U.S. may not be able to sustain Iraq troop levels

[Khephra]

U.S. may not be able to sustain Iraq troop levels
Rotation schedules and a limited number of soldiers mean a change is inevitable, experts say.
By Jonathan S. Landay
Inquirer Washington Bureau

WASHINGTON - President Bush appears to be planning to maintain the number of U.S. combat troops in Iraq at 130,000 for at least a year.

But the administration faces substantial hurdles in finding enough U.S. soldiers to keep such a ground force there much past March. Nearly three-quarters of the Army's 33 combat brigades are deployed in Afghanistan and in and around Iraq.

snip............

"That suggests that we are going to maintain the same number of troops or even slightly increase the number" over the next year, said Michael O'Hanlon, a military analyst at the Brookings Institution, a research institute.

A report Wednesday by the Congressional Budget Office, a research arm of Congress, said that under the Army's troop-rotation plan, it must begin reducing the number of troops in Iraq in March. By the end of 2004, even supplemented by Army National Guard units, only 38,000 to 64,000 U.S. combat troops will be available for deployment, it said.

Even if all the Army's active and reserve ground combat forces are used to support the occupation, with units rotating in and out every 12 months, the Pentagon could keep no more than 67,000 to 106,000 troops in Iraq over the long term, it said.

more...............

http://www.philly.com/mld/inquirer/news/front/6724923.htm

[saigon68]

1. OH YES THEY WILL ---ITS GOING TO GET DRAFTY IN HERE

I wonder if Rangel and the boys are still going to support a draft to keep the profits of Exxon-Mobil and Haliburton Safe.

[Journeyman]

2. And what's to keep them from changing. . .

"the Army's troop-rotation plan"?

[catmandu57]

3. I've said it before I'll say it again

It's just a matter of time before the draft is reinstated. I thought we'de see it before now.

[Solly Mack]

4. In June of 2004, the Iraqi deployment drops to a 6 month (rotational) tour

or so FORSCOM (General Ellis) claims.

Iraq will join Qatar and Kuwait on the ME rotation. SO...doing the math...

Accounting for the 3-6 month stabilization between tours(and that depends on length of tours)-but keeping in mind talks of reducing time spent for stabilization...and just going by this army post (the one I'm on)..where EVERY single Company is deployed....I'll see my husband 3 months out of every year at this rate.

Which means 9 months out of every year the troops will deploy...offset by hardship tours to Korea and parts of Europe...which both adds and subtracts from that time.

Not to factor in FTX and amber,red and green cycles..(day to day duties when not deployed)

The men and women of the military can not function under those conditions...they just can't. There is NO WAY (except maybe w/ a draft and contant stop/loss-stop/movements) that the US military can sustain those numbers...rentention is poor...even though they lie about the numbers..rentention just isn't there.