STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday 7 April

[ozymandius]

Thursday April 7, 2005

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 3 YEARS, 288 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 4 YEARS, 115 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 3 YEARS, 171 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1229
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON April 6, 2005

Dow... 10,486.02 +27.56 (+0.26%)
Nasdaq... 1,999.14 -0.18 (-0.01%)
S&P 500... 1,184.07 +2.68 (+0.23%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.44% -0.03 (-0.76%)
Gold future... 429.20 +2.60 (+0.61%)

GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie




PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Mike Hartman

TAX GAMES; GLOBAL ECONOMY SLOWING

Throughout the morning and into the lunch hour, U.S. asset prices have been higher across the board. The Dow Industrials and NASDAQ are up, bond prices are marginally higher, and the U.S. dollar is appreciating against most major currencies, especially the yen. As I write the dollar is beginning to roll-over and is just about to go negative for the first time in today’s trading. A little later I’ll go back and check the dollar to see if it picks up again to close in positive territory. When I sit back and try to discern what is happening in the big picture, I keep asking myself, “Where is all this money coming from to buy U.S. assets?” I have two answers to the question, but one came as a surprise to me yesterday when I learned of legislation passed last year that gave favorable tax treatment to U.S. corporations with offshore business.

First I’ll cover a few items in the news, then move on to what I believe is providing temporary support for the U.S. dollar and U.S. asset prices overall. Interest rates have been drifting lower ever since the markets overreacted to Greenspan’s tough talk on inflation a couple weeks ago. Some bond analysts are suggesting Greenspan will not deliver on his promised rate increases, and bond market participants are looking at a weaker global economy for the balance of this year. With that, the Mortgage Bankers Association said rates on 30-year fixed mortgages dropped from 6.08% to 5.91% and one-year ARMS fell from 4.39% to 4.29%. The MBA’s application index fell 4.4% with the purchase index declining 5.3% and the re-finance index down 3.1%. This tells me the economic stimulus from a hot housing market has clearly seen its peak. Higher rates will slow demand for housing or at least curtail some of the speculative buying, especially for those that think they need a second, “summer” home. Why do so many people believe real estate prices will continue higher and higher and higher ad infinitum? I just don’t get it.

By far the worst spin I have heard in the markets earlier this morning was all tied to energy prices. Greenspan talked yesterday to calm the energy markets and said rising oil inventories may “damp the current price frenzy.” When the stock and bond markets opened this morning, the newswires were buzzing that stocks were moving higher with oil coming down in price, and also attributed the rise in bond prices (lower interest rates) to lower oil. At the open, energy prices were lower with crude down about fifty cents to $55.50 and unleaded gasoline down about three cents to $1.65 in anticipation of the Energy Department’s release of new inventory data with expectations of increased inventories. Crude posted a gain of 2.4 million barrels and this was the eighth consecutive weekly increase, but the market doesn’t care! Traders were more focused on unleaded gasoline inventories declining by 2.1% while they question whether or not we have the refining capacity to produce enough for the driving season. AAA says gasoline rose to a record $2.228 a gallon yesterday, but it hasn’t deterred motorists, since demand is running 2% ahead of last year.

In a nutshell, both Alan Greenspan and the market spin got it wrong today. They tried to spin the energy data as being bearish, but oil moved higher anyway and is now flattening out for the day. In the big picture energy prices didn’t really change much, but stocks and bonds remain higher nonetheless. So where is all this money coming from to be buying the U.S. dollar, stocks and bonds? The first answer is pretty simple, so I won’t spend a lot of time saying the economies of Europe and Japan appear to be slowing at a faster rate than here in the USA.

more...

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[54anickel]

2. Heh-heh, great wrap-up again Ozy! eom

[54anickel]

3. China: U.S. Should Fix Own Economic Woes

http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/business/business-china-usa-currency.html?

BEIJING (Reuters) - China, answering a U.S. threat to slap tariffs on Chinese goods unless Beijing revalues its yuan currency, on Thursday urged the United States to tackle its own economic imbalances.

``We have noticed that the U.S. trade and budget deficits have continuously expanded in recent years,'' said Foreign Ministry spokesman Qin Gang.

``However, the United States should look for the reason from itself so as to adjust the unbalanced sectors in its economy,'' Qin told a regular news briefing.

The comments came a day after the U.S. Senate voted in favor of threatening China with tariffs on its exports to the United States unless it changed its fixed-currency policy, which keeps the yuan (CNY-CFXS) pegged near 8.28 to the dollar.

bit more...

[54anickel]

4. Real estate’s dirty little secret

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/7405199/

snip>

A recent survey of 500 appraisers by the October Research Group, a provider of news and information to the real estate services industry, found that 55 percent of them personally feel pressured by sellers, agents, and even lenders to inflate home values by 10 percent. And one-third of the appraisers surveyed said they fear losing business if they don’t comply.

Jonathan Miller, CEO of Miller Samuel, an appraisal company in Manhattan, said he thinks 75 percent of appraisals are inflated. And Miller thinks honest appraisers are leaving the business as a result.

Congress recently introduced a bill to curb the appraiser issue.

The Ney-Kanjorski bill would prohibit agents and other outsiders from pressuring appraisers through coercion, bribes or extortion. It would also force a physical inspection for higher-cost loans instead of just using computer appraisal software, which can be manipulated, and it would force a second appraisal of a property that has risen in value over the previous six months.

However, Miller says the proposed bill does not address structural problems in the appraisal business, such as the fact that many lending institutions that hire appraisers profit from the outcome.

The wall is eroding between the loan sales department and quality control, Miller contends, and no one is worried about potential defaults if the housing market takes a breather.

more...

[54anickel]

5. Fear of Political Unrest Roils Mexican Markets

Why do I sense the hand of BeelzeBush and friends in this? Perhaps it's the article from earlier in the week about which developing countries are attempting to protect their oil resources from being pillaged. :shrug:


http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-mexecon7apr07,1,372547.story?coll=la-headlines-business

MEXICO CITY — The possible ouster of a leading contender from the 2006 Mexican presidential race is rattling financial markets here, with investors wary of a full-blown crisis that could derail a promising economic recovery.

Fear of political turmoil has sent Mexico's stock market tumbling 12% in recent weeks, as Mexico's Congress prepared for a crucial vote today. Legislators are expected to strip popular Mexico City Mayor Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador of his official immunity from prosecution — a privilege granted to high-level elected officials in Mexico — so that he would have to stand trial in a land dispute.

He faces prison and under Mexican law could be deemed ineligible to run for the presidency while his case winds through the legal system. That could block him from the ballot even if he is ultimately cleared.

A feisty populist who leads all would-be presidential hopefuls in opinion polls, Lopez Obrador has won the admiration of millions of average Mexicans for spending on anti-poverty programs as well as for his criticism of free-market economic policies that have failed to solve Mexico's employment woes.

But those leftist leanings have alarmed many of Mexico's business and political elite, whom Lopez Obrador blames for the legal tangle that could trip up his aspirations for higher office.

more...

[aneerkoinos]

20. Condie, Satan?

No argument, really.

You sense right, Condie telling Fox&co that US really really really REALLY don't wan't a socialist leader south of border, and this time Fox&co don't see much reason to disagree with the Condieland, how surprizing is that?

Only problem, Mexican people are not likely to give up their democracy without a strugge...

[aneerkoinos]

35. More:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x1376074

[54anickel]

6. If You Ask Small-Business Owners, the Economy Is Improving (Suckers?)

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/04/07/business/07sbiz.html

snip>

"The recovery is picking up speed," Mr. Farnsworth said. "I believe the economy is better than people think it is, especially here in South Florida."

If it is, then small and midsize companies like his are playing an important role. Though job creation in the United States has recently been weaker than expected, and higher oil prices and rising interest rates are raising red flags, the economy is continuing to expand strongly.

One reason is the growing optimism of small businesses, backed up by hiring and investment spending.

snip>

Small businesses are also getting a boost in their expansion plans from a loosening of the purse strings over the past few months by venture-capital firms, banks and other providers of capital. "I think right now there's an awful lot of money on the sidelines looking to be deployed," said Neal Verfuerth, founder and president of Orion Energy Systems, a maker of energy-efficient lighting systems in Plymouth, Wis. Orion Energy is now entering its fifth round of private financing in four years, he said, and expects to raise $10 million, double its previous record of $4.8 million in late 2004. He says he is already making preliminary plans for an initial public offering.

more...

