Bird flu hits central province, 195 locals show symptoms

[pandemic_1918]

Bird flu hits central province, 195 locals show symptoms

http://www.thanhniennews.com/healthy/?catid=8&newsid=5663

A commune in central Vietnam has been severely hit by the bird flu, with 195 patients showing symptoms and two children testing positive with the virus, reported a top provincial official.

Two siblings from the province’s Chau Hoa commune of Quang Binh province had tested positive for the H5N1 strain of bird flu, said Mai Xuan Thu, vice chairman of the provincial People’s Committee on March 20.

The older sister, Hoang Lan Huong, 13, died from the bird flu on March 9, while the brother, Hoang Trong Duong, 5, is in serious condition at the Hue Central Hospital.

It is not yet clear whether these people, some of who had reportedly eaten sick chickens, have the symptoms of the deadly bird flu or the normal flu.

Of the 195 patients showing symptoms, 108 are from Kinh Chau village while the rest live in other villages in Chau Hoa commune.......

[pnutchuck]

1. This really scares the shit out me

Throughout history, pandemics have killed entire populations. And now with trans Atlantic transportation and global trading, it's only a matter of time before this takes hold as a true pandemic of global proportions. And the most frightening thing about it is that there is nothing to protest, nothing to fight....

[Deja Q]

3. Incorrect.

There is something to fight: people hopping from country to country.

If we want to save our species (pardon me while I go laugh in hystrionics for a moment), we need some ways of ensuring people without the flu get the means to travel.

As the aeroplane is the fastest means of spreading an incureable death, I say we start there.

[pnutchuck]

5. Yes, but like most flus, the symptoms are not immediately present

Suppose an American tourist has traveled through Vietnam and into Cambodia to visit the buddhist shrine in Angkor Wat? On his way back, he stops in a village in Vietnam, or perhaps stays in a hotel where locals from the village work and perhaps eats some infected chicken or duck before going to the airport.

I was traveling between Bali, Thailand, and Amsterdam during the SARS scare. At the airport, every passenger was inspected by medical personell before being allowed to continue travel to the West. But SARS symptoms can take up to 3 days to show up and I had just finished traveling through small villages throughout Thailand and Indonesia. They weren't taking blood, just asking how we felt and taking our temperature. The time and cost factor for blood tests is far more than most of these countries can conceive and just not possible with the current rapid flight schedules. Had I contracted SARS only the day before, I could have easily spread it into Europe.

[pandemic_1918]

54. More Cases + Cambodia Again

New reported death in Cambodia

http://news.google.com/news?q=h5n1%20cambodia%20death&hl=en&lr=&sa=N&tab=wn

MANY cases going unreported.

In Quang Binh number of cases transferred to Hue also rising and one patient has walked out of hospital and authorities are trying to track him down (had high fever)

[Dogmudgeon]

6. It would be a disaster, though

The flu has an incubation period of 3-14 days, depending on the strain; some may even have longer periods. And there has never been a transportation control system that has 100% effectiveness. That system would only slow down transmission a little, but just about halt the transportation of medical personnel and supplies.

There are no truly untreatable viral illnesses -- even AIDS will eventually yield to a treatment that stops its "reverse transcription" of genetic material. Prion diseases (like Kuru, CJD and "Mad Cow") are the real tough puzzle to solve, but fortunately, prion diseases are very slow to develop. Because all viruses are fundamentally low-complexity genetic machines, there is no such thing as a cure, and the samething applies to prions, which are simpler protein "sculptures", some of which are infectious and pathogenic. Viruses write genetic information into the genome, which is passed down through the offspring of the survivors, and prions may work similarly, introducing new kinds of proteins into the brain and body.

Developing and producing vaccines for influenzae is a well-studied process, and there have also been a lot of developments in anti-viral drugs in the past decade. Prion diseases, unfortunately, are still difficult to treat. Shifting the focus to treatment offers the best chance of control.

--p!

