STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday 16 March

[ozymandius]

Wednesday March 16, 2005

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 3 YEARS, 310 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 4 YEARS, 93 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 3 YEARS, 149 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1207
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

---

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

---

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON March 15, 2005

Dow... 10,745.10 -59.41 (-0.55%)
Nasdaq... 2,034.98 -16.06 (-0.78%)
S&P 500... 1,197.75 -9.08 (-0.75%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.54% +0.03 +0.58%)
Gold future... 441.40 -0.20 (-0.05%)





GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie

---

PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

[whistle]

1. Trade deficit up, dollar down, federal budget deficit up, war costs

...up, war corruption up, corporate corruption up, prices up, government lies way up! Still, the stock market is up....go figure????

[punpirate]

2. These days, corruption...

... and the market are on a fast track together....

After the last few years, I'm surprised we don't see line items in annual reports for graft, bribery, political influence and creative accounting.... :)

[AnneD]

36. Sounds like

pump and dump to me...

[UpInArms]

3. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 81.72 Change -0.40 (-0.49%)

US Policy, Not Asia Ctrl Bks, To Drive Dollar - Stiglitz

http://sg.biz.yahoo.com/050315/15/3r9k0.html

HONG KONG (Dow Jones)--The future path of the U.S. dollar is likely to depend much less on the actions of Asian central banks than on U.S. domestic policies, the economist Joseph Stiglitz said Tuesday.

Indications that Asian central banks are reducing their large purchases of U.S. dollar securities, especially government bonds, have roiled the currency markets in recent weeks. The U.S. has also asked China to revalue its currency, the yuan or renminbi, in hopes that would narrow the U.S. trade deficit with China and thus reduce downward pressure on the dollar.

But Stiglitz said the U.S. should look at home for the root causes of the dollar's weakness: a huge current account deficit that can be financed only by increasingly large foreign purchases of U.S. securities.

A country's current account deficit is by definition the gap between how much it invests and how much it saves, Stiglitz said, arguing that since domestic savings in the U.S. are so low, capital inflows have to be large.

"These are basic economic identities," he told a conference organized by Credit Suisse First Boston. "The heart of the problem is domestic savings. And underlying that are the huge fiscal deficits."

...more...

Blowout TIC Data Fails To Have Much Underlying Strength

http://www.dailyfx.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=339&Itemid=39

excerpt:

The dollar took off against the majors as foreign purchases of US assets increased a whopping $91.5 billion. Based upon the report, capital inflow in the month of January was more than sufficient to fund the deficit for the same period. Demand for corporate stocks remains strong, but the most notable increase in demand was for US treasuries. Purchases of treasuries soared from $8.3 billion in Dec to $30.7 billion in Jan. Looking at the details though, we still remain concerned. 75% of the treasury purchases (or $23 billion) were from the Caribbean, which can be very volatile since it represents hedge fund activity. Central banks on the other hand continued their liquidation. Japan was a big seller, disposing $10.2 billion dollars, marking the biggest dumping of treasuries in at least 6 months. It was the second consecutive liquidation and the fourth month out of six that Japan has been a net seller. China also bought the smallest amount of US treasuries in at least 6 months, increasing purchases by a paltry $0.7 billion. South Korea sold US treasuries for the second month in a row, which confirms the government's latest comment that Asia can no longer fund US consumption indefinitely. Today's TIC report is clear proof that the underlying trend of reserve diversification is indeed occurring. If this trend continues or exacerbates, the dollar could face further downward pressure as possible one-off purchases from hedge funds into the dollar's strong rally during the month of January may not last. Hedge fund activity can turn on a dime, especially given the euro's rebound in February.

...more...

Only A Blockbuster TIC Number Can Help Save The Dollar

http://www.dailyfx.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=322&Itemid=39

For the first time in four trading days, the dollar has finally managed to muster a rally against the euro. With no US economic data on the calendar today, the dollar has benefited from EURUSD profit taking as well as modest optimism ahead of tomorrow's big day. Today's lull in the markets can be best described as the calm before the storm as the market exerts cautious positioning ahead of the US' Treasury International Capital flow report, retail sales, the Empire manufacturing survey and the German ZEW survey. If you take away the large upside outlier forecast from the 5 analysts who contributed to Bloomberg's survey, the estimates for the TIC data range from a low of $51 billion to a high of $65 billion. With the trade deficit for the month of January at -$58.3 billion, at bare minimum, we would need the release to come in greater than $60 billion for it to have any chance of helping the dollar rally. A number less than $58.3 billion will most likely cause dollar bulls to run for the exit, as it indicates that foreign purchases of US assets have not been sufficient in funding the deficit. A weak number along with selling of US Treasuries by Japan or China could cause an even larger colossal move lower in the dollar. Yet it will probably take a number greater than $70 billion to trigger a meaningful reversal in the EURUSD rather than just a short-term dollar relief rally.

...more...

That sinking feeling. Oil, Trade weigh heavy on the dollar

http://www.dailyfx.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=329&Itemid=39

Few friends for the greenback these days as higher oil, higher trade deficits and lower expectations of additional Fed rate hikes all conspired to bring the dollar down another 250 points this week. The marquee event of the week - the US Trade Balance numbers released on Friday confirmed the dollars bears worst suspicions by printing at -58.3 Billion versus expectations of -56.8 Billion. The number may only become progressively worse in the upcoming months as tariffs on Chinese textiles are lifted. Eventually China is projected to gain 70% share of the US market up from the current 16%.

The only ray of hope for dollar bulls is for the FX market to change its focus as the twin deficits theme gets tired. A decline in oil is likely to bring the bid back to the dollar, though we caution about jumping too early on that move as there is always a considerable amount of lag between the change in oil and dollar prices. In the near term the dollar decline is likely to continue as traders will want to test the recent all time euro highs. Only a super strong TICS numbers can stop the momentum and we will have to see if foreigners still have faith in the greenback

<snipping lots of great charts>

The world's favorite anti-dollar continued its winning ways despite printing mostly lackluster data all week long. One inadvertent source of support came from Japanese Prime Minister Kozumi, who casually remarked that Japan may diversify its assets - a comment that was immediately denied, backtracked and spun by Watanabe and Tanigaki who must have been horrified by the PM's candor. Though the euro hardly needed the extra help. As we wrote on Wednesday, "With sleet and snow pounding Wall Street and oil once again above the $55/bbl is it any wonder that the dollar is weak?" Putting the final nail in the coffin was Friday's Trade Deficit which managed to exceed even the most pessimistic predictions showing no signs of leveling off.

