Allawi, Kurds Set to Form Coalition

[ECH1969]

BAGHDAD, February 12 – The two main Kurdish parties in Iraq have given their conditional go-ahead for a parliamentary coalition with interim Prime Minister Iyad Allawi, well-placed Kurdish sources have revealed.

The Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) and the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) asked, in swap, for Allawi’s backing for PUK leader Jalal Talabani to be elected president, the sources told Al-Quds Press Friday, February 11.

During a surprise visit by Allawi to Arbil on Thursday, February 10, Kurdish officials further asked that Arabs in Kirkuk be regarded as “refugees” who must be deported gradually to allow the return of Kurds allegedly forced to leave their homes by the ousted regime of Saddam Hussein.

Allawi nodded enthusiastically to the Kurdish demands in return for backing his hard-fought battle to keep the much-coveted and influential prime minister post. The Allawi-Kurds deal came after the UIA failed to entice the two Kurdish parties into a parliamentary alliance, Al-Quds Press said.

http://tinylink.com/?35INBCt66a

[PROGRESSIVE1]

1. Does this mean that Sistani will share power with Allawi?

It was my understanding that Sistani won an outright majority of the votes cast.

I'd hate to see Bush puppet Allawi to be in charge of anything. If he is, then the whole election is a farce.

[ECH1969]

3. I don't know what it means

My guess is that if Allawi gets the PM position the Shia will still have a massive amount of power over Allawi's government.

[hector459]

52. It means you can color Allawi "gone"

The Shia nor the Turkmen will not sit still for this alliance.

[Obviousman]

2. I think it's ironic that a guy named "Talabani" is in line for president

[Igel]

18. It just means 'student'.

I think. 'Talib' is one, 'taliban' is many.

My elementary Arab book has all the users calling themselves taliban. It was printed in Moscow, so Salafist intent is probably not an option.

[Obviousman]

25. interesting

thanks for dispelling some of my ignorance

[IndianaGreen]

4. I don't think the Shias will go for this deal

and neither will the Turks!

Allawi is viewed as an infidel by the followers of Ayatollah Sistani. Any attempt by Allawi and the Kurds to deny power to the religous Shias will be resisted and will ultimately fail.

[Skink]

5. Sunnistan...

The birth of a nation.

[kentuck]

22. IG.. I tend to agree...

The Kurds have been allied with the American "infidels" since the beginning. Allawi is weak on his own. He got a low % of the vote - not enough to lead the people of Iraq. However, since he is already established as a strong-man puppet of the CIA, they must try to keep him in power. The question is: How will Sistani and his followers react to this statement? I cannot help but think they will feel they are being pushed out of assuming any control over the govt of Iraq? And Iran is the wildcard in the whole game.

[Jack Rabbit]

30. I agree, IG

If the neocons want to make Iraq explode and get more of our troops killed for their foolishness, this would be the best way to go about it.

[LinuxInsurgent]

45. Allawi won't get PM spot

All the Shiites need to do is hold strong...they got numbers and legitimacy on their side.

The worst thing that happens is that a government can't be formed (because both sides won't back down), in which case there will be another election.

And guess who will win the other election? If you thought Shiites voted a lot THIS time...expect the next one to be, not 48% of the vote...but 60% of the vote.

An Allawi-Kurd alliance cannot compete with Shiite list.

If I were the Shiites...I'd stir up some vocal trouble in the streets...let the Kurds and Allawi know that insisting on his PM job could destabilize things...Allawi and the Kurds would fold...

[Junkdrawer]

41. BushCo will use the prospect of religious Shia rule to stay in Iraq...

"If we leave, the Ayatollahs take over"...

Southern Iraq will likely explode once the Shia realize how they just got screwed.

[LinuxInsurgent]

46. a part of me...

would wish such an explosion to occur...just to see Bush's stupid SMIRK off his face.

But...I'd doubt that he's that stupid...the only reason why the U.S. has coddled Sistani is because they know he's no joke...the U.S. cannot take a Shiite insurgency...hell..it' can't take 20% of the population insurgency...

[Kagemusha]

6. So Allawi bought the Kurds by selling out Shia Arabs in the north.

This is gonna be ugly as hell, either way it goes. (And the other part of "either" is Sistani's list getting 2/3rds majority which is necessary to totally have their way, in which case the Kurds, if they don't get Sistani to sign on to the ethnic cleansing himself, would simply turn their backs on the central government anyway.)

It's a good way to start a civil war.

