More Human Bird Flu Cases Found In Turkey

[ECH1969]

Health authorities said preliminary tests in Turkey show five more people have tested positive for the deadly H5N1 strain of bird flu.

That raises the number of people who have contracted the fatal strain to at least seven. A British laboratory has confirmed the findings for at least one of them -- a 5-year-old.

Two teenage siblings who died of bird flu in Turkey this week were infected with the deadly H5N1 strain of the virus, the first time the strain has killed humans outside East Asia, the U.N. health agency said Saturday.

The World Health Organization said it was sending specialists to Turkey to determine whether the virus was transmitted from person to person.

http://www.theindychannel.com/health/5927648/detail.html

[Surya Gayatri]

1. Yeah, for us here

in Europe, this is really getting too close for comfort. Look for the next oubreak in Italy or elsewhere in southern Europe. SG

[DoYouEverWonder]

2. So far the cluster is in one family who live close to poultry

There is no evidence of human to human transmission still.


"Cheng said the Turkish cases were in a rural region with a lot of poultry farming and where people tend to live in very close proximity to their poultry."

[tatertop]

3. Exactly. Looks like bird to human transmission.

[Maddy McCall]

5. Problem is, it hasn't been conclusively proven in Turkey yet...

whether or not any of the cases are human to human. There are at least 50 people infected in Turkey right now...which seems to be a higher density of infection than was occurring in SE Asia.

And it's just a matter of time until Western Europe reports its first infections.

It's heading west. And undoubtedly it's mutating, as all viruses do through time. Hopefully, it won't be as virulent when it does mutate to be passed from human to human.

[SaveElmer]

11. Nowhere near 50 has been confirmed...

In fact they suspect that most of the cases outside this area (other than the 3 in Ankara), probably are not bird flu...

"Turkish Health Minister Recep Akdag said none of the cases outside of Van appeared to be "probable" or "strongly probable" bird flu cases."

There are 10 confirmed right now, and all of the suspected cases are in people believed to have been in close contact with sick birds.

Jumping to conclusions before the facts are even in does not seem a wise thing to do.

Having said that, this media spotlight on Turkey is probably a good thing in that it will push them to redouble their efforts to contain the virus in these areas.

[Maddy McCall]

4. Actually, there are 50 people believed to be infected.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,25149-1974978,00.html

And, as this article states:

"The more the virus comes into contact with humans, the more likely it is to mutate into a form that can be transmitted between people. This has not yet happened; if it does it could start a global pandemic."

[DoYouEverWonder]

6. Too many ifs and maybes in all these bird flu statements

You can say this about almost any senerio you want to imagine. If this happened, then maybe that will happen as a result. Then again maybe not.

Avian flu has been around for 1000's of years. So far it hasn't made the jump.

[Maddy McCall]

7. H5N1 hasn't been around for thousands of years.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but, in recent history, has there been as lethal a form of avian flu as H5N1?

There are no ifs as far as I see it. It WILL continue move west. It WILL continue to mutate. It WILL continue to be passed, with 50% mortality, from birds to humans. That's scary in its own right. The only IF that could make this of catastrophic proportions is whether or not it will mutate to be passed human-to-human.

[DoYouEverWonder]

10. Depends on how you define 'lethal' but I would say yes.

A quick trip through the history of pandemic influenza

Influenza is an ancient disease. It is first described by Hippocrates in 412 BC, though the term "influenza" would not be coined until the 14th century. ("Influenza" is Italian for "influence," as the prevailing idea of disease causation at that time was the influence of the stars). In 1580, a disease originating from Asia and thought to be influenza swept through Europe, Africa, and the Americas on trade routes. While these cannot be confirmed as influenza, a better handle on the symptoms of the disease makes it likely that several influenza pandemics occurred in the 1800s: in 1833, 1836, 1847 and 1889.

The worst influenza pandemic in recorded history took place in 1918-1919. At least 40 million, and likely closer to 100 million deaths worldwide have been attributed to the virus, most of them occurring in the 16-week period between September-December 1918. In large U.S cities, more than 10,000 deaths per week were attributed to the virus. It is estimated that as many as 50% of the population was infected, and ~1% died. To compare, in “normal” (interpandemic) years, it is estimated that between 10-20% of the population is infected, with a .008% mortality.