One other factor that aided the euro bulls was the better than expected German Trade Balance for February. The number did indeed surprise to the upside and some traders took it as a sign that export driven EZ economy can withstand the high euro. We don't think so. In January both the euro and oil prices receded significantly providing exports with a dual boost. We'd like to see how they perform after March's vertical rises in both markets before we accept the high-euro-doesn't-matter thesis. In the meantime EZ data should continue to drag but question going forward is will it matter? Given past action, not likely

...more...

Great 'toon again, Ozy!

Have a Great Day Marketeers!

[UpInArms]

9. Dollar weaker as Q4 current-account deficit hits record

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38427.3630983218-833210478&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - The dollar softened after the Commerce Department reported that the U.S. current-account deficit widened by 13 percent to a record $187.9 billion in the fourth quarter. The deficit amounted to a record 6.3 percent of gross domestic product and was steeper than the estimate for a $181.7 billion deficit produced by economists polled by MarketWatch. The euro traded at $1.3407, up 0.7 percent on the session and contrasting with $1.3388 before the news. The dollar traded at 103.98 yen, down 0.5 percent and contrasting with 104.06 yen beforehand.

[UpInArms]

14. Dollar losses mount on record deficit (gotta read these numbers!)

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B0E66D084%2D04BD%2D47B3%2D9889%2D3787585135E1%7D&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - The dollar's losses intensified after the Commerce Department announced that the U.S. current account struck a record high of $187.9 billion in the fourth quarter.

The deficit amounted to a record 6.3 percent of gross domestic product and exceeded the average estimate of $181.7 billion of economists surveyed by MarketWatch.

<snip>

For all of 2004, the current account deficit grew to a record $665.5 billion, totaling a record 5.7 percent of gross domestic product.

<snip>

Foreign-owned assets in the United States increased $460.2 billion in the fourth quarter and $1.4 trillion in 2004.

...more...

[UpInArms]

4. Tough N. America market to hurt GM earns in Q1, FY05

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38427.3193646991-833206398&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- General Motors (GM) lowered its earnings outlook for the first quarter and full year Wednesday to reflect weak sales and production volumes in North America, a tougher pricing environment and a more car-based sales mix. The Dow component now sees a loss before items of about $1.50 per share in the first quarter, well below its prior target of breakeven results or better. For the full year, the world's largest car maker now anticipates earnings before items of $1 to $2 per share, short of a previous view for a profit of $4 to $5 per share. The company also forecast negative operating cash flow of about $2 billion in 2005, before the effects of the Fiat settlement and GM Europe's restructuring. Its previous target was positive cash flow of $2 billion for the year. The stock closed Tuesday at $33.72, down 1.8 percent.

7:34am 03/16/05 GM CUTS NA VEHICLE PRODUCTION EST TO 1.18M FROM 1.25M

[UpInArms]

5. Today's Reports

Mar 16 8:30 AM
Building Permits Feb
report -
briefing.com 2060K
market 2070K
last report 2132K
revised -

Mar 16 8:30 AM
Current Account Q4
report -
briefing.com -$182.0B
market -$183.0B
last report -$164.7B
revised -

Mar 16 8:30 AM
Housing Starts Feb
report -
briefing.com 1970K
market 2030K
last report 2159K
revised -

Mar 16 9:15 AM
Capacity Utilization Feb
report -
briefing.com 79.4%
market 79.2%
last report 79.0%
revised -

Mar 16 9:15 AM
Industrial Production Feb
report -
briefing.com 0.5%
market 0.4%
last report 0.0%
revised -

[UpInArms]

6. 8:30 EST Reports In

8:30am 03/16/05 FOREIGN-OWNED ASSETS IN U.S. RISE BY $460B IN Q4

8:30am 03/16/05 U.S. Q4 TRADE DEFICIT RISES TO $183.5B

8:30am 03/16/05 U.S. JAN. HOUSING STARTS REVISED UP TO 2.18M VS. 2.16M

8:30am 03/16/05 U.S. 2004 CURRENT ACCOUNT RISES TO RECORD 5.7% OF GDP

8:30am 03/16/05 U.S. 2004 CURRENT ACCOUNT RISES TO RECORD $665.9B

8:30am 03/16/05 U.S. FEB. BUILDING PERMITS FALL 2.7% TO 2.07M RATE

8:30am 03/16/05 U.S. Q4 CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT GROWS TO RECORD $187.9B

8:30am 03/16/05 U.S. FEB HOUSING STARTS RISE 0.5% TO 21-YEAR HIGH 2.20M

[UpInArms]

10. 9:15 Reports In

9:15am 03/16/05 U.S. FEB. CAPACITY UTILIZATION HIGHEST SINCE DEC. 01

9:15am 03/16/05 U.S. FEB. CAPACITY UTILIZATION 79.4 VS. REV 79.2 JAN.

9:15am 03/16/05 U.S. JAN. INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT UP REV 0.1% VS. UNCH PREV

9:15am 03/16/05 U.S. FEB. INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION UP 0.3%, MEETS FORECAST

U.S. Feb. industrial production up 0.3%, meets forecast

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38427.3855170139-833212253&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - U.S. industrial production rose 0.3 percent in February, the Federal Reserve reported Wednesday. Capacity utilization rose to 79.4 percent from a revised 79.2 percent in January. Economists were expecting production to rise 0.3 percent and capacity utilization to increase to 79.2 percent. Output rose a revised 0.1 percent in January, slightly stronger than the initial estimate that output was unchanged.

[UpInArms]

17. something funny about that industrial production report

auto sales were weak and automakers are cutting production - but the rise is attributed to higher auto numbers?

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BE62D6A10%2DDF1C%2D45D0%2DB323%2DC29BA1640F56%7D&siteid=mktw

U.S. industrial output rises 0.3% in Feb.
Capacity utilization highest rate since Dec. 2001

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - A jump in the output of autos fueled higher industrial production in February, the Federal Reserve said Wednesday.

