STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday 12 December

[ozymandius]

Monday December 12, 2005

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 3 YEARS, 41 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 1817 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 1516 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1478
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON December 9, 2005

Dow... 10,778.58 +23.46 (+0.22%)
Nasdaq... 2,256.73 +10.27 (+0.46%)
S&P 500... 1,259.37 +3.53 (+0.28%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.54% +0.07 (+1.64%)
Gold future... 530.20 +7.50 (+1.41%)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie


PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Tim W. Wood

THE DOW REPORT
Did Santa Come Early?

The Santa Claus rally began out of the October intermediate term lows and many of the indexes have formed non-confirmations with this latest advance. Those familiar with Dow theory know that it is non-confirmations between the Industrials and the Transports that are among the basic principles of Dow theory and no other averages are considered. The Primary Dow theory non-confirmation extending back to 1999, as marked in red on the chart below, still exists today. The Secondary Trend, which turned up in July, remains bullish. However, the Secondary non-confirmation, as noted in blue below, also remains intact. Therefore, at this time, we have two non-confirmations, at two different levels, still in place today. According to Robert Rhea, when the averages are not in agreement, they are shouting “be careful.”



-cut-

Confirmations and non-confirmations between the Industrials and the Retailers is also important to watch. With us now in the Christmas shopping season, I have been reporting on this index and will continue to do so throughout the remainder of this year. As reported in previous reports and as shown in the chart below, non-confirmations between these indexes are also very important. Thus far, this shopping season has not been sufficient enough for the Retailers to better their summer highs. As a result, we still currently have an intermediate term non-confirmation in place between the Industrials and the Retailers. In the past such non-confirmations have resulted in declines of at least intermediate degree.

more...

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[Dogmudgeon]

4. No hablo Dow ...

... but I do look at the base of the the chart, the horizontal axis.

The market has been stagnant; only in the last two years has any significant movement occurred, and that has been weak, as well.

I can't say that it means that a super-depression in imminent, but it's not a very good sign in a world economy that has demanded a better-than-2.5% annual growth rate just to avoid financial recession.

Am I Right? Am I Wrong? Am I a not-so-Motley Fool, or what?

--p!

[ozymandius]

9. We have been flying by the seat of our pants for awhile.

The Santa Claus rally has been a huge crutch for the indeces going on five years now. Before then - no need for a Santa Claus rally because markets were doing okay.

Factor inflation, and we have lost ground on our fiscal health during this time period. I do not think it is worthwhile to predict a huge recession or depression. Though there are reasons to be concerned about some kind of tipping point.

[AnneD]

20. Morning Marketeers,

:donut: (No Dunkin Donuts were used in this post). I saw a few more folks out this weekend. However, the carts and bags were light. I can't wait to see the reports today. If sales are poor-I guess the weather will be blamed.
Ozy, I think our fiscal health earlier-say the time that the surplus began to dwindle. And come this Jan, a boomer will turn 60 every 17 minutes. It doesn't take much in the way of math skills to see where this economy is going. I am so pissed. I never objected to the increases in SS deduction because I knew and appreciated the system. And now, just when we will need to draw on it, we run the risk of bankrupting a system that should have been contained and self sustaining. Oh well, I guess I should be grateful that I don't have to pay capital gains on my retirement based stock based portfolio.:rofl:
Happy Hunting, and watch out for the bears.

[54anickel]

2. Morning Ozy. Gee, whazzup with gold this morning?

Buck's down a bit, but $11 worth for gold?

[ozymandius]

6. That surprised me too.

I had become used to the dollar/gold seesaw. But that is strangely out of sorts. I wonder if this portends volatility in the Forex markets today. :shrug:

[JNelson6563]

12. Gold. Shiny, pretty gold.

Word is that Asia was big on gold this last session. There's something to keep an eye on.

Julie

[UpInArms]

19. Gold futures climb past $540 to trade close to a 25-yr high ($541.30)

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38698.4069135764-854151535&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- February gold climbed as high as $541.30 an ounce in morning dealings to trade at a level not seen since April 1981. The contract was last at $537.40, up $7.20 an ounce. "Incessant demand for gold from speculators and investors alike continues to swell metal prices with the entire complex pushing on to fresh highs this morning, extending the gains made Friday," James Moore, an analyst at TheBullionDesk.com said in a note to clients.