<snip>

Though the 1918 pandemic has been the most dramatic example of the killing potential of influenza, there have been 2 other pandemics in the last 100 years. In 1957, a H2N2 virus appeared in China. This “Asian flu” quickly swept through the population, replacing the previously-circulating H1N1 virus and killing 70,000 in the U.S. Similarly, in 1968, an H3N2 virus emerged from Hong Kong to replace the H2N2 virus. This pandemic resulted in 34,000 American deaths. The H1N1 serotype re-surfaced in 1977, and currently, H3N2, H1N1, and reassortant H1N2 viruses circulate in the human population.

The H1N1 caused an additional scare in 1976. In January of that year, a private at Fort Dix, New Jersey, collapsed and died following a march. It was determined that he died of “swine flu,” serotype H1N1. Although he was the only death at the fort, health officials were highly concerned. Secretary of health F. David Matthews stated that there is evidence there will be a major flu epidemic this coming fall. The indication is that we will see a return of the 1918 flu virus that is the most virulent form of flu. In 1918, half a million people died. The projections are that this virus will kill one million Americans in 1976.


With hindsight, we can see that a proclamation with this level of certainty is folly, but at the time, it was thought that influenza cycled in a fairly regular pattern, varying between very high pathogenicity strains and lower pathogenicity strains. It was thought that the world was overdue for another high pathogenicity strain, and that the “swine flu” virus just might be the one. In March of 1976, President Ford announced that he would ask Congress for funds to produce enough vaccine “to inoculate every man, woman, and child in the United States.” Of course, this epidemic never materialized, and actually dealt a blow to the influenza vaccine campaign, as reported side effects of the vaccine included Guillain-Barré syndrome, a debilitating neurologic condition.

Looking back, one can certainly draw parallels between the scare and build-up to vaccination in 1976 and today with H5N1. However, just because that pandemic never materialized does not mean that the same thing will happen with today’s “avian flu.” At this point, we just don’t know, but it behooves us to hope for the best, but prepare for the worst.

http://aetiology.blogspot.com/2005/10/pandemic-influenza-awareness-week-day.html

[Maddy McCall]

17. Thanks for that reference.

We'll see what happens. I'll err on the side of caution, with the CDC.

News this morning has infections spreading to western Turkey. Do you deny that it will spread to western Europe and then to the Americas?

[DoYouEverWonder]

19. Among birds, yes it is spreading and for the poultry industry

is a very serious problem.

As for it coming here and infecting our poultry it may take awhile if it happens at all.

As for humans, as long as the CDC does their job, I wouldn't worry about it until there is evidence that the disease has made the jump to human to human transmission, if it ever does.

[tavalon]

34. Avian flues of various types have been around for who knows how long

H5N1 has been around since 1997 and in that time has had unprecedented spread among wild and domestic fowl and has even crossed into species that don't normally get avian flu variants (tigers for one). I really think you need to do a bit of research on this. Ignore this danger at your peril.

[DoYouEverWonder]

36. Since it wasn't until the early/mid 1800's

that we even knew germs caused diseases how the hell can anyone know how long H5N1 or any variant has been around?

One thing about all these pandemic scenarios that these reports fail to take into account is that now in the 21st Century, at least in the US, we have much better communication and methods of control the spread of disease among humans. That's part of the reason why we didn't all get SARS, which was the last big scare.

Sorry, I refuse to be afraid of something that might happen if something else happens. Not much I can personally do about it anyway until it becomes a real problem.

Back in the 80's when AIDS first came to national attention, I was working at Jackson Mem in Miami with premature infants in their high risk clinic. At the time, we had no idea how AIDS spread, except that is was through body liquids and could not be detected in infants until they were 6 months old. Gee great, babies leak all over the place. But guess what, we all lived.

[tavalon]

37. Interesting

that means you work or worked in healthcare. If you didn't use the universal precautions, that's just proof that HIV isn't all that easy to get as you well know. Hepatitis B is far easier to get.

Great, so if H5N1 did exist in the 1800's all of the 105+ year individuals can breathe a sigh of relief. They're likely immune assuming H5N1 was around in 1899, that is. Now, of course, since H5N1 is currently killing millions of birds worldwide, I'm sure it did a similar thing in 1899. Funny, I don't think you'll find that was the case.

So just what exactly do you think our fine communication is going to do for us when this or another 21st century pandemic flu hits? And what exactly are those methods of control that are going to control the spread of this disease? And lastly, if you had done your research on SARS you would know that it's ability to move from human to human turned out to be less efficient than was feared. Didn't help China any though, they took a multi-billion dollar hit because of it. Oh, and their communication system wasn't worth shit during that potential disaster.

