Britain faces big chill as ocean current slows ("The Day After Tomorrow")

[IChing]

The Sunday Times - Britain


May 08, 2005

Britain faces big chill as ocean current slows
Jonathan Leake, Science Editor

CLIMATE change researchers have detected the first signs of a slowdown in the Gulf Stream — the mighty ocean current that keeps Britain and Europe from freezing.
They have found that one of the “engines” driving the Gulf Stream — the sinking of supercooled water in the Greenland Sea — has weakened to less than a quarter of its former strength.

The weakening, apparently caused by global warming, could herald big changes in the current over the next few years or decades. Paradoxically, it could lead to Britain and northwestern and Europe undergoing a sharp drop in temperatures.

Such a change has long been predicted by scientists but the new research is among the first to show clear experimental evidence of the phenomenon.>>>>>snip

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2087-1602579,00.html

[BillZBubb]

1. When Britain freezes,

I wonder what the Poodle will say to Bush?

[mmonk]

27. Maybe then

the poodle will pee on the bush.

[GCP]

2. F#$% - I was really wanting to move back to the UK

This shit really scares me, on behalf of my family and friends over there.

[Viva_La_Revolution]

3. anyone have a link to

any sites that show the change? I think we all need to find out how this is going to effect the whole world, food supplies and migration, and how it will effect our weather locally too.

[joeunderdog]

56. here's an article...

http://www.tompaine.com/feature2.cfm/ID/9882

Check Discovery Channel's site. I saw a show on this whole phenomenon. It was an hour's worth of "chilling" details I'd never heard of before at the time.

[IChing]

4. There is no global warming

This was talked about as CT for a while but this is the first real data that this is happening




"Such a change could have a severe impact on Britain, which lies on the same latitude as Siberia and ought to be much colder. The Gulf Stream transports 27,000 times more heat to British shores than all the nation’s power supplies could provide, warming Britain by 5-8C.

Wadhams and his colleagues believe, however, that just such changes could be well under way. They predict that the slowing of the Gulf Stream is likely to be accompanied by other effects, such as the complete summer melting of the Arctic ice cap by as early as 2020 and almost certainly by 2080. This would spell disaster for Arctic wildlife such as the polar bear, which could face extinction."

[HereSince1628]

10. Direct oil shipping between Murmansk, Archangelsk and the James Bay!

Screw the white bears!! There could be a seriously large oil terminal in the middle of Canada...before the oil runs out completely we might bring DEMOCRACY to Canada!!! Dickey, Wolfie, quick work up a plan; we really need a new new Pearl Harbor! Oh, and Dickey, get ahold of your buddies at Halliburton, we need a plan for a pipeline.

[suziedemocrat]

52. Too Funny!! "bring DEMOCRACY to Canada!" That's Great!! n/t

[Spiffarino]

15. Great!

Think of it...that oil's gonna be so much easier to get to now! :D:thumbsup:

Gawd, how I hate what these bastards have done.

[AP]

5. This is how the last ice age started. Global warming stopped the gulf ...

...stream, which stopped the convection of warm and cool air, which froze the poles. It takes forever to get that convection going again.

[XemaSab]

26. Getting the ocean currents to shift back is

HARD WORK.

:sarcasm:

[lildreamer316]

37. BWAHAHA

..except this whole thing really isn't funny. Sigh.

[XemaSab]

46. Oh it's funny,

but Nature's laughing AT us, not WITH us.

[0007]

6. Are we riding a dying horse? All the signs say, yes!

Freeze to death, starve to death or die of thirst. Or kill one another for the last piece of energy or the last bite of food. Whats it going be?

Will euthanasia ever sound like a reasonable option?

[aquart]

13. I can see us all as illegal immigrants to Argentina.

Do you suppose they'll treat us well?

[Toots]

7. Mother Nature knows what is best for mankind....elimination

Maybe we will get our just rewards. The poor won't suffer much because they have not much to lose. The fat cats will sing the blues but by then it will be too late..

[Julius Civitatus]

8. But... but... the jury is still out on "global warming"

Didn't you hear Dear Leader say that? The Cato Institute told him so! They also told him that global warming may be a "good thing."

So move along. Nothing to see here. Wear sunblock. Drive your SUV.

:sarcasm:

[dArKeR]

9. All of continental US ocean waters are disgusting and have been that

way for decades. After living in Hawaii and seeing and playing in "NORMAL" ocean water then returning to the mainland to see people actually going into the oceans from Washington to California to Texas to Florida, yick! The water is not clear and doesn't even feel clean.

[donsu]

11. agree - it's been 15 to 20 yrs. since I last stepped toe in the Atlantic,

Florida Straits or Florida Bay

way too dirty

[shanti]

51. i can attest to that!

i remember going to the beach in southern cal during the 60's and 70's. the water was fine then, but i wouldn't put a toe in it now. i took a dip at newport beach about 1991 and when i came out, i felt like there was a film on me and my skin tingled (not from the cold). the caribbean is still ok now, but i would never swim on the west or east coast of the u.s. now. too damn nasty and polluted.

[IChing]

12. The effects to the US east coast

But there is speculation that it would effect this area also

Were this to happen, the North Atlantic region would cool by an average of 5º Celsius. This would mean that winters in Eastern North America would be twice as cold as the coldest winter on record in the past century, and Europe would be even colder. The summer growing season in these areas would be shortened, and summer crops might fail altogether. Previous conveyer shutdowns have been linked to widespread droughts throughout the world, and the disruption of the Asian monsoons.

http://www.the-tree.org.uk/EnchantedForest/ClimateChange/climatechange.htm

[dArKeR]

14. Oh, I miss typhoons so much! It's the first year in a decade I've gone

without a typhoon.

http://darkerxdarker.tripod.com/typhoon.htm

[Art_from_Ark]

53. Well, we had plenty of typhoons in Japan last year

A total of 10 made landfall, including 5 that hit land in Shikoku Island-- new records in both cases.

[Karenina]

16. Well it's Mothers'Day

and THIS mother is pissed cuz it's Mai and colder'nshit. AND cuz it's Mai the heat is OFF so I'm layered up with a crew, hooded-T and pulli!
:grr: At least the sun has poked thru again... :bounce:

[babywatson]

31. It's Warm Here

for a change. Yesterday was still cool and in the sixties. I feel sorry for my mother, she is up in NJ and they're still cold up there I hear.

[Karenina]

48. If you have a flat world map

in a book somewhere you can see how far north the U.K. and Germany are. Today's events are well within what I've observed as a normal weather pattern over the past decade. I'm just pissed cuz it's FICKEN KALT!

[Gregorian]

17. You mean we can't use that oil we are stealing?

So after killing all of those Iraqis, we won't be able to burn the oil. Wouldn't that be ironic.
You know, I hate being right.

[tenshi816]

18. I know I'm cold

It's the 8th of May. If I still lived in Georgia I'd be wearing shorts and a t-shirt. Instead I'm here in Yorkshire in the UK wearing fleece. The wind can just about knock me down when I go outside (admittedly we live up high, but still...) and all day long the weather has alternated between sunny spells and heavy rain which arrives quickly and hard with some thunder and lightning. We've also had three hailstorms today alone.

Weather gone crazy. My 16-pound French lop rabbit just looks out the window and appears content that she's a housebunny and safe from the unpredictable outdoors.

[fedsron2us]

25. The UK is situated on the boundary of four air masses

If you get Maritime Arctic air arriving from the pole in the late spring or early summer then you can quite often get cold weather. In 1975, which was one of the warmest driest summers recorded in the UK during the 20th century, snow fell in Buxton on the 2nd June stopping a county cricket match. The sort of weather you are experiencing in Yorkshire is quite common in May not the sign of a failure of the Gulf Stream. If that event was to occur then you would start to see a run of severe winters such as occurred in Britain in 1947 or 1963 when the sea around the coastline actually started to freeze.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/weatherwise/living/keydates/keydates_05.shtml
http://www.metoffice.com/education/secondary/students/winter.html#severe

[babywatson]

32. The UK has a great climate

because it's not how hot you get, it's how cold you DON'T get in the winter. It's why some parts of Ireland have palm trees when you can't grow them in Virginia. I hope that won't change because I can't live in a growing zone less than 7.

[bennywhale]

60. Thats the gulf stream

which also ensures palm trees in North West Scotland which is on the same latitude as Siberia

[Karenina]

28. Yes, that C-O-L-D wind came through here too.

Midnight blue skies, violent winds, downpours, hail
20 minutes later bright sunshine...

That IS our normal spring pattern, it's a bit COLDER than usual.

[Horse with no Name]

35. I'm in Northeast Texas

Normally sunny and warm.
Today it is 69, cool and raining.
3 days this week it has been the same.
Very unusual.
Saw the weather map on the news last night--it was in the 60's in Phoenix.
Again, very unusual.

[Eloriel]

42. Georgia hasn't been so warm this year

Here in West GA, we had the heat on to warm up the house when we woke up as late as yesterday! And that has not been unusual this year.

This morning was the first in a while that I can remember that we didn't use the heat at least once when we got up, and it reached 80 degrees out here (we're usually 10 -12 degrees cooler than Atlanta, just because all that concrete absorbs and holds lots of heat).

VERY unusual spring. For the most part, I've rather enjoyed it, except for worrying what it all means and whether it's just a normal cycle or part of the effects of global warming or what.

[barbaraann]

19. And the CIA is moving some of its operations from DC to Denver.

According to Thom Hartmann's book "The Last Hours of Ancient Sunlight" the eastern US and Europe will experience a new Ice Age due to global warming.

I noticed on the BBC coverage of the British election that some of the reporters were ill-prepared for the cold when they were reporting outside.

[IChing]

21. I just thought they wanted to be

closer to the blue states, but on topic the scientific report does have implications that the eastern seaboard would be affected if the northern polar ice pack were free in summer.

[drduffy]

20. growing season

well maybe the growing season in North Carolina would be usable. But then, what to do about all those damn foreigners from Nu Yawk and those other 'blue' states up in Yanqui country when they start trying to move in on us. Have to clean up my trusty arsenal.

[babywatson]

30. Our Zone 7 would turn into a Zone 4

forget what you used to be able to grow. I'm in VA and if this continues we'll be the new "Far North" weather-wise.

[Hosnon]

22. Yay...can't wait...

[ianrs]

23. election campaign here (UK)

was basically silent on the whole issue of the environment. Aside from occasional glib generalisations, not a bleedin' peep. Silence. Nada. Zilch. Niente. Ooh, turn the heating up...

[IChing]

24. thanks for british update

Is it a cold spring?

[ianrs]

59. not at all

quite a nice spring here in London. Funnily enough, at the moment global warming is acting as one would have thought, so the seasons seem to be slowly disappearing as it all gets, well, warmer. Will miss autumn hugely, whether it's been replaced by searing heat or by icy cold. Mind you, if dead, a la Day After Tomorrow, then I suppose will not miss autumn!

[babywatson]

33. Is It REALLY

cold over in the UK now in May???

[UKCynic]

34. No, it is very rarely really cold

It is what we call a bit nippy. We don't actually have a climate, we have weather. It is a different concept. I am just back from CA and it is much colder here, but not unusually so. If the gulf stream stops we will have central european type winters, suitable to our latitude, instead of the mild but erratic weather we have now. This will be very very bad as we are quite unprepared.

Tax all aviation fuel, heavily, everywhere, now.

[muriel_volestrangler]

36. Not REALLY cold

a bit below average. Back in March, the temperature went 2 degrees centigrade above the 5th-95th percentile range (and the range is well known - it dates back about 200 years). Overall, the year has been warmer than average so far.

[babywatson]

29. North America will turn into an Arctic Zone!!!!

....and Virginia is too cold for me now!!! At this rate, I'll have to move to the Caribbean!! Or will that be our new temperate climate?

Global warming is definitely happening, I remember thinking I was born in the summer (May 30). It was always warm or hot here by that time. Lately, I've noticed much cooler springs around here and not hot summers.

[anotherdrew]

38. don't panic

It's just a scam like peak oil. :eyes: Abiotic warming is all thats happening... Soon we'll be able to experiance Abiotic existence. :sarcasm:

[MrMonk]

39. There is a "sarcasm" smiley for use with posts like that.

Like this one: :sarcasm:.

[Strelnikov_]

40. "Abrupt Climate Change" Site

Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute

http://www.whoi.edu/institutes/occi/currenttopics/ct_abruptclimate.htm

And it is not just Europe. The eastern seaboard will be effected as well.

The ocean conveyor need not stop entirely when the NADW formation is curtailed. It can continue at shallower depths in the N. Atlantic and persist in the Southern Ocean where Antarctic Bottom Water formation continues or is even accelerated. Yet a disruption of the northern limb of the overturning circulation will affect the heat balance of the northern hemisphere and could affect both the oceanic and atmospheric climate. Model calculations indicate the potential for cooling of 3 to 5 degree Celsius in the ocean and atmosphere should a total disruption occur. This is a third to a half the temperature change experienced during major ice ages.

These changes are twice as large as those experienced in the worst winters of the past century in the eastern US, and are likely to persist for decades to centuries after a climate transition occurs. They are of a magnitude comparable to the Little Ice Age, which had profound effects on human settlements in Europe and North America during the 16th through 18th centuries. Their geographic extent is in doubt; it might be limited to regions bounding the N. Atlantic Ocean. High latitude temperature changes in the ocean are much less capable of affecting the global atmosphere than low latitude ones, such as those produced by El Niño.

[bennywhale]

41. Fucking Typical

Global Warming and we get colder.

I was hoping for tropical beaches instead of the wind and rain and fog we have to put up with.

What Happens?

A fucking ice age. Typical

[Eloriel]

43. Gee, so sorry to inconvenience you

I'm sure you don't deserve that at all.

[anotherdrew]

44. Just hold out for the Venus Scenario. plenty of warmth then

The Venus Scenario

http://physics.ucsd.edu/~tmurphy/phys12/lectures/17_global.PDF

[Art_from_Ark]

54. I have no idea why they call it the "Venus scenario"

Considering that Venus is 33% closer to the sun than the earth is, Venus' atmosphere is almost pure CO2 and is 100 times denser than the earth's, and Venus' day (at 243 earth days) is actually longer than its year (225 earth days), there's little chance of this planet ever imitating Venus.

[Strelnikov_]

45. Pentagon Report Addresses Abrupt Climate Change Dangers

Executive Summary:
http://www.ems.org/climate/exec_pentagon_climatechange.pdf

Complete Report:
http://www.ems.org/climate/pentagon_climatechange.pdf

An imminent scenario of catastrophic climate change is "plausible and would challenge United States national security in ways that should be considered immediately," according to a report commissioned by the Pentagon and obtained by media outlets in February 2004.

The report does not purport to be a forecast, but it identifies a plausible scenario in which global warming disrupts ocean currents that help moderate climate in North America and Europe, causing a five degree Fahrenheit drop in parts of North America by 2020 and a six degree drop in Northern Europe. It says global warming "should be elevated beyond a scientific debate to a U.S. national security concern."

. . .

Megadroughts afflict the U.S., especially in the southern states, along with winds that are 15% stronger on average than they are now, causing widespread dust storms and soil loss. The U.S. is better positioned to cope than most nations, however, thanks to its diverse growing climates, wealth, technology, and abundant resources. That has a downside, though: It magnifies the haves-vs.-have-nots gap and fosters bellicose finger-pointing at America.

Turning inward, the U.S. effectively seeks to build a fortress around itself to preserve resources. Borders are strengthened to hold back starving immigrants from Mexico, South America, and the Caribbean islands—waves of boat people pose especially grim problems. Tension between the U.S. and Mexico rises as the U.S. reneges on a 1944 treaty that guarantees water flow from the Colorado River into Mexico. America is forced to meet its rising energy demand with options that are costly both economically and politically, including nuclear power and onerous Middle Eastern contracts. Yet it survives without catastrophic losses.

Europe, hardest hit by its temperature drop, struggles to deal with immigrants from Scandinavia seeking warmer climes to the south. Southern Europe is beleaguered by refugees from hard-hit countries in Africa and elsewhere. But Western Europe's wealth helps buffer it from catastrophe.

[sweetheart]

47. Oh well.

Its been indeed a chilly day. high winds, sleet and temps in the 40's
(faranheait) on the scottish north coast.

Frankly, i'm expecting this conveyor to stop in our lifetime, and am
working with an architect to design a house 2x the insulation standards
for scotland... much better to live in an overinsulated cold space,
when that sort of weather starts when i'm older and less able to cut
peet and heating fuel.

At least it'll get rid of all the damn sheep, as an upside, those
bleeting bastards eat everything in sight, and never shut up.... as
much as the sweet little white lambs running in the spring heather
warms the heart.

I figure the shetlander's got it right.... house gables should be
4 foot thick of solid stone and walls, 3 foot thick solid stone...
for the wind and the long term weather of a nordic climate.

Frankly, its much warmer in scotland than anywhere in canada in the
winter, and most of the US as well, so its hardly a bad time... just
the summers are damn cool as well... the climate is more like coastal
northern california... always chilly, never cold.

I guess more poeple will use green houses and adapt, like human beings
always have...

Insulation and proper indoor spaces have served people about the
arctic circle for 1000 years... surely its a thing people can learn.

[muriel_volestrangler]

49. Let me get this straight, sweetheart,

you don't like sheep - and you moved to the north of Scotland?

[sweetheart]

50. CAP and the decline of sheep

Sheep never were economic of their own right, it has been rather the
subsidies of the EU that have made Sheep crofting economic... and now
that this has changed to "land under management" and the rural
regeneration schemes, the sheep population is falling.

That said, the buggers have eaten my garden multiple times, despite
efforts to keep the bastards out. And they're like bloody sacred cows
round 'ere.... geesh... a dog's worth 10 times the price of a sheep,
yet the law says its cool to shoot dogs that chase sheep.

For all the garden plants they've eaten, sheep are negative equity
next to goats, that thankfully have no franchise in the CAP. :-)

The sheep crofters i know, are cutting back on their flocks, and going
towards leaving land fallow, to regenerate the plants... those walking
lawnmowers have overgrazed many areas of the higlands and the fells of
yorkshire, something that is unnatural, and unbecoming... and worse,
when i get to the market, the lamb in the meat case is from *new zealand"
when i pass 100 lambs just to get TO the shop!

Frankly, i used to think of sheep in abstract terms, before living in
sutherland, like decorations on wallpaper... but damn! they're a noisy
lot, baaaaa baaaaa baaaaa... I had a lovely juniper bush and some
roses.. roses!!! and the sheep ate the whole things... thorns and all
... gosh! Its a good thing they're on the out, as for all the myth,
they're an environmental disaster.... biodiversity and all...

Worst of all, my dogs have been dining on sheep shit all day, rolling
in it and gobbling it up like its ice cream for peets sake! So i've
been presented with this earthy smell all over the house (as the dogs
think it's theirs). Sheep shit everywhere... film at 11. :-)

[muriel_volestrangler]

55. Ah - maybe you should have thought of Douglas Adams 'Sheppey' definition

before moving to Sutherland.

SHEPPEY (n.): Measure of distance (equal to approximately seven eighths of a mile), defined as the closest distance at which sheep remain picturesque.

From The Meaning of Liff.

[Zynx]

57. It's my understanding though that this cannot be stopped.

Sure it is going to happen as it has happened many times before, but is there anything we can really do? The way I see it is that the only thing we can really do is prepare for it when it comes.

[symbolman]

58. So then what would be the outlook for the Hawaiian Islands?

Anyone know how this would affect the Hawaiian Isles? I figured they'd be pretty much stable being in the middle of the pacific and near enough to the equator to nullify any wild swings..

if it got a little cooler that wouldn't be so bad, if it got a little warmer we can still take a dip in the cool ocean, unless it's doomed to boil in a decade or so?

I've always thought that we should create vast greenhouses all over the world containing all plant life and if the world weather changed then at least SOME plants could proliferate in an area they would usually not be found in..

just knock the glass out of the greenhouse in 25 years and see what takes root, that way we don't lose all the plants worldwide :)

crazy I know, but so is this world under Bizzarro Bush

[donsu]

61. that doesn't sound crazy - I've been worrying about ,non-messed

with by man kind, vegetable seeds. I haven't done it, but I keep this strong desire to have a supply of veg. seeds on hand.

the green houses would have to withstand rough weather.

[KamaAina]

62. That's all we need: to be the last safe refuge on Earth

Median home prices on Maui are already pushing $700,000. They also have a water shortage over there now (but you knew that, right?) Throw in a few "waves of boat people" and you've got overcrowding on a scale previously unimaginable. Instead of griping about becoming like Honolulu, Mauians would be griping about becoming like L.A. -- and mean it.

I suppose it's still better than freezing among the sheep doo in Scotland, though... :-)