Iraq's micro parties could play key role (CS Monitor)

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Shiites and Kurds look to be the big winners of this month's vote, but tiny parties could emerge as power brokers.

By Ilene R. Prusher | Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor

BAGHDAD - With election results firming gradually and violence returning quickly, Iraqis now face the challenge of forging a multiparty democracy in one of the Middle East's most diverse countries.

What matters now is not just how big the winners win, but how well those with limited success can accept election gains that fall far short of expectations. At the same time, Iraq's strongest emerging power - religious Shiite parties - may have the most difficult challenge of all: making room for minority parties so as to maximize inclusiveness and minimize incentive for refueling the insurgency and Iraqi-on-Iraqi violence.

Indeed, Iraq's first democratically elected four-year parliament promises to be something of a crazy quilt of Middle Eastern politics with approximately 12 parties, seven of which would hold anywhere from one to five seats. With major parties disputing the results of the Dec. 15 vote - Sunnis in particular are dismayed by the number of seats early numbers indicate they will get, as are secular Shiites - minor players could carve out key roles in the coalition-building process. Although many of these are virtual micro parties, some could hold the power to make or break a constellation of political parties trying to form a coalition....
http://www.csmonitor.com/2005/1229/p06s03-woiq.htm

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1. What do I think about this article? Not much.

"People voted for their religious and ethnic leaders this time, but it's too bad, really. The reality is that the Iraqi people are a diverse group," Kana says. "We have to bring back the mentality that we are brothers and we are part of the country."

There was never a mentality that Kurds, Sunnis and Shiites are brothers in Iraq. They were held together by a dictator, and now they will splinter. My prediction is the Kurds (even though they are Sunnis, have no allegiance to those in the south), will make a power grab and break off for independence. The minority Sunnis will rebel against Shiite control. It's already happening; thousands are protesting the election results.