Industrial production rose 0.3 percent in February, in line with economists' expectations. Output rose a revised 0.1 percent in January. Read the report

Industrial output has now risen for five consecutive months and is up 3.5 percent year-over-year.

Capacity utilization rose to 79.4 percent in February from a revised 79.2 percent in January. It's the highest utilization rate since December 2001. Economists were expecting 79.2 percent. See Economic Calendar

...more...

The Fed Reserve is "cooking" those numbers (jmho)

[ozymandius]

23. making lemonade out of lemons

Output does not necessarily equate to sales. Since output is consistent with sales projections, I'd say that the projections are flawed. It is GM, after all, that stated they plan to have a breakout year in 2006 with a new line of large trucks and SUVs. These are their projections based on old data. Meanwhile newer data says that sales of these new breakout products are not selling anymore - verified by consistent loss of marketshare of all three major U.S. car manufacturers.

And, yes, I'd say that the Fed report has cooked those numbers to present a better picture than the one that is truly warranted.

[jmcgowanjm]

29. A jump in the output of autos fueled higher industrial production-history

GM loses $1.50 /share

GM bonds yielding 9.3%

At $2.50/gal, an SUV will cost $70+ to fill.

GM is a dead corporate/man walking.

And bushco has STILL not been asked
an oil question!

Oil at $55.70/bbl!!!

[ozymandius]

35. GM Cuts '05 Earnings Outlook by 80 Pct

DETROIT (Reuters) - General Motors Corp. (NYSE:GM - news) on Wednesday warned its 2005 earnings will be as much as 80 percent below its prior forecast due to slumping North American auto sales, sending its shares down 12 percent to a 13-year low.

"GM North America is, simply put, our 800-pound gorilla, and today's announcement shows how important it is that we get this business right," Chairman and Chief Executive Rick Wagoner told analysts and reporters on a conference call.

GM, the world's largest carmaker that has been steadily losing ground in its key North American market, also said it expects to post a first-quarter loss, compared with its prior forecast to break even or post a profit in the quarter.

-cut-

Credit-rating agency Standard & Poor's said it had revised its outlook on GM to negative from stable, setting the stage for a downgrade of GM to junk status.

more...

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=580&ncid=580&e=1&u=/nm/20050316/bs_nm/autos_gm_dc

[jmcgowanjm]

56. What was that Russian carmaker the US ridiculed in '85?

It wasn't the Zil was it?

[UpInArms]

7. U.S. Q4 current account deficit grows to record $187.9B

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38427.354312037-833209596&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The U.S. current account deficit widened by 13 percent to a record $187.9 billion in the fourth quarter of 2004, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday. The deficit amounted to a record 6.3 percent of gross domestic product. For all of 2004, the current account deficit grew to a record $665.5 billion, totaling a record 5.7 percent of GDP. Economists expected the current account to rise to $181.7 billion in the fourth quarter. The increase in the current account in the fourth quarter was largely due to a larger deficit in trade of goods, which rose to $183.5 billion. Foreign-owned assets in the United States increased $460.2 billion in the fourth quarter and $1.4 trillion in 2004.

[UpInArms]

8. U.S. Feb. housing starts up 0.5% to 21-year high 2.195M

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38427.3542360764-833209580&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Construction of new U.S. houses rose 0.5 percent in February to a seasonally adjusted 2.195 million annualized units, the highest rate in 21 years, the Commerce Department estimated Wednesday. Starts of new single-family homes rose by 0.3 percent to a record 1.775 million seasonally adjusted annual rate. Economists were looking for starts to fade to 2.08 million. Building permits for new housing fell 2.7 percent to a 2.074 million annual rate, while permits for single-family homes dropped by 1.2 percent to a 1.621 million annual rate. January's new construction was revised higher to 2.183 million from the 2.159 million reported last month.

[UpInArms]

11. pre-opening blather

briefing.com

9:00AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -3.8. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -4.5. Futures trade deteriorates to its worst levels of the morning, setting the stage for a lower open for stocks, as nervousness sets in surrounding GM bond issues after it warned and ahead of another round of economic data... At 9:15 ET, Feb Industrial Production (consensus +0.4%) and Capacity Utilization (consensus 79.2%) will be released... Separately, Bear Stearns (BSC) has handily beaten analysts' Q1 forecasts while reports suggest AIG may now sever all ties with outgoing CEO Maurice Greenberg

8:34AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -0.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +1.0. Futures trade holds relatively steady following economic data, still indicating a rather subdued start for the indices... Q4 Current Account figures have come in higher than expected at a record -$187.9 bln, versus -$164.7 bln in Q3, while Feb. housing starts rose 0.5% to a better than expected 2.195 mln units, from a revised 2.183 mln, while Feb. building permits fell 2.7% to 2.074 mln units, roughly in line with forecasts...

Treasurys have held relatively stable, with the 10-year note up 8 ticks yielding 4.50% while the dollar has continued to slip...

8:00AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +0.6. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +2.5. Futures market versus fair value suggesting a lackluster open for the cash market as investors weigh falling oil prices with a warning from GM and uncertainty surrounding today's economic data... While OPEC has agreed to raise current oil production by 500K barrels a day, pushing oil prices below $55/bbl, General Motors (GM) now sees a Q1 loss of about $1.50 versus a previous target of breakeven or better...

ino.com

The June NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Tuesday's decline, which marked a key reversal down. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends Tuesday's decline, January's low crossing at 1496.50 is the next downside target. Closes above last Monday's high crossing at 1564.50 are needed to open the door for a possible test of February's high crossing at 1574.50. The June NASDAQ 100 was up 5.00 pt. at 1519 as of 5:29 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to higher opening by the NASDAQ composite index later this morning.

The June S&P 500 index was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of Tuesday's decline but remains below this year's uptrend line crossing near 1207.57. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Tuesday's breakout below this year's uptrend line confirmed that a short-term top. The door has been opened the door for a possible test of the reaction low crossing at 1189. The June S&P 500 Index was up 2.80 pts. at 1205.50 as of 5:33 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins later this morning.

