STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday 18 November

[ozymandius]

Friday November 18, 2005

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 3 YEARS, 65 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 1793 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 1492 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1454
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON November 17, 2005

Dow... 10,720.22 +45.46 (+0.43%)
Nasdaq... 2,220.46 +32.53 (+1.49%)
S&P 500... 1,242.80 +11.59 (+0.94%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.48% -0.07 ((-1.60%)
Gold future... 486.90 +7.80 (+1.60%)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie


PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Mike Hartman

Lackluster Market on Weak Housing Numbers

The markets caught a slew of economic news today with mixed messages depicting both a growing and a slowing economy. Stocks and bonds both got a “soft” bid pushing prices higher, but not with a great deal of conviction. The Dow Industrial Index meandered in a narrow 20 point range for most of the day until buyers came in after the lunch hour pushing the index higher for the last two hours of the session. The NASDAQ moved higher through most of the day with leadership coming from the internet leaders, Yahoo and Google. Treasury notes and bonds were modestly positive throughout the session, but the dollar struggled versus all major currencies.

If we use GM as the poster child for the Dow, it’s easy to see why the large-cap index struggles, while the high-flyers in the NASDAQ continue to shine…for now. Today Google blasted through the $400 mark, a gain of over 300% since they went public back in August last year. The recent advance has moved Google’s market capitalization to $110 billion, bigger than Cisco and ten times more than the failing General Motors! Leadership in the U.S. has clearly changed as our competitiveness in manufacturing is called into question. U.S. corporations selling proprietary intellectual property are performing better than the old brick and mortar manufacturing companies. The worst part of the GM debacle comes from Delphi Corp. with their announcement of Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection last month and now the layoff of a proposed 24,000 workers. One final tidbit on GM: GM’s stock price just hit an 18-year low, while the price of gold has moved to an 18-year high! I expect the trends to continue.

On the economic front, the Federal Reserve said industrial production in the U.S. rose 0.9% following expectations for a gain of 1%. The rise in output followed a 1.5% drop in September due to the twin hurricanes. Wall Street is spinning this as a good report, but the bounce didn’t meet expectations and I would have expected a better rebound from the lack of production in September. In the big picture, manufacturing only makes up about 15% of our economy, and that includes manufacturing of electricity which we consume, rather than durable goods we are able to export.

-cut-

The manufacturing and labor reports are getting a positive spin through the financial media, but they were clearly offset by the weakness in the housing numbers. The Commerce Department said housing starts fell 5.6% to 2.014 million homes annualized. This was the largest decline in starts over the last eight months. Building permits declined an even larger 6.7%, the biggest decline in over five years. The Housing Market Index fell to 60 from 68 in October. The index is considered a “confidence” index for builders as it measures sales and buyer traffic, and is now at its lowest level since May 2003. The economy is very definitely going to lose momentum without the stimulus from a hyper-active housing market.

more...

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[54anickel]

37. Ewww, those last couple of paragraphs....

It looks to me like the near-term bottom is in for the energy complex; especially with regard to natural gas, but it could be another week or so until we see prices move higher. Similarly, I believe gold and silver will move higher over the next few months, but there is a good chance we could see some unusual volatility over the next two or three trading sessions. Looking ahead at the calendar, it is very important to notice the options expiry date for December gold and silver contracts. With the shortened trading week next week due to the Thanksgiving Holiday, December gold and silver options will expire on Tuesday November 22. Investors have been buying the December calls throughout the year, and there is a MOUNTAIN of call options out there. Between the strike prices of $440 and $490 there are 49,750 call options. Each option represents 100 ounces of gold, therefore after rounding, there is well in excess of FIVE MILLION ounces of gold on option for the December contract. The $450 strike price alone has 10,510 calls against it. At $470, $475, and $480 there are approximately 6,000 calls at each strike price. In the next few trading days, every five dollars up or down is a very big deal. If the call writers can cram the price down into options expiry next week, they can save themselves many millions of dollars!

I believe energies are ready to move higher as winter arrives, but just like gold and silver, the refined oil products have options expiry on Wednesday, November 23rd. After the precious metals and energy options expire, I don’t believe there will be as much pressure to hold the prices down. We shall see who has the upper hand (the longs or the shorts) going into expiration. In either case, be on guard for added volatility in gold, silver and energy products over the next three trading days before we break for the Thanksgiving Holiday. Then, buckle your seatbelts as the market makers work to close-out the year and prepare for financial storms to hit our shores in 2006!

[ozymandius]

2. Freddie Mac Hires Bitsberger As Treasurer

WASHINGTON - Freddie Mac added a senior Bush administration official to its executive offices, announcing Thursday that it has tapped former Treasury Assistant Secretary Timothy Bitsberger as its new treasurer.

Bitsberger, who resigned in October from his post as assistant treasury secretary for financial markets at the U.S. Treasury Department, will work under Patti Cook as a senior vice president overseeing Freddie's debt and mortgage-funding programs as well as investor relations.

While assistant Treasury secretary for financial markets from December 2004 until last month, Bitsberger oversaw a period of government debt management that included plans to reintroduce the 30-year Treasury bond after a four-year hiatus, as well as the first improvement in the annual budget deficit since President George W. Bush took office.

more

[ozymandius]

3. Oil hovers near $56, stockpiles weigh

LONDON (Reuters) - Oil held near a four-month low on Friday as investors grew confident that hefty fuel stockpiles would see the world's consumers through cold winter weather.

Unseasonably warm temperatures have allowed refiners in the United States, the world's biggest consumer, to pile up crude and oil products depleted by a savage hurricane season.

And demand for heating oil has been running well below normal levels in recent weeks.

Storage tanks are also brimming in Europe, where gas oil inventories in the trading hub of Rotterdam leapt to a new six-year high.

more

[UpInArms]

32. Dec Crude @ $55.70 bbl - Jan Crude @ $56.70 bbl - Dec NatGas @ $11.39

10:13am 11/18/05 DEC CRUDE FALLS 64C TO $55.70/BRL IN EARLY NY TRADE

10:13am 11/18/05 JAN CRUDE DOWN 45C TO $56.70/BRL AFTER $56.30 LOW

10:13am 11/18/05 DEC NATURAL GAS DROPS 55.2C, OR 4.6%, TO $11.39/MLN BTUS

[54anickel]

45. Oil drops under $56 for first time since June (check out the weather)

Oh yeah, it's going to be just grand with "privatized" weather reporting through AccuWeather. Sheesh, will this end up being used as yet another market manipulator?


http://www.marketwatch.com/news/yhoo/story.asp?source=blq/yhoo&siteid=yhoo&dist=yhoo&guid=%7B77F61385%2DCF26%2D4F1D%2D9D89%2D2F0792B3DF62%7D
snip>

Ignoring the weather

For now, traders shrugged off colder weather sweeping through parts of the United States, remaining fixed on expectations for petroleum and natural-gas inventories instead.

"While colder U.S. weather has been generally supportive, it seems it has not been uniformly cold enough to return the market to a sustainable firmer footing," said Man Financial analyst Edward Meir.

The National Weather Service's most recent six-to-ten day forecast calls for below-normal temperatures in the eastern U.S. but above-normal temperatures in the western U.S.

"Looking further out, forecasts remain varied--AccuWeather says that over the coming winter, the U.S. East Coast will have temperatures that will average 2 degrees Fahrenheit colder than normal, while the U.S. National Weather Service is not that sure, saying that the Northeast has an equal chance of being either colder or warmer this winter," said Meir.

[UpInArms]

71. Dec Crude @ $56.40 bbl (up 6 cents)

2:29pm 11/18/05 DEC CRUDE LITTLE CHANGED NEAR THE CLOSE, UP 6C AT $56.40/BRL

[UpInArms]

73. Dec Crude closes @ $56.14 bbl - Dec NatGas @ $11.414 mln btus

3:07pm 11/18/05 DEC CRUDE CLOSES DOWN 20C AT A 5-MO LOW OF $56.14/BRL

3:07pm 11/18/05 DEC CRUDE POSTS $1.39, OR 2.4%, FALL FOR THE WEEK

2:59pm 11/18/05 DEC NATURAL GAS CLOSES AT $11.414/MLN BTUS, DOWN 4.4% ON DAY

2:59pm 11/18/05 DEC NATURAL GAS FALLS 2.5% FOR THE WEEK

[ozymandius]

4. Big Oil’s performance shows we’re all hostages (editorial)

They feign outrage in front of their outraged constituents, but America’s senators appear to be about the only folks who believe this summer’s gas price spike wasn’t mostly a get-rich quick scheme for the oil industry.

Dragged before Congress this month just as gas prices were starting to tumble under $2 a gallon, the nation’s top oilmen claimed that there’s no connection between falling prices — down from more than $3 a gallon — and their embarrassing record profits and huge bonuses.

Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain, or his wallet, they told the senators; gas prices are falling now because “The Market” says so. Plus, Big Oil’s profits are in line with any other American industry, a logic that frays if you recognize it is entirely unlike any other American industry.

Predictably, the senators bought that petroleum prattle. That’s not surprising for a body that has handed over huge tax breaks to an industry that demonstrably doesn’t need it.

more

[54anickel]

44. Senators to the rescue

http://www.prudentbear.com/randomwalk.asp

Where would we be without the U.S. Senate?

With no superheroes around now that Cardinal slugger Albert Pujols is on vacation, last week a bevy of senators came to the rescue. Braving the media spotlight they swooped in just in time to protect us from the Evil Oil Empire. Are we lucky or what?

These brave men and women left the security of their idling limousines to stand up for the American values of honesty, integrity and a marketplace that is free, more or less, sometimes. Fearing nothing but a dead microphone, our leaders suckered the CEOs of America’s biggest oil companies into their lair by asking them to celebrate a new political season with a fresh round of contributions. But once the oil execs were in the hearing room, the clever senators slammed the door and switched on the cameras.

In hindsight the senators realized they had made a terrible mistake. They had turned on the cameras before the oil men could reach for their checkbooks. There was nothing to do but to proceed. So with the oil executives trapped and confused, our country’s leaders peppered them with questions. Hard questions - like, “Why do oil prices go up when oil supply goes down?” And, “Why don’t gas stations give us free glasses with tigers on them like they did on the ‘70s?”

