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RedEarth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-23-05 04:33 PM
Original message
China bird flu could 'cause mayhem'
The Chinese government says there is no need to be alarmed. So far, the only deaths reported from the latest bird flu outbreak are 178 wild geese found on the shores of Lake Qinghai earlier this month.


There are no reported cases of the disease among China's domestic poultry, let alone any cases of human infection. But if there is no reason to be alarmed, why has China rushed to shut down all its national parks, sealed off Lake Qinghai, and ordered the vaccination of millions of poultry across vast areas of western China?

The reason is the potential this virus has to cause mayhem. The virus in question is known by the code name H5N1, and it is extremely deadly, not just to birds, but to humans.

......

Every spring, millions of migratory birds leave South-East Asia and head north across China to their summer nesting grounds. The fear now is that many more than the 178 geese which died may be carrying H5N1.

Fifty-four human deaths don't sound many. In fact, bird flu has so far proved very poor at spreading to humans. Almost all of those who died had been in close daily contact with infected chickens and ducks. But that may change. Viruses constantly mutate. Already H5N1 has mutated into a form that can pass from bird to human. Next it may mutate again into a form that can pass from human to human.



http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/4573393.stm
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pandemic_1918 Donating Member (679 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-23-05 04:50 PM
Response to Original message
1. H5N1 India to China Express
H5N1 is probably already transmitting in India, where the geese migrate from

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/05220502/H5N1_India_Bar_Headed_Geese.html

Pick two countries ideal for starting a pandemic.
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valis Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-23-05 04:52 PM
Response to Reply #1
2. Right... And I'm not sure the US govt would mind...
As long as it stayed there...
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pandemic_1918 Donating Member (679 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-23-05 05:05 PM
Response to Reply #2
3. One Flight Away
Containing flu is next to impossible. It has a short incubation period, is easily transmitted, and can fly around the world in hours. Actually, even the geese can cover 1000 miles in a day.

This is a major problem that won't go away regardless of the number of press releases and media reports (H5N1 knows how to evolve, not read press releases).
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pandemic_1918 Donating Member (679 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-23-05 06:06 PM
Response to Reply #3
4. 519 Dead Birds in Qinghai
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