Oil prices may fall in coming years, Chinese experts

[Barrett808]

BEIJING -(Oilnews)- As world oil prices hit new high time and again at the beginning of April, Chinese experts called for a rational analysis of the trend and predicted that there might be fall in the next few years.

Since Goldman Sachs, Wall Street famous investment bank, released the report predicting that oil prices may hike up to 105 US dollars per barrel in 2007, soaring oil price has aroused much tension not only overseas but also in China as the light crude hit 58 US dollars for the first time in the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex) last Monday.

The media have paid too much attention to the 105 US dollars price prediction made by Goldman Saches, said Shan Weiguo, director of petroleum economic and technological research center of China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), China's biggest oil producer.

"The prediction of 105 US dollars per barrel is the maximum estimate made by Goldman Saches when there is an extreme event such as oil supply breaking. While Goldman Saches' basic estimate was ignored by many media, which is 50 US dollars per barrel," said Shan.

In view of the demand and supply conditions of the international oil market and the exchange rate of the US dollars, Shan said that the oil prices could drop to 30 to 40 dollars per barrel in two or three years.

(more)

http://peakoil.com/modules.php?name=News&file=article&sid=3628

[wallwriter]

1. Wishful thinking!

They want to calm the markets down so they can buy more cheap oil. BUt it's just going to run out sooner...

[TheFarseer]

2. it is true that this bubble is unreasonable

but the underlying factors undeniably say oil should trend up. If we ever got our heads out of our asses and passed cafe standards or what have you to combat high oil prices, $40 a barrel very well could happen.

[megatherium]

3. Kenneth Deffeyes expects oil price volatility, as well as increases.

He says that is what has already happened to natural gas in this country: big price swings, and much more expensive than it once was. (This is in his new book: Beyond Oil, The View From Hubbert's Peak.)

[cliss]

4. Take your pick: Shan says

"oil prices could drop to 30 or $40 per barrel in 2 or 3 years.

Venezuelan Hugo Chavez says:

"The days of cheap oil are over".

Who do you believe? I can tell you got my vote.

[ECH1969]

5. The speculators are in the market to stay

Yes, I admit that oil is far over priced right now, but as long as speculators are in the market there will continue to be wild swings, mostly on the up side.

[xchrom]

6. i'm not one to put a bunch of faith in chinese economics.

there's not now -- nor likely to be real transparency in their economics.
heavy on government control{how much of that gov. gets corporate kickbacks} etc.

[The_Casual_Observer]

7. A reaction to chimp's claim that China is to blame

[Barrett808]

9. My thoughts exactly n/t

[fedsron2us]

8. Oil futures have been in a contango configuration

with August spot prices higher than those for May. This is normally a bullish indicator for a commodity. High crude prices pose a very real threat to the China and other Asian economies so they have a vested interest in trying to talk them down. Some commentators think that the US government may actually be encouraging speculation in oil. High energy prices reduce the competitive advantages of the Asian economies. They are also an indirect means of extracting the dollar surpluses held by countries such as China and recycling them back to the US via OPEC. The White House would far rather its debt was in the hands of the Saudi Arabian ruling elite who are dependent on US military support for their survival than the Chinese Communist Party in Beijing. Sometimes I think that recent events in the energy market have more than a hint of the Cold War about them.

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/GC02Ad07.html

[Jacobin]

10. A worldwide recession would do it

In the late 1990's when Asia went through the floor economically and China had yet to blossom into its powerhouse mode, oil got down to $12/bbl and I remember the chairman of Shell Oil Co saying it would be ten years before it got back up to $25/bbl

The demand is pushing it through the roof, along with the Chimpster's little adventure in IraqNam which has taken 2 Million bbls a day off the market, since it seems that Iraqi's won't allow us to steal it.

Who knows?

the Chimp is doing a pretty good job of wrecking the US economy, so its not a bad bet to think that when our economy nosedives (it'll be soon) it could set off an oil glut.....all in the short to medium term, since long term the supplies have peaked