Experts: Iraq verges on civil war

[leftchick]

http://www.newsday.com/news/nationworld/world/ny-woiraq0512,0,4630319.story?coll=ny-top-headlines

WASHINGTON -- An unchastened insurgency sowed devastation across Iraq Wednesday as experts here said the country is either on the verge of civil war or already in the middle of it.

<snip>

With security experts reporting that no major road in the country was safe to travel, some Iraq specialists speculated that the Sunni insurgency was effectively encircling the capital and trying to cut it off from the north, south and west, where there are entrenched Sunni communities. East of Baghdad is a mostly unpopulated desert bordering on Iran.

"It's just political rhetoric to say we are not in a civil war. We've been in a civil war for a long time," said Pat Lang, the former top Middle East intelligence official at the Pentagon.

Other experts said Iraq is on the verge of a full-scale civil war with civilians on both sides being slaughtered. Incidents in the past two weeks south of Baghdad, with apparently retaliatory killings of Sunni and Shia civilians, point in that direction, they say.

[Teaser]

1. Been saying this for a while.

People have utterly failed to understand the significance of our recent (And apparently now defunct) drop in US casualties. It meant the insurgent's strategy of keeping us penned into our bases was working...while they set about strengthening their control of the countryside.

Someday, I'm going to write a novel about this lunacy. But right now it's just too raw and too bloody to approach. Maybe with time, distance, and the hard edge of cynicism it will be easier.

[Mizmoon]

12. I wrote a novel about this war during the buildup

in the end we hold fake elections, declare victory, and get the hell out, leaving the region in a nightmare civil war.

Meanwhile, back home, schoolchildren have to buy their own books because the districts can't afford them, millions live in giant "hoovervilles" that are patrolled by police drones, and the whole country is armed to the teeth due to "liberal" interpretation of the 2nd Amendment making it a civil war powder keg.

[whistle]

2. John Negroponte, Donald Rumsfeld, Dick Cheney finally....

...breathing a sigh of relief, now they'll have a real enemy they can identify, the other side!

[bushisanidiot]

3. This is all part of the PNAC plan. Let them kill off eachother

and the U.S. continues to steal their oil during the chaos.

[ixion]

20. yeah, except Iraqi patriots keep blowing up the pipelines

so that devious little plan isn't really working out, as with EVERY SCHEME, these idiots come up with. :eyes:

[Frederik]

53. But it keeps the profit margins up

Oil companies are drooling over the prospect of a civil war that'll keep the spigots shut for years.

[tanyev]

4. BREAKING--"Experts" finally admitting

what DU has known all along.

[AFSCME girl]

6. Exactly!

But don't listen to us, we're just a bunch of stupid "libruls"....:sarcasm: :banghead:

[Inland]

18. "Breaking--Expert pulls head out of ass, able to see clearly" nt

[Inland]

5. But NOBODY could EVER have predicted that blah blah blah blah blah

Blah blah, blah Clinton's fault blah blah war on terra blah blah believed the intel blah blah coalition blah blah blah.

[meganmonkey]

10. Wow! Your grasp on the situation makes it all so clear!

:P

Just messin'

[smoogatz]

17. You forgot

spreading democracy blah blah blah support the troops blah blah

[Straight Shooter]

30. Also forgot

fighting them there blah blah blah so we don't fight them here blah blah blah freedom is on the march.

Blah.

[ClintonTyree]

51. There's more....

brutal dictator blah blah blah, gassed his own people blah blah blah, smoking gun is a mushroom cloud blah blah blah...I guess we could go on forever. Everything that's come out of his mouth since the Supreme Court appointed him has been either bullshit or an outright lie.

[The Animator]

69. You forgot POLAND!!! blah

blah blah blah blah misunderestimating blah blah blah blah blah nukular blah blah subliminable blah blah blah blah blah blah blah.

Terrorists never stop thinking about new ways to hurt our country, and neither do we! blah blah blah.

[Zorra]

33. You forgot to mention this, also -

Today, no nation can possibly claim that Iraq has disarmed. And it will not disarm so long as Saddam Hussein holds power. - George W. Bush, 3/17/03

"C reported on his recent talks in Washington. There was a perceptible shift in attitude. Military action was now seen as inevitable. Bush wanted to remove Saddam, through military action, justified by the conjunction of terrorism and WMD. But the intelligence and facts were being fixed around the policy. The NSC had no patience with the UN route, and no enthusiasm for publishing material on the Iraqi regime's record. There was little discussion in Washington of the aftermath after military action." 23 July 2002, M. Rykoff, British PM meeting.