There is in fact plenty you can do. It may or may not save your life. Your choice. You can always wait until AT&T lets you know it's coming. There won't be anything left in the stores by then, but hey, live and learn.

I'd suggest you leave these conversations to those of us who want to discuss it and make sure that we are, in fact, ready.

Fear and panic are stupid, education priceless.

Edited to add an article that spells things out fairly well: http://www.montereyherald.com/mld/montereyherald/news/world/13586752.htm

[VirginiaDem]

38. exactly this

"So just what exactly do you think our fine communication is going to do for us when this or another 21st century pandemic flu hits?"

It will allow us to do exactly what we're doing about it now--discuss and learn. Why is is that the whole world knows about all of these backwoods outbreaks? It's the Internets. Just speaking now about the developed world--if bird flu switches to human-to-human, then the developing world, especially Asia and Eastern Europe are in big trouble. But the developing world will see it coming and have partially prepared. We will be ready to quarantine hospitals, close down schools, and shut down airlines going in and out of countries (such as China during SARS). People in the developing world will be well aware of the outbreak and the prevention measures (stay away from crowds, wash your hands with soap and water, etc.). This will greatly reduce transmission rates. It's not foolproof but I guarantee that, for better or worse, a pandemic will affect the developing and developed worlds in entirely different ways and that will be because we are relatively better prepared.

[tavalon]

40. Entirely different ways is correct

We will likely have less overall flu, but I suspect our infrastructure (because we actually have one) will be hit much harder. Who is going to be staying home with those kids given that most families are two income families. How many people will panic and refuse to go to work anyway? How many Kroger, Safeway, Albertsons employees to be specific? How many truckers are going to go out into the flu ridden world to take food to those stores? How long do you think the hospitals will be able to continue to take patients when the sickest will need ventilators and we are currently using 80% of our ventilators? How many times have you been coughed on in the subway, at work, on the bus, in a crowd, not that there will be any of those? This virus currently has an icubation period of 3 - 16 days. Are you planning on closing the airlines before or after the asymptomatic people get here?

These are just a few things I learned about at the conference I went to last month. You wanna hear about the MASH units they hope to set up but won't have the staff for or about the mortuaries that have no clue how they will handle even a 1% mortality? How about the fact that we don't have any system set up for deciding who gets those ventilators and who even gets to be in the hospitals once they overflow. I'm talking about here in the U.S. People from the CDC and WHO told us they know that quarantining won't stop it, it will just hopefully slow it down enough to give us time to create a vaccine and save some people but not all. We won't be unscathed and as was iterated and reiterated at that conference, we are not better prepared, relatively or otherwise.

Therefore, we won't be able to rely on our government, national, state or local. Food, flashlights, batteries, water, alternate source of food cooking, adequate blankets, N95 repirator masks, these are a few of the things that will separate those who will live in a our fragile pyramid of a country (assuming you are talking about America, though it will go the same way in England) from those who will not. Reflect back if you will to New Orleans last September. Not all of those people drowned and neither will the flu be the only killer during a pandemic. You can't wash your hands enough to find food in that kind of a situation.

[VirginiaDem]

41. This is all based on the assumption that virus spreads

here quickly and effectively. I doubt that it will get that far for the reasons I stated above. You're right that once it starts preventing it will be difficult and expensive but that's a different deal than dealing with a pandemic. Will people stay home from work to take care of kids? I expect enough of them will to greatly reduce the rate of infection, which is the key to prevention.

The scenario you have drawn is possible, though, and we should be preparing for this better than we have been. I'll certainly grant you that.

[tavalon]

43. Yep

I found a site tonight that while I haven't thoroughly researched it, looks like it is a good nuts and bolts site. It's better than www.pandemicflu.gov which seems overly vague to me. It's:

http://www.planforflu.com/home

[IChing]

8. Human Bird Flu Cases Found In Turkey

I guess I shouldn't eat turkey then, OK bad pun

Let's hope it doesn't spread, but two cases doesn't make me worry enough to declare
Martial Law.

[bahrbearian]

9. Just lots of people playing with chicken heads.

[lovuian]

12. I think people are being a bit passe with this when its extremely

serious and let me put on the tinfoil hat here and say

Would a country like Turkey which is a major hub of trade with Europe and Asia want its neighbors to know it has Bird Flu and people contaminated with it...

trade with Turkey would shut down instantly and devastate the population...