[UpInArms]

12. 9:33 EST markets are open and miserable

Dow 10,693.45 -51.65 (-0.48%)
Nasdaq 2,029.82 -5.16 (-0.25%)
S&P 500 1,194.44 -3.31 (-0.28%)
10-Yr Bond 4.523 -0.19 (-0.42%)

NYSE Volume 26,075,000
Nasdaq Volume 80,124,000

9:17AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -3.8. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -6.5. Futures trade holds relatively steady following economic data, still indicating a lower open for the indices... Feb industrial production just checked in up 0.3% (consensus +0.4%) while Capacity Utilization 79.4% came in slightly higher than forecasts of 79.2% but remain below the 80% inflection point typically associated with inflationary pressures

dollar

Last trade 81.50 Change -0.62 (-0.75%)

Settle 82.12 Settle Time 00:36

Open 82.12 Previous Close 82.12

High 82.24 Low 81.48

Last tick: 2005-03-16 08:57:38 ET
30-min delayed quote.

[BurgherHoldtheLies]

13. Wolfowitz to head World Bank: What will this mean economically?

I appreciate the financial advice/info posted by the "regulars" in the thread and always make an effort to check this thread when I'm viewing DU.

Just announced in LBN that Wolfowitz will head the World Bank...any insight from the regular posters in this thread re: this news?

[ozymandius]

16. Wolfowitz will shill, as usual.

The World Bank pretends to help struggling countries. The cost of doing business with the World Bank means that a nation must often privatize its resources, like water. This is back-door colonialization of emerging and near-failing nations. I expect to see more of this with Wolfowitz shilling for western industrialized interests.

What it means for the U.S. exactly, I cannot begin to imagine the scope of his influence.

[ozymandius]

15. WrapUp by Ike Iossif

THE TECHNICAL PICTURE

-lotsa charts-

Summary

All the indices have held at support, which is bullish on its face. However, every indicator that I follow points to yet lower prices. Given the divergence between price and the underlying weakness, I would venture to say that tomorrow will be a key day. If on Wednesday we get another reversal to the upside, I would expect the advance to last into the end of the week. Otherwise, if support is broken tomorrow, I would expect an acceleration to the downside that will take the SP to 1190-1185.

http://financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[UpInArms]

18. Piehole Alert: Bush to hold press conference at 10:15 am EST

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38427.4113391204-833214475&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- President Bush will hold a press conference at 10:15 am EST on Wednesday, a White House spokesman said. He did not give any details of the topic.

Will there be new shills in the press pool?

Will Guckert/Gannon still have access?

How scripted will this be?

Will the dimson have his wire snaking up his back?

Inquiring minds want to know.

[UpInArms]

22. numbers at 10:14 (prior to piehole)

Dow 10,694.70 -50.40 (-0.47%)
Nasdaq 2,036.45 +1.47 (+0.07%)
S&P 500 1,194.26 -3.49 (-0.29%)
10-Yr Bond 4.504 -0.38 (-0.84%)

NYSE Volume 255,989,000
Nasdaq Volume 380,434,000

[UpInArms]

25. piehole update 10:2

Dow 10,685.61 -59.49 (-0.55%)
Nasdaq 2,034.72 -0.26 (-0.01%)
S&P 500 1,193.23 -4.52 (-0.38%)
10-Yr Bond 4.516 -0.26 (-0.57%)

NYSE Volume 303,887,000
Nasdaq Volume 433,616,000

10:18am 03/16/05 BUSH: MAKING PROGRESS IN SOCIAL SECURITY REFORM EFFORT

[dweller]

24. Bush to Tap Wolfowitz

as New World Bank President

reuters


dp

[ozymandius]

19. 10:03 and various shades of ugly

Dow 10,695.81 -49.29(-0.46%)
Nasdaq 2,032.86 -2.12(-0.10%)
S&P 500 1,193.24 -4.51(-0.38%)
10-Yr Bond 4.519 -0.23(-0.51%)
NYSE Volume 202,220,000
Nasdaq Volume306,756,000

9:40AM: Stocks open on a downbeat note as falling oil prices are countered by mixed economic data and a warning from GM... Overall sentiment, which initially held a positive bias following OPEC's decision to raise oil output by 500K barrels a day, has substantially weakened after General Motors (GM 29.90 -3.82) slashed Q1 forecasts to a loss of $1.50 versus previous forecasts of breakeven or better...

While such a disappointment would amount to GM's largest quarterly loss since 1992, what really has investors nervous is GM's credit rating which, since GM is the second largest borrower outside the financial sector, continues to teeter just above junk status...

[MARALE]

20. OPEC boosts production

http://money.cnn.com/2005/03/16/news/international/opec.reut/index.htm

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said it is raising production limits 500,000 barrels a day to 27.5 million with immediate effect.

...

Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said Riyadh was aiming to lower the price of crude to $40-$50 a barrel, the first time the world's biggest oil exporter has advocated support for prices that high. "Current oil price levels of $55 are high and we want prices to be between $40 and $50 a barrel," Naimi told the London-based Arabic-language Al-Hayat newspaper.

Crude eased only marginally, with U.S. futures trading off 15 cents at $54.68 a barrel by 1330 GMT and London Brent slipping nine cents to $53.43 a barrel.

"OPEC are doing their best, but it is a train that is difficult to stop," said Bob Finch, head of trade at independent oil trading house Vitol SA.

This might help stop the dollar fall today, Saudi came through on time for the BFEE

[jmcgowanjm]

28. $55.50/bbl- noone believes OPEC

Meanwhile bushco talkin' baseball

Notice how the market drops when bushco
speaks?

[UpInArms]

51. April crude closes at an all-time high ($56.46 bbl)

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38427.6392987269-833231045&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

DALLAS (MarketWatch) -- April crude closed at $56.46 a barrel, up 2.6 percent, or $1.41 after the Energy Department reported greater-than-expected declines in distillate and gasoline supplies. April heating oil rose 2.5 percent, or 3.94 cents, to close at $1.5914 a gallon, and April unleaded gasoline was up 2.7 percent, or 4.1 cents, to close at $1.5483 a gallon.

