STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday 31 March

[ozymandius]

Thursday March 31, 2005

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 3 YEARS, 295 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 4 YEARS, 108 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 3 YEARS, 164 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1222
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON March 30, 2005

Dow... 10,540.93 +135.23 (+1.30%)
Nasdaq... 2,005.67 +31.79 ( +1.61%)
S&P 500... 1,181.41 +16.05 (+1.38%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.56% -0.03 (-0.72%)
Gold future... 429.50 +0.90 (+0.21%)





GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie




PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

[UpInArms]

1. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 84.04 Change -0.25 (-0.30%)

http://www.dailyfx.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=516&Itemid=39

Dollar Treads Cautiously Ahead Of Heavy Data

EURUSD

The dollar held onto its gains despite a weaker US GDP release ahead of what will be two days of heavy US, European and Japanese economic data. Jobs are on center stage as France and Germany present the latest reports on the health of their labor market. There are hopes for improvements in France, but German unemployment remains exceptionally high. The daily newspaper Berliner Zeitung reported that a non-seasonally adjusted 41,000 would be added on the month, while Reuters quoted a seasonally adjusted figure of 92,000, citing unidentified sources with knowledge of Federal Labor Agency data. These recent press leaks followed a claim by Die Welt newspaper a few days earlier that 20,000 job seekers would be added in March, pushing the total figure near a postwar unadjusted figure of 5.22 million. Though the sources disagree on the specific increase, there is little doubt that the legions of unemployed will swell for yet another month because of unusually cold weather and the continued impact of the Hartz labor market reform. Of course, the faltering economy's weak activity growth is also to blame, as the latest business surveys have suggested, perhaps more than any other cause. An actual seasonally adjusted figure of 100K could push the unemployment rate past the 12.0% threshold, which would spell disaster for the euro.

<snip>

USDJPY

Despite some intra-day volatility, the Japanese Yen closed relatively unchanged following yesterday's decline. Japanese preliminary industrial production figures for February revealed that further disappointment in Japan's economy. Industrial production fell at a seasonally adjusted, month-over-month rate of 2.1%, the worst decline in a year. The median forecast of 33 analysts suggested a fall of 1.1%. Additionally, the average lending rate in February decreased to 1.324% from 1.551%, again suggesting hesitant investors, wary consumers, and a worsening economy. Labor earnings information was also released today, showing stagnant earnings growth. The markets await tomorrow's final fiscal year figures. Reports on March 31st, the last day of Japan's fiscal year, include the Tankan manufacturing and industrial reports, which could register at worse-than-expected values given today's industrial production figures. A weaker Tankan report could spur further gains in USDJPY.

...more...

http://www.dailyfx.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=515&Itemid=39

Dollar Yen: Where Are We Headed Next - 104 or 110?

Oil Prices Continue To Rise, Hurting Japanese Growth

With West Texas Intermediate Crude stubbornly hovering around record highs of $57/bbl, Japanese corporations will suffer a double blow to their bottom lines as input costs ranging from energy to basic raw materials such as steel will increase markedly at the same time as global demand for exports decline due to contracting disposable income. Although Japan is one of the most energy efficient nations in the world, it still imports 99.5% of its crude oil needs and is therefore the most vulnerable G-3 member to rising oil prices. If oil prices continue to rise, Japan's economy could face further deterioration, which could lead to more losses for the Japanese Yen. This vulnerability has taken a huge toll on the Japanese economy, which is clearly evident in the latest string of weaker economic data. The Trade Surplus narrowed to 1550 Billion JPY from 1776 Billion JPY the month prior as a direct result of higher input costs. The unemployment rate in Japan increased from 4.5% to 4.7%, with the number of employed individuals falling for the first time in three months. With worsening labor market conditions, household spending fell by a more than expected 4.1%. Wage growth in Japan has been weak, resulting in a fall in income. This has also impacted retail sales, which slipped more than expected on an annualized basis. With oil prices raising the cost of basic necessities in general, Japanese consumers are even more pinched than before.

Deflation Remains a Problem and USDJPY Becomes New Carry Trade

With consumer prices on a national level, falling for a second consecutive month (-0.3% on year/year basis), deflation remains a chronic problem for the Japanese economy. Because deflation is still rampant, Japanese companies have little power to increase prices and therefore try to increase profits by cutting costs and reducing wages. The latest unemployment release showed a muted growth in labor cash earning of only 0.1%, while hours worked actually declined by 1.4% in the latest period. The net result of this dynamic is lower consumer confidence (the Eco watcher survey has been below 50 for six straight months) and lower consumer spending as evidenced by a sharp drop in Household Spending which registered a -3.8% decline from last year. This vicious cycle of contracting consumer demand and stagnant wage growth is likely to continue for the near term forcing the Bank of Japan to maintain is ultra accommodative monetary policy and keep interest rates at zero. With US rates now at 2.75% the interest rate differential is already at 275 basis points and may expand to as much as 425 basis points if the Fed continues to pursue it tightening policy. Such a rich premium is likely to attract a slew of carry trade speculators who could conceivably earn 42.5% annual returns on 10:1 leverage basis. The inflow of speculative carry trade capital could easily push the USDJPY pair above the 110 level as more and more players crowd into the trade.

...more...

http://www.dailyfx.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=530&Itemid=46

NFP - Erring on the Side of Caution

The Non-Farm payroll report will be released Friday at 13:30 GMT and this month predicting the number is even more difficult than usual. As we have noted many times in the past handicapping the NFP' s is often an exercise in futility. Last year, for example, the consensus estimate was accurate only 2 out of 12 months or just 16% of the time. This month the task is further complicated by the fact that it is being released early (April 1st) making some of the usual pre-NFP reports such the Challenger layoff numbers, the ISM employment figures and the Monster survey all unavailable for analysis. Nevertheless, some of the broader economic indicators as well the weekly jobless claims data are suggesting that the NFP report is unlikely to exceed market expectations.

The Bloomberg consensus for the March NFP presently stands at 219K against last month's figure of 262K. The majority of analysts are tightly clustered around the 200K number while the extreme estimates stand at 165K low and 300K high. Although the "Jobs Are Plentiful" component of the most recent Conference Board's Consumer Confidence report rose ever so slightly in March to 21.3% vs. 21.1% in February, the actual survey week of jobless claims for the March NFP report recorded 321K claims - far higher than the 303K claims recorded during the survey week in February's report. March's survey week reading of 321K is slightly higher than the 318K survey week January and bit lower than December survey week of 331K. During January and December the NFP' s reported 155K and 132K respectively, far lower than February's figures and below present expectations for March.

Furthermore, the full Conference Board Consumer Confidence numbers slipped to 102.4 from 104 reading last month indicating that the buoyant optimism seen at the beginning of this year may be ebbing. Additionally, weaker results in Industrial Production (0.3% vs. 0.4%), Durable Goods (0.3% vs.0.9%), GDP (3.8% vs.4.0%) along with the lower employment component in Philly Fed survey (10.1 vs. 12.3) all point to a more muted result in March. The simple fact of the matter is that faced with $2.50/gallon gasoline and a hesitant, cautious consumer, it is difficult to imagine employers aggressively adding new hires, especially in light of the fact that benefit costs are relentlessly rising.



...more...

OUCH! on the 'toon, Ozy! :D

Have a Great Day Marketeers!

[RawMaterials]

7. Gold Rises to Near Week's High in London as Dollar Weakens

March 31 (Bloomberg) -- Gold prices in London rose to near a one-week high as the dollar declined against the euro and the yen, boosting metal's appeal as an alternative to U.S. assets.

``Today will see more dollar watching,'' James Moore, a precious-metals analyst with TheBullionDesk.com, said in an e- mailed report.

The yen headed for its biggest gain against the dollar in three weeks on speculation Japanese companies such as Toyota Motor Corp. repatriated overseas funds on the last day of the financial year. The Japanese currency also got a boost after Bank of Japan Governor Toshihiko Fukui said the economy will return to sustained growth soon.

Gold for immediate delivery rose $1.38 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $427.73 an ounce as of 11:54 a.m. in London. Gold rose 26 cents to its highest close since March 22 yesterday.
The dollar traded at $1.2960 against the euro, from $1.2913 late yesterday in New York, according to the EBS electronic currency dealing system. Against the yen it was trading at 106.86, from 107.55 late yesterday in New York.

The euro rose even after government reports today showed unemployment in Germany rose to a postwar record of 12 percent in March and France's jobless rate held at a five-year high last month, threatening prospects for economic growth in the dozen nations sharing the common currency.

A strike at Gold Fields Ltd. the world's fourth-biggest gold producer, could give gold further ``background support,'' Moore said.

Gold Fields said a strike that started last night at its South African mines halted production as the country's biggest union downed tools over disputes including housing allowances.

South African Strike

The strike could affect about 70 percent of Gold Fields 42,000 workers, as 29,000 of the company's staff are covered by the National Union of Mineworkers. The company normally produces 8,000 ounces of gold a day in South Africa.

South Africa's mining companies pay costs including wages, which make up half of all expenses, in rand and sell metal for dollars. Profits have plunged as the rand more than doubled against the dollar in the past three years.

Among other precious metals for immediate delivery in London, silver rose 7 cents, or 1 percent, to $7.19 an ounce. It earlier touched $7.21, a level not seen since March 21. Platinum advanced 50 cents, or 0.1 percent, to $863 an ounce. Palladium was unchanged at $196.50 an ounce. It earlier touched $198.50, the highest level in more than a week.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000086&sid=aL7ceItVBiLo&refer=latin_america

[UpInArms]

16. IMF could sell gold to help poor countries

http://www.sundaytimes.co.za/zones/sundaytimesNEW/business/business1112272664.aspx

IMF head Rodrigo Rato said that the fund could sell part of its gold reserves to finance debt relief for poor countries without destabilising the market.

The IMF's undervalued gold should be used in an "efficient way", and this would be to sell it on the market rather than through a book-keeping exercise to revalue part of the reserves, Rato told the Financial Times.

The International Monetary Fund had 3,217 tons of gold in its reserves with a market value of 45 billion dollars, the FT said. In August the fund officially valued its gold reserves at 8.5 billion dollars.

"Once we have to be an actor in the market, we would need to respect the way the market is functioning. That would be to the advantage of everybody, the producers but also the fund," Rato said.

...more...

[UpInArms]

10. Dollar weakens ahead of U.S. data

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B2E5F66DD%2D289E%2D45ED%2DB020%2DFC2B80A5F606%7D&siteid=mktw

LONDON (MarketWatch) - The dollar was slightly lower against the British pound and the euro Thursday, ahead of key inflation data due today and unemployment figures from the U.S. due Friday.

The euro was at $1.2963, compared with $1.2933 in Asian trade.

Kamal Sharma, currencies strategist at Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein, said the euro is "following a dynamic of its own," trading within the $1.29 and $1.30 band. He said we shouldn't see this change ahead of the U.S. non-farm payrolls data on Friday.

"If the payrolls figure is stronger than the implied market consensus, we'll probably see a dollar rally," Sharma said. Economists polled by MarketWatch forecast that 221,000 jobs were created last month, following a gain of 262,000 jobs in February.

...more...

[UpInArms]

15. Dollar still down after personal income, jobless data

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38442.3674511574-833715221&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - The dollar remained lower Thursday after a key inflation measure in personal income data showed a slight decline in February from January. The core personal consumption expenditure price index - the Federal Reserve's favorite measure of consumer inflation - rose 0.2 percent in February, down from a 0.3 percent gain in January. Dollar proponents were hoping for a more brisk indication of inflation - in order to push the Federal Reserve into a bolder rate hikes program. U.S jobless claims in the latest week rose 20,000 to 350,000, contrasting with a MarketWatch forecast for a drop to 320,000. The euro stood at $1.2989, up 0.5 percent, and the dollar was quoted at 106.76 yen, down 0.7 percent.

[UpInArms]

2. Freddie Mac Profit Falls More Than 40 Pct

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=8048124&src=rss/businessNews

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Freddie Mac (FRE.N: Quote, Profile, Research) , the second-largest U.S. home financing company that is pushing to emerge from a scandal-marked era, on Thursday posted a more than 40 percent drop in 2004 net income as the value of contracts used to hedge against interest rate changes fell.

Freddie earned $2.8 billion, or $3.78 per diluted share, in 2004, compared with $4.8 billion, or $6.68 per share, in 2003.

The mortgage funder blamed the steep drop in net income on losses related to derivatives. But Freddie said that while its derivatives can lead to big earnings swings, the instruments remain important in managing interest rate risk.

"Overall it does look good," said Ed Groshans, analyst at Fox-Pitt, Kelton in New York.

"I know people aren't going to be excited about the bottom line," Groshans said. But he said that 2005 results will likely be less impacted by hedging activities. "So we'll get a cleaner number."

...more...

Oopsie!

[UpInArms]

3. S&P: Canary Wharf Finance notes 'on watch' amid AIG

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38442.2852081134-833710895&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- Ratings agency Standard & Poor's said Thursday that it has placed the credit rating on class A1, A3 and A5 notes isssued by Canary Wharf Finance II Plc on CreditWatch with negative implications. Standard & Poor's said this action follows the lowering of the long-term counterparty credit ratings on American International Group (AIG) on March 30. The Canary Wharf class A note ratings are not directly linked to AIG ratings but the note structure contains a credit enhancement feature - the HQ2 facility - which would cover four years of lost income in the event of tenant default. This facility is provided by AIG Financial Products Corp. and guaranteed by AIG. The agency affirmed ratings on Canary Wharf's class B, C and D notes.

[UpInArms]

4. EU proposes 15% duty hike on some U.S. goods

http://www.marketwatch.com/help/default.asp?page=support/help/reprint.asp&dist=reprints&siteid=mktw

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- The European Commission has proposed lifting duties on some U.S. goods by 15 percent from May 1 as trade sanctions related to their antidumping dispute concering the Byrd Amendment, according to reports from AFX News and Dow Jones. The commission said it took the decision because of the "continuing failure of the US to bring its legislation in conformity with its international obligations."

[Tace]

11. Body Of Above Story Is Midleading -- "Lifting" Should Be "Increasing"

Lifting is usually used to mean "removing."

[UpInArms]

37. Canada to slap surtax on some U.S. goods in trade fight

http://www.cbc.ca/story/business/national/2005/03/31/tradefight-050331.html

OTTAWA - Canada plans to impose a 15 per cent surtax on imports of U.S. cigarettes, oysters, live swine and some types of fish starting May 1.

Ottawa said Thursday it is slapping on the duties to retaliate against the United States for its failure to comply with the World Trade Organization ruling on the Byrd Amendment.

The amendment allows U.S. producers to receive anti-dumping and countervailing duties collected by the U.S. government from foreign competitors.

The WTO has ruled the amendment is illegal, and in November 2004, the trade body gave Canada and the other co-complainants the authority to retaliate.

Canada's decision to retaliate came as the European Union took similar action. The EU is planning 15 per cent tariffs on U.S. paper, textiles, machinery and farm produce beginning May 1.

...more...

[UpInArms]

5. Oil futures turn higher as bulls win out

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B799AC7A6%2DFAAD%2D40CE%2D9941%2D7B61E494168A%7D&siteid=mktw

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- Crude-oil futures strengthened slightly on Thursday, continuing Wednesday's late rally after supply data pushed prices lower earlier in the day.

May crude oil futures were last trading at 19 cents higher in Thursday electronic trade, at $54.18 a barrel.

May crude fell as low as $52.50 a barrel on Wednesday, with the slide precipitated by reports from the Energy Department and the American Petroleum Institute data that showed a healthy increase in U.S. crude supplies.

The Energy Department said crude supplies rose 5.4 million barrels for the week ended March 25.

Separately, the American Petroleum Institute said crude supplies were up 2.6 million barrels, while gasoline inventories fell 1.9 million barrels and distillate supplies were lower by 639,000 barrels.

...more...

[UpInArms]

50. refinery capacity a problem

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000086&sid=a7_vYaRBxg48&refer=latin_america

excerpt:

``Crude oil supplies are rising but the products continue to fall,'' said Tom Bentz, an oil broker at BNP Paribas Commodity Futures Inc. in New York. ``Yesterday we sold off on the crude number but as the day progressed attention shifted to the products. It's an old story. We go down for a day or two and there is talk of a correction but the market comes right back again. That's been the case for more than a year.''

U.S. crude-oil stockpiles gained 5.4 million barrels, or 1.7 percent, to 314.7 million in the week ended March 25, the biggest increase since October, the Energy Department report showed. Gasoline supplies fell 2.9 million barrels to 214.4 million last week.

...more...

[UpInArms]

6. Today's Reports (It's MaeveDay!):

Mar 31 8:30 AM
Initial Claims 03/26
report -
briefing.com 320K
market 320K
last report 324K
revised -

Mar 31 8:30 AM
Personal Income Feb
report -
briefing.com 0.5%
market 0.4%
last report -2.3%
revised -

Mar 31 8:30 AM
Personal Spending Feb
report -
briefing.com 0.7%
market 0.5%
last report 0.0%
revised -

Mar 31 10:00 AM
Chicago PMI Mar
report -
briefing.com 60.5
market 60.5
last report 62.7
revised -

Mar 31 10:00 AM
Factory Orders Feb
report -
briefing.com 0.4%
market 0.5%
last report 0.2%
revised -

Mar 31 10:00 AM
Help-Wanted Index Feb
report -
briefing.com 41
market 41
last report 41
revised -

[UpInArms]

13. U.S. weekly jobless claims rise 20,000 to 350,000

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38442.354269294-833714399&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. weekly jobless claims rose 20,000 to 350,000, the Labor Department reported Thursday. The 4 week average of new jobless claims was up by 8,500 to 336,000, the highest since Jan. 15. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch were expecting claims to fall to 320,000. The number of people still collecting unemployment benefits, meanwhile, fell 66,000 to 2.6 million, the department said.

U.S. Feb. spending up 0.5%, incomes 0.3%

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38442.3542471181-833714391&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - U.S. consumer spending rose 0.5 percent in February, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. Meanwhile, personal incomes rose 0.3 percent. The increases were a tad less than expected. Wall Street economists had forecast a 0.6 percent gain in spending and a 0.4 percent increase in income in February. Inflation pressures eased a bit in February. The core PCE index - which excludes food and energy prices - rose 0.2 percent after a 0.3 percent gain in January. The core PCE index is up 1.6 percent in the past year.

8:30am 03/31/05 U.S. CONTINUING JOBLESS CLAIMS DOWN 66,000 TO 2.6 MLN

8:30am 03/31/05 U.S. 4-WK. AVG. JOBLESS CLAIMS UP 8,500 TO 336,000

8:30am 03/31/05 U.S. FEB. CORE PCE PRICE INDEX UP 0.2%, 1.6% Y-O-Y

8:30am 03/31/05 U.S. FEB. PCE PRICE INDEX UP 0.3%, UP 2.3% Y-O-Y

8:30am 03/31/05 U.S. FEB. PERSONAL INCOME UP 0.3% VS 0.4% EXPECTED

8:30am 03/31/05 U.S. FEB. CONSUMER SPENDING UP 0.5% VS 0.6% EXPECTED

8:30am 03/31/05 U.S. WEEKLY JOBLESS CLAIMS RISE 20,000 TO 350,000

[UpInArms]

23. U.S. Feb. factory orders up 0.2% vs 0.4% forecast

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/archivedpulseone.asp?archive=pulsetrue&dist=ArchiveSplash&siteid=mktw&guid=&dateid=38442.4167788194-833718011&returnURL=%2Fnews%2Fnewsfinder%2Fpulseone%2Easp%3Fdateid%3D38442%2E4167788194%2D833718011%26siteID%3Dmktw%26scid%3D0%26doctype%3D806%26archive%3Dpulsetrue

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Orders for U.S.-made factory goods rose 0.2 percent in February, the Commerce Department said Thursday. Economists had been expecting factory orders to rise 0.4 percent, according to a survey conducted by Marketwatch. January orders were revised down to unchanged compared with the initial estimate of a 0.2 percent increase. Orders are up 8.7 percent year-on-year. February durable goods orders were revised up 0.5 percent from the initial estimate of a 0.3 percent rise. Nondurable goods orders fell 0.2 percent in February.

U.S. Feb. help-wanted index unchanged at 41

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38442.4171772685-833718058&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Help-wanted advertising in major U.S. newspapers was unchanged in February, the Conference Board said Thursday. The board's help-wanted index remained at 41, the same as in January, and up from 40 a year ago. In the last three months, help-wanted ads have increased in all nine regions of the U.S., with the largest gains in the Mountain (45 percent), West South Central (17.5 percent) and East North Central (14.9 percent) regions. Conference Board economist Ken Goldstein said that data signals a "positive but choppy trendline likely for new job creation over the next few months."

Factory orders eke out gain in Feb.
Shipments have largest decline since Sept. 2004

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B862E501E%2D84C0%2D488E%2DB8B5%2D6171B3ED6208%7D&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Orders for new factory-made goods rose slightly in February, but failed to show much vigor, the Commerce Department said Thursday.

Factory orders rose 0.2 percent in February, below expectations.

Economists were forecasting factory orders to rise 0.4 percent in February, according to a survey conducted by MarketWatch. See Economic Calendar.

Adding to the general sense of malaise, January orders were revised down to unchanged compared with the initial estimate of a 0.2 percent increase.

Orders are up 8.7 percent year-on-year.

February durable goods orders were revised up 0.5 percent from the initial estimate of a 0.3 percent rise.

...more...

10:00am 03/31/05 U.S. FEB. NONDURABLE GOODS ORDERS DOWN 0.2%

10:00am 03/31/05 U.S. FEB. DURABLE ORDERS UP REVISED 0.5% VS 0.3% PREV

10:00am 03/31/05 U.S. JAN. FACTORY ORDERS REVISED TO FLAT VS UP 0.2 PREV

10:00am 03/31/05 U.S. FEB. FACTORY ORDERS UP 0.2% VS 0.4% FORECAST

10:00am 03/31/05 U.S. FEB. HELP-WANTED INDEX UNCHANGED AT 41

10:00am 03/31/05 CHOPPY U.S. JOB GROWTH AHEAD, SAYS CONFERENCE BOARD

9:58am 03/31/05 MARCH CHICAGO PMI AT 69.2% VS. 60.4% FORECAST

[UpInArms]

8. Weak economy checked growing commutes

http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/employment/2005-03-30-commute-usat_x.htm

The recession earlier this decade had one positive impact: Americans' commutes held steady because fewer people were working.

The time of the average daily trip to work remained at about 24.3 minutes from 2000 to 2003, according to Census Bureau rankings released Wednesday. Average commute times had increased by about 3 minutes in the 1990s.

<snip>

Employment peaked in early 2001 at 132.5 million, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. It dropped steadily until late 2003.

In areas hard hit by the economic downturn, commute times grew shorter. The trend is clear in Silicon Valley: In San Jose, the average one-way trip to work fell from 26.6 minutes in 2000 to 23.8 in 2003. In nearby San Francisco, the average trek went from 29.5 minutes in 2000 to 28.5 in 2003.

...more...

See how well it works! No job = no commute!

[AnneD]

49. LOL LOL LOL

Talk about putting lipstick on an old sow. I got news for these economic Einsteins...the 'recovery' of 2003-2004 is because most middle class consumers refied their homes and have spent the money and are still under employed or unemployed.

[UpInArms]

9. AIG shares fall as its woes mount

http://www.newsday.com/business/ny-bzaig4196781mar31,0,3196206.story?coll=ny-business-headlines

Just how deep are the problems at American International Group?

Phony accounting for more than a decade, the forced retirement of its legendary long-time chairman, a sharp drop in the company's stock and criminal investigations of the Manhattan-based insurance giant may be just the beginning, analysts said yesterday, even as new woes were added to the list.

