All signs point to a Tory election victory (Canada)

[Minstrel Boy]

All signs point to a Tory election victory

Lead in national poll continues
Key Liberals admit defeat possible

Jan. 16, 2006. 01:00 AM, Toronto Star

From a new Toronto Star poll to candid public admissions of looming Liberal defeat from a top party strategist and a cabinet minister, all signs point to a Conservative government with one week to go until election day.

...

Nationally, Harper's Conservatives enjoy the support of 38.6 per cent of decided voters compared to 27.2 per cent for Martin's Liberals, 18.6 per cent for Jack Layton's NDP, 10.6 per cent for Gilles Duceppe's Bloc Québécois, and 4.4 per cent for the Green party led by Jim Harris.

...

Graves said with 15 per cent of voters nationwide still undecided — "a very significant rise" more than double earlier surveys — much could happen between now and Jan. 23.

"We're seeing, for example, that there are as many Liberals who are willing to move to the NDP as vice versa and it's always been the other way around (with voters strategically deserting the New Democrats to go to the Liberals to stop the Tories)," he said.

Toronto Star

From same issue, Four leaders head into campaign's longest week:

...

Martin also knows he is spending a lot of time in Liberal strongholds, places no Liberal leader has had to go to shore up support in the dying days of a campaign in the recent past. He is well aware that no Liberal plan ever envisaged the notion that he would spend the last stretch of the campaign in Quebec fighting Harper rather than the Bloc Québécois.

In the best-case scenario for the Liberals, the next seven days would allow them to regroup and cut their losses, mostly by recouping as much ground as possible in Ontario and B.C. For that to happen, they desperately need polls to show significant movement their way. That has yet to happen.

Otherwise, in the worst-case Liberal scenario, the next week could see a draining of support that could turn Canada's natural governing party into a shadow of its once proud parliamentary self.

That is Jack Layton's best-case scenario. He is hoping this is the week the wheels finally fall off the Liberal campaign and turn the NDP into the natural alternative for progressive voters.

[Brundle_Fly]

1. I still think its not gonna be the blow out predicted.

you cannot get a good poll in Canada. The decentralized localization of the demographic is so mixed.

you would need a poll of each district to get a proper feel, and not 1000 random canadians.

[nicknameless]

2. Who does the polling? In the US, polls are often weighted in favor of

repugs. (They customarily poll more repugs than dems, etc.) If your media is conservative like ours is, they may try to discourage left-leaning voters by reporting heavy support for the conservatives.

[LiberalInGeorgia2005]

3. None

The Toronto Star and the Globe and Mail are liberal, the National Post is conservative.

[dutchdemocrat]

9. The Globe and Mail

Endorsed Harper and the Cons.

[nicknameless]

11. I very seriously doubt that.

[JeffR]

14. It's true

Last Saturday's Globe carried the endorsement.

The Globe is not a liberal newspaper. While they carry some of Canada's best left-leaning columnists, the editorial slant is pro-business, small-c conservative, laissez-faire. Farther to the right in the spectrum of Toronto newspapers are the Sun (Limbaugh-flavored trash aimed squarely at Joe Six-pack) and the National Post (right-wing trash dressed up all cosmopolitan, bleeding red ink BTW).

As an American with only landed immigrant status in Canada, I can't vote, but I force myself to watch the debates, read the polls, etc.

Harper may win this, but I don't think he'll get his majority. Which puts the NDP in a position of potentially considerable power. Keep your fingers crossed.

[nicknameless]

19. You may have misunderstood.

My doubts were of LiberalInGeorgia2005's description of Canada's newspapers' leanings. It's not atypical for newspapers, which carry columns by more liberal writers, to give resoundingly conservative election endorsements. So much of the media is conservative, only middle-of-the-road could have been credible without extensive elaboration.

Dutchdemocrat's observations seemed much more likely.

Well, I hope the projections are incorrect. The last thing this poor Earth needs is another conservative government.

My fingers are crossed.

[JeffR]

20. You're right. I did misunderstand.

Think I misunderestimated how much caffeine I needed this morning.

[daleo]

27. The Globe may be liberal by U.S. standards

For instance on the so-called cultural issues (gay marriage, etc), but they are generally support the Conservative Party nonetheless, for their neo-liberal (free trade, unrestricted markets, etc) economics.