So yes your hearing stories about playing with chicken heads and maybe and probably cause id it was

Human to Human and pandemic it would shut down the country...

and Turkey has NEVER been a very upfront country...

the real news will come out and of course they will not want to instill a panic but I think its coming...

[SaveElmer]

13. If that were true...

Turkey would bar WHO officials from investigating. In fact the opposite is happening. They would also limit media coverage which they clearly have not done.

This type of wild speculation has occurred with every outbreak since 1998.

The situation as it is known now indicates there are 10 confirmed cases, all in people that have had close contact with sick fowl. Many have gone to the hospital concerned because they had contact with fowl, but it is likely most of them do not have the disease. All of those being treated for suspected cases, with the exception of 3 in Ankara, are in this same province. Whole groups of families are not becoming infected. The family with three children dead (playing with dead chickens) sees both parents unaffected even though they were in close contact with their children during their illness.

Clearly, at least in this area, Turkey has not been good at containing the disease in birds. Hopefully with this outbreak being publicized as it is, they will step up their efforts.

[lovuian]

21. I'll play devils advocate... Who came in on insistence of Europe

not Turkey because they saw the country wasn't taking care of the situation

I always find it fascinating to watch a bureacrat try to stop a flu... those little buggs don't follow your commands ... they have yes men telling them the stories they WANT to hear ... but then when its really serious its gotten out of hand... we are getting to that point with the closing the borders with Iran...

Turkey had bird flu over 4 months ago and was slow to react and now we have this... that WHO is investigating it going to human to human well that is telling me WHOAH... Everybody has to be nervous as hell...

[tavalon]

35. Actually, no

WHO has been going into every area that has had a human case since 1997. That said, I just posted something that shows that the bureaucrats are the people at the WHO and they have, in my opinion, fucked up badly. At this point we need solid information on how many people have in fact been infected with H5N1 and they haven't done the appropriate foot work (actually blood work) to make that happen.

[Media_Lies_Daily]

47. Actually, no they haven't. China had something going on that caused....

...some internal turmoil involving the razing of 3-4 villages, killing of ALL animals paricularly poultry and pigs, and the forced "relocation" of the population. The reports coming out of China were somewhat confusing, but the number of human dead was reported to have been in the 700 to 750 range. Reports of these activities were relayed by Chinese bloggers to various internet sites outside of China until those bloggers were shut down and the operators arrested.

The key point here is that China refused to allow any outside agency, including WHO, into China until they had dealt with the problem noted above. This response by the Chinese government was identical to their response to the outside world when it became know that they had a problem with SARS.

The government of Vietnam was also very reluctant to allow outsiders to come to their country to observe their response to Avian Flu. The death rate in the southern part of Vietnam was close to 100%...the death rate in the north was about 70%.

Part of the problem is attempting to recognize the symptoms of an Avian-based influenza. Here are some excerpts from pages 234-236 of "The Great Influenza" written by John M. Barry about the 1918 Pandemic:

"Patients would writhe from agonizing pain in their joints. Doctors would diagnose dengue, also called 'breakbone fever'.

Patients would suffer extreme fever and chills, shuddering, shivering, then huddling under blankets. Doctors would diagnose malaria".

Dr. Henry Berg at New York City's Willard Park Hospital--across the street from William Park's laboratory--worried the patient's complaints of a 'burning pain above the diaphragm' meant cholera. Noted another doctor, 'Many had vomiting; some became tender over the abdomen indicating an intra-abdominal condition'".

In Paris, while some physicians also diagnosed cholera or dysentery, others interpreted the intensity and location of headache pain as typhoid. Deep into the epidemic Prisian physicians still remained reluctant to diagnose influenza. In Spain public health officials also declared that the complications were due to 'typhoid', which was 'general throughout Spain'.

But neither typhoid nor cholera, neither dengue nor yellow fever, neither plague nor tuberculosis, neither diptheria nor dysentery, could account for other symptoms. No known disease could.

In 'Proceedings of the Royal Society of Medicine', a British physician noted 'one thing I have never seen before--namely the occurrence of subcutaneous emphysema'--pockets of air accumulating just beneath the skin--'beginning in the neck and spreading sometimes over the whole body'"

Those pockets of air leaking through ruptured lungs made patients crackle when they were rolled onto their sides. One navy nurse later compared the sound to a bowl of rice krispies, and the memory of that sound was so vivid to her that for the rest of her life she could not tolerate being around anyone who was eating rice krispies".

