Bird flu now also in Turkey

[Orrin_73]

The flu is now getting everywhere.
2,000 turkeys dead from avian flu in Turkey: TV

[phusion]

1. Turkeys dying in Turkey?

That's a bad fucking sign.

[tatertop]

2. Should be here soon you would think

[Orrin_73]

3. Scientists predicted that bird flu

will could kill as musc as 159 million people. That really :scared: me.

[tatertop]

4. I wonder when it will start and how bad it will be.

Stock up on stuff and stay indoors till it
'passes.'

[pola]

10. how long does it take to pass thru a town and does it come in cycles ?

I guess this is all on the CDC site.

[tatertop]

13. I suppose that depends on a lot of factors

Asymptomatic carriers is one of them.
Fatality rate is another.
Time from onset of symtoms until death is a third.
Ease of transmission is number four.

We are a mobile society, this has to be very hard to predict.

[pola]

25. thank you

[medeak]

5. close to middle east....think we should quarantine Iraq n/t

[skids]

6. I was about to ask -- the country, or the bird...

...but I guess it's both :eyes:

[lumpy]

7. No turkey in Thanksgiving ?

http://www.cdc.gov/flu/avian/gen-info/facts.htm

Be informed,good idea to find out more about avian flu. Good site Center for Disease control.

[NYdemocrat089]

8. This might be a really stupid question...

but can you get the virus by eating a bird with it (of course you wouldn't do this on purpose, but by accident)?

[muriel_volestrangler]

9. Possibly if un(der?)cooked

Most cases of avian influenza A (H5N1) virus infection in humans are thought to have occurred from direct contact with infected poultry in the affected countries in Asia. Therefore, care should be taken to avoid contact, when feasible, with live, well-appearing, sick, or dead poultry and any surfaces that may have been contaminated by poultry, or their feces or secretions. Transmission of H5N1 viruses to two persons through consumption of uncooked duck blood may also have occurred in Vietnam in 2005. Therefore, consumption of uncooked poultry or poultry products, including blood, should be avoided.

http://www.cdc.gov/travel/other/avian_flu_ig_americans_abroad_032405.htm

[kestrel91316]

11. Ok, what about this:

"Therefore, care should be taken to avoid contact, when feasible, with live, well-appearing, sick, or dead poultry" - if we are to avoid contact with them when they are alive and look healthy, when they are sick, or when they are dead, JUST WHEN ARE WE ALLOWED to have contact with poultry, since that about covers their entire life? When I buy poultry in the store, it's quite dead, but that's to be avoided? But I can't raise chickens myself because I would then have contact with them while they are alive and appear healthy?

Maybe they mean we should have no contact with any poultry at all unless somebody else has cooked it already, but I don't want somebody else cooking my chickens, thank you very much. I think I'll go eat some beans and rice.

And NO, I don't need any smartass comments from the animal rights or vegetarian contingent.

[JoFerret]

12. If Austria had had its way

then Turkey would not be being considered for the EEC. And - of course this would keep this asian bird flu out of Europe. (For sure you know that some are thinking just this.)

[muriel_volestrangler]

14. Except that it appears to be in Romania too

(which is another EU candidate, by chance).

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=1836215&mesg_id=1836215

[CHIMO]

15. More bird flu on second Delaware farm

DOVER, Delaware (AP) -- Officials took swift action after a second case of bird flu was found in Delaware, ordering the slaughter of 72,000 chickens and the quarantine of 80 farms as they tried to avert more foreign bans on a billion-dollar export industry.

The chickens, from a flock in Sussex County, were killed Tuesday afternoon, said Delaware Secretary of Agriculture Michael Scuse.

Officials said they ordered the destruction of the birds, being raised by an independent farm under contract for poultry giant Perdue Farms Inc., to prevent the spread of the disease.

"This now is a very, very serious matter. We have a multibillion-dollar industry at stake," Scuse said.

http://www.cnn.com/2004/HEALTH/02/10/bird.flu.delaware.ap/

Everything old is new again.

[tlcandie]

16. If I recall correctly... Perdue produces the Natural chicken

w/o hormones, etc., no?

[Rainscents]

23. No! It's Hormones and chemical feed.

[OzarkDem]

17. Which version of the flu?

Doesn't say if its the garden variety avian flu or the H5N1 version.

And the blivet is just now asking scientists to develop a vaccine? Does he have any idea how long that takes?

[CHIMO]

19. Don't Know

Which version.