[bluestateguy]

4. So most Canadians are voting for left of center parties

Looks like the Liberals are going to get "Nadered" by the NDP and the Greenies.

[regnaD kciN]

8. It's not quite the same thing...

...mainly because Canada has a parliamentary system. It seems to me that this election, even if it results in a Conservative plurality, will of necessity result in some sort of coalition. (The odds against an outright Conservative majority, rather that a plurality, are enormous.)

I would also tend to suspect that any Conservative-led government that may come out of this (something I'm not altogether sure will happen anyway) will likely not stay around for very long. The fact that the Liberals, NDP, and Greens (not to mention the Quebecois) will likely have more seats in Parliament would suggest that a no-confidence vote against a Tory PM would be rather quick in coming, leading to yet another election. You'd never see a situation like we have here in the U.S., where, no matter how unpopular Bush may get, we're still stuck with him for another three years.

[Minstrel Boy]

15. "Nadered"

The NDP has formed governments in nearly half the provinces and territories, including Ontario and BC, and its founder was recently voted the "Greatest Canadian" in a national televised poll. At his most popular, Nader was polling a tenth of what the federal NDP is currently. The comparison only reflects the poverty of example in the United States for viable third options.

Also, the Liberals are not left of centre. They are centre. They just talk a good left game when they want our votes.

[MrPrax]

17. Not at all the same thing...

Unlike Gore who couldn't carry his home state, Martin should have NO problem winning his seat and ditto for 'Nader' who is expected to win his seat.

But you meant to say, 'pissed off American voters are better managed in the US because it is way easier to disenfranchise them' ;-)

[John Q. Citizen]

5. What are the main differences politically between the Liberals and

the NDP?

[regnaD kciN]

6. As one Canadian explained it to me during their LAST election...

...the Liberal Party is pretty much DLC-clones: centrists whose main appeal is "we're not the Conservatives." The NDP is more economically populist, and corresponds to the area including, say, Ted Kennedy, Dennis Kucinich, and Ralph Nader.

I suspect most of those here would be NDPers in Canada.

[John Q. Citizen]

7. Thanks for the education. n/t

[depakid]

10. "most of those here would be NDPers in Canada."

Yep.

Roughly corresponds to the Liberal Democrats in the UK.

The Canadian "liberals" got corrupt- kinda like many of our Dems, and people have about had enough of it.

[Minstrel Boy]

12. no, not Liberal Democrats

The NDP is socialist/social democratic. Lib Dems position themselves, I believe, between Labour and Tories. The NDP positions itself to the left of the Liberals.

[depakid]

13. That used to be the case, but

things have changed:

Menzies Campbell: I will take Lib Dems to the left of Labour

Frontrunner rejects coalition strategy and pledges anti-poverty campaign

(he also stresses environmental issues- big time)

http://www.guardian.co.uk/guardianpolitics/story/0,3605,1685312,00.html

[MrPrax]

21. Well um..."left of the Liberals"

Until I see some evidence that mandatory sentencing/extending sentencing is a staple of the left's dialogue, we'll assume Jack is just lying to get votes ;-)

(oh and I don't think the Liberals REALLY intend to open up a constitutional round during a minority gov't either to do away with the notwithstanding clause either...I think Martin's fibbing...LOL)

How the hell they managed to lose against Harper man oh man

[zann725]

16. Pls. clarify...is the "Liberal" party in Canada same as here? Or reversed?

I saw a Canadian candiate debate on BBC the other night of the THREE major candidates. And I was confused of the Liberal/ Conservative candidate positions. Also, the one candidate in particularly oddly looked TOO "American"...not that there's a huge difference in demeanor between some Canadians and Americans. But my stage training makes me closely study movement, intonation, etc...and that one Candidate (thick medium brown hair...youngish)...looked TOO American to make me uncomfortable as to the true outcome of this election.

Call me Tin Foil, but...