[UpInArms]

21. 10:05 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,691.98 -53.12 (-0.49%)
Nasdaq 2,033.35 -1.63 (-0.08%)
S&P 500 1,193.60 -4.15 (-0.35%)
10-Yr Bond 4.516 -0.26 (-0.57%)

NYSE Volume 213,114,000
Nasdaq Volume 327,326,000

10:00 Market remains under pressure early on as investors digest several reads on the health of the economy... Among the more noteworthy releases, the current account deficit widened beyond economists' forecasts to a record $187.9 bln in Q4 (consensus -$183.0 bln), from an upwardly revised $165.9 bln in Q3, which has sent the dollar even lower against major currencies... Also, Feb industrial production reached record levels with a rise of 0.3%, which were slightly below forecasts of 0.4% but above an upwardly revised Jan gain of 0.1%... More notably, Feb capacity utilization checked in at a respectable 79.4%, a bit above expectations of 79.2%, but still holds below the 80% inflection point typically linked to bottlenecks and rising price pressures... That said, Treasurys have held relatively steady near their highs of the morning as none of this morning's economic data has heightened inflation concerns... Separately, the Energy Dept. will release weekly crude oil inventories (consensus +2.0 mln), gasoline supplies (consensus -1.0 mln) and distillates (consensus -1.5 mln) at 10:30 ET... ..NYSE Adv/Dec 1047/1524. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 975/1465.

9:40AM: Stocks open on a downbeat note as falling oil prices are countered by mixed economic data and a warning from GM... Overall sentiment, which initially held a positive bias following OPEC's decision to raise oil output by 500K barrels a day, has substantially weakened after General Motors (GM 29.90 -3.82) slashed Q1 forecasts to a loss of $1.50 versus previous forecasts of breakeven or better...

While such a disappointment would amount to GM's largest quarterly loss since 1992, what really has investors nervous is GM's credit rating which, since GM is the second largest borrower outside the financial sector, continues to teeter just above junk status...

[ozymandius]

26. The Piehole Openeth

Dow 10,688.50 -56.60(-0.53%)
Nasdaq 2,035.48 +0.50(+0.02%)
S&P 5001,193.56 -4.19(-0.35%)
10-Yr Bond 4.508 -0.34(-0.75%)

NYSE Volume 331,202,000
Nasdaq Volume 465,545,000

10:00AM: Market remains under pressure early on as investors digest several reads on the health of the economy... Among the more noteworthy releases, the current account deficit widened beyond economists' forecasts to a record $187.9 bln in Q4 (consensus -$183.0 bln), from an upwardly revised $165.9 bln in Q3, which has sent the dollar even lower against major currencies... Also, Feb industrial production reached record levels with a rise of 0.3%, which were slightly below forecasts of 0.4% but above an upwardly revised Jan gain of 0.1%...

More notably, Feb capacity utilization checked in at a respectable 79.4%, a bit above expectations of 79.2%, but still holds below the 80% inflection point typically linked to bottlenecks and rising price pressures... That said, Treasurys have held relatively steady near their highs of the morning as none of this morning's economic data has heightened inflation concerns... Separately, the Energy Dept. will release weekly crude oil inventories (consensus +2.0 mln), gasoline supplies (consensus -1.0 mln) and distillates (consensus -1.5 mln) at 10:30 ET...NYSE Adv/Dec 1047/1524, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 975/1465

[UpInArms]

27. spewings

10:18am 03/16/05 BUSH: MAKING PROGRESS IN SOCIAL SECURITY REFORM EFFORT

10:27am 03/16/05 BUSH: PERSONAL ACCOUNTS WON'T SOLVE SOC. SECURITY WOES

10:29am 03/16/05 BUSH: CONCERNED ABOUT PRICE OF ENERGY AND ITS IMPACT

[jmcgowanjm]

30. $56.20 -it's out of control-when will Bloomberg breakaway

to NYMEX?

[UpInArms]

32. Crude futures surge to all-time high

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38427.4559886227-833217996&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- April crude futures surged to record highs after industry data showed a rise in crude inventories during the latest week, but a drop in gasoline and distillate stocks. The April contract was trading up $1 at $56.05, just off its intraday high of $56.30. The previous all-time high was $55.67, which was seen in the December 2004 contract on Oct. 24, 2004. (This replaces previous item that incorrectly reported the direction of the change in gasoline and distillate stocks.)

[UpInArms]

31. 11:01 EST numbers (LOOK OUT BELOW!)

Dow 10,649.92 -95.18 (-0.89%)
Nasdaq 2,021.70 -13.28 (-0.65%)
S&P 500 1,190.18 -7.57 (-0.63%)
10-Yr Bond 4.482 -0.60 (-1.32%)

NYSE Volume 498,107,000
Nasdaq Volume 658,327,000

[UpInArms]

33. 11:42 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,656.50 -88.60 (-0.82%)
Nasdaq 2,022.73 -12.25 (-0.60%)
S&P 500 1,190.18 -7.57 (-0.63%)
10-Yr Bond 4.476 -0.66 (-1.45%)

NYSE Volume 662,189,000
Nasdaq Volume 861,339,000

11:30AM: Little changed since the last update, as the major averages still vacillate in roughly the same unenthusiastic ranges despite a continued decline in bond yields... Even though a flight to quality into Treasurys has pushed yields on the 10-year note back below the psychological 4.50%, Homebuilding (-0.4%) has yet to benefit... Homebuilding has been in focus all morning after reports showed a rise in housing starts to a 21-year high and decent building permits data...

Feb starts came in at a stronger than expected 2.195 mln annual rate, up from 2.183 mln in January, while building permits declined to a 2.074 mln annual rate, down from 2.132 mln in January, but relatively in line with expectations of a 2.070 mln rate... While the housing industry, at least in terms of starts, has generally leveled off, it has been quite resilient in the face of rising interest rates... NYSE Adv/Dec 1117/2002, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1142/1684

11:00AM: Major indices plummet to session lows as oil prices surge to all-time highs following disappointing oil inventories data... While the Energy Dept. reported a strong build in crude oil inventories of 2.6 mln barrels, versus forecasts of a 2.0 mln rise, larger than expected declines in gasoline inventories and distillates, which fell 2.9 mln barrels (consensus -1.0 mln) and 1.9 mln barrels (consensus -1.5 mln), respectively, have sent oil futures soaring and renewed inflation concerns...

