LAT, Brownstein: Math Doesn't Add Up for a Democrat-Run Senate

[DeepModem Mom]

Math Doesn't Add Up for a Democrat-Run Senate
The party needs to win seats in Bush territory for any realistic chance to retake the chamber.

By Ronald Brownstein, Times Staff Writer


WASHINGTON — Growing Republican dominance of Senate seats in states where George W. Bush has run best looms as the principal obstacle for Democrats hoping to retake the chamber in 2006 or beyond.

With the recent struggle over judicial nominations underscoring the stakes, the battle for Senate control could attract unprecedented levels of money and energy next year.

Democrats are optimistic about their chances of ousting GOP senators in Pennsylvania and Rhode Island, states that voted for Democratic presidential candidates John F. Kerry in 2004 and Al Gore in 2000. But the Democrats are unlikely to regain a Senate majority — in 2006 or soon thereafter — unless they can reverse the GOP consolidation of Senate seats in states that have supported Bush.

Since 2000, both parties have gained Senate seats in the states they typically carry in presidential campaigns. But this political partitioning provides a clear advantage for Republicans because so many more states backed Bush in his bids for the presidency....

***

Democratic pollster Geoff Garin noted that in the last two elections, Democrats have come close to taking the White House, even though they've lost more states than they've won. That's because the high-population states they did win — such as New York and California — have large numbers of electoral college votes. But, regardless of population, each state has two Senate seats, so Democrats must compete on a broader map to realistically contend for a Senate majority....


http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-senate31may31,0,6041179.story?coll=la-home-nation

[autorank]

1. "Math Doesn't Add Up for LAT Surviving, Alternative Soon"

...the autorank news service.

Brownstein is a nay-sayer extraordinaire! Bye, bye LAT.

[baby_bear]

4. Brownstein is right on in this case

I heard Biden mention on the Senate floor the other day that the 44 Democrat senators represent 10 million more people than do the 55 Republican senators (I believe that was the number - it might have been even more).

We need new regional strategies if we are ever to recapture the Senate.

Why bash the LATimes or Brownstein for telling an uncomfortable truth?

b_b

[autorank]

15. One word: MONTANA

On edit: Well, maybe more than one word. Montana was the reddest of the red. Who would have thought that we'd get a governor and a near take over of the state legislature. WE DID. Why? Because people have reached their "tipping point." That can't be measured in geography or past voting trends. In MT, a good Democratic Party put up a great candidate for Governor (he's the guy who almost beat Conrad Burns previously) and good legislative candidates and we won.

That can happen in all sorts of states, I respectfulliy submit, if it can happen in Montana. Rejoice at the possibilities.

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

31. Also note Burns' approval rating in the mid-30s.

We may be taking him down very shortly too.

[autorank]

34. Well, that brightens up my afternoon. What an accomplishment.

I'll be fascinated to see who we come up with to help him retire!

:hi:

[forgethell]

27. You haven't noticed

how common that is around here??

[baby_bear]

57. Yes, I have.

*sigh*

b_b

[LisaM]

29. I think it's more - something like 30 million

The states Democratic Senators come from represent 161 million people, to the Republicans' 131 million. I got that figure from the New Yorker, but have read it elsewhere.

[baby_bear]

56. You're right, LisaM

I didn't want to overstate it, but you are correct. Thanks!

b_b

[alfredo]

33. Dean seems to be doing something like that now.

he has hit a lot of red states the past few weeks, working out a plan of attack.

[cestpaspossible]

50. 'Brownstein' and 'truth' in the same sentence

gives me the same feeling as looking at a mispelled werd.

[springhill]

67. We need a new voting system.........

We will never win back the senate, win the Presidency, or any other election that really matters until the massive voting fraud is uncovered and done away with.

[Freddie Stubbs]

77. It is unfortunately quite fashionable to bash the media here on DU, even

when all they are doing is reporting the truth (when that truth is bad news).

[goclark]

8. I canceled my subscription

They keep calling and begging me to start again .

I told them that I do not subscribe to papers that support a Nazi Regime - except for Robert Scheer.

[autorank]

16. I'm with you. Cancelled my WaPost in '98, "Monicacrapgate"

Punish them with free reading on the web. Haha. I just can't stand these CM (corporate media) like Brownstein. He knows how to get column space, how to get TV time; lick boots.

I like your message to them.