Extreme earaches were common. One physician noted that otitis media--inflammation of the middle ear marked by pain, fever, and dizziness--'developed with surprising rapidity, and rupture of the drum membrane was observed at times in a few hours after the onset of pain'. Another wrote, 'Otitis media reported in 41 cases. Otologists on duty day and night and did immediate paracentisis on all bulging eardrums...'. Another: 'Discharge of pus from the external ear was noted. At autopsy practically every case showed otitis media with perforation....This destructive action on the drum seems to me to be similar to the destructive action on the tissues of the lung.'

"The headaches throbbed deep in the skull, victims feeling as if their heads would literally split open, as if a sledgehammer were driving a wedge not into the head but from inside the head out. The pain seemed to locate particularly behind the eye orbit and could be nearly unbearable when patients moved their eyes. There were areas of lost vision, areas whwere the normal frame of sight went black. Some paralysis of ocular muscles was frequently recorded, and German medical literature noted eye involvement with special frequency, sometimes in 25 percent of influenza cases.

The ability to smell was affected, sometimes for weeks. Rarer complications included acute--even fatal--renal failure. Reye's syndrome attacked the liver. An army summary later stated simply, 'The symptoms were of exceeding variety as to severity and kind'.

Please note the various mistaken diagnoses in 1918 mentioned above...dengue fever, malaria, cholera, dysentery, typhoid, yellow fever, and diptheria. Other symptoms included major earaches and headaches. I would like to draw your attention to the number of countries in close proximity to China, and along the migratory bird routes leading out of China, that have reported the exact same illnesses noted above. Part of the problem is a lack of medical testing to confirm their diagnoses....we don't know for sure what they had.

[Moochy]

14. So far it's just Bird to Human transmission

Turkey is not taking any chances, and has set up quarantines of 3 major cities.

[Dogmudgeon]

15. Waiting for the morbidity/mortality drop

Typically, as human transmissibility (animal-human or human-human) develops, morbidity decreases, and mortality decreases sharply. Right now, H5N1 Avian is highly lethal -- I think it's still over 60% lethal -- but even the 1918 Spanish Flu was "only" about 4-8% lethal.

It is possible that the dominant human strain, when and if it develops, will be a low-mortality flu. Not that we should relax our guard about this.

If this particular variant turns out to be THE human-human strain, and it maintains its ability to sicken and kill, it would be historically unprecedented. It would also alter history unlike anything we've known. That's the low-probability scenario, but it's the one the CDC and WHO worry about.

--p!

[SaveElmer]

18. I read..

That two of the cases were in children that didn't show any symptoms.

[megatherium]

20. "Only" 4-8% mortality would be disastrous today in the US.

It would shut down the economy for months. Just in 1918, everyone would have relatives or good friends who died. What is scary about the 1918 pandemic influenza is that there is reason to believe that those who died often died because of the hemorrhagic-fever-like symptoms of the virus itself, not secondary pneumonia. (An unusually high percentage of the victims of the 1918 pandemic were young adults.) What's also scary is that the worst-affected regions of the world may have experienced even higher mortality (parts of the Indian subcontinent).

The risk of this happening today is probably not that high. But it is not zero either.

[VirginiaDem]

39. Do you mean 4-8% of the population or of the infected?

Because 4-8 % of the population is not going to happen anywhere in the developed world and definitely not in North America. You could see this high of a rate somewhere in the developing world I suppose. If you mean 4-8% of the infected then we don't know how extensive the problem would be without knowing the number of infected.

[Media_Lies_Daily]

44. You seem to be ignoring the fact that here in the U. S......

...90% of the population lives in urban population centers. Once, not if, Avian Flu becomes easily communicable between humans, there will be no way to stop the spread of the disease in the U. S. Additionally, humans are infectious long before they begin to exhibit symptoms, which will make it even more difficult to contain the disease.

Currently, the death rate of those becoming infected by Avian Flu is between 50% and 60%. There is no guarantee that the death rate will drop below 50% to 60% once the disease begins to efficiently infect in a human-to-human mode. We won't know the death rate of a future pandemic until it actually begins taking place.

One more point. There is no vaccine that is currently effective against whatever future variant of Avian Flu that will become transmissable in an human-to-human mode. Once that variant emerges, it will take about six months to develop a vaccine, and another six monts to a year to begin to mass produce it. How many people will become infected, and how many will die, in that year and a half?