[ZR2]

21. I know our company here is west central Florida

Has increased the number of employees by almost 20% in the last 6 months.

[54anickel]

7. India's dollar reserves a mixed blessing

http://www.financialexpress.com/latest_full_story.php?content_id=87290

NEW DELHI, APRIL 7: The World Bank in its 2005 Global Development Finance Report has warned that those countries who are swimming in dollar reserves may face a harrowing time in the near future as the United States' currency weakens.

This has set off warning bells in India as it regards its reserves with pride and generally measures its performance year-on-year with how healthy these are. Indian markets actually went through the 1990s in a pall of gloom as its foreign reserves fell!

Foreign reserves held in developing countries stand at $378bn in 2004, according to the Bank. India's forex reserves stood at $140 bn by March 25, 2005, up from $30 billion in 1998.

The reason given is that a weakening dollar, due to the huge current accounts deficit chalked up by the United States, will drastically cut the value of these holdings by the poor countries. This in turn will unleash a plethora of reactions that may see the world economies affected badly. As the dollar weakens, the Indian rupee would not be worth what it was at the start of the year. Also, with growth slated to be pegged back due to high oil prices, India has seen its Prime Minister Manmohan Singh saying growth may not cross the 7% mark, though the Bank said 8% is a possibility. The Bank has pegged the growth of world economy at 3.1% in 2005.

more...

[UpInArms]

8. It's MaeveDay! Here are the employment numbers:

Today's Reports:

Apr 7	8:30 AM	Initial Claims	04/02	-	325K	330K	350K	-	
Apr 7	10:00 AM	Wholesale Inventories	Feb	-	0.9%	0.7%	1.1%	-	
Apr 7	3:00 PM	Consumer Credit	Feb	-	$8.0B	$7.5B	$11.5B	-

8:30am 04/07/05 U.S. 4-WEEK AVG. CONTINUING CLAIMS AT 4-YEAR LOW

8:30am 04/07/05 U.S. CONTINUING JOBLESS CLAIMS RISE 90,000 TO 2.69 ML

8:30am 04/07/05 U.S. 4-WEEK AVG INITIAL CLAIMS FLAT AT 336,500

8:30am 04/07/05 U.S. INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS FALL 19,000 TO 334,000

[UpInArms]

24. Wholesale Inventories Report

10:00am 04/07/05 U.S. FEB. WHOLESALE INVENTORY-SALES RATIO UP TO 1.18

10:00am 04/07/05 U.S. FEB. WHOLESALE SALES FALL 0.4%, MOST IN 2 YEARS

10:00am 04/07/05 U.S. FEB. WHOLESALE INVENTORIES UP 0.6% V 0.8% EXPECTED

[UpInArms]

26. U.S. wholesale inventories rise 0.6% - biggest sales drop in 2 years

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B1B2FCF54%2DA981%2D4E3C%2D96BD%2DF2E080BDD071%7D&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. wholesalers built up their inventories in February as sales declined at the fastest rate in nearly two years, the Commerce Department reported Thursday.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, inventories increased in value by 0.6% in February, while sales fell 0.4%, marking the biggest drop since April 2003.

The inventory-to-sales ratio rose to 1.18 from 1.17, indicating inventories still remain tight. Read the full report.

Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had been expecting February's inventories to rise about 0.8%. See Economic Calendar.

Inventories had increased 1% in January.

The wholesale data rarely move financial markets, primarily because the figures are so outdated. They are of primary interest to economists filling in gaps in the data for their models tracking gross domestic product.

<snip>

Wholesale inventories are up 11.1% in the past 12 months, with wholesale sales rising 10.6%. The data are not adjusted for price changes.

In February, wholesale sales of durable goods fell 0.5%, including a 4.7% decline in electrical equipment sales -- the biggest decline in nearly four years. Automotive sales increased 2.6%. Metals sales fell 1.4% after growing 31.6% in the past year.

...more...

[UpInArms]

56. US Feb. consumer credit rises $5.5 billion

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38449.6254405324-833957617&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. consumer credit rose 3.1%, or $5.5 billion in February, the Federal Reserve reported Thursday. The increase in consumer credit in January, meanwhile, was revised up slightly to $11.7 billion, the Fed said. Credit card debt increased 6.1% in February, while nonrevolving credit, such as auto loans, increased 1.3%. The data do not include home mortgages.

3:00pm 04/07/05 US FEB. CONSUMER CREDIT RISES 3.1% ANNUAL RATE

3:00pm 04/07/05 US FEB. CONSUMER CREDIT RISES $5.5 BILLION

[UpInArms]

9. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 84.39 Change -0.29 (-0.34%)

Dollar is Quiet, Too Quiet

http://www.dailyfx.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=629&Itemid=39

EUR/USD - Euro and dollar continue to size up each other's defenses as the price action becomes reminiscent of trench warfare. As the pair continues to drift in the "no-man's" land, advancing euro longs will encounter a minor resistance at 1.2908, a 10-day SMA, with further line of defense established at 1.2971, an intermediate resistance created by the Mar 25-31 consolidation range high.

A major resistance can be seen at 1.3017 a 61.8 Fib of the 1.2730-1.3482 euro rally. If the dollar bulls resume their advance, euro longs can rely on 1.2819, a Feb 7-10 consolidation high for a minor support. An intermediate support at 1.2757, Nov 5 spike low, currently defends the major support at 1.2729, a 2005 low and a the last line of defense before the dollar can reach 1.2490 level, a 61.8 Fib of the 1.1760-1.3667 euro rally. A break in the 1.2490 level might the dollar bulls push their way to 1.2000 figure, a summer range low. Oscillators remain mixed, with Stochastic continuing to be extremely oversold at 8.98 on the daily chart and is traveling toward the overbought line at 57.8 on the dealer (4HR) chart. RSI at 30.83 continues to skim the oversold level on the daily and is neutral at 48.44 on the 4-hour chart. MACD remains below the zero line on the daily chart and followed through with a bullish crossover below the zero line on the dealer (4HR) chart.

<snip>

USD/JPY - Yen continues to drift sideways within an upward sloping channel as the dollar longs managed to stop the yen's countermove. Levels remained virtually intact as the price action remains subdued with advancing dollar longs continuing to encounter minor resistance at 108.85, Apr 5 high, with an intermediate resistance at 109.14 an Oct 11 daily low creating the first round of yen defenses. A major resistance at 109.14 an Oct 11 daily low, remains a key level for the dollar as a breach above may see the pair retest the offers around the 111.48, a start of the Nov-Dec yen rally. Dollar longs continue to rely on 108.00, a 5-day SMA for a minor support, with an intermediate support seen at 107.50 a 10-day SMA and a channel's lower boundary. A major support at 106.73, Apr spike low, currently defends the dollar held territory against the counter move by the yen bulls. Indicators are mixed, with Stochastic extremely overbought on daily chart at 92.69 and dipping below the overbought line at 78.10 on the dealer (4HR) chart. RSI remains above the overbought line on the daily at 77.81 and is dipping below the overbought line at 59.99 on the 4-hour chart. MACD continues to travel above the zero line on daily chart and is getting ready for a bullish crossover above the zero line on the dealer (4HR) chart.

...more...

[UpInArms]

29. Dollar weakens; focus still on rates

New Greenspan remarks not seen as hawkish

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BEF15742E%2D3A5B%2D4C80%2DB3E4%2DFBFDCF81856B%7D&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The dollar weakened Thursday amid disappointment that Federal Reserve chief Alan Greenspan failed to make hawkish statements on inflation in two public appearances this week.

In early trade the euro stood at $1.2904, up 0.35 on the session. The dollar fell 0.4% to 108.30 yen.

There was scant reaction to widely-expected news that the Bank of England left rates unchanged at 4.75% and the European Central Bank kept its rates steady at 2%.

Dollar proponents have been hoping that the Fed will abandon its current series of incremental quarter-point rate hikes and adopt a bolder program of half-point rises ever since the central bank issued unusually hawkish comments about inflation two weeks ago. The Fed funds target rate is 2.75%.