[pandemic_1918]

34. Patients Transferred to Hue Isolation Ward

Situation in Quang Binh getting very hot very quickly. Patients are being transferred to Hue Central Hospital (80 miles away) isolation ward

http://news.google.ca/news?hl=en&ned=nz&ie=UTF-8&q=quang+binh+bird+flu

[fallout]

48. chickens have it bad in this country..... nt

[pandemic_1918]

8. News Blackout in Vietnam

This is really on the tip of the iceberg. There has been a news blackout on cases in southern Vietnam, where most of the poultry is raised. Outbreaks in poultry have been reported but not humans since the beginning of February.

The cases in Quang Binh have been developing since early February (Tet began on February 9)

http://news.google.com/news?hl=en&lr=&tab=wn&ie=UTF-8&q=bird+flu+quang+binh&btnG=Search+News

[Media_Lies_Daily]

20. The news blackout is very worrisome to me...

...that's how the Chinese tried to deal with SARS initially. The Chinese got lucky because with the proper measures Sars was able to be isolated and stopped.

I don't think we're going to be so lucky with the Avian Flu.

[pandemic_1918]

36. News Blackout Will Lift

Now that the news is out on Quang Binh, export more news on cases in South

http://news.google.com/news?hl=en&lr=&tab=wn&ie=UTF-8&q=h5n1+quang+binh&btnG=Search+News

[monkeyes2]

40. "News Blackout Will Lift"

I was in Southern China during the SARS outbreak... if this turns out to be handled in a similar fashion the news blackout will lift only once an American or other expat or a rich Asian businessman is transported to Hong Kong or Singapore with Avian flu. That was the final blow to the news blackout in China over SARS. As long only simple villagers are getting it a dying they can keep it mostly hidden and quiet.

[redqueen]

49. Hi monkeyes2

Welcome to DU.

[Harlequin]

50. Genetically speaking...

viruses don't effect everyone. Just large groups. Just as nature has a way of evolving kick-ass viruses, it also has a way of balancing them out.

Granted, I'd hate to be on the host-end of the virus, but still. It doesn't just get EVERYONE. it doesn't work like that.

[Dogmudgeon]

2. At a 70% case mortality rate ...

That's almost 140 people.

Maybe it will prompt someone to pay a little attention to the problem.

It's late in the normal flu season. That means, ideally, we have about eight months to get on top of this, although time seems to have run out for the people of Kinh Chau and the Chau Hoa commune.

--p!

[pandemic_1918]

9. Only 20% of Cases Detected with PCR Test

The PCR test in Vietnam only detects 20% of the H5N1 infected cases.

The monitoring is scandalously poor and WHO has no idea where H5N1 is and isn't

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/03160504/H5N1_Reliably_Wrong.html

[Dogmudgeon]

11. So there are probably 700+ people with H5N1 Bird flu?

Do they know whether the discrepancy the fault of the test, or a lack of training by field techs?

--p!

[pandemic_1918]

21. Testing Problems in Vietnam

The tests themselves lack sensitivity and they are also not run properly. Details were made public on the first 7 false negatives. The samples were positive in Tokyo. When retested in Ho Chi Minh City, 4 of the 7 were positive, indicating the original test simply was not run properly. However, 3 repeated as negatives, indicating the PCR test in Vietnam lacked sensitivity. However, there are probably more false negatives due to improper sample collection or storage, so even the Tokyo data is an estimate of the minimal number of false negatives.

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/03150502/H5N1_Negative_78.html

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/03160501/H5N1_Negative_More.html

[darkstar]

12. slightly OT here

(but I noticed the recombinomics link, have followed your posts on this, and you seem to track these events losely.)

What is your take on the WSN/33 uptick in South Korea? Is it still under investigation? Has anyone at WHO stepped forward to lend credence to the "reporting error"? Was there any follow-up assay beyond the initial reporting of the 6 pigs? What did it find?

Thanks in advance. Any useful links re: recent, definitive statements would be appreciated.

on edit: On google search, found older DU thread, and your notice re: article in Nature. But most questions above still hold. Google news search seems to only kick up variants on orignal story, not updates, and then not even those since roughly March 10.

[Media_Lies_Daily]

18. Here's a recent, very detailed article article that you may find....

...of interest:

On a wing and a prayer
<http://observer.guardian.co.uk/magazine/story/0,11913,1440214,00.html>

QUOTES:

Since the present strain of H5N1 emerged in Vietnam in late 2003, Dr Van and her counterparts at the tropical diseases institute in Ho Chi Minh City have treated 35 people for bird flu and recorded 18 fatalities - 13 of them since December. Including Thailand, the next-worst infected country, and Cambodia - which reported its first death last month - there have been 46 deaths in southeast Asia since the epidemic began. Those deaths represent 70 per cent of all known avian-flu infections. In contrast, Sars (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome), the corona virus which struck Hong Kong and Vietnam in 2002, had a mortality rate of just 10 per cent. No wonder scientists are spooked.

'We think it is only a matter of time before H5N1 or a related strain of the virus becomes infectious between humans,' Professor John Oxford, a virologist at the Queen Mary and Westfield School of medicine in east London, had warned me before I embarked for Vietnam. 'When that happens it will be too late to do anything about it, which is why we have to prepare now. Forget al-Qaeda, the biggest terrorist threat we face today is Mother Nature.'

....snip....

he ducks are not the only worry, of course. The even bigger unknown is the virus itself. The problem is no one knows how fast and in what direction it is mutating. Avian flu is a type A orthomyxovirus (there are also B and C types, but though they can cause illness they are rarely fatal in humans). Like every influenza virus, H5N1 has hundreds of microscopic spikes protruding from its surface. Most consist of a viral protein called haemagglutinin, which has the unique ability to latch onto respiratory cells and invade them. The other spikes consist of enzymes, neuraminidase, which help the virus spread. It is from the initials of these two proteins - H and N - that the avian flu virus gets its name.

What makes H5N1 and other influenza viruses so dangerous is that they are shape-shifters, possessing the rare ability to swap proteins with other influenza viruses to create new influenza viruses. The reason is that, unlike animal cells, which are coded by DNA, the influenza virus consists of RNA and does not possess an accurate proofreading mechanism to correct its genetic mistakes.

[darkstar]

24. Thanks !

:toast:

[pandemic_1918]

22. WSN/33 Update

No one is talking about the WSN/33 data. Korea reports more positive samples, but confirmatory labs are dragging feet. WHO has indicated they will say something, but have not.

There are many problems in the Korean situation.

Updates would be here

http://www.recombinomics.com/in_the_news.html

[darkstar]

25. Thanks !

:toast:

However, I think their last update was Mar 10.

More positive samples? Can you link me to that info or are you getting that from subscription only sites?

In addition, your observations re: the nature of the problems in the Korean situatuation would really be appreciated if you have the time.

Thanks again, and thanks in advance.

ds

[pandemic_1918]

27. Data From Korea

Data is directly from lab in Korea.

There are many problems in Korea, Animal quarantine would like problem to go away, as would WHO. As far as the reported spread is concerned, it has just been from farm to farm. No reports on human cases and no explanations on how WSN/33 moved from lab to farm.

I suspect that sooner or later this will be confirmed, but at this point it looks like later.

[darkstar]

28. Thanks again !

:toast:

[depakid]

13. The case fatality rate will drop

as better surveillance and diagnostics detect more people who have it- and as the virus becomes "more human" looking. Right now, people who have it and aren't dying get passed over, so the 70% figure is an inaccurate reflection of what's actually going on.

As a purely speculative guess, I'm thinking somewhere in the range of 10 - 15% in the eventual breakout is likely- that's still 2 to 3 times more deadly than the usual nasty A strain.

[pandemic_1918]

23. Over 600 Cases Tested in Thailand

Over 600 respiratory tested in Thailand that were negative for H5N1 (PCR and/or antibody)

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/01050502/Thai_Case_Fatality_Missed.html

[Silverhair]

43. The 1918 flu pandemic was about 5% and killed 675,000 Americans.

That was on a population base of about 100 million. It selectively killed the 16-40 years olds way more than the other groups, with the 16-25 years olds being the peak of fatalities.

[radwriter0555]

4. You mean like SARS?

What happened with that one?

I'm not buying into the hysteria yet.

[Dogmudgeon]

7. No need to "buy into the hysteria"

But our public health officials are either being ignored or (less commonly) are themselves clueless. What we need is more attention to all public health issues. The proverb "an ounce of prevention is better than a pound of cure" is only inaccurate because it should be more like an ounce of prevention to a TON of cure.

--p!

[Media_Lies_Daily]

14. Do a search on "bird flu" or "avian flu" on the Google news category....

...you'll be amazed at the number of US states that show up as taking measures to prepare for a potential pandemic. Also try using the word "pandemic" in your search string.

The CDC is also following this VERY closely.

The major problem that I see is that flu vaccines work only against those flus which have already been detected. This virus is mutating rather rapidly, and immunologists have no idea where to start making a vaccine against it.

[spotbird]

10. The flu comes every year.

That's certain. New flu strains usually start in Asia. What's not to get?

[Media_Lies_Daily]

16. SARS turned out not to be very infectious, human to human, and...

...the death rate was about 9%. Medical personnel learned that by isolating the cases or quarantining certain areas thatthey could control the spread of the disease. Although the number of deaths was relatively low, the economic impact of having to shut down entire borders was immense.

The Avian Flu's death rate is in the range of 70-75%. Additionally, I think that we're just now seeing that it is mutating to a point where it is becoming very infectious for humans. Primarily carried by birds, it was found to have made the leap to pigs last year, and to large jungle cats this year. In the past, cats have very rarely been affected by influenza viruses...but this one has now become fatal for cats.

What makes this virus so difficult to pinpoint is that it can infect humans from a variety of means...not just via the lungs, but other organs as well.

Here's a figure for you...birds can carry up to 100,000 different strains of bird flu...and there are literally billions of birds. That means that the chances of one of those strains becoming very infectious towards humans is pretty high.

[nonconformist]

39. SARS death rate is 9-15%

This avian flu death rate is 70-75%.

Research the 1918 flu epidemic. That was an avian strain.

[robcon]

51. Hysteri, IMO

I think your claim that "This avian flu death rate is 70-75%" is the kind of hysterical 'results' that mislead us about SARS. We don't, and you don't, know the death rate from this flu.

[Silverhair]

44. SARS was stopped by very agressive gov't measures.

It didn't just go away.

You position is like claiming that a fire wasn't a threat because the fire department put it out while it was only one corner of the house that was ablaze. The fact that it didn't spread to the rest of the house, (Never mind that the reason it didn't spread was due to the fire department.) is shown as proof that it wasn't anything to be concerned about.

Of course, if nothing had been done, the same people would be howling about the gov't NOT doing anything.

[Athame]

15. deadly bird flu or the normal flu?

Isn't this the deadly petri dish that can create the pandemic? If many people are infected with a common flu virus and also become infected with the bird flu, then the virus can recombine or resort (I am no scientist, just trying to follow the story because my sister had SARS) to form the commuicable bird flu that will spread from person to person. When 195 people are showing flu symptoms and they are from various villages and the symptoms may take days to weeks to develop...is it possible to control any longer?

[Media_Lies_Daily]

17. I think the answer to your last question is "no". How many people...

...have traveled in and out of Vietnam since the bird flu was first suspected to be infecting humans? How many birds infected with the disease have been sold for food? If pigs and cats can be infected and killed by this virus, how quickly will it spread worldwide?

If you do a search on Google news for "bird flu", or "avian flu", or "pandemic", you'll find a number of countries are beginning to openly discuss what could happen should avian flu strike. You will also find that many US states are beginning to prepare, at least mentally, for the possibility of having to deal with a lot of very sick people.

IMHO, that new figure of 195 people concerns me a great deal. Despite the culling of millions of birds over the last three years, the bird flu appears ready to infect humans on a large scale.

[Amfortas]

35. Sorry to hear about your sister ......... Is she ok ? How was her experien

How was her experience ?

[Athame]

42. Thanks, she has recovered

but it took nearly a year before she was feeling well. For months she could barely talk and could only stand for a short while before she collapsed.

She travels a lot for her work and had taken a group of sales associates on an incentive trip to Hawaii in February just before the whole thing really broke into the news. Within two days after return twelve of the sixteen on the trip had become really sick. My sister lives in California, but the rest of the group live in Washington.

My sister and one of the others (who lives in Washington) came down with a fever of 104-5* and a very sudden pneumonia that put them in the hospital. The pneumonia did not respond to any of the drugs they gave her and she kept getting worse, coming very close to death. She was hospitalized for about two weeks the first time, but nobody mentioned SARS at first. She was not even tested for it until about three weeks after the trip. Then she was listed as a suspicious case of "unknown" origin and then confirmed as SARS and later downgraded to unconfirmed. They never investigated the group or checked the other passengers on the plane, as far as she knows. And there was no follow-up with the CDC, though there was with her doctor.

What I learned through the whole thing was that WHO and CDC were not putting out accurate reports about what was going on in California and Hawaii, at least. I don't imagine we will get the news we need about the bird flu until it is too late.

[trudyco]

19. Does the drops you can take to reduce the flu symptoms be

used on any flu, including avian flu?

My nephew had the regular flu and was given the drops the first couple of days. It really worked. His flu was mild. I just don't understand if it has to be tailored to a specific strain of flu, like vaccines, or if it is generic to all flus.

[iamjoy]

26. Reducing Symptoms

is not the same as a "cure"

[trudyco]

37. I realize that. This scares me and I want to know what I may be

able to do for me and mine if it becomes a Pandemic. Does the flu reducing treatment work generically, and therefore may save lives in the avian flu?

Is that what tabiflu is?

If so, what is the shelf life?

[Moderator]

29. kick to combine

[Lori Price CLG]

30. Bird flu hits central province, 195 locals show symptoms

Bird flu hits central province, 195 locals show symptoms

A commune in central Vietnam has been severely hit by the bird flu, with 195 patients showing symptoms and two children testing positive with the virus, reported a top provincial official.

<snip>

BTW, for more articles, etc., Flu 'Oddities'
http://www.legitgov.org/flu_oddities.html

Lori Price

[necso]

31. I would like to see the propagation models for this

(in general for the differing types of strains (eg, highly lethal and directly transmittable human to human, etc) -- and by existing strains, if possible).

It would be nice to get some bounds on when the problem might become an issue in my neck of the woods.

But I have zero expectations of getting any useful information about this -- or anything else of potential importance.

I have no idea how this will evolve, but I do remember when another bird virus (not contagious to humans) was huge here in SoCal (and in other places here in the US). And the West Nile virus is relatively commonplace now -- without being directly transmittable human to human (as I understand it). Of course, the West Nile represents a threat only to a small percentage of those who contact it -- and certain varieties of this bird flu have much higher mortality rates.

And I seem to remember that when I first became interested in the West Nile, it seemed that there was much more concern for what the virus might do to livestock (horses especially) than people. I expect a similar lack of concern about the consequences for people (regular people, anyway) this time.

We have little enough intrinsic worth to the neocons. And if the past is any guide, pretty much no matter what happens, the neocons will continue to avoid the consequences of their (nearly ubiquitous) incompetence.

Oh well. I wasn't planning on living for forever. And if nature is going to strike us down, she certainly has been provoked.

It is, however, going to gall me considerably to hear the fundies scream "Will of God", though... After all, how the hell would they know? -- It's the devil, not God, that they are listening to. (Or at least I would so assert if I believed in such things.)

[pandemic_1918]

32. Influenza Transmission - Look At California

H5N1 is working on getting transmission up to H3N2 speed (both are influenza A). To see how fast influenza A can travel, just look at the data for A/California/7. It was first isolated in Santa Clara, California at the end of September, 2004. It didn't show up on the CDC antigen characterization reports until the first week of 2005. Within a couple of weeks it had taken over the country and was killing off clusters of students.

http://news.google.com/news?q=california%20H3N2&hl=en&lr=&sa=N&tab=wn

All of this happened WITH a vaccine.

H5N1 spread will be quick and it won't be pretty.

No vaccine is available and those stashes of Tamiflu are pretty iffy.

[necso]

33. I have no doubt

that some strain of this bird flu could propagate very rapidly (perhaps in just weeks or months, once it really takes off) and with grievous effects.

What I would like to see is the models that are probably being used right now (somewhere by somebody "in the know"). I have rather a hard time believing that such models do not exist, as they seem a potentially useful tool. (And pretty much a mandatory line of research for those considering how to attempt to control a contagious outbreak -- of just about any kind.)

And Tamiflu seems something like wishful thinking to me -- but I suppose that anybody who is anybody will have it available to them. (So I'm out.)

I am no expert, but I seem to remember that under duress (at least) certain "cures" have been experimented with for other virulent viruses -- ones that might put a premium on those who survive the illness. That, however, is unlikely to concern me directly, I believe. And it is possible that some vaccine could be developed (in small quantities at least) once a specific strain becomes identified as the pandemic one. Of course, the strain could always mutate -- or a new one could emerge -- or an ever-changing mix could be in play at the same time, complicating the picture (somewhat like more familiar forms of the "flu").

It is a subject of some interest, but our fate rests largely in the hands of the disinterested and the incompetent -- nothing new there -- and so it is mostly a curiosity and not a concern for me. -- I generally reserve concern for things that I might be able to do some little thing about.

In this matter, I really look only to (potentially) becoming a victim. And one can always hope that it will kill quickly and with minimum suffering -- regardless of whether or not this can be reasonably expected.

[Silverhair]

45. Scientific American, March 2005, has good article on disease transmission.

Not specific to the flu, but it is being used as a model for flu transmission studies.

[trudyco]

38. Is Tamiflu the flu symptom reducing medicine?

What is its shelf life? Can we try to get some now for next year or would it be ineffective by then?

[Mojorabbit]

41. It is supposed to help

You could ask your doc for a rx. Can't hurt. There was another thread recently where someone posted a link where you could get it online. I imagine if you do a search it will come up. I have no idea what the shelf life is but if other countries are stockpiling it it must be able to be stored for a bit.

[megatherium]

53. I think I just had A/California.

Fever of up to 102 degrees, lasting about four days; a cough and fatigue. One of my colleagues had this a week prior to what I had. Since he had the vaccine, I infer this was the A/California strain that is a large fraction of this year's influenza caseload. (I believe I heard on NPR that this is 45% of the influenza this year, and it is not in the vaccine.) I'm in the Louisville, Kentucky area.

[Cadfael]

46. 195 Vietnamese being tested for avian flu, report says

Mar 21, 2005 (CIDRAP News) – A Vietnamese newspaper has reported that 195 people in an area affected by H5N1 avian influenza have suspicious symptoms and are being tested for the disease.

Than Nien News reported yesterday that the possible cases are in the Chau Hoa commune in Quang Binh province in central Vietnam. A 5-year-old boy from the commune tested positive for avian flu last week. Yesterday the paper said that tests had confirmed avian flu in the boy's 13-year-old sister, who died Mar 9. However, another Vietnamese news agency said on Mar 19 that the girl had not been tested.

The commune "has been severely hit by the bird flu, with 195 patients showing symptoms and two children testing positive with the virus," Than Nien News reported. The information was attributed to Mai Xuan Thu, vice chairman of the provincial People's Committee. <snip>

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/cidrap/content/influenza/avianflu/news/mar2105avian.html

[pandemic_1918]

47. Update on Cluster Size

The size of the cluster will be smaller than 195, but it still may be the largest H5N1 cluster reported to date

http://news.google.com/news?hl=en&lr=&tab=wn&ie=UTF-8&q=bird+flu+195

[redqueen]

52. This is starting to really scare me.

:(