STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday 8 April

[ozymandius]

Friday April 8, 2005

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 3 YEARS, 287 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 4 YEARS, 116 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 3 YEARS, 172 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1230
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON April 7, 2005

Dow... 10,546.32 +60.30 (+0.58%)
Nasdaq... 2,018.79 +19.65 (+0.98%)
S&P 500... 1,191.14 +7.07 (+0.60%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.47% +0.04 (+0.81%)
Gold future... 428.40 -0.80 (-0.19%)

GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie




PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Martin Goldberg

MARKETS AT KEY FORK IN THE ROAD

The stock, bond, gold, commodities, and currency markets stand at a serious fork in the road where the next couple of percentage points up or down may determine the direction of the next 10 to 15 percentage points. In this season of overstatements, I don’t think it would be an overstatement to suggest that the next week in the financial markets is critical. In the fundamental analysis community, positions have been taken and rationales described. Tonight, I’ll technical look at these markets because its time to either “put up or shut up”.

US Stocks

Every technician, amateur and professional alike, saw the bounce of the last few days coming in advance. The duration and magnitude of the bounce will establish whether the “on queue” rally has any serious trending implications. Just as the rally over the last few days was telegraphed, any decisive violation of the obvious support line will be taken as a sell signal by thousands of hedge funds and speculators in the amateur and professional ranks.

For this reason, my view is that if this neckline is broken decisively to the downside, the market will fall rapidly. The S&P 500 may drop down to the 1,100 mark in the blink of an eye. But if we pull back to a chart of the longer term time frame, a better perspective becomes apparent.

-cut-

Bonds

10-Year Rates

Below is a chart of the 10-year Treasury note yield dating back to January of 1999. The 10-year interest rate has bottomed in mid-2003, and in spite of some highly publicized rallies, the long-term trend of the 10-year note yield has been UP. If the 4.9% rate is broken to the upside (red dashed line), there is no significant resistance until 5.5%. One would have to wonder is this 5.5% rate increase would have a significant impact on the fragile and highly leveraged housing market. I’d expect that any threats of this line being broken will be met with a barrage of Greenspan and Bernanke speeches.



more...

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[UpInArms]

2. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 84.94 Change +0.07 (+0.08%)

Dollar Resumes Its Assault on Majors

http://www.dailyfx.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=641&Itemid=39

EUR/USD - Euro gave way after failing to hold the 1.2900 level with the dollar longs continuing to pushing the pair lower to the major support at 1.2730, a 2005 low, as break below will open the 1.2490 as a potential target, a key 61.8 Fib of the 1.1760-1.3667 euro rally.

A break below the 61.8 Fib level may see the pair retest the bids around 1.2000, a summer range low, thus wiping out gains euro made against the greenback since late August. As the dollar longs continue their advance toward the 1.2730, euro bulls will rely on a minor support at 1.2797, an Apr 7 low, with an intermediate support at 1.2757, Nov 5 spike low. In case the euro stages a counter move, euro longs will encounter a minor resistance at 1.2867, a 5-day SMA, with intermediate resistance seen at 1.2940, Apr 6 daily high. A major resistance at 1.2984, a Mar 30 daily spike high, currently protects the psychologically important 1.3000 level. Oscillators are oversold, with Stochastic extremely oversold on both daily chart at 9.14 and at 15.25 on the dealer (4HR) chart. RSI at 31.24 continues to skim the oversold level on the daily and is neutral at 36.33 on the 4-hour chart. MACD remains below the zero line on the daily chart and followed through with a bearish crossover below the zero line on the dealer (4HR) chart.

<snip>

USD/JPY - Yen continues to consolidate within an upward sloping channel as the dollar longs are getting ready to take another swing at the yen. Yen remains entrenched with dollar longs continuing to encounter minor resistance at 108.85, Apr 5 high, with an intermediate resistance at 109.14 an Oct 11 daily low establishing the first round of yen defenses. A major resistance at 109.14 an Oct 11 daily low, remains a the target for the dollar longs as a break above may see the greenback retest the resistance around the 111.48, a beginning of the Nov-Dec yen rally. Dollar longs continue to rely on minor support at 108.00, channel's lower boundary, with an intermediate support seen at 107.69 a 10-day SMA. A major support remains at 106.73, Apr spike low. Indicators remain mixed, with Stochastic extremely overbought on daily chart at 92.69 and dipping above the overbought line at 77.77 on the dealer (4HR) chart. RSI remains above the overbought line on the daily at 77.21 and is treading below the overbought line at 56.67 on the 4-hour chart. MACD continues to travel above the zero line on daily chart and is heading toward the zero line on the dealer (4HR) chart.

...more...

Yen Rising From the Ashes?

http://www.dailyfx.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=646&Itemid=39

Although one could hardly tell by the price action, the good news of the night came out of Japan where Machine Orders for February registered a healthy jump to 4.9% vs. 2.7% expected indicating that Capital Investment may underpin the Japanese recovery going forward.Additionally, the Eco Watchers survey rose to 49.5 from 45.6 - within a whisper of the critical 50 expansionary level. Long time readers know the importance we attach to this "man-in the-street" survey as a true snapshot of the state of the Japanese economy. Looking deeper into the numbers we see that Retail enjoyed a strong gain to 46.5 from 42.3 suggesting that higher oil prices may not be having as adverse an impact on the Japanese economy as FX market had feared.