[JohnyCanuck]

18. Sounds like you are referring to Stephen Harper (Conservative leaderer)

Harper, Bush Share Roots in Controversial Philosophy


Close advisors schooled in 'the noble lie' and 'regime change'.
By Donald Gutstein
Published: November 29, 2005

TheTyee.ca

What do close advisors to Stephen Harper and George W. Bush have in common? They reflect the disturbing teachings of Leo Strauss, the German-Jewish émigré who spawned the neoconservative movement.

Strauss, who died in 1973, believed in the inherent inequality of humanity. Most people, he famously taught, are too stupid to make informed decisions about their political affairs. Elite philosophers must decide on affairs of state for us.

In Washington, Straussians exert powerful influence from within the inner circle of the White House. In Canada, they roost, for now, in the so-called Calgary School, guiding Harper in framing his election strategies. What preoccupies Straussians in both places is the question of "regime change."

Strauss defined a regime as a set of governing ideas, institutions and traditions. The neoconservatives in the Bush administration, who secretly conspired to make the invasion of Iraq a certainty, had a precise plan for regime change. They weren't out to merely replace Saddam with an American puppet. They planned to make the system more like the U.S., with an electoral process that can be manipulated by the elites, corporate control over the levers of power and socially conservative values.

http://thetyee.ca/Mediacheck/2005/11/29/HarperBush/

[zann725]

38. This is EXACTLY who I was referring to. And watching the debate,

something was something curiously "American intervention in other countries elections" AGAIN about this Harper guy. His "difference" from the other two candidates stood out so much during the debates, it set off my "be ware" alarms all through it.

[Minstrel Boy]

23. Canadian Liberal Party is the pragmatic centre.

Though granted, the Canadian centre is well to the left of the American. But the Liberals are a very big tent that even includes some social conservative MPs. For instance, Tom Wappel in a mailing to his constituents in 2003: "Since 1994, I have crisscrossed the country, trying to raise awareness amongst Canadians that the institution of marriage was under attack by the activist homosexual agenda."

Liberals tend to campaign from the left and govern, when given a free hand, from the right. At least as most Canadian leftists see it.

[zann725]

39. I think that's what confused me. Sort of like, politically 'bi-polar?"

Though still sounds far better than anything (by ANY name) here in America at present.

[Minstrel Boy]

24. new NDP ad targetting disaffected Liberals

See ad "Former Liberals."

They're also launching an aggressive BC ad campaign today attacking Harper, comparing him to Liberal Premier Gordon Campbell.

story:


OTTAWA -- B.C. Premier Gordon Campbell will be used as a weapon by the New Democratic Party in an escalating federal election advertising war as Jack Layton's party tries to revive hopes of a breakthrough on the West Coast.

Campbell will be linked to Conservative leader Stephen Harper as the NDP bombards TV viewers and radio listeners with a multipronged, multilingual and costly ad campaign that sends different messages -- sometimes in different languages -- to various regions of the province.

...

"After years of Liberal corruption it's time for a change, but the Conservatives want tax cuts for banks and oil companies," states one ad that will be broadcast starting today in NDP-Tory battlegrounds like Vancouver Island, in and around Prince Rupert, and parts of the B.C. Interior.

"That means cuts to public services. Just like Gordon Campbell."

[JeffR]

22. Something you may want to check out

<http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20060103/ELXN_attack_ads_060103/20060103?s_name=election2006>

Hope this links works. It's a piece about the recent attack ads. The Liberals did a good one with a subtle appeal to Canadian patriotism, linking Harper and Bush. You can see some of the ads here:


<http://www.liberal.ca/multimedia_e.aspx>

[AX10]

25. This is a test of Canadians intelligence?

Are Canadians any smarter than Americans? We'll see.

[dsc]

26. Just terrific

We see Canada become the third country to legalize marriage equality and it will be gone like the wind. Thanks to Liberal bumbling and NDP targetting them it will be all over.

[Minstrel Boy]

28. Liberals are liberals of convenience, not conviction

More than two dozen Liberal MPs voted against same sex marriage and with the Conservatives, and many others stayed away from the vote. It passed only because of solid support from the NDP and the Bloc. (One NDP MP didn't support it, and she was forced from the party.)

Here's Liberal MP Tom Wappel, from his website:

"Since 1994, I have crisscrossed the country, trying to raise awareness amongst Canadians that the institution of marriage was under attack by the activist homosexual agenda."