However, in appearances this week before an oil industry group and the Senate Banking Committee, Greenspan "was about as neutral as he could be," according to Bill Hoerter, senior foreign-exchange dealer at Alaron FX.

<snip>

A rumor that Russia has increased its portion of currency reserves in euro to 20% from 10% appears to have helped the euro, he said.

...more...

[UpInArms]

32. Nations with big dollar reserves vulnerable, warns World Bank

http://www.earthtimes.org/articles/show/2320.html

Washington: The World Bank released their annual Global Development Finance report for 2005, which warned that the World economy has peaked and will now slow down to 3.1 percent in 2005. Factors leading to this slowdown included last year’s increases in the US interest rate, fiscal tightening and a wider deficit than expected.

The report also projected a robust growth of as much as 5.7 percent in developing economies such as China and India throughout 2005.

The current peak in global economy was a result of rapid expansion in these economies combined with consistent growth in the US economy. Future growth in the world economy may be hurt by rising interest rates and a weaker dollar.

Developing economies face some risk from US’ current account deficit of $666bn. The increase in deficit has allowed many developing countries to shore up on huge US dollar reserves. But if the US decides to hike interest rates higher than they expect and if the dollar depreciates lower than expected, China, India and Russia’s economies are likely to be hurt. These countries could suffer large capital losses, in local currency terms, if the dollar suddenly declines.

...more...

Well, Marale, this article was shy about using that 666

[UpInArms]

33. Beware domino effect

http://finance.news.com.au/story/0,10166,12786218-462,00.html

DEVELOPING countries that have amassed large US dollar reserves faced a growing threat of big losses from a sudden decline in the greenback, the World Bank warned yesterday.

In its 2005 Global Development Finance Report, the bank identified the "gravest risk" for emerging markets as a deep and disorderly US dollar decline that would create financial market volatility and push up interest rates.

A US dollar collapse, below what the bank's economists see as its long-term equilibrium level, could also result in "a costly restructuring of world industry that would have to be undone in following years as the US dollar returned to its equilibrium level," the bank said.

Foreign reserves held in developing countries, up $US292billion in 2003, rose a further $US378 billion ($491 billion) last year, the bank said. Asia, and particularly China, accounted for much of this accumulation, but 101 of 132 developing countries increased their reserves last year.

"A sharp depreciation of the US dollar could result in large capital losses in local currency terms for developing countries with substantial US dollar reserves," the bank said.

...more...

[MARALE]

48. I see that...

:tinfoilhat:

I think they are getting out all the bad news about the dollar before Paulie comes on board.

I think that these countries know this, I think they are getting out of the dollar already. They are going to hold our deficits against us. I am really worried about this, especially using that 666 number...

[spotbird]

54. This will be the last we hear of the US debt from

the World Bank for a while.

[UpInArms]

60. Dollar Retreats Vs Euro

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=8117743

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The dollar weakened against the euro on Thursday, as investors took profits on recent gains and the market began shifting focus to next week's U.S. trade and capital flows data.

"Since the beginning of the week, we've seen that in the absence of any major market-moving data, there has been ongoing position-squaring of dollar long positions," said Ron Simpson, director of currency research at Action Economics in New York.

"People are taking money off the table ahead of next week's (potential) ugliness," he added, referring to U.S. trade data and capital flows figures coming out next week on Monday and Friday respectively.

Economists in a Reuters poll expect the U.S. trade figures to show that the deficit widened to $59 billion in February, from $58.27 billion a month earlier.

Simpson said that the market's attention is starting to shift back to the dollar's structural negatives such as the U.S. current account financing and away from the U.S. interest rate outlook that has contributed to the dollar's strength against a number of currencies for the past couple of weeks.

...more...

[UpInArms]

10. Alcoa quarterly earnings slip to 30 cents/share

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38448.6787185185-833925099&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) - Aluminum giant Alcoa (AA) reported late Wednesday net first-quarter earnings of $260 million, or 30 cents a share, including a 9-cent per-share loss from restructuring and the sale of its Elkem stake. The results are down from $355 million, or 41 cents a share, a year ago. Revenue for the three months ended March 31 totaled $6.3 billion, up 13% from $5.7 billion a year earlier. First-quarter income from continuing operations was $273 million, or 31 cents a share, compared with 39 cents expected by analysts polled by Thomson First Call. Shares of Pittsburgh-based Alcoa closed unchanged ahead of the earnings report at $29.98.

Alcoa's Profit Declines 27% on Costs to Fire Workers

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=apB0N_fGmQWA&refer=us

April 6 (Bloomberg) -- Alcoa Inc., the world's biggest aluminum maker, said first-quarter profit fell 27 percent because of costs to fire workers and sell off a stake in a business.

Net income declined to $260 million, or 30 cents a share, from $355 million, or 41 cents, a year earlier, Pittsburgh-based Alcoa today said in a statement. Revenue climbed almost 13 percent to $6.29 billion from $5.59 billion.

Chief Executive Alain Belda plans to fire 2,000 workers this year after costs surged for caustic soda, fuel and electricity used at refineries and aluminum smelters. The expense of $25 million to fire workers eroded gains from aluminum prices that reached a 10-year high in March as demand in China soared.

Rising costs are forcing Alcoa ``to go back and review everything in a more fundamental way,'' said Lloyd O'Carroll, an analyst for BB&T Capital markets. He has a ``buy'' on Alcoa's stock, which he said he owns.

...more...

[UpInArms]

11. A.M. Best puts AIG ratings under review

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?siteid=mktw&guid=%7B697133E6-7502-4870-A1C5-04621250F771%7D&

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- A.M. Best said Wednesday that it has put all of American International Group's (AIG) ratings under review with negative implications, following the announcement that its CEO was stepping down and that the filing of its 2004 10-K is delayed. The rating agency said that it has also assigned AIG's insurance subsidiaries issuer credit ratings.

[Merlin]

12. Justice DeLayed is Justice Destroyed !

Great cartoon.

[UpInArms]

13. Trust problem could force Fannie to find billions

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=bondsNews&storyID=8107319

federal regulator on Wednesday said problems with the way the mortgage giant treated securities-issuing trusts could have a significant impact on the amount of the capital it must hold.

Fannie Mae could in fact be forced to find as much as $30 billion in capital if regulators decide the company wrongly kept more than $1 trillion in mortgages off its balance sheet, according to analysts and sources close to a U.S. probe of Fannie's accounting.

"That's the worst scenario," said one source with knowledge of the investigation.

<snip>

Under Financial Accounting Standard 140, Fannie Mae has treated those trusts as "qualifying special purpose entities," which kept the trusts' assets and liabilities off the balance sheet.

<snip>

Fannie is required by law to maintain capital equal to 2.5 percent of the mortgage-backed securities and other assets that appear on its balance sheet. For mortgage-backed securities that do not appear on the balance sheet, Fannie must maintain only 0.45 percent.

...more...

[UpInArms]

14. Latest job cuts and plant closings could cost Steelcase $540,000

http://www.woodtv.com/Global/story.asp?S=3176034&nav=0RceYMOo

(Grand Rapids, April 6, 2005, 3:57 p.m.) Steelcase could be asked to give back more than $540,000 in tax breaks when it closes three Grand Rapids plants in the next few years.

The city could ask the office furniture maker to give back property tax credits given as an incentive for Steelcase to expand.

The company announced the closings last week, which will occur over the next two years and will force about 600 people out of work.

...more...

[UpInArms]

15. here's the poop on the unemployment claims

U.S. jobless claims fall to 334,000

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - First-time claims for state unemployment benefits fell by 19,000 to 334,000 in the week ending April 2, the Labor Department said Thursday.

The prior week's claims were revised up to 353,000 from 350,000 previously.

Economists surveyed by MarketWatch were expecting a decline to about 330,000. See Economic Calendar.

The four-week average of new claims, which smoothes out distortions caused by weather, holidays or other one-time events, was nearly unchanged at 336,500. Read the full report.

After dipping to 307,250 in February, the four-week average of new claims is now back up to the levels that prevailed for most of the last year, between 330,000 and 350,000, consistent with monthly payroll growth of about 200,000.