And so it went with the senators looking out for America’s best interests and oil executives looking at their watches. By the end of the day, the senators could claim victory. After all, just the threat of senatorial wrath had already knocked down gasoline prices from a post-Katrina level of $3 dollars to $2.36.

more...

[ozymandius]

5. Consumer Prices Slowed in October, but Energy Costs Stir Inflation Fears

The consumer inflation rate dropped significantly in October and touched its lowest level since June as surging gasoline prices fell from their peak in September, the government reported yesterday.

But lower prices at the pump, which have receded still more in November, may not be enough to tame inflation in the coming months as heating bills start climbing and businesses pass their higher costs on to customers, some economists said.

The Consumer Price Index rose by 0.2 percent last month, after jumping 1.2 percent in September and 0.5 percent in August, the Labor Department reported. The core index, which excludes food and energy, also rose 0.2 percent in the month, compared with the previous month's 0.1 percent increase.

Compared with October 2004, consumer prices were up 4.3 percent and the core index was up 2.1 percent.

more...

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/17/business/17econ.html

[UpInArms]

6. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 92.30 Change +0.42 (+0.46%)

Dollar Juggernaut Continues To Dominate Majors

http://www.dailyfx.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=4929&Itemid=39

Traders Corner:
Reality or wishful thinking, it’s a very delicate balance when it comes to trading. As a trader I always learned not to let the wishful thinking cloud my judgment. I never let such notions as hopes and dreams distort the reality of the market. At one point when I found myself grasping at straws in a sinking trade I realized that no matter what I think, wish or hope, the market will do what its need to do, the only thing I can do is accept reality of being wrong, close the trade, take a loss and stay out until I can get myself to think rationally. Most traders instantly feel the urge to get their money back from the market and start trading with a vengeance and by doing so make even more mistakes and sink their account deeper into loss. Never let emotions cloud your judgment, never try to instantly make your money back, you will only lose more. The best thing to do is to walk away and try again after clearing your head no matter how long it takes, that what separates professionals from amateurs. Please feel free to email me at [e-mail] with your comments.

...more...

G7 to discuss dollar strength at Dec meeting-source

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-11-18T093948Z_01_L18706100_RTRIDST_0_FINANCIAL-CURRENCY-G7-UPDATE-1.XML

FRANKFURT, Nov 18 (Reuters) - The Group of Seven finance ministers and central banks will assess in December how sustainable the current dollar strength is and whether the impact from high oil prices will be contained, a G7 source said on Friday.

The G7 officials meeting in London next month also think China should move towards a flexible exchange rate regime in the long term, but at this moment there is no pressing argument to pressure Beijing to revalue the yuan given low domestic inflation and dollar strength.

"The dollar is strengthening but it's not a problem in itself and the financial market is absorbing (the change). As long as it is an orderly adjustment, up or down, (there is no problem). The global economy is posting trend growth so FX moves are not having a big impact," the source said.

"We are going to assess how sustainable this dollar strength is and also whether there is a risk of a dollar reversal."

<snip>

The dollar has risen more than 10 percent against the euro this year, due to expectations for steady rises in U.S. interest rates, reversing a sharp fall which pushed the greenback to a record low of $1.3667 per euro in December 2004.

...more...

[54anickel]

30. Wow, what's that big 9:00 drop in the buck all about?

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

High 92.49 Low 91.70

[UpInArms]

31. Trichet hints at rate hike, helps euro

(more than one can play the verbal intervention game)

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B353556D3%2D419B%2D40E8%2D9891%2DFA245F416B6D%7D&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The euro strengthened against the dollar Friday after European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet sent a strong signal that the bank may lift rates in December.

The euro rose to $1.1774, up from $1.1741 earlier Friday before Trichet's remarks. The dollar traded at 118.92 yen, down from 119.25 in early trade.

Trichet said the ECB's governing council is ready to raise rates moderately in December, noting risks to price stability. The ECB has held its benchmark official rate steady at 2% since June 2003.

"The euro, not surprisingly, has led the dollar lower against the major European currencies in the aftermath of Trichet's rate hike comments," said Action Economics.

Prior to Trichet's remarks, the euro was weakened by news that producer prices in Germany, Europe's largest economy, saw their largest increase in six months in October, as energy costs rose, according to Boris Schlossberg, senior currency analyst at Forex Capital Markets.

...more...

[54anickel]

35. Hmmm, 2% (Euro) versus 4% (Buck). Oh yeah, that explains the mad

rush, doesn't it?

No mention of an expanding vs. contracting (into recession) economy in that article is there? Just this tiny sentence at the very end.

The dollar was nudged from two-year highs Thursday after mostly weaker U.S. economic data inspired traders to cash in some of the greenback's lengthy run.

[UpInArms]

58. Trichet signals ECB to raise rates 25 bps December

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-11-18T181229Z_01_L18683321_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-ECB-TRICHET-UPDATE-4.XML

FRANKFURT, Nov 18 (Reuters) - The European Central Bank is ready to raise interest rates moderately, ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said on Friday, sending a clear signal it will tighten rates in December for the first time in five years.

The euro currency and yields on European government debt leapt upward on prospects of a quarter percentage point ECB rate hike to 2.25 percent at its next policy meeting on Dec. 1.

The move would mark a bold ECB stand against political pressure not to hike in a fragile economic recovery. Trichet said the rate increase would still leave interest rates at a low level to support economic growth while keeping inflationary expectations in check.

"The Governing Council is ready to take a decision to move interest rates and to moderately augment the present level of intervention rates in order to take into account the level of risks to price stability that have been identified," Trichet said at a Frankfurt European Banking Congress.

"We will withdraw some of the accommodation, which is in the present monetary stance, while this policy would remain accommodative. This move would aim at coping with the inflationary risk," he said.

...more...

[UpInArms]

7. U.S. House passes $49.9B in spending cuts - up Debt Limit $781 Billion

http://today.reuters.com/PrinterFriendlyPopup.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=uri:2005-11-18T070628Z_01_N18732825_RTRIDST_0_CONGRESS-FUNDING.XML

WASHINGTON, Nov 18 (Reuters) - The U.S. House of Representatives on Friday narrowly voted to trim social programs for the poor along with farm subsidies, student loans and other federal benefits as part of a $49.9-billion package of spending cuts.

The "deficit-reduction" plan passed the House by a cliff-hanger vote of 217-215, with all Democrats and 14 Republicans voting against the Republican-authored bill.

The vote came after House leaders worked for weeks to convince rank-and-file Republican members to support the measure. Many had balked at cutting social programs while their leaders also pursued tax cuts that would benefit the rich. As a result, Republicans shaved about $4 billion from their spending-cut goal.

<snip>

Democrats argued that by the time Congress wraps up its work for the year, Republicans will actually add to the U.S. deficit if they push through about $60 billion in tax cuts.

Rep. John Spratt of South Carolina, the senior Democrat on the House Budget Committee, said: "After the tax cuts are passed, there won't be a dime to pay for (hurricanes) Katrina or Rita." He noted that the Republican budget calls for a $781 billion increase in U.S. borrowing authority.
...more...

[UpInArms]

8. U.S. Senate approves $60 billion tax cut bill

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-11-18T054652Z_01_N18729363_RTRIDST_0_CONGRESS-TAXES.XML

WASHINGTON, Nov 18 (Reuters) - The U.S. Senate approved a $60 billion tax cut bill on Friday that would impose a $5 billion tax on big oil companies and provide new tax breaks to help rebuild hurricane devastated regions.

The package, approved on a vote of 64-33, passed the Senate only after provisions extending reduced tax rates for capital gains and dividends beyond their 2008 expiration were dropped. Democrats and some moderate Republicans put up solid opposition to those provisions.

The overall cost of the legislation was reduced by a number of revenue raising measures, including an accounting provision that would raise about $5 billion from big oil companies by temporarily changing the way they value oil inventories.

Another measure would eliminate a $1 billion tax break for oil and gas exploration that was included in energy legislation President George W. Bush signed into law earlier this year.

But the Senate rejected attempts by some Democrats to include a windfall profits tax on the record earnings of big oil companies and give the proceeds to consumers.

...more...

[UpInArms]

13. $60B Tax-Cut Bill Faces Bush Veto Threat over Oil's tax break removal

http://www.guardian.co.uk/worldlatest/story/0,1280,-5423903,00.html

WASHINGTON (AP) - A $60 billion bill the Senate passed to continue expiring tax cuts and shelter 14 million families from higher taxes faces a White House veto threat because it also lincludes a hefty tax increase for oil companies.

The legislation passed by senators early Friday would spare millions of families from paying increased taxes through the alternative minimum tax. Much of the bill, passed 64-33, preserves tax cuts approved in previous years that are set to expire unless lawmakers keep them alive.

But unlike a bill assembled by the House tax writing committee, it does not preserve lower tax rates for capital gains and dividends scheduled to disappear at the end of 2008. Congress lowered the maximum tax rate on that investment income to 15 percent in 2003, and many Republicans want to act this year to keep those rates in place in 2009 and 2010.

It was doubtful whether the House would vote on its bill before leaving for the Thanksgiving holiday. ``It's a possibility that we'll move it if we're ready to move it,'' Speaker Dennis Hastert, R-Ill., said early Friday. ``We'll have to see where the votes are.''

<snip>

The White House wants to see another change in the Senate bill: elimination of a $4.3 billion tax increase on oil companies.

``This provision would result in a retroactive tax increase by changing a long-accepted accounting practice,'' the White House said in a statement warning that senior advisers would recommend that President Bush veto the legislation if it's not removed.

...more...

[UpInArms]

9. H&R Block loss widens, cuts full-year forecast (at its mortgage unit?)

I thought these were tax preparers!

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-11-17T215059Z_01_N17708146_RTRIDST_0_FINANCIAL-HRBLOCK-EARNS-UPDATE-1.XML

CHICAGO, Nov 17 (Reuters) - H&R Block Inc. (HRB.N: Quote, Profile, Research) said on Thursday that its net loss widened more than expected in the most recent quarter, pulled down by a sharp fall in profits at its mortgage unit.