Fortunately he's in a tightening 3-way race now, and could be defeated by NDP Dan Harris.

Liberals are worse than bunglers. They're hypocrites and bastards, too.

[dsc]

29. The Bloq has been a revelation

I will admit they have really been stand up as has the NDP but the Liberals also did a good job here. Yes, some are bad, but the majority provided the votes for this and I hate to see it go. Conservatives could end up with a majority after this is all said and done. That would be a total disaster.

[Lisa]

30. here's hoping Harper snatches defeat from the jaws of victory! (n/t)

[Joey Liberal]

31. Canadians cannot be that dumb

But then, I never thought we would have the current Moron-in-Chief in the White House either. If the Canucks elect a conservative Government, they'll get what they deserve............

[Zomby Woof]

32. Sure they can

They're just human beings like everyone else - capable of being some stupid and shortsighted fuckers.

[liberalpragmatist]

36. Well, if people aren't happy with the Liberals...

... who are they going to vote for? That's democracy.

And especially given the Liberals' political scandals, do they really expect people to stick with them?

Personally, I would vote NDP if I were a Canadian, but I could understand voting Conservative. After all, there are plenty of liberals who would vote for Republicans if the local or state Democrats are corrupt. Of course, often those Republicans are just as corrupt, if not more so.

Anyway, I think a competitive party system with parties trading power is best, even though I vote Democrat. Having power held by the same party for a very long stretch of time is not healthy in any political system.

[Minstrel Boy]

33. a huge poll just released

has similar numbers:

A new poll conducted by Ipsos Reid for CanWest/Global is predicting that Stephen Harper’s Tories have edged closer to a majority win on Jan. 23, while NDP Leader Jack Layton offered a unique counter-strategy, asking disaffected Grits to lend him their votes while the Liberal party repairs itself.

...

With one week to voting day, results of the Ipsos Reid poll show Conservatives continuing to lead nationally with a 12-point lead over the Liberals. Conservative support stands at 38 per cent, while the Liberals are at 26 per cent.

The Ipsos poll of 8,256 Canadians taken from Jan. 13-15 also shows the NDP rising one point to 19 per cent, and the Green Party holding steady at five per cent.

The poll is said to be accurate to within 1.1 per centage points 19 times out of 20.

http://www.canada.com/globaltv/national/story.html?id=78986680-7615-42f9-b948-d6d03c073e56#

[daleo]

34. CPAC/SES shows 7 or 8 point difference

37% Conservative, 29% Liberal, 18% NDP.

I'm watching that poll.

[Minstrel Boy]

35. I'm watching that too.

They roll out a new one every day at 2pm. But the sample size is only 1,200. This Ipsos Reid poll is over 8,000 with a margin of error of just over 1%.

The Liberals can't recover. They have too much baggage, ran a lousy campaign and they can't counter the "it's time for a change" avalanche.

[daleo]

37. I see it as a matter of bias, rather than methodology

Sometimes a big sample just gives lots of room to play with the data, if the survey analyst has a bias (conscious or unconscious). But time will tell.

I think the popular vote will be close, with Liberals and Conservatives both a point or two around 33%. Just a hunch.

[Minstrel Boy]

42. speaking of bias, the Strategic Council polls

first ask "which party do you think has the greatest momentum?" before asking "which party do you support?" No wonder those polls are the ones showing the Conservatives furthest in front. (And no wonder those are commissioned by Conservative cheerleaders CTV and Globe and Mail.)

[daleo]

49. Yes, they seem the most biased of all the polls

I put no stock in them at all.

[daleo]

53. Here's todays CPAC/SES

Cons 37
Lib 29
NDP 18
BQ 11
Green 5

An interesting feature of the poll is the distribution of regional sample sizes, which you can infer pretty well from the regional margins of error.

Atl Can 100
Queb 265
Ont 295
West 370
Total 1030

They say the decided sample size is 1038, but this is the closest breakdown I could get using the stated MOE.

Here is the inferred pct sample size by region, vs the pct of seats in Parliament:

Atl Can 9.7 10.4
Queb 25.7 24.4
Ont 28.6 34.4
West 35.9 30.8

So, you can see the west is being oversampled and Ontario is being undersampled. If you adjust for this, the Conservative's 8 point lead goes to a 7 point lead.

