Iraqis will head to the polls Thursday for a National Assembly election that could offer a last chance to move a country that's rife with sectarian division and violence toward reconciliation and stability. If all works well, the elections might pave the way toward starting an orderly withdrawal of U.S. troops. Yet the election just as easily could produce a stalemate that drives Iraq's warring ethnic groups farther apart and pushes the nation toward outright civil war and disintegration.
In this election, Sunnis, 20 percent of the population, are expected to vote in greater numbers than before and take many more seats than the 17 they won last time. Many of those new Sunni seats will come at the expense of the United Iraqi Alliance.
"We are all going to be surprised," said Hassan Bazzaz, a professor of political science and international relations at Baghdad University and frequent U.S. adviser. "This situation is so complicated."
Bazzaz said the secularists could become a decisive swing bloc, depending on how many seats they won. Allawi, who won 12 percent of the vote in January, "will do a lot better than before," he said.
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