The U.S. tax-preparation company, which also provides home-loan and investment services, also cut its earnings estimate for the full year, blaming the "unsettled market dynamics" in the mortgage industry. The news sent the company's shares lower in after-hours electronic trading.

The pressures on Option One, H&R Block's home-loan unit, overshadowed what Bill Trubeck, the company's chief finance officer, characterized as strong performances at the company's tax and financial advisory units.

"It's all mortgage driven," Trubeck said of the results and the reduced outlook for the whole year. "We're doing what we can."

...more...

[UpInArms]

10. U.S. home builders eyeing deals more seriously

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-11-17T223135Z_01_N17623590_RTRIDST_0_CONSTRUCTION-HOMEBUILDERS.XML

PHILADELPHIA, Nov 17 (Reuters) - Chatter is picking up over mergers between U.S. home builders and buyouts in the industry by private equity firms, sources say, as worries take hold over a slowdown in the housing market.

Home construction executives, many of whom own controlling stakes in their companies, frequently hold informal talks and make casual passes at buying their rivals, banking sources say. But with their stocks trading at low valuations and the housing market apparently entering a slowdown after a five-year boom, sources say those talks may be turning serious.

The U.S. home building sector is fragmented, with companies like D.R. Horton Inc. (DHI.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and Pulte Homes Inc. (PHM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) focusing on size and geographic diversity to insulate themselves from market fluctuations while others specialize in luxury homes, like Toll Brothers (TOL.N: Quote, Profile, Research), or in other niches in certain geographic regions.

Building up a business that stretches across the United States doesn't help a construction company as much as it helps many other kinds of businesses, because home builders buy many of their materials from regional suppliers and generate business based on their connections to local communities.

...more...

[UpInArms]

11. Duke Energy paying $700M to move derivatives biz to Barclays

A changing of bookies?

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38674.3298626157-851246283&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Duke Energy Corp. (DUK) on Friday said it'll transfer all of Duke Energy North America's portfolio of derivatives contracts to Barclays Capital, the investment banking division of Barclays Bank PLC. Barclays will receive from Duke approximately $700 million in cash which primarily reflects the amount by which the portfolio is below current market value as well as certain transaction costs. Shares rose 41 cents to $26.85 on Thursday.

[UpInArms]

12. GM turnaround plan could come next week - paper (25K jobs/plant closures)

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-11-18T132520Z_01_N1838070_RTRIDST_0_AUTOS-GM.XML

CHICAGO, Nov 18 (Reuters) - General Motors Corp.'s (GM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) restructuring plan could be announced as early as next week and could include a series of plant closures and at least 25,000 job cuts, the Detroit News said on Friday.

Whether the restructuring plan for the troubled automaker will be ready before the Thanksgiving holiday depends on talks with the United Auto Workers union, the paper said, citing individuals familiar with the situation. The job cuts in the hourly work force would be over the next three years, the paper said.

[UpInArms]

29. more info:

http://money.cnn.com/2005/11/18/news/fortune500/gm_closings/

excerpt:

"The large losses at GMNA (GM North America) are unsustainable, for sure, and require a comprehensive strategy to address them ... a strategy that must be implemented promptly and effectively, to get our U.S. business profitable again," Wagoner said in the note.

A GM spokesman would not confirm that an announcement on the plant closing plans is imminent.

"Getting our plant capacity in line is one more key part of our turnaround plan, and ... we will make a detailed announcement before the end of the year," GM spokesman Brian Akre told the newspaper. "It's a critical next step and we are working on it with a sense of urgency."

...more...

[UpInArms]

14. Treasurys dip as traders lock in recent gains

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38674.3586465509-851251941&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Treasury prices fell early Friday, pushing yields higher, as traders used an empty economic calendar as an excuse to lock in recent gains. The benchmark 10-year note was last trading down 3/32 at 100 5/32. Its yield climbed to 4.48% from 4.45% at Thursday's close. Action Economics economists said that with no data to review, traders will likely switch attention to the release next week of FOMC meeting minutes and consider the possibility the Fed may take a pause from its current tightening course.

[UpInArms]

24. US Treasuries sag in profit-taking as stocks rise

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-11-18T144331Z_01_N18303291_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-BONDS.XML

CHICAGO, Nov 18 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury debt prices sagged on Friday, extending a run of low-volume profit-taking seen overnight after a three-day rally.

Given a dearth of fresh economic data, dealers said the main risk to prices was for long liquidation if equities, which opened higher, staged a strong rally and crude oil prices continued to slide.

The 10-year note fell 7/32 in price for a yield of 4.49 percent, up from 4.46 percent on Thursday. A move back above 4.50 percent could trigger a test of 4.53 percent.

Mild October consumer inflation data earlier in the week and worries about possible housing market weakness had combined to push benchmark yields to three-week lows on Thursday.

Even so, signs of strength in the labor market and the factory sector suggested caution for bullish bond traders, some of whom already fear a huge jump in November U.S. payrolls.

...more...

[UpInArms]

25. Printing Press Report:Fed adds reserves via over-the-weekend repos

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-11-18T143329Z_01_N18343251_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-FED-OPERATIONS.XML

NEW YORK, Nov 18 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve said on Friday that it added temporary reserves to the U.S. banking system through over-the-weekend system repurchase agreements.

The benchmark federal funds rate last traded at 4.00 percent, the Fed's target for the overnight lending rate.

Further details of the operations are available at: http://www.ny.frb.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm

[UpInArms]

39. Printing Press Report: Fed says adds reserves via coupon pass

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-11-18T153933Z_01_N1873022_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-FED-COUPONPASS-URGENT.XML

NEW YORK, Nov 18 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve said on Friday it added permanent bank reserves by buying U.S. Treasury coupons maturing between June 15, 2009 and April 15, 2010.

All callable issues were excluded from the purchase.

Details of the coupon pass are available on the New York Fed's web site: http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/permanent.html.

Federal funds were trading at 4.00 percent, matching the central bank's target for the rate.

[UpInArms]

54. US Treasuries grind lower even as stocks fade

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-11-18T173412Z_01_N18404866_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-BONDS-UPDATE-1.XML

CHICAGO, Nov 18 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury debt prices continued to grind lower on Friday, setting back from a three-day surge but wary of recent data showing inflation is moderating and economic growth could slow.

In extremely light trading 10-year notes fell 6/32 in price for a yield of 4.48 percent, up from 4.46 percent on Thursday.

A brief move to 4.51 percent found little traction. The near-term trading range for the benchmark note yield is likely to be 4.42 percent to 4.57 percent.

Some of Friday's weakness came in step with European debt markets after European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet signaled a probable rate hike in December to fend off inflation risks.

December bunds tumbled more than a full point and European rate futures sagged, in turn putting pressure on Eurodollar futures and the short end of the U.S. yield curve.

Early worries about possible asset reallocation into stocks faded as the U.S. equities indices fell back to earth. The Dow Jones industrial average floundered after reaching its highest level since late March.

...more...

[UpInArms]

70. Treasuries succumb to mild late week profit-taking

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-11-18T192523Z_01_N18511372_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-BONDS-UPDATE-2.XML

NEW YORK, Nov 18 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury debt prices slipped on Friday as a lack of economic data gave investors room to book profits after a three-day rally.

The week's gains had pushed yields to their lowest levels in nearly a month, and Friday's dip generated only a modest retracement.

Benchmark 10-year notes were off 4/32 for a yield of 4.48 percent, up from 4.46 percent on Thursday and still near the bottom of a recent range.

Dealers looked for bulls to test 4.42 percent again next week, although data releases would again be thin with the week shortened by the Thanksgiving holiday.

But at current levels, traders wondered how much further the market could climb given expectations for at least two more Federal Reserve interest rate hikes in December and January.

...more...

[UpInArms]

15. Credit Derivatives Led by Too Few Banks, Fitch Says

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000087&sid=ahYEI1EowzEM&refer=top_world_news

Nov. 18 (Bloomberg) -- The $12.4 trillion market for credit derivatives is dominated by too few banks, making it vulnerable to a crisis if one of them fails to pay on contracts that insure creditors from companies defaulting, Fitch Ratings said.

JPMorgan Chase & Co., Deutsche Bank AG, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley are the most frequent traders in a market where the top 10 firms account for more than two-thirds of the debt-insurance contracts bought and sold, Fitch said in its Global Derivatives Survey for 2004 published today.

Investors use so-called credit-default swaps to insure debt payments or bet on credit quality. Demand surged this week for swaps protecting payments by General Motors Corp. on concern the world's largest automaker may use up most of its $19.2 billion in cash reserves in the event of a strike at Delphi Corp., its largest auto-parts supplier. Delphi defaulted on about $2 billion of bonds when it filed for bankruptcy on Oct. 8.

``Risk concentration remains high,'' said Ian Linnell at Fitch in London. ``In the event that there was a major default, for instance General Motors, and then one of the major dealers also defaulted, the market would be in major trouble.''

Credit-default swaps are the fastest growing part of the $270 trillion derivatives market, based on the so-called notional value of the debts that underlie the contracts, according to the Bank for International Settlements. The default swaps market worldwide jumped 60 percent to $10.2 trillion in the first half of 2005, the BIS said in a report yesterday.

...more...

[54anickel]

20. Derivatives dealing hits record levels

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/f974790e-5790-11da-b7ea-00000e25118c.html

The use of privately-traded derivatives reached a record in the first half of this year with the notional amount of outstanding trades worth $270,000bn, the Bank for International Settlements said on Thursday.


Dealing in credit derivatives jumped particularly sharply but there was also strong growth in equity and commodity instruments.

The notional amount represents the value of the underlying assets on which the derivatives are based. Based on market value, which reflects the actual cost of replacing the contracts, the market grew by 16 per cent to $11,000bn.

While many derivatives such as futures are traded on exchanges where activity levels are closely monitored, the more nebulous over-the-counter or OTC world of instruments that are traded directly between counterparties has proved trickier to measure.

The semi-annual report from the BIS reported a striking 60 per cent jump in the amount of credit default swaps (CDS) outstanding to $10,200bn. The instruments are a form of insurance against a company’s default.

The market for them barely existed five years ago but has exploded in the last couple of years as banks and investors such as hedge funds have used the instruments to lay off their risk to particular credit events.

more...

[UpInArms]

16. Default crash seen less sure as markets innovate

Note: This is the "It hasn't happened; therefore it won't" theory.

http://today.reuters.com/PrinterFriendlyPopup.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=uri:2005-11-18T134137Z_01_L1850522_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-EUROPE-DEFAULT.XML

LONDON, Nov 18 (Reuters) - Investors who target companies in difficulty, and who have spent the last year scanning blue skies for clouds, faced their worst fear at a London conference on Thursday and Friday -- that there may be no repeat of the 2002 meltdown.

Market lore has it that a cycle of credit boom followed two to three years later by a wave of defaults is as natural as changes in the seasons.

And after a three-year benign spell, signs abound that a default storm should be brewing -- including record levels of company indebtedness, record junk debt issuance, and deteriorating quality of borrowers.

But nothing is happening.

"Everyone thought this time last year we'd be awash with distressed debt, but it turns out to be more barren than last year," said Simon Mansfield, a managing director at Goldman Sachs who specialises in troubled companies, addressing Euromoney's distressed debt conference in London. And a new and for distress specialists chin-dropping opinion is forming that the next downturn could be more a blip or slow burn than a broad, market crash.

Triggers that burst the 2001 bubble included rising interest rates and the dawning realisation that many dotcom firms were all but worthless.

...more...

I think my theory is more to this tune: Anything that cannot go on forever, probably will not.

[UpInArms]

17. Refco investors feel burned but aren't alone

http://today.reuters.com/business/newsarticle.aspx?type=ousiv&storyID=2005-11-17T164741Z_01_FLE759612_RTRIDST_0_BUSINESSPRO-FINANCIAL-SUMMIT-REFCO-DC.XML

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Refco Inc. (RFXCQ.PK: Quote, Profile, Research) investors who weren't wise in advance to the apparent fraud at the company can take heart, however faint, that they weren't alone.

"To think that an outsider can (detect fraud) when there is a concerted effort by management to hide it, if they're good at covering their tracks, is (unrealistic)," said Tanya Azarchs, a Standard & Poor's financial services analyst and one of several participants at the Reuters Finance Summit to discuss Refco.

Fewer than six weeks after it began to unravel, Refco looks like 2005's Enron or WorldCom, on a smaller scale, amid accusations that the broker's balance sheet was inflated, fooling investors and credit rating agencies into thinking the company was sound.

Refco was the largest independent U.S. commodities broker before it said that its chief executive, Phillip Bennett, hid $430 million of debt.

...more...

[UpInArms]

18. Thomas H. Lee's Buyout Fund Return Reduced to 34% by Refco Loss

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000087&sid=a0hSwuOA0NB0&refer=top_world_news

Nov. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Thomas H. Lee Partners LP's loss from a stake in bankrupt U.S. futures broker Refco Inc. cut the average annual return of its latest fund to 34 percent from 45 percent, said investors who attended the firm's annual meeting.

The buyout firm, led by billionaire Thomas H. Lee, discussed its holdings, including Refco, yesterday with about 200 investors at the Four Seasons Hotel in Boston. Refco filed for bankruptcy last month after former Chief Executive Officer Phillip Bennett allegedly hid $430 million of debt. Lee's firm invested $453 million in Refco in August 2004, making it the New York-based company's biggest shareholder.

``They handled the Refco situation professionally,'' said John Perkins, trustee for the City of Boston's pension fund, which has $27 million invested in three Thomas H. Lee funds. ``We like these guys because of their returns,'' said Perkins, who was at yesterday's meeting.

U.S. buyout and mezzanine funds rose at an average annual rate of 2.9 percent in the five years ended June 30, according to data compiled by the National Venture Capital Association and Thomson Venture Economics. Thomas H. Lee's latest fund was put together in 2001.

...more...

[UpInArms]

19. Man set to hive off derivatives arm after Refco deal

http://news.independent.co.uk/business/news/article327793.ece

Man Group, the hedge funds manager, may decide to hive off its derivatives brokerage next year, after the £188m purchase last week of assets of the bankrupt US firm Refco.

Stanley Fink, Man's chief executive, made it clear a separation of the brokerage arm - which accounts for 15 per cent of the group - was moving up the agenda.

His comments came as the company raised £125m from shareholders to fund the integration of Refco, in a share placing that was several times oversubscribed. Mr Fink said the brokerage arm's future would be re-examined next year after it had won back Refco's lost clients and achieved the £125m cost savings expected.

He said there were few synergies from having a derivatives brokerage within the wider hedge fund management group, and keeping it would depend on persuading the market to give it the premium rating accorded to Refco before it collapsed.

"If we fail to get a re-rating, then we will consider other strategic options," he said. "We have shown over the years, by selling off our agricultural division, that we are willing to sell off businesses, and if it is of benefit to shareholders then we will do it."

...more...

[54anickel]

21. Made in U.S., Shunned in China

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/18/business/worldbusiness/18export.html

GUANGZHOU, China, Nov. 17 - Abby Chan, a 23-year-old advertising copywriter, took a break from shopping for Levi's jeans at a mall here on Wednesday evening and relaxed at a table in a Starbucks restaurant.

Aside from coffee and denim, there were not many American brand products that interested her. She covets Chanel clothing and Louis Vuitton bags, dreams of owning a BMW or Mercedes-Benz someday, and struggles to think of an American brand that appeals to her.

"There are more choices for European brands, more styles, so they are more interesting," she said.

When President Bush arrives in Beijing on Saturday, he is expected to press China to reduce its large and growing trade surplus with the United States, on track to hit a record $200 billion this year.

But for a long list of reasons, American products are struggling these days in the Chinese market, where they have trouble measuring up to European brands and even some Chinese brands.

more...

[ozymandius]

22. pre-open blah blah

9:00AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +3.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +8.0. Stocks are headed for an even higher start...

In addition to support lent by the domestic corporate front, the bullish bias across major international markets has perhaps contributed to today's early tone. Rising 1.5%, Japan's Nikkei hit a five year high in its most recent session while China's Hang Seng also closed higher. In Europe, the German Dax, currently up 1.1%, has reached levels not seen since 2002; France's CAC sports a matching gain, and Britain's FTSE 100 has jumped 1.2%. Separately, declining energy prices further help sentiment this morning.

8:31AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +3.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +7.0. The equity remains poised to open higher this morning. Although today's economic calendar is a blank one, and while the earnings front features just six companies, traders sift through a host of better than expected Q3 results that were reported yesterday evening. Along with Hewlett-Packard (HPQ), Starbucks (SBUX), Nordstrom (JWN), Autodesk (ADSK), Marvell (MRVL), and Walt Disney (DIS) - the last of which is a Briefing.com stock pick for active investors - each exceeded Wall Street's expectations.

[ozymandius]

23. Markets make drive for higher year-end bonuses.

9:41
Dow 10,756.55 +36.33 (+0.34%)
Nasdaq 2,226.60 +6.14 (+0.28%)
S&P 500 1,248.58 +5.78 (+0.47%)
10-Yr Bond 44.96 +0.37 (+0.83%)
NYSE Volume 258,947,000
Nasdaq Volume 238,725,000

[ozymandius]

28. 10 am blather

10:00AM: Holding their places, the indices stand strong as traders continue buying efforts. All but one of the ten economic sectors extend early gains, with General Electric (GE 35.58 +0.92) driving Industrials (+0.9%) to the front-running position. As a side note, Briefing.com maintains an Overweight rating on that sector, within which operating earnings are estimated to grow 21.8% this year. Energy's 0.4% loss is a result of the 0.6% drop in crude futures ($56.00 per barrel), but at this point its decline does little to offset broad-based gains. Today's early action is an extension of the momentum that has taken the indices higher by an average 4.9% over the last three weeks. The trend is in-line with Briefing.com's expectation for a traditional year-end rally, and our anticipation of a 5% gain in the S&P 500.NYSE Adv/Dec 1706/811, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1618/811

9:40AM: As expected, stocks started the session well above the flat line. Bullish bias abounds following a heavy dose of good news on the corporate front. General Electric (GE) raised its FY06 earnings outlook while upping its quarterly divided and expanding its share buyback plan; the company also announced a $6.8 billion sale of its insurance unit. After surpassing analysts' expectations for fiscal Q4 earnings by a nickel and raising its guidance for the current quarter and full year, Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) shares are on the rise. Also within the Tech sector, Cisco (CSCO) confirmed its $6.9 billion acquisition of Scientific Atlanta (SFA) - one of Briefing.com's suggested holding for active investors. While today's economic calendar is blank and the earnings calendar is light, investors are digesting last night's round of upside reports - delivered from companies including Starbucks (SBUX),...

[54anickel]

26. Patriot Act II: Meet the New Boss, Same as the Old Boss

http://www.eweek.com/article2/0,1895,1888605,00.asp

snip>

The process is reminiscent of the method by which the original Patriot Act was passed in 2001. During lengthy committee debate in the House back then, minority members fought strenuously for numerous safeguards for civil rights in view of the government's expanded surveillance powers, and they succeeded in inserting several. However, the committee's work was dismissed summarily by congressional leaders and replaced by a version of the legislation backed by the Administration. The leadership's bill was rapidly brought for a vote on the floor before some members had time to even read it.

This time around, it was the Senate that fought for the Bill of Rights, unanimously voting earlier this fall to restore some checks and balances to the FBI's powers to demand the personal records of ordinary Americans from a wide variety of businesses. The House approved a bill much more to the Administration's liking, and this week conferees from both chambers met to iron out the differences. The end product, as it stands today, guts the Senate's safeguards.

Only the conferees know what took place in their closed sessions, but civil rights advocates warn that Congress is poised to repeat the mistakes made four years ago.

"It's very similar to the process in 2001," said Bob Barr, former Republican representative from Georgia. "We believe it's a very inappropriate and dangerous game to play. Politics seems to be driving this whole game. The Senate worked long and hard to fashion a compromise."

snip>

For American businesses that face rising costs in complying with an exploding volume of FBI surveillance orders since the passage of the USA Patriot Act, the secretive bout of law-crafting adds to the defenselessness that they endure under the act. Manufacturers, banks, real estate firms, bookstores and other businesses banded together to press for checks and balances to the FBI's powers, but that effort appeared to be no match for the administration's determination to further bolster those powers.

more...

[UpInArms]

27. Hewlett-Packard Announces More Layoffs As Q3 Profits Rise

http://www.allheadlinenews.com/articles/7001081356

New York, New York (AHN) - Hewlett-Packard (HP) is reporting another round of job cuts, Thursday, despite seeing a rise in third quarter earnings.

Net earnings for the period ending October 31, were $416 million, with sales increasing to $22.9 billion from $21.4 billion, a year ago. However, the company still wants to cut an additional 800 jobs, adding on to the 14,500 jobs announced in July.

The technology giant earned 51 cents a share, up from an analyst prediction of 46 cents.

HP has already spent $1.57 billion in retirement and severance packages for 15,300 employees who will be leaving the company in the next 15 months, says CEO Mark Hurd.

Hurd says, "On July 19, we had a model. As we discussed then, we had to operationalize the model, and 14,500 moved to 15,300. It was our best view at the time."

...more...

[UpInArms]

33. Natural Gas Prices Causing Layoffs and Shutdowns in U.S. Manufacturing Sec

Natural Gas Prices Causing Layoffs and Shutdowns in U.S. Manufacturing Sector

http://www.nam.org/s_nam/doc1.asp?CID=14&DID=235711&rcss=print

WASHINGTON, November 17, 2005—High natural gas prices are beginning to cause significant job losses, salary freezes and lost market share for U.S. manufacturers, according to the results of a national survey released today by the National Association of Manufacturers (NAM).

Nearly 45 percent of those surveyed said they will be forced to lay off workers or impose wage freezes or reductions. About 22 percent of respondents said their companies would cut health care or benefits in an attempt to keep up with energy costs.

“This is a crisis. It’s the worst I’ve seen since we started this company 45 years ago,” said Virginia Ferrell, President of Capital Engineering and Manufacturing Co., with 85 employees in Chicago. “I don’t think people recognize that this shortage of energy is new to the United States. It’s a seismic market disruption. Meanwhile, our competitors are increasing their energy supplies.”

Ferrell said her company would impose job cuts, wage freezes, benefit cuts, and move to a four-day work week to survive energy costs that have doubled. “This is serious enough to put us out of business,” she said.

<snip>

“The results of this survey should set off alarms in Congress — high energy prices pose an immediate threat to the U.S. economy,” said NAM President and former Michigan governor John Engler. “It is time to increase energy supply and infrastructure, starting with developing our vast resources in Alaska and the Outer Continental Shelf (OCS).”

...more...

[54anickel]

34. The History of Money

http://www.kitco.com/weekly/paulvaneeden/nov182005.html

Before Alan Greenspan retires I thought it might be worthwhile hearing what he thinks of money. Three years ago he gave a speech at the opening of an American Numismatic Society exhibition that I found on the Federal Reserve Bank website(1).

Greenspan reminds us, in no uncertain terms, that a monetary system based on fiat money amounts to no more than a confidence game. The value of fiat money is determined solely by our confidence in the issuers of that money or, more specifically, on how well the supply of fiat money is managed. If too much money is created the public will lose confidence in its purchasing power and the perceived value of the money can collapse. Remember, fiat money has no intrinsic value; it only has perceived value.

After you have read Greenspan’s speech, read the excerpts from a speech that Ben Bernanke made later that same year, and remember, he is going to be the next Federal Reserve Chairman.

The History of Money (1)
by Alan Greenspan

snip>

The reason I think his speech is important is that the Federal Reserve had to take extreme measures in the aftermath of the tech bubble which, in the big scheme of things, was not all that big. To prevent a slowdown the Fed dropped the Federal Funds Rate from 6.5% to 1% in just three years and in doing so created a real estate bubble that dwarfs the tech bubble in every imaginable way.

As I mentioned last week, I think the US real estate market is ready to roll over and if it does the Federal Reserve will not have 5.5 percentage points by which to lower the Federal Funds Rate. The Effective Federal Funds rate is currently at 4%, and that brings us to Ben Bernanke’s speech. What will Ben Bernanke do to prevent a slowdown in the US economy when the real estate market finally cools down?

more...

[UpInArms]

36. "no recession in sight" says the blind man

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-11-18T153018Z_01_NAT001887_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-ECRI-WEEKLY-URGENT.XML

NEW YORK, Nov 18 (Reuters) - A leading gauge of the U.S. economy rose in the latest week due to stronger housing activity, higher commodity prices and lower jobless claims, a report said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, an independent forecasting group, said its weekly leading index edged up to 135.8 in the week ended Nov. 11, compared with a downwardly revised 134.7 in the previous week.

The growth rate was revised down and remains flat at 1.5 percent. Last week the growth rate was originally pegged at 2.1 percent.

"With the weekly leading index growth drifting down since August, economic growth in the United States is likely to moderate in coming months. But there is no recession in sight," said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director at ECRI.

How do they spin this to say the growth rate is up? :crazy:

[54anickel]

43. Heh-heh, weren't they all spouting a couple of weeks ago that it may

"look and feel like a recession, but it's not going to be a real recession", or some such drivel. :eyes:

Nothing to worry about here folks, just a pseudo-recession. It will all pass over by the second quarter and we're all gonna be RICH beyond our wildest dreams!!!

I've asked for a new wheelbarrow and rake for Christmas this year. Chopper Ben's gonna leave a mess in my yard, but it'll will come in handy when I head to the market to buy a stinkin' loaf of bread.

[54anickel]

68. Dangers of a runaway mortgage market

http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/P133934.asp?Printer

The long-awaited slowdown in the U.S. housing market is upon us. So far the deceleration is a long way from a car wreck. Housing sales and housing prices are still projected to climb in 2006, just not as fast as in 2005.

But over-revved markets generally crack up rather than slow down gracefully: They've built up too much momentum to handle a change in direction without at least a bang against the guardrail.

Adding to the odds of a crackup is the very peculiar nature of the investment market for mortgages. Right now, there's a huge disconnect between the folks who are making the mortgage loans and the investors who ultimately wind up owning the mortgages. The mortgage lenders who know individual mortgage borrowers the best -- and the risk they do or don't represent -- are selling their riskiest mortgages. The investors who buy them know nothing about individual borrowers and are relying upon the magic of the Wall Street derivative market for risk protection.

Sound like a car wreck waiting to happen?

Let me explain how the wonders of Wall Street financial engineering have put conservative financial institutions such as insurance companies and pension funds in the path of the runaway mortgage market.

more...

[UpInArms]

38. Disney shares drop as profit falls 26.6%

the land where infotainment passes as snews!

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B69B0B2F2%2D03F6%2D4AFD%2D9F5F%2D3C1E0E3E6D19%7D&siteid=mktw

LOS ANGELES (MarketWatch) -- Shares of Walt Disney Co. slumped early Friday after the company reported a 26.6% drop in net income for the fourth quarter due mostly to underperforming films.

<snip>

The company said revenue for its studio entertainment division fell 20% to $1.5 billion, leading to an operating loss of $313 million during the quarter. The poor studio results were expected, though, as Disney had warned recently that the division's performance would be lackluster.

Disney said much of the results were due to decline at Miramax, lower unit sales and higher film cost write-downs. Revenue for the year at the division dropped 13%.

In a conference call, Disney executives said the studio results were "disappointing." Chief Financial Officer Thomas Staggs pointed out that much of the loss was due to the fact its Miramax division, which severed ties with principals Harvey and Bob Weinstein, released six films that performed poorly.

...more...

[Roland99]

40. Miramax. Hmm...I seem to recall a fuss with them involving Moore.

;)

[UpInArms]

41. 10:46 EST and not quite so happy

Dow 10,732.05 +11.83 (+0.11%)
Nasdaq 2,221.47 +1.01 (+0.05%)
S&P 500 1,243.86 +1.06 (+0.09%)
10-Yr Bond 4.496 +0.37 (+0.83%)

NYSE Volume 768,299,000
Nasdaq Volume 705,357,000

[UpInArms]

42. Commentary: To M3 or not to M3?

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/print_story.asp?print=1&guid={0CD96CE1-97BA-42DA-A472-2FA09F9B3913}&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The Federal Reserve's announcement that it will discontinue reporting the broad monetary measure of M3 has exposed a stark division between the establishment financial media (yawn) and investment letterland (aargh!), and above all -- the burgeoning financial blogosphere (Run for the hills!)

And, incidentally, with MarketWatch readers -- who, as my emails indicate, were instantly alert.

As I reported Monday, James Turk of Free Market Gold & Money Report complained about "an unbelievable announcement made this past week. Without explanation, the Fed disclosed: 'On March 23, 2006, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System will cease publication of the M3 monetary aggregate.'"

Turk's point:

"Why does the Fed no longer want to report the total quantity of dollars in circulation? They know what's coming -- massive amounts of dollar creation to fund the worsening trade and federal government budget deficits. The Fed is just doing what other government agencies already do when they don't like the result of their statistical calculations. Like children, they play 'make believe.'" (See Nov. 14 column)

...more...

[54anickel]

56. A Few Thoughts On Recently Announced Reporting Changes At The Fed

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/captainhook/captainhook111805.html

German Politicians were out late last week talking about selling some gold to pay their bills, but as per usual, this should all turn out to be more 'jaw-boning', as the Bundesbank will likely not allow it again. One big news item that came out last Thursday that will likely go through however is the Fed's decision to cease publication of M3 monetary aggregate statistics, including repurchase agreements (RPs) and Eurodollars. Is this development significant? You bet your 'bottom dollar' it is, and for more than one reason.

In the first place, the initial observation one should make concerning this move on the part of the Fed is that they obviously plan on monetizing increasing quantities of securities in the future, and they do not want the public (especially currency traders) to see exactly how much largesse will be involved. This tells us the economy is very weak, and that Mr. Bernanke is already gearing up for those helicopters.

That is to say, with the housing market now softening, aggregate consumer credit growth rates falling, and the general demand for money slowing as a result, the Fed has been forced to increase the rate at which it is adding liquidity to the system (monetizing securities) via direct market operations. Further to this, the fact they will cease reporting on RPs suggests they do not want observers knowing about elements of their day-to-day activities either, which will make it difficult for both equity market and currency speculators to estimate what they are up to in terms of short-term cycles. In this regard, as this information is of importance to us, the primary concern is they are effectively removing all of our reliable tools to discern exactly what they are doing, where for all intents and purposes, they will be able to debase the Dollar at any rate they wish after March of next year, and nobody, including other governments, will be the wiser.

For this reason, expect similar announcements from concerned US trading partners soon, where in effect, this is as big a deal as Nixon closing the 'gold window' back in '71, and we all know what happened after that. If I didn't know any better, and perhaps I don't, as we have underestimated the stupidity of current administrators numerous times throughout the years, it almost looks like the boys are getting ready to unleash Weimar Republic II on the world. Perhaps we should all be making sure our wheelbarrows are in good working order, no? My commodities broker's name is Harold. I think I'm going to give Harold a call in the morning and pick up a few gold contracts that will likely get delivered.

more...

[hvn_nbr_2]

67. "With enough wheelbarrows, we'll all survive Bush."

Thanks for that.

That's about what I thought when the M3 reporting change was announced. But in the DU threads about the announcement, most seemed to think it didn't really matter much.

It seems that the only sectors of the economy that are good are big oil and housing, but housing can't keep up forever without a decent general economy. If housing drops, we could be headed for 1929. I think they're planning to avert that by inflating everything to keep housing prices up and try to keep the economy at least somewhat functioning.

Back in Raygun's term, some general said, "With enough shovels (to scoop dirt over ourselves) we'll all survive nuclear war." I think the Fed is now saying, "With enough wheelbarrows, we'll all survive Bush."

[54anickel]

82. Greenspan's Legacy Of Debt (Lotsa ugly charts!)

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/kasriel111605.html

On the day that Ben Bernanke, the nominee for the next Fed chairman, appears before the Senate Banking Committee for his confirmation hearing, it is only fitting that his predecessor's legacy be reviewed. Although it is true that under Alan Greenspan's command of the Fed the U.S. economy has experienced unusually low volatility, this low volatility may turn out to have been a Faustian bargain. That is, the low volatility was achieved by increasing the indebtedness of the U.S. economy, especially the household sector, to record levels. And increasingly, the debt is owed to foreign entities, not ourselves. The final chapter on Greenspan's legacy will not be written until we see how this indebtedness issue is resolved.

Greenspan's predecessor, Paul Volcker, provided us some insights on these issues in an article he wrote for the April 10, 2005 edition of the Washington Post entitled "An Economy On Thin Ice," (www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A38725-2005Apr8.html) excerpts of which are quoted below.

snip>

Below are a series of charts illustrating aspects of record U.S. indebtedness. Although I have used most of these charts in various previous commentaries, they are assembled here in one place for your edification. The shaded areas in the charts denote Greenspan's tenure as chairman of the Federal Reserve.

Greenspan kept inflation-adjusted interest rates in negative territory for an extended period of time after the bursting of the NASDAQ bubble.

snip>

The potential adverse consequences of Greenspan's legacy of debt are:

> McMansions and SUVs will not make us more productive in the future.

> Foreign creditors could start to question how we will be able to pay future interest and dividend payments without resorting to "printing" dollars.

> If foreign creditors should question our ability and willingness to repay them without resorting to the currency printing press, there could be a run on the dollar.

> A run on the dollar would lead to sharply higher U.S. interest rates.

more...

[54anickel]

61. Prominent Conservative Leader: Government in Hands of Psychopaths

:tinfoilhat:

http://www.prisonplanet.com/articles/november2005/151105inhands.htm

snip>

During an interview with the Alex Jones Show, Roberts cited a Capitol Hill Blue article concerning a leaked memo circulating between top Republican leaders.

The memo outlines potential strategies to bring their agenda back online, including the capture of Osama bin Laden, a drastic turnaround in the economy or a resolution of the war in Iraq.

The most alarming option includes a terrorist attack that would validate the President's war on terror and "restore his image as leader of he American people."

This document adds to the mountainous pile of smoking gun evidence of government complicity in staged terror attacks and other false flag operations. It has now been declassified, as we already knew, that the Gulf of Tonkin never happened. It was staged to get us into Vietnam. Operation Northwoods was the official US government plan to carry out 9/11 style attacks against the American people and blame it on foreign enemies as a pretext for war.

more...


And from the leaked memo link there's this gem that gives me some hope.
http://www.prisonplanet.com/articles/november2005/121105newterror.htm

As Republican political strategists scramble to find a message – any message – that will ring true with voters, GOP leaders in Congress admit privately that control of their party by right-wing extremists makes their recovery all but impossible.

“We’ve made our bed with these people,” admits an aide to House Speaker Denny Hastert. “Now it’s the morning after and the hangover hurts like hell.”

[UpInArms]

63. these fools don't understand "coyote ugly"

you know, when you have awakened after a binge and you look at the lump beside you and realize that you need to chew your own arm off so as to slip out without waking up the thing you should never have gone home with :evilgrin:

[54anickel]

69. It seems the chewing is just beginning in the repub party as they are

coming out of their devotion to Bushco slumber. Must have been that damned polls alarm clock going off. They've been hitting the snooze button quite a bit. Let's hope they're late for the mid-terms.

[UpInArms]

46. 11:13 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,726.07 +5.85 (+0.05%)
Nasdaq 2,222.67 +2.21 (+0.10%)
S&P 500 1,244.33 +1.53 (+0.12%)
10-Yr Bond 4.494 +0.35 (+0.78%)

NYSE Volume 921,123,000
Nasdaq Volume 841,784,000

11:00AM: While remaining on positive turf, the indices have well pared their gains as sector standing has recently split down the middle. Energy's 0.5% decline leads the laggards, but a 0.3% slide in Utilities and Financials' slip into red create further pressure. Relative weakness in software (ERTS) and ORCL's continued decline has pushed the Technology sector to the flat line, ending the Nasdaq's outperformance and erasing substantial early leadership.NYSE Adv/Dec 1652/1315, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1585/1136

10:30AM: Little has changed for the equity market, which holds the major averages in place and with solid gains. Wide-spread buying has sent Telecom to the top of the market, but it's Industrials 1.2% gain and Tech's 0.4% rise that currently lend strongest support. With respect to the latter sector, soaring semiconductors - due to a spike in Marvell (MRVL 57.22 +6.73) shares following its upside Q3 report - pairs with Hewlett-Packard (HPQ 29.78 +0.78) in spearheading its advance. Strength across nearly the entire sector offsets the few sore spots, which include Cisco (CSCO 17.00 -0.37) and Autodesk (ADSK 41.48 -5.62). Shares of CSCO have dipped following confirmation of the company's $6.9 billion acquisition of Scientific Atlanta (SFA 42.06 +0.61), while ADSK, despite beating the street last night, disappointed investors with in-line guidance. NYSE Adv/Dec 1870/105, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1814/851

[UpInArms]

48. 11:36 EST joy has left the floor

Dow 10,710.70 -9.52 (-0.09%)
Nasdaq 2,219.62 -0.84 (-0.04%)
S&P 500 1,242.06 -0.74 (-0.06%)
10-Yr Bond 4.500 +0.41 (+0.92%)

NYSE Volume 1,044,684,000
Nasdaq Volume 942,382,000

[UpInArms]

47. Dec Gold @ $488.20 oz - Dec Copper @ $1.974 lb

11:09am 11/18/05 DEC GOLD UP $1.30 AT $488.20/OZ, NEARS INTRADAY, 18-YR HIGH

11:09am 11/18/05 DEC COPPER CLIMBS 2.8C TO $1.974/LB AFTER RECORD $1.98

[UpInArms]

52. Dec Gold @ $485.40 oz

12:24pm 11/18/05 DEC GOLD FALLS $1.50 TO $485.40/OZ IN AFTERNOON DEALINGS

[UpInArms]

65. Dec Gold closes @ $486.20 oz

1:50pm 11/18/05 DEC COPPER ENDS AT A RECORD $1.978/LB, UP 3.2C FOR THE DAY

1:50pm 11/18/05 DEC COPPER CLIMBS 3.8% FOR THE WEEK

1:49pm 11/18/05 JAN PLATINUM CLOSES AT $986.10/OZ, UP $3.70 FOR THE DAY

1:49pm 11/18/05 JAN PLATINUM ENDS UP $14.20, OR 1.5%, FOR THE WEEK

1:48pm 11/18/05 DEC GOLD CLOSES AT $486.20/OZ, DOWN 70C FOR THE DAY

1:48pm 11/18/05 DEC GOLD ENDS THE WEEK WITH A $16.80, OR 3.6% GAIN

[UpInArms]

49. US junk bond funds report $162 mln weekly outflow

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-11-18T163905Z_01_N1889174_RTRIDST_0_FINANCIAL-JUNKBONDS-AMG.XML

NEW YORK, Nov 18 (Reuters) - U.S. junk bond mutual funds reported $162 million in net outflows in the week ended Wednesday, the 10th straight week of outflows from the funds, AMG Data reported late Thursday.

The funds reported a $138 million net outflow the prior week.

Junk bonds are rated below investment grade and carry high yields to compensate for their risks.

Rising interest rates, a recent spate of bankruptcies and lackluster performance of junk bonds have caused this year's heavy outflows, strategists said.

[UpInArms]

50. ALCOA announces (salaried employees) layoffs

http://www.wbir.com/news/news.aspx?storyid=30203

About two dozen salaried workers at ALCOA's Rigid Packaging Division have been laid off.

A company spokeswoman says the positions have been eliminated and those affected were told yesterday.

ALCOA Tennessee Operations spokeswoman Melissa Copelan says the workers will receive what she termed "involuntary separation packages" in a reorganization of the North Plant in East Tennessee.

Copelan says a total of 40 salaried employees are affected, but some may be transferred or opt for early retirement.

...short blurb...

[ozymandius]

51. lunchtime buzz

12:12
Dow 10,716.94 -3.28 (-0.03%)
Nasdaq 2,223.49 +3.03 (+0.14%)
S&P 500 1,243.48 +0.68 (+0.05%)
10-Yr Bond 44.96 +0.37 (+0.83%)
NYSE Volume 1,201,690,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,066,159,000

12:05PM : Diving into the red, the market's major averages have fully pared the solid gains with which they started the session. A bullish air blew through early trade, catalyzed by multi-layered good news from General Electric (GE 35.57 +0.91) and upside earnings alongside an optimistic outlook from Hewlett-Packard (HPQ 29.22 +0.22). The 1% slide in crude oil futures gave traders further reason to extend November's rally, but, per usual, energy price declines spurred a market-dragging loss within the Energy sector (-0.5%). Although nine of the ten economic sector's had trended comfortably higher, leadership has been left with Telecom (+1.0%) and Industrials (+0.8%) as the second half of the day gets underway. GE can be credited for the latter sector's stance; this morning, the world's biggest conglomerate upped its FY06 earnings guidance, increased both its quarterly dividend and share buyback program, and announced a $6.8 billion divesture of its insurance unit. The company's news is reflective of Briefing.com's Overweight rating on that sector, and supports our view that good underlying fundamentals remain and position the market for a traditional year-end rally that should result in a 5% gain for the S&P. UPS (UPS 77.79 +0.97) lends secondary support, rising on reports that the company will boost shipping rates in the upcoming year. Despite HPQ's support and although semiconductors are soaring, the Technology sector has been relegated to the unchanged mark as pressure from Cisco (CSCO 66.99 -0.38) and Autodesk (ADSK 40.90 -6.20) pose offsetting losses. Shares of CSCO have dipped following confirmation of the company's $6.9 billion acquisition of Scientific Atlanta (SFA 42.14 +0.69), while ADSK, despite beating the street last night, disappointed investors with in-line guidance. With respect to semis, an earnings-induced surge in Marvell (MRVL) spearheads the group's advance as well as SOXX Index's outperformance. A drop in brokers weighs upon Financials, and a downbeat day within the Treasury market helps keep the rate-sensitive sector underwater. Although the economic calendar is blank, and thus did not provide bond sellers a catalyst today, attention to the flattening yield curve, which is at its narrowest since 2001, has pushed the 10-year down nine ticks and up to a 4.49% yield. While today's earnings front is a light one, investors had a host of upside reports delivered last night with which to contend. Aside from the aforementioned companies, Disney (DIS 25.15 -0.84) Starbucks (SBUX 30.81 -0.41) and Nordstrom (JWN 37.43 -1.04) are on the list; while the latter two lend some support to the Discretionary sector, DIS shares have been sent south - despite better than expected earnings - as the market appears to focus upon slightly light revenues. We remain committed to the name, though, and include it as a suggested holding in our Active Portfolio due to its double-digit earnings growth, visibility, strong cash flow generation, shareholder value, and operating momentum. NYSE Adv/Dec 1503/1568, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1572/1264

[UpInArms]

53. 12:44 EST all red now

Dow 10,701.57 -18.65 (-0.17%)
Nasdaq 2,220.12 -0.34 (-0.02%)
S&P 500 1,240.90 -1.90 (-0.15%)
10-Yr Bond 4.490 +0.31 (+0.70%)

NYSE Volume 1,332,667,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,184,055,000

12:30PM: Tech's uptick and strength in biotechs has helped the Nasdaq regain its footing, but the S&P lies at the unchanged mark while the Dow lingers below it. Despite strength in its biotech group, the Healthcare sector's rise is stalled by a 1.9% fall in healthcare distributors. Separately, crude remains 1% lower on the day, with futures contracts currently trading at $55.80 per barrel. Aside from spurring the 0.7% slide in the Energy sector - led by drillers - crude action has had little effect upon today's market. NYSE Adv/Dec 1548/1553, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1623/1259

[UpInArms]

55. Politicians dominate utility commissions-report

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-11-18T174657Z_01_N18263286_RTRIDST_0_UTILITIES-POLITICS.XML

NEW YORK, Nov 18 (Reuters) - The Center for Public Integrity questioned the integrity of states' utility commissions across the United States on Friday, noting almost half had once held elected office, were political staffers or appointed.

Public utility commissions or public service commissions are charged with regulating companies that provide basic public services such as electricity, water and natural gas services.

But the Center's report, entitled "Nice Work If You Can Get It," found that very few commissioners, who are usually appointed by a state's governor, very rarely have consumers' interest in mind.

Instead, the commissioners are much more likely to have a background in politics or the utility industries they regulate rather than in consumer advocacy, the report said.

The nonprofit, nonpartisan research group looked at 199 commissioners in a state-by-state survey and identified only eight that it said could be fairly described as having experience as consumer advocates.

...more...

[UpInArms]

72. Nice Work If You Can Get It

http://www.publicintegrity.org/telecom/report.aspx?aid=762

WASHINGTON, November 17, 2005 — When Martin Cohen was appointed head of the Illinois Commerce Commission, the regulatory body that oversees utilities in the state, he joined a very small fraternity.

Cohen took the post in September 2005 pending confirmation by state lawmakers, becoming only the nation's eighth utility commissioner since 2004 to have a background as a consumer advocate. In his former role as executive director of the Citizens Utility Board, he had been a harsh critic of the state's big power companies.

But his confirmation was not to be.

The Illinois Senate, which has several members who receive generous campaign contributions from those same companies, fell two votes shy of the majority needed to confirm him. He lost his job in October.

One senator told a reporter that Cohen "has a certain bias against utility companies."

<snip>

Cohen said that during the confirmation process one senator asked whether he would accept the president of Commonwealth Edison, the dominant local utility, as a member of the commission. Cohen said if he were to "sell all his stock, leave his retirement program and take a 95 percent pay cut, we would welcome him."

...more...

Only if you represent the utilities is there "no conflict". What a joke (only I'm not laughing) on all the people that are supposedly represented.

[UpInArms]

75. Calif. Public Utilities Commission OKs Verizon-MCI merger

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38674.6322301968-851301232&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Verizon Communications' (VZ) proposed $8.5 billion acquisition of MCI Inc. (MCIP) was approved Friday by the California Public Utilities Commission. As a condition of approving the deal, the commission said it required Verizon to stop forcing customers to maintain traditional local phone service as a condition of accessing a digital subscriber line. The deal is still awaiting approval in other states.

[54anickel]

57. Spendthrift Nation (Fed)

http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/letter/2005/el2005-30.html

In September 2005, the personal saving rate out of disposable income was negative for the fourth consecutive month. A negative saving rate means that U.S. consumers are spending more than 100% of their monthly after-tax income. The recent data are part of a trend of declining personal saving rates observed for two decades. During the 1980s, the personal saving rate averaged 9.0%. During the 1990s, the personal saving rate averaged 5.2%. Since 2000, the personal saving rate has averaged only 1.9%.

This Economic Letter discusses some of the factors that appear to be driving the secular decline in the personal saving rate. These factors include rapid increases in stock market and residential property wealth, which households apparently view as a substitute for the quaint practice of putting aside money each month from their paychecks. Rapidly rising stock and house prices, fueled by an accommodative environment of low interest rates and a proliferation of "exotic" mortgage products (loans with little or no down payment, minimal documentation of income, and payments for interest-only or less) have sustained a boom in household spending and provided collateral for record-setting levels of household debt relative to income.

Going forward, the possibility of cooling asset markets and rising borrowing costs may cause the personal saving rate to revert to levels which are more in line with historical averages. While such a development would act as near-term drag on household spending and GDP growth, an increase in domestic saving would help correct the large imbalance that now exists in the U.S. current account (the combined balances of the international trade account, net foreign income, and unilateral transfers).

Measurement issues

The aggregate personal saving rate computed by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is the fraction of after-tax personal income that remains after subtracting various types of consumption expenditures. Some commentators argue that the BEA understates the actual saving rate because the definition of saving omits capital gains on stock portfolios and real estate which, other things equal, raise the net worth of households. Others maintain that capital gains should not be included in the definition because they represent the return from past saving activity which has already been counted; assets showing capital gains today were presumably acquired in the past using the residual of disposable income minus consumption. Many also note that capital gains on previously acquired assets can be fleeting if they are the result of speculative price appreciation, i.e., bubbles. Finally, even when justified by fundamentals, price appreciation on previously acquired assets does not create any new productive assets. The latter are a crucial source of long-run productivity gains and improved living standards.

Other issues surrounding the measurement of the saving rate include the method of accounting for employer pension contributions (which are treated as income even though these funds are not available for immediate use by households) and education expenditures by households (which are treated as consumption even though the spending may augment the stock of human capital).

more...

[54anickel]

59. By mistake, American Express offers a card to kitty

http://www.hometownannapolis.com/cgi-bin/read/2005/11_16-40/TOP

snip>

Last month Marilyn Hecox's 4-year-old black domestic short-hair, Samson, received an offer for the American Express Rewards Plus Gold Card.

"At first it's funny. Then you get a little nervous about it," Mrs. Hecox said, sitting in her dining room and thumbing through the application with a puzzled look on her face while Samson sat at the door waiting to be let outside.

"As the membership criteria at American Express remains stringent, the Rewards Plus Gold Card is difficult to acquire for all but the most financially disciplined," the application letter starts off.

snip>

The card offer is riddled with praise for Samson, touting his financial prowess, assuring him that he's "earned this recognition":

"Only a select group of people will ever carry the Rewards Plus Gold Card. It instantly identifies you as someone special - one who has earned a superior degree of financial freedom."

"It really goes on about how great a credit record he could have," Ms. Hecox said. "How could they say that?"

more...

[UpInArms]

60. LOL!

Here Kitty! Here Kitty Kitty!

[54anickel]

62. Heh, I'm sending this to one of the nephews that's always bragging

about the fawning letters he gets from the credit card companies. :evilgrin:

[54anickel]

64. When profits go poof!

http://www.prudentbear.com/archive_comm_article.asp?category=Guest+Commentary&content_idx=48613

Wall Street executives are always creatively stating reasons why investors should buy stocks. Because corporate profits have been so good, they want investors to look forward to the inevitable year-end stock market rally and forget any negativity they’ve heard about investing in stocks, or rising interest rates. It’s not necessary to look to the future they say; just close your eyes and buy now!