Anyway, that's small beer but I went through the exercises to show how subtle things like this can bias a poll, either consciously or unconsciously. I actually don't think CPAC/SES does much of this on purpose, though. The others I have my doubts about.

[Minstrel Boy]

54. I think that may be yesterday's

I don't see Jan 16's up yet on their site, and those are the same numbers as Jan 15th. Today's should be up around 2:00 EST.

I hate that they lump everything west of Ont as "WEST." They should at least distinguish BC, it's voting patterns are far different than the Prairies and quite volatile this election.

[Minstrel Boy]

55. Here's today's:

CPC 37
LIB 30
NDP 19
BQ 10
GR 4


pdf

[daleo]

57. OK, thanks

My version says January 16, 2006. This morning was the first time I could download that poll, and get a look at the regional breakdowns. It looks like things have tightened a bit more then, with both the Liberals and NDP up a percentage point. I am surprised the Conservative poll number didn't budge, but I think they got a break on the rounding there. I think these polls will end the week at about 33-32-21. Again, just an educated guess.

I definitely do not see a Conservative majority.

I note that the date on the detailed breakdown document I used was Jan 16, but the poll is actually dated Jan 15.

[daleo]

58. You're right about B.C.

A good case could also be made that Alberta should be broken out separately, as all its inclusion does is pad the combined poll results for the Conservatives in the west. Saskatchewan and Manitoba vote more like B.C. than they do Alberta (think of the NDP governments that all three provinces have had).

[Commie Pinko Dirtbag]

40. 38% is "close to a majority?"

Since when?

[Minstrel Boy]

41. reference is to a majority of seats

in Parliament.

Canada doesn't have proportional representation (yet), so we have elections in which a party winning less than 40% of the vote can win more than 50% of the legislature.

[Commie Pinko Dirtbag]

43. How come this kind of asymmetries ALWAYS favors the Right????

(No need to answer, that was rhetorical.)

[Minstrel Boy]

44. In Canada at least, I think it's largely because

urban areas - where most progressive votes are found - are underrepresented. Some rural constituencies have a tenth or less of the population of those found in Toronto.

[Freddie Stubbs]

52. The Liberals have gotten majorities in Parliament with only a plurality

of the votes.

[coldiggs]

45. That just show what happens to a party that had a bunch of crucks in it.

[Chicago1]

46. Can we rig the voting machines?

GIGGLE, GIGGLE, GIGGLE, GIGGLE.

I know, I know..but I thought it was funny.


START THE REVOLUTION
START THE IMPEACHMENT

[Hand]

51. Nope...

Voting in Canada uses hardware and software... the hardware is a pencil and the software is a paper ballot. You mark an X next to the candidate you want to vote for. The votes are counted individually by a group of human beings.

It's quite simple--although one year the guy ahead of me was so far gone in his dotage that he found it all quite baffling.

[Posteritatis]

56. Our graphite-and-wood-based voting machines are hard to rig.. (n/t)

[patcox2]

47. I was in Canada in September, saw headline "Is Conservatism Dead?"

It was the cover of McLeans magazine, the cover was all black as if it were the announcement of a death, I remember picking it up and showing it to my wife and saying "wish we had headlines like this back home."

What happened?

[Freddie Stubbs]

48. Sometimes moral indignation over corruption trumps ideology

That is why Tom Delay is currently behind in the polls in his district, despite the district's GOP majority.

[Minstrel Boy]

50. I didn't read that, but knowing Macleans, my guess is

the answer was "Hell no!" It's publisher is a neo-con and it's owned by a right-tilting media conglomerate.

But the election isn't driven by ideology. Harper's gagged his candidates, because he knows scary things come out of their mouths. He's been styling himself as a moderate centrist, because he knows that's what wins. Most Canadians expect and want liberal government, even when they've elected Conservatives. It's happened before, when the party was the Progressive Conservatives. But these are the new, hard-right conservatives, masquerading as the old. But most Canadians who don't follow politics slavishly aren't making the distinction. They just think it's "time for a change." Which it is. But I think they'll get more change than they bargained for.