Here is a summary from the summer of 2005 from the CBC. It includes an outbreak of another version in Canada.

The next pandemic?

CBC News Online | Updated July 27, 2005


H5N1. A string of numbers and letters that has the World Health Organization deeply concerned.

It's one of 15 varieties of avian influenza – bird flu. So far, it's the only one that's shown any ability to directly infect humans. Twice.

"The virus has gained the ability to infect a large number of hosts … not only the chickens that it normally infects but tigers, cats and transmitted to humans, and there's some evidence that it's refining its genes, if you will. I'll suggest that it's pretty good evidence that this will probably be the next one."

In February 2004, another strain of avian influenza – H7N3 – swept through B.C.'s poultry industry. The province ordered more than 17 million birds killed. It took about six months for the province to be declared free of avian flu. While the outbreak was devastating to poultry farmers, no people got sick.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/background/avianflu/

If the birds can transmit the disease, then their migrations are a means of moving it around the world.

[kestrel91316]

24. I really don't want to hear that part about infecting cats................

:scared:

Nightmare scenario: H5N1 mutates so it not only propagates in and kills humans, but propagates in and kills domestic cats, and the cats can spread it to people. If this happens my practice will immediately cease to exist. Or as soon as all of my patients have been carted away and destroyed by the health dept. Plus, I would be in the direct line of fire and probably die. Because vets won't be high priority for getting the vaccine.

I need a drink.

[kestrel91316]

22. The H5N1 vaccine was developed in 2003, but it has been in testing

for 2 years and now they need to ramp up production. These things take time.

[kestrel91316]

21. This is ordinary run-of-the-mill bird flu here in the US right now.

The nasty Asian version has not made it to the US........YET.

[CHIMO]

53. Following

Up on your response I went back to the original post reference to find out what version was/is in Turkey. The site is now blocked. So is the version the is in Turkey the dangerous one?

[Delphinus]

46. It's only

a "very, very serious matter" because money - THE ALMIGHTY GOD MONEY - is involved. That's it. Forget the fact it could kill lots of people.

I am sick, sick, sick to death of everything revolving around THE ALMIGHTY GOD MONEY!!! /rant off

[DemoTex]

18. What happens if it spreads into Iraq?

I mean, it does seem to have the potential of being an equal opportunity killer. What are the scenarios for a pandemic in a war zone?

[Lisa]

20. stressed people crowded together, lack of services ...

In a word -- bad. A lot of the population will already be affected by substandard housing, poverty, malnutrition, water-borne diseases, etc. -- at the very least, the stress of experiencing war for years (actually, decades) will have affected their immune systems. The rapid spread of influenza in 1918 was aided by these kinds of factors (not just the movement of troops and the mass migrations of civilians).

[Irish Mastiff]

26. It is widespread now. Please go to the following site and read the headers

http://www.recombinomics.com/whats_new.html

It isn't pretty.

H5N1 has also been found in Kuwait.
http://www.recombinomics.com/News/09190507/WBF_Kuwait.html

[YouthInAsia]

50. well, at least the one in Toronto turned out to be legionnaires

[doc03]

27. Anyone remember Swine Flu

When Ford was President we had the Swine Flu scare, if I remember right at that time the 1918 flu was said to have been Swine Flu. Now they claim the 1918 flu was Avian Flu. As I remember the Swine Flu was a big scare for nothing and many people actually died from the vaccine. I think it's just another example of news media hype. When they said there would be 10000 casualties from hurricane Katrina I said I doubt there would be more than a 1000 casualties and got flamed for that statement.

[Irish Mastiff]

28. The same thing may happen again.

The question is not will it happen now, the question is "Can it happen?"

Katrina is a good example of the mindset. People have been saying for years a big hurricane could flood New Orleans. The levees were not strengthened. The government wasn't ready to respond when the Big One actually hit.

Will this instance of Bird Flu be "The Big One"? We have no way to know. It could be. It definitely has the lethality. If it doesn't combine with a more easily transmissable flu virus, it will wind up being like the Swine Flu. Just a scare. No big deal.
If it does combine, we could have a recurrance of the 1918 Spanish Flu effects, with millions dying.
I'd rather be prepared, the consequences are too serious not to.
Unfortunately, the Bush administration has put another political hack, just like Brownie, in charge of the federal response. They are still working on a draft plan to respond to a flu pandemic, exactly the same as Katrina. We have only stockpiled enough Tamiflu for 4.8 million people, by far not enough. We have no structure in place to manufacture massive amounts of vaccine. Remember last years flu vaccine?

Just as an aside, the official death toll for Katrina is over 1,000 people. However, over 10,000 people are missing, and it has been over a month. We had the same problem at the twin towers. The missing were finally included in the death count.

[doc03]

30. The news media said 50000 would be dead on 911

and I have heard as many as 40000 predicted from the hurricane in New Orleans alone. I was referring to the predicted death toll in New Orleans alone and it has not reached 1000 yet. The news media also predicted something like 50000 US casualties in the Gulf War and several thousand US deaths to take Baghdad. It is just wishful thinking on the part of the news media in my opinion. If there are 10000 missing people and New Orleans was like a bowl were did the other 9000 bodies go?

[Irish Mastiff]

35. The Katrina toll is undoubtably higher than the official tool.

The official toll for Louisiana was 1003 today. In New Orleans they still haven't searched all the houses, although they called off the search.
The death toll they report isn't the total number of dead bodies they have. They only count in the official death toll those who drowned, were killed by wind, or if they died in a hospital because of the electricity going out. Everybody who died of dehydration or heat stroke isn't counted. In Jefferson Parish, they had 152 bodies on Sept 5th. Only 20 of them were counted as hurricane deaths. If that same ratio holds for all of New Orleans, we are looking at closer to 7000 dead.
Also in New Orleans, some bodies were tagged by relatives, who then delivered them to the authorities. When they went to get the bodies back for burial, there was no record of the body.

Read all of the thread:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=104x4953733

Tell me what you think after you have finished it.


It Mississippi it is even stranger. You don't count in the death toll there unless you are identified. After a body has been left out in 90 to 100 degree weather, floating in water, being eaten by rats, it is rather difficult to be identified. The entire death toll in the state is 221. In just one town they had reported over 800 bodies. You do the math.

[Delphinus]

47. Thanks, Irish, for this post.

I'm glad to have read it - I remember something earlier in the aftermath of how the counted bodies and was shocked at how they could get away with counting like that.

Also, from one relative newbie to another, Welcome! :toast:

[RONSTOO]

29. interesting note

Jeffrey Taubenberger (and several associates) recently succeeded in pulling off one of the most spectacular accomplishments in contemporary biological history. They recapitulated the entire genome of the H1N1 strain of influenza virus that was responsible for the 1918 pandemic. Their conclusion? It was a pure avian strain. The implications, and ramifications of this research? Colossal, to say the least. An antigenic shift is now conclusively proven to be unnecessary for H5N1 to become a fully-realized, entirely efficient H-to-H pathogen. Taubenberger's (et al) blueprint was recapitulated in a laboratory model. It's the real thing. H5N1 is following H1N1's trajectory...right down to the incorporation of the handful of molecular reconfigurations that allowed H1N1 to become a completely efficient H-to-H transmittible pathogen. We're watching the thing in real-time, now. Welcome to everybody's worst nightmare.

[doc03]

31. The same thing was said in the 1970's only then they

said it was Swine flu and it turned out the only deaths were form the vaccine.

[nebula]

32. Why is Tamiflu produced in only one factory in Sweden?

Why can't the Swedish makers license this life-saving medication so it can be produced all over the world?? Is it because they want to keep it to themselves to maximize profits off of its exclusive production?

Another explanation?

[nebula]

33. Well, if a world wide Avian epidemic does break out

The US will be one of the least prepared countries for it, with only 4 million doses of anti-Avian medication. Many countries already have enough doses to cover all their citizens, or at least in much greater proportion than the measly 4 million in the US.

Looks like Georgie was too busy playing soldier, squandering our surplus on a useless war rather than using some of that money it to stock up on Tamiflu. The Chimp will be directly responsible for the deaths of millions of Americans.

[Carolab]

34. Tamiflu isn't effective, anyway.

Relenza apparently is.

[nebula]

37. "Tamiflu isn't effective, anyway. Relenza apparently is."

I dont agree Tamiflu isn't effective.

Though it would have been nice to have a big supply of whatever anti-Avian products we can get our hands on. Unless I'm mistaken, we have a massive shortage of both.


However, we do have a massive fleet of shiny new fighter jets that we can probably utilize to blow the various flu-carrying terrorist ducks out of the sky. Yeah, thats the ticket out of this. I feel safer already. :eyes:


I still don't understand why Tamiflu production is apparently limited to a single factory in Sweden. Mind-boggling.

[Carolab]

38. Better read this. A Tamiflu-resistant strain has emerged.

http://www.medpagetoday.com/PublicHealthPolicy/PublicHealth/tb/1850

{snip}

Review

HONG KONG, Sept. 30-Scientists here are reporting that a strain of the H5N1 avian flu virus is showing resistance to Tamiflu (oseltamivir), the antiviral many health organizations and governments are stockpiling to protect against a potential pandemic.

Tamiflu is proving less effective against the H5N1 strain that surfaced in northern Vietnam earlier this year, Hong Kong scientists reported. The greatest number of human deaths from avian flu have occurred in Vietnam since the start of the outbreak in 2003.

They also reported that general resistance to the drug is growing in Japan, where Tamiflu is prescribed routinely for common human influenzas. Thus far, H5N1 has been detected only in poultry in Japan.

In light of this bad news, public health experts are now calling on pharmaceutical manufacturers to rev up production of an alternative antiviral Relenza (zanamivir).

{more at link}

[nebula]

39. That's really scary

What about Relenza?

[Carolab]

41. Read the article linked in my post. It discusses Relenza. n/t

[Mojorabbit]

42. Not true

TORONTO (CP) - It appears a misunderstanding, not a mutation, is behind recent reports suggesting the H5N1 avian flu strain is developing resistance to the drug Tamiflu.

The professor of pharmacology from Hong Kong University quoted as warning of an emerging resistant strain of the virus says he was citing old data, not new evidence, when he gave an interview last week.

He was trying to urge GlaxoSmithKline to reintroduce an injectable form of their rival flu drug, Relenza. The resulting report suggested Tamiflu was becoming less useful - a claim that was widely repeated.

"My point is to emphasize on the introduction of injectable drugs. But they use a headline 'Resistant H5N1 appears in Vietnam,' " Dr. William Chui, who is also chief of the pharmacy service of Hong Kong's Queen Mary Hospital, said in an interview.

[Carolab]

43. Interesting. It would seem Glaxo might be trying some "PR".

Perhaps trying to push Tamiflu out of the picture...I also read that the company, which has an exclusive right to market Relenza (which is made by Biota) hasn't done such a great job of it.

Thanks for the new information.

[nebula]

44. Came across article on WaPo

about a promising antiviral drug called Peramivir made by BioCryst of Alabama. Could be more effective (faster-working) than Tamiflu or Relenza in treating Avian. It's injected into the bloodstream instead of swallowed or inhaled.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/10/08/AR2005100800314.html

[gkhouston]

52. actually, it may be PR on the PR.

I recall reading the original artical on proMED last May. Tamiflu isn't totally ineffective against the particular strain they tested, but you need a higher dose for 10 days instead of 7, I believe, and it reduces mortality. Note the word "reduces"...

[nebula]

48. A major problem with Relenza

It has to be inhaled, which wont do you much good when you're suffering from shallow breathing, a typical flu symptom.

[Carolab]

49. True about the inhalation.

Also, I read something about Relenza being especially hard on young and old people.

Do you know anything about Vira38 or Sambucol? They are supposed to boost the immune system and help prevent flu.

[area51]

36. "The US will be one of the least prepared countries for it...."

Another reason why we will be one of the least-prepared countries for a flu pandemic is b/c we have the insane, for-profit, unaffordable, non-universal healthcare. Nazi party to U.S. citizens: if you get sick, go fsck yourself & die. Welcome to YerOnYerOwnistan.

[nebula]

45. Which is why...

I hope to high-tail it to Canada by the time any outbreak occurs.

Americans are so screwed...

[YouthInAsia]

51. me too. And I have stocked up on gas masks

[pola]

55. Would bird flu not be in Canada - or are they just more prepared ?

[pola]

56. do you have dual citizenship, or are you applying for it ?

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

40. All I can picture is

Rove in a cropduster.

[goforit]

54. And I'm sure Bush has given it his blessing.

[CHIMO]

57. Bird Flu Reaches Europe

Pushing further towards western Europe, bird flu has reached Turkey and Romania, though it is unclear whether the cases there involve the H5N1 viral strain that poses a threat to humans.

Officials said the disease likely came to Turkey from migratory birds attracted to a nature reserve near the quarantined farm.

http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,1564,1735911,00.html

[Bushwick Bill]

58. Semi-tinfoil time

Great series of articles at FTW today about the geopolitical and domestic implications of the pandemic.
http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/101005_world_stories.shtml