Heads Up East Coast-Weather Channel getting worried

[jmcgowanjm]

Weather Channel is talking about
Hurricane Isabel is a Cat 5
160 mph.

I watch WC all the time.
They were talking about Isabel at 620 Ct
Not usual

Heads up, DU'rs

[goobergunch]

1. Hopefully we'll get out of school for this

:evilgrin: :evilgrin:

[jmcgowanjm]

2. Only 3 Cat 5's hit US in our (short) history n/t

[goobergunch]

3. Correct

Labor Day FL Keys hurricane
Camille
Andrew

[Democrats unite]

8. And I went through one of them in Homestead

Remember Andrew?

[KayLaw]

44. I remember

I'm a native of Homestead and the eye went over our house.

[Chico Man]

64. The eye of hurricane Bob went over my house in SE Mass

Thats a sight to see. Blue sky. Birds trapped in the eye. Peace and quiet. Then the wind changed directions and all hell broke loose again. Not the largest storm in the world but still quite the experience.

I also went through Hurrinance Gloria back in 85.

[Don_G]

4. Best Hurricane Tracking Site

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/tropic.html

I've discovered the Weather Channel has gaps in their coverage depending where you are in the country. They don't have a local, tailored forcast for Indy for example.

[goobergunch]

6. Broken link (n/t)

[Don_G]

7. Works For Me

I don't know what the problem may be.

[DemVet]

40. me too

[Mika]

5. Tracking site

The Hurricane Page
http://www.mjgold.com/

[4dsc]

9. The track of this isn't good

for Florida..

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/storm/storm3.html

[fishnfla]

10. HEX

I HEXIFY THE DAMNED STORM!

[Don_G]

25. I Know

I have a friend in Florida that barely ekes by. I try to help whenever I can, but we share two traits: pride and independence.

[starroute]

11. Weather Channel offering two scenarios

In one of them, a circular system spinning clockwise off the East Coast grabs Isabel and pulls it northward -- maybe hitting the Carolinas, maybe going a bit further east and hitting New York/New England, just possibly going even more to the east and missing the US entirely.

In the other, the circle breaks up and its lefthand edge droops down across the center Florida. If that happens, Isabel would ride that edge across southern Florida and into the Gulf.

Neither scenario looks very happy. On the other hand, they did say that hurricanes almost never stay at Category 5 for more than 20 hours.

[Junkdrawer]

13. Joe Bastardi is betting on a Carolinas track...

and, IMHO, for Long Range(r) forecasting, he's the best in the business.

[goobergunch]

14. Bastardi's good

I used to read his column before it went pay-to-view :-(.

This looks like a Carolina storm to me, based on the current and forecast track.

[Junkdrawer]

16. I found this freebe JB site...

http://pub56.ezboard.com/ftristateweatherfrm8

[morningglory]

34. Thanks! Bastardi is the best for all weather not just hurricanes.

Does he think it will blow itself out, a la the 20 hour scheme? This thing looks horrifying right now.

[nannygoat]

62. Oh, man, after Floyd, NC's rainy day fund

was completely wiped out. So, I sure hope Isabel misses the entire Atlantic coast. I don't think NC could handle another one so soon again...

[alfredo]

82. I hope not, much of your National guard is in Iraq.

A lot of your police, and firemen are there too.

[short bus president]

65. SHUT UP! NOT HITTING NC!!!

I do not need Isabel-spawned tornadoes here. Dammit.

[BeachBuckeye]

24. You must be in Pittsburgh

I remember that name from years ago when I used to do some work in Steeltown.

[Junkdrawer]

26. Yeah, but I hooked up with JB when he did free videos for AccuWeather...

Right now, I'm thinking about starting my 30 day "free trial" :evilgrin:

[goobergunch]

27. The only think I don't like about JB is that he's an O'Reilly fan (n/t)

[Junkdrawer]

28. He's also skeptical of Global Warming...

Never mix weather and politics. :evilgrin:

[morningglory]

35. Lotta testosterone, but we just tolerate it.

nt

[Raven]

12. Thanks for this thread

and to those of you who gave hurricane web sites. I used to love hurricanes until I owned a house and saw the roof cave it under a monster tree!

[Gin]

15. I'm safe here in Virginia Beach....Pat Robertson and the 700 club

will pray it away..

