STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday 13 October

[ozymandius]

Thursday October 13, 2005

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 3 YEARS, 101 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 4 YEARS, 297 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 3 YEARS, 361 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1418
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON October 12, 2005

Dow... 10,216.91 -36.26 (-0.35%)
Nasdaq... 2,037.47 -23.62 (-1.15%)
S&P 500... 1,177.68 -7.19 (-0.61%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.44% +0.06 (+1.30%)
Gold future... 476.60 -3.20 (-0.67%)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie


PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Chris Puplava

SELLING CONTINUES IN MARKETS WITH NASDAQ AND SMALL CAPS HIT HARDEST

The selling continued in the markets today as the tech-laden Nasdaq continued its decent toward the 2000 level after troubling news of Intel being downgraded by Prudential, falling 1.15%. Prudential analysts said that Intel could face disappointing revenues and margins possibly all the way into next year. Small caps also took a hit as the S&P 600 fell 1.33%, while the S&P 400 mid cap index fell 1.3%, both falling more than the S&P 500, which dropped 0.61% for the day. Oil ended slightly higher today at $64.18 and the dollar slightly lower at 83.14 cents against the euro, while gold fell $5.60 to $470.50.

As last week saw the markets reacting strongly to the Institute of Supply and Management’s report on business (see 10/05/05 wrap up), more of the same is shaping up this week.

Several pieces of economic news were released today pointing to a weakening economy and slowdown in the housing bubble. The Mortgage Bankers' Association (MBA) released today the MBA purchase index for the October 7th week, which fell 0.9% to 469.5. The release today marks the fourth straight decline, no doubt reflecting the hurricane impacts.

The purchase applications index measures applications at mortgage lenders, which is a leading indicator for single-family home sales and housing construction. Each time the construction of a new home begins, it translates to more construction jobs, and income which will be pumped back into the economy. Once a home is sold, it generates revenues for the home builder and the realtor, bringing a host of consumption opportunities for the buyer. Refrigerators, washers, dryers and furniture are just a few items new home buyers might purchase. The economic "ripple effect" can be substantial, which is why four straight weeks of the MBA purchasing index falling might lessen Greenspan’s concerns of the housing bubble.

more...

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[54anickel]

138. Wednesday's Breakdowns (Hussman)

http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc051010.htm

Well, the market fell last week, apparently on news that President Bush chose Tommy “Moe” Johnson, a Domino's pizza delivery boy, as his nominee to replace Alan Greenspan as Fed Chairman.

“I was just in the right place at the right time” said Tommy, who had inadvertently wandered into the Oval Office with a large pepperoni as Bush was making his choice. Runners up included Martin “Eenie” Feldstein of the National Bureau of Economic Research, John “Meenie” Taylor of Stanford University, and Ben “Mynie” Bernanke of the Council of Economic Advisors.

Seriously, although CNBC inexplicably blamed last week's decline on the hawkish comments of a fairly obscure Fed governor, my impression is that investors were expressing a distinct loss of confidence on a variety of fronts. Wednesday was particularly decisive – to an extent that I closed the bulk of our remaining exposure to market fluctuations in the Strategic Growth Fund about mid-afternoon. There has to be a lot wrong with market action to provoke me to increase hedges when the market is down rather than up. There was a lot wrong on Wednesday – it was singularly the worst technical showing I can recall in years.

Other veteran market-watchers had similar comments. The Dow was down 123 points, which wasn't in itself so unusual, but the internal action was terrible. Richard Russell commented after the close that the action was “a really mean mark today, with my PTI close to a bear signal, and Lowry's also close to a major sell signal. I still get the feeling that complacency rules. Today was what I call a semi-crash day.” On the subject of complacency, Investors Intelligence reports that the majority of investment advisors have been bullish now for 154 weeks, which is the longest bullish stretch in the 42 years the figures have been tracked. Joe Granville described Wednesday as having “the most bearish reversal patterns that I have ever seen in one day,” which is an interesting statement even for a perennial bear.

snip>

Looking at the last 5 bars, the market started off well last week, with the Dow approaching 10,600 in the early hours of trading on Monday. Then we saw the first failure, as the market lost all of those gains and closed down on the day. Tuesday enjoyed another brief rally attempt that held into the early afternoon, then withered abruptly toward the close. You'll note that Wednesday started from Tuesday's closing low and just continued down. What's important there is that by mid-afternoon, the Dow broke both August and September lows, in tandem with other indices including the S&P 500, the Russell 2000 and the Nasdaq Composite.

Meanwhile, as I noted last week, new lows have been periodically exceeding the number of new highs, but in contrast to what occurs in a healthy market, both figures have been quite high – indicating a very significant amount of internal “turbulence” or divergence. Market breadth, as measured by various advance-decline lines, also deteriorated pointedly, while trading volume showed a strong tendency to expand on downticks.

more...

[ozymandius]

2. Oil Prices Climb on Worries About Demand

SINGAPORE - Crude oil prices rose Thursday after the U.S.
Department of Energy said the world's appetite for crude would remain strong into 2006.

The agency also said American households would pay 32 percent to 48 percent more to heat their homes during the upcoming winter and predicted benchmark crude oil prices to average around $64 to $65 a barrel next year.

-cut-

"This winter, residential space-heating expenditures are projected to increase for all fuel types compared to year-ago levels," the federal Energy Information Administration said.

The Energy Department said that those who heat their homes with fuel oil will pay $378 more, or 32 percent above last winter. Residential natural gas customers can expect to pay an average of $350 more during the upcoming winter compared to last year, an increase of 48 percent.

more

[ozymandius]

3. Canada Warns That Tariffs on Lumber Could Imperil U.S. Access to Oil

TORONTO, Oct. 11 - Upset over persistent American tariffs on Canadian softwood lumber, Canadian leaders are warning the Bush administration that it is risking secure access to Canadian oil supplies.

In recent days Canada has begun playing a newly minted China card, suggesting in a series of subtle threats that it was willing to satisfy China's growing appetite for Canadian oil and wood that would otherwise go south to the United States.

The trade conflict has been growing worse ever since August, when the Bush administration refused to obey a direction from a special North American Free Trade Agreement panel to refund $5 billion in tariffs collected from Canadian softwood lumber exporters.

"If Nafta is called into question by U.S. action, it calls for us to diversify our trade and investment relations," said Acting Natural Resources Minister John McCallum in a telephone interview on Tuesday, only moments before he left for China to meet with oil, mining and forestry officials.

more...

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/12/international/americas/12canada.html

[Roland99]

13. This whole tale just slays me.

This administration (very pro-NAFTA/CAFTA/SHAFTYA) turns on NAFTA when it means dollars. I guess NAFTA wasn't pro-US enough.

And Canada has this admin over a barrel, too (no pun intended ;) ) and they know it. That wood is needed to help recover after Katrina and Rita. The US has been clamoring "keep your cheap wood outta here" and is now nearly begging for help but yet refusing to follow NAFTA's decision.

[ozymandius]

16. Honestly.

This administration is willing to accept help. Only on their terms, though. Choosy beggars usually remain needy.

[AnneD]

52. Morning Marketeers,

:donut: NAFTA/CAFTA/SHAFTYA....love it and ain't it sooo true. If I can ask those on SW thread....how have you prepared for the next few months of the economy-----invested in the emerging markets, secure investments like T Bills, CD's, ziplock baggies filled with cash. What do you look for in an investment at this time...ability to keep up with inflation or maybe security? Opinions welcomed. Happy Hunting and watch out for the bears.

[Mojorabbit]

76. I am at a loss too

I moved some IRAs into energy funds, bought a little gold, and have the rest in CD's in case I have to pull it out. I am not sure which way to go.

[AnneD]

88. I agree....

I stopped my 403B contributions in order to pay off debts. I rebalanced 403B at the end of last year, placing a portion in secure (read low yield), a larger portion in emerging markets, a small portion in growth, a small portion in international. Once I am debt free, I will start a Roth.
I read a very interesting academic paper that mentioned,among other things, that those pretax savings may not be such a hot idea because it lowers your income (which hurts your SS level later) among other things.
I like the fact that your Roth interest grows tax free-cause we know that the taxes will go up. You have to pull out your 403 anf I will probably have to pay the new high tax rate (thank you Dubya).
I am still looking into it all, but this market makes me nervous about what I DO have there.

[dretceterini]

95. Interest rates seem to be rising

so we have most of our savings in short term CDs.

[RawMaterials]

103. Ing Direct is a bank account

online that proubably has a better yeild then you short term cd's and
its fdic up to 100k

http://home.ingdirect.com/

[dretceterini]

108. That's where our short term

CDs are. They pay a little more than regular ING savings accounts...

[AnneD]

131. Thanks

I'll check into it. I want something short term, high yield, portable and safe. Gee, I don't ask for much......

[dretceterini]

143. The 3 best on line places are...

but the accounts are slightly different..

EmigrantDirect is a savings account with full access, at 4%.

A one year CD at ING with no minimum deposit is 4.2%.

A one year CD at Virtualbank is 4.35%, but they have a $10,000 minimum deposit.

[Roland99]

142. Investments? What are those?

Even with this new job it will be some months before I'm not living paycheck-to-paycheck.

[54anickel]

92. Nafta Frays as Canada, Mexico Accuse U.S. of Flouting Rules

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000082&sid=a91wyelXZe9s&refer=canada

Oct. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Canada and Mexico are escalating their allegations that the U.S. is flouting the terms of the North American Free Trade Agreement in order to protect domestic producers.

Canadians are dropping what Prime Minister Paul Martin called ``the safe language of diplomacy'' and spurning new negotiations on a dispute involving U.S. export limits on Canadian softwood lumber. Mexico is publicly supporting the Canadians in the lumber case as it pursues its own grievance over a long-running sugar trade dispute.

The spats threaten to fray Nafta, the landmark 1994 accord that set up the world's largest trading bloc, and damage diplomatic relations with two of the U.S.'s closest allies.

``We've got two really big cases with huge political ramifications'' for the U.S., said Gary Hufbauer, a fellow at the Institute for International Economics in Washington. ``What's needed now is some kind of political settlement.''

Much of the U.S. policy on these issues has been dictated by domestic industries fearful of competition from cheaper foreign goods, Hufbauer said. President George W. Bush needs to intervene with domestic industry and ``knock some heads,'' said Hufbauer, author of the forthcoming book ``Nafta Revisited.''

more...

[UpInArms]

78. Nov Crude @ $63.30 bbl - NatGas @ $13.32 mln btus

12:27pm 10/13/05 NOV CRUDE FALLS 82C TO $63.30/BRL IN AFTERNOON TRADE

12:27pm 10/13/05 NOV NATURAL GAS DOWN 20.4C, OR 1.5%, AT $13.32/MLN BTUS

12:27pm 10/13/05 NOV UNLEADED GAS DOWN 2.4%; NOV HEATING OIL DOWN 2%

[UpInArms]

117. Nov Crude closes @ $63.08 bbl - NatGas @ $13.10 mln btus

2:55pm 10/13/05 NOV NATURAL GAS DROPS 42.1C, OR 3%, TO END AT $13.10/MLN BTU

2:53pm 10/13/05 NOV CRUDE CLOSES AT $63.08/BRL, DOWN $1.04, OR 1.6%

[ozymandius]

4. Today's data being reported:

8:30 AM Export Prices ex-ag.

8:30 AM Import Prices ex-oil

8:30 AM Initial Claims

8:30 AM Trade Balance

10:30 AM Crude Inventories

[UpInArms]

20. reports tumbling in:

8:30am 10/13/05 U.S. SEPT. NATURAL GAS PRICES RISE 28.8%

8:30am 10/13/05 U.S. SEPT. IMPORTED PETROLEUM PRICES CLIMB 7.3%

8:30am 10/13/05 U.S. AUG. TRADE GAP WITH CHINA RECORD $18.5 BLN

8:30am 10/13/05 CUMULATIVE TOLL OF HURRICANES: 438,000 JOBLESS CLAIMS

8:30am 10/13/05 U.S. AUG. TRADE GAP ROUGHLY IN LINE WITH CONSENSUS $59.5 BLN

8:30am 10/13/05 HURRICANES BOOST JOBLESS CLAIMS BY 75,000: DOL

8:30am 10/13/05 U.S. AUG. TRADE GAP WIDENS 1.8% TO $59.0 BLN

8:30am 10/13/05 U.S. SEPT. EXPORT PRICE INDEX RISES 0.9%

8:30am 10/13/05 U.S. SEPT. IMPORT PRICES EX-OIL RISES RECORD 1.2%

8:30am 10/13/05 U.S. SEPT. IMPORT PRICE INCREASE HIGHEST IN 15 YEARS

8:30am 10/13/05 U.S. CONTINUING JOBLESS CLAIMS OFF 5,000 TO 2.87 MLN

8:30am 10/13/05 U.S. INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS FALL 2,000 TO 389,000

8:30am 10/13/05 U.S. SEPT. IMPORT PRICE INDEX RISES 2.3%

[UpInArms]

22. U.S. trade gap widens to $59.0 bln in August

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38638.3543281134-845815880&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The U.S. trade deficit widened by 1.8% in August to $59.0 billion, the Commerce Department said Thursday. The trade deficit was in line with the consensus forecast of Wall Street economists. Imports rose faster than exports in August. Much of the deterioration was due to the higher costs of imported oil. The U.S. trade deficit with China widened to a record $18.5 billion in August and totals $126.2 billion so far this year. There was no discernable impact on the August trade data from Hurricane Katrina, which struck the Gulf Coast on Aug. 29 and closed the Port of New Orleans.

[UpInArms]

26. more info:

Trade gap widens in August
Rising petroleum prices account for much of deterioration

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B79F482C6%2D4B8C%2D41D0%2D88E5%2D8FC223D0B5E7%7D&siteid=mktw

excerpt:

Economists expect the hurricane will have a significant impact on the trade balance in September. The government will release its first estimate of the damage from the hurricanes on trade in the Gulf Coast region on Oct. 21.

In August, imports rose slightly faster than exports. August's imports rose 1.8% to a record $167.2 billion, while exports rose 1.6% to a record $108.2 billion.

