India to be ‘unrivalled’ in 15 years: US report

[NNN0LHI]

http://www.indiadaily.com/editorial/1928.asp

India will emerge as an ''unrivalled'' regional power with large military capabilities in the next 15 years but its ''rising ambition'' would further strain its relations with China besides complicating ties with Russia and Japan, America’s National Intelligence Council has said in a report.

“India will be the unrivalled regional power with a large military — including naval and nuclear capabilities — and a dynamic and growing economy,” the NIC, which represents 15 spy agencies of the US including the CIA, has said in its global trends forecast for 15 years.

“The size of its population — 1.2 billion by 2015 — and its technologically driven economic growth virtually dictate that India will be a rising regional power,” it said.

Wary of China, India will look increasingly to the West, but its need for oil and desire to balance Arab ties to Pakistan will lead to strengthened ties to persian Gulf states as well. The NIC also forecast that India, China and Russia could form a de facto geo-strategic alliance in an attempt to counter-balance US and western influence.

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[NewJeffCT]

1. Interesting

People I know that have been to both India & China think China is far ahead of India in terms of development... and, the prestigious UK magazine The Economist says that if its a race, China has already lapped India.

[jmatthan]

8. Economist is a lousy journal

I cancelled my subscription to the Economist over 10 years ago as I found that they had a very myopic view of the world. Their economists and reporters are short-sighted.The statement you quoted is a typical example of a journalistic team far from realities!!

When they wrote an article about the Asian Tigers, they down-played India not realising that India works like an elephant, not as per the demands of a capitalist structure where profit comes first.

They could not answer a simple question in their presentation that if India jumped into the 21 st century at the speed it could - there would be no oil for anyone else!! If every Indian drinks one extra cup of tea a day, there will be no tea for the world market!!

China is certainly extremely developed, but the reason is that they have two parallel development trends, both divorced from each other. The military and the civilian. There are 14 military universities just in the city of Nanjing!! The students never even see the light of day in the civilian field.

China and India will continue to develop at their own paces and in their own interests. Both know that being at logger heads with each other will benefit no-one. They know there is one common enemy - a neocon US!!

Jacob Matthan
http://jmpolitics.blogspot.com
Oulu, Finland

[htuttle]

2. There is China's future consumer market...

...to replace the one they had here.

As soon as India can support ChinaMart™ stores in every town, China will have no reason to keep propping up our economy.

[kk897]

11. Ever hear of Unisplendor?

It's a giant Chinese manufacturing firm--maybe even the largest. They make a bunch of the stuff sold in Wal-Mart. A client of mine tells me that soon the current paradigm, where American companies outsource production of American products to China then sell the products here, will be replaced by another, where Asian companies like Unisplendor both create and manufacture the products to be sold here. I'm sure UniMarts aren't far in the future for, gee, the world, really.

[autorank]

3. World's largest true democracy...and their voting machines work.

The parties all support the simple machines. Maybe they can observe and run our elections. Then we might be able to keep up with them.

[cliss]

4. Interesting.

We are planning a trip to India in 2007. We will be attending the world's largest religious conference, the 'Kumbha Mela' in Allahabad.

I absolutely believe India's star is rising. They are investing in their brightest people, like engineers, software engineers,scientists, medical doctors, and others. Unlike the US, which is neglecting the very people who can get us out of our self-created mess.

The Harvard Business Review recently wrote that foreigners in increasing numbers, don't want to come here because of political reasons, lack of opportunities, etc.

And of course in terms of religion - they are the specialists.

Here's a fact that Bush will never figure out: a country's biggest asset is its people.

[Ganja Ninja]

5. and America will be the new Argentina in 15 years. n/t

[cthrumatrix]

6. hell--- they have all the US jobs...makes perfect sense

[htuttle]

7. They never really were 'our' jobs

Because the companies that provided the jobs weren't really 'American' corporations. Nation-states mean nothing to corporations nowdays, except insofar as they help or hinder their profits.

That old slogan of 'What is good for American business is good for America' is a BIG FAT FUCKING LIE!! There is no 'American business' -- just a bunch of carpetbaggers who happened to stop on our corner for awhile to lighten our wallets up.

When our wallets are empty, they'll pack up and move on to the next corner. That's Kapitalism. That's how it's apparently SUPPOSED to work. :shrug:

[varun]

9. I am optimistic about India

I came to visit after 2.5 years, and see a lot of change for the better. In fact, after spending 16 years in US, getting a Ph.D. in Electrical Engineering, and going through all the hurdles to get a "green card", India is appearing greener to me....not just because of its future economy, but because of its liberal institutions, and a true multiparty democracy that has mastered the art of managing the most diverse population on the planet.

[NNN0LHI]

10. I wonder how optimistic India's 160 million "Untouchables" are?

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2003/06/0602_030602_untouchables.html

India's "Untouchables" Face Violence, Discrimination

More than 160 million people in India are considered "Untouchable"—people tainted by their birth into a caste system that deems them impure, less than human.

Human rights abuses against these people, known as Dalits, are legion. A random sampling of headlines in mainstream Indian newspapers tells their story: "Dalit boy beaten to death for plucking flowers"; "Dalit tortured by cops for three days"; "Dalit 'witch' paraded naked in Bihar"; "Dalit killed in lock-up at Kurnool"; "7 Dalits burnt alive in caste clash"; "5 Dalits lynched in Haryana"; "Dalit woman gang-raped, paraded naked"; "Police egged on mob to lynch Dalits".

"Dalits are not allowed to drink from the same wells, attend the same temples, wear shoes in the presence of an upper caste, or drink from the same cups in tea stalls," said Smita Narula, a senior researcher with Human Rights Watch, and author of Broken People: Caste Violence Against India's "Untouchables." Human Rights Watch is a worldwide activist organization based in New York.

India's Untouchables are relegated to the lowest jobs, and live in constant fear of being publicly humiliated, paraded naked, beaten, and raped with impunity by upper-caste Hindus seeking to keep them in their place. Merely walking through an upper-caste neighborhood is a life-threatening offense.

Nearly 90 percent of all the poor Indians and 95 percent of all the illiterate Indians are Dalits, according to figures presented at the International Dalit Conference that took place May 16 to 18 in Vancouver, Canada.

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[kk897]

13. I was thinking of this myself.

160 million is like about half the US population, right? (I'm bad with numbers). Can you imagine? What a tragedy.

I went through a mild Bollywood phase recently. I'm by no stretch of the imagination an expert, of course, but it seems that almost none of their films deal with the subject. One, Lagaan, does. I love that movie. It's an underdog story about cricket, three hours long, and a musical! Funny, sad, suspenseful, and enjoyable all around. Amir Khan is HOT! I think it came out around 2001 or so.

Anyway, Lagaan does have a Dalit character, although he mainly serves to show how great and magnanamous the hero is. Actually, that's a dynamic you often see in Hollywood movies, too, especially about the plight of Black people in America (i.e., Mississippi Burning).

[0007]

12. If the brains of India were to leave this country there would be

a 'brain drain' for sure.