STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday 17 December

[ozymandius]

Friday December 17, 2004

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 4 YEARS, 34 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 4 YEARS, 6 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 3 YEARS, 60 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1121
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

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U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

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AT THE CLOSING BELL ON December 16, 2004

Dow... 10,705.64 +14.19 (+0.13%)
Nasdaq... 2,146.15 -16.40 (-0.76%)
S&P 500... 1,203.21 -2.51 (-0.21%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.18% +0.11 (+2.65%)
Gold future... 438.20 -4.00 (-0.91%)





GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie

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PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

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[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Martin Goldberg "They’re At It Again!"

A Morning star for Bonds, Heavy Volume With Little Upside Progress for Nasdaq
They’re At It Again!

Deals were the name of the game today. Deals and positive economic data from the government moved the bond market to the downside while all the deal news didn’t do much for stocks. In the precious metals front, Glamis Gold (GLD) put out a bid for Gold Corp. This moved Gold Corp. up over 7% and Glamis down by over 7%. In a similar manner, the proposition that Symantec (SYMC) would buy Veritas (VRTS) became a reality today. Both of these stocks were down – Symantec down by over 7%. With all of the deal-doing going on, I think it would be meaningful to keep mental or actual notes on those companies that are doing deals in spite of what Wall Street thinks about them. This may show a level of corporate governance that suggests that management will do whatever is for the long-term benefit of shareholders, while suffering the long term pain of a one-day big loss in paper stock price. When a bear market comes (is this even possible?!), such companies are worth a look based on valuations when the time is right. Consider that in 2000, AOL shareholders became owners of a real and thriving business, whereas if AOL had stood pat, they would have become a single-digit stock. Or would they have?

I actually got a note from a successful trader suggesting CMGI as a potential buy, and as shown below the chart is rather bullish. They’re back!

-cut-

Today’s Market

Stock indices were little changed, and the only thing different about today versus the last few trading days was the breadth of today’s market, which was a bit negative. The Nasdaq has traded on extremely heavy volume for the last 11 trading days, and yet has not produced any significant upside. We’re very near a 52-week high with a lot of fuel (volume) being expended with practically no upside.

-cut-

There are two points I would like to make about the 10-year note:

The head-and-shoulders that failed does not mean a sustained uptrend will follow. It mostly suggest(ed), a “tradable rally”. Edwards and Magee (no time to give chapter and verse), indicate that the head-and-shoulders, even if it fails, tend to indicate impending peril.

The most recent (3 days) as indicated in the 7-10 year bond exchange traded fund produced an evening star pattern. Although we could get a bounce, the odds favor a short-term downtrend with 86-and-a-few pennies top to hold in the short run.

Looking at the longer-term pattern expressed in interest rates, it seems easy to believe what the fundamental bond bears are saying about interest rates – they are going up!

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[UpInArms]

2. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 82.28 Change -0.22 (-0.27%)

http://futures.fxstreet.com/Futures/news/afx/singleNew.asp?menu=economicnews&pv_noticia=MTFH29593_2004-12-17_12-58-09_L17284281

FOREX-Dollar slips as German Ifo data spurs euro

excerpt:

The dollar had a volatile session on Thursday. It came within half a cent of last week's record low against the euro before rebounding on the back of upbeat U.S. economic data.

A smaller than expected U.S. current account deficit for the third quarter, a strong survey of mid-Atlantic manufacturing and a steep drop in U.S. jobless claims encouraged traders to snap up the currency at cheap levels.

The U.S. current account deficit widened to $164.71 billion in the third quarter, a record but below forecasts for $166 billion.

The dollar was also helped by pledges from U.S. President George W. Bush to cut the fiscal deficit. But traders are sceptical given the Bush administration's goal to make tax cuts permanent.

Bush cited the Federal Reserve's interest rate rises as part of U.S. action on the dollar, though so far the rise in U.S. rates over European and Japanese counterparts has offered little solace to the U.S. currency.

The trade shortfall still runs at a historically large 5.6 percent of the total U.S. economy, and most analysts believe that worries about the United States' ability to finance it are likely to keep the dollar under selling pressure.

But with year-end holidays approaching and little significant economic data on the near-term horizon, the market is starting to settle into a lull until the new year.

After a two-day meeting, the Bank of Japan kept unchanged its ultra-easy monetary policy but downgraded its view of production, citing inventory adjustments in the information technology sector. But the central bank said it expected Japan's recovery to continue.

...more at link...

Have a Great Day Marketeers!

[UpInArms]

7. Dollar vacillates after U.S. CPI data

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BE8ED4FD4%2D3298%2D4B4A%2DBFE7%2DEEEFEA40CCF7%7D&siteid=mktw

CHICAGO (CBS.MW) - The dollar rose in the immediate wake of a U.S. report that showed an as-expected rise in U.S. consumer prices, renewing expectations that U.S. interest rates are headed higher.

But the dollar's morning gains invited a new round of selling, as investors mostly square up positions as the year draws to a close.

The dollar was at 104.43 yen, down 0.2 percent from late U.S. trade Thursday. The dollar had improved to around 104.62 just after the CPI report.

The euro was at $1.3270, up 0.1 percent from Thursday, but had dipped to $1.3229 after the report that showed the seasonally adjusted consumer price index rose 0.2 percent last month after increasing by 0.6 percent in October.

The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, also rose 0.2 percent, matching October's increase, the Commerce Department's report showed.

<snip>

"Foreign investors will likely close their books by Monday and resume building positions after Christmas," he said. "Profit-taking, especially on the euro long positions, is expected to support the dollar until Christmas, but the euro is likely to resume its climb next year."

...more...

[UpInArms]

3. Today's CPI Reports

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38338.3543073727-830071925&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

U.S. Nov. CPI up 0.2%, core rate up 0.2%

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) - U.S. consumer price inflation moderated in November after a sharp rise in the prior month, the Labor Department said Friday. The seasonally adjusted consumer price index rose 0.2 percent in November after rising 0.6 percent in October, the department said. The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, rose 0.2 percent for the second consecutive month in November. Both were in line with expectations, according to a survey of economists by CBS MarketWatch. Real average weekly earnings fell by 0.4 percent in November.

