Oil will hit $100 US a barrel by 2010, CIBC World Markets predicts

[cthrumatrix]

Oil will hit $100 US a barrel by 2010, CIBC World Markets predicts
08:18 AM EDT Apr 06

TORONTO (CP) - Growing demand from the developing world and the United States will cause crude oil prices to almost double to $100 US a barrel by 2010, economists at CIBC World Markets suggest.

The report by Jeff Rubin and Peter Buchanan suggests that supply growth will lag consumption, pushing the price ever higher this decade. "While demand forecasts are ratcheting up, those of supply growth are moving in the other direction," the study released Tuesday said.

"Saudi Arabia, traditionally the backstop of global supply, is already experiencing rising water rates in its mother lode Ghawar field, an early indicator of depletion that has already resulted in falling production levels in neighbouring Oman."

The report echoes a prediction last week by American investment firm Goldman Sachs that oil could hit $105 US a barrel.

snip

http://www.cbc.ca/cp/business/050405/b0405144.html

Okay.... so when does the US actually plan on organizing a "alternative energy plan"...????????????

[shoelace414]

1. And the NASDAQ will hit 10,000

[KlatooBNikto]

10. I remember predictions of Dow 30,000. But, this time there is a real basis

to believe that oil will hit $100 a barrel soon. That is because both India and China are growing so fast their needs for fossil fuel is going to outstrip supply.

[cliss]

14. Probably.

I believe oil will hit that price much sooner than 2010. Like June, 2005. (when the driving season starts).

Some things to keep in mind:
a) the Iraqi pipeline has been hit, almost every day. It's down for repairs.
b) the oil refinery in Venezuela is shut down because of no electricity (Hugo?). Won't be up until next week.
c) a Texas refinery is shut down, a few US deaths.
d) anything else?

[Blue Belle]

17. e) Drilling in ANWR hasn't started yet...

"yet" being the operative word here.

[KlatooBNikto]

2. Got news for you.We have an alternative Energy plan.It is called

seize other people's oil.

[megatherium]

9. This is the same plan the oil companies are using:

they buy smaller competitors to get their reserves. Unfortunately, there isn't much left out there, especially oil that can be inexpensively produced. The major oil companies are only succeeding in replacing a fraction of annual production.

Of course, leave to the chimp to start a goddam war to get more oil. What a mess.

[tanyev]

3. By 2010?

At the rate it's going, it might get there by 2006.

[Mnemosyne]

4. By 2010?! It's already $58 as of Monday.

And when I gassed up yesterday pump price had jumped from 2.20 to 2.30 for regular from the a.m.!!

I'm betting $80 barrel by Sept. and $100 by 2006.

Greedy pricks.

[endarkenment]

12. The price will be chaotic

Incomplete information and speculation wil cause huge shifts up and down. The trend will be inevitably upwards as the saudi cheap-oil fields decline. So we might see 100 sooner than 2010, and we might see 50 again too. The fundamentals are obvious at this point: world demand is steadily increasing while world production is not and cannot keep pace.

There is a lot of noise out there that somewhere around 68-70 oil prices will push the world economy into recession, tilting demand and price down a bit. So prices will wobble around the 68-70 mark for a while until population based demand pushes that stability point higher. I think this is the basis for the theory that it will take 5 years or so to hit 100.

[lumberjack_jeff]

18. The price at my nearest station went up $0.30 to $2.59 yesterday

[BulletproofLandshark]

5. I'm guessing 2008 is when we hit $100

That's not based on any hard facts, just a guess based on the way things are going now. I can't even begin to imagine the state of the world then. Actually I can, but it's too frightening to contemplate.

[bluedonkey]

6. I will have

switched to donkey and buggy long before that happens.

[The Devils Advocate]

7. $199.00 / barrel by 2007

They have done the calculations. America can absorb pump prices of $7.00 per gallon. This translates into $200 per barrel. I am an optimist and I don't think it will get quite that high, but close.

[Delphinus]

8. Doubt it will take that long.

And that's only if Peak Oil doesn't rear its head before then (the more I read, the more I do believe it's here or coming soon).

[Ms_Mary]

11. What is Greenspan on that he keeps saying he expects it to go down?

I don't think it's going down. Everything I've read is using the $100/barrell prediction, but CNN this morning is covering Greenspan saying it will go down.

[endarkenment]

13. Greenspan started deliberately lying about reality back in 2000.

Maybe talking down a panic at this point is a good thing, I don't really know. On the other hand, as the reports of the looming demise of the major saudi cheap oil field continue to surface, as the number of independent reports of an oil production crisis mounts, Greenspan's thumb-in-the-dike approach is starting to look just plain stupid.

[hatrack]

15. Everything I've seen (Oil & Gas Journal, WSJ) . . .

Mentions how Ghawar is pumping more and more water per barrel. It's the inevitable result of the massive water flooding EOR they've been doing there, and it can't go on forever.

[Javaman]

16. Boy, they are optimistic LOL

I think if it hit 100 bucks by 2010, that would be a treat for us LOL.
I'm saying sometime around mid 2007.