Rising petroleum prices was a major factor in the report. The petroleum deficit widened $1.5 billion to $20.6 billion.

The value of U.S. oil imports rose to a record $17.2 billion in August from $15.3 billion in July. The price of a barrel of oil was a record $52.65.

Imports of goods alone rose 2.1% to $140.5 billion, as auto imports rose sharply. However imports of consumer goods declined in August.

<snip>

The U.S. trade deficit with China widened to a record $18.5 billion in August and totals $126.2 billion so far this year.

...more...

[UpInArms]

23. U.S. Sept. import prices rise most in 15 years

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?guid={9EC4BABC-DDAD-4C11-A768-CB4942305051}&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Prices of goods imported into the U.S. climbed 2.3% in September, the highest in 15 years, as costs of natural gas and oil continued to rise. The September import price index was far above the 0.9% expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. Prices for imported natural gas rose 28.8% in September, as imported oil prices rose 7.3%, the Department of Labor said Thursday. Excluding oil, import prices climbed a record 1.2%. Excluding all fuels, prices rose 0.4%.

[UpInArms]

28. more info:

U.S. import prices rise on energy
Natural gas imports climb 28.8% in September

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B5487204D%2D768D%2D4927%2D83DF%2DF6706D35B591%7D&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Prices of goods imported into the U.S. climbed 2.3% in September, the highest in 15 years, as costs of natural gas and oil continued to rise.

The September import price index was far above the 0.9% expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch.

Prices for imported natural gas rose 28.8% in September, as imported oil prices rose 7.3%, the Department of Labor said Thursday.

<snip>

Agriculture exports decreased the most since August 2004, down by 1.4%.

The U.S. government had been running a de facto weak dollar policy to encourage higher prices for imported goods, both to fight possible deflation and to strengthen the competitiveness of U.S.-made goods. But since the first of year, the dollar has strengthened.

...more...

[UpInArms]

24. Jacking with the unemployment claims again

Oct 13	8:30 AM	Initial Claims	10/08	-	350K	360K	390K	-

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38638.3545141898-845815932&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - First-time claims for U.S. jobless benefits fell by 2,000 to 389,000 in the week ending Oct. 8, the Labor Department said Thursday. The four-week average of new claims fell by 8,750 to 395,750. Hurricanes Katrina and Rita contributed an estimated 75,000 to last week's filings. A total of 438,000 hurricane-related jobless claims have been filed since Katrina stormed ashore on Aug. 29. Meanwhile, the number of Americans collecting jobless benefits fell by 5,000 to 2.87 million in the week ending Oct. 1. The insured unemployment rate fell by a tenth of a percentage point to 2.2%.

Let's look at this - if they "sunk" by 2,000 to 389,000 and last week's claims were 390,000, then they actually were 391,000 and rose by 1,000 (gotta watch the ball and the shell game going on here).

Then the expectations were for 350,000, so this is 41,000 claims above their "expectations".

:eyes:

[ozymandius]

31. Job Losses From Hurricanes Move Higher

WASHINGTON - The number of people who have lost their jobs because of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita jumped to 438,000 last week as the economic shockwaves from the nation's costliest natural disaster continued to be felt six week after Katrina careened across the Gulf Coast.

The Labor Department reported that an additional 75,000 hurricane-related claims were filed last week out of a nationwide total of 389,000 new claims for unemployment benefits.

Government analysts said that Katrina, which hit near New Orleans on Aug. 29, was still accounting for more layoffs than Rita, which came ashore near the Texas-Louisiana border on Sept. 24.

In other economic news, the
Commerce Department reported Thursday that the nation's trade deficit rose 1.8 percent in August to $59.03 billion, an increase that was driven by higher oil prices.

more

[AnneD]

54. Good Call, UIA,

How do they calculate the self employed whose livelyhood was wiped out?

[UpInArms]

57. why would those people be counted?

Only if they had employees that filed for unemployment claims - those employees would be counted, but those small business owners? Hah!

Dead! Morte! Disappeared!

:argh:

[AnneD]

67. So....

that data is not capture anywhere? I ask because I know of individuals that had their own business that lost it all. Wow so it is like they never existed, even though they paid taxes, spent money for their business, etc....and that is not captured anywhere. I know a daycare owner that had numerous locations and employees. They get unemployment but the best he can get is a SB loan?????

[UpInArms]

69. that's the one!

Being a small business owner myself, there is nowhere that would count me - I am not eligible for unemployment compensation - I could go to an employment agency and seek employment, but that would not be captured in this data stream.

Loans are great :eyes: but they definitely are not "income".

[AnneD]

90. Is it really worth it..

when you weigh it out....just curious. My aim is to be one of those self employed independents....

[UpInArms]

93. I have a much more flexible schedule

and a much less flexible budget.

Do I want to go back to 70-80 hour workweeks?

Not a chance in the world.

I still work hard, but I can at least choose how hard I take it.

[AnneD]

135. That seems to be the main draw...

That is why I chose school nursing over hospital nursing...it was a more realistic schedual. I have a little more time before I can take and early retirement. Hubby can retire earlier in 5 years. He is a muscian so he can do that full time in retirement. I want to open my own business-starting before I take the early retirement. I will be able to collect my pension (my safety net)and work out of my house...what a deal. I like the working retirement deal....esp if it is something I enjoy.

[ozymandius]

21. Sept retail sales climb 0.9 pct -report

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. retail sales rose in September on strong demand for clothes and building materials, suggesting that consumer spending rebounded after Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, according to a report released on Thursday.

Retail spending, excluding car sales, totaled $276 billion in September on a seasonally adjusted basis, up 0.9 percent from August and a jump of 8.9 percent from a year ago, according to SpendingPulse, a data service provided by MasterCard Advisrs, an arm of MasterCard International.

The U.S. south-central region, which encompasses areas hammered by Katrina and Rita, saw a non-seasonally adjusted sales gain of 9.6 percent in September. The region did experience moderate sales declines on clothes, restaurants and home furnishings.

more

[UpInArms]

49. DOE Inventory Report

10:31am 10/13/05 U.S. CRUDE STKS UP 1 MLN BRLS LAST WK: ENERGY DEPT

10:31am 10/13/05 U.S. GASOLINE STKS DOWN 2.7 MLN BRLS: ENERGY DEPT

10:31am 10/13/05 U.S. DISTILLATE STKS DOWN 3.4 MLN BRLS: ENERGY DEPT

[UpInArms]

53. API Inventory Report (huge variance with DOE?)

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38638.4450764236-845839125&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- The American Petroleum Institute said crude inventories climbed by 7.2 million barrels for the week ended Oct. 7. The government data showed only a 1 million-barrel rise. Motor gasoline inventories fell 2.8 million barrels. Distillate stocks were down 3 million barrels, the API said.

[UpInArms]

63. DOE NatGas Stocks report

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?siteid=mktw&guid=%7B4C33A5B3-95CF-4D1B-8D89-237180E41E29%7D&

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- U.S. natural-gas stocks rose by 58 billion cubic feet for the week ended Oct. 7, the Energy Department reports Thursday. Analysts at Wachovia expected a rise of 51 billion. Total stocks now stand at 2.987 trillion cubic feet, down 162 billion cubic feet from the year-ago level, but up 34 billion cubic feet from the five-year average, the government data said. November natural gas is down 20.4 cents, or 1.5%, at $13.32 per million British thermal units in New York.

[54anickel]

75. Update 10: Oil Prices Fall on Rising Crude Stocks

http://www.forbes.com/entrepreneurs/feeds/ap/2005/10/13/ap2275730.html

Oil prices slipped Thursday after the Department of Energy reported that crude-oil inventories rose last week.

Crude-oil inventories climbed 1 million barrels to 306.4 million barrels in the week ending Oct. 7 from a week earlier, according to a weekly report from the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration. Crude stocks remain about 11 percent higher than they were a year ago.

snip>

The contract had risen a day earlier on the Energy Department's forecast of a 1.9 million barrel-a-day increase in demand next year, along with predictions that benchmark crude prices would average around $64 to $65 a barrel in 2006. The agency also said American households would pay 32 percent to 48 percent more to heat their homes during the upcoming winter.

But Thursday's report from the EIA reflected low U.S. demand for gasoline - motor gasoline demand averaged 8.8 million barrels a day, 2.4 percent below the same period last year.

snip>

The EIA predicted that only 3 percent of Gulf Coast production, or around 560,000 barrels per day, would remain off-line by November.


more...

[ozymandius]

5. Buy or bye

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Stocks were looking for direction early Thursday ahead of a closely watched report on U.S. fuel inventories.

U.S. stock futures were up in early trading, although a comparison to fair value indicated a flat to slightly lower opening for stocks,

Oil prices were also essentially flat ahead of the weekly inventory report at 10:30 a.m. ET, which is a day later than normal this week due to the Columbus Day holiday.

-cut-

Economic reports Thursday include the reading on the U.S. trade deficit for August. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com forecast the gap between the nation's imports and exports rose to $59.5 billion from $57.9 billion in July on higher oil prices.

more...

http://money.cnn.com/2005/10/13/markets/stockswatch/index.htm

[ozymandius]

6. Mortgages: Bracing for 6%

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - 30-year mortgage rates look set to rise above 6 percent for the first time since July 2004, potentially helping set the stage for a slowdown in home sales.

Freddie Mac reported last week that the average rate on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages rose to 5.98 percent. (Full story)

-cut-

The average annual rate in the 1990s was 8.12 percent. In the 1980s, the rate averaged a whopping 12.70 percent, getting as high as 18.45 percent in inflation-ridden October 1981. The high 30-year rate of the early 1980s contributed to abysmal home sales rates in those years.

Real estate's unprecedented tear -- the past four-and-a-half years all set new records for existing-home sales -- has been facilitated by easy credit, but that era may be on its way out.

more...

http://money.cnn.com/2005/10/11/real_estate/mortgage_rates/index.htm

[UpInArms]

62. Freddie Mac: 30-year mortgage averages 6.03% vs 5.98%

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38638.4651727083-845844052&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- The benchmark 30-year fixed-rate mortgage average was up in the week ending Thursday, rising to 6.03% from 5.98% a week ago, said Freddie Mac (FRE) . The mortgage agency said its weekly survey also showed a rise in the 15-year loan, to 5.62% from 5.54%, and the one-year Treasury-indexed adjustable rate, to 4.85% from 4.77%. The five-year hybrid ARM also rose, to 5.57% from 5.48%. "In spite of the job losses caused by Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, the employment report was better than had been expected," said Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac chief economist, in a statement. "This indicates that economic growth is likely to accelerate in 2006. That acceleration of growth, coupled with the specter of higher energy costs, will translate into higher long-term mortgage rates in the coming months."

[UpInArms]

7. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 89.94 Change +0.31 (+0.35%)

Tomorrow's Economic Release Alerts: U.S. Trade Balance In Wake Of Katrina

http://www.dailyfx.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=4165&Itemid=39

US Trade Balance (AUG) (12:30 GMT, 08:30 EDT)
Consensus: -$59.5B
Previous: -$57.9B

Outlook: The US trade deficit is expected to have expanded to the second largest level in history in August. A consensus among economists holds the bloated deficit at $59.5 billion as prices for imported oil supplements increased domestic demand for foreign goods. Imports for the past year have more or less been dominated by demand for crude oil. The price for imported crude rose 7.1 percent for the month of August as worries of escalating demand falls short of dwindling supplies. Further, demand for imports has remained buoyed among citizens as the pace of growth outstrips its biggest trading partners. Growth for world’s largest economy is on track to expand 3.5 percent for the year, while expected expansion in Japan holds at 2.0 percent and 1.3 percent for the 12 nations sharing the euro. With expectations of the deficit widening to such a level in August, it does not bode well for the balance of goods and services for the following month. The effects of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita are likely to have pushed the balance even further in favor of imports. Besides pushing crude prices to record highs, demand for imported raw materials and crude jumped, the latter due to stunted production capabilities. Estimates already suggest deficits in the three months ending with September will have eroded 0.4 percentage points from third quarter growth.

Previous: The balance of goods and services unexpectedly narrowed to a $57.9 billion deficit for the month of July as exports rose to record levels to stave off steadily stronger imports. Exports rose 0.4 percent to $106 billion on a 0.7 percent rise in capital goods and a 2 percent rise in industrial supplies, while imports contracted 0.7 percent paced by a 15.7 percent decline in pharmaceuticals and a 7.6 percent drop in apparel. Deficits with most of the U.S.’s major trading partners remained intact, however, despite the positive shift for exports. Import favored balances with Canada and Europe actually grew over the period. Demand for U.S. goods in Europe has waned over the past few months as economic fallout from the rejection of the French referendum in late May. Posing more of a problem for the U.S. was the deficit in trade with Canada which rose nearly 15 percent for the month. Imports of raw materials and oil have dominated trade with the neighbor to the north. Crude imports account for 64 percent of the total, while prices averaged $49.03 per barrel over the period. Also of note was the continuing imbalance of trade with China. Although exports to the behemoth rose to a record in July, a fixed exchange rate has done well to benefit the continuously growing economy.


US Import Price Index (MoM) (SEP) (12:30 GMT, 08:30 EDT)
Consensus: 1.0%
Previous: 1.3%

Outlook: Import prices are expected to have slowed their pace of growth last month to 1.0 percent despite U.S. consumer prices rising to their highest level in over 14 years. The index for the average price level of foreign goods is likely to take its cue from crude oil prices that soared to record. The price per barrel of crude on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose to $70.80 just prior to the beginning of the month and spent the remainder above $60. Petroleum products received their boost after Hurricane Katrina struck the gulf coast in late August, effectively shutting down a hefty portion of the U.S.’s domestic refinery capacity. Another contributor to inflated prices likely came from an unfavorable exchange rate. The dollar dropped significantly against the major currencies in the first half of September, making purchases of foreign goods more expensive. With all the factors measured, any surprise in the indicator will likely find itself on the higher side of the consensus.

Previous: Prices for U.S. purchases of foreign goods jumped 1.3 percent in August, the largest increase in five months, following a downwardly revised 0.8 percent increase in the month before. Energy products once again drug the overall indicator higher for the period. If measured excluding energy prices, import prices had actually fallen the previous four months. Crude oil peaked to a historical high on August 30th as estimates of damage to the U.S.’s production capacity remained uncertain. Prices for all imported goods were 7.6 percent higher for the month, but excluding petroleum, prices were only 1.8 percent higher to mark the smallest annual gain since March.

...more...

U.S. rate outlook lifts dollar, bond yields

http://today.reuters.com/PrinterFriendlyPopup.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=uri:2005-10-13T092954Z_01_L13257896_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-GLOBAL-UPDATE-3.XML

LONDON, Oct 13 (Reuters) - The dollar struck a 17-month high against the yen and U.S. government bond yields held near six-month highs on Thursday as investors bet rising price pressures would keep U.S. interest rates on an upward path.

Inflation concerns also supported precious metals prices with platinum hitting its highest level in more than 25 years and gold holding just below this week's 18-year highs.

The latest reminder that interest rates are bound to rise came from Federal Reserve Board Governor Mark Olson who said lofty energy costs increased the risk that broader inflation pressures would take hold.

The comments had resonance since they came from the only policymaker who voted against the central bank's latest move to tighten monetary policy.

"The market is not only worried about inflation but what the Fed will do with interest rates," said Stephen Lewis, chief economist at Monument Derivatives.

"These concerns are affecting Treasuries and boosting precious metals prices."

...more...

[54anickel]

50. WTF is the buck doing way up there? 90.33

Last trade 90.33 Change +0.70 (+0.78%)

Settle 89.63 Settle Time 23:36

Open 89.93 Previous Close 89.63

High 90.33 Low 89.61


Do you suppose Ackerman was onto something in that article the other day where cash becomes king in a deflation? It didn't jive in my brain when I first read it since I'm in that worth-less US$ mindset. Now I've got something else to ponder. Do Snow and Greenspin see this coming? Is that why they're on China again to revalue? Will it be credit that becomes worthless rather than the buck? Damn, my head hurts. :freak:


http://www.prudentbear.com/archive_comm_article.asp?category=Guest+Commentary&content_idx=47467

snip>

So how, then, will this manifestly worthless cash become “king,” as the textbooks say cash must in a deflation? Actually, the textbooks will have to add a new chapter, since this will be the first time in history that debt deflation will have occurred in a world drowning in bogus money. Some would argue that it is a case of the irresistible force meeting the immovable object – i.e., that the existence of one precludes the other. But if you wipe out all of the credit money and run the economy on cash alone – which is what I believe will happen – cash money will become sufficiently scarce to rival gold in purchasing power.

Waking Up Broke


Whatever happens, gold bugs are unlikely to bear the full brunt of a deflation. As I have implied above, they will possess an asset that probably can do no worse than hold its purchasing power. But if the global economy plummets into darkness, don’t expect a few ingots and doubloons to finance a retirement in Switzerland.


My reservations about gold are rooted in the fear that we will experience an actual plunge, rather than a gradual slide, into economic winter. I used the word “precipitous,” and I meant it quite literally. To put it as bluntly as I can, I believe there is a more-than-negligible chance that we will awaken one morning to a financial cataclysm that has left us all flat broke – meaning, for one, bereft of liquid savings that could conceivably be exchanged for bullion.


It might take a few months to fathom the extent of the damage, and years for securities markets and real estate valuations to fully reflect it, but it will nonetheless come to pass if deflation implodes the financial system. Securities markets will be frozen in place while the bean counters attempt to sort out the mess. Ultimately they will fail in this task, since re-sequencing debt maturities so that everyone gets paid in due time will be like trying to retrofit the lower floors of the Trade Towers while the buildings were ablaze.

snip>

For now, deflation’s overwhelming power will remain submerged until the dollar’s climb begins to accelerate. When that happens, the burden of debt for all who owe dollars will increase commensurately. Few could want this outcome, but it is all but unavoidable – a manifestation of Murphy’s Law in a world that cannot afford to pay back what it owes with dollars that come any dearer than they are now.

more...

[mojavekid]

73. A fascinating read 54anickel,

and definitely food for thought, thanks for posting yesterday and today. I thought the same thing when I saw the buck this am....

I can't imagine the world choosing the buck over the yellow stuff, yet...


***edited for lousy spelling...

[54anickel]

82. Hi Mojavekid! Good to "see" you again. Yep, it's a totally different

mindset and I'm not sure what to make of it. But, let's face it, we've never been here before. Anything is possible and his explanation does seem somewhat plausible.

Just think of what the reprecussions of Chopper Ben's remedy for deflation might be if this were to happen. What a cluster-f*ck!! Makes my head hurt even more trying to figure out that one.

[mojavekid]

141. No kidding, I think i'll go sit somewhere quietly,

while I work this out...!

In the meantime a few articles stolen off the Kitco site regarding countries adding to their gold reserves:

http://www.interfax.ru/e/B/0/26.html?menu=2&id_issue=11406366
Belarussian gold, forex reserves soar 45.5% in 9 mths

http://www.interfax.ru/e/B/0/26.html?menu=2&id_issue=11405993
Russia's gold, forex reserves up to $162.9 bln on October 7

and...
http://today.reuters.com/news/newsArticleSearch.aspx?storyID=221285+13-Oct-2005+RTRS&srch=gold
ANALYSIS-Gold gains kudos as alternative to major currencies

I like this part:

"Gold is hoarded by institutions and banks even while they say it has no monetary value, which means they are talking out of both sides of their mouths," Kotok said

[54anickel]

66. U.S. Investment Income Close to `Tipping Point' (Uh-oh)

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000039&refer=columnist_berry&sid=a3_fwP85dZzM

Oct. 13 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. may be approaching a dangerous ``tipping point'' in its international transactions.

At the end of last year, foreign investments in the U.S. were worth $2.5 trillion more than this country's investments in the rest of the world. Yet last year, those U.S. assets abroad remarkably still earned $30 billion more than the foreign assets here.

That stunning disparity in returns is one of many reasons why the huge U.S. current account deficits of recent years have been so readily financed. The sagging net investment position wasn't being compounded by an ever higher interest bill -- as is the case with the mounting U.S. government debt.

This year the game has changed.

Net U.S. investment income turned negative by $455 million dollars in the second quarter, marking a swift deterioration from a $15 billion surplus in the first three months of 2004.

more on the buck's credibility...

[54anickel]

72. Gold retreats as much as $4 an ounce

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?siteid=bigcharts&dist=news&guid=%7BFFC0D4B7%2D0F5E%2D4017%2D8913%2DCE1B8938FD16%7D

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures prices fell as much as $4 an ounce Thursday, extending declines from the previous session as strength in the U.S. dollar dulled interest in the precious metal.

"The decline in weekly jobless claims, combined with the higher price component in import prices, confirmed the Fed will remain vigilant on raising rates throughout 2005," said John Person, president of National Futures Advisory Service. See Economic Reports.

snip>

Insecurity is key

All in all, however, gold isn't really a dollar-correlation story any longer but is "more a matter of general insecurity," said Frederic Panizzutti, an analyst at MKS Finance in Geneva.

"The world is certainly more worried in 2005 then it was before 2001, and this for various reasons," he said, citing the risk of terrorist threats, high oil prices, and the economic impact from hurricanes.

"In the past, the U.S. dollar would have been considered as an appropriate safe heaven, but most of the actual concerns mentioned here could have a negative or, say, less positive impact on the U.S. economy and ," he said.

more...

[UpInArms]

91. Low expectations seen for Snow's China visit

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B9C7B388D%2DDAF6%2D4320%2D9639%2D6F7BC15D2926%7D&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The anti-China lobby in Congress isn't even waiting for Treasury Secretary John Snow to meet with Chinese officials to complain that his visit to Beijing is a waste of time.

"We have low expectations for the trip and doubt anything will result," said David Hartquist, a spokesman for the China Currency Coalition at a press conference on Thursday.

The coalition -- a rare blend of manufacturing and textile trade associations and their unions -- held a press conference to press their demand for an immediate 40% appreciation of the yuan.

Snow is set to meet top Chinese leaders on Oct. 14 in Beijing.

The group believes that the low value of China's currency is allowing China to sell its goods in the U.S. at artificially cheap levels, eroding the U.S. manufacturing base and causing a steady loss of jobs.

They dismissed China's move in July to appreciate its currency by 2.1% as a cynical ploy to deflate pressure on the Bush administration coming from Congress and the currency coalition.

<snip>

"Time and again, the Bush administration has announced it has a better way to solve this trade crisis. Yet the beginning and end of this solution appears to be yet another trip to China by Treasury Secretary Snow, and more rhetoric from both governments, with little action," Trumka said.

...more...

[54anickel]

96. Oh my, that coalition is indeed a rare blend. Seems the Central Bankers

of the IMF (the Plutocracy) have pissed off their subjects and they are now attempting to join forces and want their grievances taken to the WTO?

The coalition is pushing legislation currently languishing in the House that would change laws to allow the U.S. to bring currency manipulation under the World Trade Organization.

At the moment, currency manipulation falls only under the jurisdiction of the International Monetary Fund.

[54anickel]

111. China understating trade surplus, study says

http://today.reuters.com/investing/FinanceArticle.aspx?type=economicNews&storyID=URI:urn:newsml:reuters.com:20051013:MTFH16411_2005-10-13_17-34-05_N13640319:1

WASHINGTON, Oct 13 (Reuters) - Trade statistics from the European Union, Japan, the United States and other countries show that China understated its trade surplus by nearly $233 billion in 2004, a private sector study said on Thursday.

The report will give ammunition to U.S. steel, textile and other industry groups seeking to persuade the Bush administration and Congress to take tougher action as they try to force China to revalue its currency, the yuan, upward by as much as 40 percent.

The U.S. Commerce Department released its own data on Thursday showing the U.S. trade deficit with China hit a record $22.4 billion in August. The gap for the first eight months of the year totaled nearly $153 billion, not far from the record of $162 billion set for all 2004.

Pat MaGrath, director of Georgetown Economics Services, said his firm looked at trade data for 40 countries that account more than 90 percent of China's trade.

The examination revealed a big discrepancy between what those countries said they imported from China and what China said it exported to them, MaGrath told a news conference arranged by the China Currency Coalition, which includes many labor and industry groups.

more...

[sweepster]

120. Buch & Corporations are in bed with the Chinese/waste of aviation fuel

Corporations want that cheap labor and supply the RNC with mucho dollars.

Waste of aviation fuel.

[UpInArms]

121. Welcome to DU sweepster!

Glad to have you drop in to the SMW!

:hi:

[UpInArms]

8. Can Refco Get Off the Ropes?

http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/oct2005/nf20051012_2543_db035.htm

The reign of Phillip R. Bennett as CEO of commodities titan Refco (RFX ) has ended with a lightning bolt that has rattled the commodities markets and could threaten the firm's future, some analysts say. On Oct. 12, federal prosecutors accused Bennett of a massive securities fraud, charging him with a scheme to hide a debt of as much as $545 million that he allegedly tried to keep secret from investors in the lead-up to an August initial public offering.

<snip>

REPEATED TRANSFER. A source close to the probe says the debt, dating from 1997 or 1998, appears to have been moved from affiliate to affiliate like a "tennis ball" every quarter for several years. Grant Thornton, which took over auditing duties at Refco from defunct Arthur Andersen three years ago, said in an Oct. 11 statement that the debt was "hidden" at the end of each quarter by transfers from a company controlled by Bennett to a third-party customer account. Federal prosecutors contend that Bennett intended to keep the asset hidden from auditors, regulators, and investors.

More bad news for Refco could follow. Investigators are also looking into whether Bennett worked with at least one other high-ranking former executive at Refco, along with Liberty Corner, sources say. In addition to Bennett, Refco's board also asked a colleague of his at the firm -- brokerage Chief Executive Santo C. Maggio -- to take a leave. Efforts to reach Maggio for this story were unsuccessful.

Investigators are exploring whether the repeated transfer of the massive debt from ledger to ledger was meant to make Refco's financial picture look brighter than it actually was before Refco's August IPO. They're also probing whether the company paid an outside party to provide confirmations of transactions to mislead auditors and whether an insider made false journal entries about the transfers.

...more...

[UpInArms]

9. Following Refco's Bouncing Debt

http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/oct2005/nf20051012_5004.htm

Federal and in-house auditors are investigating whether Phillip Bennett, the ousted CEO of giant commodities trader Refco (RFX ), may have tried to conceal $430 million in trading losses by repeatedly shifting the debt among Refco affiliates and at least one outside firm, BusinessWeek Online has learned.

<snip>

OBSCURE ORIGIN. Repeated efforts to contact Bennett for this story were unsuccessful. A call to his home in New Jersey was not returned, and his legal counsel, Jack Weinberg, did not return calls for comment for this article.

CEO since 1998 (he joined Refco in 1981), Bennett took an open-ended leave of absence from the company this week after Refco announced it had uncovered the questionable debt. It also warned that it would have to delay its latest quarterly earnings report until it reviews all its financial statements going back to at least 2002.

After the IPO, Bennett was actually able to pay off the debt. He pledged his holdings in Refco stock to a bank in exchange for a loan that he used to pay off the obligation, having received substantial payments both from the August IPO and from the sale of a majority stake in Refco to private-equity firm Thomas H. Lee Partners in 2004, according to Securities & Exchange Commission filings. Thomas H. Lee Partners declined to comment for this article.

The origin of the bouncing debt still appears murky. However, the source close to the investigation says it appears to be related to Asian trading losses. Bennett's connection to the loss, if any, is also unclear.

...more...

[UpInArms]

12. Former Refco CEO Leaves Jail on $50M Bond

http://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory?id=1208680

excerpt:

In court, Assistant U.S. Attorney David Esseks fought bail, calling Bennett a flight risk, a British citizen with a half billion dollars in assets who told a colleague in a tape conversation Monday that he was going to Europe within two days.

U.S. Magistrate Judge Douglas F. Eaton granted bail, saying he could go free Wednesday after pledging a Manhattan apartment and his New Jersey home as collateral and agreeing to electronic monitoring, a $50 million bond with $5 million in cash.