[Igel]

19. I thought most of the Arab imports in Kirkuk were Sunni. n/t

[Kagemusha]

26. Saddam brought Shias in on purpose.

Kurds are Sunnis. It's easy to understand his thinking really. Make sure the Arabs are Shias so that they have less in common with the Kurds. Divide and conquer.

[acmavm]

7. Allawi made a deal with the Kurds? How funny. He sold out his own

people, made a laughing stock out of the 'free election', all to be the lackey for the crackpots and crazies who are responsible for bombing and killing a hundred thousand plus civilians.

Jeez, how many ways can one person possibly prove that he's a disgusting piece of shit and can't be trusted? You can tell he's related to Chalabi. Must run in the family.

[LynnTheDem]

8. Poor carbombing terrorist Allawi, such DESPERATION! How much did he pay

the Kurds for this, I wonder???

This is gonna get WAY ugly; Turkey will see this as a road to Kurd separatism, which will equal Turkey declaring war on the Kurds.

The Shia will, of course, be solidly 100% OPPOSED to Shia (and carbombing terrorist) Allawi's betrayal of Shia in Kirkuk.

[Kagemusha]

10. I do believe Kirkuk is payment enough.

I also don't believe the Shias will take this lying down. I mean, can Sistani afford to be seen approving this? (Probably doesn't care for it on a personal level either.) Then again, Allawi can probably hold democracy hostage indefinitely now, with the help of the Kurds, and remain as interim PM indefinitely until everyone else cracks. And if they do crack, the street may explode, whether Sistani's guiding it or he leaves the initiative to Sadr.

[lovuian]

9. An interesting partnership!!! Its looking like the Kurds has friends

in high places!!!

[davhill]

11. I was wondering how the neocons would do it

Keeping this unpopular puppet in power dispite the elections.

[daleo]

12. He cut a deal with separatists, just to be prime minister.

We have seen this sort of thing in Canada. It never ends well for anyone. Fortunately, Canada has avoided civil war and separation when this sort of thing has happened (Mulroney, Harper is toying with it now), but Iraq isn't likely to share the good fortune of Canada.

Anywhere else this would be called ethnic cleansing.

[Igel]

20. I'm not sure why people imported into Kirkuk and now told

to go home is "ethnic cleansing". Allowing them to stay and saying the displaced Kurds can't return home is blessing the results of ethnic cleansing.

It's a bad situation. There's no morally clean outcome.

[daleo]

27. No there is no easy solution. But expelling populations is the worst.

Reparations should be paid to the people whose property was expropriated, at fair market value. In an imperfect world, that's probably the best that can be done.

When Saddam transferred Arabs to the north, that could hardly be called ethnic cleansing. More like colonialism, which is only ethnic cleansing if you exterminate the indigenous population. Clearly that didn't happen in this case, or there would be no Kurds left to dispute the issue. Indigenous populations were wiped out in parts of North America though, and even when they weren't wiped out most of their land was taken from them, usually with no or inadequate compensation.

Most people discussing this matter have benefited, at least indirectly, from practices identical to those being discussed here. There comes a point where live and let live is the only reasonable solution.

[Igel]

28. I think there are people in the I/P forum that would disagree.

I'd call it partial ethnic cleansing; maybe weakening or changing the ethnic composition to make the population more malleable or less cohesive.

I'm still out on the matter. To some extent it's justice: the Kurds kicked out weren't kicked out 50 or 80 years ago, but a decade or two back. The problem is that while the Shi'a can do the same thing, their old stomping grounds are now claimed by others who don't want them back.

I guess there was the same problem when the Tatars were allowed to return home.

[daleo]

33. This sounds like a pretty good definition of colonialism to me:

"weakening or changing the ethnic composition to make the population more malleable or less cohesive".

At any rate, it is one of the time honored tricks the British Empire and many others used in their colonial endeavors. In Canada and the U.S. they went so far as to import tens of millions of people from the home country (and others) to weaken the indigenous population. Later, the American and Canadian governments did the same thing, once they achieved independence.

In the part of the world I inhabit (Alberta Canada) this was mostly achieved within the last 100-125 years or so. So, we can't always claim that the sands of time have eroded our complicity in these practices.

[barb162]

31. my understanding is that Saddam brought Sunnis in to Kirkuk

years ago and they basically threw out the Kurds from their homes. Now the Kurds are doing payback. The Kurds' homes were stolen in the first place by Saddam and the Sunnis. Since neither the Kurds or Shiites like the Sunnis, this makes sense and I thought it would happen sooner or later.

[qanda]

13. Is this what took them so long to announce the results

They were trying to figure out how to keep their puppet in place. I don't think the Shias are going to be very happy about this little power move. Should be interesting.