[SaveElmer]

50. See this new evidence...

As many have suspected, the Bird Flu may not be as deadly as the mortality rate of those hospitalized would indicate.

Also, of those suspected of being infected in Turkey currently (up to 70, though not confirmed), none are in critical condition.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/10775591/

[megatherium]

51. Not sure, but I think it's 4-8% of the infected.

But every year a large fraction of the population gets infected, so it's still a high mortality rate. But please don't be certain this isn't possible in the US! One point I was trying to make is that influenza viruses are capable of being highly lethal on their own (not requiring secondary bacterial infections to kill the victim); so antibiotics or other modern medicine might be of no avail. Now we do have antivirals, unfortunately we do not have adequate supplies of these, and they might not be effective due to the unfortunate practice of over-using antivirals in poultry flocks to prevent avian influenza mortality (allowing the virus to evolve resistance to these drugs). Influenza is highly contagious; it will spread rapidly even before symptoms appear.

I'm not a doom-and-gloomer -- the risk isn't that high, but there is a danger of an influenza pandemic that could kill hundreds of thousands of Americans; at least according to serious epidemiologists.

I remember a rather somber bit of history, circa 1983. The AIDS epidemic was underway, and although the virus responsible had yet to be identified, it was clear that it was viral. Now it was assumed that the actual AIDS cases represented only a small portion of the the people infected by the mystery virus; it was assumed that most people infected had or would develop only a mild syndrome. That is, it was assumed that the mortality to the virus would be relatively low. It was known that there were people who had not developed AIDS but had flu-like symptoms (fatigue, fevers) and swollen lymph glands (lymphodenopathy); it was correctly assumed this was the same mystery virus. The number of people with AIDS was much smaller than the number of people with this syndrome. It was reasonable to guess that only some of the people with lymphodenopathy would progress to full-blown AIDS; at one point in 1983, they thought perhaps 20% at most. Unfortunately, we now know that the mild "HIV disease" patients almost invariably progress to full-blown AIDS and it takes an average of 10 years for this to happen. The original guess that only a small fraction of infected would develop AIDS turned out to be wrong -- HIV turns out to have up to 90% mortality. (By the way, if anyone doubts HIV causes AIDS, please skate over to The Evidence HIV Causes AIDS Factsheet.)

[shugah]

16. Five More Infected With Bird Flu in Turkey

Five More Infected With Bird Flu in Turkey
Tests Show Five More People Infected With Deadly Bird-Flu Strain in Turkey, Bringing Total to 15
By BENJAMIN HARVEY Associated Press Writer

DOGUBAYAZIT, Turkey Jan 9, 2006 — Preliminary tests showed five more people have been infected with the deadly H5N1 strain of the bird flu virus in Turkey, a Health Ministry official said Monday. The new results raise the number of human cases in Turkey to 15. Not all have been confirmed yet by the World Health Organization.

A WHO official warned that the chances the disease may mutate into a dangerous form increase with every new human infection.

Turkish labs detected H5N1 in the five new cases, which were discovered in four separate provinces, according to a Health Ministry official speaking on condition of anonymity because she was not authorized to speak to the media.

In addition, more than 60 people with flu-like symptoms who had come in close contact with fowl had been hospitalized around the country by Monday and were undergoing tests, officials said.

http://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory?id=1485782

[Odin2005]

22. The 1918 flu had a mortality of, IIRC 2%.

H5N1 is currently 50%, though it will obvious weaken a lot once it starts to spread between humans, you are a better transmitter of the virus if it keeps you alive so natual selection will cause it's mortality rate to go down, But 6% precent mortality would still be a horrible disaster.

[rodeodance]

23. Turkey Now Has 15 Human Cases of Bird Flu (next stop Europe)

http://www.newsday.com/news/health/ats-ap_health10jan09,0,7697686.story?coll=ny-leadhealthnews-headlines

Turkey Now Has 15 Human Cases of Bird Flu

By BENJAMIN HARVEY
Associated Press Writer

January 9, 2006, 12:57 PM EST

DOGUBAYAZIT, Turkey -- Preliminary tests showed five more people in Turkey have been infected with the deadly strain of bird flu that already killed two teenage siblings, officials said Monday as Indonesia and China each reported a new case.

The new results raise the number of human cases in Turkey to 15, although most have not yet been confirmed by the World Health Organization.