Crude oil futures have recently surpassed a previous record of $55.65/bbl (Oct. 27) and now trade at $56.30/bbl (+$1.25)... XOI +1.3, NYSE Adv/Dec 1047/1965, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1146/1597

on a side note:

11:35am 03/16/05 NEIMAN MARCUS TO CLOSE HOUSTON STORE BY MID-SEPT

11:35am 03/16/05 NEIMAN MARCUS HOUSTON STORE, IN T&C MALL, EMPLOYS 160

guess there are not enough Needless Mark-up shoppers in Houston :eyes:

[nolabels]

34. Today is Wednesday isn't it?

Today the crawl back to below 10,000 will begin


http://www.physics.ucsb.edu/~csc/Experiments/Experiments.html

Note to investors: hide money under mattress

[UpInArms]

37. 12:28 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,659.68 -85.42 (-0.79%)
Nasdaq 2,022.47 -12.51 (-0.61%)
S&P 500 1,190.12 -7.63 (-0.64%)
10-Yr Bond 4.482 -0.60 (-1.32%)

NYSE Volume 802,996,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,008,057,000

12:30 Not much changed in the last half hour but a bearish bias remains firmly intact... Decliners on the NYSE hold a roughly 2 to 1 edge over advancers while declining issues on the Nasdaq outpace advancing issues by a 17 to 11 margin... The ratio of down to up volumes also reflects a decisively negative tone on both the Big Board and the Composite, as total volume on the latter has just surpassed 1.0 bln shares...

Meanwhile, both the Dow and S&P have failed to find secondary support near levels of 10675 and 1191, respectively, while the Nasdaq continues to struggle finding initial support around the 2024 level... ..NYSE Adv/Dec 2078/1095. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1124/1796.

12:00PM: Sellers remain in control of the action midday as all-time highs in oil prices, a disappointment from GM and mixed economic data weigh on overall sentiment... Crude oil prices ($55.95/bbl +$0.90) continue to trade at record highs amid disappointing oil inventories data, which has heightened worries of inflation and kept nearly every sector underwater...

The EIA reported a 2.6 mln barrel increase in crude oil inventories (consensus +2.0 mln) but showed stronger than expected declines in both gasoline inventories (-2.9 mln versus consensus of -1.0 mln) and distillates (-1.9 mln barrels versus consensus of -1.5 mln)... Meanwhile, sharply lower than expected guidance from General Motors (GM 29.22 -4.50), which slashed Q1 forecasts to a loss of $1.50, versus prior forecasts of breakeven or better due to sluggish sales in N. America, has weighed heavily on blue chips... While amounting to GM's largest quarterly loss since 1992, a sense of nervousness regarding further deterioration of GM's credit rating has underpinned a firmly bearish bias...

That said, investors in corporate bonds have flocked to safer, more stable debt instruments like Treasurys, as the 10-year note has surged 15 ticks yielding a more encouraging 4.48%... Bonds have also gotten a boost from this morning's economic data... While the Q4 current account deficit widened to a record $187.9 bln, weakening the dollar against major currencies, industrial production hit record levels, capacity utilization below 80% kept rising price pressures in check and housing starts hit a 21-year high...

[TrogL]

38. Loonie Watch

http://members.shaw.ca/trogl/looniewatch.html

Highlights.



http://www.x-rates.com/d/USD/CAD/data30.html

Detailed analysis (http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD)

Up-to-the-minute graph (http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=CME_CDY&v=i)


2005-02-15 Tuesday, February 15 0.810636 USD
2005-02-16 Wednesday, February 16 0.805088 USD
2005-02-17 Thursday, February 17 0.812348 USD
2005-02-18 Friday, February 18 0.813405 USD
2005-02-22 Tuesday, February 22 0.812942 USD
2005-02-23 Wednesday, February 23 0.806322 USD
2005-02-24 Thursday, February 24 0.804182 USD
2005-02-25 Friday, February 25 0.805997 USD
2005-02-28 Monday, February 28 0.813339 USD
2005-03-01 Tuesday, March 1 0.804829 USD
2005-03-02 Wednesday, March 2 0.806777 USD
2005-03-03 Thursday, March 3 0.802375 USD
2005-03-04 Friday, March 4 0.811425 USD
2005-03-07 Monday, March 7 0.813008 USD
2005-03-08 Tuesday, March 8 0.822166 USD
2005-03-09 Wednesday, March 9 0.828912 USD
2005-03-10 Thursday, March 10 0.829876 USD
2005-03-11 Friday, March 11 0.830496 USD
2005-03-14 Monday, March 14 0.827335 USD
2005-03-15 Tuesday, March 15 0.828912 USD




The June Canadian Dollar was higher overnight due to short covering and working on a possible inside day as it consolidates some of Tuesday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be near. If June renews last week's rally, January's high crossing at .8362 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at .8243 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to higher opening in early-day session trading.

No particular news. The Briar (which gave Edmonton an economic boost) is over with the home-town boy winning. With Peak Oil imminent (or already here according to some) all eyes are on the Oil Sands projects. The mayor of Fort McMurray is whining that he simply doesn't have the instructructure to support all the projects on the drawing board. There are concerns about the amount of energy required to release usable products (eg. heating oil, gasoline) from bitumen and whether this power should come from natural gas (another resource in diminishing supply), nuclear, or something bleeding-edge like thermal.

In local news, I found a loonie on the floor. Go figure.

[ozymandius]

39. post-lunch numbers and blather

1:05

Dow 10,678.08 -67.02(-0.62%)
Nasdaq 2,026.85 -8.13(-0.40%)
S&P 500 1,192.57 -5.18(-0.43%)
10-Yr Bond 4.468 -0.74(-1.63%)

NYSE Volume 901,373,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,113,750,000

1:00PM: Market rebounds somewhat but not nearly enough to make a significant change in the standings... While General Motors' (GM 29.25 -4.47) disappointment has arguably pulled the rug out from under blue chips, there has been at least one piece of encouraging news among the automakers... Shares of rival Ford Motor (F 11.92 -0.31), which have traded lower in sympathy with GM's decline, have improved somewhat after it reaffirmed FY05 guidance within the hour...