There is nothing wrong with the Japanese economy that oil below $50/bbl will not cure. As crude prices finally recede from their all time highs, perhaps next week will bring a series of better news for both the economy and the country's currency. The yen has not really responded to tonight's positive data stubbornly holding at 108.70 and FX traders may need to see crude below $50/bbl before seriously bidding for the currency. However as USD/JPY approaches major resistance at the 110 level we feel that the pair is more likely to retrace rather than continue upward, unless oil barrels through the $60 handle, at which point all bets are off.

Meanwhile in the Euro-zone the EUR/USD continues to consolidate at the 1.2800 figure. Yesterday's drop in crude provided some support for the greenback and the pair quickly lost the 1.2900 level in New York trading. Tonight the German Current Account data printed slightly better at 13.5B vs. 12.8B expected but the rise wasn't due to the growth in exports but rather a sizable -3.7% decline in imports. Overall, with the barren US calendar for the day we may see dollar bulls try to press the stops at the 1.2800 figure especially if oil declines further, but the session is expected to be rather quiet, in marked contrast to last Friday's gyrations.

...more...

Outlooks for U.S., Euro Zone Worsen: OECD

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=8125592&src=rss/businessNews

PARIS (Reuters) - The outlook for economic growth in the United States and the euro zone has worsened, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) said on Friday.

The Paris-based think-tank said the United States' leading indicator, which summarizes information contained in several short-term indicators linked to gross domestic product, dipped to 103.1 in February after 103.2 in January.

The country's six-month rate of change, a measure which signals change in the pace of growth, decreased to 1.4 from 1.8, falling after three months of increases.

The leading index fell to 103.8 for the 30-nation OECD area as a whole in February after 104.0 in January. The six-month rate of change was down at 0.9 in February versus 1.4 in the month before, following nine months of decline.

"Slow expansion lies ahead in the OECD area according to the latest composite leading indicators (CLIs)," the OECD said.

"February data showed weakening performance in the CLI's six month rate of change in all of the Group of Seven major economies except Canada," it said.

...more...

Have a Great Day Marketeers!

[UpInArms]

14. Dollar higher ahead of Greenspan

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38450.3615061227-833976052&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - The dollar was higher against the euro and yen early Friday, ahead of a speech by Federal Reserve chief Alan Greenspan on consumer finance. In two prior public appearances this week Greenspan largely avoided the subjects of inflation and interest rates. Currency markets players are eager for clues about the direction of U.S. interest rates policy. There are no U.S. economic data reports Friday. The euro was down 0.2% at $1.2819 and the dollar up 0.2% at 108.78 yen.

[spotbird]

31. The dollar is heading south all of a sudden.

Wonder why.

[UpInArms]

3. AIG does its backdoor deals offshore

http://www.smh.com.au/news/Business/AIG-does-its-backdoor-deals-offshore/2005/04/07/1112815670220.html?oneclick=true

Investigators have learned that two offshore insurers that appeared to have no affiliation with American International Group were secretly backed by the global insurance giant through complex agreements.

According to people briefed on the matter, an AIG affiliate had secretly guaranteed investments that other companies had made in the offshore insurers, effectively making those insurers' operations part of AIG.

AIG also had links with General Reinsurance, whose Australian arm provided a contract that propped up the balance sheet of FAI and ultimately contributed to the $5 billion collapse of the insurance group HIH.

Details of the latest AIG transactions came to light on Wednesday when officials in the New York Attorney-General's office interviewed executives from Munich Reinsurance, the German insurance group. Munich Re, as it is known, was an investor in Richmond Insurance Co, an obscure Bermuda insurer that conducted all of its business with AIG.

<snip>

People briefed on the matter said AIG hid its control of the offshore companies by inviting other insurers to invest in them while having one of its affiliates agree to buy back their stakes at the purchase price, should the investors want out. The deals were structured as put options, requiring the AIG affiliate to stand ready to buy back the stakes from investors at any time.

...more...

[UpInArms]

26. Report: AIG transaction papers doctored

http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D89B8F0O0.htm?campaign_id=apn_home_down

APR. 8 9:30 A.M. ET Documents for a reinsurance transaction that is at the center of federal and state probes into American International Group Inc. were doctored several months after the deal was struck, The New York Times reported Friday.

The Times, quoting unnamed "executives with direct knowledge of the transaction," said the deal was "repapered" by midlevel employees of General Re, a unit of Omaha, Neb.- based Berkshire Hathaway.

The paper said the modification was detected by Berkshire Hathaway-hired lawyers doing an audit of General Re in connection with an unrelated case.

The Securities and Exchange Commission and New York Attorney General Eliot Spitzer are investigating the transaction, which occurred in the final quarter of 2000 and the first quarter of 2001, to determine if AIG improperly booked the deal to burnish its books.

AIG recently admitted that accounting for the deal was improper.

...more...

[UpInArms]

4. SEC moves to secure AIG documents

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BA16FF0D1%2D40EE%2D4DCE%2DA639%2D3CD5F6A04C85%7D&siteid=mktw

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- The Securities and Exchange Commission said Thursday that it obtained a court order to prevent Maurice "Hank" Greenberg and others from destroying or hiding documents connected with its investigation of insurance giant American International Group.

The consent order, issued by the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York, allows the SEC to take any documents being held by Greenberg, C.V. Starr and AIG (AIG: news, chart, profile) .

<snip>

"We sought this order in response to reports of the movement of documents subject to this investigation," said Mark Schonfeld, director of the SEC's northeast regional office. "This order will ensure the security and integrity of documents is preserved and that relevant evidence will be available in our ongoing investigation."