However, a WHO official said Turkish patients appear to be catching the disease from infected domestic birds, the normal path of the disease, and not from each other.

But he warned that the chance that bird flu may mutate into a dangerous form transmitted from person to person increases with every new human infection........

[YOY]

24. Oh God...

My inlaws are next door in Bulgaria...and live in an area that has many Turkish Bulgarians who travel to Turkey often for business reasons...

[Fredda Weinberg]

25. But do they live with poultry?

The infection has not yet spread from human 2 human.

[YOY]

26. Yes...

They live in a village and raise their own chickens, turkey, goats, and pigs.

[GoddessOfGuinness]

27. Keeping them in my thoughts...

Do you have contact with them? Please keep us posted...

[YOY]

28. I've Emailed my wife and told her to call them as soon as possible

This warrants being a little freaked out... They need those animals to live so living without them is not a possible option. If we had money we could bring them over here, but I can't seem to catch a break in the job market.

:scared:

[Fredda Weinberg]

29. They can protect themselves

Soap & water after handling the animals and don't touch sick or dead poultry w/bare hands. No health or safety worker has yet been infected.

[gkhouston]

31. Also, be careful when handling the animal droppings, i.e., wouldn't

hurt to tie a scarf around your nose and mouth when sweeping up. A woman in Asia is believed to have been infected after sweeping dried droppings.

[uppityperson]

30. End of backyard flocks is coming. Link problem

Many people living in rural areas of EurAsia have backyard flocks for their own usage (eggs or meat) and this is signalling the end of those.

Your link leads me to a different article.

[MetaTrope]

Dupe

[MetaTrope]

32. An apocalyptic pandemic courtesy of the American Turkish Business Council?

Sibel Edmonds may have read enough to connect Cheney's overseas network with 9/11...but I wonder if there was anything about bird flu in those communications too?

[tavalon]

45. Why would you think that?

[MetaTrope]

48. Just coincidence

Cheney is linked to Turkey in my mind the way Bush is linked to the bin Ladens.

[tavalon]

33. I've been monitoring this closely

and overall, I had convinced myself that this was really not different than what has been happening in Asia.

That said, I ran across a number of articles like this one:

Bird flu transmission to humans may be frequent: study

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/english/doc/2006-01/10/content_511005.htm

Great news, huh!?

No, it isn't. It's very, very bad news and the WHO better stop fucking around and do massive blood testing for this virus like now. I can't believe they haven't done it yet. They keep touting how they're on top of things and yadda, yadda, yadda. Each and every time a person gets infected with this virus, especially if they have the normal winter variant of the flu as millions do right now, there is a possibility that these two flues can get together and swap RNA packets. The more cases, diagnosed or not, the more chance for the necessary antigenic shift.

I don't know how long they've had the ability to screen this virus through blood testing but they should have been doing massive screening in Vietnam, Laos, hell, even China. Day late and a dollar short, guys.

If they've blown this part of their "worldwide screening", I wonder how much we can really trust them to get the rest of it right?

:banghead: :rant: :banghead:

[SaveElmer]

49. Certainly not bad news...

If you make the assumption that this flu was going to turn into a pandemic...Certainly it is better to have it less lethal....

If this level of infection is accuarate...and remember they only looked at VietNam...include China, Laos, Indonesia etc in the study and the mortality could be even less...then this flu virus may not be any more lethal than any other variety. There have been 175 people in Asia hospitalized in an area where half the world's population lives.

If you simply looked at the normal yearly flu bug through the lens of those hospitalized, every year would look like a pandemic.

Evey flu virus mutates, that is how it evolves, but this one has been in the wild since at least 1998, infecting larger numbers of humans than previously thought, and it still has not mutated into an easily transmitted H-H form, which bolsters the views of some experts I have seen who say it may not be able to make that jump.

Having said all of that, it is still necessary to be vigilant, and try and nip this in the bud. Even a normal flu is disruptive, and until a complete sera-survey is done no 100% conclusion can be drawn as to this one. But these numbers are compelling.

[tavalon]

42. I found an interesting site tonight

I caveat that I haven't thoroughly checked it out so mea culpa if it has some stupid shit on it. Basically, it is a website that says what my motto has become. Don't fear, become educated and prepared and it gives some nuts and bolts on how to do that.

http://www.planforflu.com/home

[MadisonProgressive]

46. Stay away from those chickens!