[MrMonk]

18. What is it about Va. Beach?

Isn't the Edgar Cayce institute there, too?

[Gin]

49. Yes...I am a member...we are the "sane" group...haha

gin

[DemNoir]

56. Last time Pat Prayed a Hurricane Away form VA

It us us here in Connecticut, thanks Pat.

[jmcgowanjm]

17. I meant to post links earlier

Here's one:
http://www.nicksspot.com/hurri/

Here's one of images from site

[goobergunch]

19. Here's the official forecast (BIG PICTURE)

[fishnfla]

29. HEX I SAY!!

If you trace out the last 3 black dots on the graph, this little girl hits me right in the smacker, just to the upper left of the "B" in Daytona Beach. Of course after applying this hex, we are safe.

[Junkdrawer]

31. I think it'll be way north of you...

The further north a system gets, the more forces (generally speaking) there are to pull it north and east.

[mithnanthy]

77. I'm in Ft Myers Florida

I do the craziest hex thingy down here when we are threatened. I go out on the lanai and take DEEP BREATHS and start blowing air in large sweeping motions towards the direction I want it to follow. Nuts?...yup...but it's worked for the last 11 years. My friends and family over the years have encouraged me after many successful "blowing jobs"...hehehehehe. Time to get busy and hyperventilate......

[ewagner]

36. I'm absolutely amazed

at how well organized this thing is....it's a classic.

btw...weather channel said they expected it to lose strength as it approaches coastal U. S.

My hurricane experiences...Donna 1960 and was in Biloxi 6 mos after Camille...that... i will never forget!

[mth44sc]

20. Another decent link

http://www.crownweather.com/tropical.html

[Heddi]

21. arrrgh!!! LITERALLY tomorrow we're going on vacation

to Orlando (but leaving on Sunday) then back to the old house in Charleston, SC, and we're gonna be there til Thursday....

ugh ugh ugh ugh!!!

I went through Hurricane Hugo and that was absolutely horrific. I'll never forget everything about it for as long as I live---

-the sound of the wind as the hurricane passed over us. sounded like a freight train.

-neighbors going outside during the eye, shining flashlights to say "we're okay"

-transformers blowing up and exploding during the 2nd half

-the next morning---every tree for hundreds of miles was just slashed half-way down the base, laying over perfectly on top of one another. like a giant hand just swiped them all down like match-sticks

-having to boil your water for 3 months

-being out of school for 2 months b/c the roof blew off the school, and I don't think they ever found the mobile classrooms (read: trailers) that blew away/

-paying $8 a gallon for gas from shyster gas station owners who thought it was cool to price gouge (same also for people who paid $500 for a chain saw, and others who paid $40 for a block of ice)

-standing in lines to get food from food banks because there wasn't any electricity, the grocery stores were all closed. After a while, the grocery stores just let you come in and get stuff. it smelled like old fish and rotten meat for weeks. every time I smell rancid meat or old chicken blood, i think of hurricane hugo

-being able to see the stars for the first time in my life because there were no lights to drown them out.

God...don't let this hurricane hit land. I'm afriad people who were lucky back in 1989 might not be that lucky this time :(

[goobergunch]

22. IIRC, Hugo was a bad 4 (n/t)

[fishnfla]

30. You're OK

She wont make landfall until next FRI. Might muck up your traveling a little on THURS, but dont worry. The weather here in Central FL is great now. Party on.

[Lorien]

58. Yes, cool and sunny

here in Orlando today-and I hope it stays that way!

[Corgigal]

59. Summerville SC

here. Close enough for us to leave. I wouldn't stay in this poor house. She lived through a Hurricane and a Tornado and the earthquakes. I can't ask for more.
I'm going to NC on Sunday (to see BRUCE) to return on Monday. Then we will see if we should unpack the Vue.

Nice to see another DU from close by. In this area you can really feel alone here.

[Junkdrawer]

23. I wonder if they'll have everyone playing "musical chairs" this year...

Cat 4-5 hurricanes usually requires large areas of evacuation...

[Ripley]

32. Please don't let this hit my parents again!

They live near Wilmington, NC and barely survived 3 huge hurricanes in the last 10 years.

[jdotwanton]

33. Oi!

Wood frame house + living in West Palm = unlucky at the moment.

Don't blow away house, don't blow away house, don't blow away house.