Late last month, a lawyer for Greenberg took boxes of documents out of an AIG office in Bermuda and drove off with them in a van, The Wall Street Journal reported.

Lawyers representing AIG arrived the next day to find some company records were missing. They also learned an AIG employee had destroyed some computer records and tapes of business meetings, the newspaper said.

...more...

[UpInArms]

5. GM pulls ads from Los Angeles Times

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B0CB44413%2D7AA5%2D4AE4%2D8276%2DE4263EC30993%7D&siteid=mktw

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- General Motors Corp. has pulled its advertising from Tribune Co.'s Los Angeles Times, according to a media report Thursday.

At the heart of the issue is "some factual errors and misrepresentations in the editorial coverage," GM spokeswoman Ryndee Carney was quoted as saying in a story in the online version of The Wall Street Journal. "It's not just one story. It's a series of things that have happened over time, and we've made our objections known to the paper, and so we'd like to keep our discussions between us and the paper private."

<snip>

One person familiar with the situation told the Journal that the amount is perceived by people in the ad industry as "highly significant" and that the action against one of the nation's largest metropolitan newspaper is seen as punitive.

<snip>

The decision comes one day after Times published auto reporter Dan Neil's weekly column, in which he wrote that GM's Pontiac G6 was a "sales flop" and that former North American Chairman Robert Lutz and Chief Executive Rick Wagoner should be ousted.

...more...

[UpInArms]

8. GM cut to sell at Deutsche, price target cut to $24

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38450.2218963194-833972100&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- Deutsche Bank overnight cut its rating on General Motors (GM) to sell from hold and also said it was initiating coverage of GM's fixed income securities with a sell rating. Analysts cut their price target to $24 from $28. Deutsche kept a sell rating on GM rival Ford Motor Co. (F) and lowered its price target on F to $10 from $12. "Based on our outlook for worse than widely expected U.S. market share, severe profit deterioration from adverse mix, and limited near-term progress on fixed costs, we believe that the deterioration that we are likely to see in GM profitability and its balance sheet will be alarming to both equity and bond investors," the analysts said.

[UpInArms]

27. General Motors leads decline in auto group

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38450.4549436574-833979380&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- General Motors shares (GM) fell 1.9% to $29.95 on Friday, leading a broad decline in the auto sector after Deutsche Bank cuts its rating on the stock to sell from hold. Ford Motor (F) lost 1.4% to $11.14, and DaimlerChrysler (DCX) shed 1.1% to $42.03. Shares of Japan's three biggest manufacturers all declined as well with Toyota Motor (TM) off 1.2% to $75.66.

[UpInArms]

6. Today's high gas prices have many roots

http://www.kansascity.com/mld/kansascity/news/politics/11337734.htm

WASHINGTON - (KRT) - You're at the gas pump, fuming about $2.25 or more for a gallon of regular unleaded. Who's getting rich off you, how'd prices get so high, who's to blame?

Not your local convenience store, where three-quarters of Americans buy their gas. Shop owners make a penny or two per gallon. Their bonanza is inside the store, not at the pumps. They're feeling your pain because Americans are spending on gas what they used to spend on Snickers bars or Slurpees.

The most obvious villains are the giant oil companies and rich oil countries such as Saudi Arabia. But they're just two pieces of a complicated answer to why the price at the pump is so high.

<snip>

The biggest reason pump prices have risen is the surging global price of crude oil, which is refined into gasoline. Crude oil prices are set on international markets, where price generally is determined by old-fashioned supply and demand. When a product is in short supply, people are willing to pay more for it.

<snip>

"The oil market, believe it or not, is being fueled by your pension fund," said Philip K. Verleger, a noted oil economist in Aspen, Colo. "For more than a decade, investment bankers have been advising pension funds to put 10 percent or 11 percent of their assets into commodities."

The New York Mercantile Exchange last month reported an all-time high in trading for crude oil-futures contracts. Regulators said noncommercial traders, pension funds and the more speculative hedge funds accounted for 34 percent of the contracts last month.

...more...

[UpInArms]

7. US Attorney looks into possible faked WMT invoices: WSJ

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38450.2793961921-833973439&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The U.S. attorney for the Western District of Arkansas is inquiring into a possible pattern of expense-account abuses and use of false invoices to obtain reimbursements at Wal-Mart, (WMT) The Wall Street Journal Online reported. Documents that the Journal reviewed suggest that Thomas M. Coughlin, who retired as a Wal-Mart executive in January and resigned from the board March 25, periodically had subordinates create fake invoices to get the Bentonville, Ark., retailer to pay for his personal expenses, the paper reported. Coughlin also told several Wal-Mart employees that certain expense payments were being used for anti-union activities, including paying union staff to tell him of pro-union workers in stores, people familiar with the matter told the Journal. Wal-Mart shares fell 60 cents, or 1.2 percent, to $48.90 on Thursday.

[UpInArms]

9. 215 are being laid off at Tecumseh

http://www.jsonline.com/bym/news/apr05/316367.asp

Tecumseh Products Co. has announced a sudden, large layoff at its New Holstein plant that employs about 1,100 people and makes small engines used in lawn-and-garden equipment.

About 215 employees will be out of work for an unknown length of time, a state Department of Workforce Development official said Thursday. An additional 80 employees are scheduled for layoff later this year as Tecumseh eliminates engine assembly work in New Holstein, according to a written notice from the company.

