STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday 10 February

[ozymandius]

Thursday February 10, 2005

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 3 YEARS, 344 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 4 YEARS, 59 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 3 YEARS, 115 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1173
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

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U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

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AT THE CLOSING BELL ON February 9, 2005

Dow... 10,664.11 -60.52 (-0.56%)
Nasdaq... 2,052.55 -34.13 (-1.64%)
S&P 500... 1,191.99 -10.31 (-0.86%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.98% -0.06 (-1.49%)
Gold future... 414.50 +0.20 (+0.05%)





GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie

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PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

[RawMaterials]

1. 7:48AM Commodity Update

Gold rose in London (413.80,+0.22%) from a four-month low as the market speculates the US trade data released today may be the second highest on record, thus weakening the value of the dollar and boosting the appeal of the safe-haven metal. Technically, gold's reluctance to challenge its 200-day moving average (414.6695) has come to a close with the precious metal falling through this important point as the dollar continues bullish trend....Silver has also cracked 200-day moving average, as recent bearish sentiment in the gold market has spilled over into the silver market...Crude posted gains overnight (46.10,+1.41%) as the IEA raised its demand expectations for 2005 and warned of slowing non-OPEC supply. The IEA has forecasted demand to rise 1.8% this year (1.52M barrels a day), 80K barrels a day more than forecasted last month. Russia, the world's second largest exporter of oil, is estimated to increase crude production by 3.8% this year, less than half of last year's growth rate.

[Blower]

54. How are steel prices doing, anyone? n/t

[54anickel]

66. From the Market Wrap up posted by Ozy -

I'd say they are doing quite well.

snip>

Metals companies, including steelmakers U.S. Steel and Nucor Corp. and Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold, Inc., owner of the world’s biggest gold mine, led the materials group to an average profit growth of 79%. U.S. Steel, the biggest steelmaker in the Americas, had a profit of $462 million, compared with a loss of $22 million a year earlier. Freeport’s net income rose to a record $227.6 million following $2.4 million a year ago."

[Blower]

67. Oh I meant more recently....

Steel prices going up with Gold and Silver again?

[Maeve]

2. Trade gap narrows, but 04 was a record year

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B66ED3400%2DECF0%2D48D8%2DA9BB%2DAA1D215ED735%7D&siteid=mktw


WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) - The trade deficit improved in December, but the American consumer's appetite for imported goods led to another record trade gap in 2004, the Commerce Department reported Thursday.

In December, the U.S. trade deficit narrowed by 4.9 percent to $56.4 billion.

The narrowing of the trade deficit was in line with the consensus forecast of Wall Street economists, who were expecting a deficit of $56.9 billion.

For all of 2004, the U.S. recorded a record trade deficit of $617.7 billion, or 5.3 percent of GDP. This compares with a deficit of $496.5 billion, or 4.5 percent of GDP in 2003.

[54anickel]

18. U.S. Trade Deficit Hits All-Time High (HA, the title line depends on

your perspective I guess)

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/050210/economy_7.html

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The U.S. trade deficit soared to a record of $617.7 billion last year as Americans' appetite for all things foreign from crude oil to imported cars hit all-time highs. The United States even rang up a deficit in farm goods as imports of wine, cheese and other food products hit a record.

The Commerce Department reported that the deficit for all of last year was 24.4 percent above the previous record, an imbalance of $496.5 billion in 2003. The U.S. deficit with China also set a record of $162 billion, up 30.5 percent from last year and the largest imbalance ever recorded with a single country.

The sharp worsening of America's performance in trade was certain to spark new political criticism of President Bush's economic policies. Democrats contend that the administration has not done enough to crack down on unfair foreign trade practices. These include China's currency policy, which U.S. manufacturers believe has deliberatively undervalued the yuan by as much as 40 percent, giving Chinese companies a huge competitive advantage over U.S. firms.

The trade deficit in December declined 4.9 percent to $56.4 billion. That compared to a revised November shortfall of $59.3 billion, which was still the all-time monthly high but down from a previously reported $60.3 billion.

The administration has argued that the U.S. deficits reflect the fact that America is growing at faster rates than the rest of the world, providing more demand for imported goods. But private economists worry that the deficit has reached such stratospheric levels that foreigners may decide they do not want to hold as much in dollar-denominated assets.

:eyes: I think they need to come up with a new "pick-up" line

more...

[Maeve]

3. Initial Claims fall to 4 year low

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The number of U.S. workers filing for state unemployment benefits dropped by 13,000 to a seasonally adjusted 303,000 in the week ending Feb. 5, the lowest in more than four years, the Labor Department reported Thursday.

The less-volatile four-week average of initial claims fell by 16,000 to 315,500, also the lowest in more than four years.

A Labor Department official said there were no special factors, such as weather or holidays, that affected the weekly figures.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B0D4BF748%2D0136%2D4655%2DAA0A%2DA956DB82DA9B%7D&siteid=mktw

[54anickel]

4. Morning Maeve, and happy Maeve Day!!! Nice to see you getting

back into the swing of things.

[54anickel]

5. Oh Ozy, I don't know whether to laugh or cry at today's toon...n/t

[54anickel]

6. China and the Final War for Resources

http://www.321energy.com/editorials/winston/winston020905.html

snip>

As China’s Master Plan to Destroy America manifesto outlines, the multifaceted battle plan recommended by the Chinese military has taken shape..…

Financially: Using Currency as the Primary Weapon

I hate to admit it, but the Chinese have done a masterful job. While America’s media is hypnotizing us with frivolous entertainment such as American Idol or The Amazing Race, they are totally ignoring the perilous economic time bomb the Chinese have placed against us. The Government of China is holding U.S. currency and Treasury notes in a $1.9 trillion Treasury bond trap. When they pull the trigger on their “primary weapon,” the dollar will crash and gold will break $600 in a heart beat and just keep going.

Political and Military Alliances

China has made several deals with OPEC countries whose ideology is very much anti-American. Headlining the list is Iran who President Bush recently singled out as "the world's primary state sponsor of terror pursuing nuclear weapons while depriving its people of the freedom they seek and deserve."

Also alliances have been made with Venezuela who are threatening to cut off oil exports to the U.S. entirely while giving China as much as it wants. These new deals China is making with these and other hostile OPEC countries also involve trading oil in euros not U.S. dollars. The dumping of U.S. dollars for euros would be devastating to an already weakening dollar.

China’s plan is both brilliant and deviously well planned. New alliances with radical groups, arms for oil deals with Iran, a new military build up, major acquisitions of large western resource companies such as Noranda are just a few of the multifaceted maneuvers now taking place.

more...

[MARALE]

9. I am afraid of China

But I think they can help keep presure on the Bush cartel to keep them from another war with Iran. I think we will be in for a surprise if we keep the way we are going.

[54anickel]

12. There are times I worry a bit about China, though certainly not as much

as I worry about what BeezleBush is doing to us. There are also times that I root for China, along with the rest of Asia. The west (especially the US) have exploited them for a long time. Rather than helping them develop into an equal partner, we've used them for our own gain. Much like a dysfunctional marriage. Heh, when you think about it that way - we treat them much like those "evil-doers" in the ME treat women. JMHO.

We live in interesting times. The world is changing and change can be a pretty scary thing.