[FlaGranny]

45. Hello neighbor.

Don't feel bad. I live in an old mobile home. I have my son's house nearby and my cousin's house near Melbourne (FL) to go to, depending on which way the storm heads.

I wasn't too worried about this storm yesterday morning, but the forecast has changed enough to make me sit up and take notice. We have all the stuff we need in the way of food, water, batteries, etc. Unless the forecast track changes to the west, though, it looks like areas north of WPB are in more danger.

[Onlooker]

50. Good luck

Take care of yourselves. Don't trust your mobile home and don't trust the weather forecasters. Play it safe. Good luck.

[FlaGranny]

67. Thanks.

If that storm heads here and stays this strong, I'm leaving town. :-)

[electricmonk]

37. Just a reminder

For those new to the east coast in general you don't have to be any where near the ocean to have major problems from these storms. People in my area still have nightmares about Hurricanes Camille and Agnes. Hugo also did a lot of wind damage here on the higher ridges. On the plus side Dennis and Floyd kept our reservoir from drying up in 99.

Link to an interesting video about Camille, you'll have to copy and paste it since it's not a http link.

rtsp://mgs.tbo.com/tbo/video/weather/2002/aug/inland.rm

Or go to this page and click the third video under features.

[Cha]

38. Thanks! I'm here in New York(middle and way inland) ...

so we'll see what happens. I went through Hurricane Iniki back on
Sept 11, 1992 on Kauai and it was Killer. A .5 and $$$$$billions of bucks in damage and took over 5 years to rebuild!

Terrible stuff!

[KoKo]

83. Zidzi, How would you like some company? Do you take pets?

Having been through Hurricane Fran and major Ice and Snow storms with no power in the last 5 years here in NC......I vowed I would leave the next time something came. My hubbie has relatives in NY....Rochester, Ithaca....we might head that far North......

LOL's about moving in with you.......Hopefully you are very safe there...

[LizW]

39. Dangerous stuff

We lost several huge trees in Opal in '95, and it was only a category 3 and we're 250 miles from the coast. It came right across us during the night and it was terrifying. I sat up all night watching the flashes from blowing transformers all over the valley.

[Romberry]

41. Quick! Someone call...

...Pat Robertson. Tell him it's time to steer another 'cane. ;)

[scottxyz]

42. I use wunderground.com

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200313_5day.html

[leftchick]

47. thanks scott....I think

Looking at the 5 day forcast, it sure looks like it is headed towards me in NC! Been there, done that in 1996.... :scared:

[Palacsinta]

43. Anyone remember Agnes?

In the early '70's. It rained for 40 days and 40 nights......seemed like it anyway........terrible flooding and destruction
for the areas around the Susquehanna River.

[leftchick]

46. I lived through Agnes in 1972 in Elmira.NY

the Chemung river flooded the whole city and it was never the same. Corning on the other hand rebounded nicely. It was actually tropical storm Agnes that did the deed but we always refer to it as "The Flood".
I also lived through hurricane Fran in 1996, Raleigh,NC. That was horrible!!

[xxqqqzme]

51. I was in that area

right after 'The Flood'. It was the first time I had seen the destruction caused by water. I will never forget the front yards w/ mountains of muddy carpets and soggy sofas lying on their backs. That fine, slippery, silty mud all over everything people owned.

[leftchick]

52. the smell...

I will never forget the smell ....

[Art_from_Ark]

48. Meanwhile, on the other side of the world, Typhoon No. 14,

also known as Maemi, has just passed through the island of Miyako-jima in Okinawa, causing damage to nearly every one of the 22,000 homes on the island. The Japan Times says it is probably the worst storm to hit Okinawa in 30 years.

http://www.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/getarticle.pl5?nn20030912a4.htm

[hatrack]

53. 11AM AST Update - Still Moving West, Pressure Up (Barely) To 924

Now about 370 NE of the Leeward Islands, maximum sustained winds around 160 mph. Eyewall flights are scheduled for this afternoon.

National Hurricane Center

[Stuckinthebush]

54. Correct me if I'm wrong...

but it looks like they are predicting much weakening of this thing over the next few days. By the time it hits the mainland, it should be around a 2 instead of a 5.

I was looking at the Hurricane Center's wind predictions and they have it tailing off over time.

[fishnfla]

55. You may be right

I guess a cat 5 can only stay that way for awhile. This baby may have peaked to soon. (just like the Dean candidacy... JUST KIDDING Deanie-boppers, just kidding)

[Junkdrawer]

57. Could weaken but grow bigger after 72 hrs - May be a Mid-Atlantic Storm...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/121432.shtml?

ISABEL IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN A WARM-WATER LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
FOR ROUGHLY THE NEXT 72 HR. DURING THAT TIME...THE INTENSITY
SHOULD BE CONTROLLED MAINLY BY HARD-TO-FORECAST EYEWALL REPLACEMENT
CYCLES. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL THUS CALL FOR A SLOW WEAKENING
THROUGH THAT TIME BASED ON CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS
AND CLIMATOLOGY. AFTER 72 HR...THE GFS AND NOGAPS SUGGEST THAT
ISABEL MAY MOVE NORTH OF A 200 MB ANTICYCLONE AND GET EXPOSED TO
SOME SHEAR. THE SHIPS MODEL RESPONDS TO THIS BY FORECASTING 30 KT
OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR BY 120 HR. BASED ON THIS...THE INTENSITY
FORECAST WILL CALL FOR A SOMEWHAT FASTER WEAKENING. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS ALL FORECAST ISABEL TO GROW IN
SIZE BEYOND 72 HR...WHICH MAY BE REFLECTED IN LATER WIND RADII
FORECASTS.


The Mid-Atlantic thing comes from Joe Bastardi's Pro Site. Of the 3 big long-term models, 2 make it a VA/NJ storm, 1 makes it a SC storm.

[hatrack]

61. Floyd, as I recall, was the size of Texas went it went into North Carolina

Raging winds weren't necessary for the devastation it did. All it took was feet and feet of rain.

[electricmonk]

63. Cool photo of Floyd and Andrew

Lots more great weather event photos here

[depakid]

74. If Isabel hits NC, expect A LOT of hogwash

With the kind of sustained rainfall this baby going to generate, all those under regulated hog factories will just be gushing torrents of effluent all over Eastern Carolina, probably even worse than they did during Floyd. I heard from relatives there that the stench along 1-40 was unbearable in places, the groundwater was contaminated for months and people who didn't have flood insurance were litterally up shit's creek .... without a paddle.

A small hog lagoon

However, it gets worse.

Once all of that putrid waste filters its way into the estuaries, it provides a rich food sources for a small dinoflagellate living there, called Pfiesteria piscicida. Normally rather benign, the Pfiesteria then blooms in immense numbers and mutates into several deadly forms, spewing toxins that cause mass fish and shellfish kills. Moreover, humans unfortunate enough to come into contact with Pfiesteria infected water may experience bizarre neurological conditions: acute short term memory loss, confusion, headaches and severe cognitive impairment (e.g. cannot read or write), patients may also present skin lesions, and liver impairment and kidney dysfunction.

The Environmental Defense Fund has an excellent site available with an interactive map that examines the impacts of factory hog farming on North Carolina Estuaries. The only problem is that when you try to go deeper into the assessments for a particular area, The EPA has pulled out censored all of their informational pages.

Doubtlessly they posed too great a risk for Homeland security.

[slackmaster]

60. You're right, and a 2 still sucks ass

The path reminds me of several years ago when two hurricanes hit near the borders of the Carolinas.

[kayell]

66. Yep, we're a bit worried here in the Carolinas

Memories of Hugo are STILL too fresh. I was living in Richmond, VA at the time and the devastation that Hugo managed to do along the Appalachians, even hundreds of miles after it made landfall was amazing. Even more appalling was the level of damage near Charleston, SC where it came ashore. I didn't see that until almost a year later, and it was still a shocking mess. Hoping Isabel swings north and clear of the coast.

I just posted some links on Hurricane Info on our work website, for Carolinians who may need some resources, here's what I grabbed together quickly.

http://hgic.clemson.edu/HURRICANEINFO.HTM

[Corgigal]

68. Yep its lovely

I missed Hugo but moved here a few years after. Most of the neighbors who were here when Hugo hit will be freaking out shortly.
PTSD of a huge population. Everyone now says they will leave if anything like that is headed their way again.

SO, I went online and got the most current copy of my homeowners policy and will decide around Tuesday if we need to head out.
I heard too many stories here to trust the locals to either fix the electicity or the water supply in a short time frame.