And that could spell bad news for investors, policyholders and employees, the analysts said.

AIG, the world's largest insurance company, said for the first time yesterday that an array of accounting problems during the past 14 years may have inflated the company's net worth by as much as $1.7 billion, and that it will delay its fourth-quarter earnings report for a second time in order to complete a more full review. What's more, Standard & Poor's lowered its credit rating yesterday on AIG from the prestigious AAA to AA+.

<snip>

The company is one of the world's largest employers, with 93,000 workers worldwide - about 8,000 of them in the metropolitan area. AIG is also the fifth-largest company in the Dow Jones industrial index of 30 blue-chip stocks, with a market value of $148 billion, and a staple of some of the most conservative pension and mutual funds.

AIG, which has operations in 130 countries, posted net income of $9.2 billion last year on sales of $81 billion. Most analysts say AIG remains on solid ground, for the moment at least.

...more...

AIG and GM .... a wicked combination of bad news?

[UpInArms]

39. AIG obscures significant MBIA story

Probe of bond insurer may have broad ramifications

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B6104CF7E%2D52C7%2D4661%2DA089%2D187F2616C0EC%7D&siteid=mktw

SAN DIEGO (MarketWatch) -- As the insurance industry scandal unfolds, it's remarkable how the controversy surrounding MBIA has somehow gotten lost in the shuffle.

<snip>

Yet, as the largest insurer of muni bonds and other types of financial products, MBIA (MBI: news, chart, profile) is at the heart of the country's financial system. Imagine the possible chaos if investors start to question the tens of thousands of bonds that have MBIA wraps on them and scramble to look through to all of the underlying creditors. Anything that could even put its coveted Triple-A credit rating on a "watch" for a possible downgrade could be devastating.

MBIA already has conceded that its business is "challenging" -- not good even without all of the investigations.

Still, its stock Thursday slipped only 4 percent to around $54.29 and remains just under all-time highs even after Wednesday night's announcement that the company had "received additional requests" from New York Attorney General Elliot Spitzer and the Securities and Exchange Commission for information to "supplement the subpoenas it received in late 2004." The original subpoenas focused on the company's questionable purchase of re-insurance to cover losses tied to the Allegheny Health Education and Research Foundation.

...more...

[UpInArms]

12. Commercial Federal to exit mortgage servicing business

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?siteid=mktw&guid=%7BC6761710-7956-490B-BE50-74B50C9603F4%7D&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Commercial Federal Corp. (CFB) said Thursday it would post a loss for its first quarter in connection with plans to sell its mortgage servicing business. The Omaha, Neb.-based company reached a definitive agreement to sell the $10 billion national third-party mortgage servicing portfolio and correspondent mortgage origination network to Wells Fargo Bank, N.A., a subsidiary of Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC) . "The size of our mortgage servicing for others portfolio created too much variability in our earnings and that detracted from the performance of the rest of the bank," said Fred Kulikowski, CFB president and chief operating officer. Commercial Federal expects to take an after-tax charge of about $65 million in the first quarter associated with prepayment of Federal Home Loan Bank borrowings, selling investment securities, eliminating interest rate hedges and recording certain exit costs tied to the business. Approximately 135 jobs will be affected by the sale.

[RawMaterials]

14. More home buyers go with adjustable-rate mortgages

WASHINGTON — The percentage of homeowners taking out adjustable-rate mortgages hit a record last week, a milestone some economists say might one day spell trouble for financially stretched consumers.

Some 36.6% of mortgages, including refinancings and new purchases, had adjustable rates last week, the Mortgage Bankers Association said Wednesday. That's up more than 3 percentage points from the prior week and 9 percentage points from a year ago.

The ARM portion was the highest since the group began collecting the data in 1990. The next-highest percentage was recorded more than a decade ago.

snip..

That could also cause problems for the economy if consumers, whose spending accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, are forced to pinch pennies to pay mortgages, or to default.

"While ARMs buy home buyers some relief in housing affordability in the short run, the longer-run implications ... can be negative," says Celia Chen, director of housing economics at Economy.com.

Other economists say the increase in adjustable-rate mortgages is not cause for concern. Homeowners have grown more savvy and likely would refinance to lock in lower rates if they saw rates skyrocketing. Many ARMs are capped, so interest rates can only increase so much each year, and eventually hit a ceiling.

William Hummer, chief economist at Wayne Hummer Investments, also notes mortgage rates are unlikely to soar to the double digits they hit in years' past.

http://www.usatoday.com/money/perfi/housing/2005-03-30-arms-usat_x.htm

:puke: :puke: :puke:

[UpInArms]

46. (Denver) Metro mortgage defaults on rise

http://www.denverpost.com/Stories/0,1413,36~33~2788653,00.html

Soaring foreclosure filings in Arapahoe County for the first three months of this year helped drive metro Denver's foreclosure rate 34 percent higher than the same period of last year and 30 percent higher than the fourth quarter of 2004.

The seven-county region's ballooning rates stem from bad borrowing and lending decisions, lagging income growth and flat home prices, experts say.

It's hard to continue blaming foreclosures only on the economy. Colorado added 27,900 jobs last year, and the state's unemployment rate dropped in January to 4.9 percent, the lowest level since September 2001.

"Lenders started giving money to people, and it's gotten out of hand," said Jeannie Reeser, public trustee of Adams County. "I am talking to people who have jobs, but their income doesn't come anywhere close to matching their financing."

<snip>

Arapahoe County's most recent quarterly filing rate is more than double the 757 foreclosures posted in the fourth quarter of last year. The county had the dubious distinction of posting the greatest rise in foreclosures last year - a 39 percent spike over 2003.

Wenke said most of the foreclosures her office is handling are tied to loans less than a year and a half old. Eighty percent of the county's foreclosures occurred in Aurora.

<snip>

"Everybody has to have what they want right now, no waiting, no saving up," he said. "Credit is so loose today that I can buy the groceries I need on a credit card, eat the food tonight, discard the food by tomorrow at noon and finance my debt on a 30-year, amortized loan. How stupid is that? But people do it all the time - and then they wonder why they're in foreclosure."

...more at link...

[UpInArms]

53. U.S. 30, 15-year mortgage rates up for 7th week

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=bondsNews&storyID=8052078

WASHINGTON, March 31 (Reuters) - U.S. interest rates on 30- and 15-year mortgages rose for the seventh consecutive week as inflation pushed home borrowing costs higher, according to a report issued on Thursday by mortgage finance company Freddie Mac.

U.S. 30-year mortgage rates rose to an average of 6.04 percent in the week ended March 31 from 6.01 percent a week earlier. Last week, 30-year mortgages topped 6 percent for the first time since July 2004.

Fifteen-year mortgages rose in the week to an average of 5.58 percent from 5.56 percent.

One-year adjustable rate mortgages (ARM) averaged 4.33 percent, up from 4.24 percent last week. The increase in the one-year ARM brought it to its highest level since 4.35 percent in the September 6, 2002, week.

...more...

[plasticsundance]

17. UpInArms, thanks for the link yesterday on same topic!

:toast:

Collapse of the US Dollar: too Close or too Far?

Nevertheless, international accounts indicate the US dollar has lost 38 percent of its value compared to the euro since February 2002, 25 percent in relation to the Canadian dollar, and 23 percent facing the Japanese yen. These are but three examples.

Twenty years ago, the main US allies signed the so-called Plaza Agreement with Washington in the New York Plaza Hotel, to reduce the value of the US dollar, in order to enable the local market to balance its high commercial deficit.

But the US consumer buys more imported goods and services than locally produced ones, so the rise in exports generated by a cheaper dollar diluted the additional income with growing imports, leading to increasingly higher prices.

The other "twin", the budget deficit, was likewise inflated by tax reductions approved by George W. Bush that gave most benefit to the highest income bracket, ie the rich, so less contributions to the Treasury were made.

Experts quoted by The Financial Times, The New York Times and other media are in agreement in their predictions of a crisis in the world economy, and consequently, an ever-growing debt for the US, now the greatest debtor in history owing in all between 70 and 100 trillion dollars.

Awareness of the coming catastrophe has not entered the minds of most US citizens, fed only a diet of commercial radio and television trash controlled by five or six corporate media outlets. Truth is a delicacy alien to the palate of 99 percent of US citizens, especially economic truth.

Emphasis mine.

[UpInArms]

28. you're welcome plasticsundance

:cheers:

from you post:

Experts quoted by The Financial Times, The New York Times and other media are in agreement in their predictions of a crisis in the world economy, and consequently, an ever-growing debt for the US, now the greatest debtor in history owing in all between 70 and 100 trillion dollars.

Isn't it amazing that no one seems to care about the debts we're racking up?

RayGun and FUCheney spewing "deficits don't matter" isn't going to make this go away. :shakeshead:

[UpInArms]

18. Goldman ups top of 'super spike' range est to $105/bbl (YIKES!)

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38442.3828862616-833716017&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Goldman Sachs believes the oil markets have entered the early stages of a "super spike" period, which Analyst Arjun Murti defines as a band of oil prices that could be high enough to reduce energy consumption substantially and create a spare capacity cushion that could reduce energy prices return. Murti increased his super spike range to $50 to $105 per barrel from $50 to $80 per barrel. He also increased his 2005 forecast for West Texas Intermediate oil to $50 per barrel from $41 and his 2006 estimate to $55 per barrel from $40. Murti recommends adding to positions in the oil sector "at current prices, on a pullback, or even after rallies," and raised 2005 and 2006 earnings estimates across the board. His top picks in the sector continue to be Exxon Mobil (XOM) , Amerada Hess (AHC) , Bill Barrett Corp. (BBG) , Devon Energy (DVN) , EnCana Corp. (ECA) , Murphy Oil (MUR) , Newfield Exploration (NFX) , Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) , Premcor (PCO) , Questar Corp. (STR) and Suncor Energy (SU) .

[UpInArms]

25. Oils rally as crude returns to $55

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BDC5F1A77%2D9620%2D405A%2DB3FB%2DF3C16AD5795F%7D&siteid=mktw

DALLAS (MarketWatch) - Oil and gas stocks rallied Thursday morning as crude futures returned to the $55 level.

Goldman Sachs, in a research note Thursday, said oil prices could reach $105 a barrel, up from a previous estimate of $80. See full story.

"The strength in oil demand and economic growth, especially in the United States and China, following a year of $40-$50 per barrel WTI oil has surprised us... The reason for this adjustment in view is that persistent high prices are improving the financial position of key oil exporting countries and could serve to keep potential revolution at bay," said analyst Arjun Murti.

Ahead of the open of the New York Mercantile Exchange, May crude added 2 percent, or $1.07, to $55.06 a barrel.

...more...

[UpInArms]

55. Crude, products keep grip on rally at close ($55.40 bbl)

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38442.6435850463-833729443&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

DALLAS (MarketWatch) - May crude closed almost 3 percent higher Thursday on the New York Mercantile Exchange as Goldman Sachs warned oil could reach $105 a barrel. The contract settled at $55.40 a barrel, up 2.6 percent, or $1.41 after reaching a session high of $56.10. April heating oil rose 3.2 percent, or 5.1 cents, to settle at an all-time high of $1.6576 a gallon, taking out the previous all-time high of $1.603 set in Oct. 2004. May heating oil -- now the front month contract -- rose 3.3 percent, or 5.19 cents, to close at $1.6161 a gallon. April gasoline rallied 3.7 percent, or 5.88 cents, to close at a record $1.6549 a gallon, taking out the all-time high of $1.608 set a week ago. May gasoline added 2.9 percent, or 4.66 cents, to close at $1.6631 a gallon.

[UpInArms]

19. 9:36 EST markets are open (and down)

Dow 10,520.97 -19.96 (-0.19%)
Nasdaq 2,001.22 -4.45 (-0.22%)
S&P 500 1,181.15 -0.26 (-0.02%)
10-Yr Bond 45.11 -0.47 (-1.03%)

NYSE Volume 74,505,000
Nasdaq Volume 79,509,000

[RawMaterials]

20. Pre-Market Blather

9:15AM : S&P futures vs fair value: +1.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -1.5.

9:00AM : S&P futures vs fair value: +1.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -1.5. Futures trade, which ticked a bit higher following economic data, slips a bit amid rising oil prices and now suggests a mixed open for the cash market... Crude oil prices, which were holding onto only modest gains, have recently surged 2.0% to over $55/bbl amid raised crude oil estimates from Goldman Sachs and a weaker dollar

8:34AM : S&P futures vs fair value: +3.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +1.0. Feb Personal Income rose 0.3%, slightly below expectations, while Spending rose 0.5%, in line with forecasts; more notably, the PCE core deflator was 0.2%... Jobless claims rose 20K to 350K... As such, futures trade still suggests a flat to slightly higher open for the indices as Treasurys have ticked higher in response to the data

8:00AM : S&P futures vs fair value: +2.7. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +1.5. Futures market suggesting a flat to slightly higher open for the cash market following the market's best performance in 2005 as investors await economic data... At 8:30 ET, Feb Personal Income (consensus +0.4%), Spending (consensus +0.5%) and Initial Claims (consensus 320 K) will be released... Separately, JNJ could be in focus after receiving a government subpoena while Biogen Idec (BIIB) should be under pressure after reporting a third patient disorder linked to its suspended drug Tysabri

6:24AM : S&P futures vs fair value: +0.4. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.5.

6:24AM : FTSE...4916.70...+16.00...+0.3%. DAX...4363.34...+15.82...+0.4%.

6:24AM : Nikkei...11668.95...+103.07...+0.9%. Hang Seng...13516.88...+91.13...+0.7%.

[RawMaterials]

21. 9:40 Blather

9:40AM: Market struggles to extend yesterday's gains as higher oil prices counter encouraging economic data... While this morning's Feb core PCE deflator rose 0.2%, somewhat easing inflationary pressures as the data checked in below January's 0.3% gain and a 0.3% rise feared by investors, a 2.0% spike in crude oil futures to over $55/bbl has trumped early buying efforts... Feb personal income was up 0.3%, slightly below forecasts of 0.4%, while personal spending was up 0.5%, in line with expectations...

Both numbers are decent from an economic standpoint, but have taken a back seat to the PCE deflator, as inflation remains the key issue...

[ozymandius]

22. WrapUp by Mike Hartman

IT DIDN'T HAVE TO BE THIS WAY"


The Commerce Department released their final revisions for fourth quarter GDP this morning showing growth of 3.8% following consensus expectations of 4.0% growth. The report also showed two closely watched inflation gauges moving higher with the final revisions. The price deflator was adjusted from 2.1% to 2.3% and the personal consumption expenditures index was adjusted from 2.5% to 2.7%. The report initially caused bonds to sell-off, but they came back to remain slightly positive throughout the trading session. The weaker than expected GDP revisions applied modest downward pressure to the U.S. dollar, but had little effect on stock prices. Overall for 2004, the Gross Domestic Product of the USA grew by 4.4%, but notice the trend is declining with only 3.8% growth in the fourth quarter. Stocks are beginning to see the slowdown with this first quarter of 2005 being the worst quarter for stocks in the last two years. Since the beginning of the year, the Dow Industrials are down nearly 3% and the NASDAQ is down by more than 8%.


The party began for stocks today when the price of crude oil came down roughly $1.50 per barrel after the Energy Department released the current inventory data. Crude oil inventories were expected to rise by 2.5 million barrels, but instead rose by a whopping 5.4 million barrel, the biggest increase in the last six months. Unleaded gasoline inventories were expected to decline by 1.8 million barrels, but actually fell by 2.9 million barrels. With crude off by about 3% today, unleaded gas is only down about three cents to $1.55 a gallon. Most folks are expecting higher prices during the summer driving season, so we are not seeing gasoline prices come down as much as crude. We have lots of crude (9% above last year’s level at this time) and though gasoline inventories have declined the last few weeks, we are still 7.4% above year-ago levels. If we have any more explosions at refineries, the price of unleaded should fly even as crude oil inventories continue to build. Refineries are running at full capacity all around the globe just to keep up with demand.

-cut-

Bond prices have been moving lower to reflect rising interest rates, but have stabilized over the last five days since Alan Greenspan bombed the bond market with his warnings of increased inflationary pressures. There was very little volatility today with bonds and the dollar, as the U.S. Treasury was busy again with an auction of $24 billion of two-year notes. According to Bloomberg, “In pre-auction trading, the new notes yielded 3.87%. The Treasury hasn’t awarded a yield higher than that for a two-year note since July 2001.” It’s provocative that we have to go back to July of 2001 to find a comparable yield for a two-year note, since it was November of 2001 that the Treasury stopped issuing 30-year bonds. Ever since then the Treasury has been refinancing their debt to shorter and shorter maturities.

-cut-

From Jim Puplava:


“As far as a hard call on interest rates, I don’t see it. The US economy has too much debt that needs to be sustained. That debt is price sensitive more so today than it was in 1999 and 2000. Another point or less in rate hikes is all we will get before things start falling apart. The US economy is like a drug addict, addicted to easy credit. I doubt if the drug dealers or suppliers of credit are about to deny that credit. The money supply and the monetary base are still in an expansion mode. Our asset markets and wealth creation are narrowly balanced on a thin margin of low interest rates. It will remain that way for a long time. To deny credit or make it more expensive as the Volker Fed did in the late 70’s is out of the question. The economy and the financial markets have become far too levered. The Fed risks collapsing the economy and the financial markets if it gets too aggressive; it is one reason why it has allowed the money supply to grow. Look for the Fed to try another tactic as it appears a rise in interest rates has run its course. The next tactic will be to bring the dollar down.”

more...

http://financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[UpInArms]

24. 10:06 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,516.48 -24.45 (-0.23%)
Nasdaq 2,000.88 -4.79 (-0.24%)
S&P 500 1,181.81 +0.40 (+0.03%)
10-Yr Bond 4.506 -0.52 (-1.14%)

NYSE Volume 335,052,000
Nasdaq Volume 286,971,000

10:00AM: Major indices now trade in split fashion as buyers and sellers remain virtually deadlocked... Energy (+1.5%) has paced the way higher amid rising oil prices while interest-rate sensitive areas like Financial (+0.4%), Utility (+0.9%) and Homebuilding (+1.0%) have also posted solid gains as bond yields have fallen... Materials (+0.9%) has been strong in the wake of dollar weakness while strength in Retail (+0.8%) has helped the Consumer Discretionary sector gain ground...

Technology, however, remains under pressure, perhaps as a result of profit taking following yesterday's 1.6% surge on the Nasdaq... Health Care (-0.6%) has also been weak amid negative news on Johnson & Johnson (JNJ 67.36 -0.69) and Biogen Idec (BIIB 34.69 -3.66)...NYSE Adv/Dec 1482/1170, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1127/1329

[spotbird]

26. Americans more worried about paying their bills than terrorism.

"How often do you worry about the following things: frequently, occasionally, rarely, or never? . . ."

.........................................Frequently Occasionally Rarely Never

"Not being able to pay your bills"....................30 21 24 25

"Getting hurt in a car accident"......................20 34 30 16

"A terrorist attack using nuclear weapons".......13 31 32 23

"Becoming a victim of terrorism"......................12 28 35 25

"A nuclear attack by one country on another"...11 28 34 27

http://pollingreport.com/workplay.htm#Worries

How do you post a table?

[UpInArms]

27. q:how do you post a table?

does it have legs :rofl:

seriously now -

if it is a graphic, you right click and copy the link for the graphic and paste that into your post

if it is just numbers, you copy the info and paste into your post and check the box above the posting that says:

Check here if you want to format your message in plain text. Use for posting code snippets.

it should then post as a table

hope that helps!

[spotbird]

35. Thanks. nt

[trogdor]

31. Use the PRE tag

<pre>
Name Position Number
Who 1B 10
What 2B 12
I Don't Know 3B 14
I Don't Care SS 4
</pre>

Using square brackets for DU:

Name          Position   Number
Who           1B        10
What          2B        12
I Don't Know  3B        14
I Don't Care  SS         4

[RawMaterials]

32. deleted

to remove bad Abbott and Costello reference

[spotbird]

34. Thanks nt

[UpInArms]

29. Blockbuster CEO 2004 total pay was $7.2 mln less options

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BBD34F1A2%2DE56F%2D4063%2D8C5B%2DA9FCB2ED0E40%7D

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Blockbuster Inc. (BBI) said Thursday that Chairman and Chief Executive John F. Antioco was paid total compensation of about $7.2 million for 2004, compared with $7.17 million from the previous year.

Both compensation amounts exclude the grant of stock options and restricted stock award.

The Dallas-based video retail chain said Antioco received a restricted stock award valued at about $26.8 million for 2004, compared with no award for the previous year.

Blockbuster also said it granted Antioco 5 million stock options for 2004, compared with a grant of 200,000 stock options for 2003.

...more...

:wow: That's a lot of late fees!

[UpInArms]

54. Blockbuster laying off 20 percent of headquarters staff

http://www.mysanantonio.com/sharedcontent/APStories/stories/D8965ET00.html

Blockbuster Inc., nation's largest movie-rental chain, plans to lay off up to 20 percent of its headquarters staff in Dallas and the suburb of McKinney, company officials said.

Between 200 and 300 jobs will be eliminated, including open positions that won't be filled, company spokeswoman Karen Raskopf said Thursday. She said the reduction should conclude by the end of April.

The cuts are designed to help offset an incremental $70 million that the company said it would spend this year on Blockbuster Online.

Blockbuster earlier said it would have to cut costs and reduce its corporate staff to help build its growing online DVD rental business.

Raskopf said as many as 30 percent of the staff cuts may come from positions budgeted for this year but as yet unfilled.

...more...

from

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=102&topic_id=1357549#1357568

[UpInArms]

30. here's the taxpayer's blood money trail

General Dynamics unit wins $127.5M BAE deal

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38442.4247797107-833718557&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- General Dynamics Corp. (GD) said Thursday that its General Dynamics Armament and Technical Products unit has been awarded a $127.5 million contract from BAE Systems (BAE) . Under the terms of the deal, General Dynamics will produce towed artillery digitization digital fire control systems and mower kits for BAE, for use by the U.S. military. The Falls Church, Va.-based company said that it expects to complete work on the project by August 2008.

Raytheon gets $51.5M Patriot missile upgrade contract

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38442.426557037-833718637&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Raytheon Co. < s: rtn> said Thursday that it has been awarded a contract valued at more than $51.5 million to upgrade 163 Patriot PAC-2 missiles to the latest GEM+ configuration. The U.S. Army contract was announced on March 8, Raytheon said in a company statement. The work will be performed by Raytheon's Integrated Defense Systems unit, based in Tewksbury, Mass.

"Every gun that is made, every warship launched, every rocket fired, signifies in the final sense a theft from those who hunger and are not fed, those who are cold and are not clothed."
--President Dwight D. Eisenhower, April 16, 1953

[UpInArms]

42. what's "Z Backscatter detection technology"?

American Sciences gets $1.2M U.S. gov't contract

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38442.5364550694-833724222&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- American Science and Engineering Inc. (ASEI) said Thursday that it recieved a $1.2 million research and development contract from the U.S. Government. The Billerica, Mass.-based company said the contract is to design and develop enhanced imaging capabilities for the Z Backscatter Van. Under the terms of the deal, the company will deliver a Z Backscatter Van equipped with the advanced Z Backscatter detection technology.

[ozymandius]

43. Z Backscatter

http://www.as-e.com/products_solutions/zbv.asp

A breakthrough in X-ray detection technology, AS&E's Z Backscatter Van (ZBV) is a low-cost, extremely maneuverable screening system built into a commercially available delivery van. The ZBV allows for immediate deployment in response to security threats, and its high throughput capability facilitates rapid inspections - without impeding the flow of commerce. The system's unique "drive-by" capability allows one or two operators to conduct X-ray imaging of suspect vehicles and objects while the ZBV drives past.


The ZBV can also be operated in stationary mode* by parking the system and producing X-ray images of vehicles as they pass by. Screening can also be accomplished remotely while the system is parked. Remote operation allows scanning to be done safely, even in dangerous environments, while maintaining low-profile operation. The system is unobtrusive, as it maintains the outward appearance of an ordinary van.


The ZBV employs AS&E's patented Z Backscatter technology, which reveals contraband that transmission X-rays miss - such as explosives and plastic weapons - and provides photo-like imaging for rapid analysis. The ZBV is also capable of identifying low levels of radioactivity from both gamma rays and neutrons with optional Radioactive Threat Detection (RTD) technology. The ZBV is ideal for counterterrorism applications, as it can detect dirty bombs and nuclear WMD, in addition to conventional explosives.

[UpInArms]

44. thanks Ozy!

I knew it would be some type of military or security device, just didn't know exactly what.

[UpInArms]

45. General Dynamics gets $36M U.S. Air Force award

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38442.5533818056-833725097&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- General Dynamics Network Systems, a unit of General Dynamics (GD) , said Thursday that the The U.S. Air Force has awarded it a $36 million contract to provide life-cycle support and sustainment services to Air Force voice, video and data networks and equipment. Under terms of the deal, General Dynamics will provide centrally managed life-cycle logistic support for all elements of the Combat Information Transport System for three years.

[UpInArms]

56. Computer Sciences gets $100M Navy contract

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38442.6459159375-833729533&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Computer Sciences Corp. (CSC) said Thursday afternoon that it has signed an agreement with the U.S. Naval Air Systems Command to provide a wide range of support service for the Fielded Training Systems Support II program in Orlando, Fla. The five-year contract is worth about $100 million, the El Segundo, Calif.-based company said.

[UpInArms]

33. energy prices (ouch!)

10:31am 03/31/05 DOE: NATURAL GAS IN STORAGE DOWN 51 BILLION CUBIC FEET

10:40am 03/31/05 APRIL HEATING OIL HITS AT A RECORD $1.638 A GALLON

10:41am 03/31/05 APRIL GASOLINE AT A RECORD $1.62 A GALLON

(edited to update)

[MARALE]

36. Market bounce emboldens bulls

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B6EFEF352%2D394A%2D4AFE%2D84D2%2DC97CA561164E%7D&siteid=mktw

...

Russell's conclusion: "I would guess that this rally should go further, maybe into Friday, but these oversold "pops" can be tricky... I also want to watch the highs and lows -- I'm particularly interested to see whether new highs increase."

I also like to check on Russell's old friend Harry Shultz -- their letters are pretty-well the longest-established, dating back four decades.

...

He writes of "high-pitched inflation in 2005-6. Then, move into stagflation in perhaps 2006-7, then into recession -- perhaps in 2008-9. Precise dating isn't possible, but this is the Biggy Big Picture as I see it."

Shultz says "oil is in a steady uptrend and will be for years." He flatly assumes the gold market is manipulated -- temporarily: "Efforts by governments and Central Banks to restrain the gold price (as they did with the London Gold Pool in the 1970s -- which failed) have been unable to do more recently than slow the pace..."

...

more
I thought we needed a kick

[UpInArms]

38. 12:07 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,514.18 -26.75 (-0.25%)
Nasdaq 1,999.40 -6.27 (-0.31%)
S&P 500 1,182.04 +0.63 (+0.05%)
10-Yr Bond 45.16 -0.42 (-0.92%)

NYSE Volume 916,724,000
Nasdaq Volume 751,989,000

12:00 Market still struggles to gain much traction midday, as surging oil prices offset encouraging economic data and falling bond yields... A nearly 3.0% rise in crude oil prices to over $55.50/bbl, amid concerns of inadequate refining capacity, raised oil estimates from Goldman Sachs and a weaker dollar, has prevented the market from showing much follow through after yesterday's impressive performance... On a more positive note, Feb personal income was up 0.3% (consensus 0.4%) while personal spending was up 0.5% (consensus 0.5%), both decent from an economic standpoint... But the more closely watched core PCE deflator, which checked in up 0.2%, did not rise as high as many economists' had anticipated (+0.3%) and was below January's gain of 0.3%, suggesting that inflation remains well contained... Another report on investors' minds today was the March Chicago PMI, which unexpectedly surged 6.5 points to 69.2 (consensus 60.5) - a new 17-year high... But the report has taken a back seat to tomorrow's national ISM survey, which will provide a more general measure of manufacturing conditions...

Meanwhile, Health Care (-0.6%) has been the most influential of the 10 economic sectors to lose ground after Johnson & Johnson (JNJ 67.11 -0.94) received a subpoena regarding certain consulting contracts and Biogen Idec (BIIB 34.74 -3.61) confirmed its third Tysabri-linked nerve disorder...

Transportation, Industrials and Consumer Staples have also traded lower while profit taking in Technology, following yesterday's 1.6% surge on the Nasdaq, has pressured every sub-sector except Disk Drive (+0.9%)...

Upside Q3 guidance from Western Digital (WDC 12.63 +1.46) has prompted Merrill Lynch to upgrade the disk drive maker to Buy from Neutral... Pacing the way higher has been Energy (+1.7%), in the wake of surging oil prices, while Materials (+1.2%) has also been strong in the wake of dollar weakness...

Retail (+0.5%) has been strong, aided by speculation that JC Penney (JCP 51.64 +3.74) and Saks (SKS 18.06 +1.51) could be acquired, while interest-rate sensitive areas like Utility (+1.0%) and Homebuilding (+1.0%) have found buyers in the wake of declining borrowing costs...

Treasurys have held onto solid gains, as the 10-year note is up 8 ticks to yield 4.51%, after initially ticking higher following an unexpected rise in jobless claims to 350K...The claims data, however, have had little impact on equity markets ahead of tomorrow's more significant employment report...

Separately, Feb factory order rose 0.2%, a bit less than an expected 0.5% gain, but the predictability of the report has prevented it from having any influence on market activity... ..

DJTA -0.5%. ..DJUA +1.0%. ..SOX -0.7%. ..DOT -0.4%. ..XOI +1.4%. ..BTK -1.0%. ..Nasdaq 100 -0.5%. ..NYSE Adv/Dec 2000/1130. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1201/1669.

[ozymandius]

40. Dow below 10500 at 12:46

DJIA
10,499.55
 -41.38  
 -0.39%


Nasdaq
1,995.89
 -9.78  
 -0.49%


S&P 500
1,180.32
 -1.09  
 -0.09%

Gold future
430.70
 +1.20  
 +0.28%

10-Year Bond
4.52%
 -0.04  
 -0.94%

[ozymandius]

41. blather just for you

Stocks Mixed on Economic Data, Oil Prices

Stocks Mixed As Investors Weigh Rise in Incomes and Consumer Spending Against Lofty Oil Prices

NEW YORK (AP) -- Stocks were mixed Thursday as investors weighed a rise in U.S. incomes and consumer spending against lofty oil prices, which were pushed higher by an investment bank's suggestion that energy was in the early stages of a bull market.

-cut-

Wall Street opinions varied on the report from Goldman Sachs, which warned oil was entering a "super spike" period that could drive prices as high as $105 per barrel. The only thing that could take crude to such high levels would be a major disruption in supply from Iran, Iraq or Saudi Arabia, which seems unlikely at this point, said Tracy Herrick, chief economist for the Private Bank of the Peninsula, in Palo Alto, Calif.

-cut-

"The important thing today, the only thing of significance, is the oil figure," Herrick said. "That is the most troubling thing for the market because it has a long-term negative effect on the economy and could act as a drag on profits. Everything else indicates the economy is in glide path for continued strength. The increases in interest rates so far have had no impact on the economy, so that's not an issue. Oil is the issue."

more...

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/050331/wall_street.html?.v=17

[JNelson6563]

47. 2:02 Update

Dow 10,509.01 -31.92 (-0.30%)
Nasdaq 1,998.76 -6.91 (-0.34%)
S&P 500 1,181.71 +0.30 (+0.03%)
10-Yr Bond 4.504% -0.05


*yawn* Hope everyone's faring well......

Julie

[RawMaterials]

48. Some Blather to go with that update

2:00PM: Indices continue to trade in lackluster fashion as buyers remain a reluctant bunch... Yesterday, arguably oversold conditions spurred widespread buying interest that helped the major indices record their largest gains in 2005... Today, however, there has been little follow through despite relatively encouraging economic reports, as surging oil prices have weighed on the proceedings... But with the commodities market entering its final 30 minutes of trading, buyers could be waiting on the sidelines until oil's stranglehold subsides... NYSE Adv/Dec 1968/1258, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1227/1742

1:30PM: Little changed since the last update as the major averages continue to vacillate in roughly the same ranges... Meanwhile, the dollar has extended Wednesday's losses against both the euro (1.2968) and the yen (107.18) amid an unexpected rise in weekly initial claims data and a better than expected inflation measure... Arguably overbought conditions have also prompted profit taking in the currency, as the greenback remains on track to record its best quarter since 2001 with a gain of roughly 4.0% in 2005... NYSE Adv/Dec 1921/1274, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1185/1769

[MARALE]

51. Here comes the pixie dust

http://images.google.com/images;q=tbn:lZSVPMWf9_wJ:

My son loves dragonball z

[UpInArms]

52. 3:06 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,521.05 -19.88 (-0.19%)
Nasdaq 1,999.83 -5.84 (-0.29%)
S&P 500 1,182.80 +1.39 (+0.12%)
10-Yr Bond 45.00 -0.58 (-1.27%)

NYSE Volume 1,602,224,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,321,694,000

3:00PM: Renewed buying interest pushes the blue chip indices to early session highs as bond yields fall to their lowest levels of the day... With the commodities market now closed, and few other catalysts to push equities in either direction, investors have turned their attention to Treasurys... But the recent recovery effort seems to have stalled as modest weakness on the Dow and Nasdaq overshadow slim gains on the S&P, as crude oil prices still closed up more than 2.0% and above $55/bbl... NYSE Adv/Dec 2073/1205, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1244/1762

2:30PM: Market improves its stance but still trades in split fashion... Health Care (-0.6%) has been under pressure after federal prosecutors subpoenaed three medical device makers regarding their relationships with orthopedic surgeons... Shares of Johnson & Johnson (JNJ 67.05 -1.00), Stryker (SYK 44.35 -3.08) and Biomet (BMET 35.52 -3.51) have plummeted as a result of the DOJ's probe, with the latter two joining BIIB (-9.3%) and ZMH (-7.8%) - which could also receive a similar subpoena - as today's four worst performing S&P components...NYSE Adv/Dec 1952/1296, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1163/1838

[RawMaterials]

57. Closing Numbers and Blather

Dow 10503.76 -37.17 (-0.35%)
Nasdaq 1999.23 -6.44 (-0.32%)
S&P 500 1180.59 -0.82 (-0.07%)
10-Yr Bond 4.496% -0.62

NYSE Volume 2,176,276,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,685,612,000


Close: Stocks failed to extend the market's best performance in 2005, as the indices closed out Q1 in the same fashion as it began - to the downside... But selling activity was limited, as reflected in the less than 0.1% decline on the S&P and modest losses on both the Dow and Nasdaq, as it appears investors will wait for tomorrow's employment report to dictate whether or not yesterday's rally is sustainable...

With regards to today's market action, higher oil prices, some negative corporate news and apprehension ahead of Friday's payrolls data discouraged buyers from fully embracing today's decent economic data and falling bond yields... Crude oil futures surged 2.5% to $55.40/bbl ($+1.41) after a Goldman Sachs analyst said, "oil markets may have entered the early stages of a 'super spike' period" and subsequently raised the upper end of his multi-year estimates range from $80/bbl to $105/bbl... Worries about inadequate refining capacity and a weaker dollar also assisted in the commodity's gains, preventing buyers from jumping back into the market to extend widespread gains...

Meanwhile, with the market closely watching economic reports - especially ahead of tomorrow's employment report - today's relatively encouraging data did not provide enough of boost to attract buyers, as breadth figures were mixed all day and industry leadership finished in split fashion... Feb personal income was up 0.3% (consensus 0.4%) while personal spending was up 0.5% (consensus 0.5%), both decent from an economic standpoint... But investors focused more on one Fed Chairman Greenspan's favorites - the core PCE deflator, which rose 0.2% but did not rise as high as many had expected (+0.3%) and checked in below January's gain of 0.3%, easing inflation fears...

Another report on the radar was the March Chicago PMI, which unexpectedly surged 6.5 points to 69.2 (consensus 60.5) - a new 17-year high... But the report took a back seat to tomorrow's national ISM survey, which will provide a more general measure of manufacturing conditions... Health Care (-0.7%), the worst performing economic sector, lost ground after the Dept. of Justice subpoenaed three medical device makers - Johnson & Johnson (JNJ 67.16 -0.89), Stryker (SYK 44.64 -2.79) and Biomet (BMET 36.30 -2.73) - regarding certain consulting contracts with orthopedic surgeons...

Weakness in shares of Biogen Idec (BIIB 34.51 -3.84), amid confirmation of a third Tysabri-linked nerve disorder, also weighed on the sector... Other economic sectors under pressure were Financial, Consumer Staples, Industrials and Information Technology... The latter succumbed to profit taking in the wake of yesterday's 1.6% surge on the Nasdaq, as Disk Drive (+0.9%) was the only sub-sector finishing higher... Upside Q3 EPS and revenue guidance from Western Digital (WDC 12.73 +1.56) prompted Merrill Lynch to upgrade the disk drive maker to Buy from Neutral...

Pacing the way higher was Energy (+1.5%), benefiting from rising oil prices, while the Materials sector (+0.9%) was also strong amid increased copper price forecasts from Morgan Stanley, short covering in groups like paper, gold and steel and weakness in the dollar... The greenback extended yesterday's losses against both the euro (1.2961) and the yen (107.23) amid an unexpected rise in jobless claims, a better than expected inflation measure and arguably overbought conditions, as the dollar recorded its best quarter since 2001 with a gain of roughly 4.0% in 2005...

Retail (+0.5%) also showed modest strength, aided by speculation that JC Penney (JCP 51.99 +4.09) and Saks (SKS 18.03 +1.48) could be acquired, but Consumer Discretionary still finished flat... Interest-rate sensitive areas like Utility (+1.0%) and Homebuilding (+1.0%) also posted solid gains in the wake of falling bond yields... Treasurys closed higher, as yields on the 10-year note (+14/32) fell back through the 4.5% level (4.49%) for the first time since the FOMC's last meeting (Mar. 22), following an unexpected rise in jobless claims to 350K... The claims data, however, had little impact on equity markets ahead of tomorrow's more significant employment report...

Separately, Feb factory order rose 0.2%, a bit less than an expected 0.5% gain, but the predictability of the report has prevented it from having any influence on market activity...DJTA -0.5, DJUA +1.1, DOT -0.3, Nasdaq 100 -0.6, Russell 2000 -0.3, SOX -0.6, S&P Midcap 400 +0.4, XOI +1.5, NYSE Adv/Dec 1940/1366, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1283/1799

3:30PM : Range-bound trading persists as equities continue to drift sideways heading into the close... Meanwhile, investors will have their hands full sifting through a slew of economic data tomorrow... The March Employment Report (8:30 ET) will be the focal point, with special emphasis being placed on Non-farm Payrolls (consensus 220K) and Hourly Earnings (consensus +0.2%)... At 9:45 ET, investors will get a revised read on Consumer Sentiment (consensus 92.5) while at 10:00 ET, Mar ISM Index (consensus 54.9) and Feb Construction Spending (consensus +0.6%) will be released...

March Auto Sales (consensus 5.4 mln) and Truck Sales (consensus 7.8 mln) are also expected sometime after the market opens...NYSE Adv/Dec 2007/1281, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1256/1791