When looking in my rear view mirror, I have to admit that profits made on Wall Street have been great. Indeed, as a percent of GDP, profits are pushing a record. Following are some reasons why this has occurred:

►Making money in banking and finance was a breeze when the fed funds rate was 1 percent and the yield curve was steep;

►The housing bubble has created economic growth and job gains through the building of new homes, the hiring of mortgage bankers, and the issuance of 400,000 more real estate brokerage licenses (America now has over 1.2 million real estate agents who make over $60 billion in commissions a year;

►Home equity extraction (in 2004 alone, Americans took out $600 billion);

►The Trade deficit in the United States has given the Chinese, and the rest of the world, mountains of dollars with which to buy oil and other commodities.

Next year, however, could be a totally different vehicle as this profit engine runs out of gas. Much too much profit has been made in energy and finance. These profits won’t last. In addition, the high cost of gas, heating oil, and natural gas (especially as we approach the home heating season), will drag down consumer spending, while increased producer prices dig into corporate profits. Quick energy profits today will come at the expense of every other industry’s profits tomorrow!

more...

[TheGunslinger]

76. Same as the dot-com bubble burst

That had a domino-like effect on the rest of the economy.

It's another white-collar-industry led recession that will affect everyone.

[UpInArms]

66. U.S. House votes to repeal Byrd trade law

http://today.reuters.com/PrinterFriendlyPopup.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=uri:2005-11-18T185358Z_01_N18606764_RTRIDST_0_TRADE-BYRD-UPDATE-1.XML

WASHINGTON, Nov 18 (Reuters) - The U.S. House of Representatives voted on Friday to kill a trade program that has paid more than $1 billion to U.S. companies since 2000 and been declared illegal by the World Trade Organization.

The House repealed the Continued Dumping and Subsidy Offset Act as part of a package of budget cuts intended to save nearly $50 billion over five years.

The Senate's $35 billion package of budget cuts leaves the measure intact.

Under the program, the U.S. government collects duties on imports that it has determined are unfairly priced or subsidized and distributes them to competing American companies.

The money went into the general U.S. Treasury before the law was passed five years ago.

Canadian Trade Minister Jim Peterson hailed the House vote and urged the Senate "to follow suit at the earliest opportunity."

...more...

[UpInArms]

74. UPS lays out rate hikes for '06

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B44EC5A32%2DCB17%2D4635%2D9184%2D3AC4F423B194%7D&siteid=mktw

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- UPS announced Friday that it will increase its rates on business air and ground shipping for next year and will now charge shippers for packages that aren't received after three attempts.

Commercial ground services will rise by 3.9% while air and international services will rise 5.5% in 2006, the Atlanta company (UPS) said.

For its air-fuel surcharge, which is based on jet fuel prices, UPS said it will lower the index used to set its surcharge by 2 percentage points. The company's 12.5% maximum on the air fuel surcharge will remain in place; currently this ceiling limits how much customers pay because jet fuel prices have risen so much this year.

The adjusted index will result in lower prices, the company said, when jet fuel prices come down. See UPS' fuel surcharges.

The higher rates will go in to effect Jan. 2, 2006 and will be posted on UPS' Web site on Dec. 1.

...more...

[UpInArms]

77. Lockheed Martin continues layoffs

http://dallas.bizjournals.com/dallas/stories/2005/11/14/daily50.html?jst=b_ln_hl

Lockheed Martin Aeronautics Co. in Fort Worth is planning to lay off 335 workers in its F-16 program beginning in January, according to a filing with the Texas Workforce Commission.

The most recent round of layoffs are part of a plan the company announced last year to cut 800 to 1,000 positions. The layoffs are scheduled to begin Jan. 16. Workers were notified Monday.

"This has really been going on for about two years now," said Lockheed Martin spokesman Joe Stout. "The production activity has come down somewhat, so we're transitioning this program toward a lower production rate."

The company has just more than 15,000 employees in Fort Worth, about 4,000 of which work in the F-16 program. The company had 6,000 people working on the program last year.

...more...

[TheGunslinger]

78. 3:15 - I can see clearly now, the red is gone

DOW +19.85 10,740.07
NAS +4.65 2,225.11
S&P +3.54 1,246.34

[ozymandius]

79. heading into the home stretch

3:42
Dow 10,759.04 +38.82 (+0.36%)
Nasdaq 2,226.46 +6.00 (+0.27%)
S&P 500 1,247.58 +4.78 (+0.38%)
10-Yr Bond 45.02 +0.43 (+0.96%)
NYSE Volume 2,105,480,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,783,342,000

3:25PM: Heading slighly higher as the closing bell approaches, the indices move out of their highest levels since lunch. While each average is distanced from session highs that were established in the early going, the market's internals further reflect the reassumed bullish bias. Presently, advancers on the NYSE outrun decliners 6-to-5, while the Nasdaq's advancing issues have a 17-to-13 lead over their counterparts. NYSE Adv/Dec 1673/1581, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1720/1282

3:00PM: More of the same for the market's majors...

As this week trading comes to a close, investors are perhaps looking towards the week ahead. While the Q3 earnings season continues to taper off, some notable companies will report next week, alongside a handful of economic releases. The beginning of the week features the bulk of the data, with Campbell's Soup's (CPB) earnings report starting off the week. Also on Monday, the October leading indicators report will be released. Tuesday, Albertson's (ABS), Deere (DE), Dollar Tree (DLTR), and HJ Heinz (HNZ) will announce earnings, while the corporate front will bring the FOMC's minutes from the November 1 meeting. Hormel Foods (HRL) is one of Wednesday's earners, slated to report results ahead of the University of Michigan's revised October sentiment report, the October help-wanted index, and the EIA's latest energy inventory report. NYSE Adv/Dec 1757/1476, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1786/1213

[54anickel]

81. Building up those year end bonuses again?

[ozymandius]

83. I think so. Smells like typical "gimme a bonus check" spirit. n/t

[54anickel]

80. HP reports 62% drop in profit

Profit falls 62% on cost of layoffs, but income grows

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/chronicle/archive/2005/11/18/BUGT3FQ6H61.DTL&type=business

Hewlett-Packard Co. reported Thursday a 62 percent drop in net profit, due to larger than expected costs related to its ongoing reorganization, which includes more than 15,000 layoffs.

But the Palo Alto company posted strong growth in operating income, beating Wall Street estimates by a nickel and boosting HP's stock in late trading Thursday.

HP shares rose 73 cents, or 2.6 percent, to $29 in regular trading, then jumped 5.8 percent to $30.68 in late trading.

HP reported net income of $416 million (14 cents per share) on revenue of $22.9 billion in the fourth quarter, compared with net profit of $1.09 billion (37 cents) on revenue of $21.39 billion in the same period last year.

more...

[ozymandius]

84. closing numbers with blather

Have a great weekend folks!

ozy :hi:
Dow 10,766.33 +46.11 (+0.43%)
Nasdaq 2,227.07 +6.61 (+0.30%)
S&P 500 1,248.27 +5.47 (+0.44%)
10-Yr Bond 45.02 +0.43 (+0.96%)
NYSE Volume 2,422,564,000
Nasdaq Volume 2,042,853,000

Close Dow +46.11 at 10766.33, S&P +5.47 at 1248.27, Nasdaq +6.61 at 2227.07: For the fourth consecutive week, the equity market closed higher - extending the average 4.9% the indices have registered this month. The bullish bias that catalyzed early gains returned late in the day, ending the flat line vacillation that had persisted throughout much of the session. Multi-faceted good news from General Electric (GE 35.75 +1.09) and better than expected fiscal Q4 earnings and upbeat guidance from Hewlett-Packard (HPQ 29.39 +0.39) teamed with rebounding General Motors (GM 24.17 +1.54) shares in mobilizing buyers. Following the five-month low crude hit yesterday, extended pullbacks in energy prices shoved Energy to a session-dragging loss, but the turnaround the sector managed to stage helped lift the lid off of the indices' advances and send them to session highs. Leadership had primarily rested within Telecom and Industrials - each up 1.1% - but late-day buying action took each of the ten sectors higher. With respect to Industrials, GE can be credited for its performance. Ahead of the bell, the world's biggest conglomerate upped its FY06 earnings guidance, increased both its quarterly dividend and share buyback program, and announced a $6.8 billion divesture of its insurance unit. The company's news reflects Briefing.com's Overweight rating on that sector, and supports our view that good underlying fundamentals remain and position the market for a traditional year-end rally that should result in a 5% gain for the S&P. Additionally, UPS (UPS 78.15 +1.33) contributed secondary support upon reports that the company will implement higher shipping prices in 2006. Despite weakness within the bond market, and although attention remains focused upon a yield curve that's at its narrowest since 2001, banks stood strong and paired with recovered brokers in leading Financials 0.4% higher. Driven by HPQ and surging semiconductors - which were led by an earnings-related rise in Marvell (MRVL 56.77 +6.28) shares - Technology modestly rose from its passive position to contribute 0.2%. The SOXX Index, meanwhile, climbed 2.5%. Capping both the sector's and the Nasdaq's advance, though, were offsetting losses posed by Cisco (CSCO 17.02 -0.35) and Autodesk (ADSK 38.74 -8.36). Shares of CSCO slid upon confirmation of the company's $6.9 billion acquisition of Scientific Atlanta (SFA 42.06 +0.61), while ADSK, despite beating the street last night, disappointed investors with in-line guidance. While the economic front was clear and although the earnings front was limited, yesterday evening's after hours session featured a host of upside reports through which traders sifted today. Disney (DIS 25.12 -0.87) Starbucks (SBUX 30.92 -0.30) and Nordstrom (JWN 37.51 -0.96) were amongst them, but each nonetheless faced selling. DIS shares felt especial heat as the market appeared to dismiss upside earnings in favor of slightly light revenues and a year-over-year decline in net income. We remain committed to the name, though, and include it as a suggested holding in our Active Portfolio. Despite losses extended by that trio - and even though Gap's (GPS 17.1 -1.50) dismal report spurred further downside, the Discretionary sector managed to seize a 0.6% gain for which an extended rise in GM - in the wake of a reassuring memo posted by the company's CEO yesterday - can be mostly credited. NYSE Adv/Dec 1932/1345, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1835/1211