I keep reading on how she's going to lose strength but I havent seen any facts on this happening yet. If it comes over Charleston a Cat 5..forget about it. Would be a shame because it's so beautiful in downtown Charleston.

[qanda]

69. Kick

All you weather watchers out there, please keep us updated.

On Edit: spelling

[hatrack]

70. 5PM AST Friday Update - Hurricane Hunters Confirm Cat. 5 Status

Max. sustained still at 160, central pressure down to 920, about 350 miles NE of Leeward Islands, still tracking west.

National Hurricane Center

[goobergunch]

71. Image and Forecast (BIG PICS)...looks like it's going to hit Wilmington NC

[qanda]

73. What are the possibilities that this may break up some

Before making landfall? From reading the chart above, it sounds like the winds will die down considerably in the next 72-120 hours.

[theHandpuppet]

81. Even a weakened Isabel...

... could be devastating to the fragile ecosystems of NC's barrier islands. I shudder to think of it!

[DemVet]

79. Source for Images?

Would like to go to this website please. Thank you.

[goobergunch]

90. Here you go

http://152.80.49.216/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

One of the best tropical pages on the Net IMHO.

[nannygoat]

72. For those of us who may be in Isabel's path, here's a good resource

Disaster Kit Info
http://www.ces.ncsu.edu/disaster/factsheets/html/96.html

Be prepared!

[kayell]

76. Good info, more here, including evacuation routes for South Carolinians

(hope it doesn't come to that)

http://hgic.clemson.edu/HURRICANEINFO.HTM

Links to
Extension Disaster Education Network (EDEN)
National Hurricane Center
Latest Tropical Storm Advisories
Tropical Storm Watch
Clemson University Emergency Preparedness
Clemson Extension Disaster Recovery Leaflets - Links to lists of online publications for victims of drought, hurricane damage or other natural disasters.
SCDOT Coastal Evacuation Directions, Route Maps and Reversal Plans
South Carolina Emergency Management Division Includes the 2003 Hurricane Guide in English and Spanish
Federal Emergency Management Agency - FEMA
Tree Storm Recovery - National Arbor Day Foundation
ISA Certified Arborist List - search by zip code etc.

and Food Safety Fact Sheets
Food Safety In Power Outages
Food Safety In Freezer Failures
Food Safety in Hurricanes and Floods

[fishnfla]

78. The list is incomplete

1.you need insect repellant, your windows may be blown out

2. gas or charcoal for your grill, you can cook that way

3. gas for your car, very important

4. I'm sorry but you need a gun. Not for looters, but for displaced snakes, rats and other bad critters

[Lorien]

87. I'm sorry, but a GUN??

Please! I live in Florida, and my garage is full of snakes, rats, raccoons, bats, and opossums-they have never caused me a bit of trouble! All are more afraid of us than we are of them. Just keep a broom and a pair of fireplace gaunlets on hand; I use them for safely removeing snakes and baby coons from places thet shouldn't be (a snake and bugbite kit is also helpful-the worst critters I have are brown recluses and black widows. A gun for them would be the very definition of overkill)!

[fishnfla]

99. Well I live near a river bottom

Our snakes are diamondbacks( I saw one last year, head as big as a softball, 6 feet if an inch), moccassins and coral. My point is a cat 5 is going to blow out your windows and doors, if that happens them critters could come right on in. we have them critters in our garage too, they aint welcome in the kids rooms.

on edit:
AAAACK talking on snakes in post #666, bad karma!!!

Edited again: 2 weeks ago an 8 foot gator took a neighbors dog with his 9 year old daughter standing 6 feet away. I aint going after him with no broomstick when the creeks are a risen.

[Lorien]

102. I'm not going to turn this into

a debate on gun ownership, but suffice to say that if you own one, you are 46% more likely to be injured or killed by a gun than a non-gun owner is.

As for alligators; stun guns work on them as they do on 250lb men (and newer models work from more than 20 feet away), and stun guns won't kill you, your kids, or cause damage to your property. Just something to think about.

[SideshowScott]

75. Virginia Beach here it looks like it may hit us dead on

But thats they way it looks all the time..We had some bad storms but none as bad as the 1963 ash wendsday storm that my mom STILL talks about..Gloria was pratty bad though..I dont mind a mild hurricane but a strong one like this is rather scary

[ozone_man]

100. The one I remember, when I was a kid was Donna.

My mother took me to the shore to watch it (NY).

Hurricane Donna
Aug. 29-Sept. 14, 1960

Max. winds: 160 mph Min. pressure: 932 mb Category: 5

Powerful Hurricane Donna roared into the northeast Caribbean at peak intensity late on Sept. 4. It then rampaged across Puerto Rico and the Bahamas before swiping southern Florida on Sept. 10 with 135 mph sustained winds and peak gusts to 175 mph in the Florida Everglades. Donna then turned tail and, crossing the Florida Peninsula, raced northward along the East Coast, lashing every state from South Carolina to New York with hurricane-force winds before slamming into New England on Sept. 12 with winds gusts up to 130 mph at Block Island, R.I. Hurricane Donna crossed Long Island with a 100-mile-wide eye. In New Haven, Conn., a barometer measured a minimum surface pressure of 966.8 millibars, or 28.55 inches. Only three people perished in New England.

[inthecorneroverhere]

80. Those are some beautiful pictures!

Thanks for those pictures! They are beautiful and awesome!

I seriously recommend for everyone that is within 150 miles of the East Coast (and maybe even the Gulf Coast) to go out and hit the store this weekend, rather than waiting until next week. Once the word gets out that, yes, it's going to hit, the stores really start running out of stuff.

You can keep non-perishables like crackers/cereal in sealed boxes and batteries/flashlights etc. in the car trunk for a couple of days in case of an evacuation call.

Just buy things that you use anyway. If the store has a 2 for 1 sale, or a significant discount on something, stock up on that. That way, if ol Isabel turns out to sea, you will just have a few weeks worth of extra on hand.

I live in the Carolinas, but waaaaay inland (elevation in my 'corner' is more than 800 feet, so I'm not even in the Piedmont but more like the mountains sort of). I went to the store today and bought enough food to 'hang out' for a week, not going anywhere in case it rips through with flooding rains and the like.

[kayell]

84. Bump

The storm track prediction graphics on this page keep automatically updating. Great resource of info for all us east coasters.

[Junkdrawer]

85. Joe Bastardi: Isabel will get to East Coast

"Isabel. The European is in and looks like last night, it has a landfall from the south southeast on the Delmarva Peninsula next Friday of a huge hurricane. In addition to the obvious threat of wind with Isabel wherever she winds up, flooding will be a major concern. The storm will have 4 days of east wind being pumped in and the whole set up is something that has been mentioned several times in this column from back in late July, the worry about a major hurricane coming into areas that have had alot of rain.
While the pattern is impressive and I guess the last 2 posts have me staking an idea that a landfall is coming somewhere from the Carolinas north ( included, if the European is right, is the almost unheard of short cut storm hitting somewhere north of Hatteras and south of New York City from the southeast0, there is a way out. The crucial assumption here is that the upper ridge in the north is as strong or stronger than the subtropical ridge following Isabel. The reasons are based on a) the overall pattern b) the warm western atlantic water, and c) the action following Isabel. The UKMET has the gall to actually conjure up td 14 out of the upper low that has destroyed it and start it west. The point is that there is weak ridge south and east of isabel, so the strongest part of the ridge is in the north and that is what keeps the storm moving west of north all the way to 40 north. Arguing for the unusual is the recent path of Henri, which came in well to the west. But there is a way out, though looking at everything it seems more likely that it is not at all out of line to say that it is more likely than not that this hits the United States. Even if it were to miss landfall in eastern NC or the mid atlantic, new England juts out to 70 west, and it would be very hard, with a strong trof digging into the nations midsection and the natural baroclinic processes to ask this storm to fade east, but instead it is more likely to try to wrap up west. Both Hazel and Hugo pulled the same thing, moved somewhat west of north to near 40 north, only their paths were a bit further west. Super impose their paths to as storm 3-5 degree further east and you may come up with the end game for Isabel.

Isabel is going to spread out and become a big storm with hurricane force winds extending out 150 miles over water and 50 miles overland by the time it is up to near 35 north. The 33 hurricane hit at Norfolk, but hurricane gusts were as far north as Long island. "

http://pub56.ezboard.com/ftristateweatherfrm8

[qanda]

86. I have a bad feeling about this storm.

We don't live far from Annapolis and we have had so much rain this year, I don't think we can take much more. I keep hearing this may hit the mid-atlantic and if it does we are in big trouble!

[Corgigal]

88. Weather Channel

reporting at 2:50 pm EST.

Isabel again at Cat 5. Still moving west but they still believe she will shift west/northwest.

Damn.

[VolcanoJen]

89. Isabel Unlikely to Strike Florida (Miami Herald story 9-13-03)

Good news for our Sunshine Staters!!!

http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/6763499.htm

The outlook for Florida brightened considerably this morning as Hurricane Isabel showed initial signs of veering away from the peninsula. Experts said it was too early to sound the all-clear, but the computerized forecast models were offering comfort.

''There are no dynamical models suggesting that Isabel might ever reach Florida,'' said forecaster Lixion Avila of the National Hurricane Center in West Miami-Dade County.

The storm-related future of other areas was more cloudy.

Forecasters said points farther north along the East Coast still could endure a strike by Isabel, though it was also possible that the hurricane would curve out to sea next week without touching the mainland.

[goobergunch]

91. UPDATE (2:10 PM EDT 9/13)...it's a Cat 5 again

000
WTNT61 KNHC 131807
TCUAT 
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ISABEL TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
210 PM EDT SAT SEP 6 2003
 
RECENT REPORTS FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT INDICATE FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 158 KT AND 157 KT...
RESPECTIVELY. ALSO...DROPSONDE WIND REPORTS INDICATE WINDS OF 167
KT...OR 192 MPH...JUST A FEW HUNDRED FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE. BASED
ON THIS INFORMATION...THE INTENSITY OF HURRICANE ISABEL IS BEING
INCREASED TO 140 KT...OR 160 MPH...AS OF 2 PM EDT...1800Z. THIS
MAKES ISABEL A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE AGAIN.

FORECASTER STEWART

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCUAT+shtml/131807.shtml?

[qanda]

92. kick

For updates.

[Junkdrawer]

93. A Washington DC Hurricane????

I'm looking at the global models, and they seem to be pretty consistant about this.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT13/refresh/AL1303W5+GIF/132218W5.gif


Stay tuned...

[SoCalDem]

94. 5PM EST update..

[Junkdrawer]

96. Check it now...

:kick:

[Chico Man]

97. I have a bad feeling about this for Rhode Island

If this thing remains a cat 5, or even weakens to a 4 or a 3, and they continue revising the course for a more northerly track, it looks like RI is going to be walloped big time.

[SoCalDem]

98. Interactive evacuation maps and more here

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=334875

[ElsewheresDaughter]

95. imagine this sucker changing course and heads towards Gitmo!

those poor bastads wouldn't stand a snowball chance ...

[VolcanoJen]

101. MESSAGE FROM THE MODERATOR

Hey LBN readers,

This Hurricane Isabel situation is getting very, very serious, and since this thread was started on Thursday, and due to the ever-changing conditions of hurricanes, maybe we should start a new thread with the updated information. We could do this daily if we wish.

What does everyone involved in this thread think would be the best way to handle the situation? This thread is already past 100 posts and it's getting difficult to sift through it for the latest information on this very serious storm.

Anxiously awaiting your thoughts,
VolcanoJen
DU Moderator

[hatrack]

103. 11 AM Sun. Update - And VolcanoJen, I agree - maybe daily threads?

Pressure up to about 939, but max sustained winds still holding at 155 MPH. Tracking forecasts show strike on North Carolina and into Chesapeake Bay by around Thursday, but still substantial uncertainty around course.

Jen, would daily hurricane threads do the job? I think there's going to be a lot of traffic on this topic by tomorrow.

National Hurricane Center

[Chico Man]

104. I agree

I'd say use the daily stock market thread as a model

[VolcanoJen]

106. I'm going to lock this thread and start a new one...

... which links back to this thread so interested readers can follow the progress of the story and storm.

Hopefully, the hurricane watchers among us could start this thread up again daily, as conditions warrant. It would be good if anyone starting the new thread could provide a link back to this thread as well.

Thanks!
VolcanoJen
DU Moderator

[qanda]

105. I agree with you

It is pretty hard to find the updated info and trust me I am VERY interested in finding any info I can, as it looks like it will visit my area. A daily thread would probably be best with any new *warnings* meriting their own LBN thread.

[VolcanoJen]

107. New Isabel LBN Thread Here:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=102&topic_id=113796

Thanks, everyone, for your input on how best to handle this developing story!

VolcanoJen
DU Moderator