[MARALE]

16. I think that is what scares me the most

I am rooting for them to put the pressure on the Bushes and USA. I watched a documentary a couple of days ago about Iran-Contra and was amazed at what the US does to the world for oil. We have done so many evil things in the world and I for one think a drastic change is needed to get people to care about this. I think change would be good, even if it may hurt a little. This country is like a big bully in the world, and I think it will be up to Asia to put a stop to it.

I agree, change is scary but is necessary.

[jswordy]

29. In 20 years, China will be the U.S. and the U.S. will be England...

..in terms of world economic clout and relative political power. Our "empire" is on the wane, our politicians of both parties are helping its demise, and China's newly minted 1,286,975,468 consumers are gonna kick our asses on a rising tide of wealth and buying.

Because we moved our manufacturing offshore, we won't be selling to those folks...we'll be buying from them. They'll make their own stuff for themselves, thank you, and manipulate money supplies and their share of our debt burden so that it will remain so. And as in any transaction, it is the buyer who forks over his money and the seller who makes the profit.

We are living in the final days of America's world influence. Our shortsightedness in financial matters and our spendthrift ways, from government right through to personal finance, will take us down.

There is a short window yet where we could have turned the corner. But we re-elected the government that got us in such a bind, anyway. We believe we can have it all!!! That sacrifice and saving are things of the past.

We rattle our military sabres and live under the illusion that they in their own right indicate our power. Just as England once did. And Rome before it. But one cannot turn plowshares into swords unless one possesses the money and economic clout to do so.

Asia will own us one day, or at least own us enough to have us cornered, as sure as I sit here typing this. It didn't have to be this way, and it doesn't have to be this way. But it will.

[ozymandius]

11. I almost hit the "alert' button on you.

But for all the wrong reasons. ;)

It almost apears as though the Bush cabal is in cahoots with other world powers, primarily totalitarian ones, to shred every bit of strength this nation once had.

[54anickel]

13. It's hard to figure out, isn't it? Is he in cahoots to destroy us or is

he just that STOOPID?
The ignorance plea just doesn't seem to fit anymore.

[MARALE]

17. His Dad is very close to them

I think there is something we don't know about behind the scenes. He can't be this stupid. I feel like I am paraniod, but something does not feel right.

[mojavekid]

23. They are amoral,

I could never accept the ignorance defense they are given, nor the more extreme conspiracy theories that abound. I believe it is driven by their own particular ideology of greed, and that they see themselves as above others, socially and economically. I even hesitate to credit them with the meme that they do it out of a sincere belief that they believe it is "Right" When America gets it's comeuppance, their (ass)ets will long have been safely invested in Asian companies and real estate. JMHO!

[54anickel]

24. Morning Mojavekid. I think you may be onto something there. They

just don't give a rat's ass. "I've got mine, that's all that matters". Another great multiple choice answer.

A) They are in cahoots to "destroy us"
B) They really are stoopid
C) They just don't give a rat's ass, so long as they win.

[mojavekid]

45. Good Morning 54anickel!,

Thanks, I just get the feeling that many explanations I hear and read, give them a pass, and only "excuse" their behavior. I want to see them held Responsible for their actions. I do not see this as the behavior of all businessmen as is being said - and I am one of "Them" Though the mind set is not unique to the Bush Family.

By the by, I want to say again what a fantastic job, you, Ozy, Up in Arms, Maeve, Julie, et all do here, I look forward to it every day, and it is my first stop.:yourock:

[jswordy]

30. They are amoral, because they are businessmen...

...and business is amoral. It seeks profit, and nothing else. Everything else is irrelevent.

[54anickel]

34. I wouldn't want to lump ALL businessmen and businesses into that

category, otherwise I agree, most major corporations fit that mold.

[jswordy]

37. Businessmen seek profit above all else, or...

...they will not be businessmen for long.

[54anickel]

38. Yes, they need profit to survive, it was the "everything else is

irrelevant" comment I was taking issue with. I just think that's a bit harsh to apply to all businessmen and businesses.

[mojavekid]

46. "Here, Here!!"

n/t

[MARALE]

7. Crude Oil Gains as IEA Says Demand Rising Faster Than Expected

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000086&sid=a7vqSyfC1Zsc&refer=latin_america

Crude oil rose for a third day after the International Energy Agency said demand is increasing faster than expected while growth in Russian supply is slowing.

Oil demand will rise 1.8 percent this year, or 1.52 million barrels a day, 80,000 barrels a day more than anticipated last month, the Paris-based IEA said. Oil prices surged 34 percent last year as oil consumption climbed at its fastest pace in almost three decades.

``The market is much tighter than the numbers had suggested before,'' said Paul Horsnell, head of energy research at Barclays Capital in London. ``The IEA is becoming more optimistic about demand and more realistic about non-OPEC supply.''
<SNIP>
``There's a continuing drift in the forecast to take a more pessimistic view on Russian output,'' Horsnell said. ``The direction is primarily more demand growth and less supply growth.''

[54anickel]

8. The times are out of whack (I can relate to this feeling)

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/russell/russell021005.html

snip>

Nevertheless, I'm going to unload my emotions (I'd rather call them intuitions) on you, my beloved subscribers. Here goes -- I have the feeling that "things" just aren't going right. Too many people are now struggling to make ends meet. Too many people are having a hard time making a living in jobs they don't like. Too many people can't find any jobs at all. Too many people are finding that they can't afford to retire. As a result, many people in their 50s and 60s are taking jobs or at least looking for jobs. Younger people (and I meet a lot of them) are holding two and even three low-paying jobs just to stay afloat. Too many people are too deep in debt. Too many people are living in homes they can't afford. There's too big a division between the American rich and the American middle and lower-middle class. There's too much spread in salaries between workers and CEOs. To put it succinctly, I get the feeling that "the times are out of whack."
Meanwhile, the war in Iraq drags on. The US deficits and debts continue. The President's "approval ratings" drops below 50 percent. Housing turnover is beginning to slow. Nobody can agree on Social Security. The Democratic party deteriorates and the Dems fail to even come up with a presentable leader.

"What's it all about, Alfie?" And the answer is, "Who knows, maybe Russell just got up today on the wrong side of bed." But you know something -- I don't think so.

Hey, the market advisors are still cheery. The latest count from Investor's Intelligence shows bulls at 54.4% and bears at 25.3%. Those are hardly gloomy statistics (the problem, of course, is that we read these statistics on a contrary opinion basis).

Nevertheless, I get this feeling that almost everything is up and "over the top." The nation's wild optimism is almost exhausted. Suddenly, reality is starting to slap America's consumers in the face. "Hey, wake up Buddy, there's a crack in the punch bowl and the juice is running out."

[Barrett808]

48. US net liabilities increased by $11 trillion in 2004

From $34.8 trillion in 2003 to $45.9 trillion in 2004.

Should we be concerned about this?

Road to Ruin
http://www.sprott.com/pdf/marketsataglance/01-17-2005.pdf

[54anickel]

60. GACK!!! Thanks for the link - I'll have to look it over later tonight

when I get back home.

Should we be concerned about this? Heh, I'm sure Cheney would tell you it's nothing to worry about. :evilgrin:

When this mal-admin tells you not to worry, be very, very afraid.

[Barrett808]

72. Have you come to any conclusions?

It looks really, really bad to me.