Tecumseh is the largest employer in Calumet County, according to New Holstein Mayor Ron Karrels.

Any large layoff affects the entire area, he said.

Officials with Tecumseh, which is based in Michigan, would not comment on the New Holstein layoffs. But employees said they were scheduled to take effect today.

...more...

[UpInArms]

10. (500) Layoffs at Sears Holdings

http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/chi-0504080382apr08,1,4982731.story?coll=chi-business-hed&ctrack=1&cset=true

At least 500 workers will lose their jobs as part of a "mass layoff" at the Hoffman Estates headquarters of Sears Holdings Corp., according to a revised filing on a state government Web site.

The Illinois Department of Commerce and Economic Opportunity last week posted that Sears was eliminating 250 jobs. Earlier this week, the number on its Web site was revised to 500.

Also, Sears said Thursday that Janine Bousquette, who had been chief customer and marketing officer for Sears Roebuck, is leaving the nation's biggest department store chain.

Sears spokesman Chris Brathwaite declined to comment beyond the filing and said it has not been determined how many workers will be let go. Sears has said that job cuts will be announced at the end of April.

...more...

[UpInArms]

11. March U.S. trading volume was 2.3B shares

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38450.3415060995-833975397&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- March U.S. trading volume came to 2.3 billion shares, or an average of 106 million shares a day, Investment Technology Group Inc. (ITG) said Friday. That compares with 1.7 billion shares traded in February and 1.6 million shares traded in March of last year. There were 22 trading days in March 2005, 19 trading in February and 20 trading days in March 2004, ITG said. For the year-to-date, trading volume stands at 5.83 billion shares, or an average of 95.5 million shares a day. ITG's stock closed down 11 cents at $17.33 Thursday.

[UpInArms]

12. Military Madness

Cubic gets 5-year pact from Army worth potential $71.7M

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38450.3574328819-833975960&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Cubic Corp. said Friday it has received a five-year contract from the U.S. Army with a potential value of $71.7 million. The deal calls for Cubic to provide Homestation training systems for Army, Army Reserve and National Guard sites. The stock closed Thursday at $19.78, up 1.4 percent.

[UpInArms]

13. Engineered Support gets Army order worth $7.2M

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38450.3610603588-833976024&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Engineered Support Systems Inc. (EASI) said Friday it has received an order worth $7.2 million from the U.S. Army. The deal calls for the company to provide a security system for the Walter Reed Army Medical Center. The stock closed Thursday at $54.86, up 2 percent.

[ozymandius]

19. How curious it is that the Federal deficit equals the DoD budget. n/t

[UpInArms]

15. Warning - Warning Will Robinson

LaBranche earnings to miss Street target

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B794B3BF0%2D8151%2D4BE7%2DBC67%2DE81CFCD258BC%7D&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- LaBranche & Co. said Friday unfavorable January market conditions, lower volatility and increased program trading will cut its first quarter earnings to the 2 to 4 cents per share range, below Wall Street's 11 cents per share estimate.

...more...

Seems to be lots of these coming in :eyes:

[UpInArms]

17. Michaels chairman traded shares through non-U.S. trusts (insider deals)

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38450.379950544-833976776&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Michaels Stores Inc. (MIK) said Friday its chairman and vice chairman have undertaken to reimburse the company for any "short-swing" profits from insider transactions after discovering the directors beneficially traded shares through non-U.S. trusts. According to a regulatory filing, Chairman Charles Wyly Jr. and Vice Chairman Sam Wyly are the beneficial owners collectively of 10.9 million shares, or 7.9%, or the company's outstanding stock, Michaels said. On Feb. 23 the company received a subpoena form the New York district attorney related to beneficial ownership of the company stock through non-U.S. trusts. Michaels will update its proxy statement for its 2005 annual meeting to reflect shares beneficially owned by its chairman and vice chairman through non-U.S. trusts. Shares closed up 7 cents to $36.50 Thursday.

sounds rather unethical and perhaps illegal to me - but, gee whiz, their gonna "reimburse" the company for it :eyes:

[UpInArms]

22. Misonix narrows 2005 sales view, cuts EPS forecast

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38450.4077809606-833977859&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Misonix Inc. (MSON) on Friday cut its 2005 forecast, citing a change in its revenue mix, increased spending, and technical issues surrounding its neuroaspirator. The Farmingdale, N.Y.-based maker of medical, scientific and industrial ultrasonic and air pollution systems said it now expects 2005 revenue growth of 12%-15% compared with its previous expectation of 10% to 15% growth. Earnings per share are now expected to be similar to those of 2004, Misonix said. It had previously forecast earnings per share growth of 25% to 30%.

[UpInArms]

24. Warning weighs on USF, Yellow Roadway

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BF4CB939F%2D855A%2D4DE7%2DB105%2DEDF10D4B414E%7D&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Shares of both Yellow Roadway Corp. and USF Corp. slumped Friday after USF said it would post greatly reduced first-quarter earnings, coming in well short of expectations and casting a shadow over Yellow's nearly $1.5 billion offer for its trucking competitor.

USF said after the market closed Wednesday it would earn between 12 cents and 16 cents a share, well below the Thomson First Call-derived average estimate of 38 cents. USF (USFC: news, chart, profile) cited a slowdown in automotive industry shipments, slow growth in the Northeast at its USF Holland division, and competition in the Southeast.