Clearly, it is Clinton's fault, the intel was bad....

JUST KIDDING! BUSH LIED HIS ASS OFF!
:spray:
:grr:

[TahitiNut]

7. Resisting a foreign invader isn't a "Civil War"

Attacking the Quislings isn't about "civil war." When the Free French waged war against the Vichy government of Petain, it wasn't called a "civil war."

[endarkenment]

15. but it is a bit more complicated than that.

The shiite faction has skillfully used our invasion and occupation force as its proxy in what is a real civil war with real factions while the kurds have used their control of iraqi-kurdistan to successfully demand de fact autonomy for their region. The shiites are of course in no particular hurry to see us leave, as that would even up their military force with respect to the sunni insurgents. We will be there for a very long time indeed, but then again that was the plan all along.

[TahitiNut]

19. Foreign invaders and colonialists have ALWAYS exploited divisions.

The Middle East was never delineated into politically (demographically) homogeneous 'nations,' the result of a politically evolutionary process over time as elsewhere. The very boundaries and regimes that exist in the Middle East were largely defined with the primary purpose of entrenching colonialism. Whether we're looking at the Ottoman Empire or the British Empire, the establishment of Royal Families and national boundaries served the interests of foreign rule. Iraq is a good example, with the ethnic Kurds from an eradicated Kurdistan, a Shiite plurality, and a Sunni ruling elite.

[nolabels]

46. Coupled with the time tested greed of a few who wield limited powers......

who would like more, and wah-la, instant conflicts. Never mis-underestimate the ability of one set of crooks to be picking out another set of pliable crooks for any nefarious agenda.

The US stands for what? :shrug:

Pentagon: No Military Progress in Iraq in Past Year

Talabani Fears Baath Military

Juan Cole
Informed Comment
April 27, 2005

Jalal Talabani told al-Hayat that he feared that the concerns among the Shiite religious parties about Sunni Arab cabinet ministers being completely free of any Baath association would cause the baby to be thrown out with the bath water. It is this issue of vetting the Sunni Arab ministers that appears to have delayed the finalization of the cabinet, along with continued Sunni Arab demands for some important ministries. Talabani warned against any purge of ex-Baathists, pointing out that there there are a million and a half Baathists in Iraq. He said it was important to distinguish between ordinary party members and the Baath military. The latter had to be kept away from the levers of power, he said, lest it make another coup similar to the one in 1968.

Talabani also warned that for foreign troops to be withdrawn at this point risked provoking civil war. He insisted that Iraq is not occupied.

Al-Hayat also says that the Sadr Movement has charged Iyad Allawi with implementing "an American game" in attempting to obstruct the formation of a government. Ahmad al-Qurayshi, head of the higher council for the Sadrists, told al-Hayat that "the goal of Allawi is to rob the Shiite alliance in order to make them withdraw the names of cabinet ministers who are not liked in Washington."

A high-ranking member of the Shiite Dawa Party told the newspaper that he intended to resort to "demonstrations and a popular uprising to force the formation of a government if the Americans continued to intervene behind the scenes to derail the process."
(snip)
http://www.occupationwatch.org/analysis/archives/2005/04/pentagon_no_mil.html

[Frederik]

54. But it's more complicated than that, too!

My impression is absolutely that the vast majority of Shiites want the US out ASAP. Remember the 300,000 that marched in Baghdad and elsewhere, Shiites for the most part, who demanded a clear timetable for withdrawal? The people who have manoeuvred themselves into positions of power want the US to stay for now, as they would be in grave danger if the troops left (hell, they are in grave danger just driving outside of the Green Zone), but the ordinary Ahmed in the street is probably of a different opinion.

[calimary]

73. Welcome to DU! Like your name.

Seems like it sums up the American condition just now.

[bemildred]

8. "unchastened insurgency"

Who writes this drool?

[Teaser]

16. All newspaper reporters

want to be novelists.

It's why they lie so goddamn much...for practice.

[ixion]

22. Most novelists want to tell the truth, if they're true to their craft

just like a journalist should be.

Please don't insult credible journalists and novelists by comparing them to the shills who write this tripe.

[Teaser]

26. I'd do it again

One does not "give good quote" by resorting to half measures or worrying about exceptions to sweeping generalizations.

[grytpype]

9. What the Bushists are down to now..

... is hoping the insurgents wear themselves out with all this activity.

Seriously, that is the plan now.

[Demeter]

11. Today Iraq, Tomorrow---

US?

[renaissanceguy]

60. I keep thinking that we are already

in a cold civil war...who knows if it will turn hot... Does anyone feel it in the air?


http://www.cafepress.com/liberalissues.21272015

[Demeter]

66. Our Second Civil War--Between the Red and the Blue

was declared a "culture" war by General "Newt" Gingrich back in the 80's.

What the Reds actually declared war on was the American way. Their "culture", a theocracy in training, is precisely the worst nightmare of our founders, and so far from the blueprints of this nation as to constitute an invasion by hostile aliens.

The country that prided itself on "subverting" dictatorships with the example of democracy is in turn subverted by the corporatists and the small-minded religious bigots. If there is a god, he's laughing his head off.

[Stinky The Clown]

13. My only 'problem' with all this is terminology

To call the combatants by the term 'insurgents' implies they're a monolithic force with a single purpose. Patriots all. That simply isn't true.

We have Sunni fighters - mostly the Saddam bunch. This crew could also include some Syrians.

We have Shi'ite fighters - both native (Iraq) grown and very likely foreign (Iran, probably) grown

In the north, we have Kurdish fighters, mostly just trying to keep their perimeter intact and keep the shitstorm out.

Then, just yesterday, we get reports of US troops facing a "uniformed" enemy in the area near the Syrian border. What's not yet clear ... who's uniforms? Syrian?

Then there's the various and sundry anti-US terror groups (al qaeda and the like) who are opportunistically now engaged in things for their own various purposes.

Overlay all of this with tribal warlords who are loyal only to themselves. These long held tribal and familial alliances are older than the country and want to keep their own piece sand at all costs ... against all comers.

Overlay *that* with ever shifting alliances of convenience between any of the factions .... and you never who the hell you're with .... or against.

So ... to call them all 'insurgents' .... it just doesn't do it for me. It is, without a doubt, a civil war. But more likely it is a truly chaotically roiling brew of civil wars .... each with its own cast of characters.

[woosh]

24. "Insurgent" actually implies that we have already won the war

and these are the "hold outs". Fighting a guerilla war was the Bathist plan all along. Seems to me nothing has been won.

[Stinky The Clown]

28. Seems to me you're absolutely right

Also seems to me the word 'insurgent' was carefully poll tested before being placed in wide employ by the yammering class.

[Charles19]

34. I would look at it like this

The objective to get Saddam was attained. However in hindsight it looks like it really didn't need to be achieved since he was no threat to the U.S. and didn't even control much of his own country. Was basically only good at not getting himself assasinated, etc.

So we clearly had more objectives in mind like:

- rebuild the country
- create an environment frendlier to the U.S. and PNAC policy
- get elections going
- have a country at peace with its neighbors
- increase Israels power/safety in the region (they are safer because Iraq is weaker logic)
- Get a WHOLE LOT OF OIL pumping out of Iraq

So we got Saddam... but... when you look at the rest of this administrations clear objectives (whether we agree with them or not), they are not doing very good on any front and it looks to me like a number of them or all of them will not be attainable.

What it comes down to now is how best to protect innocent civilians lives for all involved, coalition and Iraqi. This is the question that should be answered and it seems right now no one is working on it.

[bunkerbuster1]

47. Perhaps we could agree to call it "The War Between the States"

since our administration is so phobic about acknowledging that it's a civil war.

(Or maybe the War of Northern Aggression? naw, doesn't work...)

[yellowcanine]

14. You thought it was 2005? No, it's 1965 and a newly elected president is

in denial about the real nature of the insurgency. We are in a civil war in Iraq and "our side" is not winning. "Our side" being the side of a stable democracy.

"The Sunni insurgents could win the battle if they persevere long enough to sour U.S. voters," Feldman said.

He said, "There is no evidence whatsoever that they cannot win."

[DS1]

21. I'm sure the entire community over at FreeRepublic has already

organized themselves into jump sticks and are waiting on a tarmac in Germany with parachute kits between their legs :eyes:

RANGERS OUT! GUNG HO! GET THE FUCK OVER THERE YOU BUSH SUPPORTING MORON FUCKS!

/end rant

[bushisanidiot]

25. The only way those chickenshit freeptards would "fight" is if they could

launch missiles from hundreds of miles away or fly over and drop bombs from a safe distance.

they don't do "boots on the ground" or volunteer for combat duty like John Kerry did in Vietnam.

[woosh]

23. Seymour Hersh yesterday on Democracy Now

Asked the question "what else is it?" Full hour with Hersh (if you have the time).

http://play.rbn.com/?url=demnow/demnow/demand/2005/may/video/dnB20050511a.rm&proto=rtsp

It's only the media manipulation here in the US that makes us even doubt that it's anything else.

[Frederik]

55. Excellent interview

Hersh is one of a kind in that he's so well connected and still such a good guy.

He makes excellent points about the media manipulation and the lack of credible information. Why on earth should we believe that 100 "insurgents" have been killed just because the Army says so? Looks like they have another Falluja going right now and we hear nothing about it.

[grytpype]

27. Here's what I think is going to happen.

Here's what I think is going to happen:

1. The war will rage on for years. The Bushists are hoping the insurgents will wear themselves out through all this activity, that really is their only plan. But the insurgents have huge resources, they are not going to get tired first.

2. At some point, the US will have to pull out. Our armed forces are structured for a quick resolution, not a drawn-out occupation and war lasting years, Vietnam-style. And we are already well past the safe point.

3. The US will pull out by "turning over responsibility" to the vichy Iraq forces, in whatever state they are in, even if they are not ready. And they will not be ready by the time the US has to pull out.

4. After we pull out the vichy Iraq government will collapse, and Iraq will become a failed state, and a breeding ground for jihadis and terrorists.

5. There is not going to be a draft just to save the situation in Iraq. Bush would send every Iraqi to hell before he authorized a draft.

[Frederik]

56. No draft

They're hiring mercenaries from Uganda! Just for non-combat jobs for now but wait and see. A draft would be political suicide, so I'm sure they will look into hiring poor third-worlders to do their dirty work.

[goodhue]

29. already in the middle of it

[malmapus]

31. This has been coming for a long time

I think the fact that we're there now is the only reason the different factions aren't killing each other. Before that it was the fact that Saddam was a strong arm dictator that kept the "peace".

[Lochloosa]

32. I had a bet with some Repug "friends" of mine at the

beginning of this "war" that it would lead to a civil war by April of 2005. Time to collect on the bet....

[Charles19]

35. This leads into an interesting and dangerous dynamic in regards to Iran

Once the civil war escalates big enough, the Iranians may want to go in on the side of the Shiites to help protect them. If this happens Saudi Arabi, Jordan and possibly Egypt will go in on the side of the Sunni Muslims to support them.

Turkey is itching at putting down the new found Kurd independance in the North and already has sizeable units stationed on the border to go give them a reality check. They may want to take the opportunity to do this but would not likely do that if the U.S. is there. If the heat gets too hot and they feel the U.S. won't stop them you might have them in the thick of things in the North as well.

That many country's start throwing there weight around and others will likely be jumping in as well. Once the bullets start flying it is hard to get them to stop.

[Cessna Invesco Palin]

42. Two years ago...

...I was called a crazy person on DU for suggesting just that. I don't think many of us suspected it'd get *this* bad. Jesus.

[killbotfactory]

44. We'll have the perfect excuse to invade Iran,.then...

Bush: "Iran has invaded the newly freed Iraq for no reason other than to impose thier tyranny! We must act! We must invade!"

Congress: *standing applause*

[Jo March]

36. Well, I guess now they hate each other for their freedoms

instead of just hating us for our freedoms?

I feel so helpless.

[Candide]

37. Seems like it doesn't take much to be an expert these days

[Demeter]

67. Just Two Eyes and Half a Brain

and a few years of living in the real world will do it.

[killbotfactory]

38. Never saw that one coming...

Oh wait, EVERYONE WHO HAD A CURSORY UNDERSTANDING OF THE HISTORY OF IRAQ DID. Nevermind.

[rocktivity]

39. Candidate for this month's "You Call This NEWS?" award

If we DU-ers were smart enough to predict civil war before the invasion even started, why couldn't the so-called experts?

:shrug:
rocknation

[deadparrot]

40. You don't say...nt

[alfredo]

41. there's blood on bush's hands. Sure things weren't great for the

Iraqi's under Hussein, but at least they could go to the market without fear of a car bomb, or tend their fig trees without fear of stepping on a mine.


http://home.infionline.net/~arm3/cost.html

[Xenotime]

43. Iraq now.

Iraq as a whole was much better under Saddam than they are now. The US has brought terror to their front door.

[alfredo]

45. In a nation of laws, bush would be in prison.

not parading around pretending he is the avenging angel of the lord.

[nolabels]

49. That Bush dude is just a plain idiot, and the lord of only fools

We see the cracks now, but just wait till they open up to that big effing mess that it's going to be. Our complicit congress is just as contemptible. We have one government, and it's a government of spineless inept idiots.

In four or five years this time will look like the good ole days

They also can take 100-0 vote to giving way for national ID's and the later planed police state and shove it up their rectum.

President Idiot and The Congress of Cowards, what a difference a couple hundred years makes

[alfredo]

62. The Repugs played a dirty trick with the Real ID. They attached it to

money for our troops. Nobody wanted to give KKKarl Rove ammunition to use against them. He will lie about it anyway.

The Real ID will be in the courts I can guarantee that.

We need to be relentless in our pursuit in bringing bush to justice. Maybe we will get him before a judge that will show him the same compassion he showed the inmates in the Texas prisons.

[LiberallyInclined]

52. it would be interesting to see-

the annual death rate for iraqi civilians under sadaam versus under u.s. occupation. does anyone know if such figures have been compiled?

[Frederik]

58. Well, the Lancet study

concluded that the risk of dying a violent death had increased by a factor of 58! 58 times bigger chance of dying a violent death in their newfound state of liberty than under evil Saddam!

[Arkansas Granny]

61. I don't know if this is the info you're looking for,

but there a lot of statistics at this site:

http://www.brookings.edu/dybdocroot/fp/saban/iraq/index.pdf

Has a lot of stats and is updated frequently.

[alfredo]

72. At least they could go out to the market

without risking their lives.

[sendero]

48. For a second time today, all I can say is...

... DUH.

And in other news, there is a high likelihood of the sun coming up tomorrow morning. Although there isn't a consensus, we think that it's very likely. In fact, as best we can determine, every time morning has broken in the past, the sun has come up.

Sendero wishes he could get paid for writing such drivel.

[lumpy]

50. Heh ! No shit !

n/t

[lonestarnot]

57. Turkey's troops still waiting at the borders?

[yorkiemommie1]

59. yee-HAWWW!!!!!!!!!

smirky has to go now, poppy putting training wheels back on my bike!

[Cool Hand Luke]

63. civil war?

Now I'm throughly confused. Bush and company have been taking the time to emphasize that everyday and in every way things are getting better in Iraq. Just last night the virgin Condi Rice with well documented fantasies of being the married to the President said that things were hunky dory. And she is both a doctor and a Christian. So am I supposed to believe some secular hedonist that probably has had sex with multiple partners over the virgin Condi?

This beliveabilty factor is becoming raised to a level I am not able to relate to.

sarcasm. lol

[Zhade]

64. If true, maybe the occupation apologists here will wake the fuck up.

Our prescence is making matter worse. Time to bring the troops home from a place they never should have been in the first place.

It's obvious that the occupation isn't staving off the civil war so many occupation apologists clatter on about. That argument is close to dead now, guys. Give it up and admit you were wrong, so we can get the troops home.

[harpo]

65. Did they mean U.S. verges on civil war?

:patriot:

[Zorra]

68. kick

[The_Casual_Observer]

70. "Let freedom Reign"

"Freedom is on the March!"

"Saddam was a madman, the world is safer without Saddam"

[wiggs]

71. Civil war is fine, even welcomed, by this administration.

The British set it up that way...constant strife allowed the British to continue getting what it wanted out of the country. Now the US has done nothing over the last 2 years to keep arms out of the hands of the insurgents, build good will, reconstruct damage, get a clear leader in power...in fact at times it seems we have done the opposite of what you would expect a occupying power to do to quell insurgency and political discord.

The reason is that civil strife keeps us there.. Keeps one group from gaining power to kick us out...keeps the nation disabled, divided, and disfunctional...allows us to do any damn thing over there we want. It also keeps the war on terror alive...which helps the administration here at home keep us all afraid.

This is what we want. Things will not get better in Iraq. Things will get worse everywhere, in fact.

After Zarqawi, there will be someone else. After that it might be another country.