[54anickel]

73. Scary as hell, especially this end part -

One last point we would like to make with regards to the “2004 Financial Report of the United States Government”, are the endless qualifications in the audit opinion given by the Comptroller General. For those of you unfamiliar with auditing, a qualified auditor’s opinion is a bad thing. If the financials are clean and in accordance with GAAP, then an audit opinion is only a few paragraphs and is unqualified. The Comptroller General’s opinion has qualifications galore and runs for 25 pages, citing material accounting deficiencies,
weaknesses in internal controls, and even makes mention of the growing fiscal imbalance. If a corporation were to get such a horrendous audit opinion, it would be bankrupt and doomed. There would be public inquiries and lawsuits by shareholders and employees, and the general public would be up in arms. Isn’t it strange how we don’t hold the governments that manage trillions of our tax dollars to the same standards?

We’ll end this piece by taking a fitting quote from the Comptroller General’s audit opinion starting on page 35: “In addition, while the size of the nation’s long-term fiscal imbalance grew significantly during the fiscal year, the retirement of the “baby boom” generation is closer to becoming a reality. Given these and other factors, it seems clear that the nation’s current fiscal path is unsustainable and that tough choices by the President and the Congress will be necessary in order to address the nation’s large and growing fiscal
imbalance.”

[Barrett808]

74. $45.9 trillion in net liabilities -- It boggles the mind

I'm starting to think the US is being run into what the mafia calls a "bust-out": you know a financial entity is going to fail, so you run up all the credit lines and liquidate all assets, then get out of Dodge and leave the empty husk to collapse.

I've started referring to Iraq and Social Security "reform" as the Bush mob's "asset-stripping instruments."

[ozymandius]

10. WrapUp by Mike Hartman

FEDERAL RESERVE OPENS DOOR TO "SLOW" MEASURED RATE INCREASES

The broad stock averages struggled throughout the day as money moved out of stocks and into the perceived safety of the bond market. A climate of rising interest rates and more importantly, the prospect of an economic slowdown have put a bid of caution into stocks as rising bond prices signal a slowdown ahead. Technology shares were under the most pressure after Cisco System’s earnings rose, but missed some Wall Street targets and Merrill Lynch said, in spite of some progress in clearing swollen inventories, oversupply could continue to haunt chipmakers through 2005. Cisco shares fell $0.61 to $17.63, Intel dropped 11 cents to close at $23.30, and the Sox Index led the pack of decliners with a loss of 2.2% to close at 417.92.

-cut-

Dollar, Bonds, and Fed-Speak

Treasury notes and bonds are catching a decent bid today with the five, ten and thirty-year prices higher by roughly 0.45% across the board. This is a good thing for the U.S. Treasury in lieu of their need for financing this week. Yesterday the Treasury sold $22 billion of three-year notes and indirect bidders, who include foreign central banks, bought 44% of the offering, down from 53.6% in the previous auction. The bid-to-cover ratio (a measure of demand) fell from 2.24:1 in November to 2.01:1 in yesterday’s auction. Today the Treasury sold $15 billion in five-year notes, but I don’t have the info yet on indirect bidders or the bid-to-cover ratio. The warning signs will come if indirect bidders fall below 40% or if the bid-to-cover falls below 2:1.

Tomorrow’s auction of $14 billion in 10-year notes will be closely watched for demand, as the longer maturities seem to generate less demand at the auctions. One particular quote in a Bloomberg article caught my attention with regard to expected demand. “There is no value in investing in 10-year Treasuries at these levels,” said Kazuaki Oh’e, a Tokyo-based bond salesman at CIBC World Markets Corp. “There is little need to buy and we don’t expect to see very much demand at the auction.” One of the CNBC commentators made an interesting statement this morning when he said, “They have to buy our bonds to support the dollar, and now they are buying bonds because the dollar is strengthening.” Not so fast Joe! The jury is still out on this little dollar bounce.

In fact, the dollar slid fractionally today after comments from Atlanta Federal Reserve President Jack Guynn suggested the Federal Reserve will change their language in future Fed statements by removing or changing the terms “measured” and “accommodative.” The market is interpreting his statement in a way that has the Fed slowing down on the rate increases. Guynn’s comments clearly had a negative effect on the dollar and opened the door for further gains in bond prices. The Feds would be crazy to invert the yield curve, so they are now softening their stance on measured rate increases. Long-term rates refuse to move higher as the bond market broadcast economic weakness down the road.

more...

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[Maeve]

14. 9:35 and here we go!

Dow 10,700.69 +36.58 (+0.34%)
Nasdaq 2,058.11 +5.56 (+0.27%)
S&P 500 1,195.44 +3.45 (+0.29%)
10-Yr Bond 40.21 +0.44 (+1.11%)

[nolabels]

31. My off the cuff calculation is the DOW is quite below 10,000

Figuring all the funny money they are printing (or making up) inflation is running at rampant pace and is not being reported or calculated. They are using old figures to figure out todays results (Dang fuzzy math again x( )

[54anickel]

15. Treasurys dented by economic data

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/yhoo/story.asp?source=blq/yhoo&siteid=yhoo&dist=yhoo&guid=%7BE07245E3%2DBD21%2D429B%2DA03C%2D40ED8C3613C8%7D

Treasurys dented by economic data
Jobless claims fall, while trade gap narrows as expected

CHICAGO (CBS.MW) - The benchmark 10-year Treasury note extended its loss Thursday in reaction to upbeat U.S. economic reports on unemployment benefits and the trade deficit.

snip>

The price decline elevated the note's yield ($TNX: news, chart, profile) , a key influence on mortgage and corporate borrowing rates, to 4.03 percent from 3.98 percent on Wednesday.

Before Wednesday, the yield hadn't closed below 4 percent since October. The yield was pushed there as bondholders remain comfortable with Federal Reserve interest-rate policy and its effectiveness, so far, in keeping inflation contained. Inflation eats away at the value of fixed interest payments collected on bond investments.

snip>

Still, the number of workers continuing to receive benefits rose by 47,000 to a seasonally adjusted 2.737 million, the government report showed. The four-week average of continuing claims rose by 22,500 to 2.734 million. See Economic Report.

"There will likely be some payback next week," said Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist with High Frequency Economics.

"Still, the trend in the data clearly shows that lack of hiring, not excessive firings, is the key problem for the labor market."

more...

[54anickel]

22. US Treasuries hit by profit-taking, data a burden

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=bondsNews&storyID=7594153

snip>

NEW YORK, Feb 10 (Reuters) - Treasury debt prices extended early losses on Thursday as government data showed signs of improvement in the long lackluster labor market and a pullback in the nation's trade deficit.

Initial jobless claims fell to 303,000 last week when analysts had looked for a rise to 325,000. That was the lowest reading in four years and suggested the next payrolls report could prove more robust than the disappointing January reading.

The December trade deficit narrowed to $56.4 billion against forecasts of $57 billion, while November's shortfall was revised to a smaller $59.33 billion. That in turn suggested some risk of an upward revision to fourth quarter GDP, though analysts noted that the real, inflation adjusted deficit had not narrowed nearly as much.

Longer-dated debt was already under pressure from profit-taking and the benchmark 10-year note (US10YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) slipped 10/32, lifting yields to 4.04 percent from 3.99 percent. Yields on the two-year note (US2YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) rose to 3.27 percent from 3.25 percent.

[MARALE]

19. Dollar's broad rally renewed

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?column=Currencies&siteid=google&dist=

The dollar began the global trading day lower, falling against the yen after the Japanese government upgraded its assessment of a leading indicator for capital investment and raised hopes about the strength of Japan's economic recovery.

Japan's Cabinet Office said core machinery orders, a volatile leading indicator of corporate capital investment, fell 8.8 percent on month in December, in line with most economists' forecasts.

But the government upgraded its outlook for machinery orders for the first time in a month to "improving" from "weakening," according to Dow Jones Newswires.


Look at the dollar now, a straight line down. What happened?

[54anickel]

20. Dollar Watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0&v=s

Last trade 85.05 Change +0.03 (+0.04%)

Settle 85.02 Settle Time 23:37

Open 84.90 Previous Close 85.02

High 85.44 Low 84.83

The March Dollar was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates below the 38% retracement level of the May-December decline crossing at 85.41. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and have turned neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. If March extends this year's short covering rally, the reaction high crossing at 85.75 then the 50% retracement level of last year's decline crossing at 86.93 are the next upside targets. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 83.86 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to weaker tone in early-day session trading.

The March Euro was slightly lower overnight in subdued trading as it consolidates above the 50% retracement level of the April-December rally crossing at 127.290. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold, diverging and have turned neutral hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. If March extends this year's decline, the 62% retracement level of the April-December rally crossing at 125.037 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 129.199 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to weaker tone in early-day session trading.

snip>

The March Canadian Dollar was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates above the 38% retracement level of the May-November rally crossing at .7988. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. If March extends January's decline, the 50% retracement level of the May- November rally crossing at .7822 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at .8033 would signal that a short-term low has likely been posted. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to firmer tone in early-day session trading.

The March Japanese Yen was lower overnight and is extending this week's breakout below the 38% retracement level of last year's rally crossing at .9494 and December's low crossing at .9476. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish but becoming oversold hinting that a low might be near. Multiple closes below December's low crossing at .9476 would confirm a downside breakout of this winter's trading range while opening the door for a possible test of the 50% retracement level of last year's rally crossing at .9374. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at .9592 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to weaker tone in early-day session trading.


http://www.forexnews.com/NA/default.asp?f=N20050210B&cm=&cy=&ad=2/10/2005&cd=a10
FX Await US Trade Flows

At 8:30 AM Canada December International Trade Balance (exp C$ 6.0bln, prev C$ 5.4bln) US December Trade Balance (exp -$52.0bln, prev -$60.0bln) US Initial Jobless Claims (exp 325k, prev 316k) At 2:00 PM Minneapolis Fed President Stern Speaks
Another Fed coming out to speak? Man they've been busy little bees this week

Currencies traded sideways overnight as markets await the release of US trade balance data later in the session. The greenback may receive a slight boost if the deficit shrinks beneath the consensus forecast of $52.0 bln for December, following November’s record $60 bln deficit. Forexnews expect the trade deficit to have eased to $53 billion partly due to the stabilization in prices in November-December. The dollar could also be strengthened by another strong foreign participation in Thursday’s 10-year treasury auction if it produces a participation rate of above 40%.

Euro Trades Sideways

The ECB’s February monthly bulletin stated there was no evidence of a build-up in underlying Eurozone inflationary pressures. It said that conditions remain in place for economic growth to accelerate. The bulletin also said the Bank would maintain continued vigilance in the medium-term to inflation risks. The February bulletin, for the most part, echoed last week’s policy statement.

Separately, according to an ECB survey, the Eurozone’s inflation expectation for 2005 is 1.9%, unchanged from the previous survey. The inflation forecast for 2006 however, was downwardly revised to 1.8%, down slightly from 1.9%. It expects 2005 real GDP lower than previously forecasted at 1.8%, rather than the Q4 forecast of 2.0%.

EURUSD traded narrowly overnight, backing away from its session highs. Resistance is seen at 1.28, followed by 1.2830 and 1.2850. Additional ceilings are seen emerging at 1.29, followed by 1.2925 and 1.2960. Support starts at 1.2750, backed by 1.2735 and 1.27. Subsequent floors will emerge at 1.2660, followed by 1.2620 and 1.26.

BoE Unchanged

more...

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000086&sid=a2hOr2ntD3No&refer=latin_america
Gold Rises in London on Forecast for Near-Record U.S. Trade Gap

Feb. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Gold rose from a four-month low in London on speculation a report may show the U.S. trade deficit was the second-highest on record, eroding the value of the dollar and boosting the metal's appeal as an alternative.

The projected deficit in goods and services trade may have fallen to $57 billion in December from a record $60.3 billion the previous month, according to the median estimate of 69 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Gold rose 1.1 percent Jan. 12 after the deficit widened more than expected in November, sending the dollar lower against the euro.

``The focus today is on the U.S. trade figures, which are likely to set the short-term tone for the dollar,'' James Moore, of the U.K.-based BullionDesk.com, said in an e-mail. ``Dollar weakness could lift gold above $415, to test $418.''

snip>

``If there's a slight narrowing in the trade deficit, it's still going to be the second-largest and that's not going to bode well for the dollar,'' said Ian Stannard, a currency strategist at BNP Paribas SA in London.

more...

[MARALE]

21. So, was the narrowing slight?

I know it is still a large gap, but I thought the 4.9% narrowing is a good thing. What would it have to have been to strengthen the dollar?

edit: had "rhw" instead of "the" finger slip

[54anickel]

26. I have no clue anymore. JMHO, but it's going to take more than a

simple narrowing of the trade gap to strengthen the buck. The trade gap is only part of it. There's the why is it narrowing - are US exports going up (good thing - to bad we don't really make much of anything anymore though) OR is it because we are importing less (that would mean consumerism is slowing down - not a good sign for global economic growth since consumerism is claimed to be 2/3 of our economy now).

One month of data doesn't make a trend either, so for any narrowing of the trade gap to help the dollar, it would have to continue for a couple of months, again is it caused by an increase in exports or a decrease in imports.

Then there's that nasty current account deficit, you know the one Cheney says Reagan proved didn't matter. We only owe it to ourselves :crazy: Pretty tough to make any progress there with a war on 2 fronts, a war-mongering administration and a war declared on an ideology - tough to define the enemy or limit the theater. Of course, they don't want you to think about that so SS has become the communist, socialist enemy that is to blame for the current account deficit.

Then there's the problem of the low interest we are paying on our debt, along with the low gains our equity markets have to offer - especially when measured in the foreign currency invested. As the dollar drops, so does the value of those equities for foreign investors. Tough to draw anyone into investing in the buck these days for sound return reasons, they're only investing to keep their currencies competitive.

So, how much of a narrowing would it take to strengthen the buck? It would have to be huge enough to overcome all of these other issues. I just don't see the buck's downward trend changing on this figure alone. It may get a slight bump from it now and then, but the trade gap in and of itself would reverse the long-term trend. Again, JMHO.

[spotbird]

25. It just took a sharp turn south.

Wonder what's up (beside gold)?

[54anickel]

27. Not sure. Is BeezleBush or someone yammering this morning? We've

got that strange thing going on right now where gold is rising along with interest rates. Certainly not a trend yet, but that's usually not a sign of a healthy buck. :shrug:

[54anickel]

43. Update 1: Dollar Slides Against Euro

http://www.forbes.com/home/feeds/ap/2005/02/10/ap1818777.html

The U.S. dollar lost ground against the euro Thursday after the Commerce Department reported that the U.S. trade deficit soared to an all-time high last year.

snip>

The U.S. currency has slipped after days of gains fueled by market optimism that the United States is getting serious about tackling its trade and budget deficits.

snip>

The euro dipped under $1.28 on Monday for the first time since Nov. 5 after President Bush sent Congress a $2.57 trillion budget for 2006 that he described as "lean."

The dollar also has been boosted by comments last Friday from U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan suggesting that the United States was coming to grips with its huge trade deficit. Traders interpreted Greenspan's comments as a sign that the dollar doesn't necessarily have to weaken to shrink the U.S. current account deficit.

Still, economists are skeptical as to whether the dollar can hang on to its gains in the long term.

more...

[54anickel]

28. 10:49 and Nasdaq is disappointed again

Dow 10,697.29 +33.18 (+0.31%)
Nasdaq 2,044.21 -8.34 (-0.41%)
S&P 500 1,193.05 +1.06 (+0.09%)
10-yr Bond 4.013% +0.04
30-yr Bond 4.406% +0.04
NYSE Volume 375,983,000
Nasdaq Volume 581,393,000


10:30AM : Equities remain on the offensive as the bulk of sector leadership remains positive... Virtually every sector has shrugged off some of yesterday's drubbing, with strength in semiconductor (+0.9%), following a number of analyst upgrades, so far offsetting weakness in software and hardware... Energy (+1.1%) has also been strong following a 2.6% surge in crude oil futures ($46.70/bbl +$1.24), on the heels of recent crude supply data, while financial, materials, retail, transportation and drug have posted modest gains...
Telecom services, however, despite further sector consolidation, has been modestly weak while homebuilding been under modest selling pressure... NYSE Adv/Dec 1646/1168, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1412/1197

10:00AM : Major indices continue to sport modest gains in the wake of better than expected earnings, ahead of Dell's widely anticipated report tonight... Aetna (AET 134.60 +6.05) has reported Q4 earnings of $1.82, beating forecasts by $0.04 and raised its FY05 EPS outlook while Office Depot (ODP 18.12 +0.60) has beaten Q4 expectations by $0.10 with earnings of $0.30 but has said it will no longer issue formal business performance and earnings guidance...

Waste Management (WMI 29.79 +0.10) has beaten analysts' Q4 forecasts by $0.02 but sees FY05 earnings at the "lower end of the current analyst range" of $1.56-1.80 (consensus $1.64)... May Department Stores (MAY 31.85 +0.33), despite missing forecasts by $0.04, has found buying interest after boosting its dividend... NYSE Adv/Dec 1559/935, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1401/965

9:40AM : Stocks open on an upbeat note following encouraging economic data... Weekly jobless claims fell 13K to 303K (consensus 325K), the lowest level in four years and below 324K for the fourth consecutive week... The data indicate that layoffs are low enough to allow a modest uptrend in hiring to produce net payroll gains consistent with real GDP growth of 3-3 1/2%...

While the December trade balance came in at -$56.4 bln, slightly better than an expected deficit of $57.0 bln and narrower than the revised -$59.3 bln figure in November, the data was large enough to give the U.S. the largest imbalance ever recorded... But the slightly improved Dec data, albeit still at a very high level, should help in the GDP calculations and was respectable enough so as not to agitate the equity markets...

9:15AM : S&P futures vs fair value: +2.8. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +3.5. Expectations for a relatively higher start for equities remain intact despite continued gains in oil prices ($46.21/bbl +$0.75)... Japan's Nikkei closed at a seven-week high yesterday, while other major Asian markets were closed for the new year holiday, as European markets post modest gains in the early going

[54anickel]

32. “Not Free, Not Fair” An Update on the Gold Cartel (There's that damned ESF

again! Maybe they are trying to rescue the US dollar this time instead of the peso, sort of a SSDC (same shit, different currency)

http://www.kitcocasey.com/displayArticle.php?id=22

When it comes to discussing gold price, John Embry doesn’t mince words. Last August, the Chief Investment Strategist for Sprott Asset Management put out a report on systematic manipulation of the gold market—something he believes has been going on for a long time—entitled simply, “Not Free, Not Fair”.

The document is a sort of X-Files of gold trading, delving into the seamy underworld of international finance, where banks report phantom gold and the world’s most powerful financiers cut secret deals with each other to advance their agendas. But this is no television show: Embry details over 60 pages of facts, stats, and expert commentary on the actions of the “gold cartel”, challenging conventional wisdom that gold trades under market forces.

The situation now, his report notes, is similar to the late sixties and early seventies, when a conglomerate of European banks known as the London Gold Pool joined forces with the U.S. Federal Reserve to keep the gold price fixed at $35/oz. Member banks contributed gold bullion into a pool that could be sold onto the market when the gold price started to rise. Thus any incipient gold run ups were stopped dead. Central banks today are similarly flooding the market periodically with gold, states Embry’s report, the only difference being that then “the management of gold price was out in the open,” whereas today “everything is occurring in a covert fashion.”

As evidence of this hidden intervention, Embry points to the fact that several promising gold rallies over the last few years have coincided with announcements of gold sales from central banks that immediately caused the gold price to plunge. He also delves into the bookkeeping of the U.S. Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF) – a body that has a stated mission of maintaining price stability in foreign exchange markets. Although the Fund claims not to trade any gold on behalf of the U.S. Treasury, analysts like James Turk have speculated that it may in fact be doling out gold to strategically depress prices. As Embry points out, a recent lawsuit against the ESF alleging its involvement in gold price-fixing revealed discrepancies between gold on its books and gold in its vaults. He quotes plaintiff Reg Howe (of Golden Sextant Advisors, a gold investment banking service) as saying that the suspicious numbers, “imply corresponding gold trading activities by the ESF.”

The real victims of this price management, says Embry, are small gold traders who believe they are buying and selling in a free market and have been kept from realizing their rightful gains. Mining companies have also suffered, he notes, because of the sluggish prices that manipulation creates.

more...



Here's a bit on the ESF and the peso crisis (same article quoted earlier this week - Tequila trap beckons China)
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/FK06Ad01.html


snip>
In the weekend before Mexico's pending dollar default, the US government took the lead in developing an emergency rescue package. The package put together by the Fed under Alan Greenspan and the Treasury under Robert Rubin, a former co-chairman of Goldman Sachs and a consummate bond trader, included short-term currency swaps from the Fed and the Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF), a commitment from Mexico to an IMF-imposed economic austerity program for $4 billion in IMF loans, and a moratorium on Mexico's principal payments to foreign commercial banks, mostly US, with Fed regulatory forbearance on resultant bank capital adjustments that affected bank profits. It also included $5 billion in additional commercial bank loans, additional dollar liquidity support from central banks in Europe and Japan and pre-payment by the US to Mexico for $1 billion in oil and a $1 billion line of credit from the US department of agriculture.

The ESF was established by Section 20 of the Gold Reserve Act of January 1934, with a $2-billion initial appropriation. Its resources have been subsequently augmented by special drawing rights (SDR) allocations by the IMF and through its income over the years from interest on short-term investments and loans, and net gains on foreign currencies. The ESF engages in monetary transactions in which one asset is exchanged for another, such as foreign currencies for dollars, and can also be used to provide direct loans and guarantees to other countries. ESF operations are under the control of the secretary of the treasury, subject to the approval of the president.

ESF operations include providing resources for exchange-market intervention. The ESF has also been used to provide short-term swaps and guarantees to foreign countries needing financial assistance for short-term currency stabilization. The short-term nature of these transactions has been emphasized by amendments to the ESF statute requiring the president to notify Congress if a loan or credit guarantee is made to a country for more than six months in any 12-month period. Short-term currency swaps are repurchase-type agreements through which currencies are exchanged. Mexico purchased dollars in exchange for pesos and simultaneously agreed to sell dollars against pesos three months hence. The US earned interest on its Mexican pesos at a specified rate.

It was Bear Stearns chief economist Wayne Angell, a former Fed governor and advisor to then Senate majority leader Bob Dole, who first came up with the idea of using the ESF to prop up the collapsing Mexican peso. Bear Stearns, a Wall Street giant, had significant exposure to peso debts. Senator Robert Bennett, a freshman Republican from Utah, took Angell's proposal to Greenspan and Rubin. Both rejected the idea at first, shocked at the blatant circumvention of constitutional procedures that this strategy represented, which would invite certain reprisal from Congress.

Congress had implicitly rejected a rescue package that January when the initial administration proposal of extending Mexico $40 billion in loan guarantees could not pass. The chairman of the Fed advised Bennett that the idea would only work if Congress's silence could be guaranteed. Bennett went to Dole and convinced him that the whole scam would work if the majority leader would simply block all efforts to bring this use of taxpayers' money to a vote. It would all happen by executive fiat. The next step was to persuade Dole and his counterpart in the House, Speaker Newt Gingrich. They consulted several state governors, notably then Texas governor George W Bush, who enthusiastically endorsed the idea of a bailout to subsidize the border region in his state. Greenspan, who historically opposed bailouts of the private sector for fear of incurring moral hazard, was clearly in a position to stop this one. Instead, he used his considerable power and influence to help the process along when key players balked. Moral hazard infected not only the banking system, but also the political system making a mockery of the constitution. Few in Washington were prepared to be reminded that it was this kind of systemic corruption in the name of the common good that had brought down the Roman Empire.


http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/FK06Ad01.html

[nolabels]

33. Why is this not even a surprise at all?

Make up phony votes, make up phony gold and make up phony wars. There seems to be a pattern developing here I think :crazy:

[54anickel]

35. You forgot to mention the phony president....n/t

[nolabels]

39. Phony government and budget too

No one will be held accountable till there is run on the banks. It happened in Argentina just recently. The US seems to be going on similar trajectory but on a much larger scale.

I am kind of wondering what will happen first, war or economic collapse

[54anickel]

40. My guess, with the current mal-administration would be war. Unless

by some chance the rest of the world can catch them off-guard and initiate an economic collapse. Who would have the stomach for that? Got me, maybe a co-ordinated effort. Seems to be what the rest of the world is attempting to prepare for. :shrug:

[Trish1168]

57. Read Mr. Turk's book

I read his recent book about the collapse of the dollar and how to profit from it. He talks about the manipulation of the gold markets by the central banks. I strongly believe they are doing this...and they intend further manipulation. The G7 recently announced that they want to help 3rd world countries by selling gold. When I read this I thought....hmmm...its interesting that when the dollar is shakey, they get this sudden charitable impulse! Since when do they care so much about the third world?

In any case....the manipulation of gold can only go so far. He says that it will ultimately result in a contraction.

I am happy for now that they are going to increase the supply of gold in order to drive down the prices. I want to liquidate (my real estate) in order to make the appropriate investments (mainly gold mining stocks and precious metal mutual funds). His book, in my opinion, is right on the money (pun intended). But I need the time they are buying me.

[54anickel]

36. Another night in the Bunker of Fear (Mogambo)

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/daughty/daughty021005.html

snip>

Hell, the entire liability of the banks is only about $4 trillion, which the Fed and the Treasury could easily produce in an afternoon, with plenty of time to run down to the bar and get really drunk in case the damn Mogambo calls up and starts that screaming thing about how all that new money is going to cause price inflation, and how it is inflation that is going to eat us alive, and that there is a big Mogambo lesson (BML) inherent in the French Revolution, which was caused by the ruinous inflation that was caused by this selfsame monetary idiocy, and the French people were chopping off the damn heads of their butthead bankers and government minions, and that maybe, just maybe, the damn Federal Reserve ought to think about THAT the next time they are printing up all this excess money and credit to desperately try and buy their way out of the problems that they have caused by printing up the excess money and credit in the first damn place!

But we are not anywhere near the historical average on bank reserves, and maybe we don't really need them when you have a fiat currency in a banking system that is this corrupt. They can just print as much money as they want. So don't get too excited and start thinking that this shows some renewed prudent banking behavior (The Mogambo puts back his head and laughs that scornful laugh of bitter contempt and disrespect (SLOBCAD), which sounds sort of like "Hahahaha, jerks!"), as the total reserves in the banks have been going down and staying down for most of Greenspan's term as chairman of the Fed, even as deposits and liabilities have soared. They have simply stopped going down. But they are still absurdly low. In fact, reserves would have to almost quadruple from here just to be back to the low end of the "normal" range, figured as a percentage of deposits.

I assume that this is all window dressing for the benefit of the G-7, who are our creditors, like when I pick up the old pizza boxes and fried-chicken bones up off the floor before the social worker comes by, and I take all those empty liquorbottles and put them in the neighbor's garbage can so it looks like HE is the loudmouth lush who is screaming in a drunken fury all night long about Federal Reserve policy.

But since some things never change, I am able to report that the Treasury Department is still sinking us into oceans of debt via a surprisingly linear program, which works out to an almost constant $50 billion of new debt per month. The chart of the growth of Total Fed Credit goes up in an almost straight line since June of 2002. It is the most amazing thing I have ever seen. Of course, there are many of you out there who are so adept at math that you can easily multiply $50 billion a month times twelve months to give us an annual estimate of new debt, and when you do, all us math-challenged idiots out here stagger to our feet and applaud. So, I, as one of those math-challenged idiots, get up and walk over to where one of these savants is sitting, and I peek over his shoulder and look at his answer sheet. This is how I know that this comes to $600 billion a year, which is a long, long, LONG way from the asinine lies and distortions otherwise known as The Bush Budgets.

snip>

- Rumor has it that 99N, the mysterious trader who always comes roaring into the futures market and buys whole carloads of SP500 futures whenever there is a risk of the market going down in any substantial way, is back at it full time. The paranoid fruitcakes among us (and leap to my feet and with a loud, irritating voice proudly announce, "I am Mogambo, their king!"), believe that this is the Fed itself intervening in the market to keep it up. And if I was as desperate and scared as they are, then I am not sure that I wouldn't do the same thing, assuming that I was a cowardly, gutless, retarded corrupt little weasel, which, of course, I am.

Their skills may be sorely tested, as the shape of the graph of the earnings of the SP500 has an unmistakable aroma (similar to the smell of the Mogambo feet (MF), only without the rancid undertone) of rolling over. Oops! And if earning are not going up, then the chances of the stock market going up strongly from here are, if you are the kind of person who rounds things off, zero. Maybe not in the very short run, where all kinds of magical, miraculous, things are possible to infinitely-capitalized entities like 99N, but in the longer run, where titanic forces always overwhelm such manipulations.

more...

[54anickel]

41. 1:03 numbers, blather and the buck

Dow 10,710.89 +46.78 (+0.44%)
Nasdaq 2,051.54 -1.01 (-0.05%)
S&P 500 1,194.41 +2.42 (+0.20%)
10-yr Bond 4.035% +0.06
30-yr Bond 4.43% +0.06
NYSE Volume 795,369,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,187,780,000

1:00PM : More of the same as the major averages continue to vacillate in roughly the same ranges... Semiconductor has been resilient following a handful of positive analyst comments as a rebound in the SOX (+0.7%) over the last hour has kept the Semi Index close to its 50-day moving average... Banc of America has upgraded the Analog/PLD sector (i.e. NSM and ALTR) to Neutral from Underweight as revenue forecasts now largely reflect the ongoing inventory drawdown process...
ThinkEquity has upgraded INTC (+0.7%) to Buy and raised its ratings on the likes of TXN (+1.1%), LSI (+2.6%) and ATML (+1.3%) to Accumulate, citing a generally improving environment for analog chips, positive Asian news and diminishing risk to 2005... NYSE Adv/Dec 1623/1560, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1323/1656

12:30PM : Little changed since the last update as the market holds a faintly bearish bias... Decliners on the NYSE hold a slim 16 to 15 edge over advancers while declining issues on the Nasdaq outpace advancing issues by wider 17 to 12 margin... The ratio of down to up volumes, however, reflects more of a mixed tone, as down volumes hold a roughly 2 to 1 advantage on the Composite but have matched up volumes on the Big Board...

Meanwhile, the S&P 500 has recently found modest buying support above yesterday's low and 50 day moving average (1191) while the Nasdaq continues to trade right at Wednesday's low (2051), after running into resistance near 2060/2062 about two hours ago...NYSE Adv/Dec 1537/1603, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1232/1707

12:00PM : Market remains mixed midday following solid earnings reports and encouraging economic data... The majority of notable earnings reports (i.e. AET, ODP, WMI) have come in better than expected but have so far only provided a boost to blue chips, as much of the market awaits a Q4 report from Dell (DELL 41.36 +0.37) after the close and overall sentiment remains somewhat cautious...

An unexpected drop in jobless claims (to 303K versus forecasts of 325K) and a narrowing trade deficit (to -$56.4 bln from Nov's record figure of -$59.3 bln) has been fairly well received by investors but loathed by bond traders, as treasuries have continued to tumble... The benchmark 10-year note is off 12 ticks to yield 4.03%, taking some steam out of interest-rate sensitive issues like homebuilding and utility... Surging oil prices ($46.85 +1.39) have also limited gains on the Big Board and fueled modest selling pressure in technology... Energy (+1.6%), however, has taken advantage of higher oil while the materials sector has embraced a weaker dollar and higher gold prices ($419.10/oz. +1.1%)...

Semiconductor, while holding onto modest gains after several chip makers were upgraded at Banc of America has struggled to offset losses in software, hardware, disk drive and networking... Also showing weakness has been telecom services (-0.6%) despite an informal $6.3 acquisition bid from Verizon Communications (VZ 36.13 +0.07) for MCI Inc. (MCIP 20.56 -0.30)...NYSE Adv/Dec 1410/1701, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1081/1799

11:30AM : Market continues to relinquish early gains as oil prices spike to new session highs... Crude oil futures ($46.95 +$1.49) have surged more than 3.0% after the IEA said demand for oil is increasing faster than expected... While the $40-50/bbl range remains a comfort zone for investors, concerns of surprise pipeline disruptions and premature OPEC production cuts, which could inch the commodity closer and closer to $50/bbl, still linger...NYSE Adv/Dec 1436/1628, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1068/1766

11:00AM : Sellers return from the sidelines to knock the indices back a bit, as the market now trades mixed... Telecom has been in focus this morning due to firming M&A discussions in the space... It has been reported that Verizon Communications (VZ 36.23 +0.17) has launched an informal acquisition offer in cash and stock for MCI Inc. (MCIP 20.59 -0.27), priced near the $6.3 bln tentative bid already proposed by Qwest Communications (Q 4.12 -0.16)...

The ongoing battle for MCI has been the latest development in a rapidly consolidating telecom industry that has so far seen pending mergers totaling roughly $51 bln between SBC Communications (SBC 24.31 -0.07) and AT&T (T 19.53 -0.07) as well as Sprint (FON 23.16 -0.47) and Nextel (NXTL 28.72 -0.11)...NYSE Adv/Dec 1584/1385, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1177/1586

Advances & Declines
NYSE Nasdaq
Advances 1618 (48%) 1346 (43%)
Declines 1574 (46%) 1660 (53%)
Unchanged 174 (5%) 110 (3%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Up Vol* 378 (50%) 464 (40%)
Down Vol* 360 (47%) 675 (58%)
Unch. Vol* 14 (1%) 11 (0%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New Hi's 136 55
New Lo's 17 51


And the buck has leveled off a bit:

Last trade 84.41 Change -0.61 (-0.72%)

Settle 85.02 Settle Time 23:37

Open 84.90 Previous Close 85.02

High 85.44 Low 84.36

Last tick: 2005-02-10 12:33:19 ET
30-min delayed quote.

[54anickel]

42. Oil stocks will keep falling

http://money.cnn.com/2005/02/10/news/economy/iea_supply.reut/

Report from International Energy Agency counters OPEC producers' fears of a potential surplus.
February 10, 2005: 11:17 AM EST

LONDON (Reuters) - Oil stocks in industrialized nations fell sharply in December and should keep dropping in the first quarter, countering OPEC producers' fears of a potential surplus, the International Energy Agency said Thursday.

Lower expectations for Russian supply growth, ongoing problems in other non-OPEC producers and fresh increases in demand have helped maintain a strain on oil supplies that fed last year's 34 percent oil price rise, said the IEA, which advises industrialized nations on energy policy.

Commercial oil stocks in countries in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) dropped 85 million barrels, or 2.7 million barrels per day (bpd) in December to stand at 2.57 billion barrels, the IEA said in its monthly Oil Market Report.

While a total fourth quarter stock draw of 190,000 bpd was less than a five-year average of 950,000 bpd, it left end-December forward demand cover at 51 days -- well below the 56 day level OPEC producers have said they see as excessive.

At OPEC's Jan. 30 meeting ministers said they could consult by telephone on potential production cuts before a mid-March meeting in Isfahan, Iran if they saw signs that stocks were building to levels that would pressure prices.

more...

[54anickel]

44. Afraid I must run for the day again. Real life is starting to crimp my

style. B-) Hope to be back after the close to catch up on what's going on. Have a great day. :hi:

[MARALE]

47. PNC Will Acquire Riggs Bank for $652M

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/050210/riggs_bank_pnc_10.html
...
PNC has agreed to a sale price of $20 per share, far less than the price announced last summer before Riggs ran into regulatory trouble, but well above the $19.32 revised offer unanimously rejected by Riggs last week.

The deal, approved by boards at both companies, is expected to be closed "as soon as possible," said Mark Hendrix, Riggs spokesman.

Riggs had sued PNC for trying to back out of the deal soon after Riggs pleaded guilty to violations of a law to prevent money laundering.

PNC will pay Riggs shareholders 6.4 million common shares and $286 million in cash in exchange for all 31.8 million Riggs common shares outstanding. Riggs stock options, currently valued at $16 million, will be cashed out prior to closing, if not exercised. The deal was worth $652 million at the close of the market Monday, when PNC shares closed at $54.58, the companies said. It has since shrunk to about $644 million at recent prices.
...

[MARALE]

49. Debt Becomes You

http://biz.yahoo.com/fool/050209/1107982440_2.html

...

Experian found that the bigger the debt, the higher the score. Frugal folks with less debt than average are "rewarded" for their restraint with a 24-point handicap, according to the company, which uses a scale of 330 to 830. The penny pinchers have an average overall credit score of 671, compared with 695 for their spendthrift peers and 677 for the nationwide average.

Before you give your credit cards a workout at the Mall of America to "boost your score" (that excuse won't fly with your spouse, anyway), consider the underlying factor that's responsible for the increase: You have to carry more debt.

Mortgage debt gives the largest credit-score boost. Consumers with at least one open mortgage have an average credit score of 716. Those with at least one open car loan, on the other hand, see a smaller spike to just 683.

How much debt are we talking about for a few handfuls of points? The average U.S. mortgage is around $136,000 (10% of consumer home loans exceed $250,000), while the average consumer finances a car for $23,143 for a monthly payment of $383. The difference between the two is that mortgage debt is considered "good debt" -- a home is an asset that goes up in value over time, plus there are some tax benefits to taking a loaner to pay for your pad. Going into hock for a car -- the classic "depreciating asset" in finance-speak -- could be a sign that you're buying more car than you can afford. Plus, the darn thing is almost always worth less than what you paid by the time you hang the fuzzy dice from the rearview mirror.

...

[Blower]

50. AS promised--

www.libertywhistle.us

[98geoduck]

51. That pic is HILARIOUS! Well Done!

[Blower]

52. The two people who did the cartoon are fairly well-known...

Read the article, and the others on the site. I was pretty good with my hand at stock market predicting for the new year!

www.libertywhistle.us

Dan
(The lower signature in the cartoon, and the owner of LibertyWhistle)
p.s. I also designed the logo in the upper right corner, with slogan on my web site! It is a whistle with a bell on its head.

[Blower]

53. 54anickel, does it meet your expectations?

[54anickel]

59. HA! Hi Blower, just got back in the door. I'm short of time again, but

will return later tonight to read the article - I just skimmed it for now. Looks very interesting. :hi:

edit to add - The pic is great! Goldilocks indeed. So many messages there. What's that saying, every picture tells a story, with digital imaging you can tell an entire novel.

[Blower]

63. Thanks!

You can see all of the story in the pic, or vice versa!

[Blower]

55. DELL-how do these companies manage to miss when the dollar was weak?

After the bell, DELL is the latest to miss on revenues!

[54anickel]

61. DELL missed? Oh-oh, that's not a good omen for the Nasdaq! First

Cisco disappoints, they manage to try and shrug that one off by looking forward to DELL, and now they miss. What will the sheep callers point to tomorrow to look forward to?

[Blower]

64. Well if the weak dollar "helped"-- can you imagine if it had not?

I don't get it. The dollar tanked just in time to get these companies to squeak by for this quarter, in the fourth quarter no less, and as the tax incentive runs out (this year).

Imagine what it will be like later this year with a slower economy, higher inflation, everyone having to account for options, and little or no tax incentives for high tech!

[54anickel]

65. I think they are hoping for a little boost from the Jobs Creation Act -

that 30% tax break for companies that repatriate their foreign earnings. Personally, I don't think it will help that much but I do believe that's what they are hoping for. Let's face it, Shrubco is throwing everything they can think of to keep this old barge afloat. I think their bag is running out of tricks though. The last lever to pull is the SS piratization (if they can get it "unstuck") - they are desperate.

[Blower]

68. My take on the "jobs creation act" -- it is BAD for high tech

I've had this discussion with Hulbert.

The Act allows re-patriation of funds, yet importantly, allows the money to be used for mergers and acquisitions! Now, mergers and acquisitions lead to LESS demand to the high tech companies, since merged cos. (Procter/Gillette, etc.) cut jobs and offices!

So merger mania is BAD for the Nasdaq. I don't think any of the effects of the "Job Creation Act" will net create jobs, or net demand for high-tech equipment in 2005. Rather the opposite!

HULBERT seems to agree with me.

[54anickel]

69. Oh, I agree. The act will not have the effect it's name would want you

to believe. What I meant was that they are hoping for it to buoy the markets.

[Blower]

70. I think I would agree that

Part of the reason for the market run since the end of October was the Jobs Creation Act.

So it did buoy the market by ten percent.

[Blower]

71. They will point to HP?!??!

But luck may have RUN OUT. HP usually does a bit worse than DELL. But this time, the CEO of HP disappeared a week before earnings!

AND, HP has a TON of government supply deals. With Bush's cuts.....uhoh!

[MARALE]

56. final report

Dow +85.50 at 10749.61,
Nasdaq +0.55 at 2053.10,
S&P +5.02 at 1197.01


Stocks finished strong, despite mixed breadth figures, on the heels of solid earnings reports and encouraging economic data... While most of the market had Dell's (DELL 41.57 +0.58) widely anticipated earnings report on their minds, investors did not overlook the fact that the majority of notable earnings reports out this morning came in better than expected... Aetna (AET 133.77 +5.22) kicked things off, beating forecasts by $0.04, raising its FY05 EPS outlook and declaring a 2-for-1 stock split... Office Depot (ODP 18.30 +0.78), despite saying it will no longer provide guidance, also beat expectations while Waste Management (WMI 29.78 +0.09), which guided FY05 earnings at the lower end of analysts' current range, also beat estimates... Meanwhile, initial claims unexpectedly declined to 303K versus forecasts of 325K, hitting their lowest level in four years, while the Commerce Dept showed the Dec trade deficit narrowed to -$56.4 bln from Nov's record figure of -$59.3 bln... A 3.6% surge in crude oil futures ($47.10/bbl +$1.64), spurred by the IEA saying demand for oil was increasing faster than expected, limited gains early on, but investors remained comfortable with oil hovering in the $40-50/bbl range... Energy (+2.3%) took full advantage as several leading oil & gas stocks from the likes of XOM, BP, CVX and COP closed near historic highs... Also gaining ground were financial, drug, retail, biotech and materials, which took note of weakness in the greenback and a 1.0% increase in gold futures ($418.70/oz)... Taking some of the attention away from blue chips, however, was technology, which lost ground in every category but semiconductor (+0.6%), which was strong following positive comments from Banc of America and ThinkEquity regarding the analog chip sector... Concerns that the pending $13.5 bln merger between SYMC (-2.5%) and VRTS (-3.0%) may not come to fruition coupled with insider filings at ATVI (-15.0%) kept software (-1.0%) under pressure all day while hardware, disk drive and networking also traded lower... Also showing weakness was telecom services (-0.7%) despite an informal $6.3 acquisition bid from Verizon Communications (VZ 36.09 +0.03) for MCI Inc. (MCIP 20.46 -0.40)... Even interest-rate sensitive areas such as homebuilding and utility eked out modest gains despite a sell off in bonds that lifted yesterday's three-month low yield on the benchmark 10-year note (-22/32) from 3.98% to 4.07%... Treasuries tumbled following a $14 bln auction of 10-year notes that awarded investors 4.049% but only recorded measly indirect bidder participation of 28.5%... Also improving the underlying sentiment today were dividend increases from AET, BDK, CL, MAY and UPS, which took the total number of S&P companies doing such so far in 2005 to 63... ..DJTA -0.1%. ..DJUA +0.4%. ..DOT -0.3%. ..BTK +0.7%. ..S&P Midcap 400 +0.4%. ..Russell 2000 +0.2%. ..NYSE Adv/Dec 1830/1513. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1436/1658.

[JNelson6563]

58. Thanks Marale!

I was just comingin to post final numbers and closing blather. Glad to see you're on top of it.

Cheers-
Julie

[54anickel]

62. How did the DOW get way up there? Everyone headed back to the

blue chips or what? :shrug: