APRIL 2005: Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 274,000

[ibid]

Year to date growth post January 2005 posting of March 2004 correction of birth/death employment generated by new firms is from 132,573,000 to 133,293,000 or 720,000 jobs of which 536,000 are from the guess as to employment generated by new firms since January.

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

Friday, May 6, 2005.


THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION: APRIL 2005

Employment rose in April, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.2 percent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S.Department of Labor reported today. Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 274,000 over the month. Job growth was widespread, with gains in construction, mining, and several service-providing industries.

Employment Situation (Math) Explanatory Note (well written this time) http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.tn.htm

http://www.bls.gov/web/cesbd.htm
2005 Net Birth/Death Adjustment (in thousands) Supersector Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Total -280 100 179 257

[Double T]

1. Many Of These Jobs Are Seasonal Increases Especially In The Construction..

...Trade. Keep Building Those Wal-Mart SuperCenters, Americans Need Jobs.

[tritsofme]

2. The number reported is seasonally adjusted.

So in fact the actual number of jobs created is markedly higher in this case, especially among construction jobs, but it has been smoothed out to account for seasonal fluctuations.

[ibid]

3. True :-) -but the new"pretend"business jobs equal the new jobs seasonally

adjusted.

curious......

The new business created jobs is a logical adjustment - but it is curious that the size is such a large percentage of the new jobs the last 3 months.

[Chrisduhfur]

4. Actually the job market does seem a bit better.

At least in my area. I can't compare it to the mid 90's though since I wasn't in the job market back then(I was in school) :D but it's much better than it was the past five years. At least for now and these are not walmart job etc.. They are actually IT jobs that I usually pay attention to. I hope it continues to look up though.

[losdiablosgato]

7. I work in IT in the Houston area

The job market is picking up, but slowly. It has been for a while now. Not big leeps just a slow stready gain. Hasving said that it is not what it was 5 years ago and with what looks like another 20000 H1B job visa coming it hurt.

[Robert Oak]

8. well, 20k H-1B will hurt

but at leasst that have US true Masters degrees...

unlike either forged or a MSc which is equal to a US BS, not a MS...

the thing I'm most concerned about is Godzilla Bill Gates lobbying
congress for "unlimited foreign guest worker VISAs".

This is truly something to be stopped dead in it's tracks.

GATS has had a series of negotiations for unlimited guest worker
VISAS (the rules of the WTO).

[losdiablosgato]

9. Outsourcing/ Offshoring is a winning issue for the Democrats

A strong pro labor candidate who runs against out sourcing and offshoring and is also neutral or even pro gun will do very well in Middle America.

[Robert Oak]

10. true, here's an encouraging fact

40 states have offshore outsourcing legislation coming up
to ban offshore outsourcing with the use of state contracts.

Since this is government spending, this is a very good sign.

I agree but "Hilary" is kind of playing both sides of the fence
and I feel "Republican lite".

She has introduced some very minor sorts of legislation but
more importantly is the co-chair of the Indian caucus (
and these are India Indians setting up offshore outsourcing
companies in the US to take jobs from Americans to India)

plus she helped TATA get established in NY, which has offshore
outsourced thousands of NY jobs.

Although those "rapid fundamentalists" don't seem to get it through
their brains that they vote for the very party that will ruin them
financially.

I'm hoping with a lot of education and getting the word out,
50% of the country isn't that crazy and I honestly don't believe
they are...but this country is very strange and has many times
ran with some insane idea...

like the Civil War...most Southerners were really hurt by slavery
they were not slave owners, yet they fought with a very small
minority and died for slave owners ideals.

[losdiablosgato]

12. These H1b's are treated as slaves in many companies

I have seen it up close and personel.

[Robert Oak]

13. Yuppers

I had also my work given to a H-1B who wasn't doing so hot
and upper management said "there was nothing they could do"
due to the "political clout" of the Indian manager who did it.

So, the H-1B stayed in the US, got some awards based on my efforts
and I got hurt in the reviews as being "above average" versus
stellar.

Charming.

So, it went both ways, but certainly terror was the tool of use
since the VISA is corporate controlled and could ship
that person back to their home country the minute they did anything
the corporation did not like.

[tritsofme]

5. If you are talking about the Net Birth/Death Model...

Than the number that is reported is not compatible with the seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll figure that is released.

That number is figured into a formula with the non-seasonally adjusted growth in payrolls, which was 1.179 million in April, suddenly making the Net Birth/Death Model's number look rather insignificant.

[ibid]

6. thanks for the information! :-) - - only 18% is pretend! :-)

So the birth death growth of 536000 Jan to now is related to the non-seasonally adjusted growth from 130495000 to 133374000, or 536 out of a total reported growth of 2879 - so it is only 18+ percent of the job growth.

That does make the idea of a better jobs market seem more real!

:-)

[tritsofme]

15. Actually the there has only been a net of 256k from the Model in 2005

Since 280k was subtracted in January.

Which is about 8% of all non-seasonally adjusted jobs created in 2005.

[ibid]

16. the 280 is a posting of the March 2004 error and reflects many months

Since the correction has been put through starting in 03, the net correction is approaching 2,000,000 for the 2 years - if memory serves - and it may not. Given beginning and end points are the same (namely March in the calculation I think I recall) "seasonal" should not be a big problem.

So Seasonal adjusted count growth over the two years due to the correction- if memory is correct - may well be 50% or more of total seasonally adjusted count growth!

All of which does not change the fact that this April had a great job growth number! :-)

[naderzenithnow]

17. Ha! Yeah, the market really bought it today too hunh? LOL!

What a joke. And burger flipping should have been counted as manufacturing I guess. Your lips are red.

[ibid]

18. Service jobs with no "relationship" angle are moving to India, leaving

burger flipping and wait service as our growth area in service jobs.

I hope that I hear correctly that some of this outsourcing is not working out.

But in any case, April was a great jobs number compared to prior months.

I want no one to suffer just because we have economics that are so stupid that a high school class would catch the problems now the national economics. More jobs are good. I hope the reporting is honest - and I have no reason to think it is not. I do question the unrecorded new jobs equal jobs lost and then some concept that the Bush believers have the DOL professionals following.

But the number was good for April! :-)

[The_Casual_Observer]

11. Why do I suspect that this is bogus?

Why should I be encouraged by these out-of-the-blue numbers? NOTHING that has been reported from bush in the last 4 years has turned out to be accurate or the least bit factual.

[Nickster]

14. "Brooklyn Bridge, Brooklyn Bridge for sale! Brooklyn Bridge......"

[Barkley]

19. The stock markets are still not responding

If the economy is doing so well, firms should be optimistic about future investments and consumers/ households with 270,000 more jobs should be elated.

But consumer confidence has been up and down
and the stock markets (DJIA, NASDAQ) have been mostly down.

The fed just raised the interest rates a quarter of a percent this week.

Higher interest rates will have a negative impact on business investment and household consumption.