9:40am 12/12/05 GOLD FUTURES TRADE AS HIGH AS $541.30, HIGHEST SINCE 1981

9:40am 12/12/05 FEB GOLD CLIMBS $6.50 TO $536.70 AFTER $541.30 HIGH IN NY

9:40am 12/12/05 MARCH SILVER UP 15C AT $9.245/OZ AFTER $9.255 HIGH

[54anickel]

40. Heh-heh, check out the Low/High for the day on gold! Big move down.

Looks like someone was getting nervous. ;-)

Low/High 526.40 - 541.70

[54anickel]

41. Chugging Along

http://www.kitco.com/weekly/paulvaneeden/dec122005.html

The gold price is running strong -- that always makes me nervous and I instinctively brace for a correction. That's because markets move higher in fits and starts. While I believe that the gold price is going much, much higher it would be naïve to think that we will get to the top in one long, smooth upward move. I am not predicting that the gold price will correct, but I have already prepared myself psychologically for it to happen so that when it does, I will be neither surprised nor disappointed.

The real estate market has been fueling the US consumer-driven economy for several years, and is now showing signs of petering out. Last week we saw that existing home sales fell, that inventory of houses for sale in the US was at its highest level in 19 years and housing affordability at a 14-year low. This week we learn that pending home sales have declined by 3.2% from September's level.

During the first nine months of the year, investors accounted for almost 10% of all home mortgages. The Wall Street Journal reports that individuals are pulling back from buying homes and condos as investments, and that could accelerate the cooling of the housing market. This phenomenon is recent and is just starting to show up in national data. You can tell when the real estate market is getting silly when individual investors buy houses with little, or no money down, in the belief that they are going to retire rich from the capital appreciation. This highly leveraged real estate speculation fails when mortgage rates rise and rental income no longer covers loan obligations. David Berson, the chief economists of Fannie Mae, reckons that home sales could fall by more than 10% over the next two years, largely because of the decline in investor demand.

We can also see investors heading for the exits when we look at condominium cancellation rates. In San Diego, cancellation rates for new condominiums rose 47% in the third quarter of the year versus the second quarter.

Retiring Federal Reserve Chairman, Alan Greenspan, is worried. He has again warned Congress to restore federal spending caps and cautioned that the federal budget deficit will substantially worsen in coming years unless major deficit-reducing actions are taken. When Clinton was president the US had a budget surplus, not because he was necessarily a great president, but because the economy and the stock market grew so much that capital gains taxes swelled the Treasury coffers. If the real estate market softens up and the economy slows down, then tax receipts will decline and the federal budget deficit will soar.

more...

[54anickel]

3. Huntsman Sr. fears traders manipulating natural gas

http://deseretnews.com/dn/view/0,1249,635167692,00.html

Jon M. Huntsman Sr. is again raising allegations that traders on the New York Mercantile Exchange are manipulating natural gas prices, squeezing American industries and consumers.

Huntsman, founder and chairman of Salt Lake-based Huntsman Corp., said Friday that skyrocketing natural gas prices spell disaster for businesses, farmers and the 55 percent of U.S. consumers who heat their homes with natural gas.

On Friday, natural gas prices for January delivery jumped as much as 3.5 percent, reaching $15.52 per million British thermal units on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest since trading began on NYMEX, according to Bloomberg News.

"The traders and speculators will tell you these ridiculously high prices are simply the result of supply and demand. Nonsense," Huntsman said in a prepared statement. "There is no shortage of natural gas, and demand is no greater than it has been for several years. Further, inventories are at near-record levels."

more...

[WhiteTara]

23. another level of the * co

energy policy...soak 'em till they holler! Then say, oh yeah, here let's let the prices go back down...any excuse will do to raise and lower prices at will.

[ozymandius]

5. pre-open blah blah

8:30AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +4.4. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +6.5. The stock market remains set to start the session higher. Additional items contributing to the early sentiment are Morgan Stanely's upgrade on Dow component United Technologies (UTX), to Overweight from Equal Weight, Google's (GOOG) addition to the Nasdaq, and an early agreement amongst OPEC ministers to hold oil supplies at a 25-year high to hold prices in check.