[OETKB]

14. More Turmoil

The American puppet coalition of Allawi and the Kurds now stands in stark contrast to the rest of the Jan 30th vote. It can only inflame life more and each of these new coalition partners unfortunately have touchstones to outside forces(US, Turkey, and Israel). The tinderbox is getting closer to ignition.

Read "The Nation" article by Naomi Klein to get a different take on the election from the way it has been portrayed in the regular media. <http://www.thenation.com/doc.mhtml?i=20050228&s=klein>

[oasis]

40. Excellent piece by Naomi Klein. Thanks.

[LinuxInsurgent]

47. yeah...

good article.

[sampsonblk]

15. Why is this different from other news sources??

This isn't what's being reported elsewhere. I see 51+% for the Sistani's list, and Allawi a distant third behind the Kurds. If that's true, no coalition can give him any (honest) claim on any top post.

???

[Kagemusha]

16. Some genius made it so that you need 2/3rds to seat a govt.

So, if Allawi and the Kurds can block the United Iraqi Alliance from getting his way, poof: paralysis, until Allawi gets HIS way. And until he does, he remains as PM under the existing CPA laws.

[LinuxInsurgent]

48. isn't it 50%+1

in other parliamentary systems?

British, Canadians, French? Can we get some comparison?

If the 2/3 rule is an American creation...then it was put there to make the dominance of an anti-American government impossible.

They must have figured that a coalition government would have more chances of being more moderate (to accomodate all the factions) then one in which a party with 50% could win complete control.

Anyway...the Constitution created by this Assembly can be vetoed by certain percentages in different provinces.

If I were the Shiites, I'd take the reigns of power, and disband the stupid parameters of the Transitional Law...They have no legitimacy, and are there to constrain Iraqi democracy along American-desired lines.

Advice to the Shiites, Take the State, the means of communication, take the armed forces...and when it's convenient (and the Americans leave), throw away all considerations of "provincial" vetoes.

Not becuase I don't care about Sunnis and kurds...but because I believe the transitional law to be unfairly sectatrian and making it impossible for Iraq to have a cohesive vision. I see a repeat of Nigeria here, with Fulani, Ibu, and Yoruba factions (Shiite, Sunni, Kurd) dividing the country in three.

[0rganism]

17. This is the drawing of battle lines, make no mistake

For a while, there was some uncertainty as to whether Allawi would align himself with the Shi'ites or not. Now he's thrown in with the Kurds, which puts the US-sponsored puppet gov't at odds with Turkey as well as the Shi'a population, and it already has the ill-will of the Sunnis.

From here on out, it's going to get a lot tougher. At least Diem had the good sense not to declare a parliamentary alliance with Cambodia...

[VegasWolf]

21. Okay children, pay attention, today's lesson is Civil War, Chap 1. How to

Initiate!

[Kagemusha]

23. I'm sad - you're not exaggerating at all. It should be hyperbole,

but.. it's not.

[Disturbed]

24. Were the Kurds that fought against Al Sadr...

Sunnis? The Kurds that have fought in Falluja and other cities, also Sunnis? By doing this, these factions have set themselves up as U.S. colabs. Allawi and his gang must have tight security. This move is a tinderbox and does not bode well for Iraq.

If the Kurds announce independance and Turkey attacks them what will the U.S. Govt. do about it?

[Jack Rabbit]

29. The Neocons are foolish if they try this

The Neocons are foolish if they think they can force Allawi back down the throats of the Iraqi people this way.

An anti-occupation slate won the election and will not be denied. Subterfuge will be met with open revolt.

[daleo]

32. I think they want partition

They probably think they can cut a deal with the Kurds - U.S. protection for Kurdistan in return for preferential access to oil, and relatively cheap prices. They probably think they can do the same thing later to get access to the southern oil around Basra.

Have they considered Turkey's response? Doubtful. Did they consider Turkey's response when they began this whole mad venture?

[Jack Rabbit]

34. Partition is okay with me if it's okay with the Iraqis

If that's what the Iraqis want, I don't give a tinker's damn what the neocons or the Turks think.

It's their country. Let them decide how it is to be governed. What this whole thread is about is how Bush and his aides are trying to mold Iraq into something they want without giving the Iraqis any real voice in their own affairs.

Bush is no more a friend of the Iraqi people than was Saddam.

[daleo]

37. If the Iraqis want partition, that should be their choice.

Such things have been done amicably in the past, although it hasn't been the norm. The splitting of Norway and Sweden early in the 20th century and Czech Republic and Slovakia late in the 20th century come to mind. Most others have been the product of warfare (i.e. breakup of the Austro-Hungarian Empire), and I suppose that would be the case here as well.

In this case, I think the majority of Kurds would want to separate and the majority of the rest of Iraq wouldn't want them to (if only over petroleum rights). Rather like the U.S., in the 1860's. It could get very ugly either way.

[JohnyCanuck]

43. Would the Sunni's go for it. They don't have much oil .

My understanding is that the areas where the Sunni Arab population is in the majority, i.e. central Iraq is largely devoid of oil and therefore if the country were to be split along Kurd, Sunni, Shia lines the Sunni Arab population would loose out in a big way on the oil revenues, unless of course they were to negotiate some type of deal with the Kurds and/or Shias to share the oil. However with tensions running high between the different groups, negotiating a deal to share oil revenues could be a tall order.

[Gloria]

35. Wonder if Rummy's visit was timed for this little maneuver??

eom

[Disturbed]

36. I have tried to follow the events in Iraq

but this one really perplexes me. This is a real turning point in my view. So far the U.S. Govt. has screwed over the Kurds at every turn and now Israel has operatives in their area. It will be quite interesting how this shakes out.

[Jack Rabbit]

38. Guess who else thinks he can still get some support out there?

Thread just opened anchored by a piece from The New York Times:
Chalabi Sees His Prospects on Rise Again.

[Disturbed]

39. Chalabi has something..

that keeps him safe and he will be in the power circle. He won't be arrested.

[paineinthearse]

42. How is that possible

Even if the #2 & 3 finishers form a coalition, their 115 seats are still 25 fewer than the #1 Shiite slate.

===============================================

http://www.guardian.co.uk/worldlatest/story/0,1280,-4797708,00.html

List of Leading Parties in Iraq Election

Sunday February 13, 2005 8:46 PM


BAGHDAD, Iraq (AP) - Here is a list of the political alliances receiving the most votes in Iraq's Jan. 30 national elections and the number of seats they will receive in the 275-member National Assembly, provided the results released Sunday are certified.

The United Iraqi Alliance (Shiite alliance backed by Shiite Muslim clergy): 4,075,295 - about 48 percent - for 140 seats.

The Kurdistan Alliance (coalition of two main Kurdish factions): 2,175,551 - about 26 percent - for 75 seats.

The Iraqi List (headed by interim Prime Minister Ayad Allawi): 1,168,943 - about 14 percent - for 40 seats.

Iraqis (headed by interim Iraqi President Ghazi al-Yawer): 150,680 for five seats.

The Turkomen Iraqi Front (represents the countries ethnic Turks): 93,480 for three seats.

National Independent Elites and Cadres Party: 69,938 for three seats.

The Communist Party: 69,920 for two seats.

The Islamic Kurdish Society: 60,592 for two seats.

The Islamic Labor Movement in Iraq: 43,205 for two seats.

The National Democratic Alliance: 36,795 for one seat.

National Rafidain List (Assyrian Christians): 36,255 for one seat.

The Reconciliation and Liberation Entity: 30,796 for one seat.

Iraqi Islamic Party (main Sunni group headed by Mohsen Abdel-Hamid): 21,342

Assembly of Independent Democrats (headed by Sunni elder statesman Adnan Pachachi): 12,728

National Democratic Party (headed by Naseer Kamel al-Chaderchi, Sunni lawyer and member of the former Iraqi Governing Council): 1,603

Total votes: 8,550,571

Invalid votes: 94,305

^---

Source: Iraq's election commission.

[LinuxInsurgent]

44. hahaha...

he's delusional if he thinks that he will keep the Prime Ministership...

I had expected the Kurds to side with the Shiites..but they may fear Shiite Islamism a lot more than i thought..

Either way...the Kurds don't have enough power to give Allawi the Prime Ministership...and in all fairness...the Shiites got the majority of votes...they should get the PM spot...if not, democracy becomes a mockery of the national will, as expressed through the elections.

How are we going to give 20-30 of the population the top position in government, and ignore the 60% Shiites?

It's not gonna happen...bet on it. Allawi won't be PM.

[Spazito]

49. Does anyone think this 'election' solves anything?

The Sunnis, in the majority, did not vote, the Kurds still want to separate, Iran is Shia as is the new ruling party, the US is still occupying Iraq and building permanent bases. What exactly has changed?

[Ravy]

50. Only in America.... (n/t)

[Chicago Democrat]

51. I smell election fraud! Why arent the Shiaa's a majority?

I thought the Sunnis stayed home and the Shiaas and Kurds voted in force! Shiaa's are a majority in population.. I don't get it.