Message, militia of firebrand cleric al Sadr resonate among Iraqi Shiites

[NNN0LHI]

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/krwashbureau/20050414/ts_krwashbureau/_bc_usiraq_sadr_wa&cid=2270&ncid=1473

BAGHDAD, Iraq - Eight months after the U.S. military claimed victory over the militia of firebrand Shiite Muslim cleric Muqtada al Sadr, his organization has grown in sophistication, won seats in the Iraqi National Assembly and on provincial councils, and continued to agitate for the expulsion of American forces from Iraq.

The re-emergence of al Sadr, after hundreds if not thousands of his fighters were killed in uprisings last year, points to his continuing ability to harness the widespread discontent of Iraq's millions of poor Shiites.


The Shiite community was grateful to see Saddam Hussein deposed, and it won considerable political power in the Jan. 30 national elections. However, many Shiites remain enraged by the continued American presence, Iraq's decrepit infrastructure, dangerous security conditions and the weak economy, according to interviews with Iraqi analysts and politicians.


Leaders of al Sadr's organization said they'd prefer to negotiate a withdrawal of the more than 140,000 American military personnel in Iraq, but that they're prepared to send their militia to the streets again.

[Rockerdem]

1. Sadr has gone political

Hes been neutered into being the Al Sharpton of Iraq. As long as Sistani is on the scene, Sadr will be a bit player.

[Teaser]

2. This is just wrong.

Sadr controls several city councils in Southern Iraq. His militia has engaged and repulsed the feared Badr Brigades of SCIRI and acts as the political muscle of at least one south-Iraq mayor. He controls a larger bloc of votes in the Iraqi parliament than most other Shiite groups on the UIA ticket. Furthermore, his message has grown more popular since Sistani's UIA lackeys have shelved their primary campaign promise: to set a timetable for US withdrawal. Sistani's bloc promised this would be their first order of business and have promptly "forgotten" about it. This has not gone unnoticed by the shi'ah populace. If the UIA continues to fail to deliver on this promise, Sadr's appeal will grow even greater.

[wtmusic]

4. Absolutely

Sadr was wanted for murder. Was pinned down in Najaf. And walked.

He has thumbed his nose at the great US. He probably has a bigger target on his back than any other man besides al-Zarqawi, but is one of the most popular.

Unfortunately for al-Sadr, his days are numbered. As his popularity continues to grow his danger to American (oil) interests will grow with it, and the US will engineer a "murder" (aka commando assasination). Is there any other scenario?

[Rockerdem]

5. Sadr has gone political, and he has his minority constituency

He has his fiefdom, and seems content with it. His militia has been spanked twice with the help and encouragement of the majority Shia leadership.

He is of no threat to the top Shia leadership. If he was, he would have been taken care of long ago by the former. Remember, most Iraqis (including the Shiites) are not radical religious people. Sadrs brand of militant Islam does not appeal to most of them.

[NNN0LHI]

3. Sistani is ancient if not dead. Sadr is 30ish. Who's going to last longer?

Bets anyone.

Don