<snip>

J.P. Morgan analyst Gregory Burns said some weakness in USF's first quarter was expected, in light of production cutbacks at General Motors Corp. (GM: news, chart, profile) . Hauling auto parts accounts for 20% of USF's total revenue.

...more...

more GM fallout

[UpInArms]

25. Electroglas tumbles after lowering Q1 revenue view

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38450.4279016782-833978584&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Shares of Electroglas (EGLS) dropped more than 20% to $3.06 early Friday after the San Jose, Calif., maker of testing technology products for semiconductor manufacturing lowered its revenue outlook for the first quarter, citing the adverse impact of weak book-to-bill numbers in January and February. The company now expects revenue of $7.7 million to $8 million in the March quarter. Its prior projection was for revenue to be approximately equal with its $11.2 million total in the fourth quarter.

[UpInArms]

28. Borland issues Q1 profit warning

http://www.cbronline.com/article_news.asp?guid=5FDFE8EF-72AF-49B2-B165-90087B52D809

The Scotts Valley, California-based software development services provider warned investors that it is likely to record a GAAP loss for its first quarter. The company expects to make a loss of 1 to 3 cents a share on a GAAP basis, against revenue of $71m for the quarter.

Previous guidance from the company had pointed to 3 to 5 cents a share on $79m revenue.

The company clearly expects the gloom to linger after also cutting its second quarter forecasts as well. It now expects second quarter revenues to be flat sequentially. Analysts had been expecting revenue in the $83m range for the quarter. Q2.

The company cited the usual excuses for its weak performance - slower closure rates in the US and Europe for large deals and a continued soft spending environment.

...more...

[UpInArms]

29. March Retail Sales Mostly Miss Estimates

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/04/08/business/08shops.html?adxnnl=1&adxnnlx=1112972730-k8LpFy8UAhwSKI/lv+9/cQ&oref=login

The nation's retailers struggled with mixed sales in March as cold weather kept many shoppers indoors, but analysts said consumers' willingness to spend nonetheless appeared robust.

According to the Goldman Sachs retail composite index, March sales at stores open at least a year rose 3.3 percent, compared with 6.8 percent in March 2004. Analysts had estimated a March increase of 4 percent.

Wal-Mart Stores and Limited Brands posted results yesterday that fell short of Wall Street forecasts. J. C. Penney said its sales missed estimates, while the discount department store operator Kohl's also posted an unexpected drop. May Department Stores widely missed forecasts.

...more...

[MARALE]

38. Look at all the warnings!

I have been working away from my desk and came back at lunch. Wow, the market has lost all that it gained this week so far.

Stocks take a hit after profit warnings

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B096C9E35%2D00D3%2D4ADD%2DAA7E%2DCF6348F4BF26%7D&siteid=mktw

...

The Dow has a winning streak on the line that could reach five consecutive sessions for the first time since late October. The blue-chip gauge also could post its first positive week in five.

"Obviously, after four days up we're due for a little pause to refresh," said Al Goldman, chief market strategist at A.G. Edwards.

Goldman said any pullbacks likely will be moderate, however, and he recommended investors look at them as buying opportunities.
...

:crazy: :banghead: :popcorn: :rofl: :crazy: :banghead: :popcorn: :rofl: :crazy: :banghead: :popcorn: :rofl:

[ozymandius]

16. 8:30 pre-open blather

S&P futures vs fair value: +0.8.
Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +3.0.

Still shaping up to be a modestly higher open for the indices... The absence of notable earnings reports and economic data, however, has prevented buyers from potentially stepping in with more conviction... Meanwhile, the possibility that Pfizer (PFE) could lose Moody's Investors Service's highest credit rating should keep the drug maker in focus while General Motors (GM) has made headlines again, receiving its second analyst downgrade in as many days

[ozymandius]

18. Finally, the truth comes out, the "invisible hand" is the Fed

The Invisible Hand
(of the U.S. Government)
in Financial Markets
by Robert Bell

Summary: The U.S. government is manipulating all major U.S. financial markets—stocks, treasuries, currencies. This article shows how it is possible and how it is done, why it is done, who specifically is doing it, when they do it, and where they get the money to do it.

Most people probably believe that the major capital markets in the U.S. are basically true markets with, occasionally, maybe very occasionally, a little bit of rigging here and there. But evidence shows that the opposite is the case—the rigging is fundamental with a little bit of true markets here and there. I have discussed how this works concerning U.S. and some other stock markets in an earlier article.<1> Here I will primarily discuss the rigging of currency and U.S. Treasury markets.

-cut-

Plunge Protection

Programmed trading in an utterly concentrated stock market pretty much guarantees the possibility of systematic and continual market rigging. But to accomplish this, and coordinate it with the currency and Treasury markets, some sort of orchestrating mechanism would need to exist. It does; it is known as the President’s Working Group on Financial Markets, occasionally referred to in the business press as the Plunge Protection Team. Then President Ronald Reagan signed it into existence on 18 March 1988, with the specific intension to avoid another stock market crash such as that of 19 October 1987. The Working Group’s existence is no mystery. See for yourself. Go to Google and type in Executive Order 12631. You will find the Executive Order, and even a 14 November 2003 statement from Secretary of the Treasury John Snow giving a brief history of the Working Group, describing its policy advisory activities, and concluding with these words: “It also is a forum used to exchange information during market turmoil through ad hoc conference calls and meetings.”

-cut-

Guess Whose Money is Used to Buy Stock Market Insurance?

