Gulf Coast, economists say, provided a HUGE BOOST to US GDP (all that reconstruction spending, get it?)

[Auntie Bush]

43. Plus it got rid of a lot of Dem voters replaced by future rich GOPers.

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

4. If this creeps you out, don't read the details of the 1812 earthquake

The Ohio and Mississippi rivers flowed backwards. They cut new channels far from their old ones. Islands sank, and parts of the town of New Madrid disappeared, never to be seen again. Reelfoot Lake in TN was formed. The only reason the loss of life wasn't greater was that not very many people lived there then. I used to live in Southern IL and even in the 80s we had to have earthquake proof new schools and were required to have earthquake drills. There are more fault lines in the area than the New Madrid fault, and these have been active in my lifetime, to the extent that they have done major structural damage. If the Big One hits, which apparently happens every 200 years or so, there will be damage and devistation from St. Louis to Memphis.

[HeeBGBz]

10. Oh, I am well aware of the 1811-1812 quakes

Memphis would sink or collapse because of the soil its built upon. St Louis would be in terrible shape also.

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

12. It's worse than that

There are still scars from the 1812 quake to be found in Southern Illinois if you know where to look. The crazy thing about this planning business is that they've been at it for over 20 years now-I was teaching Illinois history at the time, and remember paying attention to the calls for plans to be made. The Lawrenceville Fault has also caused damage as far east as Indiana, and there are small quakes at New Madrid every day. And don't forget the levee system-that would likely fail. No problem in a time of drought, but if it is flood time, look out. Also remember that this will mess up the navagation system for a long time to come-multiply the port of New Orleans by a factor of at least 3.

[EuroObserver]

11. .

n/t

[OzarkDem]

5. More opportunities to give money to donors n/t

[enid602]

6. quake

Much of downtown Memphis is built on land reclaimed from the Mississippi; bad for earthquakes. The 1811 quake toppled buildings in Washington, DC. Much of the construction in all of the cities along the fault is unreinforced brick.

[SheilaT]

7. Actually, the New Madrid quakes

were extremely powerful, 8 point somethings. It's very difficult to estimate with a lot of accuracy so many years later, but they were felt as far away as Boston.

The first tremors were in December of 1811, and lasted well into the new year. There were a series of strong earthquakes, and the citizens of New Madrid, which was a very small community at the time, lived outdoors for several months in bitter cold weather, because the ground shook almost constantly. If anything similar were to happen today St. Louis and Kansas city would be destroyed, as well as many other cities in that part of the country.

It's difficult to assess how much damage would be done, because very few Europeans lived in that part of the country then, which means we don't have too much in the way of good records. That area was largely "uninhabited", meaning the Indians who lived there simply didn't count, so far as white people were concerned. More to the point, any records the indigenous people would have kept have long since vanished.

If you can get your hands on On Shaky Ground by John Nance, it has several excellent chapters on the New Madrid quakes. It is by far the best earthquake book I've ever read, and I've read most of them. It starts out with the Good Friday earthquake in Alaska in 1964 (did you know that the town of Valdez, Alaska, had to be completely relocated because of that earthquake?) and goes on with a very succinct description of plate tectonics. I can't recommend the book highly enough.

[rodeodance]

27. thanks.

[Frustratedlady]

9. That's scary news for me....

as I live along the path of that fault. The earthquake would be bad enough, but to be told that FEMA would be taking care of us, scares the beejeebers outta me.x(

[BiggJawn]

29. Yeah, me too.

Screw the "72 hours" worth of stuff the Red Cross advises keeping on hand, I'm stock-piling 3 months of shit.
And when that's gone, I'm headin' for the border.

[et in Arcadia ego]

13. heh..

Ironically, I first heard about the New Madrid fault last year from an online Russian Science publication..

They were wondering why American authorities were not more concerned with what they saw as a strong potential for cataclysmic destruction.

Rest easy now knowing that FEMA's on the job, YO..

[Solon]

16. Believe me, those around the Mississippi river valley know all about it.

the 1812 quake was one of the strongest on record for the lower 48, and having one now, with the way both Memphis, St. Louis, even Chicago are built up can be disasterous for our cities. We not only have to worry about the devastation from the actual quake, but the flooding that will result will probably wipe many cities off the map.

[Zynx]

37. Don't forget Kentucky Lake.

Otherwise known as a very large dammed river. Wouldn't want to count on that dam surviving a big earthquake in the New Madrid zone.

That basically means everyone in Paducah would be killed and the Mississippi would flood along its entire length.

[lovuian]

14. Ok I have to say this is a surprise...

evidentally this is definitely a big possibility...

[et in Arcadia ego]

15. links

Some other info sources:

http://news-service.stanford.edu/news/2000/october4/newmadrid-104.html

http://seismo.berkeley.edu/seismo/annual_report/ar02_03/node34.html

[area51]

33. Welcome to DU, et in Arcadia ego.

The rest of this is a general comment.

So, FEMA is on top of planning for a possible New Madrid quake? Boy, that makes me feel all better considering the bang-up job they did w/Katrina.... :scared: :mad:

[goforit]

41. Welcome!!!...Tell me. I can't quite understand the jargon from Berkley,

What does this recent information mean?

[fed-up]

18. Fema doesn't care if the San Andreas goes 1st as it's in a BLUE state n/t

[Zynx]

35. Actually, New Madrid is capable of killing far more people

California builds with earthquakes in mind - most new construction there is absurdly difficult to knock down. Most of Memphis and St. Louis don't build, period. A ton of the structures down there are still "original" construction, i.e. badly reinforced or unreinforced brick. Plus Memphis is build on a sand bar that would almost certainly liquify.

The rock in the eastern part of the US also transmits seismic waves far better than California - a LA or San Fran earthquake will only effect LA or San Fran, while a New Madrid earthquake will gut Memphis and St.Louis and do serious damage as far as Chicago and Cincy.

You are basically talking an event that would seriously damage several entire STATES.

[Zynx]

39. To wit: Shaking map from a Mag 6. Have a look at this.

[ben_thayer]

19. Here's an interesting site

that I check frequently

http://folkworm.ceri.memphis.edu/recenteqs/Quakes/quakes0.html

[Richard Steele]

20. Just like being prepared for a hurricane striking NO was a 'top priority'?

We all recall that a NO hurricane had been on their "top priority"
list for years...
and look how well they handled that!

[951-Riverside]

21. Let me guess "Pawlowski" is yet another preppie white jackass

FEMA is WAY too white for my taste.

[Gman]

22. So now everyone in St. Louis can sleep very well tonight

knowing FEMA is on the ball.

[theHandpuppet]

23. This is what worries me, folks...

If the Yellowstone Caldera ever blows again, we can kiss our collective asses a big sayonara.

Take a look at the seismicity maps for the past week at this link: http://www.seis.utah.edu/HTML/YPEvents7Days.html
I have this site bookmarked and check it regularly, at least twice a week. I have never seen a cluster of quakes appear as indicated on the map for this past week. Small quakes but still an anomaly that concerns me.

Edited to add: Please note the quakes indicated have all occurred within the past day.

[Virginia Dare]

31. Agreed, this is probably the most potentially devastating

natural disaster facing this country, doesn't get much press. It could literally blow the U.S. apart.

[FlaGranny]

38. Actually, it would affect the entire world -

It would affect a great part of the US first, but then over about a year or so, cause the earth to cool, crop faliure, famine, and a great deal of the population (human and otherwise) of the entire planet to die from starvation. Not a pretty picture, but it has happened before and will probably happen again. It is just one of the earth's ways of occasionally cleaning house.

[DELUSIONAL]

24. Militarize the state and start shooting blacks & poor folk --

That in essence will be the (real) plan.

Lock down the area and don't let anyone escape -- except in a body bag.

We saw what the bushie gang did in New Orleans and they had plenty of warning.

An earthquake has essentially no warning. Except the warning that "the big one" could come anytime. Ask the folks on the West Coast.

[goforit]

25. Hmmmm.....Bush is looking for another natural disaster to go his way?

Interesting set of objectives.

[lovuian]

28. and St.Louis and Memphis the heartland .......where goods

and transport go through for the nation... home of predominantly Republicans who are ticked off at Bush right now and may go democratic...

[AngryAmish]

32. It better be

I sure don't want to be shook up.

[Oreegone]

34. This is surprising news?

Guess we really have no terrorist attacks to worry about, This is new news? Pick a fault any fault. Not that I don't sympathize with the people in the region, but this seems a far stretch when hurricane season is just around the corner and we haven't even cleaned up from the last one.

[Zynx]

36. Ahh, New Madrid. National devastation only 10% of the US knows about

Basically, a 8.0 or worse would instantly kill at least a hundred thousand people and devastate most of Missouri, Arkansas, Kentucky (bye-bye Kentucky Lake) and Tennessee, while doing serious damage to Illinois, Indiana and Ohio.

What makes it worse is virtually nothing in that part of the country was built with earthquakes in mind.

[goforit]

42. Well, true, but some of the newer buildings have been built by code.

[davsand]

40. If New Madrid cuts loose I am not waiting for FEMA to help.

I watched how FEMA f**ked up the "help" for the Gulf Coast and I am not waiting around to see it happen here. My family will be in a car (any car!) headed for someplace else just as soon as I can round them up...

Several years ago I knew a guy who was doing a Post Doc in Engineering. His primary focus was on earthquake prone areas and the structures located in those zones.

I asked him about New Madrid one time and he told me that if it ever did give a big shake that there were not many places anywhere in about a 6 or 7 state area that were gonna be safe from damage, with much of it being catastrophic to the cities in those areas.

I kinda questioned hm on it--after all this is Central Illinois and I can remember exactly two times in my life that I've ever felt any kind of seismic event. His response was something to the effect that the two I can remember were still WELL below the magnitude that is possible with that fault line.

He pointed out that there have been events on New Madrid pretty regularly that were not noticed except by seismographers, and that may be the best cause for optimism with New Madrid. In his opinion, the faults that DON'T shake sometimes are actually more dangerous because when they let go--it can be a really BIG adjustment all in one or two heaves.

He also commented on the fact that even tho we've known for a long time that New Madrid was there, the lack of noticeable movement has let builders and the lawmakers that create zoning and building codes, avoid improving building design and construction to withstand earthquakes.

He was not optimistic about Memphis and St. Louis high rises along with bridges, sewage treatment plants, Dams, and Nuke power plants in that multi state area if anything serious ever happens with New Madrid...

I dunno if he was right about it all, but I do know that I sure as hell don't want to be hanging out here waiting for FEMA to save me and mine.



Laura

[lovuian]

44. Well the big logistic problem is the Mississippi & Missouri Rivers

St.Louis is surrounded by them you need to cross bridges from Illinois to get to it and bridges over the Missouri to get to the west of it ....... which means that going south is going into the damage ridden areas of Memphis... going North you have to cross bridges... thats what they are worried about
access... probably only by air and I haven't a clue how the airport is going to be...

and on top of it Missouri has a terrible reputation for its roads and bridges maintenance...

its going to be tough to get out if those bridges are broken and unsafe