Esseks said prosecutors had developed a "straightforward and truly extraordinary case" that involved a "staggering" loss of money for investors.

But defense attorney Gary P. Naftalis said "there's no case here." He said his client had already pledged his shares in Refco to secure a bank loan that repaid the $430 million loan with interest on Monday.

"He received no personal profits from this," Naftalis said.

The lawyer said prosecutors rushed their case. He noted that Esseks acknowledged he did not know Bennett had pledged all of his Refco stock to secure the loan.

...more...

:rofl:

No profits???? Then how in the world did this guy just happen to come up with the $430 Million in one day? and How in the World did he manage to come up with $50 Million Bond in ONE Day????

:rofl:

Okay. Let's not call them "profits" - let's call them someone else's losses!

[UpInArms]

18. Refco's Bennett Called Flight Risk

http://www.thestreet.com/_googlen/markets/matthewgoldstein/10247104.html?cm_ven=GOOGLEN&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA

Phillip Bennett, the ousted Refco (RFX:NYSE - commentary - research - Cramer's Take) CEO accused in a criminal plot that has devastated his derivatives brokerage, was free on bail Thursday after prosecutors warned a judge he is a flight risk.

With lightning speed, federal prosecutors arrested Bennett and charged him Wednesday with orchestrating a brazen scheme to paper over hundreds of millions of dollars in sour debts at the New York company, which sold a $583 million initial offering to the public just two months ago.

Bennett put up $5 million in cash bail himself and was reportedly ordered to find five cosigners for a $50 million bond. Government lawyers say Bennett was recorded telling a friend he planned to travel to Austria this week, a claim his attorney said was misrepresented in court.

<snip>

Refco has said Bennett paid the money back with interest, reportedly by pledging stock as collateral for a bank loan. But the damage to the newly public company's credibility has been huge, prompting credit downgrades and a three-day rout that cut the value of Refco's stock by two-thirds, erasing $2 billion in market cap. After closing at $28.56 last Friday, Refco finished Wednesday at $10.85, down another 22%.

<snip>

Much of the six-page complaint focuses on a $300 million transaction that occurred in February, a few months before Refco filed for its initial offering. In the transaction, Refco loaned a customer $335 million, which was supposed to be repaid on March 8. That customer allegedly then turned around and loaned Bennett's Refco Group Holdings $335 million, charging Bennett a higher interest rate than it was paying Refco.

Bennett allegedly then used that $335 million to pay off his existing debt to Refco. Prosecutors say "the result of these transactions was to substitute" one debt for the other.

...more...

[UpInArms]

30. More Refco Victims

http://www.forbes.com/work/2005/10/12/refco-victims-goldman-cx_lm_0113refco.html

NEW YORK - As the Refco affair continues to unravel, Wall Street will likely be the target of angry investors wanting their money back--so caveat emptor.

Goldman Sachs (nyse: GS - news - people ), Credit Suisse First Boston and Banc of America Securities each could be on the hook for more than $200 million in legal liabilities in the initial public offering of Refco stock.

These investment banks were the lead underwriters on Refco's Aug. 11 IPO. One of the hottest new issues of the summer, shares in the derivatives and commodities trading firm opened above their target range and surged 25% in the first trading session.

But now it appears that Refco's financial statements had some serious errors. On Wednesday, the U.S. Attorney in New York charged former CEO Phillip Bennett with securities fraud. Bennett took leave from the company Monday, amid accusations that he hid $430 million from investors. He paid that amount to the company the day he took leave.

<snip>

In recent years, banks have been held accountable for preparing securities issues for companies that ended up being found to have engaged in fraud. WorldCom's banks have forked over billions of dollars, including more than $2 billion each from Citigroup (nyse: C - news - people ) and JPMorgan Chase (nyse: JPM - news - people ). WorldCom, of course, crumbled into insolvency, after a massive $11 billion accounting fraud was uncovered. Its former chairman and chief executive, Bernard Ebbers, was sentenced to 25 years in a federal prison, though he is appealing the conviction.

...more...

[UpInArms]

128. GFI Group believes its exposure to Refco is insignificant

(soothing noises)

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38638.6532161458-845890760&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- GFI Group Inc. (GFIG) said Thursday it believes that its direct counterparty exposure to, and accounts receivable due from Refco Inc.'s (RFX) Refco LLC, Refco Securities LLC and Refco Capital Markets Limited are insignificant. The New York-based inter-dealer broker said it issued the statement in response to investor inquiries.

[UpInArms]

132. Refco scandal bad news for Thomas H. Lee Partners LP

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BB3D6939D%2DA717%2D4DD5%2DA34D%2D0861CC942B3A%7D&siteid=mktw

BOSTON (MarketWatch) - Thomas H. Lee Partners LP, the Boston-based buyout firm that made a bundle on Snapple, may have lost hundreds of millions of dollars on its investment in embattled futures broker Refco Inc.

Shares of Refco(RFX: news, chart, profile) fell as much as 27% Thursday before the New York Stock Exchange halted trading. Refco's ousted Chief Executive Phillip Bennett was arrested Wednesday and charged with securities fraud for his alleged role in a plan to dupe investors in Refco's August initial public offering.

The buyout firm, referred to by Hoover's Inc. as "the teddy bear at the gate" because it pursues companies that want to be pursued, in 2004 acquired a "major" ownership stake in Refco. Although financial terms of the deal weren't disclosed, the transaction valued the company at about $2.25 billion, according to a Refco release in June 2004.

An August Securities and Exchange Commission filing showed Thomas H. Lee held about 49 million Refco shares. The shares, which went public at $22 per share, traded at $7.90 Thursday before they where halted.

<snip>

Geoff Bobroff, a mutual fund industry consultant based in East Greenwich, Rhode Island, said Lee is "a very large deal in the private-equity world," and the Refco scandal comes at an "awkward" time for him given that his firm is reportedly trying to raise some $7.5 billion for a new fund.

...more...

[UpInArms]

43. Refco shares plummet again

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38638.4076920602-845829935&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Shares of embattled futures broker Refco Inc (REF) fell as much as 27% Thursday as investors grew wary of what new revelations might emerge from accounting problems at the firm following its former CEO's indictment. Refco recently traded at $7.90, down 27% or $2.95. In the broader financial sector, the Amex Securities Broker/Dealer Index ($XBD) slipped 0.3%, the Philadelphia Bank Sector Index ($BKX) was flat and the S&P Insurance Index (IUX) fell posted a modest gain, rising about 0.1%.

[UpInArms]

56. Trading in Refco shares is halted pending news

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-10-13T140213Z_01_N13378126_RTRIDST_0_FINANCIAL-REFCO-UPDATE-1.XML

NEW YORK, Oct 13 (Reuters) - Trading in shares of futures and commodities broker Refco Inc. (RFX.N: Quote, Profile, Research) was halted pending news on Thursday, a day after the company's former chief executive was charged with securities fraud.

The shares fell for a fourth straight day in premarket trading, down 26 percent.

The federal prosecutor for the Southern District of New York charged former CEO Phillip Bennett with securities fraud over hundreds of millions of dollars owed to the company by an entity he controlled.

Refco representatives could not be immediately reached for comment on the trading halt and pending news release.

Refco shares closed at $10.85 on the New York Stock Exchange on Wednesday and fell $2.85 to $8 in premarket trading on the Inet electronic trading network Thursday morning.

When Refco went public two months ago and raised $583 million, Bennett and "others known and unknown" concealed related party transactions between Refco and the other company, according to prosecutors. This made Refco look stronger than it was during its initial public offering.

...more...

[UpInArms]

64. Moratorium declared - insufficient liquidity

11:38am 10/13/05 REFCO IMPOSES 15-DAY MORATORIUM AT REFCO CAPITAL MARKETS

11:39am 10/13/05 REFCO: REFCO CAPITAL MORATORIUM IS TO PROTECT VALUE

11:36am 10/13/05 REFCO REAFFIRMS REGULATORY CAPITAL AT REFCO LLC

11:37am 10/13/05 REFCO REAFFIRMS REGULATORY CAPITAL AT REFCO SECURITIES LLC

11:35am 10/13/05 REFCO RETAIN GOLDMAN, SACHS & CO AS FINANCIAL ADVISER

11:34am 10/13/05 REFCO HIRES FMR SEC CHAIR ARTHUR LEAVITT AS SPECIAL ADVISER

11:35am 10/13/05 REFCO HIRES FRMR COMPTROLLER OF CURRENCY LUDWIG AS ADVISER

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38638.4978354514-845852176&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Refco Inc. (RFX) said Thursday it has imposed a 15-day moratorium on all activities at its non-regulated subsidiary Refco Capital Markets Ltd. because liquidity is no longer sufficient to continue operations. Refco said the unit represents a material portion of its business. The futures broker said it has hired Arthur Levitt, former chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission and chairman of the American Stock Exchange, and Eugene Ludwig, former U.S. Comptroller of the Currency and current chief executive at Promontory Financial Group LLC, as special advisers to its board. Promontory has also been retained as an adviser, and Goldman, Sachs & Co. (GS) has been hired as Refco's financial adviser.

[54anickel]

84. Man, wouldn't you just hate to be a shareholder right about now? Stuck

with a worthless collection of electronic bits and bytes that you once believed was "wealth". Nothing there, not even a worthless certificate to hang on the wall as a momento. Just vanished into thin air - you can't even sell it at a loss to salvage a fraction of that "wealth".

[UpInArms]

86. electronic "Enronization"? ................eom

[UpInArms]

110. Refco subsidiary freezes customer accounts

http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D8D78Q6O0.htm?campaign_id=apn_home_down&chan=db

OCT. 13 12:36 P.M. ET Refco Inc., the commodities broker mired in an accounting scandal in which its chief executive hid bad debts from shareholders and regulators, said Thursday it will freeze customers' accounts in one of its subsidiaries for 15 days because it may not have enough cash on hand to operate normally.

<snip>

In a statement, Refco said it would put a 15-day moratorium on all transactions -- effectively preventing customers from withdrawing money from their accounts -- "to protect the value of the enterprise."

A spokesman for Refco did not immediately know how many accounts or how much money would be frozen.

<snip>

The company has said that its earnings reports dating back to 2002 are unreliable.

...more...

[54anickel]

112. Oh man, I had a feeling this was going to get real stinky earlier this

week when it first came up, just a gut feeling from those initial searches on the company. A few more of these fishy hedge funds and there could be some serious breakdown in confidence again.


Another Fishy Hedge Fund
http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/oct2005/nf20051013_0910_db016.htm

[UpInArms]

115. how many more "Bayou Funds" are out there?

from your link:

Investors in Wood River's funds apparently didn't know much about Whittier, either. The ex-stock analyst at investment bank Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette presented himself as a savvy stock trader overseeing hundreds of millions of dollars for investors. Marketing materials for his flagship fund trumpet 25% returns in the first eight months of this year, a period when the stock market was basically flat.

WARNING SIGNS. But some investors got nervous and tried -- unsuccessfully -- to get their money back late last month when Whittier's big bet on an obscure Silicon Valley stock slumped badly, say investors' lawyers. The firm stopped answering its phone. Last week, Wood River's offices in downtown Ketchum were locked and apparently unoccupied. FedEx packages piled up outside next to strollers and a red wagon left by Whittier's two young children.

Wood River is now the subject of a preliminary investigation by the Securities & Exchange Commission -- the latest hedge-fund scandal that is sure to intensify calls for greater government oversight of these lightly regulated investment pools. Only two weeks ago the founders of collapsed Bayou Management, a hedge fund in Stamford, Conn., pled guilty to criminal fraud.

As in the Bayou affair, Wood River presented red flags that careful investors should have noticed. The firms Wood River's promoters named as its outside auditor and bookkeeper, for example, say flatly that they didn't provide those services to the hedge fund. Morgan Stanley (MWD ), listed in April as one of the hedge fund's two prime brokers, in fact was not, according to a person familiar with the matter.

...more...

[54anickel]

127. Heh, oh yeah!!! What were those terms of endearment Greenspin had

for hedge funds just a couple of years ago when people were question the wisdom of such "tools"?

[UpInArms]

129. how about his speech in Chicago in May 2005?

http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2005/20050505/default.htm

Remarks by Chairman Alan Greenspan
Risk Transfer and Financial Stability
To the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago's Forty-first Annual Conference on
Bank Structure, Chicago, Illinois
(via satellite)
May 5, 2005

Chicago is the birthplace of modern financial derivatives markets. So this conference seems an appropriate place in which to reflect once more on the prodigious growth of these risk-transfer instruments and their implications for financial stability. Two years ago at this conference I argued that the growing array of derivatives and the related application of more-sophisticated methods for measuring and managing risks had been key factors underlying the remarkable resilience of the banking system, which had recently shrugged off severe shocks to the economy and the financial system. At the same time, I indicated some concerns about the risks associated with derivatives, including the risks posed by concentration in certain derivatives markets, notably the over-the-counter (OTC) markets for U.S. dollar interest rate options. Today I will pursue those concerns about concentration in greater depth, drawing on discussions that Federal Reserve staff have had with market participants. I will also address concerns that some observers have expressed about the use of credit derivatives to transfer risk outside the banking system and about the growing role of hedge funds in bearing risk in derivatives markets and the financial system generally.

Derivatives: Potential Benefits and Risk-Management Challenges
Perhaps the clearest evidence of the perceived benefits that derivatives have provided is their continued spectacular growth. As a consequence of the increasing demand for these products, the size of the global OTC derivatives markets, according to the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), reached a notional principal value of $220 trillion in June 2004. Indeed, the growth rate of the OTC markets was more rapid in 2001-04 than over the previous three years. At the same time, the growth rate of exchange-traded derivatives exceeded the growth rate of OTC derivatives over 2001-04. Throughout the 1990s, the Chicago futures and options exchanges debated whether the growth of the OTC markets was good or bad for their markets. The data seem to have resolved that debate. In the United States, the Commodity Futures Modernization Act of 2000 has permitted healthy competition between the exchanges and the OTC markets, and both sets of markets are reaping the benefits.

The benefits are not limited to those that use derivatives. The use of a growing array of derivatives and the related application of more-sophisticated approaches to measuring and managing risk are key factors underpinning the greater resilience of our largest financial institutions, which was so evident during the credit cycle of 2001-02 and which seems to have persisted. Derivatives have permitted the unbundling of financial risks. Because risks can be unbundled, individual financial instruments now can be analyzed in terms of their common underlying risk factors, and risks can be managed on a portfolio basis. Partly because of the proposed Basel II capital requirements, the sophisticated risk-management approaches that derivatives have facilitated are being employed more widely and systematically in the banking and financial services industries.

To be sure, the benefits of derivatives, both to individual institutions and to the financial system and the economy as a whole, could be diminished, and financial instability could result, if the risks associated with their use are not managed effectively. Of particular importance is the management of counterparty credit risks. Risk transfer through derivatives is effective only if the parties to whom risk is transferred can perform their contractual obligations. These parties include both derivatives dealers that act as intermediaries in these markets and hedge funds and other nonbank financial entities that increasingly are the ultimate bearers of risk.

...more...

[54anickel]

134. Heh-heh, I suppose that's what now gives us our "flexibility" Greenspin's

been spouting this week.

[54anickel]

133. Sounds like the beginning of another game of Whack-a-Mole

The ballooning of the hedge-fund business has brought more SEC enforcement, but the number of cases is still modest given the size of the industry. Over the past five years the number of hedge funds has doubled, to more than 8,000, and the assets they manage have likewise doubled, to $1 trillion, according to Hedge Fund Research in Chicago. During the same period, the number of SEC cases against hedge funds has risen from two in 2000 to 19 last year. There have been 15 so far in 2005.

A new SEC rule goes into effect in February that requires hedge-fund managers to register with the agency. But even advocates of regulation concede that mere registration won't do much to deter fraud, and skeptics in the industry warn that it could give some investors the false sense that they don't have to do their own homework. SEC Commissioner Paul Atkins, a Republican who opposed the new rule, said in a speech in New York last month that the agency has "neither the resources nor the expertise to oversee all of the potential new registrants."

[UpInArms]

116. worked as a "Republican political aide"?

:wtf:

A 69-year-old retired insurance executive in North Carolina says he invested $1 million with Wood River this year based on the recommendation of two friends who know Whittier. The investor, who asked not to be named, says everything he heard about the money manager made him sound "like the kind of guy you'd want for a brother or a son." Whittier graduated from the University of California at Berkeley in 1989 and has said that he worked for two years as a Republican political aide before moving to the financial world.

[UpInArms]

100. Refco bonds plummet as liquidity concerns mount

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-10-13T175640Z_01_N13602306_RTRIDST_0_FINANCIAL-REFCO-BONDS-UPDATE-1.XML

NEW YORK, Oct 13 (Reuters) - Refco Inc.'s (RFX.N: Quote, Profile, Research) bonds plummeted 40 percentage points on Thursday, after the commodities and futures brokerage said the liquidity at a major company unit is no longer sufficient to continue operations.

Refco's 9 percent bond due 2012, which was issued from its Refco Finance Holdings LLC unit, fell to 33 cents on the dollar on Thursday, from 75.5 cents on Wednesday, according to MarketAxess.

The bond traded at 108.25 cents on the dollar on Friday, before the company's former chief executive officer was charged with securities fraud over hundreds of millions of dollars in transactions owed to the company by an entity he controlled.

Refco said in a statement on Thursday it would halt activities at its Refco Capital Markets unit -- a fixed-income, equities and foreign exchange brokerage that also lends securities and acts as a prime broker -- for 15 days to protect its value.

...more...

[UpInArms]

107. S&P says it has 'substantial doubt' about Refco liquidity

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38638.6012965625-845877553&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

SAN FRANCISCO (Marketwatch) -- Standard & Poor's Ratings Services on Thursday said it believes there is "substantial doubt" about the liquidity of Refco Inc. (RFX) . The agency said in a statement that "the company's operating subsidiaries either may not have sufficient liquidity or capital to upstream cash to Refco, or may be prohibited from doing so by regulators." In addition, S&P lowered its long-term counterparty credit rating on Refco unit Refco Group Ltd. LLC to B- from B+, and its subordinated debt rating to CCC from B-. The agency said the actions were in response to the company's announcement that it has placed a moratorium on withdrawals of customer funds from its Refco Capital Markets Ltd. unit.

[UpInArms]

118. REFCO 9% NOTE YIELDING 30.29%, WIDER BY 25.82 ON THE DAY

3:16pm 10/13/05 CME: REFCO LLC MUST SUBMIT WEEKLY CAPITAL COMPUTATIONS

3:16pm 10/13/05 CME: REFCO LLC CAN'T WITHDRAW CAPITAL WITHOUT PERMISSION

3:14pm 10/13/05 CHICAGO MERC: REFCO LLC REMAINS IN GOOD STANDING

3:15pm 10/13/05 REFCO 9% NOTE YIELDING 30.29%, WIDER BY 25.82 ON THE DAY

3:14pm 10/13/05 CHICAGO MERC: REFCO LLC STILL MEETS ALL MEMBER OBLIGATIONS

3:14pm 10/13/05 REFCO 9% NOTE DUE 2012 AT 40 CENTS ON DOLLAR VS. 77 CENTS

[54anickel]

137. Now there's a risk premium!!! Though I don't think I'd be fool enough to

take it. :evilgrin:

[UpInArms]

10. Scandals make hedge fund sleuthing pay off -experts

http://today.reuters.com/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=reutersEdge&storyID=2005-10-12T233121Z_01_DIT284598_RTRIDST_0_PICKS-FINANCIAL-FUND-HEDGES-DC.XML

BOSTON (Reuters) - Back-to-back hedge fund scandals are sending investors a frightening message: Spend a few thousand dollars now to sidestep a multimillion-dollar fraud later.

Lawyers and investigators said this week that the collapse of hedge fund Bayou Group and suspected fraud at hedge fund Wood River Partners likely will prompt investors to take more precautions before stepping into the fast-growing $1 trillion industry.

"The circle of who has gotten burned is getting bigger and the trend is that people will ask for more due diligence because they realize it pays to conduct these inquiries," said Peter Turecek, who manages the hedge fund business at Kroll, a New York-based security consulting firm.

Financial regulators are sorting out what went wrong at Bayou, where investors are said to have lost $300 million, and Wood River, which once said it was managing $500 million.

Investors and lawyers have not been able to reach Wood River in the last few days, and in a lawsuit filed by Lehman Brothers against Wood River, the Wall Street investment bank said that it suspected the hedge fund ceased operating. Wood River is under investigation by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

...more...

[UpInArms]

11. Tax Reform? Not Exactly

http://www.forbes.com/business/2005/10/12/taxes-economy-katrina-cz_jn_1012beltway.html

WASHINGTON, D.C. - President George W. Bush's Advisory Panel on Federal Tax Reform met publicly Tuesday to work on a report, now scheduled for a Nov. 1 release, that is sure to call for simplification of the U.S. tax code and the reduction or elimination of some tax breaks.

Meanwhile, Congress, when it returns from its Columbus Day recess next week, plans to resume work on a second package of new Hurricane Katrina-related tax breaks--a gumbo that could include everything from the Bush Administration's proposal for a new tax-favored "Gulf Opportunity" zone to more energy industry goodies.

"The tax reform agenda will be competing with the tax deform agenda,'' quips C. Eugene Steuerle, co-director of the Tax Policy Center, a senior fellow at the Urban Institute and a leader at the Treasury Department of the 1986 tax reform.

It's too soon to say whether reform will become a serious contender. In recent years, it's sure been on the ropes.

...more...

[UpInArms]

14. Agency Orders Frist to Give Documents on Sale of Stock

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/13/politics/13frist.html

WASHINGTON, Oct. 12 - The Securities and Exchange Commission has ordered Senator Bill Frist to provide documents to it as part of its investigation into his sale of stock in his family's hospital company.

People close to the inquiry said Mr. Frist, the Tennessee Republican who is Senate majority leader, was recently served with a commission subpoena for documents, which was believed to be the first such request of him. The sources, who asked to remain unidentified because of the confidential nature of the investigation, would not characterize the substantive nature of the documents being sought.

<snip>

The commission began looking into Mr. Frist's sale of stock in HCA Inc. late last month after news reports that the senator had ordered his trust to sell his remaining HCA holdings in June, about a month before the stock dropped 9 percent in a single day after a poor earnings report.

...more...

[UpInArms]

83. HCA Warns 3Q Profit Will Miss Estimates

Frist was so lucky to have sold all his HCA stock at just the right moment! :sarcasm:

http://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory?id=1209706

NASHVILLE, Tenn. Oct 13, 2005 — Hospital operator HCA Inc. warned Thursday that its third-quarter profit will miss Wall Street expectations because of costs related to the recent hurricanes and an asset impairment charge.

But HCA raised the low end of its outlook for the year and announced plans to buy back up to $2.5 billion worth of its stock.

<snip>

HCA has recently been in the spotlight as regulators probe Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist's decision to sell off shares of the company founded by his family shortly before the stock plunged in July.

The company, which will release its quarterly report on Oct. 25, said it expects earnings will range from 61 cents to 63 cents per share. That compares with the average estimate of 66 cents per share from analysts polled by Thomson Financial.

The quarterly results were impacted by expenses amounting to $33 million, or 5 cents per share, from hurricanes Katrina and Rita, as well as an impairment charge of 2 cents a share, HCA said. Those items were mostly offset by a 5-cent-per-share tax break from the repatriation of foreign earnings.

...more...

[ozymandius]

15. Stocks set for flat open before oil data

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stock futures pointed to little change at the market open on Thursday as a robust earnings outlook from McDonald's Corp. and takeover talk were tempered by investor caution about jobs figures and oil inventory data due later in the morning.

Dow component McDonald's preliminary third-quarter numbers topped Wall Street's expectations, pushing shares of the fast food chain up 1.4 percent after Wednesday's closing bell.

Media stocks will be in the spotlight after two sources said Web search engine Google Inc. and cable company Comcast Corp. are in discussions to buy a stake in Time Warner Inc.'s America Online, in a deal reportedly worth as much as $5 billion.

-cut-

Oil prices held above $64 ahead of the publication of weekly crude and gasoline stocks at 10:30 a.m. Analysts expected gasoline stocks to have fallen by 1.6 million barrels but crude levels were seen rising by 2.1 million barrels.

more

[UpInArms]

29. U.S. stock futures turn negative after data

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-10-13T124139Z_01_N13623203_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-STOCKS-UPDATE-2.XML

NEW YORK, Oct 13 (Reuters) - U.S. stock futures turned negative on Thursday after the U.S. government reported the trade deficit widened to its third-highest level on record in August as oil import prices hit a new high and imports of textiles and other goods from China also set a record.

Also, another government report said U.S. import prices rose 2.3 percent last month, the largest advance in nearly 15 years and more than twice expectations.

S&P 500 futures were down 3.3 points, below their fair value, a mathematical formula that evaluates their pricing by taking into account interest rates, dividends and time to expiration on the contract.

Dow Jones industrial average futures were down 23 points, while Nasdaq 100 futures were down 2.5 points.

[ozymandius]

17. early pre-open blather

8:04AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -3.0.
Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -3.0.

The cash market is set to open slightly lower today, ahead of the Aug. trade balance report and last week's claims data which will both be delivered at the bottom of the hour. For the former, economists expect that the trade deficit rose to $59.5 bln, the second-largest deficit that the country has potentially booked. Regarding the claims data, analysts estimate a read of 360K.

[Changenow]

19. Super-bulls set sights on Dow 40,000

The professional Wall Street spin machine has kicked into overdrive in the past two weeks. A slew of strategists have stridden into the teeth of Hurricane October with forecasts saying stocks in the final three months of this year will clock in with a juicy 8% gain -- equal to the average fourth-quarter gain over the past decade.

skip

The Dow at 40,000?

Yet even these sound like doomsday scenarios compared to a cadre of analysts arguing that stocks are actually on the verge of a historic breakout. They say their calculations suggest the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU), now at 10,200, will rocket to 20,000 to 40,000 over the next three to five years, driven by improving global income levels, a boost in the money supply and the deployment of vast quantities of hoarded cash by companies and individuals.

*skip*


In late September, Hays told clients to expect gains of 100%-plus in the next couple of years, in part due to vast piles of individual and corporate cash being put to work amid “the reinvigoration” of the U.S. dollar and productivity. “The monetary liquidity floating around the world is so humongous it is impossible to describe all the pockets overflowing and looking for a home,” he said, adding that the believes U.S. GDP is on track to double to a 7% annualized rate, while inflation will remain in a 1%-to-2% range over the next decade.

Not to be outdone, Dent told clients on Oct. 1 that he “couldn’t be more bullish for the next year, and the next five years.” He added: “Ignore the news and be investing as fully as your risk tolerance warrants. … We are very close to the last great buy opportunity ahead of the greatest five-year stock bubble in history. And still, no one suspects such a bullish scenario while our long-term indicators say it is almost inevitable.”

A pattern emerges, again

A key element of both the Dent and Hays outlook is the observation that most extreme bull phases of the last century – 1915 to 1919, 1925 to 1929, 1935 to 1937, 1985 to 1987 and 1995 to 1999 -- were preceded by major corrections (or crashes), followed by a strong initial recovery and then a one-to-two-year trading range. Of course, the implication is that the crash in this case was the 2000-2002 bear market, the recovery rally happened in 2003 and the trading range was seen from 2004 to 2005. Dent suggests that the markets “are simply waiting for signs that the Fed can’t tighten much further” and for oil to correct below $58-to-$62 support levels “to suggest a top in that bubble.”

more

http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/P132295.asp#msnhp

I thought everyone would enjoy a good laugh to start their day.

[Maeve]

25. Only one response to this

:rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

[UpInArms]

37. I think I'll join you in that response

:rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl:

[ozymandius]

27. Dent is one happenin' dude. He reminds me of someone.

[UpInArms]

38. that should have come with a "graphics" warning!

