WP: Scientists Debate Issue of Climate's Irreparable Change(Tipping Point)

[Pirate Smile]

Scientists Debate Issue of Climate's Irreparable Change
Some Experts on Global Warming Foresee 'Tipping Point' When It Is Too Late to Act

By Juliet Eilperin
Washington Post Staff Writer
Sunday, January 29, 2006; Page A01

Now that most scientists agree human activity is causing Earth to warm, the central debate has shifted to whether climate change is progressing so rapidly that, within decades, humans may be helpless to slow or reverse the trend.

This "tipping point" scenario has begun to consume many prominent researchers in the United States and abroad, because the answer could determine how drastically countries need to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions in the coming years. While scientists remain uncertain when such a point might occur, many say it is urgent that policymakers cut global carbon dioxide emissions in half over the next 50 years or risk the triggering of changes that would be irreversible.

There are three specific events that these scientists describe as especially worrisome and potentially imminent, although the time frames are a matter of dispute: widespread coral bleaching that could damage the world's fisheries within three decades; dramatic sea level rise by the end of the century that would take tens of thousands of years to reverse; and, within 200 years, a shutdown of the ocean current that moderates temperatures in northern Europe.

The debate has been intensifying because Earth is warming much faster than some researchers had predicted. James E. Hansen, who directs NASA's Goddard Institute of Space Studies, last week confirmed that 2005 was the warmest year on record, surpassing 1998. Earth's average temperature has risen nearly 1 degree Fahrenheit over the past 30 years, he noted, and another increase of about 4 degrees over the next century would "imply changes that constitute practically a different planet."

"It's not something you can adapt to," Hansen said in an interview. "We can't let it go on another 10 years like this. We've got to do something."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/01/28/AR2006012801021.html

edit to add - This article goes well with the NYT article from Saturday.

Climate Expert Says NASA Tried to Silence Him

By ANDREW C. REVKIN
Published: January 29, 2006

The top climate scientist at NASA says the Bush administration has tried to stop him from speaking out since he gave a lecture last month calling for prompt reductions in emissions of greenhouse gases linked to global warming.

The scientist, James E. Hansen, longtime director of the agency's Goddard Institute for Space Studies, said in an interview that officials at NASA headquarters had ordered the public affairs staff to review his coming lectures, papers, postings on the Goddard Web site and requests for interviews from journalists.

Dr. Hansen said he would ignore the restrictions. "They feel their job is to be this censor of information going out to the public," he said.

-snip-
"Communicating with the public seems to be essential," he said, "because public concern is probably the only thing capable of overcoming the special interests that have obfuscated the topic."

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/01/29/science/earth/29climate.html?hp&ex=1138510800&en=0a858f5230677507&ei=5094&partner=homepage

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x2071526

I certainly hope the new documentary showing Gore's Global Warming presentation gets a HUGE distribution deal. It needs to be seen far and wide.

Al Gore surfaces with a global warning

By Mark Caro
Tribune entertainment reporter

PARK CITY, Utah --
Former Vice President Al Gore said he has presented his global-warming multimedia lecture about 1,000 times over the past two decades, but now he wants to up the ante, broaden his audience, kick the movement into a higher gear.

So he went to the Sundance Film Festival.

Gore has been here before, showing up twice in recent years to boost his cable TV network and otherwise walk the streets, prompting many a double take. But this time he actually is starring in a film, "An Inconvenient Truth," Davis Guggenheim's documentary that shows Gore's sobering presentation along with some behind-the-scenes musings and travels.

The film, produced by Hollywood progressives Lawrence Bender and Laurie David, is straight-up advocacy, intended to educate viewers about the dangers of global warming and to light a fire under like-minded folks who may appreciate the problem but not its urgency.

http://metromix.chicagotribune.com/movies/mmx-0601270116jan27,1,3571952.story

[mom cat]

1. And do not believe that Bushco doesn't know or doesn't believe.

The DOD report several years ago proved that they know and that they take it seriously.
They must think that the elite have a way to survive...they damned sure don't care is the rest of us do.

[anotherdrew]

6. they know but his solution doesn't involve us existing, and that's secret

so the charade of fake denial continues....

[nofurylike]

8. yes. eom

[and-justice-for-all]

18. Global Warming is clearly happening...

I have lived in Indiana all my life, I can remember when it snowed and snowed alot. As I reflect on the past, I can see how it snowed less and less every year.

Early this morning, 7am, it was 50 degress and there was a thunderstorm that rolled through. its fucking JANUARY!!! Today, its still abnormally warm. We have had NO snow accumulation, nothing that stuck and no hard freezes.

Um, Hello...something is FUCKED UP HERE!!!

Its come clear to me now, we need a revolution.

[krkaufman]

19. Had a thunderstorm here in Chicago a few weeks back....

... and I thought it was very odd. Couldn't recall any previous thunderstorms in the middle of Winter.

[bearfan454]

20. Here in Central Tx it is very weird weather too.

This is the hottest winter ever since I have lived here beginning in 1984. It only got cold one weekend for deer hunting. It was in the 70's and 80's almost every weekend during deer hunting. That is crazy. It never does that. The weather patterns are definitely changing all over the planet no doubt.

[lovuian]

2. I think Bush Knows and is trying to take advantage of the

global warming...

Its going to be such a tragedy...

[Pirate Smile]

3. kick

[ancient_nomad]

4. Pentagon Report .....

Two years ago the Pentagon issued a report on global warming that was held under wraps before being released. It is quite chilling. If I remember correctly, Rummy's storm troopers have plans in place to deal with the population when it occurs.

Just found this from workingforchange.com via google:

snip:

Dryly entitled "An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and Its Implications for United States National Security," the report reads like the plot summary of the upcoming Dennis Quaid doomsday flick, "The Day After Tomorrow," in which global warming pushes the planet to the edge of anarchy and annihilation.

But this scenario is not science fiction. According to the Pentagon study, the question is not if abrupt climate change will happen, but when. It could be, according to the report's authors, as soon as the next three years, with the most devastating fallout potentially occurring between 2010 and 2020.

At that point, we could find ourselves in the midst of a new ice age in which mega-droughts devastate the world's food supply, drinkable water becomes a luxury worth going nuclear over, 400 million people are forced to migrate from uninhabitable areas, and riots and wars for survival become commonplace.

continued at link:

http://tinyurl.com/bfx7q

Chilling and frightening. They know it's just around the corner, and have plans to deal with it - us. Do they do anything to curb global warming...oh, NO! Chimpy's Cabal just keeps making more money ruining our planet. Sad and disgusting.

[Pirate Smile]

5. Thanks for the link. Here is more:

"But the Bush White House remains unwilling to address -- or even acknowledge -- this looming peril. Instead, the oiligarchs in the administration continue to fiddle while the atmosphere starts to burn, routinely ignoring scientific evidence and international consensus, and casting a questioning eye on the very idea, let alone the fact, of global warming. It's a stance that has warmed the hearts -- globally, no doubt -- of the Bush Pioneers and Rangers in the oil and energy industry, making them feel very generous indeed.
As last week's release of a scathing letter signed by 60 prominent scientists -- including 20 Nobel laureates and former science advisers to both Republican and Democratic administrations -- makes clear, the Bush administration has made an art out of ignoring science. Particularly when it comes to the issue of global warming.

Who can forget the president's famous CO2 flip-flop, or the way the White House tried to force so many changes to a section of an EPA report dealing with climate change that Christie Todd Whitman finally threw up her hands and decided to eliminate the section on global warming altogether?

One of the defining traits of leadership is the ability to see not just the crisis right in front of you, but the one lurking around the next corner. Bush's steadfast refusal to act upon the potential desolation that awaits us if we do nothing to confront global warming makes him a major national security liability.

Everyone in the Bush administration acted shocked and surprised when 9/11 happened -- even though there had been red flags aplenty warning of al-Qaida's evil intentions. Well, let there be no surprise this time. We have all been warned."

[SlipperySlope]

14. The actual report

I always prefer to go to the source, instead of reading somebody else's summary:

http://www.gbn.com/GBNDocumentDisplayServlet.srv?aid=26231&url=%2FUploadDocumentDisplayServlet.srv%3Fid%3D28566

[PSPS]

7. You can see the propaganda in the article's first sentence

Right out of the gate, this article starts, "Now that most scientists agree human activity is causing Earth to warm..."

Now that's just a soft regurgitation of a RW talking point, implying that this is an unknown, open to debate.

"Most scientists" my ass. The fact is that the scientific community is in unanimous agreement about global warming. The only "exception" is a group of two or three "scientists" who claim there is no global warming, or that it is only a "minor." "natural" event. Of course, the fact that they are funded by big oil doesn't stop the propaganda ministry and its MSM ally from trotting them out whenever the issue is discussed.

[SlipperySlope]

13. If two or three disagree...

If two or three disagree then it isn't unanimous.

S. Fred Singer, Richard Lindzen, Robert C. Balling, etc, aren't crackpots - and they dissent from the above mentioned conclusions.

I agree that it is probably happening, but claiming support is unanimous is overstating the case. The serious scientific reports I've read state probabilities instead of asserting that humans simply are the cause. As it stands, it is a statistical problem, so probabilities are probably the best way to analyize it.

[PSPS]

16. You're kidding, right?

Singer, Lindzen, etc., in fact, ARE crackpots. Do you remember the "Scientific Integrity in the Public Policy Process" fiasco, where they were on the pad of big tobacco and Sun Myung Moon?

But that's the point I'm making. You get a few charlatans who are willing to say anything for the right amount of money, and suddenly you've fabricated a "scientific disagreement" when, in fact, there isn't any at all in the legitimate and serious scientific community.

On the other hand, you can still find people who postulate that the sun actually revolves around the Earth. Does that make it a "scientific disagreement?"

[seasat]

17. Just to add to your comment, Here's a list of their current funding

“SKEPTIC”
FINANCIAL BACKING
NOTES
Dr. S. Fred Singer
(Formerly opposed CFC controls and wrongly argued that ozone depletion was not happening.)
ARCO, Exxon, Shell Oil, Sun Oil, Unocal
Widely quoted by Wall Street Journal and Washington Post. He has not had a single article accepted for any peer-reviewed scientific journal for over 15 yrs.

Prof. Patrick Michaels (U. Virginia and Cato Institute)
Western Fuels ($63K) German Coal Mining Association ($49K), Edison Electric Institute ($15K), and Cyprus Minerals ($440K)
His newsletter World Climate Report (funded by Western Fuels) is sent to journalists. His work is “a catalog of misrepresentation and misinterpretation" according to IPCC & NCAR scientist Prof. Tom Wigley

Dr. Robert Balling (ASU)
1991-95: British Coal Corporation ($75K), German Coal Mining Association ($80K), Kuwaiti Foundation for the Advancement of Science ($48K).
Op Ed piece in Wall Street Journal said there was no problem with global warming. Kuwaiti Foundation funded Balling’s skeptic book on global warming.

Prof. Richard Lindzen (MIT)
Mostly has his own scientific reasons for “opposing” global warming.
But 1991 trip to Senate hearings was paid for by Western Fuels. Also has received funding from OPEC.
Chosen as the scientist to brief Bush cabinet members on global warming.
Has written opinion pieces for Wall Street Journal So far, his various negative feedback ideas on global warming have all been discredited in scientific journals. However, he pursues skepticism honorably through peer-reviewed journals.

(LINK)

Out of the 1000's of scientists involved in the global climate change debate, I've only heard of one that is a skeptic and is independent in his funding. That is Jeff Cristy of NASA. However, his argument that the lower atmosphere is not warming based on MSU sattellite readings has been disproven when problems with his calibration techniques were pointed out by several researchers. Other than him, I've yet to see any research by a reputable scientist that disproves the green house gas theory of global warming.

[blackhorse]

9. It won't take 200 years

... for the Gulf Stream to shut down. According to this article,

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2-1898178,00.html

the Stream has weakened a staggering THIRTY PER CENT over a 12 year study period.

Methinks there is a lot of misinformation on the coming climate change being put out.

Cheers

BH

[Pachamama]

10. Thanks for posting these...it just confirms what I have long believed and

that my father in law who is a now retired Professor has been talking about. I keep wondering often how the effects will take place....will the entire planet be covered in ice? Will climates be reversed (ie. will places that are cold become tropical and tropical become icy?) Where should one go that there will be drinking water available versus drought? These are questions I ask myself a lot....The weather patterns on this planet are erratic and crazy and they are only going to continue and get worse. On December 31st, I was hit by a "100 year flood" in my area....we sustained over $250K in damage...meanwhile we ask ourselves the question when is the next one? Should we raise the house and rebuild or sell and get out while we can? The last "100 year flood" was in 1982, only 23 years ago....are we going to start seeing these along with all the hurricanes in the gulf coast etc. only continue to increase?

This is some serious shit folks and we have an administration that not only knows about it, they are contributing to it and covering it up....The fact that we are even getting this information (the little that is being communicated is the "tip of the iceberg"). The reality is things are probably far worse than any of us can imagine....with all the things we are dealing with, I don't know what any of us can do....

[Dirty Hippie]

11. The reason Bush does not care about this issue

is that as a fundamentalist he believes that Jesus will miraculously restore the earth to it's Eden state after the millennium.

This is why issues like clean air, depleted uranium, nuclear waste (or worse fallout) and global warming are of no concern.

I'm afraid science is no match for blind faith.

[Hekate]

12. Read up on Christian Reconstructionism--this is part of "God's plan"

There are a number of preconditions for Christ's return, according to these wackos. Israel must be "restored" to its "Biblical borders", and all kinds of hell will break loose upon the Earth, among other things. There will be a thousand years of oppression and general misery before the end. And much more in that vein.

In any case, once you look at the world through this lens, things like environmental catastrophe don't matter at all.

For those in the Bush admin who aren't so sure they believe all of the religious stuff, perhaps they believe that their wealth and power will insulate them from catastrophic events. And perhaps they are right. After all, how many factory owners' children live downwind of dad's chemical plant? The air and water might be foul for miles around, but sufficient money can certainly buy excellent filtration systems and a well-armed private militia.

Hekate
who prays for the ghosts of Adams and Jefferson to reincarnate right this minute

[Nothing Without Hope]

15. In fact, the Bush EPA continues to fight any control or even monitoring

of greenhouse gas emission and has even taken steps to black action by European nations on the Kyoto accord. See this thread, including a post in a reply:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x2404644
thread title (1-28-06 GD): LAT editorial on new outrages by the Bush EPA: "The Wrong-Way Agency"