I'm a Clark person too.

NEW LEADERS FOR A NEW DEMOCRATIC PARTY!

Contact the DNC and Give 'em Hell About NOT Acting on Election Fraud

[cestpaspossible]

45. Brownstein is one of the most skilled spinsters out there.

He does a good job of sounding reasonable, but the message from his 'analysis' is almost always the same: the GOP will win.

[Cha]

72. Oh yeah, and the US is doing

so well under gopers rule. What's in it for brownstein with all the gop wins?

I'd like to see him have to eat those stories.

[Freddie Stubbs]

65. The truth often hurts

and shooting the messenger doens't do any good. As you obviously can't dispute the information in the article, you simply attack the author. Harry Reid himself has said the party has an uphill battle in recapturing the Senate.

[yurbud]

75. what's the autorank news service?

[napi21]

2. So what seats do we know are going to be possible?

I really think Casey can beat Santorum.

Frist is retiring from the Senate, and if we get the right candidate, we can get a Dem in Tn.

If Sen. Spector can't finish his term, the Dem Gov. from Pa. will appoint a replacement.

That's 3 strong possibilities that I see.

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

5. See my post below

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

3. I would dispute that on general principle.

In this coming election cycle, we have legitimate shots at Montana (Burns polling at 35%, and won't be replaced in primary because he's a far right winger), Missouri (Talent in the exact same position as Burns), Rhode Island (Chafee - enough said), Pennsylvania (Casey polling ahead of Santorum, a right wing extremist in a state that has gone to Gore and Kerry), and Tennessee (open seat). Also, the highly popular Governor Warner of Virginia is going to take a shot at Senator Allen.

Our only true risks in 2006 are the Nelson twins. Bill Nelson of Florida isn't really all that vulnerable, but who knows if Jeb Bush winds up running. Ben Nelson, no question about it, might have a problem.

Simply put, our possible gains far outweigh our risks for 2006. 2008 shapes well too. Allard (CO) only won with 51% in a heavily Republican 2002 in a state that could easily trend Democratic. Coleman (MN) is ripe for the picking. Dole (NC) versus Edwards could be VERY interesting. Sununu (NH) didn't win by much in 2002 either. Tim Johnson (SD) and Mary Landrieu (LA) look like our only risks. And there's a lot of time left between now and then for things to change, and being that the Republican power has likely peaked, it looks to change in our favor.

[JerseygirlCT]

7. I like your picture

if losing the Nelsons and Landrieu are our big problems, that's not much of a loss.

[napi21]

11. What's the chances for Nelson-Fl. if K. Harris runs against him?

I heard them talk about it this morning on cspan. A quote in some paper said she is checking her chances of winning, because she doesn't want to risk it all if she isn't convinced she can beat Nelson.

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

12. Last I saw, Nelson stomps Harris.

On edit: Strategic Vision, a Republican polling firm, has Nelson ahead of Harris, 48-41%. A 7 point gap from a friendly polling firm isn't good news for Cruella DeVille.

[Tempest]

25. That's why Harris has refused to say if she plans on running

And it's pissing off the GOP because they won't have time to find someone to run against Nelson if Harris backs out.

Harris' seat is in jeopardy. Her approval rating is in the low 40% area.

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

26. Yeah, but she also leads in the Republican primary polls by a lot

She would win the nomination for Senate in a walk, even if she IS in trouble in her district. I'm betting she takes her chances in the Senate race, knowing they're a little better than her chances of keeping the House seat.

[napi21]

28. Ohhh, I hope that right! I'm not madly in love with Nelson, but

that evil...., well, Cruella is a great name for her!

[OzarkDem]

61. Remember

you're going to need double digit leads to pull off any of these races in able to offset vote rigging and last minute media blitzes.

Raise the bar - aspire to really win races, not just squeak by.

[Kolesar]

24. So, Edwards has to run for Senate again...

...tough sledding.

[SoCalDem]

37. Edwards is coming back to the senate?? Where did you read that?

:shrug:

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

39. I didn't - don't quote me!

[Lexingtonian]

44. it's looking better and better, really

I don't think the Maine Senate seat should be counted out yet- Olympia Snowe may not be healthy enough to run again, and Tom Allen will make it into a competitive race at a minimum. If she retires it's a walk for Allen.