There is even a potentially unlimited source of money to do this pumping. Federal government contractors operate under a special law, CAS, in their defined benefits pension plans. This gives them stock portfolio insurance, something which small fry players would obviously like to get, but can’t find anyone willing to issue. Should the pension funds of the federal government contractors lose money in their investments to the degree that they fall below minimum reserve requirements imposed by other federal laws, they can simply make up the difference by adding it on pro-rata to subsequent items sold to the federal government. The vast sums of federal tax money devoted to plugging the holes in the pension fund for the largest Pentagon contractor, Lockheed Martin, were discovered by Ken Pedeleose, an analyst at the Defense Contract Management Agency. He was concerned about staggering cost increases for the C-130J transport but a chart he made public showed the mind boggling per plane cost increases for a number of Lockheed Martin airplanes. The chart amounted to a Rosetta Stone for the military-industrial complex. It showed, essentially, how the military-industrial complex linked to the stock market through the Lockheed Martin pension fund, and by extension through all the others covered by the same law.

-cut-

Treasuries Exchanged for Jobs

The U.S. Treasury holdings of Japan and China are essentially a consequence of a trade imbalance between the U.S. and these two countries, with the balance heavily tilted to the latter. To maintain the imbalance, which they both clearly want to do, both countries must keep their currency pegged against the dollar at a lower rate than it might otherwise be. If they did not do that, the Toshiba computers, Toyota cars and other quality items made in Japan would be more expensive, and so Japan wouldn’t sell as many of them in the U.S. A similar case holds for vast numbers of Chinese manufactured items sold pretty much everywhere, but notoriously at  Wal-Mart.  To keep the items relatively cheap, the central banks of those countries keep their currencies cheap by buying a corresponding amount of dollars, thus supporting the dollar against their currencies. The dollar may essentially collapse against the euro, but not against the yen and the yuan.

more... if you have the stomach to read what economic poison the Bush administration is feeding us intravenously.

http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/reality/2005/0403.html

[UpInArms]

20. thanks for that article, Ozy -

:wow:

also from the link:

With the dollars the Japanese and Chinese central banks have bought, they can buy something denominated in U.S. dollars; the item of choice is U.S. Treasuries since it is like holding dollars that pay interest. So this has the effect of pumping the price of Treasuries too. Because the items made in China and Japan are cheaper than those of corresponding quality made in the U.S. (in the case of many Japanese items, there may not be U.S. items of similar quality), the effect is to create manufacturing jobs in those countries while simultaneously losing them in the U.S. In effect the jobs are exported and foreign currency is imported to buy dollars and then Treasuries.

This has an advantage for the Bush administration, which has the ruinously ridiculous policies of simultaneously cutting taxes and waging wars or building up for them. In effect, the basic racket is: the Bush administration exports jobs to these countries, and in turn they finance Bush’s fiscal deficit so he can continue his wars and cut taxes for his friends. The deficit for 2005 will be at least $400 billion, according to the Congressional Budget Office.<7> The Pentagon budget for 2005 was about $400 billion. Add in two supplemental requests for the costs of his Iraq war and the Pentagon figure is roughly $500 billion. “It is interesting to note that the military budget is about the same order of magnitude as the fiscal deficit,” said veteran Pentagon waste fighter Ernest Fitzgerald.

The tax cuts were at least in part intended to stimulate spending—the purchase of all those Toshibas, Toyotas and Chinese whatnots. So the fiscal deficit is intimately linked to the current account deficit. If the money had been taxed away to pay for Bush’s current war and arms build-up for future ones, it would not be in people’s pockets to pay even for the down payments on the Toyotas.

But won’t the Japanese and Chinese central banks ultimately get burned by holding vast quantities of dollar denominated assets? Sure, if the dollar ever collapses against their currencies too. The dollar having fallen roughly 30% against the euro since the beginning of the war in Iraq, the same fate or worse could await these Asian currencies. With currently issued Treasuries paying a coupon rate of no more than 4%, they would be materially shafted on their investments in U.S. Treasuries. Then why don’t they bail out?

[punpirate]

33. Here's a little more on how L-M and others...

... are using CAS to their advantage:

http://depthome.brooklyn.cuny.edu/economics/BarcelonaStockmarketPaper.htm

Quite astonishing. I used to think of defense spending as a metaphorical propping up of many contractors--but this states that it is a quite literal process.

[UpInArms]

21. 9:45 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,544.62 -1.70 (-0.02%)
Nasdaq 2,018.78 -0.01 (-0.00%)
S&P 500 1,190.88 -0.26 (-0.02%)
10-Yr Bond 4.494 +0.22 (+0.49%)

NYSE Volume 100,406,000
Nasdaq Volume 120,992,000

9:40AM: Stocks open relatively unchanged and struggle to gain much traction out of the gate, as investors weigh falling oil prices, encouraging merger activity and strength in overseas markets with a slew of mixed corporate news and analyst actions... Meanwhile, the Dow is coming off its first four-day advance in more than 3 months while the S&P hasn't enjoyed four straight days of gains since mid-February... The Nasdaq, on the heels of a nearly 1.0% advance, enjoyed its first close above 2000 this month...

With even the slightest gains today, the major averages could add to an already 1.5% weekly advance...

9:15AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +0.9. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +3.0.

9:00AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +0.9. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +3.0. A slightly positive start for the cash market remains intact, as futures indications hold steady above fair value... Raised Q3 guidance from Emulex (ELX) could provide a boost to Computer Storage this morning while downside Q1 guidance from Borland (BORL), in contrast, could invite selling pressure in the Software space

[UpInArms]

23. 10:15 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,525.08 -21.24 (-0.20%)
Nasdaq 2,017.46 -1.33 (-0.07%)
S&P 500 1,189.16 -1.98 (-0.17%)
10-Yr Bond 4.511 +0.39 (+0.87%)

NYSE Volume 268,459,000
Nasdaq Volume 288,589,000

10:00AM: Still little conviction on the part of both buyers and sellers, as nearly every sector remains relatively unchanged... Of the ten economic sectors, sentiment remains evenly split, as five have traded higher and five have traded lower, with a 0.3% decline in Materials - due in part to modest strength in the dollar - being the largest move in either direction...

Computer Storage (+0.8%), however, has gotten a respectable boost amid raised Q3 guidance from Emulex (ELX 19.51 +1.15) while Transportation (-1.4%), in contrast, has sold off after USF Corp (USFC 46.75 -2.22) said Q1 earnings will miss analysts' forecasts...NYSE Adv/Dec 1059/1322, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1102/1162

[UpInArms]

30. 11:10 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,518.18 -28.14 (-0.27%)
Nasdaq 2,013.61 -5.18 (-0.26%)
S&P 500 1,188.07 -3.07 (-0.26%)
10-Yr Bond 4.521 +0.49 (+1.10%)

NYSE Volume 515,501,000
Nasdaq Volume 513,775,000

11:00AM: Little changed since the last update as the indices continue to languish near session lows... Arguably overbought conditions, in the wake of a 1.5% weekly advance across the board for the major averages, could be a contributing factor to the weakening sentiment... The unnerving reality that Q1 earnings may have grown at a more modest 8-8.5% - or more than half the 19.7% pace enjoyed in Q4 - may also be prompting some modest profit taking heading into the weekend...NYSE Adv/Dec 945/1921, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1008/1681

10:30AM: Market slips further below the flat line as bond yields continue to climb... While a fifth straight day of declines in oil prices has provided a floor of buying support for equities, Treasurys have followed suit to the downside, lifting yields on the 10-year note (-8/32) back above the psychological 4.50% level... Bonds have also been under pressure following Philly Fed President Santomero's comments yesterday regarding the possibility that the Fed - currently acting in such an attenuated fashion - may undershoot the optimal policy stance...NYSE Adv/Dec 1123/1660, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1133/1399

Got to run Marketeers!

Am handing off the torch - hopefully someone will pick it up and keep the DUers up to date today :hi:

[loudsue]

32. Thanks for the updates, Marketeers! Some great articles today!

:applause: The articles posted today are great! Thanks!

Looks like the market is heading back down some. Maybe Kool-Aid is in short supply!

:kick:

[ozymandius]

36. Thanks loudsue!

It has been a banner day of sagging reports. Oil is down yesterday while stocks went up. oil is down again today while stocks go down. The retail sector is a potent factor.

[ozymandius]

34. 12:56 numbers and blather

Dow
10,502.95
-43.37
(-0.41%)

Nasdaq
2,008.08
-10.71
(-0.53%)

S&P 500
1,186.65
-4.49
(-0.38%)

10-Yr Bond
44.99
+0.27
(+0.60%)

NYSE Volume
887,544,000

Nasdaq Volume
821,352,000

12:30PM: Sellers remain in control of the action, as the major averages continue to chalk up losses... On the Dow, American International Group (AIG 52.09 -0.90) has paced the way lower after it received a request from the SEC to protect offshore documents while General Motors (GM 29.78 -0.08) has been under pressure after Deutsche Bank downgraded the automaker to Sell from Hold, citing market share declines and increasing raw materials costs...

Meanwhile, Wal-Mart (WMT 48.81 -0.69) and Pfizer (PFE 26.72 -0.14) have extended yesterday's losses, with the latter under pressure amid the possibility that Moody's Investors Service may cut its highest credit rating on the drug maker... Minimizing some of the losses, however, have been strong gains in AA (+5.7%), INTC (+2.0%), MRK (+1.9%), MSFT (+1.7%), KO (+1.3%) and PG (+1.2%)...NYSE Adv/Dec 1052/1997, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 988/1856

[loudsue]

35. Hmmm. I wonder if it will break below 10,500?

The Plunge Protection Team must be sitting on the edge of their seats.

:kick:

[ozymandius]

37. close to it.

1:26 figures and blather

Dow
10,507.16
-39.16
(-0.37%)

Nasdaq
2,008.42
-10.37
(-0.51%)

S&P 500
1,186.68
-4.46
(-0.37%)

10-Yr Bond
4.48%
+0.01

NYSE Volume
971,061,000

Nasdaq Volume
897,871,00

1:00PM: Stocks still mired in relatively tight trading ranges, showing little reaction to continued weakness in oil... Crude oil futures at $53.30/bbl (-$0.81) have now fallen more than 8.5% from Monday's record high of $58.28/bbl, which has largely been attributed to an EIA report that showed refineries processed the most crude oil last week since January...

But until the commodity trades closer to $52.50/bbl - a widely-watched negative technical indicator - it appears a more than 1.5% decline in oil prices, in the absence of an offsetting sell off in Treasurys, will be necessary to underpin a more convincingly positive sentiment for stocks... NYSE Adv/Dec 1066/2004, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1003/1872

[RawMaterials]

39. 2:40 Under 10500

Dow 10491.20 -55.12 (-0.52%)
Nasdaq 2003.62 -15.17 (-0.75%)
S&P 500 1184.54 -6.60 (-0.55%)
10-Yr Bond 4.478% +0.06

NYSE Volume 1,191,242,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,096,151,000


2:30PM: Sellers show some resolve, as the indices fall to new session lows amid lackluster volume... While total volume has continued to tail off, with each session seeing less activity then the last, it's been little surprise that today's pace has run even slower, as shares trading hands on the Nasdaq have only just now surpassed 1.0 bln... Fortunately for the bulls, who've still enjoyed gains of roughly 1.0% across the major averages this week, the quality of today's sell off appears poor to say the least, as investors gear up for the first full week of Q1 earnings reports...NYSE Adv/Dec 1041/2120, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 973/1963

2:00PM: Equities remain on the defensive as the bulk of sector leadership remains negative... Pacing the way lower have been Railroads (-2.9%), Steel (-2.9%), Internet Retail (-2.2%), Automobile Manufacturers (-2.2%) and Health Care Distributors (-2.0%)... A select number of groups have attracted buyers, however, including Housewares & Specialties (+1.1%), Electronic Manufacturing Services (+1.0%) and Computer Storage & Peripherals (+0.7%)...NYSE Adv/Dec 1081/2034, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1030/1888

[KoKo]

41. hmm if these numbers stay low through the close means look out below?

Isn't that what Goldberg was saying in Ozy's post this a.m.? But, I guess he said give it another week?

[KoKo]

42. LOL's Nan.....we both did that "hmmm..."

:D...

[AnneD]

40. Outstanding and illuminating posts today

Thanks guys.

[RawMaterials]

43. Closing Numbers and Blather

Dow 10461.34 -84.98 (-0.81%)
Nasdaq 1999.35 -19.44 (-0.96%)
S&P 500 1181.20 -9.94 (-0.83%)
10-Yr Bond 4.491% +0.19

NYSE Volume 1,642,650,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,483,482,000



Close: The major indices closed lower on the day, but eked out weekly gains, as another sell off in oil and new M&A activity were not enough to offset investor uncertainty heading into earnings season and some profit taking amid lackluster volumes... Now that earnings season has officially begun, investors' attentions will be focused on profit growth over the next few weeks...

While it is widely anticipated that Q1 earnings - due in large part to rising commodity prices during the quarter - grew less than half (approximately 8.0-8.5%) of the better than expected 19.7% pace enjoyed in Q4, there was an increasing amount of uncertainty about owning stocks into the weekend that underpinned a firmly bearish bias... Arguably overbought conditions, as the major averages (before today) had gained an average of 1.5% during the week, also weighed on sentiment enough to prompt widespread profit taking that kept buyers from ever coming back and virtually every sector in negative territory...

But while total volume was much lower than usual, as the number of shares traded on the NYSE did not surpass 1.0 bln until only a half hour of trading remained, such subdued action arguably raises the question as to whether or not such a sell off will be sustainable... Not even a 1.5% decline in crude oil futures ($53.32/bbl -$0.79), which also closed down 7.2% on the week and more than 8.5% below record highs ($58.28/bbL), amid speculation that rising refinery production will increase gasoline stockpiles, was enough to prevent profit taking in equities... Nor was news that Time Warner (TWX 17.97 +0.09) and Comcast (CMCSA 33.44 +0.44) teamed up to acquire bankrupt Adelphia for roughly $18 bln in cash and stock enough to keep sellers on the sidelines...

Energy was the weakest of the 10 economic sectors, amid oil's fifth straight day of declines, while Materials (-1.4%) was a close second... The latter was dragged lower by a sell off in Steel (-3.4%), which was spurred by a downgrade on U.S. Steel (X 48.22 -2.13) as well as comments about declining prices, a reversal in earnings momentum and a potential global supply demand imbalance... Transportation also plummeted amid news that USF Corp.'s (USFC 45.67 -2.83) Q1 earnings will miss analysts' forecasts by more than 50%, further adding to recent worries that freight demand may be slowing...

Financial (-0.7%), Health Care (-0.8%) and Technology (-0.7%) were also influential leaders to the downside, with the latter incurring weakness throughout every sub-sector... While not a large player within the consolidating software arena, a 17% drubbing in shares of Borland (BORL 6.19 -1.30) - which hit a new 52-week low after issuing downside Q1 EPS and revenue guidance - did anything but improve the profit outlooks heading into 4-5 long weeks earnings...

A couple of bright spots, however, included Housewares & Specialties (+1.5%) and Photo Products (+1.2%), but neither industry group qualifies as having a large influence on overall market activity... Throughout much of the session, rising bond yields weighed on sentiment, as yields on the benchmark 10-year note (-1/32) surpassed the psychological 4.50% mark after Philly Fed President Santomero hinted at more aggressive Fed tightening... Treasurys, however, erased early declines amid some pre-weekend insurance buying to close relatively unchanged, as there was also no economic data to today for traders to digest and oil prices recovered somewhat...

Separately, Fed Chairman Greenspan spoke for the third time this week, but since his prepared text made no mention of the economy or monetary policy, neither the stock nor bond markets found his comments of much interest...NYSE Adv/Dec 948/2281, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 966/2080

[loudsue]

44. Holy Shyte! Just checked in for the closing numbers! Down, down, down

:rofl: It went below 10,500 for sure! Guess the house took all the wins at the casino today!

:applause: Thanks Marketeers! Have a good weekend!! :applause: