ChristianSciMon: Search For Patterns In Insurgency (No Pattern!)

[Hissyspit]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/csm/20050511/ts_csm/apattern

Search for patterns in insurgency
By Peter Grier, Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor
Wed May 11, 4:00 AM ET

When it comes to insurgent attacks in Iraq, the only pattern is that there may be no pattern.

The recent upsurge in Iraqi violence, after a relative lull following national elections, has left US officials and outside experts alike groping for answers about the nature of the enemy. It's possible that the attacks are meant to take advantage of the new Iraqi government's struggles to organize itself, for instance. But it is at least as likely that the increase has been powered by reasons known only to the insurgents themselves, such as flagging morale or an increase in the availability of fighters or weapons.

Even to speak of "an insurgency" is something of a misnomer, as there are probably a number of insurgencies, split between foreign jihadis, die-hard Saddam Hussein followers, and anti-American opportunists. One expert compares them to a flock of birds or a school of fish who suddenly group, travel in formation, and then disperse - all without any central command.

"And with birds and fish, who knows where they are going to go?" says Itamara Lochard, a specialist in insurgencies at Tufts University's Fletcher School in Medford, Mass.

MORE AT LINK

[bridgit]

1. chaos theory...

they're just not looking @ what they need to see
http://www.imho.com/grae/chaos/chaos.html

[daleo]

10. Guerrilla war is kind of fractal in nature.

I mean self similar on any scale, from a man planting a bomb to a national movement. That is what makes it hard to fight.

[unhappycamper]

2. Here's a pattern:

Patriots fight invaders.

You must rid the country of one or the other.

[teryang]

3. Empire by conquest rejected by indigenous nationalists

The strongest pattern of the modern history. The rejection of colonialism is one of the principle historic patterns of the twentieth century.

How anyone in their right mind could claim not to recognize it? You have to be a toady of a belligerent fascist regime in order not to see the pattern.

[Frederik]

5. Bingo

The "experts" apparently can't see the wood for all the trees (well they probably can, but that's not what they're paid for).

[LynnTheDem]

4. There WAS NO LULL.

The "election" day had the highest number of attacks of any one day since we invaded Iraq; 300 attacks.

There was no lull.

[trotsky]

6. That sent up a little warning flag to me, too.

A "lull"? As far as I had heard, attacks have continued and even escalated before, through, and after election day.

Now even the CSMonitor is covering up for the * admin's incompetence.

[Barrett808]

8. Yes, one of the bigger myths bouncing around the corporate media n/t

[Hissyspit]

9. Absolutely, Lynn.

[LynnTheDem]

11. Just more of the same; trying to force a reality that does not exist. And

then everyone's shocked -SHOCKED I tell you!- when the false reality is exposed as false.

bushCartel and the "MSM" went on and on and on about how PEACEFUL "election" day was...IT WASN'T. There were THE HIGHEST NUMBER OF ATTACKS recorded on that one day than of any day since bush invaded that once-sovereign nation who hadn't been doing anything to anyone.

Then when the attacks that had ALWAYS been happening continue to happen and finally soak through the bushCartel Reality-Filter, Americans are just SHOCKED at the "SUDDEN SURGE" in violance.

Like they were SHOCKED at there being no "WMD" in Iraq since 1991!

Like they were SHOCKED that most the world never thought there was any "WMD" of any note in Iraq!

Like they were SHOCKED to learn the vast majority of the world did NOT support bush's illegal war of aggression!

Like they were SHOCKED to learn Iraq had nothing to do with al Qaeda or the 911 attacks!

Like they were SHOCKED that the Iraqis didn't toss choccie and florals!

Like they were SHOCKED over the "Jessica Lynch, Rambette" propaganda story, and the "Saddam Statue-Toppling" propaganda story, and the "Pat Tillman, Charge of the Right Brigade" propaganda story!

Like they were SHOCKED over "curveball" and Ahmed "thanks, suckers!" Chalabi being nothing but lying, drunk, criminal criminals!

Like they will someday in the near future be SHOCKED that the Iraqi "leaders" Talabani and Allawi are arguably worse than Saddam Hussein!

Like they will someday in the near future be SHOCKED that The Forgotten War, Afghanistan, is still going on 5 years later, is WORSE than ever, that Afghanis are WORSE OFF now than before bush invaded, that they HATE us, and that the vast majority of the world DID NOT support the invasion of Afghanistan, either.

How unfortunate (especially for all the dead and the destroyed) that so many Americans are incapable of just LISTENING to the real reality in the first place.

[bemildred]

7. What horseshit.

Guerilla war is not new, it is the norm, and has been for some time.
Maybe the problem is that the "experts" are ignorant fools.

[LynnTheDem]

12. The REAL experts called it correctly from the start; the "experts" have

been, and continue to be, dead wrong.

"Experts" such as bush & his Cabal.

[Hissyspit]

13. kicking cuz I think it's a good conversation n/t