8:29am 12/17/04 U.S. NOV. CPI UP 0.2% AS EXPECTED

8:29am 12/17/04 U.S. NOV. CORE CPI UP 0.2% AS EXPECTED

8:29am 12/17/04 U.S. NOV. REAL EARNINGS DOWN 0.4%

[UpInArms]

4. 10:11 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,688.95 -16.69 (-0.16%)
Nasdaq 2,147.92 +1.77 (+0.08%)
S&P 500 1,198.16 -5.05 (-0.42%)
10-Yr Bond 42.15 +0.31 (+0.74%)

NYSE Volume 561,563,000
Nasdaq Volume 518,017,000

10:00AM: Equities continue to trade with a tinge of caution, as investors await Pfizer shares to officially open after it warned about the safety of Celebrex... Dow component Pfizer (PFE), which had been conducting two long-term cancer prevention trials concerning its painkiller Celebrex, has announced that it found an increased cardiovascular risk in one of the two trials... The Dow has hovered in positive territory, but it is widely anticipated that the index will fall when Pfizer, and competitor Merck (MRK), open for trading... NYSE Adv/Dec 1028/1348, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1215/1222

9:40AM: Market opens a bit lower despite comforting inflation data, but remains mixed in the early going... The Dept. of Labor released November CPI and core CPI readings of +0.2%, in line with economists' forecasts... The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, has held a rather steady trend of +0.2% over the last few months, which equates to a roughly 2.4% annual rate of increase in the core CPI... That rate, roughly equal to the current year-over-year rate of 2.2%, suggests that inflation remains tame but also justifies the Fed's most recent 1/4% rate hike...

9:00AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -1.3. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +0.5. Futures indications pull back a bit but still suggest a relatively flat open for the indices... Family Dollar (FDO) just reported earnings of $0.33 per share, in line with analysts' forecasts

8:34AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +0.9. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +4.0. Futures trade improves somewhat indicating a flat to slightly higher open for the cash market as November CPI and core CPI come in at +0.2%, respectively, in line with economists' forecasts...

[UpInArms]

8. 11:16 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,680.45 -25.19 (-0.24%)
Nasdaq 2,145.21 -0.94 (-0.04%)
S&P 500 1,196.88 -6.33 (-0.53%)
10-Yr Bond 42.03 +0.19 (+0.45%)

NYSE Volume 896,878,000
Nasdaq Volume 853,098,000

11:00AM: Stocks trade in split fashion as market internals continue to denote a slightly bearish bias... Decliners have outpaced advancers on the NYSE by a 16 to 12 margin while declining issues on the Nasdaq have held a marginal edge over advancing issues... However, huge volumes - nearly 800 mln shares already changing hands on both the Big Board and the Composite - has been a focal point this morning as today marks quadruple witching options expiration...

The quarterly event, in which futures and options (both index and individual) all expire at the same time, has led to recent volatility over the past couple of days and is expected to keep trading very active throughout the session...NYSE Adv/Dec 1281/1664, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1347/1405

10:30AM: Major indices showing broad-based weakness, with the Dow falling from its best levels as Pfizer opens for trading... Shares of Pfizer (PFE 24.18 -4.80) have fallen more than 17% after a study showed increased risk of heart damage related to its drug Celebrex, and the news has ignited significant selling interest throughout the drug sector (-4.2%)... Other areas under pressure include technology, with the bulk of the losses being felt in the computer hardware group (-2.0%)...

Homebuilding, retail, and financial have also traded lower while transportation, telecom service, energy and biotech have posted modest gains...NYSE Adv/Dec 1114/1723, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1215/1443

[UpInArms]

5. Crude tops $45 to trade at a more than 2-week high

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38338.4255878704-830081196&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- Crude futures topped $45 a barrel in early New York trade for the first time in over two weeks as traders bet that prices will continue higher amid winter weather throughout much of the U.S. and lower OPEC output. January crude is up 82 cents at $45 a barrel after trading as high as $45.10. January heating oil is up 2.3 percent and unleaded gas is up 1.3 percent. January natural gas is up 4.6 percent at $7.32 per million British thermal units.

[UpInArms]

6. Plans for the Raw Deal

Domestic program's big goals
Bush ready for fights on Social Security, tax code, tort law

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/c/a/2004/12/17/MNGARADH4M1.DTL

Washington -- President Bush, in closing a two-day White House economic conference Thursday that outlined an ambitious domestic policy agenda, declared: "I like to confront problems."

And problems he will find as he swings for the bleachers with a plan for a fundamental overhaul of Social Security that promises a Washington brawl rivaling any domestic policy fight of the past two decades.

The fight will pit Democrats bent on preserving the New Deal's cornerstone social insurance program against a president and his allies who insist on introducing private ownership with personal investment accounts similar to a 401(k).

On top of that, Bush promises to simplify the tax code, a briar patch of special interests, to enact changes in tort law that have languished for two decades and to make permanent the sweeping tax cuts of his first term while cutting the $400 billion-plus budget deficit and conducting a hugely expensive war in Iraq.

<snip>

"One of my strong beliefs is that all public policy, to the extent possible, ought to encourage ownership in America," Bush said. "I believe in owning things."

...more...

Are we going to have *Co owning us?

[JNelson6563]

9. Old retail wisdom

You break it you own it. I guess the trained chimp owns Iraq.

Ugh.

Julie

[JNelson6563]

10. High noon update

Dow 10,650.73 -54.91 (-0.51%)
Nasdaq 2,140.90 -5.25 (-0.24%)
S&P 500 1,194.37 -8.84 (-0.73%)
10-Yr Bond 4.215% +0.031

Getting a little dark. S&P running ahead of the DOW it seems. More gains in the 10 yr yield. I'm thinking of stocking up the bunker.

;-)

Julie

[MARALE]

11. 1:30 Update

http://finance.yahoo.com/mo


1:30PM: Stocks continue to run in place in negative territory as buyers remain a reluctant bunch... Fueling some of the broad-based selling pressure has been a more than 3% rise in crude oil futures ($45.68/bbl +$1.50)... The February crude contract, which had surpassed $46/bbl midday, has been on the rise all morning as below normal temperatures throughout the US, particularly in the Northeast, has increased demand...

Concerns about Russian oil production, following reports that Russia will auction off oil company Yukos' main production unit over the weekend, despite a US block order, has also helped push the commodity higher... NYSE Adv/Dec 1195/2013, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1176/1858

1:00PM: Little change in the past half hour, as the major indices continue to chalk up losses... Also under pressure have been treasuries... Despite opening higher, bonds showed some modest selling pressure after November CPI data, which matched economicsts' expectations, suggested inflation was under control... Much of the recent selling, however, has been related to a shadow effect from weakness in international government bonds...

[54anickel]

12. White House May Pick Bernanke ACK!!!!

Fed Governor Would Chair President's Economic Council

Whew, for a moment I thought he was up for Greenspin's chair!

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A6001-2004Dec16.html

The White House, seeking a strong economic team to craft and sell key features of its second-term agenda, is considering appointing Federal Reserve Board member Ben S. Bernanke to be chairman of the president's Council of Economic Advisers, officials confirmed yesterday.

Bernanke, 51, former chairman of Princeton University's economics department, would succeed N. Gregory Mankiw, who is on leave from Harvard University and expected to return there early next year.

One administration aide, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, cautioned that the process is at an early stage. The Fed and Bernanke declined to comment on the possibility, which was reported in the Wall Street Journal on Monday. A White House spokeswoman also declined to comment on speculation about Mankiw's successor, noting that he has not yet resigned.

Bush appointed Bernanke to the Fed two years ago. The highly regarded economist has focused most of his research on monetary policy -- adjusting the money supply through the availability of credit, which in turn affects the rates of inflation and economic growth.

snip>

If appointed, Bernanke would be one of the top officials involved in explaining and selling the president's economic policies to Congress, Wall Street and the media.

Bernanke has developed a reputation at the Fed as a good communicator of the central bank's thinking and policy, an analyst said.

more...

[54anickel]

13. It only looks crazy in hindsight

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid={123cb067-ffcf-4f32-8aac-4a64393752f1}&siteid=mktw&dist=SignInArchive&archive=true¶m=archive&garden=&minisite=

SAN DIEGO (CBS.MW) -- They will not ring a bell to signal when this craziness is about to end. It will just end -- like that. Click of a finger. Like it did in 2000 and like it does in every bubble.

A week ago I wrote a column that asked the question, "Have investors learned nothing?" (See column.) Based on the performance of the wildest stocks in recent days, the answer is a very firm: NO.

Stocks of companies under investigation, earning no money or with histories of stumbling fundamentals are moving higher as if interest rates are falling and happy days are here again. (I'm purposely avoiding naming names because the list is simply too long and I've already heard from enough loonies after the last story to last a lifetime.)

Why is this happening? Everybody has an explanation, but the one I buy into is that you're seeing a year-end "buy anything as long as it's rising" mentality take hold to make portfolios look as good as possible. That's probably causing some short-sellers -- seeing their year disappear in a few days -- exit positions. That, in turn, is exaggerating the moves upward.

The result, in the end, is that short-sellers will have yet another miserable year -- giving up gains at the very end of their 12-month payment cycle. (For those who are cheering the demise of short-sellers, beware of what you wish for: remember, without short-sellers, stocks fall in a vacuum.)

snip>

It's so bad out there that almost everybody seems to have missed one of the most bizarre stories of recent days: Alan Murray's story in the Wall Street Journal about how business groups, such as the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, are quietly working behind the scenes to get the SEC chairman fired.

According to the story, "The groups argue that the post-Enron crackdown on big business has gone too far, and now threatens to hurt the economy by discouraging companies from taking risks. Their hope is to replace Mr. Donaldson with a business executive who has a reputation for integrity, but also understands the problems that the corporate crackdown has caused for executives and their boards of directors. Mr. Donaldson, they argue, doesn't."

more...

[54anickel]

20. 3 Years After Enron, Resistance to New Rules Grows

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/12/17/business/17norris.html?adxnnl=1&oref=login&adxnnlx=1103317337-sQhtSEGg1nDjXsksSM6ssQ

snip>

There are few more crucial issues for the S.E.C. than the rules governing how stocks are traded in the United States. Will the market power of giant institutional investors take precedence over the interests of smaller investors? Will public markets provide enough liquidity for institutional trading? Which markets - most notably the electronic exchanges or the New York Stock Exchange - will prosper? How different should the Nasdaq market be from the Big Board?

It took nerve for William H. Donaldson, the S.E.C. chairman, to wade into those issues, which previous chairmen had been unwilling or unable to address in detail. His action helped force the Big Board to move to faster electronic trading for some orders, a major accomplishment.

But now the rulemaking effort has slowed, and Mr. Donaldson's plan to pass a rule this week was stalled as opponents gained one more delay in an effort to rouse opposition. A Republican commissioner, Paul S. Atkins, was critical of the proposal, saying the commission should get out of the way and let competition among markets benefit everyone. He did not address how to avoid having such competition benefit brokers rather than their customers. The S.E.C. is seeking more public comment.

The issue that is arousing passion is called a trade-through rule. It is supposed to assure that if an investor offers to buy a share for $25, no stock will be sold for less than that until his order is filled. To Mr. Donaldson, there is a need to protect investors who place such orders and provide liquidity to the markets.

It appears that Mr. Donaldson and the two Democratic commission members, including Mr. Goldschmid, are ready to pass such a rule and extend it to all markets that offer very fast execution of orders. The big remaining question is whether it will apply only to orders at the best price in each market, or to orders below that price as well. That extension could cause unintended consequences, and there may be a case for not moving that far at the beginning. Action, however, is needed.

more...

[54anickel]

14. U.S. 10-Year Treasuries Fall After Consumer Price Index Rises

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=aTsY_t4iCKpw&refer=us

Dec. 17 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. Treasury notes fell after a measure of inflation rose enough to keep investors speculating the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates for the sixth straight time in February.

The benchmark 10-year security fell for the second straight day after the Labor Department's consumer price index rose 3.5 percent in November from a year earlier, the biggest gain since mid-2001. The data surprised some investors just three days after the Fed said inflation remains tame.

Today's data ``are an indication pricing power is coming back into the market,'' said David Ging, a government bond strategist at Credit Suisse First Boston in New York. ``As pricing power or the threat of inflation comes back into the market, (10-year notes and bonds are) going to take the brunt of the selling pressure.''

Inflation erodes the value of a bond's fixed payments. The 4 1/4 percent note maturing August 2014 fell about 3/8, or $3.75 per $1,000 face amount, to 100 5/32 at 9:14 a.m. in New York, according to bond broker Cantor Fitzgerald LP. The yield rose 5 basis points to 4.23 percent. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point. The yield fell to a five-week low of about 4.07 percent after the Fed said Dec. 14 that inflation is ``well contained.''

Today's report also showed core consumer prices are up 2.2 percent in the 12 months ended in November. Core prices rose 0.2 percent from the prior month, the same as in October.

A core rate above 2 percent is a ``relatively sharp and abrupt move'' up from earlier in the year, said Christopher Sullivan, chief investment officer in New York at the United Nations Federal Credit Union, with $2 billion in fixed-income assets. ``The Treasury market has to build in a number of further rate hikes,'' with 10-year yields likely reaching 4.5 percent in the first quarter, he said.

more...

[54anickel]

15. 3:30 numbers and blather

Dow 10,666.03 -39.61 (-0.37%)
Nasdaq 2,141.26 -4.89 (-0.23%)
S&P 500 1,196.40 -6.81 (-0.57%)
10-yr Bond 4.209% +0.025
30-yr Bond 4.838% +0.014
NYSE Volume 1,822,635,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,850,871,000

3:30PM : Equities remain on the defensive heading into the last half hour of trading as market breadth remains bearish... The bulk of notable earnings next week will come out of the technology and financial groups, sectors than comprise more than one third of the S&P 500's total market cap... The only S&P constituent reporting quarterly results on Monday though will be Jabil Circuit (JBL 25.55 -0.59), as the majority of earnings reports will be out on Tuesday and Wednesday... The only economic data out Monday will be the Leading Indicators report for November (consensus +0.2%)...NYSE Adv/Dec 1558/1746, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1355/1741
3:00PM : Market rebounds some but not nearly enough to make a significant change in the standings, as the bulk of sector leadership remains negative... On the Dow, PFE (25.67 -3.31) and MRK (31.67 -0.12), which combine for more than 4% of the index's weighting, have been just two of the 23 components trading lower... Blue chips offsetting some of the weakness have been Boeing (BA 53.25 +1.17), which closed a $1.0 bln deal with Etihad Airways for five Boeing 777-300ER airplanes, while United Technologies (UTX 104.11 +2.11) and Verizon Communications (VZ 41.06 +0.66) have also held onto gains...NYSE Adv/Dec 1383/1908, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1296/1796

2:30PM : Major indices continue to trade sideways at lower levels showing little direction in afternoon trading... Meanwhile, Warren Resources (WRES 9.02 +1.52) has held onto gains in excess of 20% on its first day of trading... The debut of the onshore oil and gas exploration company has concluded the busiest week for IPOs in more than four years, as more than 20 deals went public... To date, more than $45 bln has been raised from 252 new offerings in 2004, surpassing approximately $14 bln raised last year from 80 new deals...NYSE Adv/Dec 1295/1969, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1217/1855

2:00PM : Not much conviction late in the day as the market averages cling to losses... The Pharmaceutical sector (-4.8%) remains underwater, with PFE (-13.6%) and LLY (-3.4%) leading the list of laggards, while Homebuilding (-2.2%), Casino/Gaming (-2.5%) and Electronic Manufacturing Services (-2.1%) hold steady at lower levels... Showing signs of strength have been Footwear +6.0%, on the heels of NKE's (+6.5%) strong quarter, Hotels +1.0%, Aerospace/Defense (+0.7%) and Oil/Gas Drilling Services (+0.7%)...NYSE Adv/Dec 1275/1948, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1208/1836

1:30PM : Stocks continue to run in place in negative territory as buyers remain a reluctant bunch... Fueling some of the broad-based selling pressure has been a more than 3% rise in crude oil futures ($45.68/bbl +$1.50)... The February crude contract, which had surpassed $46/bbl midday, has been on the rise all morning as below normal temperatures throughout the US, particularly in the Northeast, has increased demand...

Concerns about Russian oil production, following reports that Russia will auction off oil company Yukos' main production unit over the weekend, despite a US block order, has also helped push the commodity higher... NYSE Adv/Dec 1195/2013, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1176/1858

1:00PM : Little change in the past half hour, as the major indices continue to chalk up losses... Also under pressure have been treasuries... Despite opening higher, bonds showed some modest selling pressure after November CPI data, which matched economicsts' expectations, suggested inflation was under control... Much of the recent selling, however, has been related to a shadow effect from weakness in international government bonds...

The combination of yesterday's unwinding-inspired sell off, this morning's CPI figures, international pressure on treasury prices and a $6.37 bln fall-off in implied foreign central bank investments has resulted in a general bearish sentiment for bonds throughout the day... The 10-year note currently yields 4.21%, off 8 ticks...NYSE Adv/Dec 1242/1935, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1225/1780

Advances & Declines
NYSE Nasdaq
Advances 1558 (45%) 1359 (41%)
Declines 1754 (50%) 1742 (53%)
Unchanged 139 (4%) 148 (4%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Up Vol* 608 (35%) 747 (41%)
Down Vol* 1105 (63%) 1020 (56%)
Unch. Vol* 22 (1%) 30 (1%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New Hi's 166 106
New Lo's 23 9

[54anickel]

16. Experts grim on economy: Descriptions of long-term trap becoming

increasingly accepted

http://business.bostonherald.com/businessNews/view.bg?articleid=59118

Local economists are getting gloomier about bulging U.S. trade and budget deficits that they say affect the long-term value of everything from homes to cars to retirement funds.

They said this week's announcement that the nation's trade deficit in October hit a record $55.46 billion is yet another sign of major long-term problems facing the economy and American consumers.

``The pain will hit at some point,'' said David Moss, a professor at Harvard Business School. ``A financial crisis is unlikely, but I would say it's a delicate time.''

Yesterday, the Treasury Department reported that foreigners' purchase of U.S. assets - including bonds, stocks and real estate - slowed to its lowest pace in a year in October, the result of growing unease about the heavy borrowing the United States is doing to shore up its financial accounts.

Foreign investment in the United States is key to offsetting the tens of billions of dollars flowing out each month as Americans snap up such imports as Chinese electronic gadgets, Japanese cars and Middle Eastern oil.

Without that foreign government reinvestment, the U.S. economy would become a virtual one-way funnel - with money streaming out of the country, reducing the overall net wealth of the nation, economists say.

more...

[54anickel]

17. US external deficit bulges to record, fear grows for dollar

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=1518&ncid=1518&e=1&u=/afp/20041216/bs_afp/useconomyaccount_041216222220

WASHINGTON (AFP) - The United States posted a record external deficit for the third quarter of 2004, exacerbating fears of a brutal dollar plunge.


The deficit in the current account -- trade in goods and services, investment returns and one-way financial transfers -- expanded to 164.7 billion dollars from 164.4 billion in the second quarter, the Commerce Department (news - web sites) said.


The deficit was unprecedented, but narrower than the 171-billion-dollar hole predicted by Wall Street economists.

The better-than-expected news helped the dollar gain ground, :eyes: pushing the euro down to 1.3244 dollars late in New York trade from 1.3393 the day before. Analysts, however, fretted over the longer term.

"I think it is very worrisome," said Wells Fargo Banks chief economist Sung Won Sohn.

"I think the outlook is going to get worse, not better," he warned. "I don't see this trend changing any time soon despite the sharp dollar depreciation," he said.


A breakdown showed:

more...

[54anickel]

18. Bad Day for Drug Companies and Patients

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/041217/health_pharmaceuticals_3.html

LONDON (Reuters) - Investors in pharmaceuticals were dealt a triple whammy on Friday as Pfizer Inc, AstraZeneca Plc and Eli Lilly and Co all shocked the market with bad news about key products.
Pfizer, the world's largest drugmaker, saw its stock fall as much as 17 percent after trial data for its popular arthritis drug Celebrex showed an increased risk of heart attack.

The medicine is of the same type as Merck & Co Inc's (NYSE:MRK - News) Vioxx, which was pulled from the market in September after tests showed it too posed a cardiovascular threat to patients.

Pfizer said it had no plans to recall Celebrex but investors feared there was mounting evidence that the danger seen with Vioxx may be common to all drugs in the so-called COX-2 class.

"This does not bode well for COX-2s in general," said Ira Loss, an analyst at Washington Analysis.

Reflecting the concerns, shares in GlaxoSmithKline Plc and Novartis AG, which are developing newer COX-2 medicines, also fell.

more...

[54anickel]

19. Brown urging US to bolster dollar

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4103639.stm

Gordon Brown is expected to warn world financial figures that the weak US dollar is hurting global economies when he begins a visit to America on Friday.

The chancellor is due to meet Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, and officials from the US treasury, World Bank and International Monetary Fund.

He will urge the US to set a strategy to strengthen the dollar.

snip>

"He wants America to deal with its substantial trade and budget deficits and he's urging the US government to set a clear path for dealing with the dollar's slide."

President George Bush has said that this is now an economic priority and that he will deal with America's deficits.

more...

[54anickel]

21. Fed calls for fiscal discipline

Hahahaha, sure thing. What was that I just posted the other day about the request for more "war money" will be nearly double what they projected? And FUCheney pushing to make tax cuts permanent?


http://money.cnn.com/2004/12/16/news/economy/fed_minutes.reut/index.htm

Members expect steady economic growth but worry about government spending, push for more savings.
December 16, 2004: 3:43 PM EST

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Policy-setting members of the U.S. Federal Reserve felt at their November meeting that the economy was poised for steady growth in 2005 but worried whether government spending will be brought under control.

"Members stressed the importance of fiscal discipline to facilitate a better balance between net national saving and investment and thereby promote an adjustment of the imbalance in the current account of the balance of payments," according to minutes of the Federal Open market Committee's Nov. 10 meeting, which were released on Thursday.

The FOMC said that, with the expiry of some expensing provisions in the tax code, the economy would get less fiscal stimulus next year but still foresaw growth "at a rate a bit above its longer-run potential," which is broadly taken to be around 3-1/2 percent a year.

"Looking forward, economic fundamentals appeared to be favorable for continued solid growth, and while the fiscal stimulus would abate next year, a flattening out of energy prices...would bolster economic expansion," the FOMC concluded.

Steady rate rises

more...

[54anickel]

22. Stock options must be expensed

http://www.usatoday.com/money/companies/regulation/2004-12-16-fasb-options_x.htm

After years of heated debate between high-tech companies and accountants, the head accounting rule-setting body Thursday declared all companies must subtract the cost of stock options from their earnings starting in mid-2005.

It's a massive blow for companies, mainly in Silicon Valley, which had been doling out lucrative stock options to employees and executives for decades but not counting them as a cost. It also requires investors to rethink how they value companies: The new rule will affect everything from price-earnings ratios to earnings estimates.

Accountants, thinking companies had been enjoying a loophole that understated their costs, applauded the decision. The new rule will have "a big impact, but it's the right move," says Ed Nusbaum, CEO of accounting firm Grant Thornton.

The rule change, approved by the Financial Accounting Standards Board, represents a massive shift because it:

more...

[54anickel]

23. Assessing What Will Now Happen to Fannie Mae

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/12/17/business/17fallout.html?adxnnl=1&oref=login&adxnnlx=1103283589-kWv5ijpf1V8PNqX3g9Juxg

WASHINGTON, Dec. 16 - Fannie Mae, the housing-finance giant, for years has fended off critics who contend that the company is too big, too powerful and too risky. But the Securities and Exchange Commission's Wednesday ruling, that Fannie Mae had seriously breached accounting rules, could touch off a chain reaction that results in stricter government controls, legislation limiting its growth and possibly even a change in top management.

Democratic and Republican lawmakers alike demanded on Thursday that senior executives, including the chief executive, Franklin D. Raines, return tens of millions of dollars in bonuses and other compensation that they had earned based on inaccurate financial statements that the company issued from 2001 until this year.

Fannie Mae's board also met on Thursday to be briefed on the S.E.C.'s order that it restate earnings and declare losses of as much as $9 billion as a result of the accounting violations. On Capitol Hill, lawmakers vowed to swiftly overhaul the oversight of the federally chartered company.

The board members concluded their unscheduled meeting early Thursday evening without deciding whether to keep or remove Mr. Raines after the announcement by the S.E.C.'s top accountant that the company had violated two rules. That decision will now force the company to restate its earnings and take steps to significantly raise its capital level. Three board members, joined by Mr. Raines and other regulators, had attended a briefing at the commission by its chief accountant on Wednesday shortly before he announced his decision, people at the meeting said.

But people involved in the inquiry said that board members know that they cannot let the uncertainty hanging over Mr. Raines linger, for the sake of both the company and the markets, and predicted that a decision would be made soon.

more...

[54anickel]

24. Investors Got Asia Right in 2004. And 2005?:

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000039&refer=columnist_pesek&sid=aJarHyqabhiQ

Dec. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Anyone looking for a reality check on Asia could do worse than come to the scene of the crime, so to speak. That would be here in Bangkok, where this region's worst financial crisis in decades was set in motion.

Thailand didn't cause the meltdown, though its currency devaluation in July 1997 marked the beginning of the end of the double-digit growth rates investors came to expect from Asia. In the seven-plus years since, Thailand's economy and markets have often been the vanguard of investors' sentiment toward Asia.

Scenes in this spirited city of 8 million do indeed say much about Asia's strong post-crisis revival. So strong is Asia's ninth- biggest economy these days that Thailand's central bank just unexpectedly raised its key interest rate to 2 percent from 1.75 percent for the third time in four months to curb inflation.

Wandering Bangkok's streets, it's not hard to see why. While there is still considerable poverty, increasing numbers of twenty- somethings linger in trendy downtown cafes, nursing cappuccinos or French wine. Fashionably dressed Thais saunter from boutique to boutique shopping for the latest styles from Louis Vuitton and Gucci. And hotel lounges are again abuzz with foreign investors on the lookout for opportunities.

It's a striking contrast from just a few years ago, when Thailand, like much of Southeast Asia, lay coughing and wheezing amid Asia's financial crisis.

`White Hot'

more...

[54anickel]

25. German Business Confidence Rises to Eight-Month High

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000087&sid=a5J9TOo.ScNE&refer=top_world_news

Dec. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Business confidence in Germany, Europe's largest economy, unexpectedly rose to an eight-month high in December after oil prices retreated from a record and signs increased that domestic demand is recovering.

snip>

Expectations Improve

Ifo said business confidence increased in all industries surveyed. Executives said current business improved and they were also more optimistic about the next six months. An index measuring future expectations rose to 96.4 from 94.3.

``The strength of the domestic economy, which was a weak spot, is overcompensating for the stronger euro,'' said Gernot Nerb, an economist at the Ifo institute, in an interview. ``Export expectations are slightly more unfavorable, but not by much.''

Crude oil prices have fallen to $44.18 per barrel in New York yesterday, from a record $55.67 on Oct. 25. They're still up one third from a year earlier. German retail sales rose at the fastest pace this year in November, a sign consumer spending may be recovering after more than a year of stagnation, the Bloomberg purchasing managers index showed last week.

Porsche AG, Europe's most profitable carmaker, said on Dec. 8 it's ``confident'' about sales growth in the current fiscal year after four-month revenue rose 4 percent on greater demand for 911 sports cars and Cayenne sport-utility vehicles. Altana AG, Germany's fifth-biggest drugmaker, said its chemical unit will have ``double-digit'' earnings and sales growth this year.

more...

[54anickel]

26. Even Hijackers Shun Dollars

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/texashedge/texashedge121704.html

It was reported that in Greece on Wednesday, two armed men hijacked a bus, threatening to blow it up with explosives unless their demands were met, one of which being a ransom payment of one million euros. Obviously, the actions of these hijackers are deplorable, but it demonstrates just how great the disdain is for the United States Dollar.

While we all read the headlines about how the Dollar has lost 50% of its value over the last two years, many financial reporters still don't seem to get it. They are reporting in terms of currency trading ranges where the real story is the coming paradigm shift where the Dollar will lose its status as the world's reserve currency. Jimmy Rogers, one of our favorite investment personalities, often explains that the best way to really understand what is going on in a country is to look at the black market. For example, many of our Russian-American acquaintances tell us that their Muscovite relatives are stashing euros under their mattresses instead of dollars. This may sound insignificant until you realize that many Russians (and other 3rd world citizens) do not trust local banks.

snip>

Just a few days ago, the South China Morning Post reported that Chinese upper and even middle class citizens are lining up in the streets of Beijing and Shanghai to exchange Dollar savings for gold bullion. Chinese citizens, whose Yuan is pegged to the Dollar (which produces negative real interest rates), are now seeking to diversify in the face of an increasing current account imbalance as well as a likely revaluation in the coming years.

Because foreigners are much better acquainted with foreign exchange rates and currency movement, they are usually way ahead of Americans in this category. The sounding of the Dollar alarm by the French was what led to Richard Nixon's Dollar devaluation. Thirty years later, it seems that the Dollar alarm is being cranked up again by the Asians, Europeans, Arabs and just about anyone who doesn't watch CNBC. Speaking of CNBC, it was funny to watch former General Electric CEO Jack Welch explain yesterday how more government borrowing will lead to growth and therefore a strong Dollar.

more...

[54anickel]

27. Thoughts on the US dollar, asset markets & current account

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/saville/saville121704.html

Flow of Funds

There were some interesting statistics in the latest quarterly "Flow of Funds" report issued by the Fed last week. The most interesting, as far as we were concerned, were the data on household net worth and foreign central bank holdings of US financial assets.

According to the above-mentioned report, foreign central bank holdings of US financial assets increased by $315B -- a 40% annualised rate -- during the first 9 months of this year. To put this amount into perspective, it is equivalent to about three-quarters of the total US trade deficit over the period in question.

So, does this mean that the US$ would have been much weaker if not for the yeoman-like efforts of these central banks?

Perhaps not, because although the foreign CBs have soaked up a lot of the dollars associated with the US trade deficit the fact that they have channeled these dollars back into US financial assets -- mostly Treasury and Agency debt -- means that they haven't actually taken any dollars out of circulation. Rather, what they have done is re-cycle a huge pile of dollars and, in the process, dramatically reduce the supply of US bonds. Therefore, they probably haven't done a lot to support the dollar even though this was their goal, but their actions have almost certainly resulted in lower long-term US interest rates and higher US asset prices than would otherwise have been the case. They have, in other words, unwittingly helped to promote US inflation and widen the US current account deficit.

The Flow of Funds report also notes that household net worth rose by $546B during the third quarter of this year; so although some analysts have repeatedly warned that the US consumer was 'tapped out' the reality is that US consumers, as a group, were much LESS closer to being 'tapped out' at the end of the third quarter than they were three months earlier.

In our opinion, those who forecast that a retrenching by US consumers will create problems for the US economy and the US asset markets are putting the cart in front of the horse. To be specific, it is very unlikely that US consumers will cut back on their spending and ramp-up their rate of saving as long as household net worth is increasing at a robust rate. Instead, it is more reasonable to expect that a downturn in asset prices and a consequential reduction in household net worth will LEAD downturns in consumer borrowing and spending.

more...

[54anickel]

28. What post is gold hitched to? (gold-bugy, but gtrat charts)

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/petch/petch121704.html

I first want to state the AMEX Gold BUGS Index is still in the running correction. Refer to this thread to follow the "You are HERE" charts" to see the running correction highlighted well over one year ago.

There are numerous little observations to confirm the count is accurate and will continue to follow the pattern with indiscreet waves that are impossible to predict along the path. The recent impulsive wave completed in early October had an extended fifth wave, suggesting a decline below 200 would not occur (it did not). The true bottom of the HUI is at 35 and not 60. To confirm this, the recent impulse just mentioned fell short of 258 and would have been a failed wave <5}. This would imply a decline all the way back down to 35. This is not going to happen. The US dollar is still on course to 78-80. I am not going to list the counts. Instead, an editorial is presented to discuss what gold is hitched to.[br />
Jim Dines once said gold was the hitch of everything in the Universe (I hope I got that right). This editorial portion is simply going to examine charts and present a case for why gold is bullish. I am not going to look at oil, since the one chart presented three weeks ago clearly shows a hyperinflationary blow off. The currency and gold case for this will be presented. Note: all charts shown below are from www.thechartstore.com.

The chart below shows the PPI since 1948. The decline since 1984 has been in a declining channel. Recently the PPI broke out of the channel. This occurrence is a sign of inflation that soon will be passed on to the consumer. The first major inflationary spike in the PPI in 1975 occurred 5 years before gold spiked. This is so typical of human behaviour. A large ground breaking event is needed to arouse the awareness of the masses. Once a larger increase in inflation is felt, that will be the trigger for gold. A spike up, and down is likely, followed by a gradual decline. Based upon modeling, 2010-2012 will see the price of gold go parabolic. The price of gold will rise nicely over the next 6 years, but the blow-off phase where the major profits are made lies around the time frame described.

more...

[54anickel]

29. PART 2: A monetary coup d'etat (Very long)

http://atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/FL17Dj01.html

The nature of money has been a controversial issue since the founding of the United States. The founding fathers recognized that the people's power to issue money was fundamental to the functioning of democracy, while the Federalists led by Alexander Hamilton advocated the need of a national bank controlled by the moneyed elite to support the development of the newborn nation's economy. Unlike Thomas Jefferson, who wanted to create a new, revolutionary democratic nation, Hamilton wanted to build a powerful new nation that would rival Britain, its former oppressor. Hamilton turned the American Revolution from a struggle to form a new democratic society as envisaged by Jefferson toward an oligarchic secession from Britain. Yet Hamilton's national bank was partially state-owned, quite unlike the Federal Reserve System, which is wholly owned by private banks that have usurped the people's sovereign power to create money.

The first national bank, modeled after the Bank of England, which had been instrumental in the emergence of the British Empire, was established by Federalists as part of a nation-building system proposed by Alexander Hamilton, the first secretary of the US Treasury, who realized that the new nation could not grow and prosper in a competitive world without the full application of sovereign credit with a sound financial system mediated through a national bank chartered, partially owned and fully controlled by the central government. The first national bank in the US was the Bank of the United States (BUS), which was founded in 1791 and operated for 20 years, until 1811. A second Bank of the United States (BUS2) was founded in 1816 and operated also for 20 years until 1836.

The national-bank charter was approved by Congress and signed into law by president George Washington in 1791 when the federal government of the new nation was only three years old. The new Bank of the United States was to handle the finances of the federal government. It held the government's funds and dispensed sovereign credit through the issuing of notes that would circulate as legal tender. The national bank was to maintain an adequate supply of stable money and extend sovereign credit to support an industrial policy to promote national economic expansion without having to succumb to foreign, mostly British, financial domination.

To understand the thinking behind Hamilton's proposal for a national bank, it is necessary to remember that the Treasury was restricted by law to limit its issuance of money to the coinage of gold and silver, and not to print paper money. According to the Quantity Theory of Money, specie (gold- or silver-backed) money was the only reliable currency, though it could be supplemented by banknotes fully and freely redeemable for gold or silver. Thus sovereign credit was limited by the amount of gold held by the Treasury and a national bank was needed to create money through partial reserve. Congress granted a 20-year charter for the BUS despite arguments by Jefferson that the constitution did not give Congress power to establish a national bank and the charge that the national bank was designed to favor mercantile interests over agrarian interests, and the rich over the common man, in the name of national interest. Jefferson believed that the path to a strong nation was through the cultivation of a strong citizenry of independent wealth, not a strong central government led by a financial elite who would control the nation's money supply for narrow sectional and class benefits at the expense of the general population.

The federal government subscribed one-fifth of the US$10 million capital of the BUS, with a loan of $2 million immediately advanced from the BUS to the government, with the remaining $8 million subscribed by private investors. The BUS acted as the exclusive fiscal agent for the government and also conducted commercial banking business. Despite being well managed and financially profitable, the BUS antagonized state-chartered banks and western frontier and southern agrarian interests, which formed a coalition that successfully blocked its rechartering in 1811.

more...

[54anickel]

30. In Praise of Shoddy Products

http://www.mises.org/fullstory.aspx?Id=1701

The average family will spend about $1000 on Christmas gifts, and much of what we buy might be described as rather shoddy. It is prone to break and wear out. Kids' gifts might not last the day. Our new clothes might not make it to next season. Our electronic stuff might break down in a year. Our kitchen gadgets might snap and break. Household gifts of all sorts just aren't what they used to be. The spines of our books will snap, our yard equipment will need replacing by summer's end, and our tools will break rather than last generations as our granddad's did.

Many commentators have noted that kitchen appliances, and many other things, just don't seem to last the way they used to. In the old days, you got a blender as a wedding gift and your daughter would use it when she came home from college. These days we are lucky if a blender or hand mixer lasts a few years. The same seems true of washer and dryers, lawn mowers and edgers, clothing, electronic equipment, and even homes.

Some people blame China, others Wal-Mart, others the web, and still others just think it is a sign of the times when civilization is sinking into a hole in preparation for Armaggedon. Regardless, that this trend is awful is rarely questioned. So let us question away.

Paradoxically, this is not a bad thing but a sign of rising wealth. It is a sign of prosperity that we prefer the new to the repaired. As consumers, we show a preference for throwing away and replacing rather than being stuck with a dated gizmo or unfashionable item. What's more, our preference for shoddiness over durability is not wasteful at all, but merely a reflection of the market's ability to adjust to consumer demand with resource supply. In making ever more shoddy products manufacturers are doing what is best for all of us.

more...

[54anickel]

31. Closin, - blather writers were quick again today

Dow 10,649.92 -55.72 (-0.52%)
Nasdaq 2,135.20 -10.95 (-0.51%)
S&P 500 1,194.22 -8.99 (-0.75%)
10-yr Bond 4.209% +0.025
30-yr Bond 4.838% +0.014
NYSE Volume 2,483,830,000
Nasdaq Volume 2,428,277,000

Close Dow -55.72 at 10649.92, S&P -8.99 at 1194.22, Nasdaq -10.95 at 2135.20: Broad-based selling interest prompted by negative news in the drug sector set a bearish tone that never reversed course, in spite of comforting inflation data... Pfizer (PFE 25.89 -3.09), which was halted at the open after it said one of two cancer trials linked to its painkiller Celebrex showed increased risk of heart damage, was the largest factor adding to the overall negative bias... The warning sent a ripple effect through the market as more than 270 million shares of the world's largest drug maker exchanged hands, accounting for 10% of the entire volume on the NYSE...
The sell off took competitor Merck (MRK 31.59 -0.20), another Dow component, down with it, and kept buyers reluctant to hold stocks heading into the weekend... A 7% decline in drug maker AstraZeneca (AZN 37.12 -3.09), after its lung cancer drug Iressa failed to show significant survival benefits in patients, didn't help matters either as the drug sector (-3.0%) got hammered... Quadruple witching options expiration activity also prompted strong market activity across the indices, as volumes on both the NYSE and the Nasdaq topped 1.0 bln shares by noon and traded more than 4.8 bln shares combined...

Meanwhile, the November core consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.2% (consensus +0.2%), compared to a 0.2% rise in October... Even though the data showed no major swings in any of the categories and confirmed that inflation was under control, any signs of bullishness were hard to find... When it was all said and done, virtually every sector closed lower... Homebuilding (1.2%) stocks continued to lose ground after touching 52-week highs on Wednesday while technology was weak across the board, with hardware (-3.3%) and disk drive (-1.4%) leading the way to the downside...

New FASB rules forcing companies to start expensing stock options in mid-2005 was another catalyst that left investors wondering if such a mandate will limit the ability of many technology names to entice and keep employees in the future... Retail, financial, utility and energy were also lower, with the latter failing to take advantage of a 4.8% surge in crude oil prices ($46.05/bbl +$1.87) as an anticipated U.S. cold spell could erode already low winter fuel inventories...

One area recovering lost ground, however, was transportation, which lost 0.7% yesterday after FedEx's (FDX 99.25 +1.54) Q2 (Nov) earnings fell short of forecasts... Footwear, on the heels of strong earnings from Nike (NKE 91.79 +5.89), enjoyed gains while hotel, aero/defense, and telecom service also closed higher... After a huge sell off yesterday that knocked yields on the 10-year note down to 4.18%, bonds opened higher... But after the CPI data came in as expected, the market sold off again with added selling interest in international government bonds and the $6.37 bln fall-off in implied foreign central bank treasury investments... Supply overhang stemming from the busiest week for IPOs in more than four years as more than 20 deals went public... NYSE Adv/Dec 1600/1714, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1545/1592

3:30PM : Equities remain on the defensive heading into the last half hour of trading as market breadth remains bearish... The bulk of notable earnings next week will come out of the technology and financial groups, sectors than comprise more than one third of the S&P 500's total market cap... The only S&P constituent reporting quarterly results on Monday though will be Jabil Circuit (JBL 25.55 -0.59), as the majority of earnings reports will be out on Tuesday and Wednesday... The only economic data out Monday will be the Leading Indicators report for November (consensus +0.2%)...NYSE Adv/Dec 1558/1746, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1355/1741

Advances & Declines
NYSE Nasdaq
Advances 1650 (47%) 1545 (47%)
Declines 1672 (48%) 1592 (48%)
Unchanged 149 (4%) 139 (4%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Up Vol* 846 (36%) 945 (39%)
Down Vol* 1450 (62%) 1414 (58%)
Unch. Vol* 39 (1%) 51 (2%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New Hi's 190 125
New Lo's 23 9



And the buck headed back down:

Last trade 82.09 Change -0.34 (-0.41%)

Settle 82.16 Settle Time 15:38

Open 82.32 Previous Close 82.50

High 82.54 Low 82.01

30-min delayed quote.

Have a great weekend everyone :hi:

[54anickel]

32. Where'd everyone go today? Sure was a quiet watch!

Hope all is going well for everybody.

Meanwhile, I had to slip this one in. As I said early, THIS could get interesting.

Update 7: Russia Rejects U.S. Injunction Over Yukos

http://www.forbes.com/home/feeds/ap/2004/12/17/ap1719893.html

Russia pledged on Friday to ignore a U.S. court ban on the looming auction of oil giant Yukos' key production unit, while a consortium of Western banks reportedly put on hold billions of dollars in credit for the state-run Russian gas company that was expected to buy the unit.

A day after U.S. Bankruptcy Judge Letitia Clark granted Yukos an injunction barring the Russian government from auctioning the Yuganskneftegaz unit, Russian officials said the ruling was irrelevant on Russian soil and promised the auction would go ahead on Sunday.

"The sale of Yuganskneftegaz is an internal matter for Russia," Prime Minister Mikhail Fradkov was quoted as saying by Russian news agencies.

Earlier, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said U.S. court decision would have no legal force in Russia, saying "someone wanted to drum up tension and put the investment climate in Russia in doubt."

Lawyers and analysts have said there are no agreements between Russia and America that could make the decision enforceable on Russian soil.

snip>

Russia's state-owned natural gas monopoly Gazprom is expected to win the auction, making it - and by default, the Russian government - one of the biggest oil players in Russia virtually overnight.

more...

[salin]

33. Please note:

I am rarely able to participate during the day (while the thread is active) - but often search to find the day's thread at night. Not just the "start v. finish" - but the commentary and related stories that get linked to the thread.

Many thanks from one of the many "silent" readers of this daily thread.

:toast:

[54anickel]

34. Thanks Salin, on behalf of all the Marketeers - the regulars, the

occassionals and the "lurkers". It's always nice to be reassured we're not "talking" to ourselves on days like this.

Everyone is so busy these days, with the holidays, job searching, job starting (hopefully Ozy!) and plain old trying to make it thru another day under Beezlebush.

Thanks for posting! :hi:

[salin]

35. The thanks

go to you all - for these interesting discussions. Many thanks!

:hi:

[Theres-a]

36. thanks

i always read this thread.alot of it is greek to me,but i believe you more than the tv,if that makes sense..

[54anickel]

37. Thanks There-s a, and welcome to DU.

[mojavekid]

38. I follow thread this every day!

and I think it is one of the most enjoyable and informed threads on DU, in fact I can't think of another like it here...I would not dare weigh in as I am simply a novice, however I do want to say a big "THANK YOU!" to you all for keeping it going!!