<snip>

The Federal Reserve had been focused on the weak labor market for much of the past four years. But recent comments from Fed officials indicate that they are satisfied with the improvements in job growth and are now focused primarily on inflationary signals.

...more...

[UpInArms]

16. Topps 1Q earns decline to $451,000 vs. $2.9M

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38449.3733425463-833945905&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Topps Co. (TOPP) Thursday reported fourth-quarter earnings of $451,000, or a penny per share, down from its year-ago profit of $2.9 million, or 7 cents per share. Sales fell in the three-month period to $68.3 million from $69.6 million a year ago. The New York-based trading card company said the latest results were hurt by weakness in its Entertainment operations, and increased in overhead stemming from higher professional fees. The average estimate of analysts polled by Thomson First Call was for a profit of 4 cents per share in the period. The stock closed Wednesday at $9.31, down 6 cents.

lots of reports from sales will be coming out in the next few days -

[UpInArms]

17. Wal-Mart sees Q1 earnings at low end

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BE9C2CF77%2DC230%2D4BFA%2D9D22%2DBCB2014AD43A%7D&siteid=mktw

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- Wal-Mart Stores Inc. blamed lousy weather for sluggish early spring sales that are raining on first-quarter forecasts and pre-market trading.

The Bentonville, Ark.-based behemoth is now looking at a profit at the low end of earlier projections of a range of 56 cents to 58 cents a share, which would mean 56 cents a share. That would fall a penny below the average estimate of analysts reporting to Thomson First Call.

Shares of Wal-Mart (WMT: news, chart, profile) fell 2.2% in pre-market trading. In trading Wednesday, shares fell 17 cents to $49.50.

"Sales of Easter merchandise were on plan," the company said in a recorded message Thursday. "However, sales of spring seasonal merchandise -- including apparel and lawn-and-garden -- were significantly below plan."

<snip>

"The sales shortfall in March resulted in expenses being higher than planned and the unseasonable weather resulted in gross margin being below plan," the company said.

...more...

Could it be that the Squal-Mart boycott? :popcorn:

[MARALE]

37. I think it may be...

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B70205B53%2D115C%2D489F%2DA1F9%2D5B3995D29882%7D&siteid=mktw&dist=

...
But Target Corp. (TGT: news, chart, profile) brightened its quarterly outlook after delivering an 8.2% gain in same-store sales -- ahead of Wall Street's expectation of a 7.6% gain. The company is now looking at earnings that will come in at the high end of its outlook.

At Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST: news, chart, profile) , same-stores sales also exceeded expectations, coming in higher by 7% versus the 6.1% growth that had been forecast.
...

BuyBlue!!!!

:applause: :woohoo: :applause:

[UpInArms]

40. Wal-Mart downgraded by A.G. Edwards

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38449.4985806597-833953184&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Wal-Mart (WMT) was downgraded by A.G. Edwards to hold from buy due to concerns about the lack of merchandising originality and creativity and higher gas prices. Analyst Robert Buchanan is also worried about the speed of checkouts - Target (TGT) is faster - and expectations of a deceleration in earnings growth. The world's biggest retailer's stock, a component of the Dow industrials, was trading down 1.3% at $48.88. Earlier, the company said fiscal first-quarter earnings would be at the low end of its range of estimates.

[newportdadde]

18. Treasury to fix rates on new EE savings bonds

Red Flag here.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/7384250/

[UpInArms]

19. pre-opening blather

(sort of - briefing.com hasn't updated)

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B8FCC78F1%2D92BA%2D4FFA%2D96C8%2DF97C37C3B7DE%7D&siteid=mktw

Cautious start on tap

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - U.S. stocks were headed for a lower open Thursday morning as a warning from Wal-Mart and downgrade of General Motors overshadowed a better-than-expected profit report from Alcoa.

S&P futures were down 0.60 to 1,188.60 while Nasdaq futures fell 4 to 1,489 and Dow futures lost 10 to 10,512.

There was little reaction to the Labor Department's report that firs-time claims for state unemployment benefits fell by 19,000 to 334,000 in the week ended Apr. 2, slightly less than the decline to about 330,000 expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch.

Further dampening sentiment Thursday was a reversal in crude oil prices, which had trended lower in recent days. The benchmark contract was last up 76 cents at $56.61 a barrel in electronic trading.

"This market continues to focus on oil prices," said Peter Cardillo, chief market analyst and Strategist at S.W. Bach. "A good earnings will most likely cushion the decline, but if oil prices continue their upward march I suspect that at best we're looking at relief rallies from time to time."

May unleaded gasoline futures, meanwhile, ticked higher after the Department of Energy said it expects the market to remain tight through the summer. Prices are expected to average $2.28 a gallon this season, up 38 cents from the average price last summer. See Futures Movers.

The prior week's claims were revised up to 353,000 from 350,000. See Economic Report.

...more...

ino.com

The June NASDAQ 100 was steady to slightly lower overnight and is working on a possible inside day as it consolidates below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1494.37. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last Friday's high crossing at 1508 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June resumes the decline off March's high, weekly support crossing at 1433.06 is a potential downside target. The June NASDAQ 100 was down 1.00 pts. at 1492 as of 5:53 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to lower opening by the NASDAQ composite index later this morning.

The June S&P 500 index was higher overnight as it extends this week's short covering rebound and is breaking out above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1188.02. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last Friday's high crossing at 1195.55 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below January's low crossing at 1170 would open the door for a possible test of weekly support crossing at 1163.50. The June S&P 500 Index was up 0.90 pts. at 1190.30 as of 5:54 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins later this morning.

[RawMaterials]

22. 10:00 Market Update and Blather

Dow 10492.53 +6.51 (+0.06%)
Nasdaq 2002.27 +3.13 (+0.16%)
S&P 500 1185.12 +1.05 (+0.09%)
10-Yr Bond 4.420% -0.16

NYSE Volume 266,900,000
Nasdaq Volume 246,152,000



10:02AM: FTSE...4966.90...+19.50...+0.4%. DAX...4373.19...-5.99...-0.1%.

10:02AM: Nikkei...11810.99...-16.17...-0.1%. Hang Seng...13602.35...+40.09...+0.3%.

10:00AM: Major indices still struggle to gain traction, as sector leadership remains mixed... Energy (+0.7%) has paced the way higher amid rising oil prices while Materials (+0.4%) has benefited from Alcoa's strong quarterly results and weakness in the greenback... Software has posted modest gains amid strong follow through in Autodesk (ADSK 32.72 +0.65). offsetting modest weakness in the Disk Drive space...

Health Care (-0.5%), however, has been the most influential leader to the downside following the FDA's latest actions against Pfizer while Retail (-0.9%) has been under pressure following mixed March comps... NYSE Adv/Dec 1077/1071, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1141/1168

9:40AM: Market opens with a tinge of caution as investors weigh a slew of mixed corporate news with rising oil prices... Dell (DELL 38.01 -0.37) has reaffirmed prior Q1 guidance and Alcoa (AA 31.22 +1.24) posted better than expected Q1 results, but Pfizer (PFE 25.85 -1.01) has been asked by the FDA to remove Bextra from the market and Wal-Mart (WMT 48.76 -0.74) now sees Q1 earnings at the low end of previous guidance of $0.56-0.58... A 1.3% surge in crude oil futures ($56.59/bbl +$0.74) has also stalled more aggressive buying interest...

At 10:00 ET, Feb Wholesale Inventories (consensus +0.7%) will be released...

[RawMaterials]

23. Copper Trades Close to Record High in London on Supply Concerns

April 7 (Bloomberg) -- Copper was little changed close to a record high in London on investors' concern that demand in China, the world's biggest consumer of the metal, may exceed supply this year, further draining dwindling stockpiles.

Global copper stockpiles monitored from London, Shanghai and New York have declined 79 percent this year, according to Bloomberg calculations. Copper futures in Shanghai today rose to a record for a second consecutive day, on investors' expectations mining companies won't be able to boost output fast enough.

``The London Metal Exchange followed that obviously,'' said Maqsood Ahmed, an analyst at Calyon Financial in London.

Copper for delivery in three months rose $5, or 0.2 percent, to $3,290 a metric ton on the LME at 10:28 a.m. The contract has gained 14 percent in the past year, rising to a record $3,308 a ton on March 31

snip..

Stockpiles

This week's speculation on the bureau's possible purchase of 10,000 tons came after stockpiles on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 24 percent last week to 16,327 tons, the lowest in more than seven years.

Inventories of the metal at warehouses monitored by the LME rose for a third day, up 450 tons, or 1 percent, to 46,625 tons, the exchange said. Gains were reported in Vlissingen, Netherlands, and Long Beach, U.S. stockpiles are still 74 percent lower than a year ago

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000086&sid=agdQlrn4Gnyo&refer=news_index

morning everyone, hope everyone is having fun at the casino.
:hi:

[UpInArms]

25. Travelers: The Big Layoff

What will the impending four-digit job losses at Travelers mean for Hartford?

http://hartfordadvocate.com/gbase/News/content?oid=oid:106909

Gallows humor has reigned in corners of the Cityplace building on Asylum Street since January, when MetLife announced it was purchasing Travelers Life & Annuity from Citigroup. One employee at Travelers' retirement plan business, who we'll call Bill, said his coworkers joke about losing their jobs, and wonder aloud how much they could earn as clerks at Blockbuster. When someone takes a vacation day, it's understood the person is interviewing for a position elsewhere.

"They don't need us," said Bill, who asked that his real name not be used because the company ordered workers not to speak to the press. "The reason Metlife bought Travelers is to increase their share of the annuity market. They already have people that do the same thing I do. They need the products, not the people."

Official layoff announcements are coming Friday, Bill said, and some of his coworkers, mostly suburbanites in the stage in their lives when they have young kids, are expecting babies, or are building houses, now must face the possibility of looking for new jobs. But they're fairly young -- from their early 20s to mid-40s -- and they expect to find work in the area. "I'll probably just end up at another insurance company," said Bill, who earns about $40,000 a year.

<snip>

As hundreds of Travelers workers disappear, so will company spending on a multitude of products, from printing and delivery services to business cards and computers -- the bread and butter of small businesses downtown. Once they find new jobs outside of Hartford, workers who already spend their salaries on housing and shopping in the suburbs will spend their lunch money there too, stressing profit margins at downtown restaurants like the Red Plate. Bill said the young parents he works with are unlikely to spend any money in the city if they don't have to. "I don't imagine the majority of the employees will be coming back to Hartford unless they get another job here," he said.

Based on employees' annual pay, Mayor Eddie Perez estimated the layoffs could constitute a "$60 million hit to the economy," (though most of that money is not spent directly in Hartford). Fred V. Carstensen, director of UConn's Connecticut Center for Economic Analysis, said each Travelers layoff will also result in one additional job lost in places like restaurants, real estate offices and shoe stores. That means the Hartford metro region could see as many as 2,400 jobs lost, by unemployment, relocation and other factors, as a result of the MetLife purchase.

...more...

[UpInArms]

27. MBNA taking $785M charge - Company boosts impact of early-retirement progr

MBNA taking $785M charge
Company boosts impact of early-retirement program (read lay-offs)

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B33EEEFC8%2D8955%2D48C6%2DBD29%2D38BAC0BFCAFB%7D&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - MBNA Corp. said in a regulatory filing late Wednesday it will take a larger-than-expected charge of $785 million, or 40 cents a share, mostly for its restructuring plan.

Part of the charge will go toward paying $170 million to terminate a marketing agreement, the company announced.

The $785 million charge will take a bite of 40 cents per share out of first-quarter earnings, due for release April 21.

Keefe Bruyette & Woods analyst Stephen Schulz said the company had projected the charge at $300-$350 million.

<snip>

On Jan. 20, the company said it would trim an estimated 1,000 jobs in a voluntary early-retirement program. See full story.

...more...

[UpInArms]

28. 10:36 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,502.53 +16.51 (+0.16%)
Nasdaq 2,004.22 +5.08 (+0.25%)
S&P 500 1,186.39 +2.32 (+0.20%)
10-Yr Bond 4.406 -0.30 (-0.68%)

NYSE Volume 420,192,000
Nasdaq Volume 370,727,000

10:30AM: More of the same as the market averages continue to trade just above the flat line... Meanwhile, Retail (-0.7%) has been in focus all morning as investors sift through March comps from over 50 retailers... While March this year was especially important, due to an early Easter - which typically accounts for the largest surge in consumer spending between New Year's and Memorial Day - unusually cold weather and rising gasoline prices have weighed on overall results...

Most of the strength has been seen in sellers of teen apparel (i.e. AEOS, ANF, BEBE, HOTT) and Department Stores (i.e. FD, JWN); but disappointing comps from the likes of GPS, MAY, LTD and KSS, to name just a few, coupled with a lowered Q1 forecast from WMT, has invited selling pressure throughout the group... NYSE Adv/Dec 1392/1389, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1257/1361

10:00AM: Major indices still struggle to gain traction, as sector leadership remains mixed... Energy (+0.7%) has paced the way higher amid rising oil prices while Materials (+0.4%) has benefited from Alcoa's strong quarterly results and weakness in the greenback... Software has posted modest gains amid strong follow through in Autodesk (ADSK 32.72 +0.65). offsetting modest weakness in the Disk Drive space...

Health Care (-0.5%), however, has been the most influential leader to the downside following the FDA's latest actions against Pfizer while Retail (-0.9%) has been under pressure following mixed March comps... NYSE Adv/Dec 1077/1071, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1141/1168

[UpInArms]

34. 11:10 EST numbers (WHEE!) and blather (cheerleading)

Dow 10,531.46 +45.44 (+0.43%)
Nasdaq 2,011.00 +11.86 (+0.59%)
S&P 500 1,188.90 +4.83 (+0.41%)
10-Yr Bond 4.404 -0.32 (-0.72%)

NYSE Volume 589,405,000
Nasdaq Volume 518,487,000

11:00AM: Market climbs to its best levels of the morning as oil prices fall to session lows... Crude oil futures ($55.70/bbl -$0.15), which opened higher for the first time in four sessions on worries of inadequate refining capacity and the growing demand for gasoline, have since fallen below $56/bbl, amid an unexpected rise in Natural Gas Inventories... Eased concerns that higher energy costs will cut into corporate profits has also helped Treasurys inch to their best levels of the day, as yields on the 10-year note (+4/32) have fallen to 4.40%... NYSE Adv/Dec 1671/1216, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1392/1323

[RawMaterials]

30. Bank of England holds rates at 4.75 per cent

The Bank of England on Thursday sat on its hands for the eighth month in a row as its kept interest rates at 4.75 per cent in the face of sluggish private consumption and a weak manufacturing sector.

snip..

Output by British factories unexpectedly fell 0.5 per cent between January and February, dragging down the underlying three-monthly growth rate from 0.6 per cent to 0.4 pr cent, official data showed.

Philip Shaw at Investec, who thinks that interest rates have peaked in the current cycle, said there were signs that downside risks to economic growth that the MPC identified in its last inflation report were materialising.

“High street activity is very weak at the moment, as seen in official retail sales numbers but also in statements by individual retailers,” he said. Another drag on the economy came from stuttering growth in Europe, Britain’s main market

snip..

However, the investment bank argues that another rate rise is warranted given the build-up of inflation pressures in the economy through higher wages, especially in the services sector, which is growing more strongly than the smaller industrial sector.

The UK repo rates has stood at 4.75 per cent since August 2004, which marked the end of a 150 basis points tightening spell aimed at slowing down the then buoyant housing market.







http://news.ft.com/cms/s/d971e984-a746-11d9-9744-00000e2511c8.html

[UpInArms]

31. DOE sees oil prices staying above $50 (through 2006)

High oil prices seen lifting jet fuel, gasoline prices

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B16989CC4%2D13BF%2D4B68%2DB6DD%2D1CAF80529FB6%7D&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Oil prices are expected to remain above $50 a barrel throughout 2005 and 2006, according to a forecast released Thursday by the statistical arm of the Energy Department.

Prices "are likely to be sensitive to any incremental oil market tightness," the Energy Information Administration said in its short-term outlook.

Several factors -- political unrest in countries with the largest reserves of oil, little or no growth in supplies from non-Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, and thinning levels of spare production capacity worldwide -- will contribute to sustained higher prices, the forecast said.

Demand for petroleum in the U.S. is expected to average 20.9 million barrels a day in 2005, up 1.7% from 2004 levels, the agency said.

When oil prices rise, the impact can be felt throughout the economy, most notably by higher prices of gasoline at the pump.

<snip>

Additionally, as the price of oil goes up it raises the cost of imports to the U.S., which lifts the trade deficit

...more...

[UpInArms]

36. Citigroup cuts ratings on GM, Ford

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B886237FC%2DFF29%2D4947%2DAEC2%2D5F287035604E%7D&siteid=mktw

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) - Citigroup Smith Barney on Thursday told investors to sell shares of General Motors while blaming the struggling auto giant for the brokerage firm's move to reduce its rating on Ford Motor.

Analyst John Rogers slashed his price target on GM stock (GM: news, chart, profile) to $24 a share from $32. Investors, apparently having grown immune to the constant slew of bad news, pushed shares up 1.8% to $30.40 in early trading.

"Our sell rating reflects increased risk of a dividend cut in front of a painful but necessary restructuring that could consume up to $4 billion in cash," Rogers said in a note to clients.

Earlier this week, GM said CEO Rick Wagoner would take charge of U.S. operations, which will result in a restructuring that will pressure the stock through 2007, according to Rogers. See full story.

He also pointed out that the potential credit rating downgrade that Wall Street seems to be bracing for poses further downside risk.

...more...

Immune to "bad news"?????

[ozymandius]

45. Maybe buyers think GM stock has bottomed out, now 'on sale'.

Personally, I am curious to see how 'on sale' GM stock will be after the unveiling of their new 2006 line of 12-17 mpg trucks and SUVs

[UpInArms]

38. 12:08 EST numbers and blather (strong labor market?)

Dow 10,523.12 +37.10 (+0.35%)
Nasdaq 2,008.36 +9.22 (+0.46%)
S&P 500 1,187.98 +3.91 (+0.33%)
10-Yr Bond 4.411 -0.25 (-0.56%)

NYSE Volume 784,999,000
Nasdaq Volume 700,704,000

falling oil prices, lower bond yields and decent economic offset mixed corporate news and March comps... Crude oil futures ($55.70/bbl -$0.15), albeit only modestly lower, has somewhat eased concerns about inflation and pressure on corporate profits... A more than 1.0% rise in the commodity early on, amid worries that increasing output from US refineries is failing to boost gasoline supplies, had weighed on sentiment; but a pullback in oil has help keep some sellers on the sidelines...

Treasurys, in turn, have inched higher, as yields on the 10-year note (+4/32) have fallen to 4.40%... A 19K decline in jobless claims to 334K (consensus 330K), still signaling a strong labor market, has also provided a floor of buying support in the wake of Alcoa's (AA) solid Q1 results and Dell's (DELL) encouraging outlook... However, gains have been minimized amid weakness in blue chips like Pfizer (PFE 26.45 -0.41) and Wal-Mart (WMT 48.87 -0.63)...

The FDA has asked PFE to withdraw Bextra and include the strongest safety warning on Celebrex while WMT, amid mixed same-store sales figures for March, now sees Q1 earnings at the low end of previous guidance of $0.56-0.58... Sellers of teen apparel (i.e. AEOS, ANF, BEBE, HOTT) and Department Stores (i.e. FD, JWN) have been strong, but disappointing comps from GPS, MAY, LTD and KSS, have invited more sellers than buyers within the Retail group... Pacing the way to the upside has been Materials (+0.6%), benefiting from Alcoa's better than expected Q1 earnings and weakness in the dollar...

[UpInArms]

46. 12:38 EST numbers (soaring higher) and blather (cheerleading)

Dow 10,539.37 +53.35 (+0.51%)
Nasdaq 2,011.28 +12.14 (+0.61%)
S&P 500 1,189.88 +5.81 (+0.49%)
10-Yr Bond 4.414 -0.22 (-0.50%)

NYSE Volume 883,320,000
Nasdaq Volume 800,404,000

12:30PM: Buyers remain in control of the action, albeit amid lackluster volume, as market internals still hold a positive bias... Advancers on the NYSE hold a 19 to 11 advantage over decliners while advancing issues on the Nasdaq outpace declining issues by a 4 to 3 margin... The ratio of up to down volumes, however, reflects a more bullish tone on both the Big Board and the Composite... Meanwhile, the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq have all found initial support above key technicals and continue to fluctuate around resistance near levels of 10505, 1186 and 2010, respectively...NYSE Adv/Dec 1926/1143, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1646/1234

[UpInArms]

39. Treasurys tick higher; data is light

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/print_story.asp?print=1&guid={75A0A3F3-8C35-49A4-BA20-EAD564A3BF0E}&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - Treasurys reversed course to tick slightly higher Thursday as the market focused on technical factors, given the light flow of economic reports and dearth of inflation indications this week.

The light buying spree pushed the yield on the benchmark 10-year bond down to 4.41%, contrasting with 4.44% in late trade Wednesday.

In early trade Treasury prices softened slightly after a smaller-than-expected decline in initial weekly jobless claims was widely seen as indicating the labor market is enjoying modest strength.

Bond proponents had hoped for indications of a weak labor market to help convince the Fed to back off its current program of incremental, quarter-point rate hikes.

First-time claims for state unemployment benefits fell by 19,000 to 334,000. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch were expecting a decline to about 330,000.

...more...

[UpInArms]

44. Fed's Santomero favors gradual monetary policy approach

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38449.5211855787-833954012&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Federal Reserve policymakers should move "in a slow and cautious manner" given the uncertainty surrounding the state of the economy and the imperfect understanding of current economic conditions, said Anthony Santomero, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. Moving at a slow pace will not allow policymakers to overshoot their goal and give them time to assess the effects of their actions, Santomero said in a speech prepared for delivery to the National Economics Club on Thursday. Santomero is a voting member of the FOMC this year. Although he cautioned that his remarks were "philosophical," Fed watchers will likely interpret them as supporting the Fed's current gradual quarter percentage point rate hikes over more aggressive tightening.

[UpInArms]

53. Santomero: the gift that keeps on giving

2:04pm 04/07/05 SANTOMERO: U.S. LABOR MARKET IMPROVING AT MODERATE PACE

2:04pm 04/07/05 SANTOMERO: INFLATION RISKS HAVE NOT SHIFTED TO UPSIDE

2:03pm 04/07/05 SANTOMERO: OIL PRICES SLOWING DEMAND, WON'T STOP GROWTH

2:02pm 04/07/05 FED'S SANTOMERO: FED NOT BEHIND THE CURVE ON POLICY

2:03pm 04/07/05 SANTOMERO: U.S. INFLATION 'REASONABLY WELL-CONTAINED'

Fed's Santomero says Fed not behind the curve

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38449.589796794-833956462&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The gradual pace of Fed tightening has not left the Fed behind the curve on inflation, said Anthony Santomero, president of the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank. Speaking to reporters after a speech on Thursday, Santomero said the Fed has to be vigilant against inflation as the U.S. economy moves into the fourth year of its expansion, but it is too early to say that inflationary risks have clearly shifted to the upside. The U.S. labor market is improving at a moderate pace. The spike in oil prices has slowed consumer spending, but has not altered his view for robust economic growth in 2005.

(added link on edit)

[UpInArms]

41. SnowJob blows:

12:16pm 04/07/05 SNOW SAYS TRADE DEFICIT WITH CHINA TOO LARGE

12:16pm 04/07/05 SNOW: CHINA SHOULD ALLOW MARKET TO VALUE CURRENCY

[UpInArms]

43. Snow: China should allow market to value currency

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38449.5189527778-833953957&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- China should allow the free market to set the value of its yuan currency, and end its peg to the dollar, Treasury Secretary John Snow said during a congressional hearing Thursday. Responding to criticism from Sen. Charles Schumer, R-N.Y., Snow said the U.S. trade deficit with China is "far larger than we'd like to see it."

[ozymandius]

47. He's officially insane.

Doesn't he know how he contradicts Bush/Cheney ("deficits don't matter") economic policy over the past five years? If China unpegs its currency from the dollar - WalMart's business will suffer. A strong yuan and a weak dollar are not a good mix when we have to import nearly everything - especially that cheap crap on the shelves at WalMart.

[UpInArms]

58. Snow: Diplomacy key to Yuan's peg (time for one of those funny jackets)

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/print_story.asp?print=1&guid={187540FF-1FBB-4DA8-A36E-5D467C4F4153}&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Treasury Secretary John Snow urged lawmakers Thursday to let financial diplomacy take its course in an effort to get China to ease the peg between its currency and the dollar.

Sens. Charles Schumer, a Democrat from New York, and Lindsey Graham, a Republican from South Caroline, introduced an amendment Wednesday to a State Department funding bill that would slap a 27.5% tariff on Chinese imports if China doesn't revalue its currency within 180 days. See full story.

In a move that caught the attention of the White House and top trade lawmakers, the Senate voted overwhelmingly Wednesday to defeat a procedural motion that would have set aside the Schumer-Graham amendment. A final vote on the language was delayed.

Snow, testifying at a Senate Banking Committee hearing on government-sponsored housing enterprises Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, said the U.S. trade deficit with China is "far larger than we'd like to see it," but argued that financial diplomacy with Beijing, not measures like Schumer's and Graham's, will prove effective.

"We're all waiting, Mr. Secretary," Schumer responded.

...more...

SnowJob talking about diplomacy :rofl:

Here's the rest of the story:

Congress weighs China currency action

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/print_story.asp?print=1&guid={8C7249B4-6D73-4498-BD65-A60A6F52364F}&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The Senate and House were set to separately consider legislation this week that would put limits on Chinese imports unless Beijing allows its currency to become more flexible.

Sens. Charles Schumer, D-N.Y., and Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., introduced an amendment Wednesday to a State Department appropriations bill that would slap a 27.5% tariff on Chinese imports if China doesn't revalue its currency within 180 days.

Lawmakers have expressed growing frustration over China's refusal to weaken the yuan's peg to the dollar. They contend that the tie has left the yuan significantly undervalued, putting U.S. manufacturers and workers at a disadvantage and contributing to the sharp rise in China's trade surplus with the United States.

"We think there is no more broad-based and serious violation of the spirit and rules of international trade than a purposefully undervalued currency," Schumer said in a statement. "When those conditions are violated, the system must respond or else the actions of one nation will upset the whole global balance."

...more...

Can anyone say "Trade War"?

It's not nice to mess with your banker :evilgrin:

Squal-Mart's gonna have a fit :evilgrin:

[UpInArms]

42. Commentary: M&A spike points to market top

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B86D34AFA%2D87E7%2D4163%2DA3DF%2DED787E25E0F1%7D&siteid=mktw

KAHULUI, Hawaii (MarketWatch) -- I am a contrarian, pure and simple. In my work, I closely track the sentiment indicators because the crowd is usually wrong -- especially at extreme points.

Lately, I've noticed that activity in the mergers and acquisitions arena has picked up in a significant way. In the past, this occurrence was often seen at market tops. More specifically, the stock market.

If you were the chief executive of a major corporation, when would you acquire other companies to expand? In theory, the opportune time would be when the economy is growing and future prospects are improving. At that juncture, everything would be coming together all at once.

After all, your enterprise is experiencing a pickup in business. And the company coffers are awash in cash. There's no better way to grow quickly by getting larger through buyouts to exploit the current environment.

Well, I must respectfully disagree with the concept of purchasing entities in an economic boom. When times are good, the demand for products and services goes up. That includes other corporations. The price tags for these companies head higher, too. In so many words, you have to fork over premium prices for their profit growth.

To be successful in business, just like the stock market, we want to buy low and sell high. You surely won't meet this objective when prices are climbing upwards in rapid fashion. Hence, the finest time to make offers for other corporations is in an economic slowdown -- a recession or even a depression. No kidding. At these moments, one will be acquiring at discounted prices. More accurately, at fire-sale prices.

Don't take my word. Check the annals of Wall Street. The pages are filled with tragic tales of deals gone wrong. In fact, most mergers don't turn out productively. Naturally, some of them do. Yet the odds remain poor.

...more...

[UpInArms]

49. Maine and Pennsylvania mill closures

Louisiana-Pacific to close Maine OSB mill on April 15

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38449.5280387037-833954340&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Louisiana-Pacific Corporation (LPX) said Thursday that it will permanently close operations at its Woodland, Maine, OSB mill on April 15. The Nashville, Tenn.-based company said the closure is due to high long-term costs associated with significant capital investment required to keep the mill competitive and meet upcoming MACT requirements.

Sonoco won't reopen Pa plant following March fire

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38449.5296354745-833954417&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Sonoco Products (SON) said Thursday that it will not reopen its Downingtown, Pa. recycled-paperboard mill after a fire on March 20 that caused $500,000 in damage. The plant employed 71 people. Sonoco said that it will provide outplacement assistance to the Downington workers.

[ozymandius]

50. 1:01 numbers and blather

 Market Summary

Dow
10,537.23
+51.21
(+0.49%)

Nasdaq
2,012.90
+13.76
(+0.69%)

S&P 500
1,189.71
+5.64
(+0.48%)

10-Yr Bond
4.412
-0.24
(-0.54%)

NYSE Volume
976,892,000

Nasdaq Volume
886,135,00

12:30PM: Buyers remain in control of the action, albeit amid lackluster volume, as market internals still hold a positive bias... Advancers on the NYSE hold a 19 to 11 advantage over decliners while advancing issues on the Nasdaq outpace declining issues by a 4 to 3 margin... The ratio of up to down volumes, however, reflects a more bullish tone on both the Big Board and the Composite... Meanwhile, the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq have all found initial support above key technicals and continue to fluctuate around resistance near levels of 10505, 1186 and 2010, respectively...NYSE Adv/Dec 1926/1143, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1646/1234

We are scary busy at work right now. A new show open in a week and we are nose to the ground getting everything done. Back when I can...

Ozy :hi:

[UpInArms]

51. updating blather

1:00PM: Market spikes to new session highs as aggressive selling pressure in oil pushes the commodity to new lows... Crude oil futures, which have been driven by demand fundamentals and refining capacity capabilities, have recently fallen more than 2.0% to $54.40/bbl (-$1.45), amid signs that refiners will increase operating rates in order to boost gasoline stockpiles... Refineries, as of last week, have been operating at 93.7% capacity, as they seasonally switch over from heating oil production to gasoline production...XOI -0.2, NYSE Adv/Dec 2078/1040, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1802/1102

Good luck with the show, Ozy! So glad that you are enjoying your work :hi:

[UpInArms]

52. 2:05 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,520.98 +34.96 (+0.33%)
Nasdaq 2,009.44 +10.30 (+0.52%)
S&P 500 1,186.85 +2.78 (+0.23%)
10-Yr Bond 4.472 +0.36 (+0.81%)

NYSE Volume 1,200,687,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,094,081,000

2:00PM: Conviction on the part of buyers continues to weaken, but the indices still maintain modest gains... Some individual stories of note that continue to generate excitement, however, have been Alcoa (AA 31.41 +1.43) and Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY 40.48 +3.74) - two of the Top Five performers on the S&P - following better than expected quarterly results... Last night, Alcoa officially kicked off earnings season, beating analysts' Q1 forecasts by a penny citing strong demand for and pricing gains in aluminum, while BBBY reported Q4 (Feb) EPS of $0.59, beating consensus estimates by $0.03... NYSE Adv/Dec 1890/1287, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1649/1297

1:30PM: Knee-jerk reaction in stocks short-lived, as yields subsequently climb to intra-day highs and send the blue chip indices back to where they were 30 minutes earlier... While the dramatic sell off in oil has lessened apprehension of pressure on discretionary spending, an ensuing sell off in Treasurys has lifted yields on the 10-year note (-10/32) back to around 4.46% and taken some steam out of the recent uptick...

Earlier, benchmark yields temporarily touched 4.39%, a closely-watched technical level on the 10-year; but buyers have been unable to hold yields below 4.42% amid renewed selling interest... NYSE Adv/Dec 2001/1142, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1747/1167

[UpInArms]

55. Crude oil falls as gasoline touches one-week low (Yeah! a ONE WEEK low!)

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B9D343F90%2D72DA%2D4526%2DB23B%2D23B5152C921A%7D&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Crude-oil futures fell sharply Thursday, tracking declines in gasoline and other petroleum products, as fears of dwindling supplies and capacity constraints eased.

Tim Evans, senior energy analyst at IFR Markets, said traders were reevaluating Wednesday's supply data from the Energy Department, which showed a further build in crude and distillate stocks and a sharp increase in refinery production.

"We've had an uptrend in crude stocks for six months, and there comes a point where one barrel of oil really is too many," he said.

The fact that the market was unable to rally in the face of bullish data on gasoline stocks "is an indication that it's not a bull market any more and a wakeup call to the fact that we have seen the peak and it's time to take profits."

The DoE data showed gasoline inventories fell 2.1 million barrels to 212.3 million barrels, although they remain above the average range.

...more...

[UpInArms]

57. 3:04 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,551.05 +65.03 (+0.62%)
Nasdaq 2,017.31 +18.17 (+0.91%)
S&P 500 1,191.15 +7.08 (+0.60%)
10-Yr Bond 44.70 +0.34 (+0.77%)

NYSE Volume 1,457,560,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,324,401,000

3:00PM: Indices claw back toward earlier highs, after oil closed near session lows, as buying now remains widespread across most areas... One group recently pushing further into positive territory has been Drug (+0.5%)... While the FDA's demand for Pfizer (PFE 26.76 -0.10) to withdraw its Bextra drug from the market has certainly weighed on pharmaceuticals as a whole, investors have found enough positive news to bid the group higher...

One news item in particular has been Abbott Labs (ABT 48.43 +0.82), which has surged after receiving conditional FDA approval to start clinical trials for its Zomaxx stent... Other notable movers to the upside have been AMGN (+1.2%), LLY (+1.2%), MRK (+1.1%) and SNY (+1.1%)... NYSE Adv/Dec 1993/1227, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1767/1228

2:30PM: Range-bound trading persists as blue chips continue to trail their Nasdaq counterparts... Semiconductor (+1.3%) has shown strong follow through in the wake of an industry report that has shown a 64% year-over-year increase in 2004 chip equipment sales to $37.6 bln... Dell Inc.'s (DELL 38.33 +0.18) reaffirmed Q1 guidance and the doubling of its stock buyback program to $2 bln have also helped strengthen sentiment throughout the technology sector heading into earnings season...

Meanwhile, chipmaker Advanced Micro Devices (AMD 16.00 +0.26) has recently hit a new session high amid reports that Dell may in fact consider using AMD chips in its PCs... NYSE Adv/Dec 1938/1256, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1710/1260

[UpInArms]

59. 3:46 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,541.44 +55.42 (+0.53%)
Nasdaq 2,015.85 +16.71 (+0.84%)
S&P 500 1,190.37 +6.30 (+0.53%)
10-Yr Bond 44.72 +0.36 (+0.81%)

NYSE Volume 1,674,754,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,534,107,000

3:30PM: Stocks continue to hold their own into the close, as investors digest the week's last piece of economic news... At the top of the hour, the Fed reported a rise in Feb Consumer Credit to $5.6 bln, versus forecasts of $7.5 bln and last month's revised $11.6 bln gain; however, since the data are released well after every other consumer spending indicator, the market has paid little attention to it whatsoever... Meanwhile, with no economic data or earnings report to digest tomorrow, investors will arguably see another day of lackluster volume... NYSE Adv/Dec 2039/1198, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1783/1233

[UpInArms]

61. U.S. money fund assets rose to $1.909 trln in latest wk

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38449.6630759722-833958871&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

BOSTON (MarketWatch) - U.S. money-market mutual fund assets rose $13.6 billion to $1.909 trillion in the week ended Wednesday, the Investment Company Institute said Thursday. Assets of retail money-market funds increased $2.84 billion to $823.52 billion, while assets of institutional money-market funds rose $10.76 billion to $1.085 trillion, according to ICI, the fund industry's main trade association.

wonder if those "assets" (aren't they pieces of paper?) have more value than those Treasury Notes (IOUs to the SS Trust Fund)?

[RawMaterials]

62. Closing Numbers and Blather

Dow 10546.32 +60.30 (+0.58%)
Nasdaq 2018.79 +19.65 (+0.98%)
S&P 500 1191.14 +7.07 (+0.60%)
10-Yr Bond 4.472% +0.36

NYSE Volume 1,854,069,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,676,714,000



Close: Blue chips finished higher for the fourth straight day as investors weighed falling oil prices, Dell's upbeat outlook and Alcoa's solid quarter against higher bond yields, Pfizer's Bextra withdrawal, Wal-Mart's shoddy guidance and mixed March comps... A 3.1% sell off in crude oil futures ($54.11/bbl -$1.74), amid signs that refiners will increase operating rates (above 93.7%) in order to boost gasoline stockpiles, mitigated worries about inflation and potential pressure on corporate profits heading into earnings season...

And the further into negative territory the commodity fell, the better the sentiment became for buyers to pick up shares of industry leaders across virtually every sector... However, while aggressive profit taking in oil lessened concerns of pressure on discretionary spending, an ensuing sell off in Treasurys, also assisted by a breakdown in key technical levels (near 4.42% yield on the 10-year) and arguably overbought conditions, lifted yields on the 10-year note (-12/32) to 4.47% and minimized gains in equities...

A 19K decline in jobless claims to 334K (consensus 330K), which initially pushed Treasurys lower following the slight upward revision (to 353K from 350K) to last week's data, still signaled a strong labor market and also provided a floor of buying support... Dell Inc.'s (DELL 38.44 +0.29) reaffirmed Q1 guidance and the doubling of its stock buyback program to $2 bln helped strengthen sentiment throughout technology, helping I.T. (+1.3%) become the best performer among the 10 economic sectors... Also lending support was Semiconductor (+2.0%), after an industry report showed a 64% year-over-year increase in 2004 chip equipment sales to $37.6 bln, while Software, Hardware, Disk Drive and Networking all realized gains in excess of 1.0%...

The Materials (+1.0%) sector was also strong, benefiting from Alcoa's (AA 31.46 +1.48) solid Q1 results... Alcoa - one of the best performers on the S&P today - kicked off Q1 last night with better than expected earnings of $0.40 per share due to a 13% increase in sales and strong demand despite rising aluminum prices... Consumer Discretionary (+0.5%), despite modest weakness in Retail amid mixed March same-store sales, also closed to the upside...

Sellers of teen apparel (i.e. AEOS, ANF, BEBE and HOTT) and Dept. Stores (i.e. FD and JWN) turned in strong monthly comps while Wal-Mart (WMT 48.97 -0.53), which now sees Q1 earnings at the low end of previous guidance of $0.56-0.58, and retailers like GPS, MAY, LTD and KSS with disappointing comps, weren't so fortunate... Health Care (+0.9%), which struggled for much of the session following the FDA's latest actions against Pfizer (PFE 26.66 -0.20) - asking the drug maker to withdraw its Bextra drug and include the strongest safety warning on Celebrex, found strength from other drug stocks...

Two issues of note were Abbott Labs (ABT 48.25 +0.64), which received conditional FDA approval to start clinical trials for its Zomaxx stent, and Biogen Idec (BIIB 36.50 +1.10), which received positive Phase III positive data on its psoriasis treatment... Energy (-0.4%), however, amid a 4% reversal in oil prices, was the only economic sector to finish to the downside... Separately, Feb Wholesale Inventories rose 0.6% (consensus +0.7%), as sales fell 0.4% - the first decline since May 2003... However, since the sales figures say almost nothing about personal consumption, the largely ignored report has no influence on overall market activity...

Another economic report that got little respect was Feb Consumer Credit, which rose $5.6 bln (consensus $7.5 bln), but with every other consumer spending indicator having already been released, it too was ignored...DJTA +0.1, DJUA +0.8, DOT +1.1, Nasdaq 100 +1.3, Russell 2000 +0.5, SOX +2.0, S&P Midcap 400 +0.5, XOI -0.3, NYSE Adv/Dec 1973/1283, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1795/1243