STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday 25 January

[ozymandius]

Wednesday January 25, 2006

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 1090 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 1861 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 1561 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1522
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON January 24, 2006

Dow... 10,712.22 +23.45 (+0.22%)
Nasdaq... 2,265.25 +16.78 (+0.75%)
S&P 500... 1,266.86 +3.04 (+0.24%)
30-Year Bond 4.57% +0.04 (+0.84%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.39% +0.03 (+0.76%)
Gold future... 558.10 -0.60 (-0.11%)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie


PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Ike Iossif

PART ONE: THE UNITED STATES OF AMNESIA!

On 11-29-05 we made the following comment: "We continue to believe that the market is not about to "collapse"--at least not now. We expect support to hold, or maybe marginally violated, but there is nothing on the radar screen to suggest that the party is over, yet. It's an outright silly party considering that the SP is near 1300 despite the head winds directly ahead, but the market has been known to be able to stay silly longer than most rational people would expect. Moreover, we are entering the period during which the "Bonus Defenders" will be most active driving the market higher--with your money--in order to make sure that they will receive their bonuses at the end of the year. Of course, sometime in mid- to late- January when disappointing earnings and guidance sink the market, there will be hell to pay, but who cares? It will be the investors who will pay--through losses--not the "Bonus Defenders." (see commentary for November 2005)

Take a look at the article below that was posted on Yahoo on 1-11-06, and also take a look at the market action since earnings started to come out. Do I need to say anything else? Probably not, except one thing; I am not making today's remarks for the purpose of "bragging" how right I was, or how smart I am. I am making today's remarks to point out that somehow the United States of America has become the United States of Amnesia! Haven't the people of this fair land learned anything about Wall Street during the 2000-2002 debacle? Apparently not, because if they did, they would have continued to give their money to the "bonus defenders" to lose it on their behalf. A nation that stubbornly refuses to learn from history is always doomed to repeat it.

Wall Street Bonuses Hit $21.5 Billion
Yahoo! News - Business Jan. 11, 2006

Revenue at Wall Street firms rose 44.5 percent through the first three quarters of 2005, climbing to the highest level since 2000, the year when the stock market peaked, Hevesi's office said. The mergers-and-acquisitions business accounted for most of the surge.

-cut-

SUMMARY

Last week (1-13-06) we said, "One of the most important things when trying to decipher what the market is telling us, is to avoid getting fooled, which can happen rather easily! As we mentioned early on in the week, the markets could be at an "inflection point" and the rally could very well be over. However, both the current chart formation, and the pattern formation of the technical indicators, are identical to what we see right before either a rally termination, or right before a rejuvenation of the rally. Therefore, based upon the evidence at hand, it is early to make the determination with any degree of authority or certainty. If the first is true, we ought to see a close below last Tuesday's lows (Dow<10950, SP500<1283, NASDAQ<2300) sometime this week, followed by a subsequent close below support. If the second is true, we ought to see a close above last week's highs by mid-week. Stay long and keep half of your stops below Tuesday's lows, and the other half below support."

more...

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[54anickel]

62. Why Wall Street had a record year and you didn't

The S&P had a measly return of 4.9 percent. Securities firms gave out a record $21.5 billion in year-end bonuses. That's fair.

http://money.cnn.com/2006/01/25/magazines/fortune/pluggedin_fortune/index.htm

NEW YORK (FORTUNE) - It was, as you may have already heard, a record year for Wall Street pay. Securities firms in New York gave out $21.5 billion in end-of-year bonuses, according to the state comptroller's office. That's $125,500 per employee (although of course the money wasn't distributed anywhere near evenly).

The last time things were this good for Wall Street's traders and bankers, at the end of the Internet boom in 2000, the rest of the country got to share in the fun. In 2005, by contrast, the S&P 500 had a total return of only 4.9 percent. Wage and salary growth for most Americans lagged inflation. So how is it that almost all of the big investment banks managed to have their best year ever?

One possibility is that Wall Street is a leech upon the body economic, sucking out the lifeblood of domestic industry and excreting it as Lamborghinis and $20 million Manhattan apartments for a lucky few. This is a theory with venerable populist roots, and it has undergone a renaissance lately among Americans angry about outsourcing.

But even if you sympathize with that view, there remains the question of how Wall Street firms are able to get away with such behavior. If the big investment banks are earning unwarranted profits, won't competitors arise? Won't customers demand a better deal? And won't shareholders demand that the firms stop paying out half their revenues as employee compensation?

snip>

...They're profiting from their customers' comparative lack of knowledge. How long will customers put up with it? As long as they lack knowledge, one presumes.

more...

[ozymandius]

2. Today's Reports

Jan 25 10:00 AM Existing Home Sales Dec
Briefing Forecast 6.90M
Market Expects 6.87M
Prior 6.97M

Jan 25 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 01/20
Briefing Forecast NA
Market Expects NA
Prior 2741K

[UpInArms]

38. U.S. Dec. existing home sales fall 5.7% to 6.60mln rate

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38742.4169979282-858380874&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Sales of existing homes in the United States fell 5.7% in December to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.60 million, the lowest in nearly two years, the National Association of Realtors reported Wednesday. Sales were much weaker than the 6.89 million expected by economists. Sales have fallen three months in a row. "Speculators are pulling out," said David Lereah, chief economist for the realtor group. Inventories of unsold homes fell 4.4% to 2.80 million in December, a 5.1-month supply. Median prices increased 10.5% year-on-year to $211,000 in December. For all of 2005, 7.072 million homes were sold, the fifth annual record in a row. Prices increased 12.7% in 2005 to $208,700.

10:00am 01/25/06 NAR: SPECULATORS ARE PULLING OUT OF HOUSING MARKETS

10:00am 01/25/06 U.S. DEC. EXISTING HOME PRICES UP 10.5% YEAR-OVER-YEAR

10:00am 01/25/06 U.S. DEC. EXISTING HOME INVENTORY 5.1 MONTH SUPPLY

10:00am 01/25/06 U.S. 2005 EXISTING HOME SALES RECORD 7.07 MILLION

10:00am 01/25/06 U.S. DEC. EXISTING HOME SALES LOWEST SINCE MARCH 2004

10:00am 01/25/06 U.S. DEC. EXISTING HOME SALES WEAKER THAN 6.98M EXPECTED

10:00am 01/25/06 U.S. DEC. EXISTING HOME SALES FALL 5.7% TO 6.60MLN RATE

[UpInArms]

39. Chicago Fed national activity index lower in Dec

http://today.reuters.com/misc/PrinterFriendlyPopup.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=uri:2006-01-25T145929Z_01_CHB000135_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-FED-CHICAGO.XML

CHICAGO, Jan 25 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve Bank of
Chicago on Wednesday said its gauge of the national economy
fell in December as employment and sales-related indicators
lagged.

The Chicago Fed said its National Activity Index slipped to
0.08 in December from an upwardly revised 0.59 in November,
initially reported at 0.35.

The three-month moving average of the index was higher, at
0.55 in December after being at 0.26 in November.

Any reading above zero for the three-month average suggests
economic growth is above its historical trend. The index has
been above zero for much of the past 2-1/2 years, but dipped to
-0.20 in September in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina.

Two of the broad categories making up the Fed's index made
positive contributions in December while two made small
negative ones, the Fed said.

...more...

[UpInArms]

46. DOE Petroleum Inventories Report

10:31am 01/25/06 U.S. CRUDE STKS DOWN 2.3 MLN BRLS LAST WK: ENERGY DEPT

10:31am 01/25/06 U.S. DISTILLATE STKS UP 1.8 MLN: ENERGY DEPT

10:31am 01/25/06 U.S. GASOLINE STKS UP 3.2 MLN BRLS: ENERGY DEPT

[UpInArms]

48. U.S. CRUDE-OIL SUPPLIES UNEXPECTEDLY DECLINE

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38742.4407808102-858384500&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- The Energy Department said crude inventories fell 2.3 million barrels for the week ended Jan. 20 to total 319.1 million. That's 11% above the year-ago level, but most analysts had expected supplies to climb for the week. Distillate supplies rose 1.8 million barrels to 136.5 million. Motor gasoline stocks were up 3.2 million barrels at 214.8 million barrels. March crude fell 46 cents to $66.60 a barrel after a low of $66.25. February unleaded gas shed 3.44 cents to $1.71 a gallon. February heating oil lost 0.21 cent to $1.815 a gallon.

[UpInArms]

49. NYMEX oil falls further, U.S. stock rise expected

&cap=Oil%20tankers%20are%20seen%20next%20to%20a%20fuel%20station%20in%20Nigeria%27s%20capital%20Abuja%20January%2024,%202006.%20An%20armed%20gang%20dressed%20in%20police%20uniform%20attacked%20the%20offices%20of%20Agip%20oil%20company,%20a%20unit%20of%20Italy%27s%20ENI,%20in%20Nigeria%20on%20Tuesday%20and%2011%20people%20were%20killed,%20security%20and%20government%20sources%20said.%20It%20was%20not%20immediately%20clear%20if%20the%20attack%20was%20by%20the%20same%20militant%20group%20which%20is%20holding%20four%20foreign%20hostages%20and%20has%20staged%20a%20series%20of%20attacks%20on%20oil%20facilities%20in%20the%20world%27s%20eighth%20largest%20exporter%20over%20the%20past%20month.%20%20%20REUTERS/Afolabi%20Sotunde

TOKYO, Jan 25 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil futures slid below $67 on Wednesday, extending the previous day's slide, after forecasts that U.S. government data would show an increase in commercial oil stocks.

Prices were also pushed down by Saudi Arabia's assurance that it was ready to produce more oil if needed.

NYMEX crude for March delivery <CLc1> was trading down by 28 cents, or 0.42 percent, at $66.78 a barrel by 0042 GMT. Volume was relatively active for ACCESS electronic trading, at 2,483 contracts.

<snip>

In a Reuters survey, analysts forecast the data would show commercial crude stocks rose by an average 1.1 million barrels in the week to Jan. 20 from the previous week.

They also projected a 900,000 barrel rise in distillate stocks and a 1.3 million barrel increase in gasoline stocks.

U.S. demand for heating fuels is expected to be about 21 percent below normal this week due to warm weather, according to the U.S. National Weather Service.

...more...

[UpInArms]

50. Oil, oil-product supplies fall in latest week: API

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38742.4456993634-858385252&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- The American Petroleum Institute said crude inventories fell 1.8 million barrels for the week ended Jan. 20. Motor gasoline inventories were down 1 million barrels, the API said, and distillate stocks declined by 191,000 barrels. The Energy Department had reported increases in distillate and gasoline supplies.

[ozymandius]

3. Oil Prices Slide Below $67 Per Barrel

SINGAPORE - Crude-oil futures fell below $67 a barrel Wednesday on mild winter weather in the U.S. and expectations of rising fuel inventories there, although militant attacks in Nigeria and Iran's nuclear standoff with the West remained supply threats.

Light, sweet crude for March delivery fell 50 cents to $66.56 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract had fallen $1.04 Tuesday to settle at $67.06 a barrel.

-cut-

"It appears traders are preparing for what could be a bearish Department of Energy weekly supply report," Phil Flynn of Alaron Trading Corp. said in a research note.

The U.S. weekly petroleum supply snapshot to be released Wednesday is expected to show across-the-board increases in crude and refined product stocks, building further above-average levels, according to a Dow Jones Newswires survey of energy analysts.

more...

[EuroObserver]

8. Ecologists say experts reject Siberian oil route

MOSCOW, Jan 25 (Reuters) - A state-convened group of experts has rejected the proposed route for a key Russian oil pipeline to Asia because it would threaten Siberia's pristine Lake Baikal, ecological groups said late on Tuesday.

WWF and Greenpeace said 40 of the 52 experts whose opinion was canvassed by the government's technical supervisory committee (Rostekhnadzor) said the pipeline went too close to Baikal, and must be moved outside its catchment zone.

The decision could prove a blow for oil pipeline monopoly Transneft (TRNF_p.RTS: Quote, Profile, Research) which has been pushing the line as a way to expand exports to the Far East. Analysts said, however, it would not stop the pipe going ahead in some form.

"Until today it seemed that the oilmen and the traders in natural resources of our country had occupied all the authorities in Russia," Greenpeace said in a statement.

"It appears that is not the case, therefore there is hope that the situation in the country could improve."
...
The pipeline is due to deliver 80 million tonnes of oil a year (1.6 million barrels per day) to Asian markets and would be key to Russian plans to circumvent bottlenecks in selling its key export.

President Vladimir Putin, who is very sensitive to criticism, in July accused environmentalists of trying to stop the pipeline because they are in the pay of Western competitors.

/more ...

[wordpix2]

23. LOL,, Putin thinks environmentalists paid by "Western competitors"

Yeah, like western Big Oil loves to pay environmentalists around the world.

:thumbsdown: "President Vladimir Putin, who is very sensitive to criticism, in July accused environmentalists of trying to stop the pipeline because they are in the pay of Western competitors."

[EuroObserver]

15. Lukoil, Hydro question size of Iranian reserves

Russia's LUKOIL halves estimate for Iran block
LONDON, Jan 25 (Reuters) - Russian oil firm LUKOIL (LKOH.RTS: Quote, Profile, Research) said on Wednesday the Iranian Anaran block it owns jointly with Norwegian oil firm Hydro (NHY.OL: Quote, Profile, Research) contained about half the reserves it previously estimated the block held.

"Today the estimate of reserves is 500 million barrels and the prospect is to grow these reserves," Andrei Kuzyayev, president of LUKOIL Overseas, told an investors presentation in London, speaking through an interpreter.

In Oslo, Hydro disagreed with LUKOIL, saying the field contained at least a billion barrels.
...
LUKOIL said in December that the exploration block might contain up to 1 billion barrels of oil, a figure which was quickly questioned at the time by Hydro, which has 75 percent of Anaran to LUKOIL's 25 percent.

/more...

[EuroObserver]

17. Russia seeks further Norwegian cooperation

Russia sees Norway gas cooperation beyond Shtokman
MOSCOW, Jan 25 (Reuters) - Russia values Norwegian energy know-how so highly that it wants to cooperate with Norwegian energy companies beyond the huge Shtokman reserves in the Arctic Barents Sea, Russia's No.2 oil official said on Wednesday.

Sergei Oganesyan, head of Russia's Federal Energy Agency, said Russia wanted to see companies from the two countries undertaking joint oil and gas projects elsewhere around the world, not just on their home territory.

"This is a very important development for the near term," he told an Arctic oil and gas conference in Moscow.

Oganesyan's comments signalled that Russian officials were already looking at deeper involvement for Statoil (STL.OL: Quote, Profile, Research) and Hydro (NHY.OL: Quote, Profile, Research) , the two Norwegian firms bidding to take part in Shtokman, even though the results of that competition are not expected until March.

He said Russia wanted to develop offshore energy both in the Barents Sea and the Russian Far East, and he said it would be mutually beneficial if Norwegian companies were involved.

Norwegian firms had a wealth of experience in offshore drilling, subsea technology and environmental issues, he said.

/more...

[UpInArms]

21. Amerada Hess earnings double on oil, gas prices

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BEA666170%2DD125%2D43E3%2D9BB2%2D92914F6E07EC%7D&symbol=&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- A more than 100% increase in the sales price of natural gas and a strong contribution from refining and marketing led Amerada Hess to double its fourth-quarter profit from a year ago.

<snip>

In the market, Amerada Hess was able to sell its natural gas for an average of $11.75 per thousand cubic feet, up from $5.83 a year ago. Crude fetched an average of $34.09 a barrel compared with $27.31 in the fourth quarter of 2004.

Oil and gas production declined to 316,000 barrels a day, on a barrel-of-oil equivalent basis, from 346,000 barrels a day a year earlier. Lost production as a result of the hurricanes cut output by 19,000 barrels per day.

Refining and marketing earnings benefited from higher margins, rising to $229 million from $93 million in the year-earlier period. Refining profit improved to $83 million from $36 million a year ago, while marketing earnings more than doubled to $131 million from $64 million.

...more...

[UpInArms]

25. Survey finds gas prices are up 3 more cents this wk (up 9 cents last wk)

http://www.indystar.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060123/NEWS06/601230366/1012

Camarillo, Calif. -- Retail gas prices across the country jumped another 3 cents, following a 9-cent hike reported earlier this month, according to a survey released Sunday.

The weighted average price for all three grades climbed to $2.36 a gallon by Friday, said Trilby Lundberg, who publishes the semimonthly Lundberg Survey of 7,000 gas stations throughout the country.

Self-serve regular averaged $2.33 a gallon nationwide. Mid-grade cost $2.43 a gallon. The price for premium was $2.53.

[UpInArms]

28. ConocoPhillips net income rises 51%

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38742.3587591435-858371802&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- ConocoPhillips (COP) reported Thursday fourth-quarter net income of $3.68 billion, or $2.61 a share, compared with $2.43 billion, or $1.72 a share, in the year-ago quarter. Revenue rose to $52.2 billion from $40.1 billion. From continuing operations alone, ConocoPhillips would have earned $3.8 billion, or $2.69 a share, compared with $2.48 billion, or $1.76 a share, in the fourth quarter of 2004. Analysts polled by Thomson First Call expected ConocoPhillips to earn $2.62 a share on revenue of $49.8 billion.

[UpInArms]

42. March Crude @ $66.58 bbl - Feb NatGas @ $8.60 mln btus

10:10am 01/25/06 MARCH CRUDE FALLS 48C TO $66.58/BRL AHEAD OF U.S. STK DATA

10:10am 01/25/06 FEB NATURAL GAS DOWN 8.2C AT $8.60/MLN BTUS IN MORNING TRADE

[54anickel]

45. Military assault on Iran could cost U.S. dearly

http://www.iht.com/articles/2006/01/22/news/strike.php#

Diplomats around the world keep repeating the mantra: There is no military option when it comes to slowing, much less stopping, Iran's presumed ambitions to get the Bomb. The Europeans say so. The Chinese, who need Iran's oil, and the Russians, who make billions supplying Iran's civilian nuclear business, say so emphatically.

Even the hawks in the Bush administration make no threats. When Vice President Dick Cheney was asked last week, in a television interview, if the United States might ever resort to force to stop Iran, he handled the question as if it, too, were radioactive.

"No president should ever take the military option off the table," he said, carefully avoiding the kind of language he once used to warn Saddam Hussein in Iraq. "Let's leave it there."

Cheney, it seemed, was trying to sow just enough ambiguity to make Iran think twice. Which raises two questions. If diplomacy fails, does America have a military option? And what if it doesn't?

snip>

"Could we do it?" one administration official who was deeply involved in planning the Iraq invasion said recently. "Sure. Could we manage the aftermath? I doubt it."

more...

[AnneD]

58. Morning Marketeers,

:donut: Gas gas gone up a tad here, we are at $2.14 per now at the Citgo. But boy are people hollering about their utility bills. We are chugging along, living below our means, paying off debt, and trying to figure how to preserve our capital. We have been scoping out houses, there is such a great gap between rent and house notes. I am glad we don't own frankly. The fluctuations don't send us over the edge like it does our house owning friends.
Happy hunting and watch out for the bears....

[EuroObserver]

4. Tokyo little changed; persisting system volume concerns

Tokyo shares edge up, upside capped due to TSE system concerns
(Kyodo) _ (EDS: ADDING INFO) Tokyo stocks advanced Wednesday but most of the early gains were erased in the afternoon amid market concerns about the reliability of the Tokyo Stock Exchange's computerized trading system.

The 225-issue Nikkei Stock Average was up 2.11 points, or 0.01 percent, to 15,651.00. The Tokyo Stock Price Index of all First Section issues on the Tokyo Stock Exchange tacked on 6.03 points, or 0.37 percent, to 1,618.46.

Reflecting continued gains in U.S. shares overnight, the Tokyo market got off to a solid start and gains widened gradually toward the end of the morning session, briefly lifting the benchmark Nikkei more than 200 points from the previous day's closing.

But most of the early gains were wiped out in the afternoon as the balance of sell and buy orders for Livedoor indicated a huge volume of trading would be settled later in the day, making investors worry about whether the TSE's system could handle the stock's trades without causing any serious problems, brokers said.
...
In an unprecedented move, the bourse limited daily trading hours for Livedoor stock to between 1:30 p.m. and 3 p.m., starting Wednesday, for fear that its system might be swamped by a deluge of trade orders for the stock. The bourse began accepting trade orders for the issue from 8:00 a.m. as usual.
...
Investors were also reluctant to push the upside ahead of the upcoming third quarter earnings reports from major firms.

Sony and NEC are among the firms that will release their third quarter earnings later this week.

In terms of sector, real estate, shipping and steel issues were higher while information, food and energy-related issues lost ground.
...
Oil and mining issues drew selling following an overnight fall in crude oil futures prices in New York, with Nippon Oil falling 15 yen to 883 yen and Inpex losing 40,000 yen to 1,090,000 yen.

Softbank was the most heavily traded issue by value. It fell 50 yen to 3,590 yen.

Mitsubishi Motors was the day's volume leader, up 8 yen to 249 yen.

Advancing issues led decliners 995 to 585, with 88 shares ending unchanged.

Trading volume on the TSE's main section rose to 2,147.20 million shares from Tuesday's 1,588.39 million shares.

The TSE's Second Section index rose 25.07 points, or 0.50 percent, to 5,076.21 on a volume of 183.01 million shares. In Osaka, the near-term March Nikkei 225 index futures contract rose 40 points to 15,700. /more...

[EuroObserver]

5. European markets, currency happier this morning

Euro, stocks gain after upbeat German data
Wed Jan 25, 2006 05:47 AM ET
LONDON, Jan 25 (Reuters) - Further signs of strength in the euro zone's biggest economy boosted share prices on Wednesday and propelled the euro back towards a four-month high against the dollar.

German business sentiment surged close to a six-year high in January, according to a survey by the Munich-based Ifo institute, reinforcing expectations the region's recovery is gathering pace.

The rise, the fourth in the past five months, helped lift Europe's FTSEurofirst 300 stock index more than 0.5 percent to 1,284.88 points after closing the previous day at a 2006 low.
...
"There is a definite sense of economic spring in the air in Germany," said David Brown, an economist at Bear Stearns International. "This should be a massive confidence boost to recovery expectations and it should vindicate the ECB's view that euro zone rates must press higher."
...
The euro rose to $1.2323 after the Ifo survey, coming within a whisker of levels not seen since September.
.,..
European shares were in upbeat mood even before the German data as a firm finish on Wall Street, reassuring earnings and crude oil's drop below $67 a barrel gave a sense that risk aversion was easing.

Mining stocks were among the biggest gainers after copper prices touched a record high and data showed a metal-hungry China continuing to expand strongly.

China's resource-hungry economy expanded by a faster-than-expected 9.9 percent in 2005, setting the stage for what officials say is likely to be another year of powerful growth.

Benchmark three-month London copper hit a record high of $4,680 per tonne.

Gold was steady at around $558.50 a troy ounce, lacking fresh impetus to breach a key resistance level that could help to propel the metal back towards last week's 25-year highs. /more...

[EuroObserver]

9. European markets opened 0.3% - 0.5% higher

Bourses rise as oil falls below $67
Last Update: 1/25/2006 4:05:17 AM
European bourses climbed at the start of trade as oil prices fell below $67 a a barrel, Wall Street ended higher and miners were expected to be buoyed by record copper prices. The FTSE Eurofirst 300 rose 0.4 per cent to 1,282.08 with the Xetra Dax up 0.5 per cent to 5,360.12, the Paris CAC-40 gaining 0.3 per cent 4,765.92 and the FTSE 100 up 0.5 per cent to 5,662.9. The Eurofirst 300 ended 0.29 per cent down on Tuesday as a chemical stock rally sparked by Linde’s approached for BOC and gains by carmakers led by DaimlerChrysler failed to offset weakness in telecoms, resources and banks. Oil eased with a barrel of Nymex West Texas Intermediate down 48 cents to $66.58 for March delivery. Copper hit a record $4,680 on Tuesday, but was trading easier at $4,665.50, $0.3 above its kerb close of the previous session.

London higher as BOC continues to climb
Last Update: 1/25/2006 4:18:53 AM
London’s equities market made gains in opening trade on Wednesday, as BOC continued to climb after Linde confirmed details of its unsolicited takeover approach. The FTSE 100 started the session with a 0.5 per cent rise taking the blue chip index to 5,661.5 and the FTSE 250 was 0.6 per cent higher at 8,977.9 as housebuilders advanced after Crest Nicholson reported increased half year sales. Shares in BOC extended the 21 per cent rise made during the previous session, opening up a further 5.1 per cent at £14.65, after Linde confirmed details of a £15 per share bid for its UK peer. The German speciality chemicals company’s approach values BOC at £7.6bn. BOC rejected the move, saying it did not recognise the value of the company. Rexam was 0.5 per cent higher at 503.5p after it extended its established presence in the fast growing Chinese market with the £42m acquisition of FangXin, a beauty products packaging maker.

[EuroObserver]

20. European markets mostly strengthening

Xetra Dax 30 up 1% at 5,387.61 in Frankfurt 12:28 GMT
CAC 40 up 0.7% at 4,781.18 in Paris 12:18 GMT
FTSE 100 up 0.8% at 5,679.7 in mid-session trade in London 12:01 GMT
Swiss SMI -0.08% at CHF 7686.22 13:42:24 CET

European shares rise on bumper Ifo, SAP's surge
...
By 1200 GMT the pan-European FTSEurofirst index of 300 leading shares was 0.8 percent stronger at 1,286.01 points, after closing on Tuesday at a 2006 low. Easing oil prices at below $67 a barrel also supported shares.

The index is off a 4-1/2-year high of 1,312.9 points struck this month, after disappointing earnings from U.S. companies, a mixed batch of European earnings and rising oil prices. The FTSEurofirst rose nearly 23 percent in 2005.
...
SAP rose as much as 9.1 percent, making it the biggest blue-chip gainer, after saying it would beat profit and licence sales expectations for this year.
...
The DJ Stoxx tech index gained more than 2 percent to be the top sectoral gainer. French tech stocks were particularly strong, with Alcatel up 2 percent, Dassault System (DAST.PA: Quote, Profile, Research) up 3.4 percent and Business Objects (BOBJ.PA: Quote, Profile, Research) gaining 5 percent. /more...

[EuroObserver]

77. Europe markets closed well up (except Swiss)

(Many Swiss firms don't like the Franc too strong since it impacts their earnings abroad)

Swiss SMI down -0.13% at CHF 7682.69 17:30:46 CET
FTSE 100 closes up 1.3% at 5,704.4 in London 16:48 GMT
CAC 40 closes up 0.9% at 4,791.0 in Paris 16:48 GMT
FTSE 250 closes up 1.5% at 9,058.2 in London 16:46 GMT
Xetra Dax 30 closes up 1.7% at 5,427.09 in Frankfurt 16:47 GMT
FTSE Eurofirst 300 up 1% at 1,289.91 in closing exchanges in London 16:45 GMT

Bourses close higher as tech and bank stocks rally
European stocks advanced on Wednesday, lifted by strength in the technology sector, rumours of banking consolidation and a surge of business confidence in Germany.

FTSE leaps above 5,700 on M&A hopes, miners
LONDON,, Jan 25 (Reuters) - Britain's top shares surged higher to close above 5,700 points on the FTSE 100 index on Wednesday, with bid activity igniting stocks such as gases group BOC (BOC.L: Quote, Profile, Research) and miners rallying in line with record metals prices.

Strategists say the FTSE 100 <.FTSE> looks set to challenge 4-1/2 year highs reached earlier this month, with sustained mergers and acquisitions activity, steady UK interest rates and relatively cheap valuations providing support.

"It is very hard to talk a bear market story at this stage," said Mike Lenhoff, chief strategist at Brewin Dolphin, "It strikes me that the market does not want to come back very far -- it is firmly supported."

Lenhoff outlined the only major challenges to further FTSE gains as a change in expectations for U.S. interest rates or an oil price spike towards $80 a barrel, triggered by geopolitical risks in the Middle East. /more...

[EuroObserver]

6. Metals remain bullish

Metals fly high in fund-fuelled bull market
Wed Jan 25, 2006 05:36 AM ET
LONDON, Jan 25 (Reuters) - Copper and zinc hit fresh all-time highs and other key industrial metals were snapped up on Wednesday as fund managers diversified into the sector.

Metals traders said there was a common theme driving copper and zinc to new peaks, aluminium to its highest for 17-1/2 years, and lead to a contract high -- investment fund inflows in a virtual selling vacuum.

"Without any fresh bullish news, one has to assume that it is the funds and the weight of money that is once again pushing these prices higher," analyst William Adams of Basemetals.com said.

Precious metal platinum also surged to its highest ever level of $1,056 an ounce at the London fixing on Wednesday, helped by increased fund buying. . Silver reached a 17-1/2 year high of $9.39 cents an ounce, while gold was firm at $561.50/562.30, close to last week's 25-year high of $564.00.

"The funds and the specs are buying, and there is no real producer hedging or trade selling to speak of, so they will keep going up," one base metals trader said.

"At some point it will turn, and each day that passes brings the threat of a sell-off nearer," he added.

Adams said consumers are likely to be buying on a hand-to- mouth basis and probably avoiding the exchanges. Producers are selling straight into the physical sector, so funds have probably become the main players in futures.

"Therefore until the producers step up their hedging and their action starts to counter the fund forward buying, the rally may well extend further," he added.

Fund sources said that the rally had become partly self-fulfulling.

"Forget about fundamentals -- money is going in and the trade can't sell it as they have no margins. We could see copper with a '5' in front of it and aluminium and zinc with a '3'." one said.

"Why call the top of a bull market? Only an idiot does that, you call the top when it is over," he added.
...
On the London Metal Exchange (LME), benchmark metal copper (MCU3: Quote, Profile, Research) was $48 higher at a new record high of $4,695 a tonne, and the market now has $4,700 in its sights.

Aluminium, widely used in consumer durables, rose to $2,456 a tonne, the highest since September 1988, with analysts citing higher energy input costs as a supportive factor.
...
Zinc, used in galvanising and tipped as one of this year's star performers in a recent Reuters metal prices poll, was supported by a drop in stocks of 2,000 tonnes to 373,750, their lowest since September 2001. It hit $2,255, a $25 gain and new record.

"Based on fundamentals, zinc and lead should be very strong and fund operators are very keen to buy them," said Naohiro Niimura, a vice president of Mizuho Corporate Bank in Tokyo.
...
"Funds are also looking to nickel and tin and taking fresh positions in them as these metals have been undervalued compared with others," Niimura said.

/more...

[UpInArms]

36. Feb Gold @ $566 oz - Apr Platinum @ $1066 oz

9:47am 01/25/06 FEB GOLD CLIMBS $7.90 TO $566/OZ IN MORNING NY TRADING

9:47am 01/25/06 MARCH COPPER UP 2% AT $2.197/LB AFTER A RECORD $2.199

9:47am 01/25/06 APRIL PLATINUM UP $8 AT $1,066/OZ AFTER 26-YR $1,068 HIGH

[54anickel]

47. Shine On – Part II: SEC Proposes Rules for Silver ETF Trading

http://wallstreetexaminer.com/?itemid=2078

It’s coming. Despite roadblocks put up by the Silver Users Association, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in conjunction with the American Stock Exchange, has proposed new rules that will guide the trading of the upcoming silver exchange traded fund (ETF).

Let’s be clear – the proposed rule from the SEC governing trading of the silver ETF (Rule Change Relating to the Listing and Trading of Shares of the iShares® Silver Trust) should not be confused with the pending registration of iShares Silver Trust (SLV) shares with the SEC. These are separate matters. However the SEC action indicates the very clear intention of the SEC and AMEX to prepare for the eventual trading of the silver ETF. The proposed rule will take at least until February 7, 2006 to be approved, and possibly, it could be subject to further delays and/or changes.

The Silver Users Association (SUA) fears that the iShares Silver Trust will cause investors to buy silver – and that this will result in a shortage of silver for users. But the SEC sees no present shortage of silver available for trading. The SEC says in the rule proposal that “There are published sources that do suggest the significant size of the overall market.” There may be a shortage of silver in the future, but the SUA’s arguments shouldn’t prevent the registration of the silver ETF’s shares. The SEC has no authority to act on forecasts concerning the price and availability of silver. After all, isn’t the purpose of the market place to allow willing buyers and sellers to set the price of commodity or stock – and allow it to fluctuate over time? And since the silver ETF, by its own definition, requires the physical possession of the commodity – silver – there can be no trading of the silver ETF shares unless it manages to acquire silver.

The SEC previously approved the stock registration of a similar trust for gold, set trading rules, and granted them special exemptions. While there is no guarantee of approval, it looks increasingly likely it will follow the same course for the silver trust - and approve the registration of SLV.

[UpInArms]

79. Feb Gold @ $562.20 - March Silver @ $9.52

12:25pm 01/25/06 FEB GOLD UP $4.10 AT $562.20/OZ IN NY TRADING

12:25pm 01/25/06 MARCH SILVER TAPS 18-YR HIGH OF $9.52/OZ

12:25pm 01/25/06 MARCH SILVER LAST UP 25.7C, OR 2.8%, AT $9.485/OZ

12:25pm 01/25/06 MARCH COPPER TOUCHES RECORD $2.204/LB

12:25pm 01/25/06 MARCH COPPER LAST UP 4.65C, OR 2.2%, AT $2.199/LB

[UpInArms]

80. Silver leads gains among the metals futures

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38742.5212244792-858396304&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Silver led the gains among the metals futures Wednesday afternoon, with futures prices for the metal climbing to their highest level in 18 years. March silver rose as high as $9.52 an ounce and was last at $9.485, up 25.7 cents, or 2.8%. With the break above the resistance mark of $9.30, "silver now looks to target the $9.50-$10 level with renewed momentum back in the market," said Peter Spina, an analyst at GoldForecaster.com. February gold was up $4.40 at $562.50 an ounce, March copper was up 2.2% at $2.199 a pound after a record $2.204 and April platinum hit a 26-year high of $1,068, with prices last at $1,065.50, up 0.7%.

[ozymandius]

7. Stock futures gain, earnings flurry due

LONDON (Reuters) - U.S. stock index futures rose on Wednesday, indicating an opening gain on Wall Street, ahead of a raft of corporate earnings and with Disney (NYSE:DIS - news) in focus after agreeing to acquire Pixar (Nasdaq:PIXR - news) for $7.4 billion.

Oil and energy stocks were also in the spotlight after crude futures slipped half a dollar below $67 a barrel before U.S. fuel inventory data at 1530 GMT which is expected to show a bearish demand picture, overshadowing tensions in Iran and Nigeria.

-cut-

Corporate numbers have been patchy so far this season but analysts say more earnings reports are needed before the quarter can really be judged, especially after last week's turbulent events caused by sharp falls in Japanese stocks.

more...

[UpInArms]

10. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX

Last trade 87.95 Change -0.27 (-0.31%)

Manufacturing Faltering Across US

The dollar continued to slowly retrace some of the ground lost to the majors over Friday and into Monday, but another poor manufacturing sector number began eroding confidence in the greenback’s comeback. The Euro remains trapped within a 60 pip range. A fresh four month high in the EURUSD around 23:45 GMT at 1.2324 was turned by dollar bids through the European and New York sessions towards 1.2260-support and traded at 1.2275 at 16:20 GMT. Similar movement against the British Pound held a slightly broader range of 80 pips. Dollar rallying in European trading took the GBPUSD all the way to 1.7804, but this advance was pared back later to 1.7850. Yen bidding has kept a dollar rebound closely inline with a session high 114.89 at 4:00 GMT capping the 50 pip trading range that has traded back down to 114.65. Rounding out the majors, the dollar looked to be forming a bullish trend against the Swiss, leading the pair all the way to 1.2636 just prior to the open of New York markets. Swiss strength however checked this rally with the USDCHF trading back lower around 1.2600 which is short-term resistance.

An indicator for business activity in the Richmond, Virginia-area was the sole release for the New York session hours. According to the regional Fed bank’s numbers, manufacturing in the area has fallen to its lowest level since September of 2003. Taken alone, the index holds little sway over the market. However, taken together with the other regional factory indicators already released; manufacturing in the world’s largest economy seems to be slowing. Both the Philly Fed and the New York Fed reported last week that the manufacturing sector has cooled off, while nationwide industrial production has also waned in the previous month. The voting FOMC members will review these numbers at their next meeting on January 31st since the ISM manufacturing figure is not scheduled for release until February 2nd.

US equities confirmed the snap in the sell off in shares in today’s trading with positive earnings and falling oil prices rallying investor’s confidence. The NASDAQ Composite Index led the indices with a 12.13 point, or 0.54 percent, move higher to 10,715.66 by 16:55 GMT. Similarly the S&P 500 was up 3.69 points, or 0.29 percent, to 1,267.5; while the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.25 percent, or 26.89 points, to 10,715.66. Shares of Wal-Mart were added to portfolios after the largest retail in the world received analyst upgrades on this years earning potential. The stock rose $0.46 to C$45.71 by mid-day trading. United Technologies was the largest contributor to the Dow’s ascent after reporting a better than expected $0.71 per share fourth quarter profit that sent its stock $1.88 higher to $56.35.

...more...

[UpInArms]

11. Dollar nosedives versus Russian ruble to late 2000 level

http://en.rian.ru/business/20060124/43164295.html

MOSCOW, January 24 (RIA Novosti, Yelena Orekhova) - The U.S. dollar nose-dived against the ruble on the Moscow Inter-Bank Currency Exchange Tuesday to the level registered in late 2000.

The dollar's swift fall to 27.9898 rubles to the dollar in Tuesday's trading pushed the U.S. currency back to the level registered in December 2000 when the dollar/ruble rate was about 27.93-27.97. Since the start of 2006, the greenback has lost almost 50 kopecks, Russian forex experts said.

Experts say the dollar is largely under the influence of external factors but proportionally the dollar has weakened more considerably against the ruble than against the euro.

"The dollar's fall versus the ruble was extraordinary," Yelena Khrupova from BrokerCreditServis brokerage said. She added that the dollar's depreciation was facilitated by the active sale of the U.S. currency on the Russian forex market.

According to Khrupova, the dollar's plunge against the ruble showed that the Central Bank of Russia was in no hurry to give a helping hand to the U.S. currency. The analyst said the country's chief bank was more concerned about maintaining ruble stability against the dollar-euro currency basket and curbing inflation, which went out of control in the first ten days of January.

...more...

[EuroObserver]

14. INDICATORS - Russia - Jan 25

Wed Jan 25, 2006 06:33 AM ET
Jan 25 (Reuters) - Russian economic indicators based on data provided by the Federal State Statistics Service, government institutions, the central bank and exchanges: see data here...

...
CURRENCY/INTEREST RATES *Rbl/dlr (c.bank rate) 27.9805 *Rbl/euro (c.bank rate) 34.3321 C.bank overnight rate 12 C.bank refinancing rate 12 *Overnight deposit rate 3.00/4.00 *3-month MosPrime rate 4.85 *10-year T-bond yield (RU10YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) 6.60
...
LONG-TERM FOREIGN CURRENCY RATINGS Moody's (Oct 25, 2005) Baa2 (outlook stable) S&P (Dec 15, 2005) BBB (outlook stable) Fitch (Aug 3, 2005) BBB (outlook stable)

[EuroObserver]

13. Watch on Swiss Franc (CHF), Pound Sterling (GBP)

[54anickel]

59. UPDATE 1-U.S. exports rose 10 pct in 2005-Commerce Secretary

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=economicNews&storyID=2006-01-25T105838Z_01_L25680616_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-USA-EXPORTS-UPDATE-1.XML

BERLIN, Jan 25 (Reuters) - U.S. Commerce Secretary Carlos Gutierrez said on Wednesday that U.S. exports grew approximately 10 percent in 2005 and that he was not unduly concerned about the U.S. trade deficit.

Speaking to a group of German business representatives in Berlin, Guitierrez said: "Our exports were up about 10 pct in 2005 off a base of $1 trillion dollars and we need to continue to export more in order to address the trade deficit."

He said that money leaving the country due to the trade deficit was returning in the form of investment because of the country's attractive, low-interest rate environment.

"Part of the trade deficit exists because we are a very open economy and because we are growing. We are attractive and people want to export and consumers want to buy and that's part of the deficit," he said.

snip>

"We'd like to see more growth around the world. Perhaps if the European Union grew at 2.5 percent instead of 1.5 percent we could export more to the European Union and thereby increase our exports," he said.

Export what? :eyes:

more...

[UpInArms]

12. Some hedge funds may pose stability risk -FSA

http://today.reuters.com/misc/PrinterFriendlyPopup.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=uri:2006-01-25T095859Z_01_L2429891_RTRIDST_0_FINANCIAL-HEDGE-RISKS.XML

LONDON, Jan 25 (Reuters) - Hedge fund investments in less liquid assets such as private equity or real estate could be a potential problem for financial market stability, Britain's financial watchdog said on Wednesday.

Overall, however, the chances that hedge funds with their significant exposure could cause serious market disruption or erode confidence is low, the Financial Services Authority (FSA) said in its 2006 outlook.

"Although there are now some quite large hedge funds ... none of them match the size or leverage of (U.S.-based) Long-Term Capital Management, whose near failure caused significant market disruptions in 1998," the FSA said.

"(But) hedge funds appear to continue to increase their investments in a range of asset classes which are inherently less liquid than conventional assets (such as exchange traded stocks) or whose liquidity is more likely to be reduced in times of market stress (such as credit derivatives)."

Attempts by hedge funds to close illiquid positions at times of market turmoil do raise the possibility of volatile and disorderly markets, the FSA said.

But analysts say some hedge fund investors are being asked to tie up their money for longer than the traditional three months to one year, while some have even have had to commit to five years.

...more...

[EuroObserver]

16. Davos Bankers foresee Bernanke-backed volatility

Bankers see volatile markets as Bernanke joins Fed
DAVOS, Switzerland, Jan 25 (Reuters) - Ben Bernanke is poised to take over at the U.S. Federal Reserve next week just as financial markets are heading into a very volatile period for which he is untested, senior bankers said on Wednesday.

Dealers and investors worry that Bernanke, known as a sophisticated academic and inflation targeter, is more focused on fighting consumer inflation than current dangers of markets awash with cheap cash and a sharp U.S. dollar drop, they said.

"He is one of the world's greatest inflation targeters with no inflation to target," Stephen Roach, chief economist at the investment banking firm Morgan Stanley USA, said at the start of the World Economic Forum meeting in Davos on Wednesday.
...
Roach said the market volatility could continue when Bernanke succeeds Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan in six days.

"The risk is that he will be blind-sided, as his predecessors were, very early in his tenure by something he is not all that well prepared for and by something that the markets do not have confidence in him for," Roach said.
...
Zhu Min, executive assistant president of Bank of China, one of China's top four banks, said markets are extremely sensitive to Bernanke's succession. "You have a very, very vulnerable financial economy. I expect to see volatile markets," he said.
...
Masses of cheap credit left in markets despite 19 months of Fed rate tightening -- which now has been joined by other major central banks -- presents a huge vulnerability, he said.

Excess liquidity is the key issue confronting financial markets today, not consumer inflation, he and Roach said.

The concern is that, if the Fed tightening cycle is nearing its peak, what happens if a financial shock occurs and markets do not need the usual Fed response of pumping in more money, given this excess liquidity, Zhu said.

"People have no idea where there is a shock absorber. That is why you will have market volatility," Zhu said.

/more..

[UpInArms]

19. DAVOS-U.S.'s Adams not concerned about U.S. assets

(and now a word from our sponsor :eyes: )

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-01-25T115641Z_01_L25727354_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-USA-ADAMS.XML

DAVOS, Switzerland, Jan 25 (Reuters) - Senior U.S. Treasury official Timothy Adams said on Wednesday that he had no concerns about the attractivness of U.S. assets to investors.

"The U.S. economy is the best place to park your capital," Adams, who is Treasury undersecretary for international affairs, told Bloomberg TV at the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum.

He was responding to a question about whether he was worried about losing the foreign investment that has bolstered the Treasury bond market and kept long-term yields low.

[WhiteTara]

81. the "trust me" theory in action n/t

[UpInArms]

71. Comedic Routine: US denies job cuts mean slowdown

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,13129-2009603,00.html

American officials today denied suggestions that recent sweeping job cuts by companies such as Ford and General Motors signalled a downturn in the American jobs market.

Elaine Chao, US Labor Secretary, told reporters at the World Economic Forum in Davos that 2.5 million new jobs were created in the US during 2005 and 4.7 million since June 2003.

"Job creation is dynamic, when companies cut their payrolls is not an indication about the state of the economy," she said. She added that downsizing signalled problems at individual companies.

Ford announced a massive restructuring plan this week that includes closing or moth-balling 14 assembly and parts plants along with eliminating as many as 34,000 jobs by 2012.

General Motors, which like Ford has struggled with high costs and increased competition from foreign automakers, is planning to shed 30,000 jobs through 2008 and earlier this month said it would cut costs by some $11 billion.

...more...

These freaks of nature just don't want anything to do with reality :eyes:

[UpInArms]

18. "Seasonally Adjusted" US home loan applications rise as rates hit 3-mo low

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-01-25T121353Z_01_N25209911_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-MORTGAGES-UPDATE-1.XML

NEW YORK, Jan 25 (Reuters) - U.S. mortgage applications climbed for the third straight week in January, fueled by a decline in long-term rates to 3-1/2 month lows, an industry trade group said on Wednesday.

The Mortgage Bankers Association said its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage application activity for the week ended Jan. 20 rose 7.7 percent to 660.5, boosted by renewed demand for home purchase loans and strong refinancing volume.

The group's seasonally adjusted index of refinancing applications increased 7.8 percent to 1,773.9 -- its fourth consecutive weekly rise.

Borrowing costs on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages, excluding fees, averaged 6.04 percent, down 0.03 percentage point from the previous week's 6.07 percent, marking its seventh consecutive weekly decline. Rates were at their lowest level since the week ended Oct. 7, when it reached 5.98 percent.

...more...

[UpInArms]

22. Profits before Safety - Amer. Airlines - Corporate Airlines Flight 5966

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/01/24/AR2006012401580.html

The conversational distractions, coupled with the fact that the pair were trying to land their sixth flight of the day after more than 14 hours on the job, were contributing factors that led to the plane's crash. The National Transportation Safety Board yesterday blamed the Oct. 19, 2004, crash on the crew's failure to follow proper procedures in preparation to land the plane in Kirksville, Mo.

<snip>

Safety experts said the accident showed how increased workloads and limited rest periods can impair crew performance. The NTSB recommended yesterday, for the second time in 12 years, that the Federal Aviation Administration update its work rules for pilots.

"Human beings are going to make errors when they are tired," said Duane Woerth, president of the Air Line Pilots Association, the nation's largest pilots union.

As major airlines struggle financially, Woerth said, they are squeezing more hours out of pilots to contain costs. Pilots used to be able to negotiate shorter shifts as part of their labor agreements, he said. But as several major carriers, including United Air Lines, Delta Air Lines, Northwest Airlines and US Airways, have filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, the agreements are being thrown out and more pilots are being scheduled for the maximum 16-hour days, he said.

<snip>

The crew of Corporate Airlines Flight 5966, flying under the American Airlines American Connection flag, was originally scheduled for eight flights on the day of the crash. The crew flew three flights the day before the accident and was given the federal minimum eight-hour rest the night before. The eight hours of "rest" comprises the time it takes to get to a hotel, eat dinner and shuttle back to the airport the next morning. After arriving at the hotel the night before the accident, investigators said, the crew ate sandwiches prepared by the co-pilot and headed to bed.

...more...

[EuroObserver]

24. Indian economy seen as No. 3 this year

...
A former chief economist for a top accounting firm Tuesday said India's economy will this year equal or surpass Japan's as the world's third largest.

Dr. William T. Wilson, who now works as chief economist for Keystone India and once was Ernst & Young's top economist, said the Indian economy will eclipse the $4 trillion mark in 2006, making it equal to or greater than Japan's.
...
/more at DU Latest...

[UpInArms]

26. Picturing a Lie

http://www.capitolhillblue.com/artman/publish/article_8041.shtml

excerpt:

"Public photographs could damage Bush's efforts to insulate himself from a scandal that has scorched numerous other Republicans," the Post reports. "A vivid image of Bush shaking hands and smiling with Abramoff would provide fuel for news coverage and commentary, even if such "grip-and-grin" shots are commonplace for most politicians."

But Jennifer Palmieri, a former Clinton communications aide, told the Post, "If TV is showing a picture of George Bush and Jack Abramoff, it immediately brings the poster boy for abuse into the Oval Office."

Clinton White House aides know the damage a photo can cause. When the Monica Lewinsky scandal broke it was fueled by both photo and film footage of the President greeting Lewinsky in a White House rope line.

Political strategists say Bush's attempts to lie his way out of a relationship with Abramoff ranks with Clinton's public declaration of "I did not have sex with that woman, Ms. Lewinsky."

"Anybody who knows how Washington works realizes that a high roller like Jack Abramoff had Bush's ear," says political scientist George Harleigh. "The man raised over $100,000 for the President and was joined at the hip with (former House Majority Leader) Tom DeLay. It's absurd to claim Bush didn't know Abramoff. Of course he did. And lying about that relationship only brings more scrutiny to the White House's many abuses of the truth."

...more at link...

[AnneD]

83. I have a well connected relative and have been to these fundraisers...

and with the $ amount Abramoff raised you are in the pioneer circle or whatever it is called. It is SUCH a shameful suck up (or as my elderly friend said, they lick you up real good). I am sure he not only has photos, but invites to special 'breakfasts' where you get face time, invites to black tie holiday events (we know he went to the Hanukkah party), and luncheons with other Captains of Industry where you interface with the politicians. Believe me, there are photos, lots of incriminating photos. We just have to find 'em or buy 'em.
What do you want to bet that Jack is in line for a Dec 31 2007 presidental pardon? I hope they drag these trials out past the pardon time. I think that may be why DeLay wants a quick trial.

[UpInArms]

27. McCormick 4Q earnings rise, to cut 800 to 1000 jobs

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38742.3569913889-858371557&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Spice and seasoning maker McCormick & Co. (MKC) on Wednesday posted fourth-quarter net income of $88.1 million, or 65 cents a share, compared to $87.4 million, or 62 cents a share in the year ago period. Sales fell to $737.1 million compared to $744.1 million a year ago. Analysts, on average, were expecting it to post a profit of 68 cents a share on sales of $760.53 million, according to Thomson First Call. As part of a restructuring plan the company will consolidate its global manufacturing, rationalize its distribution facilities, and cut 800 to 1,000 jobs.

[UpInArms]

29. Treasurys lower ahead of 2-year notes auction

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38742.3808126389-858375257&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - Treasury prices were lower in early trade Wednesday, sending yields higher, amid concerns that demand for fixed-income instruments is weakening in the face of unusually heavy government and corporate issuance. The benchmark 10-year note last was down 6/32 at 100-20/32 with a yield ($TNX) of 4.419%, up from 4.391%.

[UpInArms]

33. Printing Press Report:Fed adds banking reserves via overnight system repos

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-01-25T143515Z_01_N25344816_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-FED-OPERATIONS.XML

NEW YORK, Jan 25 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve said on Wednesday that it added temporary reserves to the U.S. banking system through overnight system repurchase agreements.

The benchmark fed funds rate last traded at 4.313 percent, above the Fed's current 4.25 percent target for the overnight lending rate.

Further details of the operation are available at: http://www.ny.frb.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm

[UpInArms]

65. Printing Press Alert: Fed says adds permanent reserves via coupon pass

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-01-25T154221Z_01_N25345585_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-FED-COUPONPASS-URGENT.XML

NEW YORK, Jan 25 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve on Wednesday said it added permanent bank reserves through purchases of U.S. Treasury coupons maturing between Nov 15, 2008 and July 15, 2009.

One issue was excluded from the purchase, the Fed said.

Details of the coupon pass are available on the New York Fed's Web site: http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/permanent.html

Federal funds last traded at 4.31 percent, above the Fed's current target of 4.25 percent.

[UpInArms]

69. U.S. Treasuries down as market braces for auction

http://today.reuters.com/misc/PrinterFriendlyPopup.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=uri:2006-01-25T164509Z_01_N25417476_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-BONDS-UPDATE-1.XML

NEW YORK, Jan 25 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury debt prices fell on Wednesday, extending early losses related to a heavy calendar of U.S. debt issuance and strong German data that could prompt higher euro zone interest rates.

Traders and strategists said early selling brought prices down to important technical levels that were tested first in the Treasuries futures market and then in the cash market as well.

Data on existing home sales came in slightly below expectations, but the market barely flinched, focusing instead on the $22 billion auction of two-year notes later in the session.

The auction, scheduled for 1 p.m. (1800 GMT), is the latest in an onslaught that analysts estimate will total around $100 billion by the end of February.

"The two-year auction is today, plus the refunding is close at hand. So we're dealing with supply pressures," said John Canavan, a bond market analyst with Stone & McCarthy Research Associates in Princeton, New Jersey.

Next week, the Treasury Department will announce its refunding, a quarterly sale of debt which this time around will include 30-year bonds for the first time in more than four years. The refunding will also include auctions of three-year and 10-year notes.

...more...

[UpInArms]

30. pre-opening blather

09:01 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +2.4. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +7.0. Still indicating a higher open for the indices, futures trade continues to reflect a bullish bias. Aside from the upbeat domestic corporate front and 1% drop in crude futures, solid gains in European markets aid sentiment. Separately, investors await a pair of items on the economic calendar. Given the market's concerns with a slowdown in the housing market, the 10:00 ET December Existing Home Sales report (consensus 6.87 million homes) should garner some added attention. At 10:30 ET, the Department of Energy will release the latest crude inventory stats.

08:30 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +3.7. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +9.0. The cash market remains poised to start the session higher. Along with a host of upside reports on the earnings front, including those from NFLX, CTX, CKFR, AHC, BMY, CL, HSY, MHP, RYL, and WLP, an extended pullback in the price of oil helps inspire early buying action. Currently, crude futures for March delivery have given up 0.8% and trade at $66.51 per barrel.

07:59 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +3.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +7.0. Versus fair value, futures trade suggests an upside open for the cash market. Activity on the M&A front, which includes Disney's (DIS) confirmed $7.4 billion purchase of Pixar (PIXR) and Boston Scientific's (BSX) win of the two-month bidding war for Guidant (GDT), is behind the bullish bias. Several better than expected fourth quarter earnings reports help underpin the tone; thus far, about two-thirds of the morning's reporters have surpassed analysts' EPS estimates.

[UpInArms]

31. 9:33 casino's open for bidnez

Dow 10,742.24 +30.02 (+0.28%)
Nasdaq 2,273.30 +8.05 (+0.36%)
S&P 500 1,271.34 +4.48 (+0.35%)
10-Yr Bond 4.420 +0.30 (+0.68%)

NYSE Volume 76,221,000
Nasdaq Volume 100,434,000

[54anickel]

32. The Feeling that You've Heard this Bull Before (Mogambo)

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Daughty/jan252006.html

snip>

But just to show you that the Fed is still kicking, the category of Government Securities Bought Outright went up by $1.3 billion bucks. This, if you look up "Fraud, Ultimate, Government" in your Handy Mogambo Encyclopedia (HME), is when a bank that is a de facto arm of the government prints up money to buy government debt. Net result: Government spends, further indebting the citizens, and the banks create the money to buy the debt, which increases the money supply, which will make prices go up (price inflation)! This gives us stupid American taxpayers and even more stupid American voters a DOUBLE whack to the head (DWTTH); more interest expense to pay, more debt to pay off, and higher prices to pay from now until forever. So I am really, really, really, really huffy about that, too.

snip>

But things economic must be really worse than advertised, as Ford is laying people off, General Motors is laying people off, Chrysler is laying people off, and lots of companies are laying people off, and I am hearing a lot of stories about how total revenues were down (which is bad) but profits were somehow up (which is good) all over the place, which means that they must have cut costs. This is what passes as brilliant management today.

snip>

- The yield curve has actually inverted, as short-term interest rates are now higher than long-term interest rates. This is always a very bad sign for an economy, as bond players are betting that the economy will be so weak that the Federal Reserve will be forced to drastically lower interest rates, thus increasing the value of their long bonds.

Peter Grandich hears me talking about an inverted yield curve and says, "I think an inverted yield curve, no matter how small of an invert it was, is one of the most reliable indicators around." Reliable indicator of what? Using my amazing Mogambo paranormal abilities (AMPA), I not only know EXACTLY what he thinks it means, in all its far-flung ramifications, but I also know how to shorten it to the pithy "We're freaking doomed!" because an inverted yield curve means we are facing a recession, and with this heaving, bloated, over-indebted, over-leveraged, mal-invested, idiotic big-government economy, we cannot possibly stand the strain.

What in the hell stock investors are so happy about, on the other hand, beats the hell out of me.

more...

[JNelson6563]

41. Great stuff as usual!

Using my amazing Mogambo paranormal abilities (AMPA), I not only know EXACTLY what he thinks it means, in all its far-flung ramifications, but I also know how to shorten it to the pithy "We're freaking doomed!" because an inverted yield curve means we are facing a recession, and with this heaving, bloated, over-indebted, over-leveraged, mal-invested, idiotic big-government economy, we cannot possibly stand the strain.

Succinctly put as always Mogambo. Thanks for posting that 54! :hi:

Julie

[54anickel]

51. Yeah, been a fan of Mogambo for a long time. Sure, he thinks I'm

some Facist/Socialist/Pinko/Commie/Welfare-doling/Bleeding Heart Idgit, and I think he stinks like last week's garbage and wouldn't rent him a stall in my barn, as the stench would freak out the critters. Aside from that, we share a common viewpoint.

(Remember when I first started posting him here and would put that "Mogambo Warning" in the subject line? - I didn't want to be banned from the SMW!!!)

[JNelson6563]

82. These posts give SWT a little "edge"

might help to bring in the younger folks. haha I DO remember those warnings. Funny stuff.

Julie

[ozymandius]

34. 9:52 and LaLa Land is la-la-ish

Bond land however is in the tank.

Dow 10,746.64 +34.42 (+0.32%)
Nasdaq 2,273.51 +8.26 (+0.36%)
S&P 500 1,270.64 +3.78 (+0.30%)
10-Yr Bond 44.24 +0.34 (+0.77%)
NYSE Volume 250,761,000
Nasdaq Volume 272,773,000

[54anickel]

35. The Workplace: U.S. economy strong? Not for wages and jobs

http://www.iht.com/articles/2006/01/24/business/workcol25.php

If you believe most statistics, the U.S. economy is doing quite well.

Corporate profit is soaring. Consumer spending and business investment have been growing at a healthy clip. In the third quarter of last year, output expanded at an annual pace of about 4.1 percent. Private-sector economists are expecting growth above 3.5 percent this year.

Yet, amid the vim and vigor, there is a weak spot that does not quite mesh with these readings. More than four years since the economy emerged from recession in November of 2001, businesses are still not hiring much.

Employment grew by a mere 3.5 million jobs, or 2.7 percent, in the 49 months of this economic expansion. Last year, the U.S. job market grew by 1.5 percent.

snip>

But compared with similar moments in the United States' economic history, this shot of job growth appears less brisk than at first blush. In the 49 months after the recession of the early 1990s, employment jumped almost 8 percent. It surged by more than 13 percent in the same period after the recession of the early 1980s.

What growth there is comes from a decline in the pace of layoffs, not from employers picking up hiring.

more...

[54anickel]

37. Hit, Stay, or Walk Away

http://www.pimco.com/LeftNav/Regional+Market+Commentary/Global+Credit+Perspectives/2006/USCP+02.2006.htm

snip>

Corporate America’s Stack of Chips
Corporate America must now make a decision similar to the one facing the typical blackjack player. Companies have a lot of chips as the result of several years of healthy corporate profits associated with strong consumer spending, robust housing gains, and cost controls. Corporate balance sheets are healthy and free-cash-flow after dividends just hit a 45-year high, so companies clearly have chips to bet with if they so choose (chart 1). The question is whether Corporate America has the will to spend those chips. Will companies aggressively increase capital spending and hiring (hit) or wait and see what happens to the U.S. economy (stay)? They can walk away from the table with some chips or they can choose to distribute their chips to equity holders. Corporate America’s decision to hit, stay, or walk away will likely have significant implications for economic growth, corporate credit fundamentals, and credit spreads. So let’s gather some information with the hope of trying to figure out Corporate America’s next move.

Corporate America’s Will to Spend
Corporate America’s willingness to spend-through increased capital spending and hiring-depends on its expected return on investment. Returns should be high when U.S. economic growth is strong, companies have pricing power, and competition is low.

Let’s start with economic growth. Today, consumer spending accounts for 70% of U.S. GDP (chart 2). Several factors suggest U.S. consumer spending will slow in 2006. First, housing price appreciation is moderating and both fixed- and adjustable- mortgage rates have risen, reducing the availability and size of mortgage equity withdrawals. Second, mortgage-lending standards are tightening, adding to the increased difficulties that consumers will have to obtain financing, raise debt levels and turn their houses into ATM machines. Third, consumers have been spending more than they have earned for several years, leaving them with limited savings for future consumption. Pent-up demand for consumer durables is therefore low. Finally, energy and healthcare costs have soared, leaving less money available for discretionary spending. None of these trends seem likely to reverse anytime soon.

snip>

Time to Take Chips Off the Table
PIMCO believes corporate bond investors should take some of their own chips off the table by reducing holdings in companies where management is becoming increasingly shareholder-friendly. Cash directed towards equity holders is cash that is taken away from bondholders. When a skilled card counter in blackjack observes that the deck is biased towards low cards, the player adjusts his or her strategy. When we look at Corporate America, we believe we must adapt our investment strategy as well. In addition, as we discussed above, we are unlikely to see a hand-off from the U.S. consumer to businesses in the form of significant U.S. capital spending which could maintain the U.S. economy’s growth rate. American corporations that are increasing their capital expenditures and hiring are doing so in emerging market countries with pent-up consumer demand. Finally, corporate spreads, when viewed in light of corporate balance sheet leverage (chart 7), appear too tight given re-leveraging risks.

In summary, it is likely that Corporate America will take a wait and see approach (stay) versus aggressively spending and hiring in the U.S. (hit). PIMCO believes corporate managers are taking a conservative approach primarily due to growing national recognition that housing prices will likely moderate, causing consumer spending to slow, and thus lead to slower corporate profit growth. We feel their cautious stance is warranted and feel the best move would be to walk away from the blackjack table. Unfortunately, it is likely that some companies will continue to draw upon their stack of chips to fund shareholder-friendly activities, like increasing dividends and share buybacks.

more...

[UpInArms]

40. 10:13 EST losing its sunny disposition

Dow 10,729.35 +17.13 (+0.16%)
Nasdaq 2,262.81 -2.44 (-0.11%)
S&P 500 1,268.27 +1.41 (+0.11%)
10-Yr Bond 4.434 +0.44 (+1.00%)

NYSE Volume 427,483,000
Nasdaq Volume 450,176,000

10:00 am : Garnering support from each of the ten economic sectors, the market's major averages edge higher. With its 1% gain, Materials has emerged as the early leader. Better than expected Q4 profit results from Allegheny Technology (ATI 47.08 +2.56) has sparked that stock's sector-leading 6% surge, and relative strength in gold provides further momentum. Largely to the credit of upside earnings from Bell South (BLS 27.28 +0.36), the Telecommunications sector, up 0.7%, trails close behind. Separately, existing home sales fell 5.7% to 6.60 million (consensus 6.87 million) in December.DJ30 +36.90 NASDAQ +8.78 SP500 +4.10 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1232/1279/333.3 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1285/1450/197.7 mln

[UpInArms]

43. US flood program wants $5.6 bln more borrowing (Katrina costs $22B)

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-01-25T151134Z_01_WAT004722_RTRIDST_0_HURRICANES-INSURANCE-URGENT.XML

WASHINGTON, Jan 25 (Reuters) - The top official at the U.S. government flood insurance program said on Wednesday that $5.6 billion in additional borrowing authority is needed to cover claims and expenses through fiscal 2006, ending Sept. 30.

National Flood Insurance Program director David Maurstad also said in prepared testimony to the Senate Banking Committee that the total cost for the 2005 hurricane season would exceed $23 billion, adding that over $22 billion of this was due to Hurricane Katrina alone.

Congress in November raised the program's borrowing authority to $18.5 billion from $3.5 billion to cover expenses from Katrina and other flood disasters.

[UpInArms]

44. 10:24 EST all red now

Dow 10,708.22 -4.00 (-0.04%)
Nasdaq 2,261.01 -4.24 (-0.19%)
S&P 500 1,265.12 -1.74 (-0.14%)
10-Yr Bond 4.432 +0.42 (+0.96%)

NYSE Volume 512,005,000
Nasdaq Volume 534,788,000

[54anickel]

52. Meanwhile the buck caught a bid right back to the waterline.

Last trade 88.22 Change 0.00 (0.00%)

[ozymandius]

55. jumping slightly at 11:00

Dow 10,735.83 +23.61 (+0.22%)
Nasdaq 2,266.44 +1.19 (+0.05%)
S&P 500 1,267.58 +0.72 (+0.06%)
10-Yr Bond 44.34 +0.44 (+1.00%)
NYSE Volume 766,131,000
Nasdaq Volume 766,716,000

10:30 am : 5With the Technology sector's (-0.2%) drop into the red, the Nadsaq has been shoved below the flat line while the Dow and S&P well-pare early gains. Behind the decline are particular slides in TXN, AAPL, GLW, and CA shares. After Texas Instruments (TXN 29.93 -0.76) delivered Q4 earnings results that disappointed the street on Monday, semiconductors continue to languish. Still, though, the SOX index is up 8.6% this year. Corning (GLW 23.73 -0.52) added to the recent weakness in communication equipment with its in-line profit and conservative guidance. Apple's (AAPL 74.03 -2.01) loss drags the hardware industry, and in-line Q4 profit accompanied by downside FY06 EPS guidance from Computer Associates (CA 28.11 -0.77) has created a sore spot in software. DJ30 +14.81 NASDAQ -0.20 SP500 +0.88 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1344/1335/584.0 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1253/1663/315.6 mln

[loudsue]

56. Not too red! Just a little scratch so far.

Maybe the markets don't like Scalito. Just sayin.....

Mornin Marketeers!!


:kick::kick::kick:

[54anickel]

53. Indiana Sells Road for Billions; Prepare for Deluge

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000039&refer=columnist_mysak&sid=a8V3debK0BYs

Jan. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Now that Indiana has sold its toll road, get ready for everyone else to do the same.

On Monday, Governor Mitch Daniels said a Spanish-Australian consortium had bid $3.85 billion to run the Indiana Toll Road, a 157-mile highway across northern Indiana that runs from the Illinois to Ohio, for 75 years.

The legislature still has to approve the proposal, of course, but they're not going it alone with this concept. Indiana lawmakers have only to look north, to Illinois, for another example of how this kind of thing works. Last year, Chicago got $1.8 billion for its Skyway, a 7.8-mile long elevated highway that connects the Dan Ryan Expressway with the Indiana Toll Road. Lots of public officials took notice.

A Merrill Lynch & Co. report published last July on the subject of U.S. toll road privatization asked whether sales like the Skyway were one-offs, ``or do they represent the beginning of a sweeping trend that will spread to other tolled bridges, tunnels, expressways and long-distance toll roads?''

Let's bet on the sweeping trend. The money is just too big to resist, and the business of running toll roads just too marginal to what state governments are all about.

Now that Illinois and Indiana have done it, look for other states to dive right in.

more...

[UpInArms]

54. "I've Got a Bridge to Sell" will have a whole new meaning -

Makes me wonder exactly how easily it will be to travel within our own country soon :eyes:

[AnneD]

60. Heard a blurb yesterday,

they are considering doing the same here. They are such a money generator, I can't figure out why they want to do this. It is a public trust. I can just see them 'privatizing' our water system next.

[54anickel]

63. Heh-heh...next?

http://www.publicintegrity.org/water/


http://www.publicintegrity.org/water/default.aspx?sID=ch&aID=54

[wordpix]

67. Selling of America: water system already privatized in my area of CT

[UpInArms]

57. Layoffs reported at Napster

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/print_story.asp?print=1&guid={A5F637E7-0999-4BEE-845C-4D02C269005A}&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - A week after denying the company was in trouble, Napster Inc. has reportedly cut its staff.

The Hollywood Reporter cited "a 10 percent workforce reduction, focused within the programming and marketing divisions," of the online music company (NAPS).

Earlier this month, there were rumors of a restructuring. PaidContent.org, a media industry Web site, said it heard RealNetworks Inc. (RNWK) or Microsoft Corp.'s (MSFT) MSN Music might be interested in acquiring the music service.

Top management at Napster has reportedly emphasized the layoffs were not indicative of any larger trend, and dismissed any discussions of a future sale or liquidation, the Hollywood Reporter added.

...a bit more...

[54anickel]

61. Survey Shows Doubt on Economy

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-econ25jan25,1,1084167.story?coll=la-headlines-business&ctrack=1&cset=true

WASHINGTON — People are skeptical about the economy despite recent encouraging signs and are worried about the costs of gas, heating oil and healthcare, a study shows.

Views of the economy show sharp partisan differences, with Republicans far more likely to be optimistic than either Democrats or independents, according to the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press.

"There's not as much economic optimism as might be warranted by hard economic indicators," Andrew Kohut, director of the Pew Research Center, said Tuesday. "I was surprised by the growing gap between the way Republicans and the rest of the public see the national economy."

snip>

More than half of Republicans, 56%, in the poll said economic conditions were excellent or good; 28% of independents and 23% of Democrats felt that way. Those views may be influenced by how Democrats and independents perceive the intent of Bush's economic agenda, Kohut said. Some critics say Bush's policies are more beneficial to the wealthy and to big business.

more...

[54anickel]

64. Investors add companies' revenue to list of worries

http://www.usatoday.com/money/companies/earnings/2006-01-25-revenue-usat_x.htm

Suddenly, investors have more than just earnings woes to worry about.
Johnson & Johnson on Tuesday became the latest in a string of notable companies to disappoint not on earnings but on revenue. J&J joins companies including Motorola, IBM and General Electric in this regard.

Unlike earnings where unexpectedly higher costs or a one-time issue can cause a disappointment, weaker-than-expected revenue generally means one thing: A company's core business is not as strong as Wall Street thought.

And less-than-expected, or even lower revenue — as in J&J's case — is an unwelcome sign because it shows corporate profit gains are coming from cutting costs, not necessarily by growing and expanding, says Howard Silverblatt, stock analyst at Standard & Poor's. "If you want to grow earnings, you have to expand your sales," he says.

Revenue problems are showing up in:

more...

[ozymandius]

66. dipping into the red again

11:48
DJIA 10,727.19 +14.97 +0.14%
Nasdaq 2,265.00 -0.25 -0.01%
S&P 500 1,266.22 -0.64 -0.05%
30-Year Bond 4.63% +0.06 +1.31%
10-Year Bond 4.45% +0.06 +1.28%

[ozymandius]

68. Stocks gain on sharp drop in oil prices

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stocks rose Wednesday as a sharp drop in crude-oil prices and some solid earnings reports helped the market overcome much weaker-than-expected data on the housing market.

The market briefly pared gains after the National Association of Realtors reported a much sharper-than-expected drop in sales of existing homes for December.

"The market is concerned with the housing numbers. There seems to be a trend setting in," said Jay Suskind, director of trading at Ryan, Beck & Co., referring to a decline in existing home sales for a third month in a row.

-cut-

Oil, dollar, gold, bonds

Crude futures fell sharply as an unexpected decline in weekly crude inventories was offset by a rise in product stocks, notably distillate supplies, which include winter heating oil.

more...

[54anickel]

72. Not that I'm suspicious or anything (phftt), but ya ever notice how

these inventory reports...

1) Tend to be outta wack with each other

2) Tend to report levels that cause gas prices to drop just before the lil idgit 'n thief is about to take to the podium

I'm sure it's a coinky-dink though. :yoiks:

[AnneD]

84. I connected those dots a long time ago....

that's why I come here-to get accurate info.

[54anickel]

70. Hard Times Haunt Enron's Ex-Workers

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/01/25/business/25enron.html?pagewanted=1&_r=2

snip>

Her experience resembles that of most former Enron employees who had nothing to do with the fraud at the company, in contrast to the success enjoyed by those at the top who cashed out early and a comparative handful of high-ranking professionals who were able to parlay their status and skills into lucrative jobs at other energy companies. Few like Ms. Chappell have been able to restore the glitter of their jobs at Enron, a factor that still overlays the mood in Houston as the trial of Kenneth L. Lay and Jeffrey K. Skilling, the company's former chief executives, is set to get under way next week.

Some of the Enron diaspora have had to start their careers all over again. Karl Klicker, who lost a comfortable employee-training position at Enron with a six-figure salary, recently rejoined the Marine Corps at age 50, and is studying Arabic in hopes of going to Iraq.

Like Ms. Chappell, Mr. Klicker had been in the military, a not uncommon background for many of the people Enron hired. A self-described "base brat," he followed his father and grandfather into the Marines shortly after high school, eventually earning a doctorate in adult education while also serving as a Marine intelligence officer.

snip>

In the weeks leading up to the company's bankruptcy filing, she was training for a different assignment, feeling somewhat in limbo in redeployment, as that status was called within Enron. So she did not hesitate to accept the suggestion of an Enron human resources employee that she accept a "temporary" layoff with a severance package.

Within days of leaving Enron in late November 2001, however, the company was essentially out of business, ending her hope of getting any severance pay. The whole experience, she says, will shape her outlook on life forever.

"I learned not to be loyal to anyone but my family," Ms. Chappell said....

Ms. Chappell said she had thought of leaving Houston, moving to the Pacific Northwest, where she was stationed in the Army, or going to Iraq, where she hears contractors pay overtime-laden salaries into six figures. But the risks are great and doing so would take her away from her children. She has shelved that option.

more...

[UpInArms]

73. Money leaving hedge funds for 1st time in decade

12:02pm 01/25/06 MONEY LEAVES HEDGE INDUSTRY FOR FIRST TIME IN DECADE IN 4Q

hmmmm....

[UpInArms]

78. Hedge funds shed assets for 1st time in a decade: HFR

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38742.5095034028-858394518&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- More money left the hedge fund industry than flowed into it for the first time in more than a decade during the fourth quarter of 2005, Hedge Fund Research said on Wednesday. There was a net outflow of $824 million during the final three months of the year, the research firm reported. Funds of hedge funds, which allocate client money to a range of underlying managers, saw net outflows of $2.1 billion, while convertible arbitrage funds shed $7.67 billion in assets for the whole of 2005, HFR added. Poor performance in October dented interest in the industry and asset raising "never really caught up," HFR President Joshua Rosenberg said.

[UpInArms]

74. Mass layoffs up in December

http://www.thefabricator.com/News/Breaking_News.cfm?NewsID=1134

In December 2005 employers took 1,308 mass layoff actions, seasonally adjusted, as measured by new filings for unemployment insurance benefits during the month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. Each action involved at least 50 persons from a single establishment, and the number of workers involved totaled 149,565. The number of layoff events in December rose by 103 from November, and the number of associated initial claims increased by 28,782. In the manufacturing sector, 365 mass layoff events were reported during December 2005, seasonally adjusted, resulting in 49,641 initial claims. Both figures were higher than a month earlier.

The manufacturing sector accounted for 30 percent of all mass layoff events and 38 percent of all initial claims filed in December 2005. A year earlier, manufacturing comprised 27 percent of events and 31 percent of initial claims. Within manufacturing, the number of claimants in December 2005 was highest in transportation equipment (34,508, largely automotive-related), followed by food manufacturing (10,681).

check out the pdf http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/mmls.pdf

[54anickel]

75. Pasta company’s stock falls 41% (Cookin the books)

http://www.kansascity.com/mld/kansascity/business/13703944.htm

An analyst’s reaction to a damning lawsuit against American Italian Pasta Co. helped drive the company’s share price down 41 percent Tuesday.

The stock fell to new lows at $3.53 before closing at $3.81, a $2.63 loss on each share. Trading volume was inordinately heavy, with more shares changing hands than when the shares fell 36.6 percent Aug. 10 after the company revealed investigations and financial problems.

Tuesday’s dive, which wiped out $49 million in market value, followed a report from Timothy S. Ramey of D.A. Davidson & Co. in Oregon. He downgraded American Italian shares from “neutral” to “underperform” and set a $3 target for shares in the next 12 to 18 months. Ramey cited “a disturbing series of allegations” in a revised shareholder lawsuit filed last week in U.S. District Court in Kansas City.

“The suit names names, appears to have the cooperation of many current and former (American Italian) employees who acted as whistleblowers, and these individuals appear prepared to testify against the management and outside auditors,” Ramey wrote. “In the absence of evidence to the contrary, we view this as highly damaging to the company and potentially threatening to its solvency.”

more...

[UpInArms]

76. 12:16 EST numbers and "it's only a fleshwound" blather

Dow 10,711.58 -0.64 (-0.01%)
Nasdaq 2,260.35 -4.90 (-0.22%)
S&P 500 1,263.49 -3.37 (-0.27%)
10-Yr Bond 4.444 +0.54 (+1.23%)

NYSE Volume 1,229,453,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,135,985,000

12:00 pm : Though briefly interrupted by an unexpected drawdown in crude oil supply, the market's major averages continue to recover from Friday's sharp sell-off. An upbeat corporate front has provoked buying action from the early going, and an extended decline in the price of crude serves as an underpinning factor.

Following last night's close, Disney (DIS 25.78 -0.21) confirmed its $7.4 billion all-stock purchase of Pixar (PIXR 58.77 +1.20). Adding to the M&A action is news that the two-month bidding war for Guidant has ended with Boston Scientific's (BSX 23.51 -0.49) triumph; the medical equipment company will pay $27 billion for its rival. While these acquisitions are not new news, they nonetheless underscore the fact that cash flow remains solid and that the strong merger trend will continue throughout 2006. Adding to the optimistic corporate front are a host of better than expected fourth quarter earnings reports. Solid profits and reassuring guidance from Abbott Labs (ABT 42.70 +2.64), along with the fact that ABT will acquire GDT assets as part of the BSX acquisition, helps to support the Healthcare sector. Upside results from WellPoint (WLP 73.59 +0.40) adds some additional momentum.

It's the Materials sector that leads the six rising sectors, with Allegheny Technology (ATI 47.08 +2.56) shining brightest following its better than expected Q4 profit report. Largely to the credit of upside earnings from Bell South (BLS 27.28 +0.36), the Telecommunications sector trails close behind.

Of the laggards, Energy fares worst. What is now a 2.0% slide in the price of crude oil futures has given investors reason to lock in some of the sector's 12% gain. Although the Energy Department reported a surprise drop in crude supply, the flip-side of the report -- much better than expected builds in gasoline and distillates inventory - increases selling incentive across the sector. The latest round of stellar earnings results from energy companies, which today include ConocoPhillips (COP 63.62 -0.86) and Amerada Hess (AMH 60.50 +0.36), help limit the sector's decline. The Tech sector also poses somewhat of a challenge today. On account of extended weakness in semiconductors and particular earnings-induced drops in Corning (GLW 23.96 -0.29), Parametric (PMTC 6.52 -0.33), and Computer Associates (CA 28.08 -0.80), the sector vacillates in and out of the red.

Separately, existing home sales fell 5.7% to 6.60 million (consensus 6.87 million) in December. While one report does not make a trend, it may serve as evidence that the implications of the Fed's tightening cycle are beginning to appear. DJ30 +9.78 NASDAQ -1.01 SP500 -1.35 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1505/1360/927.7 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1414/1734/793.7 mln

[ozymandius]

85. halfway through the witching hour

3:28
Dow 10,700.21 -12.01 (-0.11%)
Nasdaq 2,257.49 -7.76 (-0.34%)
S&P 500 1,263.12 -3.74 (-0.30%)
10-Yr Bond 44.79 +0.89 (+2.03%)
NYSE Volume 2,220,223,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,929,939,000

3:00 pm : Fading out of the afternoon's very tight trading range, the indices sink to their worst levels of the session. Eight of ten economic sectors now levy losses. Financial (-0.1%), which had managed to cling to a modest gain throughout most of the session, has recently fallen below the flat line. Insurance issues are the weakest links, but some pockets of relative strength remain. In spite of the Treasury market's submerged status, the particularly rate-sensitive banking industry retains its gain. An especial bright spot there is State Street Bank (STT 59.96 +0.98) - which is up 1.7% following its upgrade to Outperform from Underperform at Bear Stearns. While the sector's loss is modest, it gives muscle to the other seven sectors' declines. Leadership remains limited to respective 1.2% and 0.3% advances in the Telecom and Materials sectors, both of which have relatively little impact upon the overall market. DJ30 -24.57 NASDAQ -9.46 SP500 -6.00 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1750/1234/1.78 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1824/1444/1.38 bln

[UpInArms]

86. closing up the shop

Dow 10,709.74 -2.48 (-0.02%)
Nasdaq 2,260.65 -4.60 (-0.20%)
S&P 500 1,264.68 -2.18 (-0.17%)
10-Yr Bond 4.479 +0.89 (+2.03%)

NYSE Volume 2,616,502,000
Nasdaq Volume 2,237,308,000

Lackluster trading left Wednesday's market vacillating within proximity of the flat line for most of the session. A market-dragging drop in the Energy sector, coupled with a sharp decline in December home sales, squelched the early bullish bias and closed the indices with modest losses.

Although crude futures recovered much of their day-long decline, their pullback gave energy traders incentive to take some profits. An unexpected drawdown in crude supply was a bearish factor for the broader market, and the fact that gasoline and distillates inventories rose much better than expected exacerbated selling across the Energy sector (-2.0%). Further reports of solid earnings from energy companies, which today included Amerada Hess (AMH 60.56 +0.42) and ConcocPhillips (COP 63.29 -1.19) were offset, but nonetheless underpin our Overweight rating on Energy. Following disappointing fourth quarter results from Exelon (EXC 57.83 -1.03), the Utilities sector (-1.5%) also levied a weighty loss.

Plagued by a plunge in the homebuilding industry, Consumer Discretionary (-0.5%) similarly suffered selling. This morning, the economic calendar featured data that reflected a 5.7% decline in December existing home sales. While Ryland (RYL 70.40 -4.77) and Centex (CTX 70.80 -2.49) both reported strong quarterly earnings, each posted dismal new order numbers that further corroborated a slowdown in the housing market in the face of rising interest rates.

Behind the early buying action was some news on the M&A front. Confirmation that Disney (DIS 25.45 -0.54) will acquire Pixar (PIXR) for $7.4 billion underscored the idea that cash flow remains strong at many companies and will fuel the strong merger trend throughout the year; at the same time, DIS shares declined and weighed upon the Discretionary sector. As a side note, DIS is a stock that we continue to favor and is a member of our suggested portfolio for active investors. The two-month bidding war for Guidant (GDT 75.29 -1.49) ended with Boston Scientific's (BSX 23.55 -0.45) victory, but the news sent those individual stocks, as well as the trumped Johnson & Johnson (JNJ 58.55 -0.81), lower. Conversely, Abbott Labs (ABT 42.25 +2.19), which will acquire some of Guidant's assets as part of the deal, helped limit the Health Care sector's (-0.1%) slide. Abbott also delivered strong earnings results today, as did HMO WellPoint (WLP 72.85 -0.34).

Leadership was unspirited, and rested almost entirely within the Telecom (+1.6%) and Materials (+0.6%) sectors. Surging Allegheny Technology (ATI 46.93 +2.41) shares, due to its profit report, and Morgan Stanley's increase in 2006-2007 price assumptions on copper, aluminum, zinc, and gold boosted the former. Solid earnings from Bell South (BLS 27.40 +0.48) drove the latter.

Vacillating Technology (+0.1%) and Financial (+0.2%) sectors were in part responsible for the indices' dips in and out of the red. Uneasiness ahead of Qualcomm's (QCOM) report and an earnings-induced drop in Computer Associates (CA 27.74 -1.14) joined extended declines in TXN and AAPL in challenging Tech. The Financial sector, meanwhile, faced a submerged Treasury market and relative weakness across the insurance board. However, both of the market's two most influential sectors managed to regain positive - albeit modestly positive - footing before the bell, at which point the major averages erased much of their late day losses.DJ30 -2.48 NASDAQ -4.60 SP500 -2.18 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1659/1375/2.25 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1865/1455/1.87 bln