:scared:

[54anickel]

46. GACK!!! Evil little troll

[54anickel]

44. O.M.G.!!! Just look at those dates alone! Weren't they also FOLLOWED

by major crashes?

Boost in the money supply? We're already over-flowing in a sea of currency! Somehow that's going to lead to LOW inflation?

Bubbles are now BULLISH? This is a great buy opportunity ahead of the greatest five-year stock bubble in history?

Wow, seems like he's calling for some miracle that will steer hyper-inflation directly to the stock market.

:smoke: I want some of that!

[DainBramaged]

45. Wish we had a treding water smile because thats what the Market has done

[Ilsa]

48. Best joke I've heard all month. And to think I was considering

calling my broker and asking him sell almost everything.


:rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

[AnneD]

58. Don't bogart that joint, man....

:rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :smoke: :hippie: :popcorn: Dang, they get all the good stuff.....

[patcox2]

71. Well, a nice bout of Weimar-style hyperinflation and it could happen.

Nothing to laugh about.

[sweepster]

122. I remember in 2001 bushcos said the Dow would be 15,000 by year end

so much for that. 40,0000? LMAO

[wordpix]

126. like the idea of heaven

This reminds me of the idea of heaven and the afterlife. You believe in the stock market coming back (like you believe in heaven after death) and it's sure to happen. Of course, we're likely to be long gone by then.

[UpInArms]

32. Treasurys briefly extend decline after U.S. data releases

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38638.3669806134-845819342&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- Treasury prices, already down for a third day, fell after the release of mostly bond-negative economic data issued Thursday morning -- reports that backed expectations for higher interest rates and perhaps justified the Fed's inflation concerns. The benchmark 10-year note was last 10/32 lower at 98 4/32. The price decline pushed its yield ($TNX) up to 4.49% after initially reaching 4.5%. Yields are at their highest in six months. Excluding oil, import prices climbed a record 1.2%. Excluding all fuels, prices rose 0.4%. Another report showed a drop in weekly filings for jobless benefits.

[UpInArms]

33. Check-Kiting: Fed adds temporary US bank reserves via 14-day RPs

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-10-13T123249Z_01_N13307853_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-FED-OPERATIONS.XML

NEW YORK, Oct 13 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve said on Thursday it was adding temporary reserves to the U.S. banking system through 14-day system repurchase agreements.

The benchmark federal funds rate last traded at 3.750 percent, the Fed's target for the overnight lending rate.

Further details of the operations are available at: http://www.ny.frb.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm

See for recent Fed open market operations.

[UpInArms]

60. Check-Kiting: U.S. Treasury Dept to sell $34 bln bills on Monday

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-10-13T150044Z_01_WAT004170_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-BILLS-URGENT.XML

WASHINGTON, Oct 13 (Reuters) - The U.S. Treasury Department said on Thursday it will sell $18 billion of three-month bills and $16 billion of six-month bills on Monday, Oct. 17.

The bills will be issued on Thursday, Oct. 20.

Proceeds from the sale will be used to refund an estimated $31.95 billion of publicly held 13- and 26-week bills maturing Oct. 20 and to raise about $2.05 billion of new cash.

The three-month bills mature on Jan. 19, while the six-month bills mature on April 20.

Treasury said $5.40 billion of the three-month bills can be excluded when bidders calculate their net long positions. The net long reporting threshold for the three-month bills is $6.30 billion and for the six-month bills it is $5.60 billion.

...more...

[UpInArms]

74. Treasuries fall on view Fed will push rates higher

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-10-13T161515Z_01_N13417730_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-BONDS-UPDATE-1.XML

NEW YORK, Oct 13 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury debt prices fell on Thursday as traders focused on expectations the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates further and recoiled at data showing a disconcerting rise in import prices.

But import prices are not the market's key barometer of inflation measurement, analysts say, putting the focus squarely on Friday's consumer prices data.

Reflecting inflation concerns and fueled by technical factors, the yield on the benchmark 10-year note hit a fresh six-month high just before the New York session got under way at 4.509 percent.

The benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell 13/32 in price for a yield of 4.497 percent, after piercing above 4.50 percent during European trade. Traders said that 4.50 percent remains an important technical barrier. The 10-year ended on Wednesday at 4.45 percent.

"With the Fed bringing inflation back into the discussion, it's created a different environment in the Treasuries market. We really need to see a true inflation number, and we get that (Friday) with the CPI," Kevin Flanagan a fixed-income strategist at Morgan Stanley in White Plains, New York.

...more...

[UpInArms]

99. Treasuries slip again, no help from debt auction

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-10-13T181113Z_01_N13489985_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-BONDS-UPDATE-2.XML

NEW YORK, Oct 13 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury debt prices slipped on Thursday, sending benchmark yields to fresh six-month highs, as fears of higher interest rates superseded a well-received auction of inflation-protected securities.

Bond yields have been marching higher since early September as a steady chorus of Federal Reserve officials made clear they do not intend to stop raising interest rates soon.

This has made it difficult for the market to make any sort of convincing comeback, even when faced with negative economic data or positive debt auction results.

That was certainly the case on Wednesday, when investors glossed over a widening of the U.S. trade deficit, a jump in jobless claims and solid demand for an auction of $8 billion in reopened Treasury Inflation Protected Securities, known as TIPS.

Dealers were also spooked by data on Thursday showing import prices had posted their largest jump in 15 years.

<snip>

Indirect bidders, which include customers of primary dealers and foreign central banks, gobbled up $3.97 billion or 49.6 percent of the sale -- an unusually large amount that might signal inflation worries are stirring demand for TIPS.

...more...

[UpInArms]

34. Delta's Comair to cut up to 1,000 jobs, trim fleet

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-10-13T124102Z_01_WEN0987_RTRIDST_0_AIRLINES-DELTA-COMAIR-URGENT.XML

NEW YORK, Oct 13 (Reuters) - Delta Air Lines Inc.'s (DAL.N: Quote, Profile, Research) regional unit Comair said on Thursday it will cut up to 1,000 jobs and trim its fleet by up to 30 aircraft in support of Delta's overall bid to reduce expenses in bankruptcy.

Comair will also seek to reduce wages and benefits for its pilots, flight attendants and mechanics, as well as white collar executives' salaries. The moves aim to cut Comair's costs by up to $70 million a year, Delta said.

...short blurb...

[ozymandius]

35. Not going to be around much today.

My son's school is closed today. So we're taking the day together. I'll check back this afternoon as time allows.

Have a great day at the Casino everyone!

:hi: Ozy

[UpInArms]

36. Have a great day, Ozy!

We'll keep an eye on the casino for you :D

:hi:

[UpInArms]

39. Delphi CEO: Only U.S. plants face layoffs

http://www.brownsvilleherald.com/ts_more.php?id=67578_0_10_0_C

October 13, 2005 — Delphi Corp.’s bankruptcy won’t affect any of its plants outside of the United States, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Robert S. Miller said Wednesday.

The company employs more than 24,000 people in the state of Tamaulipas. More than 12,000 of whom work in Matamoros, according to Delphi’s Michael Hissam and Brownsville Economic Development Corp. President Jason Hilts.

“Our overseas operations are profitable (and) growing,” Miller said in a conference call with members of the media Wednesday afternoon. “Chapter 11 is limited to U.S. corporate entities. It does not affect (Delphi’s) overseas (operations).”

A spokesman for the company was unavailable to confirm that the term “overseas” was meant to include Mexican operations.

<snip>

Miller lashed out at the media several times during the conference call for reporting on the executive compensation packages, which included cash bonuses and better severance packages, approved days before filing for Chapter 11. The company is asking wage-earners to brace for pay cuts of up to 63 percent.

“I am disappointed in the quality of your reporting,” Miller said. “We have to adjust to market conditions.”

...more...

[54anickel]

47. Waaa - Execs were being underpaid while non-execs were overpaid

What a freakin' bastard!

I don't suppose "overseas" operations are unionized or anything. And then he cries to Hillary to look at the Canadian health care system to reduce the burden on American companies. Do you suppose he offered her ANY support when Bill had her in a position to actually DO anything about it?

[UpInArms]

40. The Drug-Addled Brain of Meanspin

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/economy/jan-june00/oil_2-17.html

February 17, 2000

excerpt:

GWEN IFILL: The cost of heating oil in the Northeast has doubled as well, driven in part by the cost of crude oil. The barrel of oil that cost just $11 only a year ago now costs about $30. The last time oil was this expensive was during the Persian Gulf crisis in 1991. The impact has been felt at gas pumps, in homes heated by oil and at airline ticket counters, where $20 fuel surcharges have been added to ticket prices. Federal

Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan and other inflation watchers are taking notice, worried that energy costs could also drive up the prices of other goods. Particularly hard-hit is New England, where three-quarters of the homes are heated by oil. Some low-income residents say they have been forced to choose between paying for food or paying for oil to heat their homes. At a news conference Wednesday, President Clinton announced that he had released $125 million in federal funds to help poor families pay energy bills.

...more...

http://www.lasvegassun.com/sunbin/stories/invest-corp/2005/oct/12/101209773.html

October 12, 2005

The country's ability to weather a surge in energy prices is the latest example of how economic flexibility helps prevent serious recessions, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said Wednesday.

Greenspan said an environment of maximum competition has been the driving force in spurring the type of flexibility that has allowed the country to withstand a number of shocks over the past two decades with only two mild recessions.

<snip>

"Most recently, the flexibility of our market-driven economy has allowed us, thus far, to weather reasonably well the steep rise in spot and futures prices for oil and natural gas that we have experienced over the past two years," Greenspan said.

...more...

:banghead:

[UpInArms]

80. Greenspan Says U.S. Handling Oil `Reasonably Well'

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=apz9rKCji4Zg&refer=us

Oct. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said the U.S. economy has ``weathered reasonably well the steep rise'' in energy prices thanks to market-driven incentives and ``flexibility.''

``The impressive performance of the U.S. economy over the past couple of decades, despite shocks that in the past would have surely produced marked economic contraction, offers the clearest evidence of the benefits of increased market flexibility,'' Greenspan told the National Italian American Foundation in Washington.

Crude oil prices rose 51 percent since the start of the year and surged after hurricanes struck the Gulf Coast, raising an inflation alert at the Federal Reserve. In minutes from their Sept. 20 meeting released yesterday, the Fed suggested that the risk of higher prices appeared to outweigh that of an economic slowdown and said interest rates will probably go higher.

``The flexibility of our market-driven economy has allowed us, thus far, to weather reasonably well the steep rise in spot and futures prices for oil and natural gas that we have experienced over the past two years,'' Greenspan said.

...more...

No warnings about how this Washed-Up Has-Been Partisan Hack has led the country down the merry road to destruction.

[UpInArms]

41. 9:35 EST wheels spinning

Dow 10,216.91 -36.26 (-0.35%)
Nasdaq 2,035.13 -2.34 (-0.11%)
S&P 500 1,177.68 0.00 (0.00%)
10-Yr Bond 4.441 0.00 (0.00%)

NYSE Volume 60,658,000
Nasdaq Volume 69,843,000

[UpInArms]

42. 9:47 EST checking the pothole for depth and width

DJIA 10194.66 -22.25
Nasdaq 2031.86 -5.61
S&P 500 1173.47 -4.21
Rus 2000 617.29 -4.28
10 Yr Bd 4.47 .03

9:40AM: The stock market opened slightly lower, as traders continue to digest the latest trade deficit data ($59.0 bln vs. $59.5 bln consensus) and await the EIA's energy inventories report at 10:30 ET. Although there continues to be little data to substantiate the negative tone, the market's sentiment remains poor. The economy remains on track for third and fourth quarter real GDP to be at or above the trend in the first half of the year, and earnings growth has remained very good. Third quarter profit growth will be higher than in the first half of the year, and forecasts for the fourth quarter are around 15%. The only real change over the past two months has been a recognition that the Fed will have to raise rates more than just once more, and traders now expect three more rate hikes, to a 4 1/2% fed funds rate in early 2006. The potential for a classic earnings season rally remains, however, as Q3 reports will begin streaming in on Monday.

(blather added on edit)

[UpInArms]

51. 10:45 EST doing the happy dance

Dow 10,232.35 +15.44 (+0.15%)
Nasdaq 2,040.01 +2.54 (+0.12%)
S&P 500 1,178.43 +0.75 (+0.06%)
10-Yr Bond 4.441% 0.00

NYSE Volume 536,177,000
Nasdaq Volume 442,142,000

adding blather on edit:

10:35AM: Maintaining their stance, the market's majors continue to trend negative. Selling pressure is once again broad-based, limiting early gains to Healthcare (+0.4%) and Technology (+0.2%). The former sector's rise is largely due to a 1.7% rise in Johnson & Johnson (JNJ 62.85 +1.05) shares that dual news items have helped fuel. This morning, the New York Times reported that the pharmaceutical giant JNJ has filed an antitrust suit accusing rival Amgen (AMGN 75.00 +0.23) of using illegal bundling practices to drive J&J's drug Procrit out of the market. In addition, the company has enjoyed a boost after a Barron's article lauded the stock. Separately, the EIA reported a 1.02 mln barrel build in crude supplies (consensus +2.0 mlb barrels), a 2.65 mln barrel decline in gasoline inventory (consensus -2.0 mln barrels), and a 3.41 mln barrel drop in distillates (consensus -2.3 mln barrels). NYSE Adv/Dec 788/2092, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 890/1692

10:05AM: Each of the major averages inch south, and the market again lacks any kind of leadership. All ten of the economic sectors begin the session in the red, with Energy (-1.8%) and Utilities (-1.5%) continuing to lead the way lower as traders remain intent on locking some of the market's best performers' profits. Crude has slightly eased in the early going, down a quarter, or 0.4%, to $63.87/bbl; while analysts expect a 2000K build in crude inventories to be announced at the bottom of the hour, they project that supplies of heating fuels and gasoline dropped. Despite expectations, gasoline and natural gas are similarly ticking downward this morning.NYSE Adv/Dec 873/1653, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 756/1597

[UpInArms]

55. GACK! Study says US consumers use credit for basic costs

http://today.reuters.com/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=reutersEdge&storyID=2005-10-12T210201Z_01_DIT275611_RTRIDST_0_PICKS-ECONOMY-CREDITCARDS-DC.XML

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Low- and middle-income Americans rely on credit cards to pay for basic living expenses, car repairs and medical care, not frivolous material goods, according to a report on Wednesday from a group calling for tougher regulation of credit card companies.

DEMOS, a New York-based public policy group that studies economic opportunity issues, and the Center for Responsible Lending, a Washington policy group focused on predatory lending, said low- and middle-income families fall into credit card debt to cope with income declines or unexpected costs.

According to the survey, 48 percent of respondents said they used credit cards to pay for car repairs while 38 percent reported paying for home repairs with plastic.

Some 34 percent of those surveyed said the purchase of a major household appliance increased their credit card debt while 33 percent cited basic living expenses, such as rent, groceries and utilities, as contributors to credit-card debt levels.

The survey said average credit-card debt among participants totaled $8,650.

...more...

[AnneD]

59. Well.....

the new bankruptcy bill will put and end to their freewheeling spending. It serves them right, going into debt for such foolishness. :sarcasm:

[UpInArms]

61. 11:24 EST mixing it up

Dow 10,209.38 -7.53 (-0.07%)
Nasdaq 2,037.68 +0.21 (+0.01%)
S&P 500 1,175.83 -1.85 (-0.16%)
10-Yr Bond 4.477 +0.36 (+0.81%)

NYSE Volume 743,308,000
Nasdaq Volume 602,822,000

11:00AM: Following reports of the latest energy supply status, each of the indicesis back in positive territory. Gains are modest, though, and do little to pare the quarter's losses. Although crude inventories rose less than expected, and while both gasoline and distillates supply fell more than anticipated, refinery utilization rose more than analysts had forecasted. Refineries operated at 74.9% of their operable capacity last week vs. the 74.4% consensus. That figure has attracted traders' attention as companies attempt to bring production levels back to normal in the wake of hurricanes Katrina and Rita. Crude is trading flat on the day at $64.10, while gasoline (-$0.0026 $1.8250/gal) and natural gas ($-0.1240 $13.4000/ mln BTUs) are both trending lowerNYSE Adv/Dec 972/2002, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1148/1540

[UpInArms]

65. 11:57 EST hitting a sinkhole

maybe wider and deeper than a pothole

Dow 10,181.13 -35.78 (-0.35%)
Nasdaq 2,030.24 -7.23 (-0.35%)
S&P 500 1,171.18 -6.50 (-0.55%)
10-Yr Bond 4.485 +0.44 (+0.99%)

NYSE Volume 916,678,000
Nasdaq Volume 729,566,000

11:35AM: Flat line vacillation persists, with the Dow and S&P currently extending their respective 2.8% and 3.2% quarter-to-date declines. Ranking just below Healthcare' s 0.6% rise, the Tech sector (+0.4%) has managed a modest gain that has pushed the Nasdaq just above water. After yesterday's tumble, semiconductors have recovered today, up 0.9%. While a number of the sector's bellwethers extend respectable gains, Apple's (AAPL 51.27 +2.02)rebound and 4.3% gain - which nearly erases yesterday's earnings-related decline - as well as follow through interest in Texas Instruments (TXN 30.43 +0.33) and Microsoft (MSFT 24.56 +0.26) are the sector's standouts.NYSE Adv/Dec 830/2217, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1073/1667

[UpInArms]

70. 12: 13 EST stuck in the hole with blather

Dow 10,178.08 -38.83 (-0.38%)
Nasdaq 2,029.68 -7.79 (-0.38%)
S&P 500 1,169.85 -7.83 (-0.66%)
10-Yr Bond 4.497 +0.56 (+1.26%)

NYSE Volume 1,011,065,000
Nasdaq Volume 802,381,000

12:05PM: Lower again today, the market's major averages have not been able to battle the fourth quarter's pervasive pessimism. A widened trade deficit reported for Aug., though not as bad as economists had expected ($59.0 bln vs. the $59.5 bln consensus), has not helped sentiment, and import prices' highest jump in 15 years agitated already-wary traders. Rising 2.3% overall (consensus +1.0%) but 1.2% excluding oil, the figure reflects the fact that petroleum import prices increased 7.3% last month, and are up 49% on the year. The EIA's latest report, which showed a less-than-expected build in crude supplies alongside steeper than expected drops in both gasoline and crude has also contributed to the bearish sentiment today. Once again, leadership lacks and modest gains are limited to just two of the ten economic sectors. With pullbacks in the prices of crude, which is off about 1%, gasoline, and natural gas, the Energy sector (-2.8%) has returned to the red and reassumed last-place status. The story is the same for Utilities today: Traders' profit-locking efforts continue to target the market's two best year-to-date performers, and Utilities has fallen 1.7% this morning. Following the International Copper Study Group's report (ICSG) that global demand for copper fell 1.2% from Jan to July, the Materials sector has sunk 0.9%; Phelps Dodge (PD 118.32 -6.90) is an particular pocket of weakness. While there has been little news on the corporate front, and as investors received just a lightweight, mixed bag of earnings ahead of Monday's rush, Google (GOOG 295.10 -5.87) and Comcast (CMCSK 26.89 -0.53) are reportedly together eyeing a $5 bln stake in Time Warner's (TWX 17.68 +0.19) AOL. The news, though, has not helped the Tech sector, which has kept its head above the unchanged mark largely due to Apple (AAPL), which has rebounded and nearly erased yesterday's earnings-related decline. In addition, a report that Johnson & Johnson (JNJ 63.40 +1.60) has filed an antitrust suit accusing rival Amgen (AMGN 75.16 +0.39) of using illegal bundling practices to drive J&J's drug Procrit out of the market, as well as nod by Barron's, has helped drive the Healthcare sector (0.2%) to the day's best performance.NYSE Adv/Dec 768/2435, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 910/1680

[54anickel]

68. Cutback in R&D spending raises red flag

Didn't we just read the other day that R&D beyond the minimum was a waste of resources and offered no return on investment?

http://www.usatoday.com/money/companies/management/2005-10-12-randd-usat_x.htm

Are companies squandering the future keeping their shareholders happy?

While third-quarter corporate profits, being reported now, are expected to soar an additional 15% compared with the year-ago quarter, companies are shoveling much of their fat cash flows back to investors through dividends and share buybacks. In the process, research and development, better known as R&D, is being ignored.

Companies spent slightly less on R&D as a percentage of revenue in the second quarter than they did a year ago, according to a USA TODAY analysis of Capital IQ data, looking at members of the Standard & Poor's 1500 index. Spending on R&D by companies in the benchmark S&P 500 index has grown 3.3% over the past four quarters, well below the 11.6% growth in revenue during the same period, S&P says.

Meanwhile, the dollar value of stock buybacks and dividends, two ways to return cash to shareholders, jumped 92% and 13%, respectively, in the second quarter, says Howard Silverblatt, market analyst at S&P.

snip>

One reason companies are R&D averse: They fear investor retribution. In a reversal from the late 1990s, when dividends were dissed and companies couldn't spend enough on R&D, investors now want executives to return cash to them, says Jim Paulsen, strategist at Wells Capital Management. Investors and executives fear R&D spending is "being thrown down a rat hole," Paulsen says.

more...

[UpInArms]

77. Samsung to pay $300 million in DRAM price-fixing case

So when do the consumers get their money back?

:sarcasm:

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38638.5252983796-845859009&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd. (SSNGY) and its U.S. subsidiary agreed to pay a $300 million fine for taking part in a conspiracy to fix the prices of dynamic random access memory semiconductors, the Justice Department said Thursday. This is the second largest criminal antitrust fine in U.S. history. The Justice Department said the Korean company agreed to cooperate with the government in its ongoing investigation of other chipmakers.

[54anickel]

79. This could get interesting....

The Justice Department said the Korean company agreed to cooperate with the government in its ongoing investigation of other chipmakers

This was such a common practice when I was in the "bidness", and not just in memory chips. Samsung is gonna sing?

[UpInArms]

81. Derivatives Warning: Fitch may cut ratings of 73 CDO pieces on Delphi

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-10-13T164515Z_01_WNA0121_RTRIDST_0_AUTOS-FITCH-CDOS-URGENT.XML

NEW YORK, Oct 13 (Reuters) - Fitch Ratings said on Thursday that it may cut its ratings on 73 pieces of 40 collateralized debt obligations that have exposure to Delphi Corp. <DPHIQ.PK, which filed for bankruptcy on Saturday.

The deals on review for downgrade have a total exposure to Delphi of 1.27 billion euros ($1.52 billion). The extent of the downgrade will depend on the size of the exposure to Delphi in the portfolios, the seniority of the CDO pieces in the capital structure, the leverage of the deals and on how much Delphi's debt recovers, Fitch said.

Forty pieces of the CDOs on review for downgrade come from 15 public CDOs, and 33 pieces come from 25 private deals.

[UpInArms]

85. Moody's says CDO ratings likely to change on Delphi

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-10-13T170517Z_01_WNA0124_RTRIDST_0_AUTOS-MOODYS-CDOS-URGENT.XML

NEW YORK, Oct 13 (Reuters) - Moody's Investors Service on Thursday said that it expects to change its ratings on some collateralized debt obligations, following Delphi Corp.'s (DPHIQ.PK: Quote, Profile, Research) bankruptcy filing on Saturday.

"It is too soon to determine which specific deals would be affected or the extent of any ratings changes," Moody's said. "The impact will depend upon the actual exposures to Delphi and the ultimate recovery values."

Ratings changes are more likely to affect deals backed by credit-default swaps, than those including bonds or loans, it said.

Moody's has rated 324 CDOs with exposure to Delphi, 177 of which are in the U.S. and 127 in Europe, the Middle East and Africa.

324!

Ruh-roh :hide:

[54anickel]

87. It's slowly turning into a pandemic, too late for quarantine. Where the

hell can I get a vaccination for my small pittance of wealth these days?

[UpInArms]

89. Hurricanes: Few insurers will report a 3Q profit

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B51CCDC57%2D4C27%2D437F%2DA0CB%2DF9BD55A60006%7D&siteid=mktw

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) - Hurricane Katrina and other storms will wipe out most property and casualty insurers' third-quarter profits, analysts said ahead of results next week from Allstate Corp., Safeco Corp. and other companies in the industry.

Katrina, which smashed into Louisiana, Alabama and Mississippi on Aug. 29, could end up costing insurers $34.4 billion, according to estimates by the Insurance Services Office, an organization that crunches claims data for the industry.

Losses on that scale would make Katrina the most expensive catastrophe in U.S. history, eclipsing the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks in 2001 and Hurricane Andrew in 1992.

As if that wasn't enough, the Gulf coast was hit by Hurricane Rita in September. That could cost the industry another $4 billion to $7 billion, according to catastrophe modeling firm Risk Management Solutions.

Other storms, such as Hurricanes Dennis and Emily, have added to this year's unprecedented hurricane season.

"It's fair to assume that much of the industry's earnings will be wiped out by the devastating and historical losses during the quarter," Michael Paisan, an analyst at Legg Mason, wrote in a note to clients earlier this month.

...more...

[Catchawave]

94. Hi DU Wall Street peeps....

Sloughed off AOL:

Markets: Full Coverage
DJIA -38.11 10,178.80
NASDAQ -3.77 2,033.70
S&P 500 -6.90 1,170.78

At my post time stamp.

[54anickel]

97. Check out this blather - we suck, but not as bad as Europe!!!!

1:00PM: While each of the indices retain their solidly negative stance, the U.S. market currently ouperforms the most recent performances by the major European averages. In Britain, the FTSE 100 declined 1.4%, while Fance's CAC and Germany's DAX respectively fell 1.0% and 0.7%. In the U.S., the S&P 500 is currently down 0.5%. Infected with concerns that rising energy prices and soaring interest rates will slow earnings growth in the U.S., the benchmark Stoxx 600, which covers the major exchanges of 17 European countries, has erased 3% this quarter. Its worst-ever fourth quarter start and biggest slide since calculations began in 1987 mirrors the United States' launch of Q4, which has been the worst in 10 years. With expected earnings growth of 15% for the Q3 earnings season that will pick up Monday, however, both U.S. and international markets may find relief.NYSE Adv/Dec 805/2377, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1078/1785

[UpInArms]

105. Hiya Catchawave!

Thanks for coming into the SMW and filling in :hi:

Hang around anytime and let us know what's going on where you are!

[Catchawave]

114. Thanks! Watching the mortgage morans...

AND, watching the realtors and bankers too! Taking away our middle class mortgage and home equity tax deductions is NOT going to fly ? I hope !

Otherwise, I'll just dump my house and rent from Frist. Not!

[AnneD]

140. Hi Catchawave...

:hi: I know Rove had a rental available near Austin, but he may need to sell the DC house for legal fees and move back. He needs to get back anyway to be able to vote. But wait, Tom may be first in line to rent. Oh well, I hear Trent Lott will be having space on his big porch. Hey, a couple of boxes, a little duct tape and plastic sheets and you won't EVEN have to worry about having to heat your cottage.

[54anickel]

98. 2:08 pixie brigade

edit for html and to add Adv/Dec stats.

Dow 10,201.86 -15.05 (-0.15%)
Nasdaq 2,040.18 +2.71 (+0.13%)
S&P 500 1,174.79 -2.89 (-0.25%)
10-yr Bond 44.79 +0.38 (+0.86%)
30-yr Bond 47.06 +0.50 (+1.07%)
NYSE Volume 1,537,906,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,180,759,000

2:00PM: The indices have stood relatively still over the past half hour. Although it has spent the session submerged, the Consumer Discretionary sector (-0.4%) currently stands as the best of the laggards. Follow-through buying interest in Harley Davidson (HDI 48.65 +1.75), following its upbeat Q3 earnings report yesterday, surging Starbucks (SBUX 52.45 +1.73) shares, and McDonald's (MCD 31.88 +0.31) solid standing collectively help limit the sector's downside. For its part, the restaurant giant upped its Q3 guidance last night, and also reported strong Sept. same store sales results that beat expectations. As it's not immune to the broad-based selling affecting the overall market, declines in over half of Consumer Discretionary's sub areas ultimately offset the bright spots, though. Comcast's (CMCSK 26.88 -0.54) slide, following reports that it may team with Google (GOOG 294.32 -6.65) to acquire a stake in America Online, has sent broadcasting (-1.5%) to the bottom of the list. NYSE Adv/Dec 792/2436, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1029/1876

1:30PM: Caught within a post-lunch trading range, the market has been relatively static. Leadership remains limited to Healthcare (+0.3%) and Tech (+0.2%); although those sectors together comprise about 29% of the overall market, their modest gains are insufficient in countering invasive weakness. Within the Dow, losses outnumber gains 2-to-1, and the leading gains extended by Johnson & Johnson (JNJ 63.66 +1.86), McDonald's (MCD 31.91 +0.24), and Microsoft (MSFT 24.59 +0.29) are muted by the majority. Of the laggards, General Motors (GM 25.93 -0.77), Exxon Mobil (XOM 57.47 -1.47), and Altria (MO 69.58 -1.34) exert the sharpest pressure.NYSE Adv/Dec 859/2338, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1133/1762


Advances & Declines
NYSE Nasdaq
Advances 709 (21%) 1109 (36%)
Declines 2529 (75%) 1824 (59%)
Unchanged 123 (3%) 124 (4%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Up Vol* 342 (23%) 570 (51%)
Down Vol* 1084 (75%) 531 (47%)
Unch. Vol* 7 (0%) 16 (1%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New Hi's 15 25
New Lo's 349 226

[UpInArms]

104. 2:23 EST and dust all over the floor

Dow 10,224.67 +7.76 (+0.08%)
Nasdaq 2,042.40 +4.93 (+0.24%)
S&P 500 1,176.75 -0.93 (-0.08%)
10-Yr Bond 4.479 +0.38 (+0.86%)

NYSE Volume 1,615,003,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,235,669,000

[54anickel]

106. Now that was a powerful batch of dust, man!...n/t

[54anickel]

101. China's top 100 rich get 48% richer in a year

Just seems strange to see this type of headline from China, doesn't it? Ha, and Snow was surprised by the structural changes in Shanghai

http://business-times.asia1.com.sg/sub/news/story/0,4574,172649,00.html?

7 billionaires in list; wealth of top 400 come to US$75b or 7% of China's GDP

(SHANGHAI) The wealth of China's 100 richest people grew 48 per cent during the past year, with property and manufacturing the most profitable sectors, according to the South China Morning Post.

Being born in Zhejiang province and carrying a Communist Party membership card also gave mainland entrepreneurs a better than even chance to join the rich list, judging by its members, it reported.

These are the findings of the China Rich List published yesterday by Rupert Hoogewerf, who has compiled the list since 1999.

This time, however, the number of wealthy was expanded to 400 from 100 in previous years and their total wealth amounted to US$75 billion, equal to 7 per cent of China's gross domestic product last year.

One in five are believed to be members of the Communist Party, including eight National People's Congress delegates and 11 China People's Political Consultative Congress members.

more...

[sweepster]

124. So much for their widening middle class wanting to buy goods from the US.

Free traitor elites said millions of chinese would become wealthy and buy goods from the US. It is not happening folks. Kiss the rest of our jobs goodby.

[UpInArms]

102. No need for US price target - ex-Bush aide Lindsey (Meanspin successor?)

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-10-13T174941Z_01_N13351550_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-FED-LINDSEY.XML

WASHINGTON, Oct 13 (Reuters) - An inflation target would do little to improve U.S. monetary policy since the Federal Reserve's anti-inflation credentials are solid, former White House economic adviser Lawrence Lindsey said on Thursday.

Lindsey, considered a potential candidate to succeed Fed chief Alan Greenspan when he steps down early next year, also said deciding on an appropriate target would be a nettlesome issue, since the inflation measure most important to Fed policy could change with economic circumstances.

"It's not clear, assuming you have a reasonable degree of credibility to begin with, that you gain much by saying at the end of 2006 this index will be such and such. I don't see where the gain is," Lindsey told a forum hosted by the American Enterprise Institute, where he is a visiting scholar.

Lindsey, director of the White House National Economic Council from 2001 through 2002, said a debate was under way at the Fed over what an appropriate inflation gauge might be should the central bank decide that stating a goal for desired inflation was desirable.

"Where you see the debate is core (inflation) over not core," he said, referring to inflation measures that strip out food and energy prices, largely because they are often viewed as volatile, and those that don't.

...more...

[UpInArms]

119. Inflation surge: Here to stay?

http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=2326&e=8&u=/csm/20051013/ts_csm/ainflation

NEW YORK - If it feels like money is flowing out of your pocket, it isn't your imagination.

<snip>

Such changes are expected to show up Friday when the government reports the September consumer price index (CPI). Economists expect this inflation indicator to show a rise of between 1 and 1.5 percentage points.

This would be the sharpest spike since January 1990, when the CPI rose by 1.1 percent after a cold snap in December shot energy prices higher.

<snip>

"It will be ugly," says economist Lynn Reaser of the Investment Strategies Group at Bank of America in Boston. "In any case it's only one month's number, but it could either alleviate or exacerbate inflation concerns which have recently accelerated."

Inflation fears will be lessened if the numbers indicate the price spike has only taken place in the more-volatile areas of energy and food. However, if inflation has spread to what economists call the "core rate" - the less-volatile areas - there will be concern. At the moment, some economists expect this core rate to increase by 0.2 or 0.1 percentage points.

...more...

[UpInArms]

109. Navistar Announces 231 Layoffs

http://www.onnnews.com/Global/story.asp?S=3974700

In Springfield, Navistar announced that they will layoff 231 people at the end of this month at its International Truck and Engine Plant.

A lot of the workers have been through layoffs before and they're hoping this one is temporary, too.

UAW Local 402 President Charlie Hayden says, " are people that have been through layoffs in the past 10 or 11 years. Some have been laid off six times in a 10 or 11 year period."

The laid off workers are those with the least seniority at International, a plant that manufacturers medium-duty trucks.

Navistar expects to reduce truck production from 177 to 120 per day. They say the demand for trucks just isn't there.

...more...

[UpInArms]

113. 2:49 EST Whee! All is good again!

Dow 10,230.19 +13.28 (+0.13%)
Nasdaq 2,049.66 +12.19 (+0.60%)
S&P 500 1,179.35 +1.67 (+0.14%)
10-Yr Bond 4.477 +0.36 (+0.81%)

NYSE Volume 1,771,762,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,368,001,000

2:30PM: The indices head back to the flat line, and are currently trading in mixed fashion...

While the trade balance data that hit the morning's wires did nothing to help sentiment within the stock and bond markets alike, the less-than-expected trade deficit boosted the buck today. The rise in import prices, which, including oil, was the highest in 15 years, added to inflation concerns that further helped the dollar as traders speculate more rate hikes will be imposed by the Fed. Against the yen, the U.S. currency reached a 2-year high today, adding to its 11% year-to-date gain while also gaining on the euro. NYSE Adv/Dec 840/2408, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1166/1779

[UpInArms]

123. 3:46 EST fairies still working the floor

they seem afraid of tomorrow's reports :eyes:

Dow 10,215.79 -1.12 (-0.01%)
Nasdaq 2,048.79 +11.32 (+0.56%)
S&P 500 1,177.09 -0.59 (-0.05%)
10-Yr Bond 4.475 +0.34 (+0.77%)

NYSE Volume 2,133,581,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,641,856,000

3:30PM: While the Dow and S&P are presently trending back in the red, the Nasdaq hangs onto its recent gain. A look at the market's breadth reveals an improvement in sentiment over the last hour, and also serves as further evidence of the Nasdaq's relative recovery. Decliners still outpace advancers on both the NYSE and Nasdaq, but have lost some ground. At 2:30 ET, declining issues had a 3-to-1 edge over their advancing counterparts on the Big Board, and enjoyed an 18-to-11 advantage over advancers on the Nasdaq. At this time, decliners have slid to a 2-to-1 lead over the NYSE's advancers, and are currently gridlocked with the advancing issues on the Nasdaq.NYSE Adv/Dec 1051/2236, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1456/1501

3:00PM: Over the past half an hour, the market jumped into positive territory - boosted by the Tech sector's (+0.9%) recent rise. However, the Dow and S&P have since returned to the flat line and currently vacillate just below it. A surge in semiconductors, which helps the group take back the ground it lost yesterday, accompanies the hardware sect's climb that has been catalyzed by soaring Apple (AAPL 53.37 +4.12) shares in supporting the overall sector as well as the Nasdaq. Semiconductors' rise today has spurred a 1.9% rise in the SOXX index that outperforms each of the major indices, as well as the S&P 400 Midcap Index and the Russell 2000 Smallcap Index. Russell 2000 +0.19, SOX +1.9, S&P Midcap 400 -0.44, NYSE Adv/Dec 1105 /2163, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1402/1559

[UpInArms]

125. US SWAPS - Fresh wides for year on paying pressure

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-10-13T194136Z_01_N13558873_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-SWAPS.XML

NEW YORK, Oct 13 (Reuters) - U.S. swap spreads grew to some of their widest levels so far in 2005 on Thursday, prompted by paying pressure from mortgage players before Friday's U.S. consumer price report, analysts said.

Mortgage players, especially servicers, often lighten swap positions in anticipation of falling prepayments due to rising mortgage rates.

Hedge demand on new debt sales failed to offset the paying pressure for a second straight day, market sources said.

Thursday's key debt offerings included $3 billion of three-year notes and a $1 billion 10-year debt reopening from Fannie Mae (FNM.N: Quote, Profile, Research).

Swap spreads moved out as much as 0.75 basis point with 10-year spreads finishing at 48.00 basis points, their widest since early August 2004.

...more...

[UpInArms]

130. Tower Automotive to close two plants, cut 590 jobs

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-10-13T200012Z_01_WEN1022_RTRIDST_0_AUTOS-TOWER-PLANTS-URGENT.XML

CHICAGO, Oct 13 (Reuters) - Bankrupt autobody frame and structure producer Tower Automotive Inc. (TWRAQ.PK: Quote, Profile, Research) said on Thursday it will close plants in Tennessee and Illinois to reduce excess capacity, cutting 590 jobs by the end of 2006.

Tower, which sought bankruptcy protection in February, said it will cut 300 employees in Granite City, Illinois, and 290 in Milan, Tennessee, absorbing the work into other facilities. The Novi, Michigan-based company produces stampings and other parts at the plants.

[UpInArms]

136. closing numbers

Dow 10,216.59 -0.32 (-0.00%)
Nasdaq 2,047.22 +9.75 (+0.48%)
S&P 500 1,176.84 -0.84 (-0.07%)
10-Yr Bond 4.475 +0.34 (+0.77%)

NYSE Volume 2,331,062,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,777,591,000

gotta run :hi:

[54anickel]

139. Blather

Despite staging a late-day rebound that a rising Tech sector (+0.6%) spurred, the equity market was not altogether successful in ending the losing streak that has characterized quarter four. The emergence of Technology's leadership, did, however, send the Dow and S&P to the flat line and well off of their lows while pushing the Nasdaq to a gain that halted its 4.5% quarter-to-date decline. Already caught within a thick air of pessimism, traders found little to challenge the prevailing sentiment today. The economic front brought a widened trade deficit, which, although wasn't as bad as economists had forecasted ($59.0 bln vs. the $59.5 bln consensus), checked in as the third-worst ever. Perhaps more significantly, import prices rose the most in 15 years, up 2.3% overall (consensus +1.0%) and reflecting surging energy costs; excluding oil, import prices increased 1.2%. A less-than-expected build in crude inventories, accompanied by drawdowns that were sharper than expected in both gasoline and crude, helped compound the bearish bias today. With regard to the ten economic sectors, they finished in split fashion. The aforementioned gain in Technology served as the sturdiest support, and came on the back of surging semiconductors - which worked to erase yesterday's plunge- and an Apple-driven jump in hardware. The computer giant (AAPL 53.74 +4.49), for its part, attracted buyers after disappointing the Street with its earnings report yesterday. On the other side of the Tech coin, though, was Comcast (CMCSK 26.85 -0.57), shoved lower upon reports that it may team with Google (GOOG 297.44 -3.53) to acquire a $5bln chunk of America Online. Healthcare also stood as a standout today, offering a 0.6% gain for which Johnson & Johnson (JNJ 64.06 +2.26) can be largely credited. A double-dose of news helped J&J jump 3.7%: The company filed an antitrust suit accusing rival Amgen (AMGN 75.82 +1.05) of illegally bundling to effectively push its drug Procrit out of the market, and Barron's positive feature on JNJ stock added to its bounce. Despite the suit against AMGN, biotechs soared today and further helped the sector retain its gain. Rising late in the afternoon, the Consumer Discretionary sector (+0.4%) managed a modest gain mostly on account of post-earnings report buying interest in Harley Davidson (HDI 48.66 +1.76), and McDonald's (MCD 32.04 +0.37), which upped Q3 guidance and reported strong Sept. same store sales data delivered yesterday evening. A 1.9% pullback in the price of crude ($62.90/bbl) further helped discretionary issues, but sent the Energy sector (-2.4%) back to the red. The Utilities sector (-2.2%) similarly suffered extended profit-taking, as traders continue to target the market's two best year-to-date performers. Materials (-0.2%) recovered somewhat mid-day, but spent the session on negative turf after the International Copper Study Group reported that global demand for copper fell 1.2% from Jan to July. Aside from today's economic data, traders had little news with which to contend, and await the torrent of earnings reports that will begin rolling in Monday. In addition, anticipation of tomorrow's CPI data may have helped keep buyers at the sidelines.DJTA -1.03, DJUA -2.78, DOT -0.05, Nasdaq 100 +0.83, Russell 2000 +0.28, SOX +2.14, S&P Midcap 400 -0.43, XOI -2.32, NYSE Adv/Dec 1167/2140, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1499/1490