Chirac faces constitutional crisis

[T_i_B]

http://www.guardian.co.uk/elsewhere/journalist/story/0,7792,1434396,00.html

So now we know: France's political leaders face their date with destiny on May 29. For as well as determining such a minor matter as the immediate future of the EU, the outcome of the French referendum on the EU constitution will also make or break a fair few Gallic careers.

It would be betraying no secrets to say that the French president, Jacques Chirac - who announced the date of the keenly-awaited plebiscite late last week - would have given a great deal not to have had to do so. He is well aware that, if it were all to go pear-shaped, the first head on the block would be his.

Had he had any option other than calling a referendum he is by no means certain of winning, Mr Chirac would have taken it. But under pressure from all France's political parties, from both the pro and anti-constitution camps, and from the French electorate, he knew he could not be seen to be dodging the issue by relying on a straightforward vote in parliament.

So it had to be a referendum - and it presents Mr Chirac with a very big problem indeed. The result is, to say the least, uncertain. France has a history of using plebiscites to punish the government of the day - and the government of the day is very unpopular indeed.

[tjwmason]

1. It is widely rumoured that Blair wants France to vote 'no'

He has promised us a referendum in Britain, and at the moment the odds are strongly in favour of us voting 'no' - which would do him immense political damage. If France voted 'no' by a reasonable margin, then the whole constitution project would be utterly dead (no bad thing i.m.o.), and Blair could quietly drop our referendum.

[aneerkoinos]

3. Yes and no

True, Blair quite likely hopes that France votes no, because if UK (plus one small country) are the only ones not accepting the constitution, the 23-24 may very likely to decide to find a way to go ahead without UK, in practice England ending up outside the Union.

Blair of course could not drop referendum if France voted no.

[termo]

5. polls show a >60% yes vote

and the main political parties are calling to vote yes, even if some of these members call for a no...

wait and see.

BTW, if 4/5 of the 25 members approve the constitution, the others will have 5 years to approve it or leave...

UK has still the option to become a US state </sarcasm?>

[Mass]

2. Not sure we can talk about constitutional crisis

Actually, the results seem to depend entirely on what the main left wing party will do. The Socialist Party is divided on the matter, with its main leaders supporting the YES, fut a few old populist ones calling for the NO. In Chirac's party, the same division happens.

What makes it so difficult for Chirac to defend the YES is that he is philosophically opposed to Europe, but has found it a good way of self-promotion.

While the results present a problem for Chirac, it will only be the third election that he loses, if he loses, and this will change nothing, given that the next elections are in two years and he is not running again. So he really could not care less except for legacy issues.

I have to say I am torn on the issue, willing to vote YES but also wishing that Chirac gets a beating in this election.

[aneerkoinos]

4. The center

The center-left and the center-right support the constitution, the margins oppose.

I hope you vote on the issue and beat Chirac's follower candidate when the time comes. :)

[T_i_B]

6. The thing that worries me about France

is that all the political problems France has at present are being spun by the UK press as being more likely to persuade the IOC to give the Olympics to us instead!

France can vote as it wishes in an EU referendum, but I'd much rather the French host the games in 2012 rather then London.