Ford, albeit not dismissing ongoing challenges in a difficult market, still sees Q1 EPS in the range of $0.25-0.35 (consensus $0.40), expects FY05 EPS of $1.75-$1.95 (consensus $1.75) and has also reiterated full-year operating-related positive cash flow guidance of $1.2-1.5 bln... GM, which initially projected a $2.0 bln cash inflow, now expects to see a $4.0 bln swing to negative cash flow of $2.0 bln, excluding the $2.0 bln Fiat settlement...NYSE Adv/Dec 1058/2145, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1183/1791

[UpInArms]

40. 1:41 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,662.05 -83.05 (-0.77%)
Nasdaq 2,022.62 -12.36 (-0.61%)
S&P 500 1,190.23 -7.52 (-0.63%)
10-Yr Bond 4.492 -0.50 (-1.10%)

NYSE Volume 996,188,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,209,466,000

1:30PM: Equities remain on the defensive as selling remains widespread across most areas... Not even the mention of M&A activity has raised a buyer's eyebrow today... Then again, Telecom Services (-0.6%) has been a focal point for quite awhile as Qwest (Q 3.77 -0.09) and Verizon (VZ 35.57 -0.11) continue to exchange blows bidding for troubled MCI Corp. (MCIP 23.80 -0.23)... Today, Qwest sweetened its offer for MCI, outbidding Verizon's previous $6.6 bln offer by about $1.8 bln with a revised proposal of $8.45 bln...

Meanwhile, Verizon continues to remind investors that a potential Qwest-MCI merger would be "perilous" for MCI, citing Qwest's declining business, its high levels of debt and questionable cost savings...NYSE Adv/Dec 1135/2075, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1215/1769

[RawMaterials]

41. Ukraine to Drop Dollar Peg, Add Euro to Reflect Trade With EU

March 16 (Bloomberg) -- Ukraine plans to replace the hryvnia's peg to the dollar with a more flexible exchange-rate system that includes the euro, reflecting the former Soviet state's growing trade with Western Europe, Economy Minister Serhiy Teryokhin said.

The policy will raise the share of Europe's common currency in Ukraine's $9.5 billion of foreign exchange reserves to about 25 percent and may involve a ``managed float,'' in which the hryvnia will trade more freely after being linked to the dollar since 1998, Teryokhin said.

``The strict peg to the dollar should be replaced by a basket at a first stage,'' Teryokhin said in an interview during a London investment conference yesterday. ``It is too early to say how'' the exchange-rate system ``will look.''

President Viktor Yushchenko, who won an election in December, wants the nation to join the European Union to boost growth and raise living standards. Easing limits on the hryvnia would help move the $60 billion economy closer to the EU and follow similar moves by regional peers including Poland and the Czech Republic, which ousted communism in 1989 and joined the EU last year.

snip..

Boosting Trade

The 25-member EU accounts for 42 percent of Ukrainian trade, including exports of metals and chemicals, Teryokhin said. Poland and the Czech Republic ship three-quarters of their goods to other EU nations.

Ukraine's exports to Europe as a whole rose to $11.3 billion in 2003 from $8.6 billion in 2002, according to Deutsche Bank AG. Imports from Europe rose to $13.9 billion in 2003 from $10.7 billion in 2002.

The changes would involve removal of controls on ``non- capital'' foreign-exchange transactions and restrictions on investing in foreign securities markets, the minister said. The government also plans to remove a 1.5 percent tax on repatriation of profits for foreign investors, he said, without giving a time- frame.

The proposals will need to be outlined in draft budget proposals to parliament on March 21, he said. The measures don't require parliamentary approval, he said.

At the same time, the government and the central bank are discussing how to prevent an increase of ``speculative'' investments, especially in Ukraine's stock market, he said.

more..

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000085&sid=aVDSmAb1fe.o&refer=europe

[UpInArms]

42. Metals end higher; gold back atop $444

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B136A5D60%2DD026%2D4443%2D8939%2D2D90ABF415BD%7D&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Metals futures closed broadly higher Wednesday, with gold erasing some of the week's losses as the U.S. dollar came under renewed selling pressure.

Copper prices remained hot, extending their recent rally but finishing off their highs for the session.

Gold's gains came at the expense of the dollar, whose weakness reflected in part the latest reading of the U.S. current account deficit. The Commerce Department said the deficit widened to a record $187.9 billion in the fourth quarter of 2004. See Economic Report. See Currencies.

After losing $5.40 an ounce over Monday and Tuesday, gold for April delivery won back $2.80 to close at $444.20 lately an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Amid signs that strong global demand isn't abating, May copper advanced 1.55 cents to end at $1.506 a pound.

...more...

[ozymandius]

43. I hope today's averages reflect on Bush's portfolio.

2:26


Dow 10,654.95 -90.15(-0.84%)
Nasdaq 2,017.57 -17.41(-0.86%)
S&P 500 1,189.18 -8.57(-0.72%)
10-Yr Bond 4.510 -0.32(-0.70%)

NYSE Volume1,142,951,000
Nasdaq Volume1,408,202,000

2:00PM: Broader market action still leaves a lot to be desired, but there are some individual stories of note generating some excitement... In Technology, shares of Research in Motion (RIMM 79.99 +12.90) have soared roughly 20% after settling a patent dispute with NTP for $450 mln prompted several brokerage firms to upgrade the stock... In Retail, Toys R Us (TOY 24.75 +0.66) has hit a new 52-week high after reports suggested that two investment groups have made offers of more than $5.5 bln for the entire company...NYSE Adv/Dec 1036/2189, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1176/1843

[UpInArms]

44. 2:46 and getting bloodier

Dow 10,638.39 -106.71 (-0.99%)
Nasdaq 2,017.19 -17.79 (-0.87%)
S&P 500 1,187.62 -10.13 (-0.85%)
10-Yr Bond 4.518 -0.24 (-0.53%)

NYSE Volume 1,211,267,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,486,110,000

2:30PM: A bearish tone continues to persist in stocks as the indices extend their reach into negative territory... Adding to the worsening sentiment, aside from the obvious in rising oil prices, has been negative news from Biogen Idec (BIIB 35.96 -2.11)... Within the last half hour, FDA officials and Biogen have warned that its MS drug Avonex can cause severe liver injury, including liver failure... News that Biogen will be revising its warning label, rather than pulling the drug altogether, has somewhat cooled the knee-jerk reaction; but BIIB shares remain under pressure...

Meanwhile, the AMEX Biotechnology Index, which had been hovering just under the flat line most of the day, has tumbled and is now off more than 1.0%...NYSE Adv/Dec 998/2266, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1069/1972

knee-jerk reaction to a deadly drug being marketed by big pharma???? :wtf:

[ozymandius]

45. Here's a kneejerk reaction. More redness at 3:02.

Dow 10,626.13 -118.97(-1.11%)
Nasdaq 2,016.31 -18.67(-0.92%)
S&P 500 1,186.85 -10.90(-0.91%)
10-Yr Bond 4.525 -0.17(-0.37%)
NYSE Volume 1,272,705,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,561,210,000

[UpInArms]

46. blather (from "knee-jerking" to "managing wealth" through selling)

3:00PM: Major indices continue to trade near session lows heading into the final hour of trading as losses remain fairly large... Meanwhile, Financial (-0.9%) has been in focus for the second straight session following another upbeat earnings report from a notable brokerage firm... This morning, Bear Stearns (BSC 101.74 -4.29) reported Q1 (Feb) earnings of $2.64 per share, beating analysts' forecasts by $0.30 due to continued strength in bond trading and wealth management...

Investors, however, have managed their wealth today by selling the stock, since BSC's results failed to meet increased expectations following blow out earnings from Lehman Brothers (LEH 93.74 -2.45) yesterday... Under the earnings microscope tomorrow morning will be brokerage firms Goldman Sachs (GS 109.06 -1.48) and Morgan Stanley (MWD 57.59 -1.26) while DG, FDX, ADBE, CTAS, JBL, NKE and TEK round out the list of other notable S&P components posting quarterly results Thursday...NYSE Adv/Dec 987/2275, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1093/1960

[MARALE]

48. Wow

They are really spinning today, managing their wealth. I am just flabergasted. It would be funny if the dow hasn't just lost 130+ points today.

[The_Casual_Observer]

47. Please pardon me for this, but after seeing chimp today and

the ANWR vote, all I have to say is burn, motherfucker.

[UpInArms]

49. 3:17 EST numbers

Dow 10,629.90 -115.20 (-1.07%)
Nasdaq 2,015.89 -19.09 (-0.94%)
S&P 500 1,187.48 -10.27 (-0.86%)
10-Yr Bond 4.518 -0.24 (-0.53%)

NYSE Volume 1,339,004,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,626,070,000

[RawMaterials]

50. if we break support levels at 10600 it might be a big fall n/m

[ozymandius]

52. finals and blather

Dow 10,633.52 -111.88(-1.04%)
Nasdaq 2,015.95 -19.23(-0.94%)
S&P 500 1,188.01 -9.67(-0.81%)
10-Yr Bond 4.518 -0.24(-0.53%)

NYSE Volume 1,619,688,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,934,840,000

3:30PM: Selling remains the name of the game going into the close as the major indices continue to chalk up substantial losses... Also succumbing to late-day selling pressure, but still managing modest gains on the day, were Treasurys... While failing to close near their highs, as the rally stalled on technical trade, bonds still turned in a solid performance as the benchmark 10-year note closed up 8 ticks yielding 4.51%... The rotation out of GM corporate bonds and mixed economic data were supportive factors...

Economic data of interest tomorrow will be the 8:30 ET release of initial claims (consensus 315K) while Feb. Leading Indicators (consensus +0.1%) will hit the wires at 10:00 ET and the Mar. Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey will be released at 12:00 ET...NYSE Adv/Dec 956/2342, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1076/1996

[ozymandius]

53. more blather

3:43PM Afternoon Wrap: Aggressive extension : The Dow and S&P 500 have been on the defensive from the opening bell with the Nasdaq indices joining them behind the woodshed for a beating after the first 50 minutes of trade. The weakest sectors today have been Steel -3.7%, Chemical -2.6%, Paper -2.3%, Transportation -1.8%, Software -1.6%, Cyclical -1.5%, Tobacco -1.4%, Retail -1.4%, Telecom -1.4%, Broker/Dealer -1.4%, Defense -1.4%. Gold 0.8%, Oil 0.3% and Oil Service 0.3% are the only major sector averages in the black. The averages have, however, edged slightly higher off important supports: Dow - Feb low 10609 (close low 10611); S&P 500 - Feb low 1184; Nasdaq 100 - 200 sma/Jan low 1482/1480; Nasdaq Comp - 2008 Jan low; Semi Index SOX - 415.85 50% retrace of Jan/Feb rally.

[RawMaterials]

54. Updated Dow

Dow 10633.07 -112.03 (-1.04%)

[ozymandius]

55. Thanks. Here's closing blather. Woe be the word.

Close: Historic highs in oil, downside guidance from GM and mixed economic data fueled broad-based weakness that closed the indices substantially lower and nearly every sector in negative territory... Crude oil was the focal point well before the market even opened, as prices fell below $55/bbl after OPEC raised output quotas by 500K barrels a day... But the release of disappointing oil inventories data at 10:30 ET was all traders needed to erase early weakness, as the king of commodities began its climb and quickly crowned a new all-time high of $56.46/bbl (+$1.41)...

The Energy Dept. reported a 2.6 mln barrel increase in crude oil inventories (consensus +2.0 mln), but sharper than expected declines in weekly gasoline inventories and distillates, which fell 2.9 mln barrels (consensus -1.0 mln) and decreased 1.9 mln barrels (consensus -1.5 mln), respectively, reversed previously muted inflation concerns following mixed economic data... But before investors could sift through the week's largest batch of economic reports, the market was rattled by a warning from General Motors (GM 29.03 -4.69)...

The world's largest automaker slashed Q1 forecasts to a loss of $1.50, versus prior forecasts of breakeven or better, due to sluggish sales in North America... More notably, while the larger than expected downward revision amounted to GM's largest quarterly loss since 1992, a sense of nervousness regarding further deterioration of GM's already poor credit rating (a notch above junk status) swept through the minds of both equity and bond traders, underpinning a firmly bearish bias for stocks... That said, corporate bond investors flocked to safer, more stable debt instruments like Treasurys, sending the 10-year note up 15 ticks to yield a more tolerable 4.48%...

See you folks tomorrow in the AM for Maeve Day.

Ozy :hi: