STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday 25 January

[54anickel]

Tuesday January 25, 2005

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 3 YEARS, 360 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 4 YEARS, 45 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 3 YEARS, 99 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1160
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

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U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

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AT THE CLOSING BELL ON January 24, 2005

Dow... 10,368.61 -24.38 (-0.23%)
Nasdaq... 2,008.70 -27.57 (-1.26%)
S&P 500... 1,163.75 -4.12 (-0.35%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.12% -0.02 (-0.43%)
Gold future... 424.60 -2.50 (-0.59%)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie

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PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

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[MARALE]

1. good job starting it!

I was thinking about it, but had no idea where to get a toon.

[54anickel]

4. Thanks, Ozy was having ISP problems this morning.

Sorry it's a little late getting started - sort of slept in again after staying up late again.

So much for that new years resolution of early to bed, early to rise.

[MARALE]

2. Vioxx removal drops Merck's 4Q 21%

That's quite a drop!

http://money.cnn.com/2005/01/25/news/fortune500/merck.reut/index.htm

snip>
The Whitehouse Station, N.J., company earned $1.1 billion, or 50 cents per share, in the quarter, compared with $1.4 billion, or 62 cents, a year earlier. According to First Call, earnings met analysts' expectations.

Merck (Research) said the withdrawal of Vioxx meant the loss of $700 million to $750 million in sales in the quarter. The drug was pulled off the market in late September after it doubled the incidence of heart attack and stroke in a large cancer-prevention trial.
<snip

[MARALE]

3. China sees sweltering 9.5% growth

http://money.cnn.com/2005/01/25/news/international/china_gdp.reut/index.htm

snip>

Gross domestic product for all of 2004 was 9.5 percent higher than a year earlier thanks in part to robust exports and agricultural production, the National Bureau of Statistics said.

That compared with growth of 9.1 percent in 2003 and was the strongest since 1996, when the economy grew 9.6 percent.

"What would economic growth have been like if we had not taken macro-economic control measures last year?" said Li, head of the bureau. "Maybe economic growth would have been much faster. Maybe we would have already seen serious inflation. Maybe we would have faced big ups and downs in the economy."


<snip

[RawMaterials]

5. Going for the gold

The markets have stumbled in 2005, paving the way for defensive strategies. While the streets may not be paved with gold, in the view of George Vasic, strategist & chief economist at UBS, the yellow metal offers better prospects, in a lower growth environment.

Relative to the S&P/TSX composite index, the gold sector's "best performance is when the market is up small, or down," Mr. Vasic told Report On Business Television. From 1970 to 2004, the gold stocks have gained an additional 6.3 per cent annually compared with the S&P/TSX, when the composite has made single digit gains

Mr. Vasic also noted the price of gold has been "tracing an almost perfectly negative correlation to the U.S. dollar,"

snip..

Whither the January effect?

Market watchers usually tout the first month of the year as the big one for inflows of investor cash in the runup to registered retirement savings plan and tax time.

But even Art Hogan concedes the January effect seems to be a washout so far this year.

"It's off significantly from historic levels," said Mr. Hogan, chief market strategist at Jefferies & Co. in Boston.


http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20050124.wtipsheet24/BNStory/Business/

[BamaBecky]

25. Help me understand how this will affect the economy and the price of gold?

thanks.....

http://www.onlinejournal.com/Special_Reports/011405Schwarz/011405schwarz.html

[RawMaterials]

32. Price of gold and the economy

The price of gold will usually go up if the dollar falls(witch many are predicting will continue to happen) gold prices could all so go up with the increase demand from "Asia". The economy is not that healthy right no there are allot of fundamentals that are relay screwed up. if the economy tanks then there will be a run up in gold prices, if it doesn't then they will go back down. the interesting thing to note is how gold has always been really closely tide to the price of a barrel of oil right now gold is ungodly cheep if you keep the same ratios that have historically been in place. so either oil will get cheaper or gold will get more expensive. but whats funny is when gold started to run up in price in DEC some central banks started to sell there gold reserves thus dropping the price, but anyones guess is as good as mine or yours.

[54anickel]

57. Heh-heh! Ain't touchin' that one, but do love this term -

"BMB" (Bush Mythology Bubble)

There's corruption and conspiracy all through the market and Fed histories, and the BFEE plays a big roll in that. Go diggin' too deep and you'll probably end up missing. B-)

[BamaBecky]

62. I'm just reading.......Ha! Recon they will get me for that?

[RawMaterials]

6. Calm before the storm?

ANNANDALE, Va. (MarketWatch) -- Last year was, historically speaking, a yawn-fest.
According to the Jan. 26 issue of Standard & Poor's newsletter, The Outlook, "market volatility was fairly low last year. In 2004, there was only a 14.1% difference between the high and low on the S&P 500 (SPX: news, chart, profile) . That compares to 38.9% in 2003 and an average spread of 33.8% since 1928."
snip...

Does last year's relative calm mean that this year is likely to experience an above-average amount of volatility? Might the volatility that failed to materialize in 2004 be percolating just below the surface, ready to cause the market to boil over in 2005 -- with big moves either up or down?

snip...

Adding more fuel to the fire, S&P predicts, will be the U.S. Treasury Department's recent "clarification of the rules governing repatriation of foreign earnings under the American Jobs Creation Act. Enacted last October, this law taxes repatriated earnings of overseas subsidiaries at a maximum of 5.25% for one year. The rules don't allow the cash to be used for executive compensation or dividends, but acquisitions of U.S. companies generally qualify."

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B0998B5D9%2DF5F3%2D4D0C%2D8962%2D7B32B5C797FE%7D&siteid=mktw&dist=

[spanone]

7. Opening bell up 100? What's that all about?

[spotbird]

8. The budget deficit is higher than expected

and they need another 80b beyond that for the war. Time to celebrate! What I don't get is why the dollar is up on that news.

The market may be up because a couple companies had higher than expected earnings reports.

[MARALE]

12. Dollar gains as bonds drift

http://money.cnn.com/2005/01/25/markets/bondcenter/bonds/index.htm

snip>
Greenback stages rally against yen after China says the yuan won't be revalued in the near term.
January 25, 2005: 9:28 AM EST

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - The dollar made solid gains Tuesday, especially against the yen, after China said it needed more time before adjusting its currency. Bond yields were little changed.

The dollar bought ¥103.64 early Tuesday, up from ¥102.65 late Monday. The euro bought $1.3026, down from $1.3056 late Monday.
<snip

The dollar/euro is following the dollar/yen I think

[54anickel]

9. Heh-heh! U.S. stocks in early advance

http://biz.yahoo.com/cbsm-top/050125/0a384d5a5be94fa8e30b27628c6d922e_1.html

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) - U.S. stocks spiked higher early Tuesday as a blue chips DuPont, Johnson & Johnson and Merck & Co. led a series of bullish profit reports that helped ease concerns about a slowdown in earnings growth.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI - News) surged 85 points, or 0.8 percent, to 10,453 in the opening minutes of trade while the Nasdaq Composite Index (NasdaqSC:^IXIC - News) jumped 22 points, or 1.1 percent, to 2,030 and the S&P 500 (CBOE:^SPX - News) lifted 8 points, or 0.7 percent, to 1,171.

All but two blue chips were moving higher in the early going led by gains in DuPont, Merck, Johnson & Johnson, Intel and American Express.

Only SBC Communications (NYSE:SBC - News) and Verizon Communications (NYSE:VZ - News) were moving lower on the Dow.

Among the latest to report earnings Tuesday were a trio of Dow components.

more...

[54anickel]

10. EU Stability Pact: Let The Germans Mend It, Not End It

http://www.prudentbear.com/internationalperspective.asp

It comes around as regularly as the Super Bowl: Germany violates a provision of the Stability and Growth Pact, the other nations cry foul, and to assuage hard feelings the Germans respond by calling for “reform” in order to forestall the embarrassment of being punished by a creature of their own creation. Eventually, after the New Year’s resolution equivalent of fiscal probity is pledged for the following year (“we’ll be under 3% in next year’s budget, we promise!”), the problem is again swept under the rug until some of the “dirt” begins to reappear months later. In the meantime, real reforms get forestalled and the European Commission retreats to a politically unsustainable and economically illogical status quo that does nothing but undermine the credibility of the European Monetary Union and, by extension, the euro.


The latest installation of this European soap opera came last week. In an article in the Financial Times, German Chancellor Gerhard Schroder wrote that member states ought to be given much more freedom to run deficits above the stability pact's limit of 3 per cent of GDP. "A framework for a stable Europe", (FT, January 17), proposes a more flexible approach to the suffocating restrictions of Europe's stability and growth pact: The chancellor argued that the current pact is an inefficient tool that applies fiscal rigidity without differentiating between cyclical and structural deficits, and circumscribes the abilities of national of one country to cope with faltering economic growth, regional disparity or rising external imbalances, given the inability of euro bloc countries (all of whom now have the same currency) to resort to the traditional expedient of devaluation (as the US is seeking to do today).

There’s only one thing worse than blatantly disregarding this pact, as the Germans and French have repeatedly done almost since inception; that’s adhering to it. So when Europe's finance ministers firmly rejected Mr Schroder’s proposals, they were simply ensuring the continuation of a widely abused agreement which does nothing more than weaken the European Union’s credibility, as well as frustrating the course of needed institutional reform.

One could argue that Mr Schroder’s critique is remarkably self-serving, given that Germany has been one of the most flagrant violators of the Stability Pact. There is also a supreme irony (not to say, schadenfreude) that the pact’s major offender is also its architect: in the planning phase of European Monetary Union, Germany was concerned that its long-term record of low inflation might be put at risk by Italian fiscal profligacy in a currency union. It was Germany, therefore, that drafted and imposed the stability and growth pact on all future eurozone participants.

Of course, it is very easy to talk about controlling national profligacy and exporting Germany’s “stability culture” to the rest of Europe during a period of solid growth, particularly when the author of such demands is the economic powerhouse of the continent (as was the case for Germany throughout much of the post World War II period, especially when the Stability Pact was being designed). Governments can easily retain balanced budgets in good times without unduly cutting spending on popular programs, given higher tax receipts and lower attendant social security costs.

more...

[54anickel]

11. The Weighting Game

http://www.prudentbear.com/archive_comm_article.asp?category=Guest+Commentary&content_idx=39766

One of the measures of supreme confidence in a sector has been an extraordinary weighting relative to the rest of the stock market. Over the past 25 years, there have been 3 such examples of phenomenal weightings that formally recorded big market compulsions that inevitably became unsustainable.


At the end of 2004, the Financial Services Sector accomplished a 23% weighting relative to the S&P 500. This compares with the 7.5% recorded in late 1990 as the Fed had to suddenly bail out Citigroup and Chase as they became insolvent following their aggressive lending in real estate and energy.

Banks are the most recent example and could be vulnerable to the typical post-euphoria loss of esteem so it is worth noting that the two previous examples were followed by a long period of dismay and, eventually, neglect.

The first occurred during the secular bear market that ended in 1982. Within a DJIA decline in deflated terms of 68% from 1969 to 1982, the energy play became compulsive and topped out in January, 1980 along with the frenzy in gold and silver.

Plotted at month-ends, the following chart shows the build in the energy mania from 15% in 1979 to 29% in 1980.

more...

[54anickel]

13. Pre-opening blather

9:15AM : S&P futures vs fair value: +5.4. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +15.0. Cash market still poised for a higher open as futures trade denotes a positive bias... Some notable analyst actions include Merrill Lynch initiating coverage of IACI with a Buy and AMZN with a Neutral while UBS has upgraded RIMM to Buy from Neutral... Smith Barney has upgraded YHOO to Buy from Hold and downgraded TRB to Hold from Buy

9:00AM : S&P futures vs fair value: +5.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +15.0. Expectations for the cash market to open on an upbeat note remain intact as futures indications hold steady above fair value... Ford (F) should be in focus after issuing in line guidance for FY05 but guiding Q1 earnings below forecasts due to lower profits in its finance unit... IBM has said it will acquire Corio for $182 mln in cash while reports suggest General Motors (GM) and Fiat have agreed to allow more time for mediating rift and that Citigroup (C) faces a criminal probe in a bond case

8:30AM : S&P futures vs fair value: +5.6. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +15.0. Still shaping up to be a higher open for the indices as the market continues to sift through a batch of encouraging quarterly results... Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) just came out with earnings, beating Q4 forecasts by $0.03 on solid revenues while other S&P 500 constituents reporting better than expected earnings include ABC, ASH, BNI, COH MER, MHP, SLB and SO

8:00AM : S&P futures vs fair value: +5.3. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +13.5. Futures market suggesting a higher open for the cash market as investors look for bargains amid a flood of earnings reports and ahead of upcoming readings on consumer confidence and existing home sales... DuPont (DD) beat forecasts by $0.04 and guided FY05 in line while both Xerox (XRX) and EMC Corp (EMC) beat estimates by a penny... Merck (MRK) matched estimates, despite lower profits, and issued in line guidance for Q1 and FY05...

Sara Lee (SLE) beat by $0.03 but guided FY05 below forecasts while Schering-Plough (SGP) missed by $0.03 but beat on revenues

6:54AM : FTSE...4825.70...+13.20...+0.3%. DAX...4212.72...+10.83...+0.3%.

6:54AM : S&P futures vs fair value: +4.9. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +14.0.

6:54AM : Nikkei...11276.91...-12.58...-0.1%. Hang Seng...13584.06...+197.07...+1.5%.



And from INO:

The March NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of this month's decline following Monday's test of the 62% retracement level crossing at 1487.10. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and beginning to turn neutral hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. If March extends this year's decline, the 75% retracement level crossing at 1453.38 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 1538.70 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. The March NASDAQ 100 was up 7.00 pts. at 1498 as of 5:44 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to higher opening by the NASDAQ composite index later this morning.

The March S&P 500 index was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of Monday's decline but remains below the 25% retracement level of the August-January rally crossing at 1181.85. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If March extends this year's decline, a test of the 38% retracement level crossing at 1160.65 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 1179.56 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. The March S&P 500 Index was up 3.70 pts. at 1169.90 as of 5:48 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to firmer opening when the day session begins later this morning.

[RawMaterials]

14. U.S. consumer confidence up slightly

The board's consumer confidence index rose to 103.4 in January from an upwardly revised 102.7 in December. Read the full report.

Economists were expecting a slight decline to about 101.5, according to a survey conducted by MarketWatch. See Economic Calendar.

Other consumer attitude surveys, such as the University of Michigan and the ABC/Washington Post indexes, had signaled some deterioration in confidence in January.

snip..

A growing number of consumers said jobs were plentiful, compared with December. In January, 20.7 percent said jobs were plentiful while 24.7 percent said jobs were hard to get, compared with 19.4 percent plentiful and 26.4 percent hard to get in December.

The number of consumers saying the economy is good rose to 26 percent from 24.4 percent, but the number of consumers saying the economy is bad also increased slightly to 18.2 percent.

In a separate report, the National Association of Realtors said sales of existing homes fell in December to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.69 million from 6.92 million in November. For all of 2004, a record 6.675 million homes were sold.



http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B1030FDCE%2DD083%2D4E2B%2D8C7B%2D1AC6DFAFCAD6%7D&siteid=mktw&dist=

[RawMaterials]

15. 10:20 EST Market Update

10:00AM: Major indices continue to climb as virtually every sector attracts buyers in the early going... Airline has recovered more than the 4.5% it lost yesterday while gains in excess of 1.0% have also been seen in semiconductor, networking, disk drive, drug, materials, transportation, brokerage and biotech... Financial, retail, homebuilding and health care have also shown strength while telecom services has been the only major sector trading lower, albeit posting modest losses... NYSE Adv/Dec 1896/588, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1840/615

9:40AM: Market opens sharply higher in the wake of solid earnings reports all around... Better than expected quarterly results from a number of large companies has set a more positive short-term tone for the market, somewhat stifling concerns of decelerated profit growth... Of the 25 S&P constituents reporting earnings this morning, 18 companies beat forecasts, 4 matched consensus estimates and only 3 missed analysts' expectations, prompting buying interest across most areas from the onset...

Separately, Jan Consumer Confidence (consensus 101.3) and Dec Existing Home Sales (consensus 6.8 mln) will be released at 10:00 ET...

9:15AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +5.4. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +15.0. Cash market still poised for a higher open as futures trade denotes a positive bias... Some notable analyst actions include Merrill Lynch initiating coverage of IACI with a Buy and AMZN with a Neutral while UBS has upgraded RIMM to Buy from Neutral...

http://finance.yahoo.com/mo

[RawMaterials]

16. Existing Home Sales down 3.3%

Statistic For/Time Actual Prior
Existing Home Sales Dec/10:00 am 6.69M 6.92M

[54anickel]

17. 10:27 side of numbers

Dow 10,484.84 +116.23 (+1.12%)
Nasdaq 2,034.86 +26.16 (+1.30%)
S&P 500 1,173.29 +9.54 (+0.82%)
10-yr Bond 4.146 +0.24 (+0.58%)
30-yr Bond 4.620 +0.14 (+0.30%)
NYSE Volume 341,178,000
Nasdaq Volume 480,903,000

Advances & Declines
NYSE Nasdaq
Advances 2060 (67%) 1949 (69%)
Declines 826 (27%) 736 (26%)
Unchanged 173 (5%) 132 (4%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Up Vol* 188 (78%) 331 (85%)
Down Vol* 51 (21%) 52 (13%)
Unch. Vol* 2 (0%) 4 (1%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New Hi's 49 22
New Lo's 6 31

[54anickel]

18. Dollar Watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0&v=s

Last trade 83.59 Change +0.35 (+0.42%)

Settle 83.24 Settle Time 23:36

Open 83.42 Previous Close 83.24

High 83.64 Low 83.21


The March Dollar was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates above the 10-day moving average crossing at 83.19. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that a short-term top is in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 82.62 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a larger- degree decline. Multiple closes above the 25% retracement level of the May-December decline crossing at 83.71 are needed to extend the short covering rebound off December's low. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to firmer tone in early-day session trading.

The March Euro was lower overnight as it consolidates above the 38% retracement level of the April-December rally crossing at 129.550. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that a short-term low might be in or near. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 130.875 would signal that a short-term low has likely been posted. If March extends this month's decline, the 50% retracement level of the April-December rally crossing at 127.290 is the next downside target. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to weaker tone in early-day session trading.

The March British Pound was lower overnight as is consolidates above the 38% retracement level of the May-December rally crossing at 1.8564. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish signaling that a short-term low is in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.8763 are needed to confirm that the correction off December's high has come to an end. If March extends this year's decline, the 50% retracement level crossing at 1.8292 is the next downside target. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to weaker tone in early-day session trading.

The March Swiss Franc was slightly higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates above the 38% retracement level of last year's rally crossing at .8421. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning bullish signaling that a short-term low is in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at .8561 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends its decline off December's high, the 50% retracement level of last year's rally crossing at .8276 is the next downside target. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to firmer tone in early-day session trading.

The March Canadian Dollar was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates just below the 25% retracement level of the May- November rally crossing at .8174 and the 20-day moving average crossing at .8203. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. If March extends last week's decline, the reaction low crossing at .8062 then .8018 are the next downside targets. From a broad perspective March needs to close above .8369 or below .8018 to confirm a breakout of this winter's trading range. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to firmer tone in early-day session trading.

The March Japanese Yen was sharply lower overnight and is working on a possible key reversal down. Overnight weakness has led to a breakout below the 20-day moving average crossing at .9727. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends last week's decline, a test of the 25% retracement level of last year's rally crossing at .9629 is the next downside target. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to weaker tone in early-day session trading.

[54anickel]

19. Dollar up vs yen, euro as G7 not seen changing stance

http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/noticies/afx/noticia.asp?pv_noticia=1106661433-9e32d306-28897

NEW YORK (AFX) -- The dollar posted strong gains against the yen in morning trade Tuesday, as expectations faded that the meeting of G7 countries next week will result in Asian countries boosting their currencies' value. The move came on the back of comments reportedly made about the G7 meeting by Treasury Secretary John Snow Monday. The dollar was last trading at 103.64 yen, up 1.0 percent. The euro, meanwhile was down 0.2 percent against the greenback, trading at $1.3020. This story was supplied by MarketWatch. For further information see www.marketwatch.com


And what the heck did Snowjob have to say? Nothing really - he expect no change in the G7. That's about it. "Strong dollar, China must float, strong dollar, EU must grow, strong dollar, strong dollar, strong dollar..."

http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/business/national/10728757.htm

Strong Talk Little Help for Dollar

Associated Press


BERLIN - The U.S. dollar was little changed Tuesday despite strong talk from Washington about addressing the budget deficit and pleas from Europeans for the United States to take action to prop up the currency.

Traders also were cautious ahead of major events coming up, including the Jan. 30 elections in Iraq and a meeting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, as well as the Group of Seven industrialized nations meeting of finance ministers and central bankers.

The dollar was slightly down against the euro at US$1.3059 from US$1.3048 late Monday, and bought 103.18 yen, up from 102.72 yen Monday. The British pound was at US$1.8781, slightly weaker than US$1.8793 late Monday.

snip>

Treasury Secretary John Snow said the Bush administration was committed to getting the federal budget deficit under control as a way to help support the dollar's value. But he also said other action needed to be taken to correct huge global trade imbalances, saying there will be bigger markets for U.S. exports as trading partners grow.

Many traders also are looking ahead to a statement from the G7 leaders after their Feb. 4-5 meeting in London.

Japanese Finance Minister Sadakazu Tanigaki said Tuesday that the position of the G7 was "basically unchanged," echoing remarks by Snow.

more...

[54anickel]

20. Oil Falls From 8-Week High on Outlook for Mild Weather in U.S. (Heh-heh!)

Don't ya just love these oil/weather headlines lately? Nothing like bettin' on the weather now. :eyes:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000086&sid=awiTJNVE5BMQ&refer=latin_america

Jan. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil fell from an eight-week high in London on forecasts that milder weather will return to the U.S. Northeast, curbing heating demand.

Temperatures in the northern U.S. will be above normal in the three months beginning in February, the forecaster WSI Corp. said. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries was urged today by the Kuwaiti oil minister to keep its output quotas unchanged at its Jan. 30 meeting, Agence France-Presse reported.

``The market has the feeling that the worst is over about weather,'' said Rob Laughlin, a director at GNI Ltd., a London futures brokerage. ``Forecasts are for a mild February, and OPEC isn't likely to give us more barrels or take them away.''

snip>

The National Weather Service forecasts above-average temperatures in most of the U.S. Northeast for Jan. 30 through Feb. 3. The region accounts for about 80 percent of the nation's consumption of heating oil.

OPEC, the source of more than a third of the world's oil, meets in Vienna on Jan. 30 to discuss production quotas and prices. The group reduced its output target to 27 million barrels a day as of this month in a meeting in December.

OPEC Quotas

more...

[54anickel]

21. MacroVision 2005 -- The Elastic World (Roach)

http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20050124-mon.html#anchor0

Our annual MacroVision event -- a day of internal deliberations followed by a day of thematic client debate -- painted a very different picture of the world than the one I embrace. There was a strong belief that macro tensions, however serious, can now be defused gently. That was thought to be generally true of markets, economies, and even geopolitical pressures. A year ago, while the MacroVision consensus was nervous about the ominous buildup of global imbalances, the group generally favored a "muddle-through" scenario. With another year of angst having gone largely for naught, there was new conviction in the case for a benign rebalancing. An elastic world can cope with almost anything, the crowd smirked.

This was the fourth year in a row we added a day of client engagement to our much longer-running string of internal discussions (now going on 14 years). I know of no better way to do "group macro." The first day is basically an offsite for Morgan Stanley's worldwide team of some 80 strategists and economists -- a group that focuses not only on countries and regions but also on equities, fixed income, currencies, emerging markets, and credit. Over the years, we have turned our internal deliberations into something of a vetting exercise -- scouring the macro landscape for the key thematic issues that we think will be most important in shaping financial markets in the year ahead. On the second day, we then present these themes to a diverse group of clients, with the admittedly lofty aim of reaching collective closure on the big macro calls. This year, our attendance was double the norm of the past three years -- a standing room only crowd of investors, corporate executives, fund managers, and government officials; about 60% of the group was from the New York area, 25% from elsewhere in the US, and the balance flew in from overseas. It was as lively and spirited a discussion on macro issues as I have seen.

The three topics we selected for debate spanned the gamut:

* Bond Bubble?

* After America

* Demographic Dilemma

In an effort to probe these issues from contrasting perspectives, each of the three topics was examined by two different groups of participants. At the end, a synthesis session brought all the findings together in an effort to identify the common ground of the macro debate, as well as the investment conclusions that could be expected to flow from this assessment. My colleagues Joachim Fels, Andy Xie, and Dick Berner provide details of each of these discussions elsewhere.

In a nutshell, the main conclusions were as follows:

more...

[54anickel]

22. A BIG RISE IN INTEREST RATES COULD COST YOU A BUNDLE (Funny

quote at the end!)

http://www.nypost.com/business/39231.htm

snip>

Astoundingly, the financial markets did not obey the dictates of monetary regulators.

The real world has told Alan Greenspan that he and his Fed colleagues are out of step with reality.

So here's the big question for 2005: Will bond prices finally get hammered because interest rates are rising in accordance with the Fed's wishes?

The value of your home or apartment could very well decline if borrowing costs go up. If rates rise substantially, the housing bubble that everyone else has been worrying about could burst.

The second problem that higher rates could cause would come by way of the stock market.

If interest rates climb, companies will join everyone else in paying more to borrow money.

And if borrowing costs increase, corporate profits will decline. Investors — already in a bad mood — won't like that.

But the big question is: Will interest rates climb?

snip>

But the odds are only that close because of something we Americans should be proud of: even with all those problems, foreigners still think their money is safer here than anywhere else. And they are willing to accept less of a return for that peace of mind. Bwahahahaha-he-hee-hee-te-hee-heh---heh-SNARF!

more friggen one sentence paragraphs...

[54anickel]

23. U.S. Faces More Tensions Abroad as Dollar Slides

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/01/25/business/25dollar.html?oref=login

WASHINGTON, Jan. 24 - After a first term in which terrorism and war dominated President Bush's foreign policy agenda, his allies in Europe and Asia suspect that his next confrontation with the world could take on a very different cast: a potential currency crisis, in which a steep plunge in the value of the dollar touches off economic waves around the world.

Already, the tensions over the dollar are becoming a recurring source of friction, a conflict that does not reverberate as loudly as the differences over Iraq but may be as deeply felt. At a meeting in Paris on Monday, the finance ministers of Germany and France complained that Europe had unjustly borne the brunt of the dollar's decline, and called for coordinated action to stop it.

snip>

In an interview just before President Bush's inauguration, Treasury Secretary John W. Snow played down the tensions. "We understand that deficits matter," he said, insisting that the tight budget Mr. Bush is expected to send to Congress next month should give foreigners and the financial markets the solace they seek.

But should the dollar continue to fall - if, for example, global investors determined that Mr. Bush did not have the will to hold spending down - it would not only add to tensions, analysts said. It might also force up interest rates at home to keep foreigners interested in financing America's need to borrow more than $600 billion a year to cover its gap in the current account. The current account is the broadest measure of the trade and financial flows into and out of the country.

To be sure, the dollar's fall may never reach crisis levels, and in the last few weeks, after a more or less steady fall of almost 35 percent against the euro and 24 percent against the Japanese yen over the last three years, the dollar has stabilized a bit. Many experts argue that a further decline, if relatively modest and gradual, is entirely manageable.

Administration officials, along with a number of like-minded economists, contend that the nation's record trade and current account deficits are not particularly worrisome, a reflection more of strong foreign interest in investing in the American economy than any sign of global weakness. :smoke: HA! There it is again!!!

more...

[54anickel]

24. 11:35 and headed to the moon!

Dow 10,489.64 +121.03 (+1.17%)
Nasdaq 2,034.63 +25.93 (+1.29%)
S&P 500 1,173.18 +9.43 (+0.81%)
10-yr Bond 4.165% +0.043
30-yr Bond 4.646% +0.04
NYSE Volume 603,887,000
Nasdaq Volume 793,169,000

11:00AM: Market holds steady near its highs of the day led by strong earnings from a number of blue chips... On the Dow, 28 of the 30 components have traded higher, led by shares of Johnson & Johnson (JNJ 63.25 +1.76) which have surged 2.9% after it beat analysts' Q4 forecasts by $0.03 based on double-digit sales gains three of J&J's major divisions... While Merck's (MRK 30.89 +1.04) Q4 earnings of $0.50 came in below year ago results of $0.60, due to the withdrawal of Vioxx, results were in line with expectations as was the drug maker's Q1 and FY05 guidance...
Share of DuPont (DD 47.05 +1.04) have also helped lift the Dow after it beat estimates by $0.04, due to strength in its core coatings and pharmaceuticals businesses, and issued in line FY05 guidance...NYSE Adv/Dec 2138/889, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 2028/777

10:30AM: Stocks continue to trade at improved levels despite economic data coming in mixed... January consumer confidence, which was expected to decline given the slight decline in Friday's preliminary Michigan index figure, rose to 103.4 (consensus 101.3) from December's reading of 102.7... Existing home sales for December, however, came in slightly worse than expected at a 6.69 mln annual rate versus economists' forecasts of 6.80 mln and down from the 6.92 mln rate in November... Since both releases were relatively close to expectations, they have done little to move the market in either direction...NYSE Adv/Dec 2062/839, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1944/743

Advances & Declines
NYSE Nasdaq
Advances 2018 (61%) 1969 (65%)
Declines 1073 (32%) 909 (30%)
Unchanged 167 (5%) 140 (4%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Up Vol* 392 (72%) 615 (82%)
Down Vol* 140 (25%) 120 (16%)
Unch. Vol* 8 (1%) 6 (0%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New Hi's 64 31
New Lo's 9 34

[54anickel]

26. Mortgage rates continue mysterious fall

With oil near $50 and growth surging, the pressure is on for higher long-term rates. Yet 15- and 30-year mortgages are getting cheaper, confounding the experts.

http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/Banking/Homefinancing/P95626.asp

The rates on long-term mortgages have fallen for the third week in a row, even as the one-year adjustable was unchanged.

The benchmark 30-year fixed-rate mortgage fell 5 basis points to 5.71%, according to the Bankrate.com national survey of large lenders. A basis point is one-hundredth of 1 percentage point. The mortgages in this week's survey had an average total of 0.32 discount and origination points. One year ago, the mortgage index was 5.67%.

The benchmark 15-year fixed-rate mortgage fell 4 basis points to 5.17%. The benchmark one-year adjustable-rate mortgage remained 4.44%.

Economists expect rates across the board to climb. They're not sure why long-term rates have been going down instead of up.

"It's surprising that with oil back at $50 a barrel, the weak dollar and growth above trend, mortgage rates are around 5.75%," says David Berson, chief economist for the National Association of Home Builders. He offers two theories: Either financial markets are predicting much slower economic growth than the economists are predicting, or financial markets believe the Federal Reserve will continue to keep inflation well under control. HA! Comedians all over the articles today. :evilgrin:

more...

[54anickel]

27. The Greenspan Succession (Krugman)

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/01/25/opinion/25krugman.html

Alan Greenspan is expected to retire next year. The Bush administration, because of its nature, will have a hard time finding a successor.

One Fed chairman famously described his job as being to "take away the punch bowl just when the party gets going." Bond and currency markets want monetary policy in the hands of someone who will say no to politicians. When a country's central banker is suspected of having insufficient spine, the result is higher interest rates and a weaker currency.

Today it's even more crucial than usual that the Fed chairman have the markets' trust. The United States is running record budget and trade deficits, and the foreigners we depend on to cover those deficits are losing faith. According to yesterday's Financial Times, central banks around the world have already started shifting into euros. If Mr. Greenspan is replaced with someone who looks like a partisan hack, capital will rush to the exits, the dollar will plunge, and interest rates will soar.

Yet President Bush, as you may have noticed, only appoints yes-men (or yes-women). This is most obvious on the national security front, but it's equally true with regard to economic policy. The current Treasury secretary has no obvious qualifications other than loyalty. The new head of the National Economic Council apparently got the job because he is a Bush classmate and fund-raiser.

Of course, Mr. Greenspan himself has become a Bush yes-man. The chairman acted as a stern father figure, demanding fiscal rectitude, when Democrats held the White House. But he turned into an indulgent uncle when Mr. Bush took office. First, he urged Congress to cut taxes in order, he said, to prevent an excessively large budget surplus. Then, when surpluses were replaced by huge deficits, he supported a highly irresponsible second round of tax cuts.

more...

[54anickel]

28. 'Confessions of an Economic Hit Man'

http://www.lewrockwell.com/wanniski/wanniski53.html

snip>

1) As surplus dollars accumulated in their reserves and there were no credit-worthy Americans wanting to borrow, the banks had to think of ways to lend the money abroad or it would sit in their vaults earning zip, which means it really is losing money as the paper dollar – freed from its gold anchor – was inflating and losing purchasing power. Citigroup’s Walter Wriston (who died last week) came up with the idea that the surplus should be loaned to poor countries, even though they had no collateral, because governments had to pay off their hard-currency loans or lose their international credit ratings.

2) If the countries that borrowed from Chase or Citicorp could not pay back interest or principle and did not worry about stiffing the private bankers, they would have to swallow the non-performing loans. The solution was to have the IMF, looking for something to justify its existence, step in to collect the debt. All it had to do was persuade the U.S. Congress to ante up billion or two of taxpayer dollars to fill their coffers (and “replenish” them from time to time). They could then go to the deadbeat country and say, “We will give you this money so you can pay Chase and Citicorp what you owe them, but you will have to raise taxes on your own people and devalue your currency as the conditions for the loan!

What we have in this book from Mr. Perkins is an account of a foot soldier in these operations of the Evil Empire. I’ll get his book and check it out, but from what I can gather about it on the Internet he is well within the ballpark of what has been going on. Are bankers evil by nature? Of course not. But as bankers they follow the money, not giving a second thought to the conditions in which they leave their debtors. The first priority of any institution is self-preservation, and for the big banks, that means getting paid back on their loans. Is this any way to run the world? No. It is a dreadful way to operate, and it would end if our government returned to a dollar/gold system and abided by it. If not, I’m afraid nothing Mr. Perkins writes or that I write will change a thing. The folks who control the money control our government and that’s that. It is interesting that Perkins does identify the Bechtel Corporation and Halliburton as agents in this quiet conspiracy to make sure the good old USA flourishes, even though it means the relentless impoverishment of the poorest countries of the world.

Here is an interview that Amy Goodman of "Democracy Now" had with Perkins on November 9 last year. Remember his perspective is not from the highest level, but note he mentions George Shultz as an agent of the Evil Empire, which Shultz has been for decades. It was Shultz who, with Walter Wriston and Milton Friedman, persuaded Nixon to float the dollar and blow up the Bretton Woods monetary system. Shultz, now an octagenarian, is still a power in the Establishment, a key player at the Bechtel Corporation and a member of the Pentagon's Defense Policy Board, a member of the Perle Cabal. Of course, the three men – thought it was the right thing to do at the time, but in retrospect it wasn’t.

more...

[54anickel]

29. Gold Prices Take Biggest Fall in Almost 3 Weeks as Dollar Gains vs Euro

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/markets/commodities.html

Jan. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Gold prices in New York fell the most in almost three weeks as a gain in the value of the dollar eroded the appeal of the precious metal as an alternative to U.S. stocks and bonds.

Gold, sold in dollars, has fallen 3.4 percent this year as the U.S. currency rose against 15 of 16 major world currencies including the euro and the yen. The dollar rose against the yen today on speculation Japan will limit the appreciation of its currency as long as the Chinese government prevents the yuan from strengthening.

``The rally in gold is running out of steam because the dollar is regenerating some strength,'' said Ron Goodis, retail trade director at Equidex Brokerage Group Inc. He expects gold to fall to $420 an ounce this week.

snip>

Li Deshui, head of China's National Bureau of Statistics and a member the central bank's monetary policy committee, said in an interview with Reuters the time isn't right to alter the yuan's decade-old peg to the dollar. The comments led traders to reduce bets Group of Seven finance ministers meeting in London next month will agree to push for stronger Asian currencies.

snip>

Improving the U.S. Economy

The dollar will strengthen against European and Asian currencies as the U.S. economy grows, Goodis said. ``If the dollar is the ultimate winner, then gold is the loser,'' he said.

U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow yesterday said he expects ``good growth and an improving job market'' this year. ``The American economy is in good shape,'' Snow said in an interview.

more...

[54anickel]

30. 12:11 Lunchtime check

Dow 10,484.10 +115.49 (+1.11%)
Nasdaq 2,024.48 +15.78 (+0.79%)
S&P 500 1,171.67 +7.92 (+0.68%)
10-yr Bond 41.92 +0.70 (+1.70%)
30-yr Bond 46.67 +0.61 (+1.32%)
NYSE Volume 732,925,000
Nasdaq Volume 952,210,000

12:00PM : Stocks maintain the bulk of their gains midday following better than expected earnings reports... Strong quarterly results from a number of blue chips have been the catalyst behind this morning' rebound after four straight days of declines have left the market arguably oversold... Seventeen of the 25 S&P constituents reporting this morning, like JNJ, DD, ABC, MER, SLB and XRX to name a few, have beaten expectations while just 3 have missed forecasts... Broad-based buying interest has kept a bullish bias intact since the open and lifted nearly every sector...
Gains of more than 1.0% have been witnessed in semiconductor, software, pharmaceutical, health care and transportation, as airlines (+4.4%) and railroads (+3.2%) have lifted the latter... Materials, boosted by a 5.1% gain in the steel group, has traded higher as have retail, financial and consumer staples while no large industry groups have shown significant losses...

This morning's economic data this morning came in mixed but has had little impact on the stock market, as Jan consumer confidence checked in better than anticipated at 103.4 (consensus 101.3) while Dec existing home sales came in slightly worse than expected at a 6.69 mln annual rate (consensus 6.80 mln)... Treasuries, however, have fallen following the unexpected rise in consumer confidence, leaving the 10-year note off 17 ticks to yield 4.18%...DJTA +2.1, DOT +1.2, SOX +1.7, NYSE Adv/Dec 1906/1213, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1784/1130

11:30AM : Buyers remain in control of the action as market internals hold a firmly bullish bias... Advancers on both the NYSE and Nasdaq have held a more than 2 to 1 advantage over decliners since the market opened while up volumes have outpaced down volumes by a more than 3 to 1 margin... The Composite has found support above the 2032 level while the S&P has held above 1171 and the Dow, which is slightly off its best levels of the session, still holds intraday support above the 10470 level... NYSE Adv/Dec 2032/1029, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1994/869

[54anickel]

31. The War Won't Stop

http://www.lewrockwell.com/reese/reese155.html

What do you think will happen after the elections in Iraq? The answer is nothing, so far as we are concerned. The insurgents will pronounce the elections illegitimate, and the violence will continue. The only difference is that the insurgents will have a new set of targets (the winners) to shoot and bomb.

I'm not suggesting that Iraq would be better off without the elections or that the Iraqi people were better off under Saddam Hussein. Far from it, although he did do a better job of delivering electricity. No, I'm simply forewarning against the American politicians' tendency to paint too rosy a picture. The president will crow like a bantam rooster and claim to have delivered freedom to the Iraqi people. They are a long way from that at the present time. They won't really be free until we leave the country, if then, and there is no assurance that the Bush administration intends to leave Iraq ever

snip>

The question for Americans to ask is, How many American deaths can you tolerate before demanding that we pull out? Is the magic number 2,000 or 3,000 or 5,000 or 10,000? You can be certain that as long as American troops remain in Iraq, somebody will be trying to kill them.

What I hope Americans will soon realize is that whether we leave Iraq next year or five years from now, the results for Iraqis will be the same. We cannot govern their country for them, nor can we force-feed them our values. We cannot defeat an insurgency when our very presence is the cause of that insurgency. We have already done what we had the power to do – topple a dictator. We should start planning for a withdrawal right now.

Alas, my guess is that the Bush administration plans to blackmail/ coerce the new Iraqi government into granting the United States permanent basing rights. If that's true, I hope the new Shiite government in Iraq disappoints Bush and tells us to go home. The top Shiite leader, while he has favored elections that he knows the Shiites will win, has not expressed any fondness or affection for the United States whatsoever. The new Iraqi government will be much closer to Iran than to the United States, and as you know, we are not exactly buddies with the Iranians.

more...

[54anickel]

33. Venezuela Tensions Worry Oil Executives

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/01/25/business/worldbusiness/25oil.html?oref=login

OUSTON, Jan. 24 - Venezuela may be increasing tension in energy markets with decisions that are confounding international oil companies, but the government there says it is merely seeking more income and new markets for its oil.

Peter J. Hill, chief executive of Harvest Natural Resources of Houston, which gets all its oil from Venezuela, has one view of the policies unfolding there. Harvest's stock lost a quarter of its value last week after the Venezuelan national oil company unexpectedly told it to suspend exploration.

ConocoPhillips's plan to develop a new oil field in Venezuela was suspended about two weeks ago, and Rafael Ramírez, the Venezuelan energy minister, said last week that the government would review its 33 operating agreements with oil companies from the 1990's to see if they still made sense for Venezuela.

Those delays come as officials, over the last month, have held talks with government-run oil companies from China, Russia and Iran.

"I'm a businessman and I don't like to get involved in politics," Mr. Hill, whose company has operated in Venezuela for more than a decade, said in an interview. "But there's been a demonstrable change in the way things are done in Venezuela."

The view from Venezuela is different. The government of President Hugo Chávez has said it will negotiate its disputes with Harvest and Conoco to reach agreement on production and spending. But analysts say that at a time of high crude oil prices worldwide and a shift in attention toward China, the Venezuelans are also trying to exert greater control over their resources and expand their range of buyers - as well as get more lucrative deals. :eyes: And there's a problem with that? Isn't that capitalism at it's finest?

more...

[54anickel]

34. Big Japanese banks cut bond exposure

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/2c69533a-6e3e-11d9-a60a-00000e2511c8.html

Japan's leading banks sold a net Y2,170bn in yen bonds in December, the biggest monthly amount in this fiscal year, in a move that signals they are likely to continue to pare down bond exposure in the year ahead.


Most of the bonds sold by Japan's "city banks" - the four leading banks - were government bonds (JGBs), according to the Japan Securities Dealers' Association.

Total net sales in the first nine months of the year that ends on March 31 were just over Y8,000bn.

Analysts said the move signalled a desire to lock in profits.

John Richards, a strategist at Barclays Capital in Tokyo, said: "Their lack of JGB buying reflects a more bearish long-run view on the direction of rates, which in turn is fundamentally based on their belief that the current recovery is sustainable."

The government has been insisting the economy, which almost fell into recession in the six months to September, will pick up, blaming the weakness on a slowdown in the US and a build-up of inventories in the technology sector.

more...

[ozymandius]

35. Hi everyone! post-lunchtime numbers

------------------------------------------------------------------------
12:57 Market Summary
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Dow 10,410.58 +17.59 (+0.17%)
Nasdaq 2,029.16 -5.11 (-0.25%)
S&P 500 1,170.50 +2.63 (+0.23%)
10-Yr Bond 4.142% +0.002
NYSE Volume 615,125,000
Nasdaq Volume 882,550,000
------------------------------------------------------------------------

[54anickel]

38. Huh? Ozy, are you messin' with me here? Those don't look quite

right.

[ozymandius]

47. Sorry, I forgot to hit the 'refresh' key. n/t

[ozymandius]

36. Thank you 54anickel for saving my tuckus again.

I greatly appreciate your willingness to post the thread over the last two harrowing days.

My orientation session started at 8:30 this morning. Given that I take my son to daycare en route to work, I will need to post the thread before 7am. That is: the thread will post without any ISP problems like I had this morning.

I would also like to thank you all for your patience as this transition evolves into a workable regimen.

Ozy :hi:

[54anickel]

39. No problem Ozy. And don't worry, I'm sure you'll have your "system"

running like clock-work in no time. Just glad to hear everyone is healthy enough to return to their new "routines" again. :hi:

[54anickel]

37. U.S. probe threatens IBM sale to Chinese

http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/business/articles/0125ibm25.html

U.S. regulators are raising national-security concerns over IBM Corp.'s pending $1.25 billion sale of its personal-computer business to China's Lenovo Group, people familiar with the matter said.

Members of the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States, including the Justice and Homeland Security departments, worry that Chinese operatives may use an IBM facility in North Carolina to engage in industrial espionage, using stolen technologies for military purposes, said the people, who spoke on the condition of anonymity.

IBM and Beijing-based Lenovo need the approval of the committee, which is led by the Treasury Department and includes 11 other federal agencies, to avoid a formal investigation and the need for clearance by President Bush. IBM and the government are negotiating the matter, which otherwise could scuttle the deal, the people said.

"IBM has filed a required notice with the Committee on Foreign Investments," said Edward Barbini, a spokesman for Armonk, N.Y.-based IBM. "IBM is fully cooperating with all government agencies in their review of this transaction."

more...

[54anickel]

40. 1:24 numbers and yada - still rosy as ever

Dow 10,508.64 +140.03 (+1.35%)
Nasdaq 2,031.79 +23.09 (+1.15%)
S&P 500 1,174.26 +10.51 (+0.90%)
10-yr Bond 4.196% +0.074
30-yr Bond 4.681% +0.075
NYSE Volume 928,963,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,186,379,000

1:00PM: More of the same as the indices trade sideways at sharply higher levels... Treasuries, however, have traded lower, following an unexpected rise in the Conference Board's January consumer sentiment index... The better than anticipated reading of 103.4 (consensus 101.3) has reinforced speculation that yields on the 10-year, which have fallen to their lowest levels in several weeks, reflect excessive pessimism about slowing economic growth...:eyes: Bring back that bullish feeling, wo-oh that bullish feeling. Bring back that bullish feeling cuz it's gone on too long, Greenspin can't hold on wo=oh-oh-ohhhh.

The benchmark 10-year note, which has followed the long bonds lead to the downside much the way they did to the upside yesterday, has fallen 15 ticks to yield 4.18%... NYSE Adv/Dec 1765/1431, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1712/1228

12:30PM: Little change since the last update as the major averages continue to vacillate in roughly the same ranges... Holding onto gains not seen in two weeks has been the steel sector (+3.5%)... A huge Q4 earnings surprise from U.S. Steel (X 53.42 +3.05) has led the charge, pushing the stock above Dec highs... Stronger steel prices and improved margins for its tube and pipe division have also prompted Bear Stearns to upgrade the stock to Outperform from Peer Perform...

Better than expected Q4 earnings from AK Steel (AKS 14.81 +0.90) and an encouraging FY05 outlook have also endorsed widespread buying interest throughout the group...NYSE Adv/Dec 1678/1478, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1645/1276

[54anickel]

41. Paper: Citigroup Said to Manipulate Market

http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/business/AP-Germany-Citigroup-Investigation.html

NEW YORK (AP) -- German regulators say they've found evidence that a large bond trade last year by Citigroup Inc., the world's largest financial institution, resulted in market manipulation, according to a published report.

The regulatory agency, BaFin, has turned the case over to criminal prosecutors in Frankfurt, The Wall Street Journal reported Monday night on its Web site.

BaFin opened an investigation in October of the early August transaction. Citigroup Global Markets sold some 11.8 billion euros ($15.67 billion) in European government bonds on 13 different trading platforms in 11 different markets, causing prices to fall across the board.

The bank then bought back roughly 4 billion euros ($5.31 billion) in bonds at lower prices an hour later.

``There are indications that market manipulation took place in connection with Citigroup's bond trade,'' BaFin spokeswoman Sabine Reimer told the newspaper.

bit more...

Heck BaFin - get over it. That's business as usual here in the good old USofA. No one explained the rules of the game to you before?

[54anickel]

42. Today's WrapUp by Jim Puplava 01.24.2005

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/daily/monday.htm

Unloved, Undervalued and Underowned

If you have ever taken an investment course, read a book about investing, or talked to an investment advisor, you’ve been made aware of the importance of diversification. Diversification means different things to different people. To some it’s having money in stocks, bonds, and cash. To others it’s owning stocks in different sectors. To many it means owning domestic as well as foreign stocks and bonds. Diversification is used as a means of reducing risk. Yet today the application of diversification strategies is seriously flawed. Most advisors simply put their clients in diversified portfolios primarily made up of paper assets.

The basic elements of modern portfolio theory emanate from Professor Harry Markowitz as outlined in his 1959 paper ”Portfolio Selection: Efficient Diversification of Investments.“<1> The central theme of Markowitz’s work is that rational investors should conduct themselves in a manner which reflects their inherent aversion to absorbing increased risk without compensation by an adequate increase in expected return. Risk was defined by Markowitz as the uncertainty, or variability of returns measured by the standard deviation of returns around the mean. Starting with the conception of risk and the assumed aversion to risk, investors should try to minimize deviations from expected portfolio returns by diversifying their security selections. This meant holding either different types of securities and/or securities of different companies. Markowitz pointed out that holding different issues wouldn’t significantly reduce risk if the different securities contained a high degree of positive covariance. What Markowitz meant by that statement is that if the different securities held in the portfolio all moved in the same direction and magnitude or if their price movements were similar, risk would not be reduced.

To reduce risk in a portfolio it would be important to own securities that did not fluctuate in similar fashion. If one component of the portfolio was moving down, you would want to own assets that moved in the opposite direction. In other words, various components of the portfolio should be negatively correlated.

Markowitz’s approach to investing has been criticized from both a theoretical and practical point of view. The greatest criticism relates to the assumption that rational investors are risk averters. In the bubble markets of the 1990s and the bubble markets of today investors have shown remarkable and consistent behavior in ignoring risk. One only has to look at stocks such as Google and Yahoo!, which sport triple digit P/Es. Then there are the IPOs such as last year's Marchex, which had only $23 million in sales and no earnings and yet the stock sports a $500 million market cap. Irrational behavior isn’t confined only to individual investors. Professionals have been buying these stocks in addition to high risk assets such as junk bonds and foreign sovereign bonds with low credit ratings. The result is that credit spreads have narrowed considerably. So today’s high risk investments offer very little in the way of a premium for taking on higher risk.

This criticism of Markowitz doesn’t invalidate the concept of negatively correlated assets as a means of reducing risk. If everything in the portfolio moves in the same direction, then risk is not reduced. To reduce risk, various assets held in a portfolio should be negatively correlated. The investment class that is negatively correlated to stocks and bonds is commodities. In their research paper “Facts and Fantasies About Commodity Futures” professors Gary Gorton of Wharton and K. Geert Rouwenhorst of Yale show conclusively that commodities are negatively correlated with equity and bond returns. The main reason is due to the business cycle. The other is that commodities are positively correlated with inflation, unexpected inflation, and changes in expected inflation.<2>

more...

[54anickel]

43. European Economies: Germany Cuts 2005 Growth Forecast to 1.6% (Ouch)

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000006&sid=a2d8zj.G.tLk&refer=home

Jan. 25 (Bloomberg) -- The German government lowered its forecast for 2005 economic growth for the third time in nine months on expectations the pace of exports will slow.

snip>

Europe's $10 trillion economy, of which Germany accounts for about a third, is lagging behind the U.S. as unemployment at 10.8 percent curbs consumer spending and the euro's 50 percent appreciation against the dollar in three years hurts exports. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said Jan. 4 that the euro region may grow just 1.5 percent in 2005 compared with U.S. growth of 3.4 percent.

The European Commission forecasts German growth of 1.5 percent this year, the slowest of the 12 nations sharing the euro. German retail sales fell the most in six months in November, reflecting consumers' concerns about job prospects. Unemployment last month increased to a seven-year high of 4.48 million.

snip>

Slowing Export Growth

snip>

German companies including Siemens AG are moving jobs abroad to reduce costs. Siemens Chief Executive Officer Heinrich von Pierer said yesterday the company wants to make work cheaper, and urged workers in Germany to adapt to more flexible working hours to compete with regions including Asia and Eastern Europe.

``Sadly growth won't come from Germany,'' von Pierer said. ``It's coming from countries where things are happening. That's India, China and Eastern Europe.''

Infineon Technologies AG, Europe's second-largest semiconductor maker, said today it will close factories in Berlin and Munich, as well as a plant in Longmont, Colorado, affecting about 350 employees. Munich-based Infineon is reorganizing its fiber-optics business, selling some assets to Finisar Corp.

U.S. Deficits

more...

[54anickel]

44. Wien's 10 Surprises Include Higher Oil Prices

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000039&refer=columnist_dorfman&sid=a11HB8IDW3xk

Jan. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Each year I look forward to reading Byron Wien's 10 surprises. Wien, a stock-market strategist at Morgan Stanley & Co., manages to blend economic, political and stock market insights.

Wien deals in probabilities. His 10 surprises are events to which he believes most people would assign less than a 33 percent probability, but which he thinks have a probability of 50 percent or more.

Here are his surprises for 2005, with my comments.

-- No. 1. The price of crude oil, currently near $50 a barrel, will drop to $30, then rise to $60, Wien asserts.

more...

[54anickel]

45. Mexico December Trade Deficit Widens to Record

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000086&sid=azAdn1LT8eBw&refer=latin_america

Jan. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Mexico's trade deficit unexpectedly widened to a record $2.29 billion in December as exports fell faster than imports.

The trade gap grew 26 percent from $1.83 billion in November, the Finance Ministry said in a statement. Exports dropped 7.6 percent and imports fell 4.2 percent, according to the figures, which aren't seasonally adjusted. For the year, the deficit increased to $8.1 billion from $5.6 billion in 2003.

Mexico's trade shortfall probably will jump this year to as high as $13.7 billion as Latin America's largest economy loses market share in the U.S. to China, said Ricardo Amorim, head of Latin American research at WestLB AG in New York. Mexico, which sells about 85 percent of its exports to the U.S., is facing stiffer competition from China for sales of toys, shoes, electronics and other goods.

``Mexico's ability to take advantage of good economic performance in the U.S. is not as high as it was in the past,'' Amorim said.

China

China replaced Mexico as the second-largest exporter to the U.S. behind Canada in 2003 as Chinese sales to the U.S. more than doubled to $152 billion from $71 billion in 1998. In the first 11 months of last year, Chinese exports to the U.S. rose 29 percent to $179 billion compared with a 13 percent increase for Mexico to $143 billion, according to the U.S. Commerce Department.

more...

[RawMaterials]

46. The Shiller interview

Yale economist Robert Shiller worried about stocks in 2000. Now he's worried about real estate.

Q. So far, home buyers have been right in thinking home prices will keep going up.

A. Part of what drives the bubble is this confidence that the market will always go up. When people hear what a house sold for 30 or 40 years ago, they are astonished. But a lot of that is just inflation, not any increase in real value. It is possible that home prices will sag for a long period of time.

snip..

Q. So what should we do?

A. Most people want to live in their homes, so they should stay. But people can make decisions to reduce their home-price exposure. One possibility is to not be as ambitious about the size of your house. If you think that you'll move again in five years, then wait to buy your dream house.

http://money.cnn.com/2005/01/25/real_estate/realestate_shiller2_0502/index.htm

[54anickel]

48. White House Forecasts $427 Bln Budget Deficit, Bush Aide Says

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000006&sid=a3t_C5_kdAhI&refer=home

Jan. 25 (Bloomberg) -- The Bush administration expects a $427 billion federal budget deficit this fiscal year, bigger than the shortfall estimated by the Congressional Budget Office, an administration official told reporters today.

The deficit estimate, to be included in President George W. Bush's Feb. 7 budget request to Congress, was released almost two weeks early to head off pressure to increase spending, another administration aide said. Both officials spoke on condition of anonymity.

Earlier today, the CBO said this year's budget deficit would reach $368 billion after a record shortfall of $412 billion. Over the next 10 years, the deficit will total $855 billion, the nonpartisan CBO said.

The CBO estimate doesn't include spending for the war on Iraq this year. Nor over the long run does it include the costs for Bush's proposal to allow younger workers to invest part of their Social Security taxes in private accounts. Bush's plan may increase the deficit by $1 trillion to $2 trillion over a decade, according to the CBO.

The administration's expected budget deficit would be 3.5 percent of gross domestic product, the aide told today's briefing.

more...

So, I guess he's again tossing the CBO aside, this time because bigger numbers will promote the "crisis" mood. "Must make drastic cuts NOW!" :eyes:

[54anickel]

50. U.S. NATIONAL DEBT CLOCK

The Outstanding Public Debt as of 25 Jan 2005 at 08:05:51 PM GMT is:

The estimated population of the United States is 295,417,186
so each citizen's share of this debt is $25,817.72.

The National Debt has continued to increase an average of
$2.12 billion per day since September 30, 2004!

http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock/

[RawMaterials]

52. $2.12 billion per day since September 30, 2004!

OMG :puke: :puke:

[54anickel]

55. Hard to even get you mind around it, ain't it. Even when you pick it

apart

2.12 billion - that's with 10 zeros, right? 2,120,000,000,000

per day - so after just 10 days you can add another zero?

since Sept 30 - that's what, coming close to 100 days, so we get to add another zero? :crazy: My head hurts.

[54anickel]

49. OPEC Groundswell Grows On Oil Cut

http://xtramsn.co.nz/business/0,,5007-4050161,00.html

Kuwait and Nigeria on Tuesday joined a growing chorus of OPEC oil producers saying crude prices are too high to justify cutting production when the cartel meets this weekend.

Nigeria's top oil official Presidential Adviser on Petroleum, Edmund Daukoru, told Reuters in an interview that OPEC will probably leave output quotas unchanged at its Sunday meeting.

US crude prices held just below US$49 a barrel on Tuesday - within US$7 of record highs hit in late October - after a weekend blizzard in the US Northeast boosted demand for heating oil.

"When you balance things, there is an argument to watch and see until the March meeting," Nigeria's Daukoru said. OPEC is due to hold another ministerial meeting on March 16 in Iran.

Kuwaiti Oil Minister Sheikh Ahmad al-Fahd al-Sabah, also OPEC President, said that the cartel could keep pumping at current levels as prices remain high and stocks are not building too fast.

more...

[54anickel]

51. 3:09 Last hour check in - Lotsa blood on the Treasury floor today

Dow 10,478.34 +109.73 (+1.06%)
Nasdaq 2,025.85 +17.15 (+0.85%)
S&P 500 1,171.14 +7.39 (+0.64%)
10-yr Bond 4.189% +0.067
30-yr Bond 4.676% +0.07
NYSE Volume 1,265,808,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,587,144,000

3:00PM: Not much conviction on the part of sellers today as onward and upward remains the driving mantra... But while the blue chip indices like the Dow and S&P 500 have been able to post strong gains, the Russell 2000 (+0.3%), S&P SmallCap 600 (+0.4%) and the S&P MidCap 400 (+0.3%) have only seen modest buying interest... Aside from the obvious, with most of the buying activity flocking to industry leadership, disappointing earnings guidance from companies like FILE (-9.7%), CTV (-12.8%) and LSCC (-0.9%) has added some pressure to a few smaller names... NYSE Adv/Dec 1765/1517, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1661/1372
2:30PM: Major indices are off their highs but continue to boast noticeable gains as sellers for the most part stand pat... Gold ($422.10/oz -$5.00), however, found some selling interest, falling 1.2% and closing at its lowest level since Jan 10, as the dollar strengthened against both the euro (1.2958) and yen (104.24)... Gains in the greenback have been prompted by better than expected consumer confidence data and reports that China would not in the near future revalue its currency (yuan), which has been pegged to the dollar for ten years...NYSE Adv/Dec 1837/1437, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1730/1274

2:00PM: The market averages continue to hold their own and sport strong gains for the day despite oil prices spiking to new session highs... While crude oil futures ($49.30/bbl +$0.49) have approached their highest levels of the month, better than expected earnings this morning have helped investors overcome continued concerns about the forthcoming Iraqi elections and OPEC's output decision, overshadowing the recent uptick in the commodity...

Advances & Declines
NYSE Nasdaq
Advances 1790 (51%) 1659 (52%)
Declines 1499 (43%) 1381 (43%)
Unchanged 183 (5%) 146 (4%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Up Vol* 697 (58%) 1048 (68%)
Down Vol* 486 (40%) 450 (29%)
Unch. Vol* 16 (1%) 32 (2%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New Hi's 77 36
New Lo's 18 55

[54anickel]

53. Freedom and the Forty Clueless Dingbats

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/rostenko012405.html

The stock market seems not nearly so ebullient as it appeared after the election. Perhaps it's growing a tad concerned with the potential expense of George W's plans to bring "freedom" to every nook and cranny of the globe, whether or not every said nook and cranny is interested. Imposing one nation's will on an entire planet is generally an expensive task as the Roman and British (among others) empires eventually learned. It's especially expensive to ram freedom down everybody's throat with a record budget deficit, but the inaugural address failed to mention that minor factoid.

For whatever reason, the stock market is beginning to waver. The November surge to new multi-year highs in the major indices pushed the S&P 500 to retrace more than half of its bear market decline, thereby churning the bowels of more than one nervous bear. But today the picture looks considerably less promising for the bulls.

snip>

When new major highs fail to draw in buyers, the rally becomes suspect. And sellers grow bolder as last week's high volume decline makes clear. In fact, the four highest volume days of 2005 have all been declines. Nine days down, five days up, nearly 2:1 in favor of the bears. And the market finished at its lowest point for the year last Friday. Not a great start, to be sure.

Is reality finally catching up to the market? Let's get real here, folks. In the midst of the biggest budget deficit in all of U.S. history, George W's inaugural address lays down the mandate for some mighty expensive propositions. Freedom ain't cheap, particularly when it's delivered in the form of high-tech weaponry and U.S. soldiers.

Where's that money going to come from? The printing presses? In that case, say goodbye to the dollar even faster than you had planned. Taxes? That'll work. With Americans saving 0.2% of their income, where will increased tax payments come from? Consumer expenditures, that's where. Say goodbye to corporate profits.

How about from a "coalition of the willing?" Yeah, that'll happen. Even the UK's Tony "someone crept into my sleeping chambers and replaced my spine with a big gooey jellyfish" Blair isn't playing ball on the "let's stop Iranian nukes and if that doesn't sell we'll rehash it as the 'let's bring freedom to Iran'" idea. (It's expected that Blair will support Jack Straw's assessment that military intervention in Iran isn't a good idea.)

more...

[54anickel]

54. 3:27 and finally drifting back down to earth a bit

Dow 10,460.00 +91.39 (+0.88%)
Nasdaq 2,020.17 +11.47 (+0.57%)
S&P 500 1,169.11 +5.36 (+0.46%)
10-yr Bond 4.189% +0.067
30-yr Bond 4.675% +0.069
NYSE Volume 1,344,561,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,690,506,000

[54anickel]

56. and a splash o' blather

3:30PM: Modest profit taking surfaces late in the day, but the indices show resilience and still hold respectable gains heading into the close... As has been the case throughout the month of January, selling into strength during the final hour of trading has added some modest selling pressure, but buyers continue to show their resolve keeping stocks in positive territory... With regards to tomorrow, earnings will again garner most of the attention as there are no notable economic releases out tomorrow...
Quarterly results from 23 S&P constituents are expected before the bell, with large names such as SBC Communications (SBC 24.40 -0.14) and Eli Lilly (LLY 55.05 +0.21) sure to be in focus, while Altria (MO 62.39 +0.23) reports earnings during market hours ahead of 11 more S&P components out with earnings after the close... NYSE Adv/Dec 1801/1495, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1673/1374



Meanwhile, the headline on the Yahoo Finance page still reads, "U.S. stocks rally; Dow holds triple-digit gains" --- Morans!

[DoBotherMe]

58. Closing numbers and blather

Dow 10,461.56 +92.95 (+0.90%)
Nasdaq 2,019.95 +11.25 (+0.56%)
S&P 500 1,168.41 +4.66 (+0.40%)
10-Yr Bond 41.89 +0.67 (+1.63%)
NYSE Volume 1,610,826,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,982,576,000



Close: The market reversed a four-day trouncing, maintaining a positive tone from start to finish following a spate of stronger than expected earnings... Solid quarterly results from blue chips across several industry groups set an underlying bullish bias as buyers found renewed interest in an arguably oversold market... The majority (17 out of 25) of the S&P constituents reporting results today, from the likes of JNJ, DD, ABC, MER, SLB and XRX to name just a few, beat analysts' forecasts, sidelining continued concerns related to slowing profit growth and boosting overall sentiment...
Only 3 blue chips (i.e. BLS, SGP and UIS) missed expectations while five others (i.e. MRK and TLAB) matched consensus estimates... Not even a 1.7% surge in crude oil futures ($49.64/bbl +$0.83), which approached their highest levels of the month due to continued uncertainty surrounding the Iraqi elections and OPEC's output decision on Jan 30 and a potential Nigeria strike, could dampen investors' spirits... Transportation closed higher, led by strength in railroads and airline, with the latter erasing much of the 4.5% it lost during yesterday's drubbing...

Gains were also realized in steel, semiconductor, software, drug, biotech, homebuilding and energy... Telecom services (-1.0%) led the list of laggards while utility, hardware and disk drive were also weak... While an unexpected rise in January consumer confidence to 103.4 (consensus 101.3) did little to move stocks notably in either direction when the data were released, it did provide a floor of buying support that kept the indices in positive territory throughout the session...

The surprise in consumer confidence did, however, invite selling interest in treasuries, reinforcing speculation that low bond yields reflect too much uncertainty about slowing economic growth... The 10-year note fell 16 ticks to yield 4.18%... But the rise in consumer confidence did help strengthen the dollar, against both the euro (1.2958) and the yen (104.24), which climbed after China said it would not alter the yuan's peg to the dollar... Existing home sales for December checked in at a 6.69 mln annual rate, slightly worse than the 6.80 mln economists expected, but was viewed as a nonevent...DJTA +2.2, DJUA -0.8, DOT +0.8, SOX +1.8, XOI +0.3, NYSE Adv/Dec 1659/1672, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1675/1398




U.S. stocks rally; Dow heads for biggest gains of '05 (25 days?)http://biz.yahoo.com/cbsm-top/050125/acc626c7a14a98ef1d0cd5103e034d51_1.html
I would laugh hysterically if I wasn't stunned at the audacity of the statement.

[54anickel]

60. Dang, looks like we've got that "great minds", twins, dupe posting,

jinx thing going on there DanaM.

[54anickel]

61. Biggest gains of 05! Yee-haw, come on momma, we're eatin' out tonight!

Sheesh, but where is it for the year to date? DOWN.
Damned cheerleaders, if you're gonna look at 25 days like it's a stinkin' year, lets hear the rest of the story. :eyes:

[54anickel]

63. Heh-heh! Ain't nuttin' gonna keep us down!!! Love this quote:

Not even a 1.7% surge in crude oil futures ($49.64/bbl +$0.83), which approached their highest levels of the month due to continued uncertainty surrounding the Iraqi elections and OPEC's output decision on Jan 30 and a potential Nigeria strike, could dampen investors' spirits...


Lions and tigers and bears, oh my!


edit cuz I can't type with a sh*t.

[54anickel]

59. U.S. stocks rally; Dow heads for biggest gains of '05

http://biz.yahoo.com/cbsm-top/050125/acc626c7a14a98ef1d0cd5103e034d51_1.html

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) - Blue chips were headed for their best day of 2005 Tuesday as bullish earnings reports from the likes of Merck, DuPont, Johnson & Johnson and Merrill Lynch emboldened investors to do some buying after four days of declines.

"It finally seemed that the market paid attention to some pretty good earning," said John Caldwell, chief investment strategist at McDonald Financial Group. "There's been enough good news out there, it's just the market's been ignoring it the last three weeks."

Heading into the close, the major indexes were well off their session highs, however.

snip>

Advancers gave up their advantage over decliners and were about even on the New York Stock Exchange and while winners held on to a narrow 8 to 7 edge over losers on the Nasdaq. Big Board volume was just over 1.5 billion shares, while nearly 1.9 billion shares traded on the Nasdaq.

snip>

"I am not at all that impressed with today's bounce," said Barry Ritholtz, chief market strategist at Maxim Group. "I suspect this does not mean the end of the downward action.

snip>

" the volume tells me there's not a lot of interest in participating in this market," Ritholtz said.

more...

I was thinking the volumes were a bit low as well, but wasn't sure as I don't pay as much attention to them as I should.