Arlen Specter is pretty darn sick. It's a relatively curable form of cancer, but Ed Rendell may well have a shot at appointing a replacement even before the '06 elections. I'd guess Barbara Hafer would be first in line.

There's a lot more Republican vulnerability out there in Nevada (Ensign), Arizona (Kyl), and Ohio (DeWine), and (as you mention) Virginia. Democrats are waiting and not tipping their hand on those yet- another year of this sort of Republican deterioration, and those seats could be ripe for the taking. The problem is getting good candidates to run in Nevada and Ohio. I don't know about Nevada's talent pool- though Reid surely has someone to push and help- but in Ohio I think this is Sherrod Brown's golden opportunity.

I don't think Ben Nelson is in much trouble at this point- Republicans not getting Johans or Osbourne to run against him pretty much handed him the seat. Bob Nelson probably also needs a year until he polls a few percent over 50% consistently as the Florida electorate, not the quickest bunch, sorts itself out.

I'm more worried about Maryland than most. Rove is going to put a lot of money and effort into that one, and there is a relatively large opportunity for Republicans in that Maryland has (due to its strong machine politics until recently) avoided the internal Democratic shakeout between liberals and conservatives that has been taking place in almost all Blue States. It should end up a Democratic win no matter the particular candidates, but I wouldn't be surprised by a 52-48 outcome. Bush's people got pretty close to an upset in the state in November, so the vulnerability is real.

My opinion of Harold Ford Jr. is not an enthusiastic one, probably not even an approving one. I don't see him winning, and even if he does he's apparently not going to be doing much in the way of pushing for social progress. Conservative socioeconomically climbing black people deserve representation in the Senate, of course, but for the time being the social policy agenda is where the emphasis is going to be. He'll be better off running for Lamar Alexander's seat in '08.

So I see the '06 elections as one more intensification of the Red/Blue semigeographical division, but this time the Blue becoming more intense- Republicans getting cleared out, as Democrats were out of Red States in '02 and '04- and things tipping Democrats' way in the swing states.

For '08 I'll agree with Allard and Coleman being on the outs and Dole retiring with the North Carolina seat for the having. I'll add Domenici's seat as a definite win, with McCain's and Bond's and Grassley's slightly possible should they resign prematurely. Sununu I don't see as vulnerable- he has quietly moderated in a pretty remarkable way, as has Gregg- and is very much in line with his surly-but-moderating New Hampshire voters and the two are probably meaningfully Indies once Democrats win the majority. Collins is not going to last long as Republican Senator if/when Snowe goes; that's another de facto Indie switch if/when Democrats win the Senate majority, and an '08 opportunity in any case. And there are Lamar Alexander's and Mitch McConnell's seats to look at for opportunity.

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

49. One correction

Specter just got re-elected - he's not up again until 2010.

I agree about Sherrod Brown having a shot, but Kyl and Ensign are pretty well entrenched. I think it'd take a lot to get those guys out, although I DO see a possibility were they to leave their offices for other reasons. I think of Kyl and Ensign like Byrd and Rockefeller - we'd probably lose WV if not for them.

I share your concern for Maryland, but I think it'll still take a lot to make the state turn. There is a slight trend though that we have to keep an eye on. We still have a number of very strong candidates though, while the Republicans don't really have any outside of Ehrlich, who doesn't look good for even being re-elected at this point.

Ford has big problems with his dad being indicted on accepting bribes. I'm hoping someone else tosses their hat into the ring.

[Lexingtonian]

53. Specter really is that ill

Cancer is brutal and can be very quick; he was diagnosed with it sometime this winter. He looks pretty beaten up by it. Giving him two years seems pretty generous, really, even if everything goes pretty well- chemo does a lot of additional damage. It might even be good if he lasted that long- I'm not sure of the laws in Pennsylvania, but putting two Senate races on the ballot there in '06 for an appointee to finish out his term plus the Governor race would be pretty difficult on all sides.

I'd post the link if I could find it easily, but there was polling in Arizona recently that had Napolitano reelect in the high fifties (approval around seventy) and Kyl approval just above forty. Hardline Republicans in Arizona (and Nevada) are really hardline, but they make up a good bit less of Republicans there than in the South. The libertarian, non'religious' sort of Republicans dominate between the Rockies and Sierras outside of the Mormonized parts (Utah and the Snake/Columbia watershed). Basically, these people are Republicans by habits, economics, and due to racism- but realism has set in that the Southwest is going majority Latino and intermarried with Latinos, no matter who runs things, and that the (even in good times highly precarious) subsidization-dependent economics of the Southwest are being walloped brutally by their own. (Texas and Florida are their Party's economic priorities now- interestingly, the two states that wealthy and company owning Republicans cluster into, lack income taxation, have hordes of poor people, and grossly lack in serious economic crime law enforcement....)

Ensign is undistinguished and a first termer and got 55% in 2000, which was quite exactly the Republican vote proportion of the state of that time. It was 52% for Bush this November even with 15-20% larger turnout, maxing out everything Republicans had, in line with a national 3-3.5% Democratic trend. With continued Republican desertions and continued Democratic trend of new voters it's within reach. Nevadans also finally seem tired of Republicans in state government- Gibbons (if there's an entrenched Republican incumbent in the state, it's him) is leaving his House seat (Reno/Tahoe and all of rural Nevada) where he got 70% victories all the time to run for governor. Gibbons has fallen from 60ish numbers a few months ago to 46% and continues to fall, and all his competitors for that office and hardline Republicans (they all are) for all other state offices in '06 are also nosediving to low 40s across the board. It's not particular to candidates, it ignores incumbency, and It's Happening. Nevadans say that Gibbons not clearing 50% for him for governor in his House district is the great shocker of the polling. Democrats continue to poll in the usual place for Nevada, in the low 30s, at this point.

I'm sure that there's still a bunch of benefit of the doubt moderates have for hardline Republicans and there will be a rebound- but it won't be strong or enduring, and Democrats should be able to collapse it in a lot of places. As it is I'm satisfied that the primary problem, moderate Republican goodwill toward their hardliners and the hardliner policies/agenda, is expending itself rapidly and fully west of the Rockies and north of the Missouri and Ohio and Potomac Rivers. The same thing is happening in the South but it's hard to see it going quite far enough anywhere except Florida and ranching country for Democrats to see gains in '06- the reservoirs of latent conservatism and cult mentality and misinformation in the region are large enough that they will take a few more years to drain.

I'm actually watching the DeLay game to see how bad things really are for their side and what they propose to do about it. Things are so bad for Ol' Tom at home in Texas that the RNC has apparently already rolled out the '06 game plan for beating back the expected DeLay Ethics attack the DCCC clearly has in mind to play everywhere. It's to attack straight at Nancy Pelosi and tie her to abortion and feminism and, probably further along, gay rights. The Other Side is really falling back, is ready to completely give up on defending their foreign policy or economic policy or ethics to their own. That's an awful lot that is being conceded, a real admission that they don't count on their own base actually believing in their nominal policies any more, only in their defensive positions on "values". Even in the classical 'God, guns, gays' triad of that they've apparently run out of half of the God part (the public prayer and Bibliodolatry and schooling agenda) and aren't finding dry fuel in the guns and gays parts either.

I'm optimistic. I think even a last intensification of Culture War is too late to save enough of them.

[Prodemsouth]

54. Yeah you got voting machines in Maryland now. I was in MD at

the time they ran a silly hokey looking ad campaign on the virtues of voting machines. As a Georgian (we started using them here in 2000 Thanks Cathy Cox!! Dem DUers should know not to support her!!) I said to myself uh oh- it was disturbing to see this happening in MD, I got a sinking feeling when I saw those ads) And then the election info on Bush in your post!!...this is setting the state up for a Repug takeover!! Mark my word... that LT Governor will be your next Senator. It will seem "logical" to the media whores they will say he is "African American that cut into the Dems chances of retaining the seat and don't forget Bush nearly had an upset there in 04, they elected a Repug Governor in 02 etc etc.." Don't trust those damn machines. I knew Sarbanes retiring sounded strange... he knows what is going on.

[Bake]

71. I wouldn't count on McConnell's seat in KY

Howdy Doody is pretty popular up there.

BAke

[OzarkDem]

58. Overly optimistic

Same kind of naive approach our Dem leaders have taken for the last 3 elections with disastrous results.

Let's get realistic this time and plan on giving ourselves a much bigger margin for error. For every race you think we can win, plan on winning it by at least 15% or more - it will take that big of a swing to overcome Repub vote rigging and suppression.

Otherwise don't get my hopes up.

If you think you need a net of 2 Dem wins, make it 4 or 6 instead. Aim high, you have to.