8:01AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +4.9. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +7.0. Versus fair value, futures trade indicates a higher open for the cash market. While the session's earnings and economic calendars are both uneventful ones, a host of upbeat corporate news has injected some early bullishness. Reports that ConocoPhillips (COP) is near a $30 deal to acquire Burlington Resources (BR) has sent the latter stock soaring, and Viacom's (VIA) purchase of Dreamworks Animation (DWA) adds to a positive M&A front.

[ozymandius]

7. ConocoPhillips eyes Burlington: report

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Oil major ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP - news) is in advanced talks to buy oil and gas producer Burlington Resources Inc. (NYSE:BR - news) for more than $30 billion, the Wall Street Journal online edition reported on Sunday.

Citing people familiar with the matter, the Journal said talks were still fluid and could fall apart, but a deal could be announced this week if the discussions stayed on track.

Houston-based Burlington Resources has a market value of about $28.7 billion, according to Reuters data, and has natural gas assets that are attractive to any buyer.

Spokesmen for both ConocoPhillips and Burlington Resources said the companies do not comment on market rumors.

more...

[ozymandius]

8. Oil Up As OPEC Holds Production Steady

SINGAPORE - Oil prices jumped Monday as OPEC agreed to maintain its present production levels and anticipation grew that energy demand would strengthen as colder weather settled in in the northeastern United States, the world's largest heating oil market.

Explosions at an oil terminal north of London on Sunday also raised supply concerns, but authorities said the blasts will not lead to a shortage.

-cut-

Oil ministers from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries agreed Monday to keep oil spigots open and maintain production at the group's highest-ever levels — at least for now.

The widely expected decision was reached at a ministerial policy and production meeting and was made public by Libyan Oil Minister Fathi Hamed Ben Shatwan. But the group reserved the right to consider cuts in early 2006 should robust demand flag and high prices fall.

more...

[UpInArms]

22. Jan Crude @ $60.25 bbl - Jan NatGas @ $14.86 mln btus

10:01am 12/12/05 JAN CRUDE CLIMBS 86C TO $60.25/BRL IN EARLY NY TRADING

10:01am 12/12/05 JAN NATURAL GAS RISES 55.8C, OR 3.8%, TO $14.86/MLN BTUS

[UpInArms]

10. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 90.47 Change -0.78 (-0.85%)

Running Out of Gas

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/strategy_pieces/trade_or_fade/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=5248&Itemid=39

US economic news for last week was overwhelmingly positive with Consumer Confidence, ISM, GDP and most importantly NFP all printing at or above expectations, yet the dollar rally hit a wall. With market players now accustomed to nothing but good news from the US economy, the greenback will need better and better results to generate further gains. On the surface the dollar bulls argument couldn’t be more clear: US economy is operating on all engines, Fed is going to 5% money and the greenback will continue to rise as higher yields attract more and more portfolio flows.

Looking underneath the hood however, there may be some cause for concern and most of it centers around housing. Irrespective of latest data, the housing market appears to be slowing. Existing Home Sales dropped from 7200K expected to 7090K and although much ballyhoo was made over the fact the New Home Sales jumped 13% from 1200K to 1424, as Barry Ritholtz properly pointed out the margin of error in the data sample was larger (17%) than the actual increase making the whole report highly suspect. Perhaps most trenchant dollar bear argument was made by a reader of Jack Crooks Black Swan newsletter who noted: “If I am correct, the average Joe is going to get so beaten up this winter by enormous heating bills, higher minimum credit card payments, and, in some cases, higher adjusted mortgage payments. Even Merrill Lynch sees it: They estimated that the first two of the three I listed might add as much as $700 to the monthly budget. Nobody earning $53K per year can absorb $700 per month without suffering a dire personal recession. Multiply that times 100 million households and you've got a mess. My prediction: Spring seasonal housing market opens and the buyers are no shows. Game over.” The currency market may be thinking the same thing.

...more...

Looks like there's going to be some shifting going on - is everyone preparing for the January 1 yuan change?

I won't be around long this morning, so have a great day everyone!

[54anickel]

15. U.S. Foreign Money Addiction Means Trouble

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/051210/wall_main.html?.v=2

snip>

Over half the national debt is now financed by foreigners, according to Roger Ibbotson, chairman of the financial consulting firm Ibbotson Associates in Chicago and a professor at Yale School of Management. That's been true since 1980, but the difference now, he says, "is the scale of the game."

"I guess everyone wants to keep this game going," Ibbotson said. But if one of the countries we're most dependent on drops out, it could be "like a bank run."

David Wyss, chief economist at Standard & Poor's, is also concerned. "If this money stopped coming, the dollar would take a dive and U.S. bond yields would have to come up. That would constrain capital spending and housing and slow down the U.S. economy."

snip>

The gush of foreign money "is critical to keeping the U.S. dollar from collapsing, because we have a large trade deficit," said Daniel Katzive, foreign exchange strategist at UBS. "If the deficit wasn't financed, the dollar would fall until it reached a level where U.S. assets were more attractive to foreign investors."

It's simple accounting, he said: Cashflow in must equal cashflow out. "If it doesn't, you have a big adjustment until you reach equilibrium."

more...

[wordpix]

33. can someone explain what the U.S. is offering as collateral for $ borrowed

I am thinking that BushCo's push to drill/mine/clearcut/sell off/ national lands has something to do with the borrowing, as in, "We'll pay you off with cheap U.S. natural resources, don't worry."

[54anickel]

35. Nah, those cheap U.S. natural resources are reserved for his

corporatist cronies.

[UpInArms]

21. buck dropping like a rock

Last trade 90.29 Change -0.96 (-1.05%)

Settle 91.25 Settle Time 23:37

Open 91.11 Previous Close 91.25

High 91.51 Low 90.22

Last tick: 2005-12-12 09:20:20 ET
30-min delayed quote.

[54anickel]

36. FOREX-Profit-taking, China comments pushes the dollar lower

http://today.reuters.co.uk/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=usDollarRpt&storyID=URI:urn:newsml:reuters.com:20051212:MTFH97467_2005-12-12_09-58-02_L12423614:1

LONDON, Dec 12 (Reuters) - The dollar lost more half a percent against the euro in early European trade on Monday as investors trimmed holdings of greenback ahead of a Federal Reserve key monetary policy meeting this week.

Comments from an adviser to the Chinese central bank that Beijing is dangerously exposed to the dollar and needs to work with other East Asian economies to slow rate of accumulation also dragged the greenback lower.

Yu Yongding told Market News International that China must reduce accumulating dollar and cut its holdings.

The dollar fell on those comments and triggered automatic stop loss orders around $1.1840, traders said.

"There is some dollar softening this morning as some people are getting jittery ahead of the Fed meeting. It's all positioning as some investors feel the Fed may change its language," said Brussels-based Peter Fontaine, currency strategist at KBC.

more...

[UpInArms]

11. Recession looming, some fear

http://www.kansascity.com/mld/kansascity/13386391.htm

The Federal Reserve is sure to raise interest rates again Tuesday, virtually every Fed watcher agrees. But some observers warn it also might boost the risks of a recession.

Concerned economists point to a key predictor of the last six recessions. They said a few more Fed rate boosts could tip the forecast toward the worst.

“I don’t think they’re there yet, but they’re beginning to flirt with a recession,” said Paul Kasriel, director of economic research at Northern Trust Co. in Chicago.

What Kasriel and others are concerned about is known as an inverted yield curve. When short-term interest rates get nearly as high as long-term rates, flattening the yield curve, economic growth tends to slow. When short rates exceed long rates, inverting the curve, a recession almost always follows.

<snip>

Kasriel also points out that Greenspan failed to foresee the recession in 1991, though the yield curve had inverted in 1990.

...more...

[UpInArms]

13. Today's Report:

http://biz.yahoo.com/c/e.html

Dec 12	2:00 PM	Treasury Budget	Nov	-	-$82.0B	-$61.0B	-$57.9B	-

[UpInArms]

43. Federal deficit record for a November -$83.1 Billion

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/print_story.asp?print=1&guid={5AD24890-85B5-4D75-9E29-A76AEE8447AB}&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The U.S. federal budget deficit widened as expected to $83.1 billion in November, the largest deficit of any November, the Treasury Department said Monday.

A year ago, the deficit was $57.9 billion.

Earlier, the Congressional Budget Office had estimated the deficit would rise to $82 billion.

In November, receipts rose 3.2% to $138.8 billion, while outlays were up 15.3% to $221.9 billion. Read the full report.

For the first two months of the 2006 fiscal year, the deficit has increased about 13% to $130.2 billion from $115.2 billion at this time last year.

Receipts are up 2.5% year-to-date, while outlays are up 8.3%.

Individual income tax receipts rose by 9.1% year-to-date to $133.6 billion. Corporate income tax payments fell 10.1% to $9.4 billion.

...more...

[UpInArms]

14. pre-opening blather

9:14AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +4.3. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +5.5.

9:00AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +4.9. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +6.0. The equity market's major averages remain poised to open higher. Several new additions to the Nasdaq 100, including Google (GOOG), have lent early upside. Amongst the 12 fresh constituents are Expedia (EXPE), Nvidia (NVDA), Activision (ATVI), Red Hat (RHAT), and Moster Worldwide (MNST). Perhaps underpinning the upbeat trading tone in the U.S. has been bullish overseas trading. Japan's Nikkei 225 gained 2.2% during its most recent session, while China's Hang Seng rose 0.5%.

[UpInArms]

16. Printing Press Report:Fed adds reserves via overnight system repos

check out the rate that which these are selling!

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-12-12T143250Z_01_N12342756_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-FED-OPERATIONS.XML

NEW YORK, Dec 12 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve said on Monday it added temporary reserves to the U.S. banking system through overnight system repurchase agreements.

The benchmark federal funds rate last traded at 4.25 percent, above the Fed's current 4.0 percent target for the overnight lending rate, but anticipating the rate that the Fed is expected to raise the rate to on Tuesday.

Further details of the operation are available at: http://www.ny.frb.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm

Interest rate hikes prior to interest rate hikes?

[UpInArms]

17. How Abramoff Spread the Wealth

[UpInArms]

18. 9:47 EST Happy Happy Joy Joy from La La Land

Dow 10,810.03 +31.45 (+0.29%)
Nasdaq 2,265.85 +9.12 (+0.40%)
S&P 500 1,263.57 +4.20 (+0.33%)
10-Yr Bond 4.521 -0.16 (-0.35%)

NYSE Volume 147,722,000
Nasdaq Volume 170,052,000

9:40AM: As futures trade had foreshadowed, the stock market opened sharply higher. Expectations that the Fed's policy statement, scheduled for tomorrow, will suggest that the end of the current tightening cycle is near has infused a bullish air today. While we believe that a wording change is likely, whether or not the Fed will stop raising rates will depend on inflation data. An early round of positive corporate data has helped to further stir buying efforts. ConocoPhillips (COP) is near a $30 billion deal to acquire Burlington Resources (BR); Wal-Mart (WMT) reaffirmed December same-store sales guidance of +2-4%, reflecting solid holiday spending; Ford has reached a healthcare deal with the UAW; and Google (GOOG), along with 11 other issues, has been added to the Nasdaq 100.

9:30AM: Correction: In our 8:01 comment, we mistakenly reported Viacom will be acquiring Dreamworks Animation. The company will be acquiring Dreamworks SKG. We have edited the prior comment to account for the correct news.

[54anickel]

24. Markets grow wary about earnings guidance

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ft/20051211/bs_ft/fto121120051600310279

The rules of Wall Street's earnings game have changed. And if chief executives in the US have anything to do with it, they will change much more.

During the bull market of the late 1990s, the practice of earnings "guidance" from companies, and the setting of expectations by Wall Street analysts, had a predictable pattern.

Analysts would set their forecasts and slowly reduce them over time, as the company guided them lower. Then the company would beat those expectations, generating positive publicity and a rise in the share price on the day they announced.

That pattern has now broken down. At the turn of the decade, companiessuddenly started drastically under-performing expectations, in the middle of accounting scandals and the end of the internet boom. Now earnings and forecasts are rising strongly, but the market is not responding.

Earnings for companies in the S&P 500 index rose 12 per cent in the third quarter of this year, and expectations for next year are being increased sharply.

more...

[54anickel]

25. China Overtakes U.S. as Supplier of Information Technology Goods

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/12/11/business/worldbusiness/11cnd-hitech.html

BEIJING, Dec. 11 - After almost a decade of explosive growth in its electronics sector, China has overtaken the United States as the world's biggest supplier of information technology goods, according to a report by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

Data in the report, to be published on Monday, show that China's exports of information and communication technology - including laptop computers, mobile phones and digital cameras - increased by more than 46 percent to $180 billion in 2004 from a year earlier, easily outstripping for the first time United States exports of $149 billion, which grew 12 percent from 2003.

The figures compiled by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, based in Paris, also reveal that China has come close to matching the United States in the overall value of its trade in information and communications technology products. The value of China's combined exports and imports of such goods soared to $329 billion in 2004 from $35 billion in 1996. Over the same period, the value of American information technology trade expanded at a slower rate, to $375 billion from $230 billion.

To some industry experts, the report is more evidence that China has made progress in its long-term plan to upgrade the capacity of its manufacturing as it strives to become a major economic power.

snip>

And foreign companies are increasing their research and development in China in a bid to generate real innovation. "Ten years ago, it was done just to please the Chinese, but now these R.&D. facilities are integral to their global manufacturing," said Mr. Kobler, the consultant.

Whoosh

more...

[ramapo]

34. Amazing

It wasn't easy but we did it....a bit mind-boggling to remember the early '90s when there were computer manufacturing plants throughout the U.S.
Lots of good jobs too...well Wal-Mart had to get its supply of workers somewhere.

[54anickel]

38. Yep, I had one of them "good jobs". Seems so long ago now...eom

[JNelson6563]

26. High Noon Update

12:01 Actually. ;-)

Dow 10,785.06 +6.48 (+0.06%)
Nasdaq 2,263.11 +6.38 (+0.28%)
S&P 500 1,260.95 +1.58 (+0.13%)
10-Yr Bond 4.535% -0.00

Geez, at market's open they came outta the gate guns a'blazin'! What happened? :shrug:

Julie

[Paulie]

27. * gave a speech

Guess the market just flushed.

[JNelson6563]

28. Ah, the pie-hole effect

That explains it. Thanks. :toast:

[Dissenting_Prole]

29. Can someone explain the drop in silver?

How can silver climb from $8.75 an ounce to $9.20 in a matter of days, and then drop back to $8.75 in one hour. Who is selling silver at $8.75 an ounce?

Note that, at the same time, gold is still selling for $527 an ounce.

Is this a sign of manipulation?

[Tace]

30. I Sure Dunno -- But Gold Bugs Expect Gold To Test Support @$500

Before moving to $600. Silver's supposed to perform even better than gold.

I would guess that silver's shaking out weak longs before a move higher.

[ret5hd]

31. i'm expecting it to go as low as $470 or so...

in fact i'm waiting on it...i view it as a last chance to stock up.

[Dissenting_Prole]

32. I'm not totally surprised by the drop.

As a matter of fact, I told my wife this morning that I expected gold to drop back to $500 before shooting up to $550 in a couple of weeks.

I did expect silver to experience a similar decline, but not so quickly, expecially when other metals were holding.

I'm new to this game, since buying physical silver back in early September, so perhaps my inexperience is evident.

[54anickel]

37. The World is Simple

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/bonner/bonner121205.html

The Daily Reckoning PRESENTS: Bill often mentions that he makes a point to read Thomas Friedman's NY Times column - not because agrees with the imperial columnist's musings... but because he finds that that Friedman's "hollow thoughts" always seem to brighten his day with their absurdity...

The force of a correction is equal and opposite to the deception and delusion that preceded it. Alan Greenspan, George W. Bush, and all the great nabobs of positivism assure us that there is nothing to fear. Our favorite imperial columnist, Thomas L. Friedman of the New York Times, explained that "the next big thing almost always comes out of America . . . . . . America allows you to explore your own mind."

Friedman believes the world would be a better place if America were more aggressive about "empowering women" and "building democracies." He also thinks that technical innovations give America a permanent advantage. Americans are always innovating, always figuring things out. Heck, we even invented outsourcing, says Friedman:

"This is America's real edge. Sure Bangalore has a lot of engineering schools, but the local government is rife with corruption; half the city has no sidewalks; there are constant electricity blackouts; the rivers are choked with pollution; the public school system is dysfunctional; beggars dart in and out of the traffic . . . and so forth.

Among the things Mr. Friedman seems to lack is a feeling for verb tenses. He goes to Bangalore and notices that it is backward. His conclusion is that it will always be so. "Is" is forever in Friedman's mind. "Will be" has no place. It is as if he looked at the stock market in 1982. "Stocks are cheap," he might have said. "Stocks elsewhere are expensive," he might have added, without it ever occurring to him that they might change places. And yet, why else would anyone outsource work from Baltimore to Bangalore unless Bangalore was relatively, though not necessarily permanently, cheaper? Let us imagine that Bangalore had no electricity blackouts or pollution or beggars. Let us imagine that it was like Beverly Hills or Boca Raton. We might just as well imagine that stocks were expensive in 1982. Of course, if they had been, there never would have been the bull market of 1982 to 2000. It is only because they were cheap in the past that they had the potential to be expensive in the future. And it is only because Bangalore is a Third World hellhole that it is cheap enough to take work away from overpaid Americans 10,000 miles away. Whether it will, neither Friedman nor we can know.

more...

[54anickel]

39. Real Estate Pyramids

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2005/12/real-estate-pyramids.html

Sfgate.com tells how a couple Buys, Borrows, Buys with leverage to build an empire of eight vacation properties.

In the three years since Sacco and McCook put their faith in real estate, the couple have embarked on what might conservatively be called an E-ticket ride, pulling equity from appreciating properties to provide down payments for the next investment. They have bought eight vacation properties - four homes in Florida, three in California and 100 raw acres on top of a mountain in Lake County.

They move from home to home, depending on which one needs work, which one isn't occupied by vacation renters and where they are shopping for the next property.

snip>

Sacco estimates that along with McCook's mother, who has been a silent partner, they've made $1.3 million since they began their buying spree, but all of this is still in equity on their properties. Their monthly reality is more sobering. They have $2.3 million in mortgage debt and negative cash flow that ranges from $5,000 to $15,000 monthly depending on the season.

So how do they pay the bills?

"We sort of count our equity loans as our income," she says, with the slightest wince. "If we had real jobs, we'd be fine, but we just need to get some money in. Some people call it a pyramid, but I don't like to think about it that way."

more...

[54anickel]

42. I'll catch the close for historical purposes - slow day all around, even

the blather's been on the short side.

Dow 10,767.77 -10.81 (-0.10%)
Nasdaq 2,260.95 +4.22 (+0.19%)
S&P 500 1,260.43 +1.06 (+0.08%)
10-Yr Bond 4.547% +0.01
NYSE Volume 1,897,380,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,703,554,000

Close Dow -10.81 at 10767.77, S&P +1.06 at 1260.43, Nasdaq +4.22 at 2260.95: The market's major averages ceded opening gains mid-day, but recovered from session lows and closed around the flat line. The Dow was unable to join its counterparts on gaining ground, however, largely due to Merck's (MRK 28.41 -0.72) plunge following a mistrial in its latest Vioxx case. A round of upbeat corporate news, along with OPEC's decision to keep oil production at a 25-year high, sent the indices higher in early trading, but investors' cautious stance ahead of what is expected to be the Fed's 13th consecutive rate hike and jitters over its accompanying policy statement kept buying action in check. Alongside a 3.2% surge in the price of crude, and on account of merger activity, the Energy sector (+1.0%) led the session. Oil and gas exploration was the sector's best-performing industry, with Burlington Resources (BR 82.45 +6.36) serving as the muscle behind the advance. Reports that ConocoPhillips (COP 61.16 -1.91) is nearing a $30 billion acquisition of the company sent BR shares soaring, and reflected the recurring theme of consolidation within the sector. Despite the energy price uptick, Consumer Discretionary maintained positive footing throughout the day. Retailers were an especial bright spot, benefiting from Wal-Mart's (WMT 48.68 +0.60) reassuring reaffirmation of 2-4% same-store sales growth for December, which evidences solid holiday spending. Separately, Viacom (VIA-B 34.65 +0.24) lent further upside after announcing its bid for DreamWorks SKG that trumped General Electric's (GE 35.54 +0.01). The Consumer Staples sector (+0.2%), boosted by WMT, also closed higher. Technology wavered, but ultimately closed 0.2% higher on account of rising semiconductors and relative strength in Apple (AAPL 74.91 +0.58) following CSFB's raised price target and increased Q1 estimates. The Nasdaq outperformed the blue chip averages over the course of trading, further benefiting from rises in newly-added issues that include GOOG, EXPE, NVDA, ATVI, DISCA, and MNST. Healthcare also vacillated today, as MRK and relative weakness in HMOs challenged follow-through buying interest in Eli Lily (LLY 54.43 +1.02). Late-day recoveries in several pharmaceutical bellwethers helped pull the sector to the flat line, a move that contributed to the broader market's rise. Of the three declining sectors, Financial (-0.3%) weighed heaviest. While the sector also managed to somewhat pare its intra-day loss, its submerged state effectively capped the indices' advances. Selling pressure was broad-based, but banks served as particular sore spot and overshadowed strength in brokers. The Treasury market's negative stance served as a bearish backdrop for that sector, and the broader market, again today. Traders pushed the benchmark 10-year note (-07/32) to a 4.55% yield ahead of what is expected to be the Fed's 25 basis point increase in the Fed funds rate, to 4.25%, tomorrow. With respect to the accompanying policy statement, many participants anticipate a modification in language that may suggest an end to the current tightening cycle is near. We believe such a change is possible, but that it only provides the Fed an opportunity to cease raising rates. Inflation data will be the deciding factor; the CPI report, a well-followed inflation gauge, holds particular significance. The market awaits the November CPI data, which is due out on Thursday.NYSE Adv/Dec 1754/1552, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1517/1550

3:25PM : At its best level of the afternoon, the Dow approaches positive turf as the closing bell draws near. Intel (INTC 26.69 +0.61) continues to lead the blue chip average, but respectable gains in Wal-Mart (WMT 48.71+0.63), Exxon Mobil (XOM 59.02 +0.52), Home Depot (HD 41.42 +0.40), Honeywell (HON 36.01 +0.30), and Boeing (BA 70.07 +0.42) help to further lift the Dow. The strongest challenger of those gains remains Merck (MRK 28.36 -0.77), which leads the lagging majority. NYSE Adv/Dec 1693/1603, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1450/1600

3:00PM : Mixed footing amid the major indices persists -- all three have risen, but the Dow has not managed to clear the unchanged mark. The Treasury market, meanwhile, remains submerged. Trading volume has been relatively light, though, as many participants hold a cautionary stance ahead of tomorrow's anticipated 25 basis point rate hike, the accompanying policy statement that may feature a wording change, and the remainder of the week's economic data. The November retail sales report will be delivered tomorrow, followed by the latest trade balance on Wednesday. On Thursday's docket, the November CPI report sits center stage, as it's an inflation gauge that will factor into the Fed's future rate decisions. NYSE Adv/Dec 1667/1611, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1446/1574

[loudsue]

44. Thanks, 54anickel!!! I always check back at the end of the day,

and it would have been just plain WRONG not to have the closing #'s on the SMW thread!

:yourock:


:kick:

[stop the bleeding]

45. I have a question.

Does anyone know where I could start learning about options and all of the variations that come with them. I just want answers to sources for good information ie: blogs, sites, schools ect... I have been doing some checking around for some info and have been overwhelmed by what I have found so far, I would like to have a viable source of information that will be honest and reliable.

Thank you for the help.

[mmonk]

46. Might I suggest

"Keys To Investing In Options And Futures" by Nick Apostolou, CPA,DBA and Barbara Apostolou, CPA, PhD published by Barrons. You can buy a copy at your bookstore for around $8.00. Covers all you need to know about option contracts in a quick easy reading style. Also, brokerage houses will give you a pamphlet, but I recommend purchasing the book.