Don't be lazy or cavalier and don't take any race for granted. Get out there and bust your hump, don't just sit around the home office pontificating.

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

66. You know what? You're right.

We have no fucking chance of winning. No reason at all to be optimistic. Let's just mail the whole thing in.

Why in the fucking world would you advocate pessimism? Get a grip!

[FloridaPat]

6. The last 2 senate runs were fixed. Just like the last 2 presidential

elections were fixed. The Democrats are going to have to get fair elections in all states before they ever see daylight again. Unless 90% of the people vote against the repubs, we are screwed.

[SoCalDem]

38. EXACTLY.. all the hand wringing and pondering does NOTHINGl

if the repubes are still in charge of the voting EQUIPMENT :(and the press...and the polling data...

What we end up with is elections that are "close enough" to be believed...and that match up fairly well with the bogus polling data that precedes the election..

Georgia was their first real attempt at an over-all takeover, and their data did not match up..hence the cancellation of exit polls....but by '04, they had it all 'under control'..

[KittyWampus]

48. Yes, This Article Is A Prelude To Stealing Another Round. Media Bleets

constantly that Democrats can't win, ignore positive developements for our side and then publicize manipulated poll numbers.

[bluedeminredstate]

9. Why not just run the final headline

they're dying to write: "DEMOCRATIC PARTY DEAD, DEEMED 'IRRELEVENT' BY GOP" and get it over with?

After watching the segment on The Today Show this morning that explored Hillary Clinton's evil ambition, duplicity, and why she thinks she should run for President (facts not in evidence, BTW) in a country that hates her heartless, scheming guts, I've had it with every news story that purports to demonstrate why the Democrats really just suck or makes predictions about them in any way.

Whores. Nothing but a bunch of whores who give it away.

:grr:

[AndyTiedye]

18. The Presstitutes Don't Give It Away

The FCC has been very good to the big media corporations.
They can now own far more of the market than ever before.
They can buy up the newspapers in their markets.

And then there are the "Jeff Gannons" of "journalism".

[xxqqqzme]

30. hmmmm, LAT, today show,

cspan all on the same day - same message - hmmmmmm - norquist must have handed out the memo @ last wednesday's meeting so he could enjoy a long weekend.

[librechik]

68. They're not sluts--they get paid very very well for their whoredom

most journos slave away honestly for pennies, meanwhile a handful are overcompensated so lavishly it's no wonder they'll sellout their integrity, their heritage, and even their children.

[still_one]

10. The 2000 election was important

the 2004 election was critical, and we blew it

In the next few weeks, see how many battles we win in congress, that will foretell 2006

Can someone tell me a battle that the dems won since 2000 in Congress?

1. bankrupcy bill - lost
2. let the president choose when to go into iraq - lost
3. cutting medicade - lost
4. medicare prescription drug bill - lost
5. patriot act, national id - lost

and look what is coming down the road:

1. stem cell research - * will veto it
2. the so-called fillibuster compromise - * will get all the radical judges in
3. bolton nomination - 98% of the repukes will vote with the party, that will not be the case with the dems, and the bastard will get in
4. socical security privitization - watch how the distortion takes place. Not only do I think they will create private accounts, but they will also start to privitize medicare

As long as the democrats in congress stop compromising, and fight like an opposition party should, we will not regain control

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

13. Better question for you

Name multiple victories within a 4 year time span for a minority party in Congress without a President from their own party. I bet you'll have a particularly difficult time with that one.

[still_one]

14. good point

problem is during 2000-2004 most of the Democrats in congress just sat back and gave * everything he wanted. Now we are a minority party without much fight. When the repugs were a minority party, they fought tooth and nail, we just sit on a rock and watch the day go by...

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

17. Gave? What power did we have to stop it?

If we had more power, I guarantee you that it would've been used. And the Republicans didn't have to fight against the specter of 9/11 either. People forget that we were dealing with a President that had 80+% approval ratings. Anything he said was like the word of God. The truth is we've just started in the last 18 or so months to even be ABLE to question him without looking like Osama's second cousin. And I give Howard Dean all the credit for that - he made it acceptable again. (He still wasn't my choice for nominee. I love him as DNC chair though.)

[AndyTiedye]

19. Without the Reichstag Fire, I Mean 9/11...

...Booshler and Cheney would have been impeached for stealing the
2000 election, for Enron, or both.

Set the wayback machine to summer of 2001.
Jeffords has abandoned the Republican party. The Senate is now Democratic!
The honeymoon in Congress is over in record time.
There is buzz about more defections in the works.
Enron is being investigated.
The Florida recount is being investigated.
Bush*'s ratings are already in the low 40's.
He is fast turning into an albatross that may take the Republican party down with him,
so impeachment and prison were becoming a real possibility for * and Darth Cheney.

What to do? What would grandpoppy's Prescott's old friend Adolph do?

Who benefitted from 9/11?

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

20. There are many interesting parallels to Nazi Germany.

It's like they decided that if they just stay away from genocide and don't invade TOO many other countries, they can keep this going for a while.

[still_one]

32. 80% approval rating???

I don't think so

Kerry ran a terrible campaign, and so did Gore

If we had started asking those questions earlier, instead of in the "last 18 months" it would have showed we stood for something

Russ Feingold, Barbara Boxer, Robert Byrd, and others were NOT afraid to talk truth to power. We are now paying the price for those that didn't

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

36. How quickly ye forgets

It was only July 2003 when the last time his job approval ratings were consistantly above 60%. A year prior to that, he was consistantly above 70%. We had a severely uphill battle if we wanted to criticize Bush for the vast majority of his term of office to this point. We had no chance and no hope of talking "truth" prior to Howard Dean's emergence in the primaries.

http://www.pollingreport.com/BushJob.htm

8/4-6/03 60 36 4 1,003
7/25-27/03 58 38 4 1,006
7/18-20/03 59 38 3 1,003
7/7-9/03 62 34 4 1,006
6/27-29/03 61 36 3 1,003
6/12-15/03 63 33 4 1,006
6/9-10/03 62 34 4 1,029
5/30 - 6/1/03 64 32 4 1,019
5/19-21/03 66 30 4 1,014
5/5-7/03 69 28 3 1,005
4/22-23/03 70 26 4 1,001
4/14-16/03 71 24 5 1,011
4/7-9/03 69 26 5 1,018
4/5-6/03 70 27 3 1,009
3/29-30/03 71 26 3 1,012
3/24-25/03 69 27 4 1,008
3/22-23/03 71 25 4 1,020
3/14-15/03 58 38 4 1,007
3/3-5/03 57 37 6 1,003
2/24-26/03 57 37 6 1,003
2/17-19/03 58 37 5 1,002
2/7-9/03 61 34 5 1,000
2/3-6/03 59 35 6 1,001
1/31 - 2/2/03 61 35 4 1,003
1/23-25/03 60 36 4 1,000
1/20-22/03 58 36 6 1,006
1/13-16/03 61 34 5 1,000
1/10-12/03 58 37 5 1,002
1/3-5/03 63 32 5 1,000
12/19-22/02 61 32 7 1,007
12/16-17/02 63 33 4 1,009
12/9-10/02 63 32 5 1,009
12/5-8/02 64 29 7 1,001
11/22-24/02 65 28 7 1,017
11/11-14/02 66 26 8 1,001
11/8-10/02 68 27 5 1,014
10/31 - 11/3/02 63 29 8 1,221
10/21-22/02 67 28 5 1,018
10/14-17/02 62 31 7 1,002
10/3-6/02 67 28 5 1,502
9/23-26/02 68 26 6 800
9/20-22/02 66 30 4 1,010
9/13-16/02 70 26 4 803
9/5-8/02 66 30 4 1,004
9/2-4/02 66 29 5 1,003
8/19-21/02 65 28 7 801
8/5-8/02 68 26 6 1,007
7/29-31/02 71 23 6 1,003
7/26-28/02 69 26 5 1,004
7/22-24/02 69 24 7 1,005
7/9-11/02 73 21 6 1,004
6/28-30/02 76 19 5 1,019
6/21-23/02 73 21 6 1,020
6/17-19/02 74 20 6 1,005
6/7-8/02 74 18 8 800
6/3-6/02 70 23 7 1,010
5/28-29/02 77 17 6 1,003
5/20-22/02 76 17 7 1,002
5/6-9/02 76 19 5 1,012
4/29 - 5/1/02 77 20 3 1,002
4/22-24/02 77 17 6 1,009
4/8-11/02 75 20 5 1,003
4/5-7/02 76 19 5 1,009
3/22-24/02 79 17 4 1,011
3/8-9/02 80 14 6 802
3/4-7/02 77 18 5
3/1-3/02 81 14 5 863
2/8-10/02 82 14 4 1,001
2/4-6/02 82 14 4 1,011
1/25-27/02 84 13 3 1,011
1/11-14/02 83 13 4 1,008
1/7-9/02 84 12 4 1,015
12/14-16/01 86 11 3 1,019
12/6-9/01 86 10 4 1,002
11/26-27/01 87 8 5 1,025
11/8-11/01 87 9 4 1,005
11/2-4/01 87 9 4 1,012
10/19-21/01 88 9 3 1,006
10/11-14/01 89 8 3 1,011
10/5-6/01 87 10 3 819
9/21-22/01 * 90 6 4 1,005
9/14-15/01 86 10 4 1,032

[still_one]

41. I agree with you about Dean, we were completely gutless before that

The polls I am very skeptical about

Zogby, never gave * 70% approval

and remember the so-called polls also indicated that Gore was behind 3 to 10 points in the polls 2 weeks before the election

What I find interesting is that the press "appears" to accept this poll, but the the exit polls from the election

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

46. You can believe or disbelieve the polls.

Unfortunately, perception IS reality. Truth, for literally anything, is nothing more than the most widely accepted set of assertions. You're probably right (I know I am in agreement with you), but unless you can change everyone else's mind, you have to operate under these "facts".

Had we operated on what you and I believe to be true, that's a HUGE gamble that would probably have been irresponsible to take. And being honest about it, the immense negative spin that the media would've undertaken, it would have quickly become a self-fulfilling prophecy. The media would have made those poll figures completely true.

I really don't think we, as a party, had many choices from September 11, 2001 until about March 2004. This country has literally been brainwashed, and we're STILL working to get past that. I have faith that the tide IS turning though. There is only so long that they can play on people's fear before people get comfortable again, and at this point, when/if a terrorist attack DOES occur, there will only be one party to blame, because they've had all the power.

[still_one]

52. Actually Howard Dean did take that position

Anyway, I definitely hope the tide is turning. We will find out soon enough when Janius Brown, Bolton, and even stem cell legislation come up for a vote

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

63. Yep, and look at the beating Dean took.

It HAD to be someone like Dean, and I truly admire the man for taking the bullet for us. I will never forget that. But if the Democrats, as a party, took the stance Dean did, we would've been massacred.

[still_one]

69. no, I disagree

he would have done at least as good as Kerry. For one thing he spoke truth to power, people respect that. Like it or not Kerry was not consistent. The major mistake he made was bringing up his Viet Nam experience at the convention, and then NOT answering the swift pukes charges for 3 months while they trashed it. If he didn't WANT to defend his record he should have NEVER brought it up.

Personally I wanted, Clark or Dean, but the DNC decided otherwise, so I voted for Kerry.

I compromised in 2004, but will NOT compromise in 2008. I will NOT vote for anyone who gave * the authority to go into Iraq, and there were enough in Congress who voted against it.

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

70. I'm not a huge Kerry fan either.

It's hard to dispute that Dean took a beating. Everyone hammered him on his Bush bashing. Whether or not he'd have done as good as Kerry, who really knows? It would've been an entirely different race, and despite what anyone here says, no one really knew for certain that there was not going to be WMD found in Iraq. People might've felt strongly that there wasn't - I was one of them - but NO ONE knew completely for certain in this country.

As for the IWR... most of our Congressmen had absolutely no choice. I had the good fortune of working for someone in a safe district that voted against the war, but he was certainly in the minority on that. It was an extremely difficult time to be a Democrat. It's easy to forget that right now, but even here on DU, it wasn't completely safe to speak your mind back then. Do what you must, but I hope you realize this wasn't something anyone that stood any chance of losing had a choice on. Wellstone was one exception - and there was no good guarantee he was going to win. I, for one, thought he would and find it "suspicious" that his plane crashed. It would've been horribly embarassing to have an outspoken anti-war candidate in a vulnerable state win re-election. And don't think for a moment that hadn't run through the minds of other Democratic congressmen and senators. Point is - praise Wellstone for his exceptional courage, but understand that it WAS exceptional for a very good reason.

[KittyWampus]

51. Baloney, Kerry's Campaign Won. He Made A FEW Mistakes. You Must

be a bitter Dean, Dennis or somebody supporter.

I am sick of people perpetuating that lie.

[TankLV]

43. Did you forget the repukes under Clinton?

Some people have very short memories.

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

47. Okay, what about them?

Please, tell me four things they accomplished in those 2 years when they were in the complete minority.

[TankLV]

55. Well, one "small" thing they accomplished, they set the stage for

for the complete takeover of Congress.

which leadto

successfully impeached Clinton.

Not to mention all of the judges and nominations they held up or outright refused to vote on for his nominees.

Forced him to back away from Health Care.

Forced him to back away from Gays in the military, his first initiative, and then to "Don't Ask Don't Tell"

Got him to give up his choice for Surgeon General not once but twice (nominees and a sitting one) - remember Jocylin Elders?

That's just off the top of my head. I'm sure others could come up with tons more with only a little research.

You must not remember all the stalled legislation and the vetos he had to use either.

They were a vocal and beligerent minority - and because of it, they successfully defeated democrats all over the place and became the majoarity - that is the most important part.

We only get apologists and vichy dems - certainly not an "opposition" party - noone in his right mind could even begin to think of terming any of our dems except the Black Caucus an "opposition"!

And that's just Clinton.

Don't forget Carter, either.

And the repuke's obstruction of any Civil Rights legislation is legendary.

[OzarkDem]

60. Dems in DC

live in an alternate reality.

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

62. It took them FORTY YEARS to take over Congress.

It did not happen just in the 2 years under Clinton.

We've only been in the minority for 11 years now. Talk about losing perspective.

[OzarkDem]

59. Stop making excuses

Start winning or get out of DC.

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

64. Real substantive.

:sarcasm: Once you leave your armchair, politics is a much more complex game than you think.

[Al-CIAda]

21. DIEBOLD & ES&S: "Math Doesn't Add Up for a Democrat-Run Senate"

"Math Doesn't Add Up for a Democrat-Run Senate"

[nolabels]

35. I have no faith in this government or the voting machines

The whole thing is controled by corporate strings, and no good will come as long that is so


You're just a stupid girl
You really got a lot to learn
Start living again
Forget about remembering
You're such a stupid girl.


You're such a beautiful fish
Floppin' on the summer sand
Lookin' for the wave you missed
When another one is close at hand
You're such a stupid girl.




You're such a stupid girl.

I saw you in Mercedes Benz
Practicing self-defense
You got it pretty good I guess
I couldn't see your eyes
You're really stupid, girl.

You're such a stupid girl
http://www.lyricsdepot.com/neil-young/stupid-girl.html

[depakid]

22. Brownstein is the West Coast's Howard Feinman

I don't pay any attention to his biased "analysis." Ever.

Except to post something like this everytime I see his stuff mentioned on DU. LOL!

[Lexingtonian]

40. Amen to that.

I agree. He always seems so clever, and yet always six months behind on developments in the electorate. Typical Beltway-centric myopia due to living off the assessments his Fairfax county consultant buddies give him, gussied up but still behind the curve.

He could be so much better, that's always the shame to his articles.

[UCLA Dem]

23. We have to get busy and break up this trend.

[TankLV]

42. Times change. People change. If this were true logic, then the repukes

wouldn't ever have managed to break the former democratic stranglehold they held previous to being overtaken by the repukes.

Means nothing.

Everything is fluid.

It all depends now on GETTING ALL THE VOTES COUNTED.

We should have had it all again the LAST few times, except for the REPUKE VOTING MACHINES.

[DuaneBidoux]

73. Don't journalists know there is no adverb or adjective "Democrat"

Math Doesn't Add Up for a DemocratLY-Run Senate

[KT2000]

76. Thank you

we cannot allow that - Gingrich is the one who tried to get rid of the word Democratic and replace it with Democrat.
To me it is always a RW tip-off.

[Theduckno2]

74. Does anyone expect a greater degree of apathy from the Republicans?

I think (mostly hope) that apathy is starting to set in with the Republicans. The split on judicial nominees, public dislike of SS privatization and an unpopular war may help to keep Republican voters home in 2006. If the Dems can field good candidates and keep their poll numbers up some things may just go their way. Don't get me wrong though, it is an uphill battle, hopefully just not as steep as some the pessimists would have you believe. I just don't easily accept the Red-Blue divide as being irreversibly set in stone. :hi:

edit: spelling